 What's going on and welcome to the NBA DFS Q&A. My name is Tom Vecchio I'm one of the writers and analysts at numberfire.com here for the next 30 minutes to take your questions about tonight's massive 13-game NBA slate. There's plenty to cover. There's plenty of value plays out there Obviously let off by the Denver Nugget. So I will be taking your questions for the next 30 minutes We talk about DFS talk about some betting whatever it might be Starting off immediately with Chris from Facebook. Do you think Westbrook will have a triple double tonight? Always a good question. I assume that you might be considering betting on that This game overall I think is okay you know, certainly if it stays close if we see BAM on a bio and Tyler hero ruled in I know they're both game time decision if they're both ruled in I would certainly see that a little bit better just because the heat should be able to keep it close Let's look at his odds Westbrook to a quarter triple is only 160 like those aren't super long odds I certainly see it as a possibility, especially with LeBron out So I do like the likelihood of it I would wait until we get confirmation at a bio and hero are ruled in just because the heat will be at full strength at that point and We should be able to see a closer game than the Lakers blowing them out without some of their key players So I would certainly look there some of the player props that I already took today are Let me check real quick. I have to you to Murray over 32 and a half combined points rebounds and assist Shea yolks Alexander same thing over 32 and a half points rebound assists combined. I like the Bulls at home tonight. I like the the under in that game. I like the magic to kind of cover that spread They've been looking pretty good, especially with their starting lineup Sean on Facebook is asking best value playing tournaments with best matchup Well, the value tonight is going to be led by many members of the Denver Nuggets Whether it's PJ Dozier, Jeff Green, Michael, Michael Green and Jeff Green or Erin Gordon I think that they're all extremely solid push comes to shove if I have to choose one It's probably going to be Erin Gordon. I think he has The the most offensive upside out of that group. Michael Green is a player that we know will be out there for plenty of minutes He's not really a massive offensive threat in his own right But we know where I'm using him just because the minutes are gonna be there for him Assuming Lee in going to be in the starting lineup Sal on you to Sal on YouTube is asking how are you? I'm doing great. It's a fantastic day for sports I'm getting a lot of the rows in CP3 and Barton. I assume that means when you're running your lineups Through whatever Optimizer you're getting to rows in CP3 and Barton. Well, will Barton is I think are really really solid options tonight I know a lot of people are gonna be looking to Denver. They're gonna be saying. Oh, where are we getting this value? Where are we getting? You know some value options and they're immediately going to one of the greens plus PJ Dozier But will Barton has been really consistent this year and he's taking plenty of field goal attempts And these are of course with Jokic in the lineup so we can be looking to him the three-point Upside is there for him. He's doing enough when it comes to filling up the statue. So I really like will Barton tonight I think he's the player that I'm not gonna say he's going to be going overlooked in the grand scheme of things because he should be Very popular, but I know most people will look to the value first on Denver And I think Barton's an awesome option CP3 also a good option for the Suns going up against the trailblazers This game is a solid overundersting at two twenty three and a half. It's a close spread. We like that We know Portland plays fast. They also don't necessarily play a whole lot of defense So I'll be looking to CP3 plenty and then DeRozan You know, I think this game for where's it Chicago and Dallas? This is a spot that could go overlooked I also think that largely Oklahoma City and New Orleans will go overlooked And as you could assume Toronto Boston will probably go overlooked just giving the overunder on that slate DeRozan I think really makes probably one of my Favorite tournament options on tonight's slate just because if this game is not gonna be super popular in comparison to the other games I mean this volume of shots is unbelievable and this is Obviously Chicago being at full strength. So let's look at DeRozan overall in terms of the context of his position Whereas he's 8,500 Okay, so we can look to The guard slash small forward position at 8,500 So most people might look to spend up for Tatum if they're going at the small forward position at shooting guard It's you know spending down I think it's a little bit easier at the shooting guard position or the guard position overall compared to spending up So DeRozan is going overlooked as many options in this game. I think might You know DeRozan with that shot volume. We know he has massive