 Hey everyone, welcome back to Nintendo Prime and to the 129 of you that saw the original video I put out today. Hey, congratulations. I hope you enjoyed the nice two minutes plus of that video that ended up being dead silent because Adobe Premiere kind of decided that it doesn't like part of my footage, even though it liked it in playback, it liked it for a certain extent of time and then for some reason, right at the end of rendering the video, it decided, you know what, poo poo on you, we do not like that audio. So yeah, I was looking into re-rendering the video and getting it back up and in looking back at it, I realized, you know what, it was a half hour long video. We don't need a 30 minute video for that discussion which was about games running on Switch and this and that. So let's have a slightly altered discussion here today. And this is going to be about the perceived problem with the Switch in 2022 and that's being that the Nintendo Switch hardware is extremely dated. And a lot of this comes from the idealization that, hey, it's 2022, the Switch is struggling to hit 720p, let alone struggling to hit 30 FPS, even Nintendo's own games or obviously we can talk about frame rate drops of breath of the wild back in the day, we can maybe excuse that as it was a port job made for different hardware but even when you look at games today like Pokemon Legends, RCS or Arceus or however you pronounce it, yeah, there's frame rate dips in that game. Of course, it's also made by Game Freak and we could talk about how they might not be the best developers in the world but that's neither here nor there. There are so many examples of Nintendo's own games struggling to hit frame rates that you don't have to go that far on the internet to actually discover it. So oftentimes we equate this to being third party problems but really specifically just talking about frame rates in general, just trying to hit that consistent 30 FPS. Nintendo's own offerings have this problem. In fact, they even use like techniques in Kirby and the Forgotten Land where they take like the far off things and make them move at like 15 frames per second way in the background which looks a bit jarring when you pay attention to it. So look, Nintendo's even doing tricks because the hardware they have is not capable of giving them the exact rendering technique and the exact frame rates they're hoping to get at least in terms of what they're developing behind the scenes. So even Nintendo's own games seem to be having little bits and little sacrifices and little changes here and there to make up for the fact that the hardware is just not quite powerful enough for even Kirby. So when we look at the Switch today it is fair to say in 2022 the hardware is pretty dated. It is using a chip, the Tegra X1 that came out in 2015 everybody. Like this is a while ago, seven years ago the Switch came out in 2017. The product has now been out for five years and we are in the midst of the sixth year of Nintendo Switch. And to all the criticism saying the Switch isn't powerful enough anymore, I say, well it is but also it should look dated because we're five years removed from it coming out. If you actually look at console cycles over the years the typical console cycle goes anywhere from five to seven years, closer to five years but seven years has happened in the past Nintendo Wii, et cetera. So we've seen seven year console cycles but no matter which way you look at it whether you're looking at the typical five year cycle or the typical seven year cycle the reality is Nintendo Switch is kind of smack dab in the middle. We're in the sixth year of Nintendo Switch right now we are at the point that new hardware would be coming. It's just we don't know what that new hardware is yet. I think the frustration with the Switch hardware for some gamers, some core gamers right now because I think the general populace they don't really care that Kirby is it has sacrifices in the background. I don't think they care that legends Arceus sometimes chugs for the most part most consumers seem to just not even talk about this. So I don't know that the frame rates are a big concern for the general consumer but there are a lot of core Nintendo gamers that are kind of like, hey, you know what? It would be nice to have something a little bit better and obviously the outsiders let's not even get on the fans of other systems that will just take any opportunity to bash Nintendo. In general, even if they had a powerful hardware there'd be something else they would pick out to attack because it's always something. They got to find a way to puff their chest to our systems better. Your system might be on top for sales right now but our system is superior. You can't get Elden Ring. You can, I mean could get Elden Ring and say it would run well but it could run Elden Ring. But that's neither here nor there. This switch is using data hardware at this point. It's 2015 hardware in 2022. We are at whether we like to admit it or not. Whether Nintendo likes to admit it or not. We're approaching the end of the switch. We are closer to the end than we are to the beginning. I know Nintendo's always, we're at the middle of the generation. Yeah, you know what they originally said that we are in the middle of