 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. And well, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the accesstrader.com nightly update show. Everybody is doing well. So let's talk about taste tape. So I think today's market really led down a lot of traders and kind of left kind of this little stank in our mouths. Most of us right throughout throughout the day. What I mean by that was, look, there's never any doubt which way the wind is blowing. Okay, I think if you guys watch the weekend video, I talked about a potential washout, right, the bulls needed a washout for any potential, a capitulation reversal, at least a kind of tradable multi-day bounce. The bulls needed to get a washout scenario, throw retail out the way, throw the baby out the bathwater and kind of reverse. And I kept on talking about on the weekend video that the last thing the bulls wanted was any type of strength in the morning, any type of gap up into strength. And that's exactly what we got, right? That's exactly what we got. And last night, the futures, you know, the Nasdaq futures were down like 60, 70 handles, not a lot, right? Not a lot, but at least you can at least have start the conversation of, hey, by the way, yeah, maybe we do reverse, maybe we don't. But we knew for sure we did not want to get any type of strength, especially pre-market. And lo and behold, that's where kind of the narrative started to kind of change form today. Pre-market, everything was pretty much flat. Some stocks were green, some stocks were red, but there was nothing there to give you a sense of, hey, this is it. This is going to be the reversal just because, again, you don't get a reversal just on a random open into strength. Again, it's very rare that you'll get a gap in gold or green in gold in any type of cycle environment. So I think the bulls, and again, it's not their fault. Again, it's not like the bulls and bearish could control overnight futures cash. But the fact that we didn't gap down, didn't get that washout, didn't get that washout scenario, throw the baby out of the bathwater scenario, really put the market participants in a very, very awkward hand today. And what I mean by that was, if you look at the final standings, you'll see the Dow down 300, I don't care about the Dow, the S&P down 1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.6%, you're not going to get a really good sense of what today's action was or more important what this action wasn't. The majority of the day, you saw half this technology names green, right? Tesla was green, Apple was green, Coinbase was green, you know, some random names here and there, even Amazon was green, then the other half were red, right? Microsoft was red, Snow was red. So it's very, very tough to get very excited about when you have a Christmas tree effect, meaning half the stock's red, half the stock's green. The greatest value we always get is when our research tells us, hey, for tomorrow, let's watch this group, obviously technology space, if they confirm the downside channels, everything gets pulled up, right? It's not Microsoft, a strong Apple is weak, it's not meta is strong, Google is weak, it's everything is strong where everything is weak. And today we had the Christmas tree effect green and red, and it led to a very undesirable day, a very, very slow, methodical day, nothing really to even talk about. There was a couple of pivots here and there, some Tesla, there was a Tesla long, but I messed that up. Tesla long, there was a snow long and then a snow short, but most of the day, the market was kind of dead. And what I mean by that is, again, it's kind of the old, the old, you know, information that kind of talk about all the time, the stock cannot go higher if the stock doesn't take out the previous day's high and the stock cannot go lower if it doesn't take out the previous day's low, and that's exactly what happened to us today, right? We gapped up, right? We gapped up for a little bit, we got rejected all Friday's highs, and we started going lower. So now that put us in this situation, the Christmas tree effect, have green, have red, but we didn't take out the previous day's low, and as the cues don't take out the previous day's low, probably most of the names that you're looking at are going to do the same. And that was where we ran into trouble, and the most important part is, again, it's okay, right? It's okay. You know, I still believe, and I'm always, you know, I'm always on the lookout because, again, I don't want to get trapped at the bottom of the range. I'm always to the point of any big gap down, especially on a lengthy continuation move like we've had now. Now, you know, we've lost the 50-day on, what, the 13th, right? Today is, what, the 26th or 13 days ago, two weeks ago. We lost the shovel, so it's been kind of almost linear down with a couple of blips of upside to the side. So we kind of know this weakness out there. We get it. You know, it's not something that is just you kind of woke up to say, wow, the market sucks. No market doesn't suck. The market is going lower. And