 host, Hazel Chapman. Call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Five World Puzzle Chapman on this Monday, the 24th of July, we're looking at the Dow actually extending the gains, making a new recovery high today. It's at $35,360 and the last time was $35,372 just three sessions ago and here it is having touched $35,392. So the $35,390 is not a very short term basis. I always expect that the 90s, just before you get to the 100 mark, is almost always, there's some kind of resistance. If you smash through, look at this $34,588 on the 16th of June, pulls back, goes back and it goes just a little bit under that and then it pulls back and now it's had a huge move up. Very good action. The weekly chart, leg E just extended, that means you can't get a peak E until not this Friday, but the following Friday. However, this is what I'm looking at. I believe, and I spoke about this last week, that we're coming into a potential digestive phase, it's a rotational phase. I just want to check what I'm saying because I might forget the XLF. Having not a bad day today, up $0.16 at $0.3541, not above Friday's high, but it's holding quite well. And the KRE, which is the regional ETF, bank ETF, also not a bad day, up $0.75 since the $0.4713. So my thinking here and what I see to subscribe to my opening call, one of the reasons why we started to build up another cash position, ready to put money to work over the next few weeks, is that I think we're going to be seeing some kind of a rotational correction. If that's the case, at this particular point, let me just go back here. The Dow is showing senior strength. It's really now back to being a leader in many ways, even though it's just the Dow 30, the mix of it is really quite good. At this particular point, we're looking at up $139 with the nine period, well, the price is way above the nine period, which has supported $34914. The 14 is below it at $34719. So that green nine is still very, very strong. The MACD is still very strong, although the histograms just started to shrink a little bit, but the price is still excellent. So cash is at 92%. That's good. On-balance volume. I have to say the on-balance volume, if I do this, let me just show you this. Look at this left side chart as I squeeze it, make it smaller. Look at that nine period, moving average goes to overboard, but I like to do it as conservative as possible. And what we're looking at is if I put it into the longer context, because this is just a price, it's a continuous contract where the price on a closing basis, in this case, the daily basis, if it closes up, volume gets added. If it closes down, volume gets subtracted. On-balance volume, therefore, is a single price point, although it's made up of different aspects, but it shows up as a single price point. And I have to consider that in the daily, it is still a little bit, it isn't overboard yet, but the weekly chart is overboard, and the monthly chart is becoming overboard. I could say that way for a while, but this is where I, it's only indicated that I use it as overboard, oversold, and so far it's in the longer term starting to get a little bit toppy. Okay. We'll go to the S&P Lookup Parameters that I want to follow. S&P is now up eight at 45-45. I think this is slowing down the upward recovery towards the all-time high of 48-18. The last high was 45-78. So 40, you know, 40 or 50 points in the S&P at any time, 500 points in the down, it's really not a big deal. And that just says to me, Leg C in the monthly chart with all the technicals positive, and of course we've got a week to go before it wraps up, but so far this is really, really impressive action. I think we will make a new all-time high in the S&P in 2023, maybe in the summer. Look at the QQQ is led the pack at 387.13. It got to within 15, 16 points of the all-time high. I mean, really, when you think about what we went through over a period of a year, what we are looking at is within the context of the monthly chart, it's only a Great Leg A, but I have to consider that it's really got the characteristics of a buy mode, because the Magnus Trunks, the Castix at 77% with another week to go, getting close to the 80%, but I suspect that there's a good chance some of that it gets to over 80%, and the 90s over the 14, so the price in the monthly is really good for a single leg A up from the October law of 254.36, but the DAD says, uh-oh, we've got a little bit of a breather coming up in the week. It says, very good action up until now, but it is a peak D and a peak D in the Chapman Way methodology. You've got to be ready for anything, and that's what we're looking at. So in this case, 368 is really the area to look at. We'll close under that in the next week. That says the consolidation could be underway, and that it could continue a little longer. IWM, which I said is holding a little bit better, is up 22 cents at $194.72, but you've had three candles since the Doji candle high of $197.66 recovery high, that