 All right, very good morning. It is Friday 28th of June So happy Friday as you can see from the photo to the side of me Of course the main event of the week is just beginning today and tomorrow. This is a picture of the The kind of fat they call it the family photo, but this is a pretty unfriendly family at this particular point in time always quite telling I think this photograph because Because you kind of get a good sense of the the power players the relationships. So what's interesting here is Trump in a very aligned with Mohammed bin Salman in this situation obviously a very Sure relationship that the US have been trying to lock in if actually have been reading a lot of the news, you know the US delegation from From Bolton to Lighthizer to Trump to everyone else in between in his team They've been in Bahrain. They've been in like Abu Dhabi Oman They've been everywhere to try and appease their Middle Eastern partners about the dealings With Iran of course with the increased tension at the center of that is obviously keeping a firm relationship with Saudi Arabia So those two obviously together, you know, everyone waving, but those two too busy Talking to each other, then you got Abbey And she the Chinese president of course used the most kind of the high-level influential person That's going to really drive from a market's point of views over here on this side. So yeah gonna be interesting, of course Three Theresa May is there bless her soul. She's Managed to catch a bit of a break the last few weeks is obviously focus has turned to borrow Boris. So What is the schedule? This is it I mean, we actually looked at this yesterday and it's something to just kind of overlay on your economic calendar But remember they're in Osaka, Japan. So time differential between London and Osaka is about eight hours so actually if this Agenda is still accurate if Trump is meeting with Shinzo Abbey Abbey of the Prime Minister of Japan and that's not going to happen to 8 30 I believe this is all local time. Well, that's That's not going to be until quite a bit later In terms of that's local time translating the 430 I guess London and then Modi the Prime Minister of India That won't be until what 515? So even the first conversations that could be interesting because a lot of this has been focused on the trade dialogue between Japan and India where Trump has been quite critical Again, just posturing. He's already been talking and Japan have already been quite forthcoming about moving facilities to America and so on and so forth Long story short, I wouldn't be looking for too much in the way of an ever general asset class or global sentiment reaction because I think Abbey and Modi are Aren't as significant by any means as to what's going to happen on Saturday, which of course is when What's going to be London time? Probably late afternoon early evening You'll start getting the headlines then about the conclusion of the meeting face-to-face between Trump and G So really if you are trading if you have any open positions I would encourage you to close those before the end of today I certainly wouldn't be recommending if you're trading short medium term to have an open position over the weekend because There's just too much uncertainty as much as we could be of the belief on balance that ultimately The The conversation between these two leaders has been relatively well managed to the point where markets now I think will be comfortable with not a lot of concrete evidence to move forward Which could be deemed disappointment The fact is is that anything can happen and with these twos being so critical to market sentiment right now The the size of reaction you could see if the unexpected did occur I think would be significant and you don't want to get on the wrong side of that when the markets reopened So yeah, definitely I'd be inclined to close out all positions You have an added factor as well here because it's quarter-end and it's month-end So that does tend to lead to what can be fairly erratic price movement today So with that in mind today, I think you need to take into consideration these additional variables as it could be Quite a tricky one to trade That being if everyone's just kind of sitting on the sidelines, you might see a Lack of commitment. You might see a range market You might see little false breakouts that could get you caught out and then you throw in this month and quarter end activity Which generally adds to the whipsaw price action. It could be a tricky one to navigate So perhaps a degree of conservatism could be warranted under these conditions I'm sure Sam will cover this more in detail. All right I'm just going to run through the news quite quickly though and get you up to speed of what's going on I'll leave the rest to mr. North, but Boris Johnson This was the headline from this morning on the Brexit side keeping the option of suspending Parliament for a no-deal Brexit now I just really on this point wanted to share an incredibly good resource And this is this I'm not sure if you guys are aware of this YouTube channel They're called TLDR news and Basically what this is is for example this one here this is a 11-minute video via animated graphics of taking the purpose of this channel is to take highly complex Legal issues predominantly surrounding Brexit and to put them in a very Understandable digestible little bite-size animated videos to explain it and these are so expertly done