scoring upside and You know 50 plus points is certainly on the table for him So I really like DeRozan the more that I'm talking about it for a tournament play overall 8,500 dollars most people try and look to get in one of these top options or take down take some value all the way down at the Lower tier you're at the guard position or forward position wherever you might be rostering him So I like DeRozan a lot. Like I said, I like the bulls at home tonight in this game Dallas I think looks kind of average to start the season. So I'll certainly be siding with Chicago at home There's plenty of value options. I wrote up that young tonight for the San Antonio Spurs 4,600 really really like not only his matchup specifically versus the Kings But I also love this game environment overall Sacramento's 10th in the league in pace We have San Antonio sitting at 4th in the league in pace. Obviously, that's amazing We have a very solid 2-23 over under with a one point spread like this is setting up for an Extremely extremely close game and the defensive matchup for him coming off the bench at the center position is amazing The King's second worst in the league when it comes to the most fated points allowed per game to center So that young is a value play. I'm all about tonight at the center position Actually, I'll say value play tonight at the power forward position. He has dual position eligibility So I'm gonna be making sure to roster him at the power forward position tonight In the optimizer setting him to power forward not center At $4,600 because I know that I will certainly be wanting to pay up for one of these top centers We're looking to have both him and your Michael Green and someone else all listed as you know Power forwards and set one of them to centers if that makes sense So that's how I'm dealing with like the dual position eligibility this year on a slate by slate basis choosing the players Then I want to be in specific spots. I'm not blocking the center position I can still afford to pay up for or not just afford But still have the option to pay up for Carleton in towns or valentine is whoever might be on a given slate So I think that's how you have to consider the dual position eligibility So kind of all over the place when it comes to some of these questions, but I think that this slate is looking phenomenal I think that we're gonna be in for an extremely high scoring slate as you can imagine I think that paying up for a tense Kumpo is of course always a great option Still no middle tin still no Brooke Lopez for the Milwaukee Bucks We have a close matchup for this game. It's three point spread four point spread Yeah, four point spread for the Knicks and the Bucks two seventeen and a half over under is good It's not amazing. You should still be looking to attend Kumpo as a Really really solid option. I know most people will be leaning on him most of the value will be coming from Denver tonight I think that is certainly an easy option and when you're looking to drop some of these players into your lineup whether it's going to be Green and Gordon and you want to take PJ Dozier It'll be very likely that you see two three Maybe even four players from Denver in certain lineups. I know I will be capping mine at three That's just something I prefer to do on not having too many players from one team So taking three of the value plays from Denver leaves you with almost 8,000 remaining per player Which allows you to do basically anything when it comes to lineup instruction now Let's just say you wanted to put that young in there at the center position 8600 per player remaining for five spots you can legitimately roster anyone you want at this spot go with the stars and scrubs build I know that's something I generally lean on that's something a lot of people like to lean on I mean at this point it's a rostering Tatum and you have to rose and Tatum You have plenty of value you have a high minutes floor and then you could decide to pay up for curry You want Luca you want Hardin you want to roster a tentacumpo. You have all the options on the slate So roster construction tonight. I I'm expecting to see plenty of Denver Nuggets in all types of lineups Across the slate so two three maybe even four Denver Nuggets in certain lineups is something that I expect to see Ricky Rubio, we know is going to be very popular Frank Kaminsky also should be popular with Deandre instill at a lineup for Phoenix even though Kaminsky is coming off the bench We see Javail McGee in the starting line if you can certainly expect Kaminsky to be popular now one of the sites that I use to look at the game flow logs It's called popcorn machine net. I know it has a bit of a weird name But you can go in and look at the specific game flow logs for each team So this is their most recent game for the Suns and we see their starters here And we see Kaminsky coming in off the bench and who he's being swapped out for is Javail McGee Where we rarely see both or rarely if ever see McGee and Kaminsky on the court at the same time because they play