 Welcome to this first session of this event. Great to have so many of you with us. I'm Guy Johnson from Bloomberg. I'm going to take you through the next 45 minutes. So basically, what we're going to do over the next 45 minutes is take the temperature of the global economy to see how the patient is doing. Now, COVID has clearly had a massive impact, but the recovery from it is proving to be very uneven. This, in turn, of course, is impacting social and economic cohesion. So what should our priorities be? What should policy be-makers doing next? And are there efforts thus far enough at this stage? I should also try and draw your attention to the forum's latest chief economist survey, which is embedded in the dashboard for the new economy, which is published today, well worth a look. This is going to be an interactive session, and you can send questions via Zoom. That only works, though, if you're joining us via the top-link platform. So what is the outlook for economic growth, for revival, and for transformation? Let's bring in our panel, J.G. Shen, Vice-President and Chief Economist of JD-Digits and JD.com, Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist, joining us from HSBC. Eric Pirado, Chief Economist, the Inter-American Development Bank, and Catherine Mann, Global Chief Economist at Citi. So, J.G., let me start with you, first of all. Let's talk a little bit about what's happening in Asia. Is China experiencing a V-shaped recovery? Is it sustainable, given the lack of economic growth elsewhere, and will the rest of Asia follow? Okay, thank you very much. I think that the recovery in China is actually stronger than expected, especially exports, even though we are talking about a weaker global economy, but Chinese exports in September rose by 9.9%. So this also shows that this is very much a positive surprise. I see that the major products of Chinese exports are electronic products, because many families, people, workers are working from home and they need like a PC, mobile phones. I think China exports most of these goods globally. So actually they are benefiting from this. Also, home appliance and other consumer goods also do very well, in addition to these masks, type of medical goods. So actually it's very interesting to see this external environment actually become positive for Chinese exports. This is, of course, one positive surprise. The second one is the production had been very strong. In September, production grow by almost 7%. That's actually much stronger even than the same period of last year. And consumption has also picked up, but of course the less robust than the production. So in China there is an issue and the imbalance is excessive supply of goods. And good thing is the exports have been very strong. So the rest of the world is absorbing Chinese products. I think partly due to this pandemic still ongoing in many countries. So very much the production has been affected, but the Chinese government has been very good at containing the virus. So I think in nationwide the production and the normal life has resumed in China. I think that's a very much positive effect in the recovery stage. Okay, we'll come back to some of those points that you've been raising there in just a moment. I think definitely worth picking apart some of those issues. Janet, let me turn to you next. Europe certainly now experiencing a significant pickup in virus cases as we start to move into winter. We're seeing lockdowns. We saw yesterday Ireland announcing a very severe lockdown Wales, but restrictions are certainly being tightened across the continent. Are we in for a double dip recession? I suppose that depends on how you define double dip. I don't think we're going to get a dip of the same scale that we saw in the second quarter. It's clearly been a very different picture to China. We've had a very big bounce in GDP in the third quarter as economies reopened. But as you rightly point out we're seeing renewed rise in infections across Europe. Some countries more affected than others, France and Spain and now the UK as well, embarking on renewed restrictions. We're also seeing a rise in infections coming through even in the likes of Germany and in Italy as well. So the chances of a negative quarter of GDP in the fourth quarter is rising all the time. But we've got to remember the pace of improvement was already slowing. What we saw as economies initially started to reopen was the easiest part of the recovery. It was always going to be harder as we go through 2021. In particular, obviously, that the challenges facing labor markets which have been very much supported by a broad range of government policies. And now as a consequence of these measures the risk is that we get a renewed hit to consumer spending and that we do indeed get at least a modest contraction of GDP. It's not in our forecast at this point but the longer the restrictions remain in place the greater that likelihood comes through. But then we would expect a renewed reopening and a gradual resumption of growth into 2021. Okay, again, plenty to talk about there. Eric, let's talk about what is happening in South America, Latin America. The region went into this crisis with government finances not in the shape that others found themselves in. It is a tough position, therefore, to be in right now. What is your view thus far and what is your expectation for recovery from