is, and the weekly chart is really good, but prices begin to struggle a little bit, even though it's and it's going towards the other resistance of the $198 high back earlier this year, I think it was about March, February March, and the weekly chart says within the second cup formation, a smaller cup formation, we could be getting close to some kind of resistance, and the monthly chart says, whoa, a lot of work to get to the 208-212 area, which says, phew, now we can breathe because we've got upside recovery to go. Meantime back at the ranch, let's just do this to semi-conductors, if they come back a little bit, they're down a penny, $153.78, just kind of struggling here, not doing very much. Weekly chart is at a leg D, no new high above $160.79, it says, uh-oh, that's the means, we've made a peak D near-term top in the day, the weekly chart is leg D, and that'll become a peak D. We're watching this closely, but you know what, it made an all-time high, semi-conductor index made an all-time high after everything that's gone on, COVID, the works, everything. All right, now let's go on to, we've got gold, gold is pulling back, down about three, at 1963, excuse me, it doesn't need to lubricate the vocals, silver, this is a peak D, silver is trading down 27 ticks at 24.58, also the peak D with a bit of a pullback here, they're holding okay, they're not doing great, they did great, silver did really nicely up until they're trading to the 25s, and now 24.57 is digesting the gains, high-grade copper, high-grade copper is just stuck in meandering in the middle of lower range wood, which I always do together with, because it's global, copper's global, iShares, Global Timber and Forest GEDF, global of course, pulling back from a peak D under the times of period, moving average in the daily, weekly is in a kind of a sideways move, but it's had a very quick peak A, peak B, peak C, peak D, but I have to mention, the chapter we've inverted falling information, I'm not dismissing that, and that says, if there is a pullback under, like, in August, you could go down quite a bit, and I'm watching it closely, I'll be back. 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Hello, we're back and we're looking at the Dow holding ready quite well. I'm on the 66th S&P's up 1674, and I just wanted to go through a couple of things. So I didn't finish, I had some questions on Friday, which I didn't get to, but FXI, what is it doing? I think it's just sideways in the lower range, IHS China large cap ETF. Just kind of stuck for now, has a lot of resistance at 2867. That's the Georgia pre-reviewing gap, which got repelled at exactly that line. A couple of times over the last three weeks, 2755 down 7 cents. You can see this weekly chart lowercase H, you can see the lowercase M. It did succeed in going above it, but not so yet another one. So it's just kind of stuck for now. If it's in trade in August, I'd have to look at the weekly chart. If any week in August it closes over 29.55, that's going to be really good action. 255 is only two points from here. This is a financial stock E-commerce, sorry, financial stock. It's an IHS China large cap ETF I was mixing up with the stock I'm going to look at next. But FXI stuck in a range. A break under 26 says, oh, you've got to be really careful. It could be going down to test the 2550 low that was made back in beginning of June. So this is what we're looking at. Another one was MUX. This is a McEwen mining, and did I spell that incorrectly? And the McEwen mining, very nice move from the low that was made at about 658. Let me just check the exact price. 6666, I remember now. 6666 back in beginning of July. And where does it go to? It spikes all the way to the nines. It goes to nine point. Doji candle on the 19th of July. It goes to 9.18. Wow, that is a very nice pop to the upside. And that's a leg. There's your A. I typed it in way back when we were in the 750 area. That goes to be, yeah, this is still acting very well. So McEwen mining, MUX is a symbol doing well. I think that the support is at 850 to 830 area. And if it goes under 820, that's a problem. It's like a single A to the upside that fails. But in this case, you've got almost a cup formation in the weekly chart and says, if it's able to trade, I don't mean just pop, but it needs to trade a whole two days trading in the 947 or higher area. Then that high that was made back at on the week of the 14th of April at $10, round number $10. 