the same position So yes, I know that Kaminsky comes off the bench But I'll still be looking to him as a top value play on tonight's late going up against Portland So again popcorn machine net is a site that I've used for years when it comes to studying the rotations What players are coming on the court and not only what they're you know when they come on the court But we're in Phoenix go Bring up this game flow from the most recent one what they're doing in that time You can see exactly what they did in that time. How many shots they're taking exactly what they're doing You know, what kind of role they have in the offense when they actually get on the court So looking in Kaminsky, I think is a solid option at the power forward slash center position Evan Mobley not really a value play but a player that I have plenty of interest in tonight and then Kate Cunningham I wrote him up on number fire comm is one of the value plays tonight Just immense shot volume from him on a nightly basis still too cheap at $4,800 We can expect that to rise eventually but listen a player under $5,000 That's taking this volume of field go attempts plenty them coming from three-point range is something that you want to be buying into now Yes, he's been struggling to start the season not shooting very effectively or at a very high percentage He's a rookie. He's gonna have natural ups and downs to start his career But I will take this volume under $5,000 Every single day. So looking to get plenty of Kate Cunningham into my lineups Along with the value from Denver along with whatever whatever value is popping on the slate other games that I specifically like Charlotte and Memphis. I think is an amazing game environment 229 over under super high four and a half point spread We have where's Charlotte's? Uh Charlotte and Memphis Memphis is sitting 14th in the league when it comes to pace Charlotte is sitting at second So that's another matchup on top of San Antonio and Sacramento I'm two teams the top half the league when it comes to pace and then Golden State and Minnesota Another matchup of two teams in the top 10 of the league when it comes to pace all these games have high over unders This is the spread that you'd expect for Minnesota and Golden State just because Golden State's looking great to start the season But these game environments Sacramento, San Antonio Charlotte, Memphis and Golden State, Minnesota are three of the game environments I'm specifically looking to focus in on tonight on top of the value from Denver Now there's 204 and a half over under which has actually gone down since Keras Laverte has been ruled out for Indiana Right. He yeah listed us out for this game Plenty the value from Denver and then a number of options from this matchup this matchup And this matchup high over unders all teams in the top 14 of the league when it comes to pace and some of them are the top 10 The league when it comes to pace This is where I think we're gonna see a lot of popular plays just back and forth action Really the defenses for Charlotte and Memphis Sacramento, San Antonio. They're nothing to be particularly afraid of this this season So the scoring should be going back and forth plenty of three point upside for plenty of these teams Charlotte allowing the second most three pointers per game from their opponents sitting at fourteen point six This Portland Phoenix games also sitting here with both teams Allowing way too many threes Phoenix again not looking particularly strong on defense to start the year Memphis is right here going up against Charlotte I think that we're gonna be seeing plenty of three pointers in that game So I know I'll I'm gonna be taking an extra look at some of the player props in this game when it comes to Combine totals for points rebounds and assists for player threes Taking extra look here trying to find some value like the Gordon Hayward over one and a half I think is off like the line itself is awesome, but the odds on it at minus 186 is just way way too much juice That's not a spot that I'll be looking Minus 148 for Jaws still a little bit high. That's a spot that I would shift to looking at his, you know player combinations or Player just points straight up. I think that is on the table Where do we have? LaMelle balls 33 and a half the only minus 104 juice. I think that is certainly a spot I looked at you to Murray for the San Antonio Spurs really liking this matchup going up against the Kings Sal was saying Robert Williams for value with Rubio and Bay, you know, I'm a big fan of Robert Williams specifically when it comes to Tournaments on a nightly basis just because the volume of blocks that he can have now Obviously, he hasn't had a ton lately But he has always shown this ability since you know He entered the league a few seasons ago with the Celtics where him reaching for three four five blocks is Certainly doable, right? It's obviously not happening on a consistent basis, but Those fantasy points from blocks are just so so valuable that that's what allows him to access this 50 point