 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We don't get many sports days better than today Not only is it MLB opening day for today But also it's the first day of the sweet 16 the men's college basketball tournament here to break down that is Aiden Connor will talk to Aiden today about his read on all four games for tonight We'll talk some futures as well to get you ready for night number one of the sweet 16 This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Aiden Cotter check him out on Twitter at Aiden Cotter FD You find his work at Fandall research where he is a writer for us Aiden. Happy sweet 16 to you How are you doing today? Pretty good Jim excited We were talking a little bit before we show started It seems like we have a lot of our a lot of the favorites are still around a lot of the top players in the Game are still around so it's gonna be a fun couple days and so decide the final four Yeah, I was I was checking my bracket and I have all of my elite 18 still alive And it's like that does not indicate anything about me It says that we had a lot of favorites win over the weekend, which could be boring But also I think that it just sets us up for really fun games We're getting to watch like the best of the best kind of go at it and Personally, I love a good upset But I think I'd rather skew that way where I'd rather have a bit more chalk if it leads to more intriguing games later on the tournament Yeah, definitely I think just leads to having the best players in our sport kind of out there for the world to see especially for people that Really only tune into college basketball during March Madness. It's fun for them to get to experience Yeah, some of what more diehards have been seeing all season. So it's fun. That's me I want that introduction and we're gonna get that for tonight We'll do for today with Aiden is break down all four games get his read on them Outline where he sees value at Fandall Sportsbook and then we'll talk some futures with him as well before the sweet 16 gets underway We'll talk about Friday's games tomorrow with Riley Thomas right here in the same place to get his read on those But if you want some thoughts on today's MLB slate, go check out yesterday's covering the spread with Tom Vecchio Thank you to Tom and Austin Swain for filling it for me while I was gone earlier on this week You can find Tom's read on the MLB opening day slate here on covering the spread But also over on it fandall research podcast because the opening day solo shot is posted We're doing props there as well So we made the change with the daily ISO and the heat check talk betting and DFS Doing the same with the solo shots if you want some player props for Thursday's opening day games check those out with Tom Along with some thoughts on DFS to search for fandall research podcast wherever get your podcast that of course The covering the spread version here on covering the spread and also over on fandall TV plus Say goodbye to busted brackets because fandall lets you bet on every game of the tournament Whether you're betting on a big upset or a one-seat It's time to go dancing on America's number one sports book right now new customers get $200 and bonus bets If your first $5 bet wins, that's 200 bucks to use on point spreads money lines You can even pick who's gonna win it all just as a fandall calm and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets Must be 21 plus in president select states fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Starr casino LLC first online a real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now withdrawal with bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat see terms That sports book to fandall calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over the fandall calm slash rg in Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina and Vermont called 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 over the ccpg dot org slash chat in Connecticut 1 8 109 with it in Indiana 1 810 5 2 2 40 700 is a chaos gambling health comm in Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana visit md gambling health Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or visit in Wyoming can also visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you under 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 hopin y or text hopin y in New York Now eight will begin to Thursday's games here in just one second But bit of an inflection point here we've had the break to take a look at the futures market in the men's college basketball markets and We've got a good read on the matchups and you kind of know the path So I want to ask you about what you think of the futures market right now any value You want to snag there before we get to tip off for tonight? I don't love any of the outrides I wasn't there wasn't anything that really stuck out to me before the tournament started and then with Like we talked about there's just been a lot of chalk So there hasn't been a whole lot of movement on that front For me, obviously you con Houston and Purdue or the three teams I am most confident in to win the national championship, but that's also reflected in the odds I think What I've started to look into a little bit And if you wanted to get a future on one of those three teams that a little more value is you can look at the final four most outstanding player market So the last four winners have been that team's leading scorer and that's only happened in six out of last ten years So it's not always that cut and dry, but there's still you can get a little bit more value And so I'll just throw a few names out for those teams first for you con You still see Klingon is like plus 600 plus 650 That's interesting. I think you get a little more value further down at Tristan Newton who is their leading scorer He's plus 1100 he won the big East tournament MVP. He's a leading scorer. They're leading assist man For Houston their national championship odds are plus 550, but then their top player Jamal shed He's down at plus 1000 to win most outstanding player He's our second leading scorer, but he's kind of like