 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's, we might as well get started. Welcome to this non-farm payrolls and ECB press conference webinar. And it promises to be a fairly interesting session. No surprises earlier. Mr. Draghi and his compatriots left interest rates unchanged. I don't think that was really too much of a surprise given the recent policy actions of June and the reduction of rates into negative territory. I certainly think that any further action so soon after the June action would have been very surprising given that the economic data that we're seeing out of Europe continues to be patchy but also continues to be more positive than negative. Now, I know there's an awful lot of speculation that the ECB may embark on QE and certainly I think this afternoon's press conference which starts at 1.30 just after the non-farm payrolls numbers the market will be looking for clues from Mr. Draghi on any potential new measures, any more details on asset-backed securities and measures to create a market in that. Also, probably more details on the new LTRO, the 400 billion euros worth, which is due to start in September, which might as well be a lifetime away given the problems that we're seeing currently unfolding in Europe. This week we saw the French Prime Minister Manuel Balls call for the ECB to act further. I think the chances of that happening are pretty much between slim and none at this point in time. I certainly don't think that there's any likelihood that the ECB will act between now and September simply because of what Mr. Draghi said at his press conference last month, namely that interest rates are already near or at the lower bound. So that essentially means that any new measures that the ECB would embark upon are likely to be of the extraordinary measures variety as opposed to any movement in rates thereof. So given the fact that they've announced this TLTRO, I think it's unlikely that we will see anything more than what we call jaw-boning of the euro-lower. Certainly the French economy continues to remain very sclerotic. It seems to be continuing to struggle to grow in any meaningful way. And yet we have, I would suggest, I'm not going to say better than expected economic data out of Spain and Italy, but certainly it's starting to improve. It's the right side of 50 on the PMI measures, and therefore Mr. Draghi can actually argue that some of the measures that he has taken over the past six to nine months are starting to take effect. So I think he's always been very, very insistent that structural reform needs to take place, and that's certainly something that France has been very, very reluctant to do. So what are we expecting from non-farm payrolls? Because I think that more than anything is more likely to move the market than anything Mr. Draghi says, because I think essentially Mr. Draghi won't need to talk the euro-lower if the non-farm payrolls number is a very good one, because it essentially will be dollar positive. So I think Mr. Draghi will obviously look and wait and see and see what the number comes out at, assuming that he doesn't already know it. I have a feeling he probably already does. But certainly I think equity markets this week have been pricing in a very, very good number. You've only got to look at the gains that we've seen so far this week on the back of what I would suggest is fairly lukewarm US economic data, unless of course you include the ADP, which even I have to admit was very, very good. Certainly if you look at the data over the last few months with respect to ADP and consumer confidence and retail sales, it does paint a rather mixed picture. Now this graph that I've got in front of you now is a point for point comparison of jobs data totals between ADP, which is down here on the left hand side. So you can see there's yesterday's 281, then there's May's 179, 205. So you can see up until yesterday jobs growth in the US, certainly with regards to the ADP, has been fairly constant and has been fairly consistent. Apart from obviously January, where we saw a significant slow down in jobs growth, of one to one. And the same applies I think really to non-farm payrolls. We saw a very, very good number in the first month of Q2, 282. And then we saw 217 in May. And now the prospect is that potentially I think we could probably see something in the region of 235 today, given the fact that we saw a fairly positive 281 on the ADP measure. One thing I will say over the past five months, if you look at these numbers here, you can see that every single month since January, the non-farm payrolls has actually beaten ADP. So on that basis, you could probably argue that we could actually see a 300,000 number on the non-farm payrolls to keep up that level of outperformance that we've seen since the beginning of this year. So you can see the jobs growth on ADP over the first three months of this year. It's averaging around about 170,000. The last three months comes in around about 222,000. So if you translate that from US Q1 GDP at 2.9% contraction, which obviously we saw last week, it's a massive contraction of the US economy. And you look at the economic data that we've seen in April, May and June, relative to January, February, March. It has absolutely been better. But the question I think really needs to be asked is that given the fact that we saw a near 3% contraction in the US economy in Q1, are we going to see a plus 3% or 4% expansion in Q2? And I have my doubts as to whether