10, round number high. That becomes a target. So this is a gray A in the weekly chart for now. Gray A, it's made a peak B in the monthly chart acting very well. Normally I look at this pattern and say, okay, wait a minute, I actually love this kind of pattern. You've got a narrow trading range to the downside in a channel. And then it breaks to the upside. But this stalled over here with these little doji candles. And therefore this particular move has a different connotation altogether. It's a very strong move. The MACD in the weekly chart just about to cross positive. The stochastic is okay at 45%, but prices, the arbitrar of the trend and so forth, the price is only very well. So that's why I'm looking and I'm calling it a peak B and I'm calling it a buy mode in the daily chart because the stochastic is very good at 92%. Okay, with that said, I've got another question. Let me just check here. Oh, could I look? Oh, Apple, all right. Apple is trading. I've been talking about this for a couple of days now. I was going to a leg D. 194.48 was a peak C high as we went into July. Then 198.29, four sessions ago. It's just stalling here. Stalling is okay, but this is Apple, which doesn't usually stall for very long. So I'm suggesting to you based on the weekly chart, the daily chart, the weekly chart. So the daily nine is still over the 14. It's going to take a big smash to the downside under 185 to get that nine-period moving average actually get close to crossing negative. But that weekly chart is still very strong. So when I look at the bigger picture, the weekly charts have all been very, very good. And within that context, it's the data. You remember the data is a little, well, 120-minute chart. But I like to think the data is the speedboat that turns around. And that's the only way you can impact a weekly chart if the daily chart makes a big change in direction. So so far, Apple is holding very well. It's up $1.45 at 193.38. So Apple AMZ, Amazon, that's at peak F. And it's pulling back. It's below the up channel support line. The nine is so close to crossing negative. I think Amazon's have a bit of a digestive phase over the next three to seven sessions, maybe a little more. We'll see what happens here. What's the other one, Microsoft? I was asked about Microsoft. This is like a single leg A to the upside. Microsoft called it more like a rogue wave than a right shoulder failure, even though it was moving to the upside. But the nine is still holding well above the 14. And I treat that as a benchmark. That is really important. And the weekly chart is still strong. So all in all, I want you to say summarily that I cannot, even though we have taken some short positions in some sectors, it's a process. I said to subscribers, it's a process. And it's going to be led by certain characteristics. And until those characteristics really start to show signs of deterioration, I think the upside is more limited. But it could also mean that we've got a sideways consolidation. So we've got our tight stops in place. And that's the way I'm looking at Nike. Mentioned in the den, Nike is a Dow stock. It's trading down 29 cents, a 10878. Yeah, this H pattern can go to an M pattern, lowercase H to a lower, second arch goes to a lowercase M. So a peak APB, peak C, a leg C. Yeah, I think this is just stuck for now. There are a couple of these stocks in the Dow that are telling me that some are about to break down and others could be on the verge. Look at triple M. When I went through the charts over the weekend, triple M has had a very nice move, but it's just a nice move. When you look at the monthly chart, wow, so much has to happen for it to repair the tremendous damage going from over 200 down to under 100, trading right now at 104.19 down 14 cents. A leg D in the daily. I'm going to just get this right. There it is. Leg D in the daily, still within this arch that goes to it. Yeah, look at this. So we've got a bunch of patterns. One is you've got this. Oh, I don't need to move that. Let me just grab this little guy here. Yeah, you've got this very big rectangle formation. That's number one. Number two is you've got two cup formations. You've got one cup here and one cup here. Smaller cups. I can use cup and ladle. Okay, so cup and handle. So until triple M, this is a multinational conglomerate, abrasives, adhesives, sticky notes. Until it's trading in the, I would normally say just above the resistance in 108. No, I would say as soon as triple M starts trading at 100, it's a different chart altogether. And until then, it's got six points to go. Kind of stuck. I'll be back. Now it's up 143, so he's up 16. Holding very well considering distributed digestically. I'll be back. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. 