 Quick show of hands, just so I know how to do the stops. Talk, who knows what a prediction market is in Powered Works? Okay, so that's probably like more than half. So I skip through this. So if I'm going to fast on anything, auto-stop, let me know. And I don't fast on stuff. Okay, so basically, for those who don't know, so first question, what actually is a prediction market? A prediction market is a market on any event in the future that is to the result of which is unclear as of yet. So basically, this is an example. So here the question is, will the air train in Manhattan be repaired by July of 2020? And then there are two answers that you need to specify when you set up the market. You also need to specify how you're going to resolve this. So in this case you're resolving this by saying you are counting on an official press release from the NPA on the office of the mayor of New York. So you have these two outcome tokens and they trade individually. So at any one time they add up to one because basically at the time of resolution the one that comes through will pay out one and the other one will not pay out anything. So basically at any point in time some of these two tokens will be one and at the resolution time the value, the market value of these tokens will go towards what the resolution result actually is. So what is a conditional market? So a conditional market is a prediction market that allows trading on assets that are contingent on the results of other predictions. Let me go into that. So we find that in the real world that there are many, many examples of things that are actually interrelated. So as an example, so these three markets will multi-collateral die will die will remain at by November 18 will multi-collateral die overtake single-collateral die and how much die is generated with it and with the stability fee for single-collateral die go up from today's 10.5%. So these markets, they all work together because Makedao has said that single-collateral die will run in parallel with multi-collateral die for at least six months. And clearly the answers, these are all yes, no questions and clearly the answers of these are correlated with each other. If you have an opinion on this, this will probably influence your opinion on the other one and the next one. So we've just put out a new framework for this. So let me explain you how it used to work in the old framework. In the old framework, you have a collateral token, say, for instance, Ether or Die contract. So the event contract here being, for instance, with multi-collateral die will remain at by November 18 and then that would have two outcomes, yes and no, this example has three outcomes, and you can buy the complete set. And then each of these outcomes you can trade individually. So each of these outcomes actually had a price at any one time. You can always take a full outcome set and convert it back into collateral token or you can wait until the event is resolved and then one of these outcomes will pay out one and the other ones will pay out zero. And there's a different flavor where basically the one-in-one plus gala, where basically you can go long or short and it's not binary, whether they pay out one or zero but they can pay out somewhere between one and zero but basically the idea is exactly the same. So if you actually had these nested markets so basically it will multi-collateral die go live on May 5 November 18 and it will multi-collateral die overtake single-collateral die. What you, in the old framework, what you would have had to do was you would have taken a first event, made a market out of it, so basically you can have answers A, B, and Z and then you can put these outcome tokens as a collateral token into a new event contract so basically you instead of putting either in here you put the conditional outcome, you put the outcome token of the first prediction in as collateral token and then you get these derivative tokens so basically here the first event has outcome A, B, and C and the second event has outcome B and you end up with six event outcomes so A and high, A and low and so on. You may notice that you could also do this the exact other way around so you could also switch these around and you could also say basically now I use event two as the first layer and I get two outcome tokens on the first layer and then I put this into the second event contract and I get three outcomes on this layer so I end up with six tokens there and if you actually compare these you'll find that these are exactly equivalent basically the payout function of A and high is exactly the same payout function as high in A and in this framework these tokens are not fungible so you can't, the system doesn't know that these are actually the same tokens and this is just for two separate events obviously this gets way worse if you add more events so what we actually did is we did this new first fight it's called the condition token framework and what actually happens in this is you can specify any number of conditions so in this case we would specify two conditions the first one has three outcomes that's A, B, and Z and the second one has two outcomes that's high and low and you pick left token that you put in and then you get these basically you only get one set of outcome tokens so the condition framework that I call token framework mechanics so A and high and high and A are not the same token you can do a partial redemption so basically if you have a token A and high and high occurs so basically high occurs then basically all the ones that are low they become white because low didn't happen and all the ones that were high will become just A and high becomes A B and high becomes speed C and high becomes C so you can actually resolve some conditions before other conditions without actually destroying the highest A what you can also do is you can buy baskets so you can say I would like to buy not A so basically I would like to buy B and C you can set positions so basically if you already have two specified conditions say you have A and Y and you can append another condition say with three outcomes that's one, two, and three and then you will get A by one A by two and A by three and you can merge positions basically if you actually hold all of these these three now so you have A by one, A by two and A by three you can actually just get your A by token back for it how does it work? so it's actually one it kind of goes a little bit against a traditional smart contract design school it's actually just one big smart contract that anyone can append conditions so the one big advantage of this is that there are tremendous gas improvements and you can actually see that tokens that should be fundable are fundable because they are identical so basically whenever you actually end an event so a registry entry to this smart contract you can specify a maximum of 256 outcomes slots per condition and this is permissionless, no fees and anything can be specified as a market by the person who actually pens to that contract so this is something that's out there it's been audited you can add your own conditions to that if you choose to do so so let's go back to this example so now you have these three markets and as we said earlier these are all yes no markets so how many atomic outcomes would that be? just two to the three right so basically two times two times two so that would be yes yes yes yes yes no yes no yes yes no no and so on so that's eight and these eight atomic probabilities of what is going to happen in the future and it's actually going to give you so basically these probabilities the eight probabilities of what would happen in the future these are actually going to be consistent so basically if one of these changes so if say obviously these are correlated so if multi-collateral die does not go live then the multi-collateral die will not overtake single-collateral die either so basically if the probability for this change then automatically the probability for this changes depending on how the market actually traded these previously and I'll give you showing you this so this is, can you guys see this in the map? yes so so basically this is a different example, I'm sorry I should have used the same so basically here are the questions I will quickly leave the EU on the 35th of October with no yield with a boat of no confidence of Her Majesty's government who passed before the 31st of