most important part is, of this market is going lower, again, we want to always stay away from the stocks. It's been kind of going linear with the market, but stocks that are starting to break down. So that's why we talked about the names like an NET a couple of days ago, right? Names like an NET that is just coming out of a range here. And I still like it for tomorrow. Again, you can see another case scenario that didn't take out the previous days low. A name, for example, like Snow today, lost the 50-day moving average, right? But again, you can see there's a lot of meat on this bone because it starts confirming this bolinger band for tomorrow. This thing has a lot of room down. The point is, it's not down here. It hasn't been selling all for three, four, five weeks, six weeks. It's just finally starting to lose this 50-day moving average. That's one of the cases that we're still trying to find the greatest amount of value that stocks are not overly sold or overly extended. So that's why I'm looking more like names like a Snow. I'm looking more like names like an NET, right? Because just first couple of days below this channel here, even a name like First Solar. Again, always people talking about, well, this one's the strongest stock. Everybody's, everything's the strongest stock until they lose its ranges, right? Just like we talked about Tesla, you know, for last week. It was strong, it was strong, it was strong until the last 10-day moving average. It was strong, it was strong, it was strong until the last 50-day moving average, right? Everything is strong until bids get pulled and nothing, you know, nothing is spared. That's what the stock market is. It pulls everything down as a whole. And the sum of the parts kind of don't matter. So when you look at names, for example, like for tomorrow, if we continue the selling pressure, again, NET I like, right? A Snow I like. And again, this is a common denominator. They're first, they're finally either a day or two just below their crucial channels or below the 50-day moving average, or in the case of First Solar, first close or first, you know, actually, yeah, first close below the 20-day moving average. So if it starts confirming the previous-day channel, which we didn't get today, we're going to start in the next level of selling. But that was our problem today. We just didn't get enough value. We didn't get enough stocks that were coming out of their channels to the upside because, again, we're in a sell cycle, right? And we didn't get enough value to the downside because majority of the names did not take out the previous channels low and they were all mirroring the NASDAQ 100 or the QQQs. You can see here Friday's low was 272. Today's low was 273.56. We had a perfect storm of crap today, right? That's the best way of saying it. We had a perfect storm of crap. Stocks didn't have enough range to go higher until they finally got pulled and they didn't have enough fear today or enough aggression today to take out the previous-day's channel, which we kind of see here for ourselves here on the QQs. When you look at other indexes like the IWM, IWM is weaker, right? The IWM is definitely weaker. Here's a perfect scenario that they did take out the previous-day's channel and look what happens, right? Once you take out the previous-day's channel, starts a new challenge down. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial, this is, again, the lowest close, right? The lowest close we saw in a pretty, pretty long time, right? Going all the way back into the June lows and, again, it's starting to make a new level down. So the key right now is to, number one, don't get aggressive, especially to the south side at the open, right? It's incredibly important to understand that if you are selling into an area that is overextended because of how thin stocks are at the open, you're going to get squeezed back. It's just very, very evident. Again, I don't care how right you think you are, it's easier to be wrong and solvent than the other way around. So it's very, very important to understand the dynamics. However, if we do eventually get that gap down, again, I still think that play is valid. Again, we can't go straight down. It's pretty obvious. But if we do get that 3, 4, 500 point gap down, I think that is going to be the day that we finally get a turn and we get to move higher. Again, is it possible we never see that day? Of course not. It's possible that we gap down and keep going down. Again, that's what a bear market is. That's what cell cycle markets are. But again, at least we have to be prepared, right? Professionally, we have to be prepared in our minds for a potential swing back to the upside. But having said that, any green open for the bulls is just no good, guys. Again, just write this down on the sticky pad. There's no gap and goes in a sales cycle. There's just none. Unless there's some materialistic news coming from a geopolitical landscape, from the Fed, or something to the case of a data read, whether the case may be it's very, very rare, you see a gap and go. That's why