here? Thank you, Guy. I would say that in terms of your own words the patient is not in a good shape in Latin America and the Caribbean. Even before the COVID-19 crisis Latin America and the Caribbean was experiencing lackluster growth, only 0.1% in 2019 well below the war average of 2.9%. And we were having some pre-existent conditions in terms of political polarization, social unrest and also a very low productivity. So we entered this pandemic tunnel with a lot of problems. And as you pointed out, we're gonna have an issue in terms of how to deal with the pandemic itself but also how to recover. And one of the main problems in the future is that this patient is gonna be more indebted, poorer and also we're gonna have an impact on income inequality. So that means that for instance fiscal deficits are gonna increase and the average debt of the region could jump from almost 60% in 2019 to almost 80% in just two years. So I think we're gonna have a challenge in terms to find sources of productivity for the recovery in 2021. The IMF has been extremely positive in terms of thinking about a V recovery for the region. We are not so optimistic in that term. So we are thinking more in a U shape recovery in the future because we have to deal not only with scarce resources in terms of dealing with the pandemic impact on the economy but at the same time we have to think right now what type of reforms we have to implement to find higher growth. Okay, thank you very much, Catherine. Let me turn to you. The high frequency data and we'll get claims later on this week and other sources of data, the mobility data out of the United States starting to show that the recovery is tapering off. Is that your assessment as well? And as we enter the winter, do you think there is a likelihood again a bit like Europe that we start to see great lockdowns and that will have a meaningful impact again on the trajectory? So I think in general when we look at the higher frequency data people tend to look at the bounce off the bottom as Janet said and said, wow, this is the trajectory going forward. We're in a great recovery. That's actually not true. We don't see industrial production even getting back to where it was last year for quite some time. Not just in the United States, but this is a global story. The focus on retail sales as a metric of consumer demand I think is misguided consumer services even in a country like China. Consumer services are a very important component of domestic demand, of consumer demand. And of course that has been dramatically hit and has not recovered, has been very, very slow to even get off the bottom. One reason why this matters, this distinction between retail sales and consumer discretionary services is because of the labor intensity and the domestic intensity of consumer discretionary services. There are some of the things that you don't import whereas for retail sales, of course, imports can be a very important component of satisfying that retail sales. So from a data perspective, the bounce off the bottom has faded and this rotation out of consumer discretionary and into retail sales, we understand why it has happened, but it creates a fragility for domestic demand that we're concerned about. Again, globally, an aspect of the forecast that we think is very fragile is the observation that there are only two economies amongst ours that we examine 60 or so. Only two economies, China and the US have kept to their same timetable for the return to the pre-COVID level of GDP. China in this quarter, Q3 and the US in Q2 of 2021. All of the other global economy, all of the other countries within the global economy, regions within the global economy, and Janet mentioned it in the context of Europe and Eric in the context of Latin America, those economies have pushed out their timetable to the return to pre-COVID level of GDP. The reason why this matters is that the dependence, for example, for China on trade rebound has an endpoint to it if the rest of the global economy is not rebounding on the same timetable. So an asynchronous return to the pre-COVID level of GDP creates a fragility in the global forecast and particularly for any country that is dependent on trade. Let me just finish with our, when we look at prospects for the global economy more generally through a timetable into 2023, 24 and so forth. We don't see any recovery of the lost GDP associated with COVID. We get back to a trajectory for growth, but we do not return to the trajectory of global GDP that we had in place in January pre-COVID. This is a movie we've seen before. After the GFC, we returned to the trend growth rate but we never returned to the pre-GFC trajectory for global growth. About 5% of global growth was lost and never recovered. We have something like that in our forecast now. The implications of that for workers and for different age group demographics and for convergence of growth rates in emerging markets are all very dire. And so it's this lost GDP that creates scarring going forward that I think is the most serious question about where we are in terms of the COVID progress. And we're doing it incrementally. Every crisis we go through will seem to do with more and more debt which is more and more of a drag. JG, let me come back to you and talk a little bit about China because China is out in front on this. Is it as simple as China got a grip on the virus