certainly a 4% expansion is possible. And I think that's what markets are really looking to price in at the moment. They're looking to price in around about 4% expansion in Q2. Now you could certainly make the case for that if the June number comes in anywhere near the ADP number yesterday. But certainly given the fact that the US economy is very much consumer led, you really have to ask yourself where that expansion is going to come from. Because if we look at retail sales in Q1, they came in at 1.5%. We had a 0.9% contraction in January and expansion in February. And then a 1.5% expansion in March, which equates to around about half a percent growth retail sales over the quarter. To date so far in Q2, which is supposed to be signalling a significant bounce back in consumer sentiment, retail sales have been really disappointing. So has durable goods. So if you look at durable goods and you look at retail sales and then you compare them to manufacturing, there is a slight disconnect there with respect to what the manufacturing sector is doing and it is improving. We can see that on the PMIs, we can see that on the ISM, but the consumer is holding back. And I think given the fact that the US economy, 70% of it is consumer driven, that is a real concern for me going forward. So certainly be interested to see what the June retail sales numbers for the US will be over the course of the next couple of weeks. We should get some colour on that. We've certainly seen improving consumer confidence. We've got 81.7 in April, we've got 83 in May, and we've got 85 in June. But it's quite noticeable that despite the fact that consumer confidence rose in May, retail sales dropped back. So again, we've got that apparent disconnect between what confidence data is telling us and what the actual data on the ground, the hard data is telling us. And we've also got to remember that again, we're near the, we're at all-time highs at the moment for US markets. We're just below 17,000 on the Dow, on the futures contracts as we can see from here. You can see from this little chart that I've drawn that the 17,000 hasn't actually dealt there yet. We've come within a hares of breadth of it. Around about 16,999, we actually haven't touched the 17,000. If we get a good number, I think the key question for me, I think is the narrative, is the narrative going to continue to be positive for US markets? What we've also got to remember is we have a long weekend. We've seen good gains so far this week. What's it going to take for the markets to sustain those gains over a long weekend, given the fact that Q3 earnings season starts next week? I think that's one of the key questions. We've seen very good gains this week. You can see the day so far. If I change that to a weekly chart, that bears it out even more. Very strong gains there. But once again, we've been pretty much trading sideways, albeit with a slightly upward bias for quite some time to come. We're pushing against the upper boundary. We don't as yet have the capability to push above 17,000. Maybe the payrolls numbers coming out shortly will give us the catalyst to do that. Looking at the key levels on the S&P, again, we are looking at the 2,000 level. We remain quite some way away from that. I don't think we'll see that today. Good chance we may see 17,000 on the Dow, but I think it's unlikely we'll see 1,980 on the S&P 500. I think we've really got to think about the expectations and what the market will do in the event of a good number, an indifferent number and a disappointing number. I don't think there's any doubt about the fact that stock markets want to go up. Certainly Janet Yellen's comments yesterday to the IMF seem to suggest that the Fed is going to remain on its current policy of tapering, but with interest rates at very low a bound for quite some time to come. But certainly a good number could well see the FTSE push up back towards the upper end of its range, which is around about 6,890. The FTSE 100 has outperformed over the past two or three days relative to the rest of Europe's markets because certainly the DAX is nowhere near. Well, I'll say it's nowhere near. It's quite some way away from the highs, the all-time highs that it put in earlier in June around just above 10,000. I think one of the reasons why the FTSE has started to actually gain a little bit of attraction has really been as a result of those Chinese figures that we saw out earlier this week. And overnight as well, very good services, PMI data out of China, which does seem to suggest that maybe that particular economy is starting to stabilise, copper prices are starting to rise, and in general I think commodity prices are starting to rise. But what we mustn't also forget going into the weekend is geopolitical risk because Iran and Ukraine, Iraq rather, and Ukraine still remain a clear and present danger to risk appetite going forward. And as we know from past experience, sometimes going long into a long weekend is probably not the best policy potentially if something sort of breaks or something untoward happens over the weekend with respect to geopolitics and the insurgent risk in Iraq. Certainly that risk has diminished. We can see that in the context of the crude oil prices. But certainly in the context of what I'm looking at over the non-farm payrolls, data which is going to be coming out shortly is really the dolly yen. We should get a good indication of the dolly yen or the direction of the dollar in the event of a