ceiling You know 40 to 50 points is something that's Certainly capable from him and he's only $5,700. I again, I don't expect too many options in this Toronto and Boston game To be overly popular just given the fact that has a 206 over under which is Very low compared to some of the other games that we have on the slate. I will say already took Scotty Barnes over what is it 22 and a half? Combined points rebounds and assists really liking Scotty Barnes and his game this season for Toronto Really good usage really good numbers for him. He's playing a ton of minutes. He should be out there for you know Again 30 to 35 minutes Loving what I'm seeing from just in terms of a real-life game and of course the fantasy production is great So I like Scotty Barnes tonight going back to the time Lord you want to go to him in tournaments I think that's an awesome play that blocking potential will always be there Granting him again a 40 50 point ceiling when he's only 50 700 I think that this mid tier of more specific centers could be a little bit Under the radar tonight because there are so many value options again at power forward that you could roster at center So mobile I think could go overlooked a little bit Bobby Porter said another solid game last night I think you'd be going back to him against the Knicks That's certainly fine. I know Speaking of the Knicks they have both Mitchell Robinson and New Orleans Noel listed as questionable for this game So I guess that could open up minutes for Taj Gibson if they're both ruled out So that's something to monitor if you're looking for more center value. He's only $3,800 So that could be a spot that you want to go. It takes some more value at center take Jeff Green Aaron Gordon PJ Dozier from Denver all players that are 5,000 and below Aaron Gordon the most expensive but Dozier and Green and the other green they're all under 4,000 right 3,800 3,700 and PJ Dozier is 37 right PJ Dozier 3,600 so Multiple options from Denver all on the table tonight Take three of those players drop them into your lineups You can afford to pay up for literally whoever you want at that point again. I'm big on that young tonight He's one of my favorite values among the the power forward slash center position. So is Frank Minsky I think you can be looking there very very firmly Carmelo is shooting pretty hot especially when at home for the Lakers this season $5,800 not a you know true value play but that game I have moderate interest in again, I'm kind of waiting on the news for Bama to bio and Tiger hero for the heat if they're ruled in I I'm going to have more interest just because the heat will be at full strength They should be able to keep that close I'm pretty sure most of the player some of the player props like aren't listed for this yet Jimmy's is up. Bam is listed at 20 and a half. That's for points and assists where the points read So these are these are solid lines again Assuming that they're on track to play or whatever the quote was from them that they are expected to play Has me again more interested in this game For the heat honestly the Lakers plus five is looking pretty good right now I think that's a spot that I might want to look a wait till closer to tip off to have final news on those players Also liking it the over in this golden state Minnesota game. I think that's pretty clear This 223 line for Portland and Phoenix has me a little bit hesitant You know, I almost can make a case for both the over or the under Which is I think I'm spot that I'll just ultimately stay away because I don't have a strong taking either direction I would lean the over in the Sacramento and San Antonio game with the spurs obviously one point favorites I think this opened up as a pick-up or half a point spread when it to the podcast So I'm I don't have a strong take on who's gonna win that game I know there's gonna be a lot of points on a back-and-forth action Which I absolutely love from a fancy perspective same thing from Charlotte and Memphis I think you make a case that either team wins that game But the 229 point over under certainly something I want to focus in on again Kate Cunningham another big value play that I'll be going back to tonight's Projecting very well 32 minutes and twenty eight point four fan two points Well, you have them on number fire comm you certainly look to him as a solid value play among the guards tonight Javail McGee I think is again a fine value play But I will be siding with Kaminsky Over McGee when it comes to the exposure that I have to the two players always a little bit more Kaminsky due to that Scoring upside that he has so I will be looking there. I think tonight's slate will come down to Picking and and not only picking but getting the right Denver players because if you Have too much exposure to the wrong Denver players That could be a bit of a downfall for your line of sight again Expecting to see two three four options from Denver in one lineup for a lot of people Now if I had a rank the Denver value plays on tonight's slate I think Aaron Gordon is