October and with it the AHA would have between Newton Island and the Republic of Ireland on the 1st of November so obviously these are again iterated so what you can do now as you can say I want to have this as yes and this as no and then it will give you the payout structure so basically when this is going to pay out it is going to pay out if this is yes and this is no and you're going to lose the investment if either the first one is no or the second one is yes what you can also specify this one so with it the AHA would say no okay so what you can also do now is you can make these conditions so say now this basically says if Britain leaves the European Union on the 31st of October with no yield so basically that makes sense but will there be a hard border between Newton Island and the Republic of Ireland on the 1st of November and you can now specify this and it will again give you the payout structure so basically if this happens then you obtain a position on this market but if this doesn't happen so if the Britain doesn't leave the European Union on the 31st of October with no yield then you just get a refund on your prediction so basically you can place a prediction on something that doesn't necessarily happen so basically it's just it's a contingent thing so basically this is obviously making a good interface but this is super hard just because it's not and even for a simple prediction market making a good interface is hard so this is currently still very much a feature product let me go back to the top so how does this tie into a futaki so basically can we do a quick show of hands again who knows what futaki is oh wow about half again so basically futaki is basically rich markets for governments so basically what you do is you create a market on a question that you would like to find an answer on and you specify a metric for which you would like to optimize your decision then you let people trade on this market and in the end you actually use this data to make a decision on what you would actually like to do so this is something that's going to be big in dollars and other decentralized decision making and let me give you a concrete example okay so say I have a company and I have the CEO and basically the company we're wondering whether we should fire the CEO so basically then we find a metric that we would like to optimize for so in case what would the quantity revenue be if we fire the CEO or if we don't fire the CEO that's what we're going to optimize for we could also optimize for something else so say we could optimize for employee happiness for instance but I'm not very sure yet so we let in the fact what we do is we create markets so what is the utility revenue going to be given that we fire the CEO and what's the utility revenue going to be given that we don't fire the CEO and then we see which one of these works out better and we use this to actually make the decision of whether we should fire the CEO so over here it turns out that some beliefs that if we fire the CEO the quantity revenue will go up so we fire the CEO people who said who traded on this other market so what's going to happen to the quantity revenue if we don't fire the CEO they'll just be refunded and everyone who traded on this market given that we fire the CEO they will make profit or losses based on the quality of their revenue prediction so why are conditional tokens important for this so basically for this kind of decision making consistent view of the futures actually super important so basically if you have different contingent events in the future or different events that are correlated having one consistent view of the future on which to actually base these decisions on where basically all information actually feeds into giving you an accurate depiction of the future and probability space is super important so basically one aspect of a useful map of the future probability space regularity and consistency so basically if one thing is going to change you actually want everything else and you want to change according to how these things are related then you quickly check how much time I have the conditional token rate anyone can append to this anyone who used this but we've actually built our own application on top of this so basically the prediction market is flawed in regulatory sense so what we've actually done is we have gotten a license from a financial market regulator to make sure that we don't actually get shut down so giving you good things first so basically the prediction markets we can offer them on anything but support to retail customers which is super nice they are not custodial and fully collateralized we have a market mechanism that guarantees your liquidity and it's denominated because obviously having this in a stable asset makes things easier because otherwise you're just conflating two predictions about the future okay so we have to do AML and KYC because we have this license there's 1% trading fee but this is not really bad we can trust the market and we are the oracle because basically we are the ones so we have the oracle we are the oracle on this on this instance why why do we take keep obviously because we well started with negative cash flow and we are regulating geriatrists so basically that means that we can offer this to anyone in Europe and most of the world except for the US and Canada I'm super sorry we are working on that once we have seen that this works in other parts of world so the beager and you can take part of it if you go to site.pm and sign up so basically there's a couple of markets live now and we started one of them at 50-50 chances so basically there's actually quite a lot of money on the table right now if you want to take the and you cannot Chinese citizen I'm super sorry about this we are still working on that but if you are not from one of these 3 countries ask would you please to take part currently you have markets such as on the price of either the transaction fees on a certain day and make stability fees so basically things within the ecosystem we will go to other markets so starting with political markets after this we have so noses we have an ecosystem fund and this run around just close but there's going to be another one this year so check that out on github noses and we are also looking for a couple of people to join our team so you can actually check that out on greenhouse I was looking at those conditionals and I'm thinking that each additional conditional provides an opportunity for you to have stuck the token because of do you see what I'm saying is that why you have noses for viewing to make sure that there's no obvious so you mean if there's no way to resolve it yeah like an unresolved question yeah so basically what you can do is you can buy up the and then just merge them together again so basically if you have an A-B question you can't resolve it you can just have both and just strike that off of your of your outcome token because you can also you can split and merge them even before the things happen if you actually have all the different conditions but basically specifying good argument and wording it in a way that is sensible makes complete sense and as a person who actually registers a new a new token basically a new outcome token you can say which which conditions you actually subscribe to so basically that's in your discretion as the person who creates this anatomy an outcome token so basically there's a lot of there's a lot of room for this to not work out if the markets aren't valid perfectly I have an additional one okay so you have those outcomes do you have like an expansion of that because a single sentence describing I mean it must be like a very deep description underneath that right everyone can understand mother but then it's like the deep description exactly the small print yes so your community right basically it's in effect and it's like a little contract that actually tells you how things are resolved and where we actually check for these things and basically on the so it's kind of a it's your question on the conditional token framework anyone can specify their own argument so basically that's on them on the conditions that we register yes there's kind of like a it's literally like contract that actually says under which conditions this will resolve and you also have to make sure that it will resolve in any case right from us so it's yeah absolutely very good question