 you're seeing a lot of really stretched out charts. And again, like I said, we really have to stick to the names, in my opinion, that are, you know, coming out of a tight range. And if you don't see that tight range, it's very, very tough to continue to push stocks at these orbital levels. So let me give you guys some idea of what I'm looking at what I mean by tight range. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesotrader.com. We can update, show hope everybody is doing well. First and foremost, I want to wish all the phenomenal dads and the single moms a happy Father's Day weekend. Again, a parent's job is absolutely the most crucial part of life. I don't care what you do for a living, how much money you want to make or you think you're making. There's nothing more gratifying than raising a child and putting that child in a position to succeed in life and whatever he or she is focused and has a passion for. So God bless all you guys, especially the single moms or the single dads out there, to doing and continuing to doing such a phenomenal job. If you are brand new to the channel guys, welcome aboard. Thank you very much for spending 10-15 minutes with us, like, share, comment. We always love comments to hear what your view is on the markets, what your experience level is, and from your point of view of what you think is going to happen next. That's always a great way to engage and always meet absolutely new people. So welcome aboard, welcome aboard, subscribe, and all that good stuff to continue supporting the channel. Thank you very much. So let's talk about the numbers. Numbers continue to be pretty staggering. This is a chart of the S&P. S&P is up 26% from last, was it last November, last October lows, staggering that's 2.6% on the week. Now, it's actually pretty amazing. The NASDAQ composite will look at the cues as a point of reference here up 3.3% for the week. That is best performing week since last March. It is up 35%, almost 36% for the first six months of the year, and that's kind of where I want to start off with. You hear a lot of people talking about the market is overbought, the market is overbought, and when you look at the tape and go, wow, it does look super overbought, I don't think the market is overbought. I think you're looking at the tape a little bit. I don't want to use the word misguided. Obviously, everybody has an opinion, but you're looking at a little bit skewed, the information a little skewed. The market, in my opinion, is overextended, right? We've been talking about that for weeks, doesn't mean you're not going to buy stocks, doesn't mean I'm not going to buy stocks, it's still phenomenal action. The market has nothing to do with that. I can make a case that the market is overextended. Again, you have this incredible, especially the last three week rally, the cues went from 329 to 370s, right? That's pretty extended, but the market's not overbought, okay? Because if you go back to 2022, we were down 31.5, 32% for the year, then if you look at the calendar year, right, we are net up a little bit less than 4%. So we're not overbought. We're just a little bit overextended on this interval. The one thing that I keep on seeing, especially new traders, they don't believe it's going to end. And again, it sounds like a broken record, anybody's been trading for a long time, even up here at these levels, you're starting to get very, very defensive. Doesn't mean the market's going to come in. It doesn't mean we're looking to start shorting stocks at the open. We're not saying any of that. It's more of the continuation of overextended stocks, right? Overextended names continue to print new highs, but the only difference that we saw this week versus last week is the options market. And the options market, if you've been watching this broadcast for a long, long time, you know, in the last three, four years, how I've been paying attention to a lot of the options market because that's really dictating short-term institutional money flow. And unlike the last three weeks, so we've been seeing ridiculous nonstop out of the money, whether they're rolling up, whatever the case may be, deep out of the money calls, we really didn't see that Thursday into Friday. And maybe it's something, maybe it's nothing, you can make a case that, well, you know what? The market is closed on Monday. Maybe people just weren't putting down bets for the next week, losing an extra day before expiration. Maybe that resumes come Tuesday. Maybe it does, right? Maybe it does. But this is really the first week that I didn't see, for example, like, you know, really massive option flow coming in on Tesla for this week. It's been an incredible magic carpet ride. Same thing with the video, same thing with Amazon, same thing with Meta. It's like almost like the big players, for example, left early Thursday, maybe into Friday, went to the Hamptons, whatever the case may be. And there just wasn't panic buying going through this week. And now if you combine that with, well, you believe the market is a little over extended, and you could be the biggest bull in the world, and you'll turn around and go, well, the queues were three weeks ago, 50 points lower. It's very, very tough to start a position. Trading is a different store. We will always find ranges, we'll always find trades, upside pivots, downside pivots. But from the point of starting, starting a swing position when the Nasdaq just rallied, the queues just rallied, 50 points in three weeks, even the most aggressive bull is going to say, well, maybe not now, right? Maybe not now. And that's exactly where we kind of are right now. We're a little bit stretched out in the interval on all the indexes you've got the queues. We talked about the spies, right? Just an absolutely stellar move on the spies. The IWM, if you guys remember, the IWM broke out above this 182 level. It's doing incredibly well. Again, now it's just kind of basing out