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We're always looking for a rally, identify a low bar, see if the low bar saws higher peaks, and then see if it gets upgraded from a buy signal to a buy mode. That would imply at least four higher peaks to come. Peak A, one penny above that, sauce leg B becomes a peak B when it turns around at the top there. And then one penny above B, sauce leg C until it becomes a peak C, et cetera. It can go E, F, G even. But at D, the fourth highest peak, other things can happen. So yeah, we go. Peak D in the one-minute chart, about 8.35 this morning pulls back, flips positive again, goes to peak D, holds very nicely, and then goes to E and then pulls back a little deeper. And then it starts to brand new, and I use this as a phantom peak, and it goes to another D right there at 45.8650, and that was at about 9.45, pulls back very sharply at that peak D. It does an arch formation, I didn't even have a chance to type in the left side, right side price time match, but it got there a little early, broke below it, went down to a low of 40, 45, 6875, and then saw another peak A, B, C, flips to positive and continues high to a D, and now it's gone to an E and I drew in the one I considered the left side, right side price match to this particular bar right here. This Chapman Wave Roman candle, and we've just missed in the time frame that I gave it, which was to 1032, yeah, we are at 1032 exactly as we speak. It just missed by about a point and a half or so, making that recovery high of 40, 54, 45.8650. It's still time, we could still do it, but it's working very hard, and this is what we call an Eiffel Tower, right here in the 10-minute chart. Eiffel Tower straight after, how funny, Eiffel Tower. The sun was right in Paris last night for a very brief stopover. This is the Eiffel Tower where the price goes straight up and then straight down with an A failure. Well, in this case, it didn't take out the left side low of the dojo candle at 820, at 45, 68, 25. Instead, it went all the way up, pulls back sharply, holds that support, and now it's had a good balance. And yeah, these are Fibonacci numbers. At this point, I'm taking them away because they've met the purpose of something else going on, and I'm watching to see what happens next. That was a peak A failure, but a very good running towards the upside, didn't get taken out. And now it's starting to fail. At this peak E, right here, there's your arch formation that becomes an M formation at a top. Got to be careful. And as I say, we've taken some, a little aggressive, I'm not usually this aggressive, except in the dow over the daggers and daggers, those of you who know my work forever, know that when we get to a peak D under certain conditions in the dow or a leg D, I might start a position that's based on that, but I can also do it based on other things. So in this particular point, in this particular situation, with the nine-period moving average in the 80s, still quite strong. I'm saying it has to be a process. There is no, oh, I needed to show this. There is no dark news cloud cover. And that's this chart here that I've been showing for a long time. And I said last week, look at this. We're now very nicely above the resistance of 34,712, I believe it was, back in December. Yep, there it is, December the 13th. We've gone not just three or four days above that. This is one, two, three, four, five sessions. So that says there's tremendous support. The green nine-period moving average is a very good sign. But everything else about this says to me at this particular stage, there's a chance that we're starting to see upside resistance, a kind of a cap on the market, not too far above from where we are. But each one is now in a very different area. Each index is doing something a little different in their daily charts. And let me just get out of this right here. I wanted to go through. So we have Melly in the background here. Melly is Macauro Vibre e-commerce Latin America. I had a question about, someone wanted to say they've got a position. They want to start building a longer term position. And I'm just going to say that I understand why you would want to do it. There are some things on the Latin Americas that have been working quite well. But I would also say, put this into the category of financials. So in that particular sector, this chart pattern is not unlike some of the others that we've seen in the American bank sector. So if you're looking at this to start adding to the position, I would want it to be so that it is close to where in a very short term, from the price you enter at, you will see a gain. And that gain says you can now make a decent cushion because I wouldn't be adding anything more than something now in this week, this timeframe before I put anything else. I wouldn't add yet another. So if you're going to add, I would just say hold up a little bit. I know the difference is trading at M-E-L-I is Macauro Vibre. 