and therefore its economy was able to recover? Or was there a more complex policy cocktail that allowed it to get to where it is now? I don't think it's because of the stimulus policy. It's I think mainly due to this success in containing the virus. That's why in October, the National Day holiday, millions of people traveling around the country and we are seeing some places the hotel price tripled. There's even flat costs or doubled but still people want to pay the money to get some holidays after so long time of isolation. So I think there is a real V-shaped recovery in also I think in type of consumption goods as well. I see also from our JD, big data, this we see a strong recovery in luxury goods. That's very interesting. So like a 50% up in luxury goods sales these days. And so I think that this is also due to the fact that this high income workers, high income people, they actually have been less affected by the pandemic because these people like in the financial industry, in internet industry and in tech industry, they can work from home. So actually low income people, low income workers, their income has been affected. So their consumption has been actually weaker than those of high income families. So this is interesting feature. And also I think will worsen this income distribution issue. But for China, right now I think one fact that distinct China from other country regarding recovery is actually those days in China, no one cares about the virus anymore because they think it's safe. So they go to shop and they go to work and people wear less and less masks these days. So I think that's very, very, I think important to make the recovery more sustainable. And that's also why you can see that the Chinese economy currently have in the state of excessive supply because production has recovered much stronger and there is the excessive supply. But I see rest of the world has excess demand issue because if you look at the US data, European data that consumption has been less affected than the production, right? So there is a gap. So actually that's in my view why the Chinese exports has been performing well because they can feel the gap. And also that's the reason you can see the renminbi has appreciated pretty strongly Chinese currency, right? The global investors are pouring money to China these days buying bonds, buying stocks because Chinese monetary policy had been very conservative so far. So they actually hiked interest rates. Even they didn't hike the policy rates but the boundary rates, the market-based interest rates are rising, you can see 3.2% 10-year government treasury bill yields, right? That's been very effective for global investors. That's why we see, even though the Chinese exports have been performing well, but the global investors are pouring money into China. It's interesting that the real yield story is certainly something that I hear a lot of investors talking about at the moment. And I guess if you can't travel, maybe you do spend more money on luxury goods. Let me just reinforce while I'm halfway through this conversation that you can join in if you are watching, if you are on top link via Zoom, you can add some questions. They usually come towards the end, but let's try and space them out as we go along. Eric, let's talk a little bit about government finances in your region. Do you think that the caps that have been imposed by governments, particularly in Brazil and places like that will be sustained? Or do you think ultimately governments, and you talked about the rise in government debt that we're likely to see, is gonna go way beyond even maybe your expectations? In contrast to advanced economies, the fiscal space in Latin America and the Caribbean is quite tight. So if you make a comparison between GFC in 2008, 2009, and now we are not doing a good job in terms of debt levels. So in terms of what type of fiscal packages and the sizes of these fiscal packages has been reduced given the level of debt over GDP. So, but having said that, is not only a matter of the levels of debt over GDP, but also the speed of accumulation. And the speed has been really, really rapid in terms of trying to offset the shock. We have to do that. Of course, we are living war times and we have to react before that, but we have to think also about debt sustainability. So that's why we're gonna have this challenge in terms of trying to support our economy, but at the same time, we have to think about the recovery process that would mean some sacrifices in terms of doing reforms as soon as possible during the pandemic tunnel and not waiting for the end of the pandemic to do our homework. That's why we have to send a really strong signal to credit rating agencies, to investors, to say, okay, we have an opportunity here and we are doing the reforms to attract, for instance, foreign direct investments. The reform programs, obviously absolutely critical in some of these countries. I've read a lot about Brazil and its reform structure and whether or not that cap is gonna be held, I think it's really down to whether or not we are gonna ultimately see some of these reforms being pushed through at such a difficult moment. Janet, let's talk about the labor market in Europe. We are clearly seeing difficult data at the moment and as you've indicated, maybe that data does become even more difficult going forward. Let's talk a little bit