you're seeing so many gap ups ever since this bear cycle started, even going back to the last two cell cycles that we started all the way back over here. Every gap up, predominantly, every gap up gets stuffed into supply and we start rolling over. So hopefully for tomorrow, if we do get a flat open or a green open, yeah, let's start watching back. Everything that's pretty much on our watch list for today is still on our watch list for tomorrow. Like look in the video, right? Except for the other names we mentioned, look in the video. It's kind of just sitting here now. It's just sitting a couple of days in a row, it's sitting on basing out. If this thing starts losing its channel, it's going to go lower, right? And here's something that, speaking of Tesla, right? So Tesla was green today. Don't say Tesla was strong. Tesla was green today. Stock has come back from 313 to 270. It wasn't strong today. It was just green today. Here's one thing. I know they have their AI event, I believe, on September 30th. I'm a very big believer in the options market, the way they make bets. And again, not that it's 100%, not that it's set in stone, but usually when the options market is betting one way, okay? And they're betting one way aggressively in short-term expiration. There's usually a reason behind it. And if you look at the bets going into that AI event, going in on the 30th, okay? They're betting pretty aggressively. We saw a whole bunch of six, seven-figure bets for the 270 weeklies. We saw some 265s. We see some 260s. And again, it has nothing to do with the event. I'm sure the company's going to say some really cool stuff and pretty neat stuff. It's just all the dynamics of where we are in the landscape. We're in a self-cycling. Every news, whether it's good, bad or indifferent, it's probably going to get sold until they start reclaiming back the 50-day moving average. This is kind of like the human nature or the AI nature when it comes to stock market, right? It's like, again, when the market is good, okay? Usually, like I'll give you an example, earnings reports, right? You guys remember when we went on this pretty good run, right? We reclaimed the 50-day moving average. This was in the middle of earning season. If you guys remember, it was a really good market because we reclaimed supply and we were going higher. So news in a weird way didn't matter. So for example, Microsoft and Google during earnings, they missed both on the top and bottom results and they both exploded higher, right? So that's kind of the flip side around. When there's a sour negative connotation going on in the market and everything is being sold, no matter how good the news is, unless Elon solves the cure for blindness and stupidity, there's probably going to be a self-cycle event, right? Because if they gap up the stock into supply and the stock is ready into supply, institutional money is putting their money where their mouths are and they're making bets that this event will get sold with six and seven figure bets. Just something to keep an eye on, something to kind of take note, getting closer to the event. So if you hear your buddy talking about, hey, we should buy Tesla into the event. Yeah, just go back to, I had one of my worst trades. If you guys remember Battery Day, right? Battery Day a couple of years ago. Yeah, okay, I was buying the Dip and Battery Day, no good. So I have a first-hand experience of what selling into an event feels like and I promised myself I would never do that again. So just keep something in mind in the back of your head as we get closer to the AI event and you start seeing and pay attention, continue to pay attention to the options market and see what's what. Other notable bets that we saw, if you guys remember a couple of weeks ago, we were watching, they were betting pretty aggressively. One of the videos we were talking about, we were like up here. They were coming for the 366. You guys remember the 366 puts, right? They were coming very, very heavy for the 366 puts. Millions and millions of dollars. Today they started coming for the October 344s in the spies. Very, very aggressive. You know, five, 10, 15 million dollars a clip. Very, very aggressive. So again, nobody's talking about, even if we get a reversal and it's one or two days, nobody's talking about the bottoms. Stop worrying about the bottoms, the tops. Just trade day to day, right? Trade day to day and make sure every single day that you're trading again, the market that you have, not the market that you want. Again, very slow day today, hopefully tomorrow we can get a lot better value and that's the name of the game. It's not about the market being open. It's how much value we get when the market is open, right guys? So have a great night everybody. Hopefully tomorrow we'll get a pretty more of a seamless session as we did today. Very slow, very, you know, nauseating and more important is again, my eyelids are open, but barely. So hopefully tomorrow we have greener pastures. Guys, have a great night everybody. I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.