here. The Dow Jones industrial average again up 1.3% for the week. Again, it's only fed 30 Dow components. But again, you could clearly see that the momentum in the market is still frustrating. The perma bear and I get it and everybody gets it. One thing we always talk about every single day, especially at morning strategy, and you started seeing that towards the end of this week. A lot of people, not just at the webinar, I think just a lot of new traders overall, they're way too excitable, right? And when you start looking at 28 different symbols at the open, what about this one? What about that one? What about this one? What about that one? You can tell subconsciously how the FOMO is building up, right? Nobody should be looking at 18 different, like I shouldn't be getting 18 different symbols at the open. And if I had to ask another 300 people that would give me another 300 symbols, everybody's relaxed, right? Especially at the open. And you saw that your first hand, what happens if you're over excitable, come, you know, kind of let the open it. Like, I'll give you a perfect example. Like, look at Microsoft's chart, right? Here's a 60 minute view of Microsoft. So Microsoft had a great run on Thursday into Friday's session. They ran this thing up five pre-market. And what they did was they pulled right away. You know, so you're talking about a move, a $10 move from top to bottom on Microsoft, because people were getting too excitable. The most important part we're always remembering in this type of environment, guys, number one, remember every single great market, okay? And you could go back to history. It's not just me saying it. I've traded in 2000. I traded in the generational bottom of 2009. I traded in the pandemic bottom of March, March of 2020. How did it all end, right? It all ended exactly the same way. The end result is still higher, right? Absolutely. But from the trading point of view, from the day to day consistency of organic flow in the market, the market always is going to end its magnificent run. The question is, do you have the visors on, right? We talk about this all the time. And the key is every single morning, again, to have your plan, right? Absolutely. If you love, you know, for example, right, if you're looking for a stock like Tullo that's consolidating really, really well, right, watch it, but don't get excited, right? Don't get excited, breathe. It doesn't have to confirm Tuesday. It doesn't have to confirm Wednesday. Hell, it doesn't have to confirm at all. You always have a plan. You always have in the back of your mind that, hey, great markets in the past have always been pulled. Always have a contingency plan, right? Know the channel, know the bottom channels of the previous day's range for all the high-flying stocks. And just be wary, hey, if these high-fly stocks and as great as Tesla has been, as great as Nvidia has been, as great as Microsoft has been, be conscious, right? Don't be naive. Be conscious. Hey, if they do start losing the previous day's range, well, I can have a viable two-sided play here. The market's been great. It's been linear. We've taken advantage of the market, but just in case, right? I know it sounds crazy that the market's going to have a down day, but just in case, be prepared on both sides so you're not quarter of guard. And your most important part is, guys, nobody should be starting a new swing Tuesday on especially in the Nasdaq market where the keys are up 50 points in three weeks. Which doesn't make any sense. You're literally, forget about jumping off the 12th floor. You're jumping off the 212th floor. I think everybody can agree. I don't believe everybody is so unbiased, excuse me, so biased in their opinion and so close-minded that I think even the biggest bulls will have to agree. The market needs a healthy rest. It really does. One day, two day, three day, just for some of these charts to reset, wouldn't it be nice? Again, I'm not saying it's going to happen, but wouldn't it be nice if Nvidia could come and just retest the five-day moving average? Is that really crazy? That's 10 points from here. When nobody's talking about Nvidia going down to 300, but just an orderly back test. And if you are permable, let these stocks breathe a little bit. Start buying some stock on the five-day moving average. And if they hold the five-day moving average, you know the short-term trend is still intact and you can still go long. Even a name like Tesla has been an absolute rock star. At least let it pull into the five-day. Maybe even come into the 10-day. It's so much more beneficial for every single stock to get a rest so these charts can reset. So when you're buying your next leg up, you say these stuff, okay, they held the five-day. They held the 10-day. It's time to resume. I'm going to patiently wait for the next channel, the previous channel to confirm, to get long. That's understandable. That's what a bull market is. And again, if you look at, for example, Tesla, look what it's been doing since May. You see this orange line? Every single time it hit the orange line, bounced, bounced, right, bounced, bounced. Even the last time, right? Just gap down, reclaimed, bounced. That's kind of what you want with every single stock. If you believe this bull market is just a little bit overstended but not overbought, and we believe it could have an additional, what, five, seven, 8% run for the rest of the year. If you're in that camp, you really, really need these stocks to reset. It's just so much easier, so much mentally easier to buy stocks when they retraced and continue to push up, up, up. Does it look like Tesla's going to 300? Absolutely. Is it crazy to say at some point there'll be a back test taking out the previous range lows? And if you guys remember, I recorded, I recorded saying this echo the same sentiment about a week ago, two weeks ago, and Tesla never went down, right? Doesn't mean I'm betting Tesla's going to go lower. I'm