about at what points can policymakers make the decision that we need to shift from simply preserving jobs to figuring out what the post-COVID economy looks like and retraining the labor force to be ready for that. Is it too early now? When do we get to that point? Yes, I think it's too early right now. While the public health situation is still so uncertain and quite worrying, it's too early. I mean, the truth is the job support schemes, if they had not been in place, you probably would have seen Eurozone unemployment peak at about 20% in the second quarter. If you'd used a similar kind of gauge to what's been happening in the US, there are still a lot of people in Europe on these short shift schemes and labor support schemes. And now they are subject to these renewed restrictions and geographical lockdowns that are in place. But you're absolutely right. These schemes will have to be phased out over time. Otherwise, there is a risk that there is a degree of zombification. I mean, it's quite interesting at the moment if you take the people who are not on the furlough of the schemes and don't count them, productivity has actually improved in Europe in the course of the last couple of months. But if people remain in these kind of zombie jobs as there's a persistent postponement of companies being restructured, even once the public health situation is under control, then that will have an even worse effect on medium to long-term productivity. Because as Katherine was mentioning, we know that after every recession, every recovery, the new growth path is weaker than the one before. And the more that we hamper productivity and indeed investment. I would differ on the comments earlier from JG regarding the differing policy stimulus. In China, I think there's been a lot more support on public investment. In the West, it's been much more support on consumer spending. But if we're talking about a backdrop where unemployment is going to be structurally higher, but at this point, we're certainly not getting much in the way of investment spending obviously in Europe, with the recovery fund in the coming years, we might get that coming through, then we'll have to be worried about productivity and future growth. So getting it right on the labor markets, both in terms of allowing people to be reallocated to new jobs in new sectors, in more digital sectors. Education, skills training is going to be really an important part of the reallocation process, not just when is it time to stop the support, the financial support. It's what you do next. It's the stage two of the policy support that will be most vital. Catherine, the Fed has set itself the target of above average inflation. How do we get there and what role will labor play in that story? Clearly, we are going to at some point have to transition to new jobs. We are going to have to deal with the zombification that to a certain extent we're seeing certainly in advanced economies. How do we get wages to move up in line with asset price inflation and the other inflation we're seeing in the economy right now? Catherine, I think you're muted. The inflation question is really an important one. We certainly see there are some people who are Milton Friedman devotees out there, kind of remember the days fondly from the 50s to the 80s when big advances in M1 growth and credit growth translated into inflation. And they're looking at that and they're hoping that maybe we'll see that again. Now, of course, there has been no relationship between M1 and CPI for about the last 40 years. And that's because of structural changes in money velocity and we don't see any changes in that. So, even though there are certainly people out there who are talking about inflation rising, the functioning of markets is really much a real side markets, product markets and labor markets are the key underpinnings of inflation going forward. And so we have to ask the question, what is it about the labor markets that are going to be associated with robust wage growth in the next couple of years when we are barely back to where we were in January and January had very tight labor markets really in many, many countries and we saw very little in wage growth. So there has to be something different in terms of generating wage growth other than labor market tightness. In some countries, for example, the United States we might be having to talk about a federal minimum wage. There's some changes in minimum wages that states put into place last year, pre-COVID maybe that's something that can be considered for the United States. But of course it's not just labor markets and wages that determine inflation. Ultimately inflation is generated out of firms being able to raise their prices. That's where inflation comes from in the real economy anyway a CPI or harmonized consumer prices in the EU. So how do you get to a situation where firms feel comfortable that they have pricing power that they're gonna send through those cost increases again, if we have basically two years before we get back to even where we were in January of this year in terms of domestic demand you have it's very challenging to imagine a scenario where across the board you get pricing power sufficient to support wage to support price inflation. Certainly we see price increases in certain categories of products. Ones that are in very high demand. Second cars use cars in the United