good number with respect to the dolly yen price. So what we're looking for, well the consensus is anywhere between $1.60 and $2.90. I'm going for $2.35, and that's my consensus. If anyone has got a view that's slightly divergent to that, please feel free to chuck it over using the chat facility. Please feel free to ask any questions that you may have about a particular market that you want me to look at. One of the things that I've done is I've basically put, I think the likelihood is we'll get a slightly stronger dollar. I think even if we don't get a slightly stronger dollar, Mr. Draghi will try and talk the euro down. So I certainly think the risk on euro dollar is more to the downside than the upside. I think if we get a move to $1.37, I think this is a good place to probably go short of it for a move back to around about $1.36 and $1.35. That's certainly the attitude that I'm taking. I've got a couple of little limit orders on, sell orders on sterling and the cable at $1.70, $1.80 and $1.36.90, you can see that there. So they'll get triggered if we get a little bit of dollar weakness after the numbers. I still think ultimately we're in a range. Certainly looking at the U.S. Treasury market, the potential there I think is for further declines in Treasury prices, which would seem to suggest that if we get higher, lower Treasury prices, we get higher yields. And that's certainly something that I'm looking to see in the context of this particular chart here on the 10-year. I think this does appear to be pointing lower. It does appear to be suggesting that we may get a fairly strong number on the non-farm payrolls. So what I'm quickly to go to my Bloomberg, these are the numbers that we're looking for, ladies and gentlemen. Hopefully you can see them. I'm going to give you a quick overview of what I'm looking for. So basically the main number is the unemployment rate. Now there is a good chance we could get a rise in the unemployment rate. Why? Because given how strong the fall in the unemployment rate was last month and given the fact that there's an awful lot of what I would say optimism about the U.S. economy, you may find that some discouraged workers have come back onto the unemployment rotors and therefore that could then push the amount of people looking for work up and as such push the unemployment rate up. So just because the unemployment rate goes up doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad thing. It just means that people may feel more confident about finding a job and come back on the rotor to look for a new job. This number here is what we're expecting, 215,000 out of 94 economists surveyed. Last month's number was 217, so again not really too much of a difference. What I will be particularly interested in is given the fact that the Federal Reserve means, here we go, 262, very good number, 262 revised up to 246.1 the unemployment rate, so it's pretty good across the board, very positive for the dollar, and therefore I think most definitely we will see a strong rise in the dollar. Also we've seen a significant rise in average earnings, so again that's fairly positive for the dollar. It breathes into the prospect of higher rates and again we've seen strong move down in U.S. treasuries, strong move higher in Dolly N, that suggests that we could well see further gains to around about $1,250 in Dolly N. Certainly we should see a further drop in the pound and the euro, and I certainly think it certainly makes Mr. Draghi's job an awful lot easier that particular number. It's a very good number and as such we could well see the euro lower. So let's just quickly have a closer look at these numbers. Weekly jobless claims, again fairly good, 315,000. The under-employment rate has dropped to 12.1. So pretty much across the board a very, very strong number. 288, not 262, I was looking at the wrong number. 288 for non-farm payrolls, my mistake there. I was looking at the private payrolls number, so again a very positive number. We're getting a strong rally higher in the dollar. I wouldn't jump on the back of it yet. I'd certainly look for a little bit of a pullback, a knee-jerk pullback. Certainly if I'm looking at euro-dollar, in particular we were trading around about 136.50 when those numbers came out. I think the likelihood is we could get a little bit of a pullback to that level, but we also need to be aware that there's a strong trend line support on the euro-dollar coming in around about just below the 136 level there. So we certainly need to see some evidence of a push through there and maybe Mr. Draghi could give us that. So certainly look for a pullback in euro-dollar to around about 136.40 to try for another push lower. Looking at the pound against the dollar, we've had a good run so far at 171.80 level, looks a fairly good resistance level and actually given the make-up of this three-candle formation here, I think if we close pretty much where we are now then I think there's a good chance we could have a little bit of a return back to 170.40 and maybe even 170 over the short to medium term because I think the fact that average earnings in the US have aged up, jobs growth has aged up, the Fed is going to find it very, very difficult to fight back against the expectation that they're going to be able to keep rates lower for longer. And everyone is factoring in that the Bank of England may be the first central bank to raise rates. I don't think it's really that much in question. I think what could well