the heart and soul of their team So he would be someone where if you're talking yourself into Houston winning the national championship He would be probably the main reason why and then obviously for Purdue You're not seeing a whole lot of different so they're plus 550 to win the title Right. It's plus 600 to win most outstanding player So that's not a huge gap But at the same time like if you're willing to bet Purdue is going to win the title that little bit of extra value It's probably worth it given is enormous impact on the team Just as kind of a fun one something we have seen once or twice in the last ten years is you'll see a Teams like secondary tertiary option just get super hot for one of these two games We saw it with like Ryan Archie Diakono on those really loaded Villanova teams I'm Luke Hancock on that Louisville team in 2014 so for Purdue all the way down at plus 28,000 Lance Jones Was their third leading scorer? He hasn't been very good this month, but he was super hot at the beginning of the year He was averaging over 15 points per game to start this season And we like I've said we've seen guys get crazy hot in these two game samples And for me to have someone who's a team's gonna be their second or third leading scorer even when he's not playing well That odds is just kind of insane to me and that is something we're like I'll throw a dollar or two on that like just a little bit of action on there Sure, but other than that, there's not anything I'm really trying to dive into with the futures But that I think is just kind of a fun one if you're thinking Oh, maybe they'll focus in on ED like he'll have to kick it out and play through their guards and still win the national championship So that's that's Lance Jones 280 to 1 to win the final four's most outstanding player Plays a lot of minutes is out there hasn't had to do a ton in the first two games because they've been blowouts effectively And like you said, they're gonna put a lot of attention on Zach Edie and you know Most Purdue players are going to have length and odds is all through the fact that they're saying that if Purdue does One of winning it 90% of the time it's going to be Zach Edie who winds up winning the most outstanding player It's just like it. I'm curious how the voting works for this award because there are some awards where it's like, you know The people voting on it Might just go with like the most obvious answer. I don't know. I don't want to disparage voters But how does the like actual allocation of this award work? Is it people we can trust to kind of like actually give it to the guy who catalyze the team to victory? Yes, I believe it is media. Okay. And so like I said, we The last couple years they've been a little more chalky with their voting. Yeah kind of giving it to like They're leading scorer and their best player Yeah, but we have seen especially with teams with a little more depth And that's why you'll see Yukon has like two or three guys with shorter than plus 2,000 odds to win it That they can get kind of sucked into these storylines and once again The important thing is here is this is a final four most outstanding player So this is just the two games is what they're supposed to be looking at right and you know Take that with a grain of salt, especially with someone who's been as dominant as Edie But like I'd mentioned Ryan's actually did I can oh on that Villanova team like they had Jalen Brunson They had miles bridges Macal bridges they had a lot of really high-level scores guys who were impeding for a natural player of the year And then they have little Ryan Archie Dock and I'll come out and light it up for two games and one It's just kind of a fun one. But yeah, I said Still probably a little more value just taking Edie compared to that 550, right? Yeah, the Patrick Mahomes kind of bad the Patrick Mahomes MVP bet is Zack Edie Six to one to win a final four most outstanding player But maybe some value Lance Jones 280 to one to win it as well Let's talk about Thursday's games now a starting off with Clemson versus Arizona the first game of the night Right now Arizona seven and a half point favorite at Fandall Sportsbook when you look at this one any values Did out to you Aiden This game is so tough because if you remember last week I was really high on New Mexico and they played Clemson in the first round I had some New Mexico futures to make it the lead eight make the final four was all over them to beat Clemson and I think I said exactly New Mexico might run Clemson off the floor and the exact opposite happened I'm sitting in New Mexico off the floor dominated the pace. They couldn't miss from three And I was like, okay one off for Clemson and still not a believer Now they're playing Baylor who was like probably my second or third favorite team in this region It's like Baylor won't have a problem Definitely a closer game Baylor made it tight towards the end, but Clemson still just came out ahead their guards have been playing super well and Yeah, I have the same kind of lean for this game where I want to take Arizona I think the public is going to be really heavy on Arizona and Analytically they match up so much better like Arizona I think has better national championship odds than North Carolina who is the one seed in the region Arizona being the two Like they are a very very good and well-rounded team But I there's just something about this game where I can't really trust the Wildcats here I it's hard for me to trust Caleb Love It's hard for me to trust an Arizona team that we saw them drop a couple of easier games during the Pac-12 schedule Whereas Clemson has been battle tested in what now is looking to be like a pretty strong ACC They have four teams in the sweet 16 and Clemson I think didn't get a whole lot of hype coming in because kind of like Alabama who will talk about later they did not play well down the stretch and You I think you can kind of get caught in this trap where you're You buy into these late season runs and these late season conference pushes and fade the teams that falter down the stretch and It's a little more important I think to take