States for example certain food items, but across the board it is challenging to get to a place where you're going to have increasing pricing power of firms and that translates into overall higher inflation. The two additional variables that are relevant in the inflation context are number one commodity prices. Again, some commodity prices we see some strength more broadly, no. And so we don't see that being a functioning way of getting to price inflation. And the last element is expectations. Now this is an interesting one because of course the average inflation targeting that was part of the review of monetary policy in the United States that did when it was announced that did lead to a bump up in the inflation expectations in the financial markets as measured by five year, five year forwards. So where that's a, you can get inflation expectations up but then of course you have to get inflation up in order to ratify those expectations. So there isn't a recipe yet that we see that is gonna generate inflation high enough to ratify those inflation expectations. The last point I would make about just the United States because I mean, Europe is in a different situation here because unless they change their inflation target which maybe they will do to make it symmetric as opposed to close to go below two. The only other thing that we can see that generates inflation is arithmetic. What's that arithmetic? That arithmetic in the United States is inflation was so low measured, inflation was so low early in COVID that next year on a year over year basis it will look really high, well over 2%, well over 2.5%. Now does that jostle financial markets enough to change their bond prices to incorporate inflation? If it's just the arithmetic, you can see some turbulence coming from it but not the kind of pricing power for firms that ultimately would lead us to higher systemic inflation. And the base effect will drop out. Yeah, exactly. Janet, let me put a question to you that we're getting through from the audience. It kind of picks up some of the points that Catherine is making. There is a, how comparable is the jobs recovery that we're gonna see now versus the financial crisis, the great financial crisis? Very different genesis to both of these two crises and the labor market is likely to react very differently. So how comparable are they gonna be? I think they're going to be quite different but what we do need to remember the recovery from the global financial crisis to get back to these record low unemployment rates, very tight labor markets that Catherine referred to, it took a decade. So in that sense, it is going to take a very long time. Also, nearly all of the jobs created over the last 10 years have been in the service sector. And of course, it's the service sector that's been most affected by the depth of this recession. So I think it is going to take a long time. It's just that hopefully government support will be more targeted at creating jobs at an earlier stage. And it really will depend on the extent to which these reskilling and education support comes through and the degree to which companies are still supported. Given the depth of the recession, we haven't seen insolvencies rise. In a lot of countries, the number of insolvencies has fallen over the last year. So again, it depends on the extent to which this labor market support remains in place for a certain length of time, but the potential challenge is going to be a lot bigger than it was following the global financial crisis. It really will come down to the strength of these policies support that's put in place. Let's talk a little bit about commodities. Catherine mentioned that as well. Eric, let me come to you. Is there any expectation that commodity prices will rise built into your numbers? And do you see any kind of commodity, significantly higher commodity requirement coming through from China? No, as you know, commodity prices are really important for Latin America and the Caribbean at the beginning of the pandemic. We were suffering at triple sun stop in terms of having a shock on human mobility, on trade volumes and commodity prices, and also in terms of capital flows and related to that, of course, remittances. So if you take a look to the trend of commodity prices, we were really hit at the beginning of the pandemic, April, May, but now they are recovering in some way. Probably the only one is not recovery to the pre-pandemic levels, it's oil, which is important for some countries in Latin America, but other products like copper, soy, and another are really, really close to pre-pandemic levels. It's important to say that China is waking up, so it's very important for trade in the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, but it's important to mention also is that we need a global recovery, which is sustainable in time. So the recent numbers in terms of trade are good, but uncertainty is quite high in terms of how to deal not only with the economy, but also with the pandemic, because our region is in the epicenter in terms of the impact on both sides, on the health side and also on the economic side. So I think we have a challenge, and of course we will depend on global demand and the sustainable recovery of China. Another question coming from the audience, this is related to it, Eric mentioning the price of crude. Janet, let me come back to you. We haven't