happen though is that the time horizon for the Fed to raise rates could start to move closer to the Bank of England. So the push pull of the sterling and the dollar interest rate or yield curve could actually start to come in more in the dollar's favor than it has been at the moment. But certainly those numbers are very broadly positive for the US dollar and as such, I think the period of Euro strength that we've been seeing it's going to be much, much more difficult for Euro dollar to rally much beyond 137 or the highs this week given those fairly strong numbers. And certainly the expectation is that Mr. Draghi, as he's talking now, he's talking right now in his press conference, I'll just pull that over to your screens and have a quick look at it. There he is having a little chatter along talking about the economies continuing to grow in Q2. The danger that he's got is that he doesn't want to appear too positive about the economy because that would essentially mean that that could underpin the Euro. So he wants to remain, he needs to walk a tightrope essentially between remaining dovish but not remaining too pessimistic either and basically managing expectations about the direction of monetary policy lower rates for longer but cautiously optimistic that this lower rates for longer will deliver what he wants it to deliver in the context of some growth and a reduction in unemployment. So does anyone have any questions on any markets that I haven't as yet covered? Actually, there is one market that I should have mentioned before I came on and I'm a little bit annoyed with myself that I didn't mention it. Aussie dollar. That number is going to be very bad for the Aussie and very good for the US dollar. We've seen this trend line break down here through 9350. We heard overnight the RBA's Stevens talk about the fact that he doesn't want a higher Aussie. He thinks the Aussie is overvalued. We saw weak economic data this week from the Australian economy. We saw a significant trade deficit largely impacted by a very sharp fall in exports. Not really surprising when you consider the value of the Aussie at this time. Just being asked about the gold market, I will cover that. No, you didn't and that's my mistake. I should have actually talked about that but as you can imagine that particular number is not going to be particularly good for gold. We're at the top end of the range for that before I started to speak and I would imagine we've dropped back quite sharply without even looking at it. Let me just have a quick look at that. As regards the Aussie, I think we're going to probably see further declines in that towards the 200-day moving average. We've certainly seen a sharp fall in the gold price as we can see from this chart here. Every time we've gone anywhere near 1,330, we've found significant interest to sell. Certainly using this oscillator that I tend to use, it's generally fairly reliable in plotting the highs and the lows in the gold price. It got it here and it looks to me as if it could well have got it here. If you do need to talk to me, someone is trying to talk to me, HMC, you need to talk to me on the chat, the chat facility, talk to me on that and I can answer your question. I actually can't see your question the way that you've asked me at the moment. If you use the chat facility, you can direct your question to me across that. Looking at the gold price, we can see that it's heading back towards the lows this week and I would certainly expect to see a test of these lows around about 1,306 at the moment. It's tried to push lower, it's started to come back. The thing with gold is at the moment it's being pulled and pushed in two directions. Because it's such a safe haven and because there's so much geopolitical risk going on at the moment, you're finding it underpinned on the one hand by concerns about geopolitics, but on the other hand you're seeing it undermined by the fact that the Fed will continue to pull back on its monetary easing policy. But I don't think that's really in doubt. Everyone pretty much takes it as standard that interest rates could well be starting to turn higher. So then really it's a question of what do you think is going to hold gold at its currently elevated levels? And really for me it's the cost of reducing it. I think if gold falls much below $1,200 it becomes uneconomically viable for miners to dig it out of the ground and therefore they'll stop mining it. That should underpin the price. But to go higher we need to break above 1,330 and 1,400 and again I don't think the conditions are in place to do that. So at the moment with respect to gold it's very much a range trade. It's a range trade between the upper boundaries of around 1,330 and the lower boundaries that we've seen at the beginning of June around about 1,250 and 1,260. In essence yes I do think it'll test 1,295 again of being asked, yeah I think there's a very good chance that will happen over the course of the next month or so. There's no reason to suppose that it won't. I think the geopolitical concerns at the moment are manageable. I certainly don't think there's any risk of a significant deterioration in the short to medium term but I certainly do think that we can drift back down there but certainly we should find a little bit of support down there. Certainly around about 1,280,1,285 that would be certainly the level I would expect to maybe think about going along again. Been asked about Dollar Canada. Again that's another