that things like Let's say May's proposed Brexit deal, but there was one I was watching yesterday, which was basically Boris Johnson's deal and His three options and what do they all mean and so on and so forth. So I would highly recommend this channel Obviously, it's YouTube. It's free to subscribe but things like understanding Boris Johnson's three options basically he's got three the first being a renegotiation of the withdrawal bill and as you'll As we've discussed before and as you'll find out in the videos That's not going to happen. Then you've got his article 24 this gap Proposal of which he's been pushing but again as you'll quite quickly and I'm sure the market will come to understand That's not going to happen and you've got a third more nuclear option, which is this pro prorogation of Parliament now that word in itself might be something new for you But essentially this is one of those kind of antiquated laws of the old system of UK politics of which Summises the parliamentary session for this period of time and once we go into that period It means that no other business can be addressed by members of Parliament So this was kind of like what Dominic Rab was suggesting when he was talking about Not having Parliament even the option to stop no deal like what we've heard from the legal challenge of Dominic Grieve Yesterday so if you shut and let basically dissolve Parliament then you're basically going to run into then the fact that you're going to get to October 31st, and you could then have this no-deal scenario So this is what this headline is referring to when it's saying Johnson keeping option for suspending Parliament for no-deal Brexit so One thing when you watch these these explainer videos though it comes quite evidently clear I think that what Boris is doing is is obviously managing this public sentiment around This kind of no-deal Brexit party success story of the European Parliamentary election, but My feelings are still the same in the fact that this is just going to get extended again If anything, I can't help but Phil still talking to Sam about this yesterday that you know Even the Brexiteers will look back with weary or misty eyes with Theresa May going You know, what were we thinking that was the best chance that we had to deliver what was somewhere near close to To Brexit at the time. So yeah, what's this doing for markets this morning? Again, nothing the point I want to make here just to stress is this this particular YouTube channel. It's excellent. I would highly recommend it Elsewhere we've got an OPEC meeting of course the delayed one that's now going to be taking place at the beginning of next Week this is particularly important because it's talking about the potential or not for the roller of the existing deal It's for the second half of 2019 Now the reality is probably that this will happen But the idea here is that Russia is a little bit More on the fence than the more committed members like Saudi, Iraq and the UAE who are all very much willing to continue But remember OPEC on its own as a group or collective of export petroleum producing nations Is quite weak because now They're being almost superseded by the two new powerhouses of America and Russia when it comes to global size of oil production So the point being here is that OPEC on its own is not enough to really counteract the global supply and demand balance You need OPEC plus And even though the plus is a collection of other non OPEC related countries, we're talking predominantly Russia Now I do think Russia will commit to this but this is obviously going to be a key point To look out for when those meetings come more on this I'm sure will be rumored in the weekend press So keep an eye on my twitter account of the weekend any whispers I hear about the outcome of that meeting I'll be sharing over the weekend um One interesting fact I saw here Was uh, this was a really good article. I did share this with you guys I emailed it out in the distribution list this morning But if you scroll down it talks about basically the price point needed for each of these OPEC nations And the share of which they represent of OPEC production. So looking at angola here, for example They're pretty small from a production point of view. They account for less than five percent But they need 80 dollar oil to basically counteract their They're outgoing and kind of have their fiscal break even if you like, but if you scroll down the interesting one, of course is If we go down Russia according to the Russian energy ministry, of course So that does need to be taken with a degree of a pinch of salt. They say they need 40 bucks So this is interesting though if russia needs 40 bucks The problem we have is Saudi Arabia Needs 85 bucks as we know because of their ambitious Diversification plans of their economy away from dependency on the cell of oil Now what was interesting though as a statistic was that in the month of may Given how uncompliant countries like libya, nigeria and so on have been In the month of may alone on average um OPEC or Saudi Arabia their OPEC plus deal as it exists today Say that they need to reduce their production by 322,000 But in the month of may they were cutting production by 943,000 so in essence Saudi Arabia are 293 compliant I mean, that's the depth of which Saudi have to hit this target in order to Realize This goal about the vision 2030 policy that they have in place and this you know