a step back look at their overall body work and Clemson does a really good job playing slow they play inside and if they can dictate the pace against a team like Arizona Who likes to get up and down and likes to push? I Think seven half is just too big of a number for me. I mean Arizona They beat my Dayton Flyers in the last round by I believe 12 they cover at the last second. It was a brutal cover But they only did that and Dayton shot 28% from three and it's like one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country and Long Beach State in the first round the 15 seed Kind of hung around with them in the first half like I haven't loved hours and I was looked to kick off these first two games and Clemson I think it's just playing really well. They have good guards They have a good big man who just hasn't had a good game in the tournament and they still been winning And so the fact that they have been playing so well without their best player having a big game I think really has me leaning towards taking that Clemson plus seven and a half in what should be a closer game I think that people expect and the plus seven and a half on Clemson right now is minus 118 I want to ask you how much stock you put into The opening two rounds because obviously we're seeing teams in a pretty recent recent format We're seeing that a very recent setting and so it's like probably our best sample on them But it is also just two games thus far So it sounds like here you're putting a lot of stock what you've seen from Clemson and Arizona the first two rounds How much does that drive you towards the lean towards Clemson plus seven and a half? Yes, so it's kind of similar to what I was saying about us over relying on yeah end of the season conference tournament results I don't want to get too sucked into how teams look in those first two rounds because Especially with this weak gap between the two games where they have this time to rest and game plan for this one or two specific games. I think it is easier for me to get behind the higher seed teams that play well and This year we don't really have a huge like Cinderella like a 13 or 14 seed that one made the way to sweet 16 Where for me that would be kind of more of an obvious fade Because they kind of just got hot for two games and we know their overall body of work isn't that strong Whereas Clemson they are playing really well right now But they also have that body of work from the regular season that we can draw from and say okay This isn't just like a one-off. We've seen them play while throughout the year. So it's kind of a combination of both Especially a team like Clemson who has played a difficult schedule They played like I said in the ACC, which is proving to be actually a pretty decent conference And so it's you kind of have to weigh those things just With their overall body of work Yeah, I think you got away both and that's what you're doing here So Aiden is leaning towards Clemson plus seven and a half in the opening game against Arizona Second of the night is Yukon taking a sandy taking on San Diego State and the spread has lengthened And this is now Yukon minus eleven and a half and they've earned that I I want to thank you conks. I say have to watch the Northwestern game in Scotland And they allowed me to go to bed early because it started at eleven forty five Over there in Scotland. So thank you to Yukon for allowing me to go to bed But now that's a big number Aiden. So let's read on this game here And this game is so hard for me because like I said, I think Yukon is the best team in the country I don't think it's a hot take at all Confident they're gonna win against San Diego State outright. They've been my title picks since January This line is just this is tough man Like you said, it's even grown to eleven and a half it was ten and a half when I was prepping last night and Even that was pretty difficult for me to get there If you remember Yukon, this is a national championship rematch from last year and Yukon smoked them beaten by 17 last season They did that they didn't even they lost the turnover battle. They only made six threes and they still won by cleared this line with ease and Obviously, this is a different team like I would argue This is a better Yukon team than last year and then this is a worse San Diego State team than last year It's still hard for me to lay this eleven and a half when you have both of these teams play at a slower pace They're both very good defensive teams. I think that lends itself more towards the under is pretty interesting here I think that would be how I would play this game But it's still it's so hard for me to do anything that's like fading this Yukon team is so hard for me because What we've seen from them is at the snap of their fingers They can pop for 80 90 points by themselves and then this under is looking pretty stupid So I think the under is still how I would play this game from a lines perspective I might end up playing a prop here. I wrote up Tristan Newton who is Yukon's point guard his points and assists line under the assist tab is 20 and a half and I think that's interesting He's Been definitely their most reliable player of late. I Still I don't know. This is a game I think I'm gonna end up staying away from at the end of the day Like I said, I love Yukon when you look a lot of the models those like Ken Palm Bartorovic hazel metrics They're all like Yukon minus eight Yukon minus nine and I don't want to be on San Diego State here But at the same time like I know you said you went to bed before the end of the Northwestern game But they did they almost sneaky backdoor covered there at the very end Yeah, I checked the score in the morning. It's like, okay That's at least like somewhat respectable right right and like you see that with these bigger lines And so I don't I think this is gonna be a stay away from me But if I had to have a lean it would definitely be towards the under and towards Tristan Newton over Points and assists. Okay, so I think that your overall thesis here is that if this pace is slow It's hard to cover a bigger number one way you could You