1,195 down 25 right now. The nine is over the 14. It's up above the 1143 200-period exponential moving out. Weekly chart has this falling exformation, but I don't see anything yet in the weekly to say that it is ready to turn strongly to the upside. It'll have to come from the daily, and the daily just kind of stalled for three sessions. So here's what I'm going to say to you. I know that you also use options. If you're going to use options at all, I would say looking at a September, I would go in the money, a September 1195. So that means you're paying a little bit of a premium in terms of the time sequence. But you're not paying very much premium in terms of the price because it's at 1195 and you are buying it at 1195. It's not like you're buying 1200, which means you're giving up 15 points right away. So I would say that's one way to do it. Just start a little position. But if you're looking to actually add, I can't tell you right now to add. Probably if it goes to 1248, I say, oh yeah, Mr. Nice move. But it just seems to be kind of stuck here. So I would do this. I know that you have patience and you're all looking at that and you're probably done your homework to say, do you think it's going higher? If that's the case, split your entry position of an add-on right now and you could go one part of it in 1195. If you're asking my own opinion, I would wait to see how it holds on the next pullback. It holds the 1143, 200-period and moving average. It looks like it could make an arch formation. The owner balance volume is extremely overboard. Make these good. Stochastic is 79%. That's not bad. So that's why I'm saying, yeah, I'm not going to, if you want to start, just you could start a little bit here and make that a split position and then let's see what it does, maybe 30 or 40 points here. I'll doze up 154. These are 57.1. And this is great. It's like, that's the arch grace here and you got the yep there. I'll be right back. Gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The gold report. 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Now there's quick ABCD in the daily, in the weekly charts. The last one is a peak D, right there, the $150.39 high, weekly 27th of January of this year, drops all the way down to the $104.18 on the weekly 5th of May. So this is a really good rally, about 16%, 17%. And now what we're looking at is, is this telling us in the monthly chart that crude oil is going to go higher and that the oil and gas exploration companies are going to do very, very well in this period. Maybe we do have a bit of a consolidation. Maybe the Fed is looking at maybe oil prices starting to creep up a little bit. You've got the grains doing fantastically. So yes, I do like this, I don't know if you're still in it, but VLO at, let me just get rid of this. Yeah, so the daily, I've got this as a leg E, could even be an alternative count, E slash B. I'm going to make it an alternative count because I don't want to rule out going higher. And one of the reasons is E slash B. One of the reasons is crude oil itself is trading at 78.24 barrel up at 17. And it's broken the rectangle resistance for the chapter of Roman candle that this is the first time I've ever seen this, where Roman candle was working its magic in terms of containment between 76.87 because you remember two out of three closes above the high within two to three sessions is really positive. Trading for a shorter time period, halfway into the wick of this candle of the fifth of May and that would be trading in the under 68 with say, whoops, you're going to visit the low that was made of this candle in the 63.80. What is this 63.82 level. And yet look what happened, it just stayed in this range for one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11 and today, leg D on the 12th week that's about three months has gone sideways within that range and now it's the first time it's above that high. So that's the same to me that crude oil has now the larger rectangle I'm going to keep this just for the moment and I'm just going to extend this one as if it was like a head and shoulders type pattern just extended out and there it is and that just says head on the left side sorry, shoulder on the left side back in November or so December the week of the 9th at 70.98 rallies and comes back down makes a low of 64.54 the week of the 24th of March retests it as 63.82 goes to a lower low and now what you've got is the right shoulder that's the head like a double-headed monster now you've got the right shoulder so this says the neckline 84s and if we start to trade it 84.30 and anytime in August that's going to be really impressive action the monthly chart is very negative but the 9 is starting to improve a little bit even though it's S meaning the 9 is under the 14 I'm watching this closely and remember as everyone there were headlines saying is it over with oil is that it I was saying ah ah I think that oil is acting much better now the sideways consolidation that I spoke about ah going all the way back to May is unfolded and now we're breaking to the upside the 9 period moving average is green being green for about 3 weeks 2 and a half weeks it's over the 200 period moving average which is tested on Friday so crude oil could be in place so yes so there are a couple of stocks in fact today I was about to go along USO and it looked to me like it would gap up in leg D I just couldn't do that for subscribers in a gap up leg D unless I had a trading plan as if it was a screamer I would have said by the opening in this case 69.61 and ah if it goes to a certain level take it tied off and raise your stop to break even and just treat it as a trade ah I didn't really want to do that