a is clearly number one. Excuse me. Yes, Aaron Gordon would be clearly number one I'm gonna say Barton is my favorite option on Denver, but he's not I'm not gonna consider him a value So if I'm ranking all of Denver Barton's number one Gordon's number two But Gordon would be the best among the value plays excluding Barton Then would be PJ Dozier then Jeff Green and then Jamaica Green. That's how I would rank them So Gordon Dozier Jeff Green Jamaica Green among the value plays, but I still like Barton number one overall on the nuggets Not, you know Not just value place. That's a spot that I would be looking. I love will Barton's three point upside And of course a close spread is great in this game Grimm on YouTube is asking Doug McDermott Siddy Bay Josh Giddy Dean Wade Isaac Acoro or Jay Sean Tate start two of them Okay McDermott Bay Giddy Wade Acoro or Tate two I would lean towards Jay Sean Tate For Houston this game is up here. I would lean towards Tate for Houston and then Josh Giddy is really looking solid for Oklahoma City and This match up against you know outside of this one game where he didn't necessarily do a whole lot But the minutes are still consistent from him He's still filling up to score the the statute which we'd like to see seven and four peripherals from him even on a down game You know when he scored it less than that from the field I think we can look to of course this game isn't amazing But he's still plenty of peripheral stats that bolstered by the steals which we know he can certainly rack up I would lean Tate and Giddy in that spot the matchup versus The pelicans is not something that you need to be afraid of the fourth most fan to points per game against shooting guards So Tate and Giddy would be my answer for those You know, it's not like I don't have interest in City Bay or you know Dean Wade tonight But they are a half a step behind those two players for me You know this matchup for the Pistons and the Rockets obviously should be very exciting between Jalen Green and Kate Cunningham obviously the top two picks from last year Should be just an exciting game to watch plenty of young talent on both sides. I know I'll be tuning into that one outside of the Outside of the what is it these these games here that I just want to have the most interest in in terms of a fantasy aspect I want to be watching those overall So again Denver leading the slate when it comes to the injury notes and and the value that we're getting or should say injury Slash suspension notes for Denver. So we're getting plenty of value With them you can of course look to pay up for any of the top stars on tonight's slate I'm Luke warm on Luca. No pun intended I think he's a fine option on tonight's slate. I know I have a bit more interest in spending up for curry on tonight's slate I have a bit more interest in spending up for Do you to Murray? I know that they're somewhat comparable in prices all of them their salaries are all pretty comparable I have more interest in curry and Murray over Luca Donchich tonight. That's just you know my take on things I think that we're gonna be seeing better game environments in both of them The both of those matchups compared to Dallas and Chicago So I'll be leaning a bit more on them When it comes to the forward position Obviously attend to Kupo is an amazing option And I think that we should be seeing Durant slightly less popular compared to attend to Kupo and Davis just because We're dealing with a 10 point spread for the Nets and a 210 over under This is a just a better matchup for the Bucks in terms of the game environments and the same thing for LA and Miami So if that makes Hardin and Durant less popular overall I think that they make better and better toward men plays at that point I would certainly side with attend to Kumpo if you're leaning in terms of a cash game Sallis saying ended with the 378 last night construction is so key swapped out Covington and Because the clip and but the Clippers guard said well sure absolutely and that's That's a key. You know construction is key. You have to be you know making sure you are Capping your exposures the right way making sure you have enough exposure to a certain player All those things are very very important Dave on YouTube is asking with Yoko chping out and Davis being a game-time decision Who just suggests as a must-play center? I think Davis is trending towards that. He's available to play Who's probable now? So that's a good indication for him a must-play at sector It depends on what your line of construction looks like And are you looking for a top tier must play because there's a ton of value like plays at center or players that you can roster at center Drew you banks it generally gets the start for San Antonio. I have a bit more interest in that young tonight You can of course roster to Michael Green at the center position offering immense value for Denver He should be very very popular so it depends on what your line of construction looks like if you want to spend down There's a ton of value place if you want