know parlay those thoughts is by taking a San Diego State plus 11 and a half under 135 and a half now those two bets are Correlated and Vandalsports book knows that but you you know, you could at least consider that as a route potentially to looking at this game plus 244 the same game parlay there so you're actually not paying a massive tax to parlay those two together so if you want to go at the angle of San Diego State slows things down try to get a higher variance game You could decide to go that route too, but the Tristan Newton over 20 and a half points plus assists The other one that Aiden is potentially eyeing here for this game for tonight Let's not win a third game on Thursday that is Alabama taking on you and see four and a half points spread here for this one total is 173.5. What are you seeing in this one, Aiden? Yeah, so I think the nightcap is what I'm really excited about for today. The first two games are interesting There's some stuff I'm looking for but these two night games are gonna be awesome So no Carolina in Alabama. You'll see this total is absolute absurd 173 half is just a crazy number for a college basketball game And that's because both of these teams they're top 20 and scoring Alabama is actually the nation's leading scoring team They average over 90 points per game. They're both top 20 in offensive efficiency. They're both top 50 in pace and My my initial lean was to take North Carolina I was like kind of off Bama for kind of the same reasons with Clemson where they Came into the tournament a little. I don't know not playing their best ball. I Think I do want to lay this four and a half with North Carolina It has moved up a little bit even the last couple days I think a big thing to look out for with Alabama today is they do have kind of a key injury Lacharole right cell who's one of their starters. He's one of their guards. He's probably their best perimeter defender He missed a couple games at the end of February with what they call a head injury And then the Grand Canyon game he left in the first half with a similar head injury at Natoats their coach had said we're gonna see how he looks on Thursday. He hasn't practiced this week So I think especially if he's not out, I'm really concerned with how Alabama is gonna slow down North Carolina because Alabama's offense is electric and it's awesome But so was North Carolina's the difference is North Carolina is also top 10 in adjusted defense They don't turn the ball over They actually play defense unlike Alabama and the biggest thing for me is North Carolina does a great job getting the free throw line And Alabama not only are they not a good defensive team. They foul a lot They struggle a lot to get out of foul trouble, especially inside and so the more I've looked at this game I think my favorite way to play is on Fando. You can do player to score 15 points plus team to win So if you go to North Carolina to win and Armando Baycott to score 15 points I Had that at plus 135 Last night and for me that is such a more comfortable way to play this game where I don't need to worry about North Carolina covering the spread and I Can kind of get in on this player prop that I'm really interested in because Alabama That is not a good interior team and Baycott has been a huge offensive threat in the last couple games He's cleared this line like four or five straight. He's taken on a lot heavier scoring load in the postseason and so Kind of what we talked about with the San Diego state line where I'm correlating these two things where I think North Carolina is gonna win I think they're gonna dominate the paint and when they dominate the paint That's gonna be because they're playing through their best player And he's getting on the offensive glass and he's being super active getting to their free throw line And so for me that is my favorite way to play the game, especially getting it up to plus money. Yeah So it's now shortened. It's plus 120. You said I think you said plus 135 earlier on That's for a monitor Baycott score 15 plus points and North Carolina to win It's not a plus 120. Is that still value for you? And how much wiggle room is left for you to still feel okay about this bet? I think so. I think if you're getting that at plus money, so Baycott's points I had written it up earlier this week for final research and open at 50 and a half It is now moved to 16 and a half. So we're seeing people buying into Baycott's scoring prop. Yeah at the same time we've seen North Carolina move from three and a half to four and a half Right. So both of these things are getting a little more Little more action a little more popular And so I think as long as you're getting that at that plus number. I am pretty comfortable laying that Okay So plus 120 right now for Baycott score 15 plus points and for UNC to win for the Alabama versus UNC game Final game of the night is Illinois taking an Iowa State in the tightest spread We've got on the board here as it is Iowa State minus one and a half taking on Illinois So super tight spread here Aiden. What are you seeing for this one? Man like purely as like a basketball fan. This is the game. I'm most excited about so like in one corner with Illinois You have the three seed that the Big Ten tournament champs And if you go on Ken Palm, they are the number one team in adjusted offense, right? They're coming off these huge 16 26 point wins in the first two rounds. Haven't really been tested They can absolutely score like they all five of their starters are over 6-6. They're just big They all can kind of handle the ball. They do a great job They play more of a pro-style offense where they really look for these mismatches where they can attack with their two main Playmakers Taren Shannon and Marcus the Mask They can score from all three levels of the floor they can get up and down they can play in a half-court like This Illinois team is insane on offense and then you have Iowa State who Big 12 tournament champs and they are the number one defense on Ken Palm and this is something I think in the last 10 years this has only happened like nine times where we've had the number