back stopping multiple nations by a degree of close to 300 percent It's quite incredible actually when you look at the numbers All right elsewhere bank of japan Not too much movement in the yen overnight, but I think that's just a fair reflection of that this type of headlines not really new Bank of japan policymakers debated the feasibility of ramping up stimulus at their meeting in june This is basically a summary of their opinions from their previous policy meeting Discussions, but of course this heightened speculation that potentially then in the near term the next gathering We could see a more dovish move by the central bank But that pretty much fits in step with most of the other central bank Maneuvering or policy forward guidance that we've had in the last week or so Quick look at the chart though before I do hand you over on the technical side to sam Um a touch of dollar weakness just coming through as europe's come in so a little bit of an uptick here in euro dollar and cable Just looking on the headlines if anything new has come out Just have a look Yeah, french cpi's come out 1.4 percent it gets expected 1.1 You'll remember we had the french state cpi's excuse me the german state cpi's yesterday And they were surprisingly strong And so if you actually think about it you've got the the german french numbers bouncing back a little bit in the month of june And that was a real contentious point of focus for the ecb about forward-looking indicators were indicative of weakening inflationary pressures So maybe this kind of gives the euro a little bit of reason to rise the bund obviously backs off a little bit as well on the back of those numbers Elsewhere gold has seen a quite a quite a decent Range overnight actually So if I just highlight it here, that's actually the asia pacific session And it's not really that common that we see such large movement But again, this is a fair reflection of the fundamental risk in play which is the g20 and of course Being in japan and the eight-hour time differential the g20 is in full swing Obviously already as we come into the market and was overnight So There was trump was speaking overnight at 1 2 a.m in the morning talking about japan and india Markets have come back down. We've seen a bit of a flurry here of price activity more recently if we just broke through What was that previous resistance turn support probably explains that extension on that wick on that breakthrough 1415 But i'll leave it at that for the moment in terms of looking at the charts looking at the calendar outside of the g20 What have we got? It's pretty quiet UK GDP is coming out But I must stress that this is q1 final reading So in a similar vein to the u.s figures that we had yesterday I wouldn't be really looking for too much out of this data set expected to be unrevised at 0.5 And 1.8 percent quarter on quarter in year one year the italian cpi data coming out later So let's see if it fits in step with what we've seen with the general increase From may to june like we have seen in france this morning in germany yesterday Then from the u.s side of things personal income spending core pce data canadian gdp and in the afternoon a couple of interesting things chicago pmi Is expected to see a slight move lower from the prior month but still remaining way above the 50 level of expansion The michigan sentiment reading again is final So the The lesser market moving of the two releases that we see for michigan. If any oil traders That kind of lagging indicator if you like of the oil production activity in america you get the bakey-hoos rig count All right, that is it from my side. I'm going to hand you over to sam Keeping things relatively brief this morning Because markets are relatively flat just given the fact that you know all eyes are on the g20 at this point Okay, guys enjoy your day and have a fantastic weekend. Thanks very much Hi guys, hope we're all doing well and had a good week so far Yeah, with the with the g20 quarter end month end whether you'd want to get too involved in this market um I'm not too sure. I mean something to look at at gold this morning You can see that spike higher to come lower. I think that could be indicative of of the the sort of trade we see In reversals when you think it might be getting away and and whatnot. I mean looking at the potential levels of of interest for gold if I was Uh to trade and and be interested you can see the bottom end of this range where we started the week at 1404 Point one is the level we have marked up s1. It is going to be key for the week So I'll be looking for the balls to defend that should we get down But of course that would be a big move from from the top Pivot looks to me like a good enough area. We had quite good resistance around there. Yes They before breaking through and and finding support that would be somewhere I'd half be looking at But you can see just how far we've gone To the upside and to come back down It doesn't look like the easiest market to be trading at the moment. So have a quick look at how The pivot levels responded Not amazing choppy around the R2 R1 has broken through a couple of times and it doesn't look too great As an opportunity to trade however when the market is like this and this could be where you get those little Trades once we get breaks of of trends and and stuff like that So you can see a couple of times when it's just hovering around an area We push higher to then