 Welcome traders to another two-day weekly market outlook for week commencing the 11th of October with me, Patrick Mulley. In the US, the focus is going to be solely on Wednesday's CPI release, with economists revising up near-term inflation projections to reflect higher energy prices, with most raising core estimates a little as well, reflecting ongoing supply-demanded balances. That said, most market watches continue to expect significant slowing in 2022 as fiscal policy turns contradictory, demand moderates and supply and demand relationships start to normalise. The consensus is for a 5.3% print versus the previous 5.3%. Also, Wednesday we receive the FOMC minutes. Operating assumption there is that a monthly reduction of the US$15 billion QE number to a dollar figure of more like 10 billion in treasuries and 5 billion mortgages is the easy answer for the committee, and it would confirm with the 2022 stop-date guidance. It is cognizant of the value of flexibility from the Fed's perspective, and therefore it will be notable if the minutes include any details surrounding the discussion of how the committee plans to execute the reduction of bond buying. Will it be an ongoing evaluation of the appropriateness or further cuts, or is it owing on the side of autopilot seen as a more prudent approach? Lastly, in the US next week, Friday sees retail sales, likely drag lower by the plunging vehicle sales. This is more a function of a lack of supply than a drop-off in demand, given the dearth of inventory to sell. The ongoing production bottlenecks and the fast second-hand car prices are up 45% this year. Outside of autos, the figures should remain positive, with rising incomes and surging household wealth, providing strong underpinnings. From a technical perspective, the dollar index continues its bullish consolidation just below the 94.50 handle. Look for any pullbacks into the Pivot and Sports Zone here at 93.50. Bullish reversal patterns there to re-engage on the long side looking for a test of the 95 handle. From there, we'll have to reassess and see if they're set back in and we see a more meaningful correction. But for now, the short-term focus is really only pullbacks into the Support Zone at 93.50 for long positions. In the Eurozone, Tuesday's German-October ZEW investor confidence is going to be closely watched. Expect moderation and sentiment both for current conditions and the expectations components. The current sentiment is weighed down by persistent supply shortages, limiting production as well as some upside inflation surprises, while expectations are clouded with uncertainty over the winter. However, both components should remain at elevated levels overall as the recovery continues. Consensuses for the economic sentiment at 24 versus previous 26.5 and current conditions 29 versus previous 31.9. From a technical perspective, the Eurodollar is attempting to put in a short-term base here. I'm watching for three-wave corrected moves back into test this 117 handle as resistance. From there, I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns, short positions, ultimately looking for a move down to test the 114.39 area. At this stage, it will take a close outside of the projected descending pitchfault resistance to re-engage bullish sentiment. And so we'll be looking for a close back over 118. Now, focus on the downside. In terms of Japan, second tier data out next week really, Monday and Wednesday, manufacturing related indicators, industrial production, machine tools, and core industrial production, all expected to come in on the weak side. From a technical perspective, the Dolly Yen popped higher on Friday and now looking for any pullbacks into the 111.72, 111.60 area to find support, which bullish reversal patterns and long positions, ultimately looking for a test of the long-awaited 130.07, and that will be a key decision point for the market. At this stage, it would take a loss of the pivot at 110.79 to suggest further weakness back down into the support zone at 109.50. In the UK, UK jobs data is going to be in focus early on Monday morning, and the employment rate front market is expecting the official jobless rate to slip to 4.4% on the back of strong jobs demand. Also noteworthy that we get a sense of September employment with the HMRC releasing its latest payroll data, this could give some clues as to how the end of the furlough scheme could unfold. Consensus is for jobless rate to come in at 4.4%, versus the previous 4.6%. Also on Wednesday in the UK, we received GDP and manufacturing output data. While the figures for August came before the large rises in energy prices seen over the last month, we were talking about a slowing growth even before the energy crisis hit. It's also noteworthy that forecast of 0.4% month over month rising output in August, implying an annual rate of 6.4% and a quarterly rate of 2.6%. This is a rising manufacturing output during the month with both the PMI and CBI surveys pointing to growth. Though this can be a volatile series prone of late to supply chain disruptions. The consensus is for GDP to come in year over year, 6.7% versus the previous 7.5%. From a technical perspective, SELIN continues to struggle just above this 130640, 130650 level as that area continues to contain the upside for now, which would pull back into the 135 handle to find fresh demand looking for a three-way corrected move up to test the descending trend line resistance coming in at 135.70 to 135.80%. From there, we look for another negative downside to ultimately challenge the 130.330 before we see a more meaningful attempt to the upside. Lastly, down under in Australia, focused on Thursday's jobless data, as in July, August, surprised with a fall in unemployment, even though there was significant outsize fall in employment. As we saw through 2020, the labour market can be very responsive to lockdowns with many deciding not to look for work given the lack of demand, inability to leave the house and or increased childcare demands. Markets looking for a further 0.9 percentage point fall in participation to 64.2%. This will see a 190K fall in the labour force, mostly offsetting the 200K loss in employment, limiting the rise in unemployment to 4.7%. In a technical perspective, the Australian dollar is testing the resistance zone 73.60 to 73.70. As bearish reversal patterns develop here and look for another negative downside to ultimately get the test of the yearly pivot just below the 70C level before we can mount the potential for a more meaningful corrected phase. At this stage, it will take a close back through 73.85 to suggest that we have further upside and we'll be looking then for a quality objective to develop versus this one structure here, which would probably take us up into the monthly range resistance at the 75 handle. As always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.