one Ken Palm offense play the number one Ken Palm defense So it's like but hasn't happened in the sweet 16 that seems like really early for this kind of thing to happen Oh, yeah, like it is is such a Fascinating matchup for me, especially like Iowa State does such a good job. They just wreak so much havoc on defense they love to like force turnovers and double in pressure and Like we saw them hold Houston to 41 points in the big 12 championship Houston scored like 90 in the second round like and they're one of the best teams in the country like Iowa State has Been the best defense in the country for months now and then Illinois has been the best offense in the country I can't pass up getting the better offense at plus 100 like I Know I said there the number one offense on Ken Palm I think that kind of like undersells how good their offense has been So like not only ranking wise in the number one offense, so their offense of rating is one twenty six point eight That's the highest number Ken Palm has recorded since that Villanova 2018 team with Jalen Brunson McKell Bridges that just tore people up, you know that Villanova team had a better defense So it's not the same level of dominance and that's why I'm not really interested in them as a national championship future But just to say like this offense, they're doing things that we haven't seen in like six or seven years. I Think their style of play is just gonna be really tough for Iowa State and I do I think the old school way of thinking is like Defenseman's championships and I think there's definitely a lot of truth to that But I think an individual matchups, especially like you said in the sweet 16 It's really hard for me to not lean towards the offense Like I said, they have these two guys Terence Shannon and Marcus the mask who have just they're huge They're like six six like 220 like these big built guys. They're upperclassmen. They've been in these kind of bigger games Shannon is on an absolute tear right now. He's averaging close to 27 points per game over the last two months But for me like the mask is really kind of their key He has just thrived over the second half of the year as like their main distributor and so I'm also interested in his assist prop So the last four games he had a triple double in the first round he has more head state He had seven assists against Duquesne last round and then the big 10 championship I think he ended them with back-to-back eight assist games and it's at four and a half and That is just such a crazy line for me considering how Iowa State plays defense where they're constantly doubling and pressuring and That has led to them having one of the highest Opponent assist rates in the country and we see that with a team like Houston also has a defense like that where? Yeah, they have great defensive metrics but they also do give up a lot of open shots because they're putting so much pressure and they're doubling and The mask in Illinois they do this they have their they call their offense They call it booty ball So it's really just the mask just backing down defenders and because he's 6-6 and he's a good passer he can kind of see over these guys and I Don't I'm just very concerned with how Iowa State is going to guard him because he's such a good passer and scorer. I I think they're gonna struggle to force turnovers here, and I think Illinois Both teams are able to play up and down and play in that half court So I'm not really concerned with like Iowa State being able to dictate the tempo and control the game. I Don't think Iowa State is gonna be able to do enough on offense to hang with Illinois and as long as Illinois is hitting shots They don't have to be going crazy from three as long as they're hitting shots I think they're gonna be okay here, and I love getting them as an underdog Like I said given that they have this explosive explosive offense So the two bets you mentioned there are the Illinois money line even money and then Marcus to mask over four and a half assists That is minus one of six now if you probably those together the correlation is baked in that's only plus two twenty eight so Fandal again knows that those two bets are correlated if I had to ask you though Aiden if you wanted to pick between the Damascus this prop and the Illinois money line, which those two bets do you prefer individually? I Think I want to take the Damascus Okay, a sis prop by itself only because I think whether they win or lose he is gonna be such a big part of the game plan and Is there a world where Iowa State just gets hot from three and this they win 85 to 82 Sure, sure. I don't think there's a world where Iowa State completely shuts down Illinois offense and so I think that makes them the mask assist prop a little more enticing Like I said, I am definitely on the line. I hear and I think this is gonna be my favorite game on on this late All right So Illinois even money on the money line But preference for the Marcus to mask over four and have a sis prop minus one of six if you have avail or if you have access To that one as well, but it's going to be a fun night of basketball for sure That is Aiden Cotter makes you check him out on Twitter at Aiden Cotter FD Find his work over at Fandal research a day delight to have you on the show for today Good luck to tonight. Enjoy the basketball. We'll talk to you again soon. Awesome. Thanks a lot, Jim. Enjoy the games I will very much so That is all we have here for today as mentioned We are back once again tomorrow talking to Riley Thomas about Friday's games in the men's the sweet 16 My talk some Saturday games as well with those matchups being set there Check that out by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the Fandal YouTube page and Fandal TV plus you can find me on Twitter at Jim Saunas you can find a Fandal research on Twitter at Fandal research as well and don't forget that the MLB opening day Podcasts are up via Tom Vecchio both uncovering the spread and over on the Fandal research podcast feed I want to thank you all for tuning in and good luck tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandal podcast network