to spend all the way up I Mean towns is always a great option. I think Davis is gonna play I think he's also a solid option down Tunis I think is another player that could go overlooked just being super consistent without Brandon Ingram in the lineup And even when Brandon Ingram was in the lineup, he was looking super super consistent So I'm on board with down Tunis every night double doubles every night going for close to 40 feinting points every night So I don't think there's a true must-play at center tonight It's more about are you spending up or down because that was where you could focus your Your player allocation. There's plenty of value plays at center tonight or players You can roster at center tonight go to that young go to Jamaica green go to Frank Kaminsky. You could even go to Precious at shoe. I know some people who are gonna be on him at $5,000 continuing to play solid minutes for the Raptors again I'm a little bit Luke warm on him overall just because this game environment is Rather uninteresting to me a 206 over-under is just not the same as Getting that young with a 223 over-under. I mean, that's just it's just a fact. So I know some people will be on pressure to chew up Top tier I would say if roster Davis, he's listed as probable. He should be good to go I would go with anything Davis just the usage and the floor that he has with LeBron out of the lineup You know close five-point spread, which I think will come down a little bit especially Just given the betting that we'll see on the Lakers They are just a very popular team to bet on it should come down a little bit. I'll be on Plenty of Anthony Davis tonight Thoughts on Robinson Earl tonight. I think you know, I think he's fine in terms of How I would rate him Overall like he's fine. It's a 13 game slate Like I don't have a strong take on plenty of players if you want to roster him tonight It's a fine overall option. I'm not like jumping out of the way to To go to him tonight Okay, see My my lost here without seeing them right here. I Think he's just a fine overall option like I'm not Going out of my way to play him, but if I end up with some of him in my player allocation I think that's fine Right. It's just a matter of just a matter of how many do you want to lap the field when it comes to your exposure? You want to be underweight on the field? Again, I think it's a fine play go to him the values there the matchup against the pelicans isn't overly difficult It's kind of just my take it's kind of my take on a lot of players tonight I it's a 13 game slate like I can't be super confident or you know about every single player with 2016's times five players like 130 players. I'm not gonna have a strong take about everyone That's just what it comes down to. I think he's fine on tonight's late in the grand scheme of things Top pay-up plays and the top tier Salas asked me on on YouTube overall, of course It tends to group I was going to be an amazing option. I really like curry tonight I don't care that he had an 83 game point or 86 points the other night I said it the other I said on the podcast today where ultimately this is a one per top 1% outcome for him The 50 to 60 point range is really what his production could be I'm more interested in the game environment overall regardless of what he did in his recent game I'm looking to this game overall the 223 over under and two teams in the top ten of the league when it comes to offensive pace And yes, his shot volume is going to be at the same level every single night The 28 field goal attempts he took the other night are a bit of an outlier We should be expecting to see him in the high teams. So 83 points 86 points, whatever was the other night. It doesn't matter I'm gonna be looking back to curry whether he had 83 points or 38 points the other night I think it's more about the game environment against Minnesota with a strong over under two teams in the top ten of the league when it comes to haste Trey on YouTube is asking any Denver plays as a must or you pivot away from chalk No, when there's clear value and clear chalk in the NBA. It's for a reason It's because these players are projecting. Well, they're projected to see plenty of minutes. They are extremely affordable Between Dozier, Jeff Green, Michael Green, Aaron Gordon, they're all very very affordable I don't get cute when it comes to NBA. These players are projecting for so many minutes. They're gonna be out there Again, I'm ranking them Aaron Gordon Dozier, Jeff Green, Michael Green in that order when it comes to Denver I do not pivot away from the chalk. There's certain chalk plays I will limit how much exposure I have to but I am very very On-board with just taking the chalk and then trying to differentiate at the top tier when it comes to those players All right, so that does it for today's Q&A I'll be back next Wednesday for Another edition of this 30 minutes ask me questions about the night NBA slate You can follow me on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom until next time. Good luck in your contest