break break down and and that I guess work both to the upside A couple of times enter the downside you can see here So maybe short term trades not looking to have too much risk that would be the way I'd be looking to go about it And in terms of key levels for the remainder of The the quarter And the day we were talking yesterday About the s&p and the importance Really of this low that we had which was of course then the high from the 11th And low from the 19th as an area to to keep an eye on into the the close of the week That is is certainly it And then if we were to push back above 39 which has been the high For a while and then back above 42 We're suddenly now looking at pushing on back to those all-time highs Of course, so we're in this bit of a range which we expected us to to be in for the g20 It might well be we gap higher or lower from the monday But unlikely to have too much movement as of yet in a sustained direction just looking at yesterday in the day before It was a tricky market to maybe predict what was what was going to go on Opportunity wise if you do want those little breaks having a look at these trend lines from those lows Maybe but you can see how choppy it's been from there Whether you'd want to get too involved not too short Having a look at the the euro It's been stuck in this range For for a while we had a little break higher at the beginning of the week Which marks up yesterday with the r1 which would have attracted people for a possibility to get short didn't quite come in The s1 however and the low from the 25th work quite well Initially in the morning and whether we can get above Where we're trading now, which is obviously a bit of a resistance point from the higher the day But where we can get back up to that higher the range or even down to the low I think I'd only really want to get involved at x and x here to be honest and prioritizing a break rather than the range trade and that's not going to happen today Unless it really kicks on Aussie dollar is a market where We were looking yes their potential Longs and eventually it did break the the high that offered us a bit of support this morning The key level I've got marked up just below the The r2 today that high from the beginning Of june quite a key level Can we get a test of that today? I wouldn't be too surprised if we do we're not far away From that now I would expect a bit of resistance certainly on the first test of that With this market probably worth having a couple of these trend lines on from the highs of each day matches up a similar level And then to the downside We're just getting squeezed in and touched maybe the opportunity could come later on on a break of that But 70 39 and the r2 would be a pretty interesting point to see some sort of resistance Yesterday's high has acted as support for the further push to the upside and we're just testing that r1 is the dollar just weakening a touch Pound is similar to euro in in that. I'm not looking to get too involved in it range Found trading the s1 yesterday's low all working quite well the r1 I think it probably would have stopped a few people out to be honest But on paper looked like a good enough trade to move in that range higher Um Towards the highs that we have back on the 25th after noon I think the amount of times we're hitting this low the opportunity to sort of get short back down to The low that we had on The friday last week lower friday could be a little opportunity along with s1 there as well But not expecting too much in the way of movement to the upside above the pivot. You've got 27 47 and 41 which We found initial support at yesterday before a breakdown Along with the r1 as well could be a little opportunity. You can see yesterday. We broke this this trend In the afternoon around 230 percent possible opportunity there as and mentioned the With the the yen not doing too much Despite g20 going on you wouldn't necessarily want to have Positions on over the weekend for any of these markets let alone Your safe havens or riskier assets, but certainly looking at that r1 this morning This was an area we were looking at yesterday around the pivot and the high from the 26th that it offered a good level of resistance At quarter past three whether you were trading that or not But we've also had this trend line break So this could be a useful Guide for sentiment just around the markets now we've broken below it can equities just push on a bit You can see this is a little guide of sentiment and just having a look maybe in the us after that break where you can see us stocks similar breaking higher So that correlation working quite well Not necessarily that's not a bad trend line to be fair in s&p As well so keep an eye on that yen that trend line just for a guided sentiment for Your risk assets or safe havens Um Let's have a quick look So you've got three minutes until the open for the DAX We'll just finish up on that as the euro just pushes to a high you can see this little range that we're in here And you've got to imagine with the the volatility that comes a quick break above that is certainly on the cards Or the other opportunity Short term of course Maybe a break of this trend line and the pivot to target the low but a small range to start the day for DAX And as and mentioned not looking to get too aggressive holding positions Over the weekend At all hope you will have a good training day an excellent afternoon And even better weekend