talked much about the Middle East, we haven't talked much about Africa either, but let's talk a little bit about the Middle East. Crew prices, let's call them circa 40 bucks a barrel right now. What is your outlook for the Middle East with that kind of price in mind? It's not particularly robust is the truth of the matter. I mean, $40 a barrel is better than $25 a barrel, but the friscal arithmetic does not look good for any of the major oil producers, particularly ones with fixed exchange rate regimes at $40 a barrel. Brake even prices for a lot of them is a lot higher than that. So these will be countries that, yes, at least for the stronger ones, they are starting from low debt to GDP ratios or low-ish, certainly lower than a lot of advanced economies. They do have scope to continue to increase spending, but I think it puts the pressure on them further to continue to reform their economies and to diversify away their economies from such a heavy dependence on the hydrocarbon sector. And again, there are some smaller, more vulnerable economies within the region, but the biggest oil producers, as I say, hopefully it will motivate them to accelerate the reform process. But it is a pretty challenging growth outlook that they face in this world of weak growth and very low oil prices. Let's talk about where some of the new jobs are going to be coming from. If low oil prices are going to be persisting, and certainly there is a desire at the moment to push forward with a green economy. Let's try and figure out where this, what impact this is going to have on economic growth. There's also the issue of the health economy, which is growing as well, and I know we've got some questions in on that. Catherine, let me start with you on this issue of sustainability. We're about to see an election, Joe Biden potentially could win that, and he potentially has a big green agenda for the US economy. How will such an agenda affect the US's economic trajectory, and what effects do you see certainly happening in Europe? So when we think about the challenges of being more robust going forward in terms of productivity, in terms of growth, in terms of reducing inequality, increasing trade, I don't wanna put all of it on the shoulders of the green economy, but one of the things that's true about responding to climate change is that it will require firms to actually do CAPEX, whether it's tangible or intangible. One way or another, firms are going to have to use the liquidity that is being provided by the central banks in order to either mitigate, adapt, or innovate. Now, of course, to get them to do that requires a fiscal policy intervention. It requires a signal, a relative price signal that changes the relative price of different sources of energies. And this is where fiscal policy and government intervention matters to complete the market for carbon, if you wanna call it that. Now, do you have to be talking about a carbon tax? That's the easiest way to do it. As an economist, it's a single relative price. You change the price of carbon, you complete the market for carbon, you internalize the externality, and that's the way you would do it. Now, different countries are going to approach this in different ways, I think that's fair to say. But when we think about one of the major challenges right now and had post financial crisis, it was true. This crisis, it's true, is slack in CAPEX. The underpinnings of capital investment has been very weak. It's very weak right now. Why would you invest in any new capital if you're looking at global demand being soft for the next two years? So you need signals. You need signals as a business in order to undertake a new investment program. That signal could come from, as I say, a change in the relative price of energy, other aspects of fiscal policy, tax spend and rules and regulations, that's what kind of fiscal policy is. And if you have Europe, which is making an effort in this direction, in January, it was a very big component of the new European program coming out of Brussels. The European parliamentary members had been elected by citizens to undertake a green agenda in Europe. The recovery fund has a green element to it. If there was a more common global agreement, that's the US back into the Paris Agreement on climate change and undertaking the types of fiscal policies that will catalyze private sector response. This is a very different picture going forward into 2021 and beyond for capital investment, which is a capital stock component of potential output. A lot of green jobs, back in the day when the BLS had green jobs on their website, very labor intensive, especially mitigation labor intensive, so green jobs, it's that element. And also the innovation, we're talking about productivity enhancing growth. So the three elements of potential output going forward, capital stock, labor input, productivity growth, these all could be very different if there was a concerted global commitment towards climate change and then addressing climate change. And of course, I think the last thing, of course we know that climate change is a clear and present danger and we should have already done something about it, but we still can do it. And the last point that I think is relevant, especially in today's context where there's quite a bit of a concern about China is the US and China and Europe all agreed at the Paris Accords, all