very interesting chart certainly on a long term basis. We've seen that here. If we look at this long term chart I think there's a good chance we may have found a little bit of a base on Dollar Canada. Let's look at this chart here which I drew about an hour ago in preparation for this. We've come down quite sharply over the course of the last few days or so. Now the Canadian economic data that we've seen recently has been okay but it's not been, it's been okay and it's reflected in this particular move lower in the Dollar CAD but we are now approaching a very key support level on Dollar CAD. We've broken below the 200 day moving average but we could well find support just around these levels at the moment. Now here we have a potential reversal pattern. Now those of you who don't know, I like to look at candlestick patterns to get an idea of where the market's going to go next and this pattern here is a fairly, it's not a weak reversal pattern. It's a medium term reversal pattern. It's called a piercing pattern and that does seem to suggest that maybe we could get a little bit of a pullback in the Dollar Canada back towards 107 and possibly 108. So if I just highlight that for you, ladies and gentlemen, this is what I'm looking at. This here. Okay so basically we have a strong down candle at the end of a downtrend and then we have an almost complete reversal. It's not quite a bullish engulfing pattern. It's a piercing pattern whereby the whole body of the candle goes more than 75% into the body of the previous candle. Now that suggests to me that we could well see a bit of a rebound on Dollar CAD back to around about 107.50 and these twin lows here. What we mustn't see is a move below the lows that we saw yesterday. Otherwise the pattern is completely negated. So certainly on the risk of reward basis here, I think the odds favour a little bit of a short squeeze over the course of the next few trading sessions for a move back to around about 107.108. Being asked about the WTI, WTI spread. Is that what you're asking me, the WTI or WTI oil? Okay WTI. Now WTI, I thought we were going to go quite a bit higher over the course of the next few trading sessions. Actually that hasn't happened and this also feeds into my theory about inflation in the US. If you look at where oil prices were and have been over the last six months with respect to the US, they've come from lows of around about $92 a barrel to around about where they are now which is 104. That's a 13 or 14% rise. Gasoline prices are much higher than they are, much higher now than they were in the winter. That's got to be inflationary. That doesn't appear to be being totally reflected in the inflation prices. Now looking at WTI, I certainly think there's potential for a little bit of weakness now that we've dropped back below these breakout levels that we saw earlier in June. When we broke higher, I was certainly looking for a move to around 110.111. We haven't seen that. Therefore I'm out of the equation and then I now have to reassess. Reassessing this, now that we're back inside this triangle, then you've really got to think that maybe WTI is going to drift lower. Certainly if you look in the context of US inventories, then there's plenty of supply and as such we should come back down. Now what does that mean for Brent? Well Brent again is probably a completely different animal to WTI and as such I think maybe the spread could widen out because I certainly think there's more scope for WTI to fall than there is for Brent to fall. Certainly looking at the Brent chart here, we could certainly fall back to around about, at the moment we're trading around about just below 111, we could probably drop back to around about 109 but certainly overall it does look here on my little stochastic is if we are starting to get sometime near a little bit of a short-term base, we've dropped below the 40-day moving average. Let's say when we've dropped below the 40-day moving average before we've usually only spent about four or five days below it before we've ticked higher again. If that pattern is repeated then I think the downside in Brent is likely to be more limited than the downside in WTI. Okay so hopefully was that okay guys? You probably don't agree with me but that's fine. Oh yes and silver as well, silver. Will silver hold the 2095 level? If I knew that I'd be a very rich man. Let's have a look. Well I think the mechanics of silver are slightly different. Again we're in this range of lows around about the 2095 level. Let's just draw a horizontal line in through there to see where the supply comes in. Actually we could probably drop to 2070 because we've got very long shadows on all of these candles. Now that tells me that there's plenty of demand for silver at very low levels. If we drop below 2060, 2070 then obviously I reassess that but certainly at the moment while we're above 2060, 2070 then the bias I think for silver still remains towards the upside but we could see a little bit of weakness in the short to medium term while we're trading sideways which is what we have been over the course of the last couple of weeks. Okay right guys what I'm going to do I'm going to wrap this up. If you want to listen back to any of this I will be posting it on YouTube later for you to listen back to. Otherwise I'd like to thank you all for your company today. Hopefully you found it informative and interesting and hopefully you make lots of money this afternoon and enjoy the rest of your day.