but it's a weekly chart in the USO United States all fund LP which is different to the a little bit different to the crude oil chart says that it's got a bit of work to go to break above the 14th the 14th of April high of 72.65 it's a 72.13 it's just a hop skip and a jump away so I'm watching this very closely ah and that that crude oil let me just see jets is the US yeah there it is the jets airline US Global Jesse wow the costs involved now I don't what ticket prices are going to be like in about six months or so in the airlines because they are now paying big bucks for their personnel and not only that ah if crude all starts to climb which it hadn't been it had been kind of neutral for a while we'll see what happens I suggest it's pulling back a little bit with a dreaded age pattern at 2163 if it closes under 21 21 24 is the low on the 14th if it closes under 20.98 for two sessions over a period of three or four days I don't care but if a trader trades under that I think that jets will be pulling back ah and it goes back into the inside track repellent zone which hopefully will someday become a repellent zone in the monthly chart and there's a big D already in the weekly chart so we've got we're looking at a very mixed market at this particular point I want to show you something interesting look at tall brothers tall brothers is down to 17 cents and 78, 55 what a spectacular move tall brothers makes it all time high last week a little double top in the 83 area weekly chart is a leg D I must make sure that it's not 83 67 so if there is no new high all time high that is and all time high in the housing department I mean come on what an interesting market this has been yes the Philadelphia housing sector index all time high as well three days ago now digesting those gains so on these shorts well the technicals are still so strong it could possibly be I'd be I'd be careful if you didn't get the exact high of tall brothers or lana it's going to be kind of tough because you're going to have risk involved but I would just say that the high that was made say in lana corporation on a very short basis on the housing area 133 24 was the high on the 14th starting at 127 12 so this is very pullback but if you had to short it I wouldn't give it much room certainly if it goes over the candle of Thursday which had a high of 131 0.95 I'd be real careful oh I knew what I wanted to do so natural gas good question natural gas right now trading natural gas is stuck something's going on but I would not be surprised if the next six weeks the first time natural gas you really must see the outside so I'm watching you but right now it's just kind of stuck it's kind of mutual I'll be back that was the point of the day no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tigers Den you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other Tigers and Tigris's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on 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you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com educating investors that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV hey College of Fun we've been launched since 25 from 13's it's trending at 22.33 right now because of this beautiful cup formation and you remember some of you who do I know there are a lot of people out there that use some of the Chapman Wave techniques a lot of people have gone through all my different courses etc you're making a big deal for at least the last it's more than a year I think it's about 18 months now to say whenever you see a potential alternate count consider that if you get a G-C or anything C that is a really good chance it's going to go to that D especially if the technicals are strong look at this big move up to dates up 1.41% up 31 cents at 22.32 that's a breakout in the in the daily chart a leg D I say breakout even though it's a D D's where other things can happen E in the weekly and a leg C in the monthly so this is the reason why I'm saying there's a chance that the Fed is looking at stuff that maybe we aren't looking at I don't know what they'll do with it but this information look at this you've got the grains look at this wheat we count strong wheat as B look at that huge move leg C going to test the left side high look at this I spoke about in last week soybean holding so well walking the 9 period exponential moving average look at corn corn starts a leg B today above the 200 period moving average look at sugar sugar a leg D doji candle right here so that's the reason why I think the Fed might be kind of a little bit stricter in their own rules for a change than usual we'll see what happens meantime down to 178 all of this the 9s 914s are very strong some of the data chart where we start to see weaknesses some of the key indices and that to me is a quick say yeah we've got a bit of digestive theory going on right now I'll stay tuned for a great program coming up and check out those people my date for these days