agreed on those Paris Accords, all agreed on this forward-looking agenda with respect to climate change. So I think if we think about the need to have a global coherence and global coalescing around a global objective, this is the one that really is needed right now. Well, let's bring in China. JG, let me come back to you. How achievable are the aims of Beijing in terms of carbon neutrality right now? How much investment will be required? Two things have come out of this crisis, one that we need to invest more in the healthcare system. So I'd like to ask you about that and jobs that are gonna be created there because the audience is interested in that and also the jobs that are created by this move to carbon neutrality. What do you see in China on both of those two fronts? How big a source of new employment are these two areas gonna be health on one hand and sustainability on the other? Yeah, I actually had been much more confident these days to achieve this environment to go is that the next stage of Chinese development is increasingly if folks on the digital economy. Now, as we know, this digital economy is a very environment friendly and I think that using the data, right? So it's intangible but has a huge impact on the economy. For example, mobile payment and you don't need to even have a credit card, right? You can save a lot of materials and you can save a lot of papers. And I think that the internet-based economy and also digitalization of shops and manufacturing process, I think it will become a key driver of Chinese growth in the next decade or even next few decades. And that actually to me will be very important in reducing pollution. And in addition to that, we know that there's a healthcare industry. It's also quite environmental friendly. This is using internet-based, the surgery process. There's a lot of innovation around this health industry in China. So this is something I'm thinking actually, China is in many ways is leading in utilizing this AI, big data, right? So you see mobile payment, you can see many areas that touch this payment system and you can save a lot of materials we know. And so that's actually to me is also very important driving force and that will be very efficient and that will also reduce pollution. In addition to that, the Chinese investment in, for example, this electric cars, it's become also very advanced. Tesla is building a huge factory in Shanghai and they are going to export back to Europe actually. So I think this kind of development made me quite confident that China is able to not only to achieve that goal, but also to contribute the fintech technology, digital economy, the some know-how to other countries to actually help preserve the environment. Okay, we're going to stay with the environmental team. Eric, final question to you coming from the audience. We've got a couple of minutes left. So just bear that in mind. How do you see the ESG agenda helping the recovery in Latin America? And what does that mean post pandemic? I think capitalism as we know it, we have to change it to be sustainable. And that's why we're trying to sell the idea that investing in ESG companies is a good idea, not only in terms of trying to find the right balance in terms of impacting the economy, but at the same time trying to find good financial returns. So we're trying to build a business case in terms of trying to convince sovereign world funds of the war and also pension funds to invest in ESG. Probably at the end of the day, we're going to find a current solution where all companies are going to be sustainable in time. So now we have to convince that pension funds, sovereign world funds and other institutional investors can move towards more ESG investments. So I think that's important to change our minds in terms of not doing the same thing. We know what to do. So now is the time to do it. So because given the short political cycle, I think it's very difficult to find like the right long-term view in terms of development. So that's the challenge for us. Okay, on that note, we're going to wrap it up. Plenty of challenges still lie ahead. I'd like to thank our panel, Joji Shen, Janet Henry, Catherine Mann and Eric Parado for their time today. A certainly a worthwhile discussion and a good setup for the event as it takes place going forward over the next couple of days. I'm going to hand things back over to Silabala. Thank you very much indeed for your time today. Thank you, Guy. And let me say first of all, thank you so much for your excellent moderation. And thank you also to our fantastic panelists for sharing with us your assessments of where the global economy is heading. We will continue to explore this new economic context with the forum's chief economist community and are also publishing updates on the state of the recovery on a quarterly basis in our regular chief economist outlooks. And the ambition over the coming months will be to really build out a broad based approach to these assessments, which will look beyond just the GDP recovery and also track progress on other factors, such as environmental commitments, institutional considerations and the social context. So thank you all once again to our moderator, our panelists and also to the audience joining us on the web and through top link. And we look forward to your participation in the sessions coming up later today and over the rest of the week.