just conscious of the whole market, not just Tesla, not just Nvidia, not just Amazon or Meta or Microsoft. That there is a potential based on historical data, okay, in my experience in the last 24 years that these type of linear markets will give an aggressive back test. And if you are a permeable, again, just again, be reasonable, right? Be reasonable. And if you are looking to initiate a position in Tesla or Nvidia, is the most practical question, the most feasible question to ask is if you still haven't, right after this magnificent run that Tesla has gone from 152 to 263 in the last, in the last month, would it be really feasible to put on your first trade on Tesla come Tuesday? And that's kind of my whole point. It's not that Tesla is not going higher. It's not like the video is going higher. Just be wary of where you are buying stock. The air up here is very, very thin. And it's very, very important that you don't start putting on positions based on the fear of missing out. If the, if this market truly does have more legs, you know, it's going to do what it has to do. Our job as traders, I don't care if you're bull bear, or Delta neutral, our job as traders is to put ourselves in the position that we're getting the safest entry, not the sexiest, the safest entry, the entre has been eaten, right? 152 to 273, the meat of the bone is gone. It's only crumbs left and you're entering during the crumbs. So be very, very conscious of that guys. Just stay again, I don't understand nobody wants to miss, especially in your first early years, nobody wants to miss that runaway train. But you know, 152 to 263, it's not exactly that the train is still in the building, right? Like, look, look at the video may look, look at some of these moves have been insane. And the video since, you know, since May the 24th has gone from 300 to 340. I mean, for 440, I mean, it's 135, 137 point moves. So again, in my opinion, I think just for the organic nature of the market itself or market structure and having everybody kind of be comfortable, sellers and buyers be comfortable. I think the market again is a little bit overextended on this interval, but not overboard, right? Not overboard. We're still only three, four percent net from 2022. And that's where where the upside still has potential. So going into this week, and again, you're going to notice that it's going, it's harder and harder. It really is harder and harder to find, you know, really tight charts. I mean, everything just went nuts this week. If you've been watching this broadcast, Letter U has gone and Letter U has been a great trader. Letter U has been an absolute phenomenal trader. AI has been an absolute phenomenal trader. Even Oracle, man, I traded Oracle on Wednesday of Thursday. Even Oracle had a really, really big run. So you're seeing a lot of really stretched out charts. And again, like I said, we really have to stick to the names, in my opinion, that are coming out of a tight range. And if you don't see that tight range, it's very, very tough to continue to push stocks at these orbital levels. So let me give you guys some idea of what I'm looking at, what I mean by tight ranges. So look at a stock like too low. Like I said at the early part of the report of the recording, you know, it's getting tight, right? Had this great, great run. And now it's kind of going sideways. Does it have to confirm tomorrow? Does it have to confirm Thursday? Does it have to confirm at all? No. But at least from here, and this is kind of what we talk about jumping off the first floor, if you're wrong, you're wrong at the top of the range. You're not buying, you know, in the video up here, where you came and see the, you know, see the arrow. So, you know, I'm watching a name like too low. I'm watching a name like an NOX, right? NOX had a really, really big run. Now it's just from building a channel here 1234567. Tuesday will be day eight. You know, maybe if it starts building above this channel here, maybe this thing will wake up. A name for example, like ENVX, right? Not your prototypical names. But again, you could see and make a feasibility study that at least the range is real, right? The range is real, it's long draw down, and if it gets above the range, that's where you want to take your shots. And again, look at this range here that started in April. So keep an eye on that to the downside. Again, we have to be prepared to the downside, right? Look at a name like First Solar, okay? I had a big, big run. It just, you know, has not participated, broke the bottom of the range here. Now it's just sitting at the bottom of range again. If it starts building down, the market gets pulled. You know, keep an eye on this thing. Look at a name like NDAQ, right? Look at this thing. It blew up on earnings, and now it's just bear flagging. Who knows if the market gets pulled? You know, maybe this thing from the bottom range can confirm its earnings lows. But the key is be prepared. Look at a name like Roblox, right? Look at a name like Roblox. Roblox has gotten rejected three times at the top of the range. Maybe this is the week it finally gets above. So the moral of the story is guys, look, in my opinion, I think the market probably has more legs. I would really, really like, and I think I can speak for a lot of people for some of these stocks to come in for two, three days this week, just to reset, reset the chart so we could get a better range coming off the bottom, then we get the top. And if you do believe this is a bull market, I think this is needed. It's well deserved for the bulls and it's only going to benefit everybody in the long run. So guys, have a wonderful, wonderful Father's Day weekend. God bless to all you guys once again. We are off on Monday, so get yourself some rest, get yourself some food, get yourself some smiles, some memories, and make sure get yourself some love in your heart. Guys, God bless. I will see you all on Tuesday. Take care.