the generation at a financial briefing, get this, in 2020. Then they said it again at a financial briefing in 2021. Then they said it again at a financial briefing this year in 2022. Nintendo has been saying for at least not four calendar years but four separate years at different investors meetings that the switch is in the middle of its life cycle. I'm sorry Nintendo. No matter what you want to define as the middle, you don't get to pick four different years, not 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and say all of those are the middle. That's not all of the work. The middle has a defined area. Now the middle can sometimes be a two year period. As an example, if it's a six year console cycle, you can then argue that years three and four are the middle. If it's a five year cycle, it's year three. Seven year cycle, year four, et cetera. So you can have a two year middle. That is something that is possible but we're talking about four different times you said it when the calendar said 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022. So no matter what Nintendo tells you unless we're looking at a 12 year console cycle, this is not the middle anymore. We're beyond the middle. The middle's behind us. Whether that middle was year three, year four, year five or now year six, it doesn't matter. The middle is behind us, okay? So we are past the middle. We are closer to the end of the Switch's life cycle than we've ever been. And I know there's a bunch of bangers coming out right now. The Switch is selling like gangbusters. And you know what, 2023 ain't looking half bad either we're kicking it off with Breath of the Wild too. So the Switch realistically is looking like it's in a very strong position even heading through at least the first half of 2023. Maybe even the second half depending on what games are coming. Maybe we have a new Mario Kart game. Maybe we have a new Mario game, right? There's a lot of things a new Donkey Kong could be coming. But here's the deal. The reason that we need to recognize that the Switch is now past this halfway point that the Switch is really closer to the end than it is to the beginning is because it's okay to just admit that yeah, the Switch hardware feels a little bit dated because it is. And that's okay. It's not actually a problem that the hardware's dated. Guess what? The PlayStation 4 hardware and the PlayStation 4 Pro hardware was pretty dated in 2020. And that's why they brought out the PlayStation 5. Same for the Xbox One and Xbox One X. Same for the Wii U when the Switch came out. The Wii U, you know, the Wii U and the Wii U came out. The hardware's dated. It's a fact. Based on current performance of hardware and based on current performance of even Nintendo games, the hardware has aged. And that's okay. We're still getting amazing games. We're still gonna continue to get amazing games. And what I love about what Nintendo's doing here is Shintaro Furukawa is bucking the trend. Usually when we get to the sixth year of a platform, if a platform happens to be fortunate enough to last for six years, we don't have any games. You know, Splatoon 3 coming up, we wouldn't have anything like that happening. Zero by Chronicles 3, Bayonetta 3, Breath of the Wild 2. We wouldn't have any of these big games coming in old school Nintendo mentality, but we still do. You know what this reminds me of? PlayStation. Sony, towards the end of every generation, seems to always be firing all cylinders. They're selling 20 plus million units per year. They're releasing their biggest games. In this case, Last of Us Part II, Ghost of Shishima. And I think there was like two or three other big games that happened in 2020 for them. And obviously they quickly poured it over to PlayStation 5 and released Ultimate Editions and 4K Editions and all of that. But the point is the final year for PlayStation 4, and it really felt like the final year because it seems like they just stopped making them all together because they can't make enough PS5s. So why make more PS4s? Let's just keep, you know, put all our manufacturing in PS5s. Fine, really abrupt end of the PS4. Usually you're still producing PS4s for another couple of years into the PS5 generation, but hey, no one predicted a pandemic at the time. So whatever, Sony just kind of cut their losses and said, yeah, we're kind of done making that. Let's just focus on PS5. But here's the thing, Sony always ends generations strong. They released their best games on that hardware at the end, right before they're about to launch something new. Now, I'm not arguing that Nintendo is going to launch new hardware this year, whether it's a mid-gen refresh or even a next-generation Switch. My argument isn't that they're gonna launch it this year. They could, if they were Sony, they would. But what I am saying is 2023 is looking quite interesting because 2023, we will have crossed six years of Switch. We will be in the seventh year. Switch sales are still going to be strong. I don't think they're gonna be as strong as this year. I think we're gonna be looking at a dip. Maybe we actually are finally looking at sub 20 million per year. Maybe it's closer to 15 to 18. But we are under a new president at Nintendo, a president in Shintara Furukawa that's talked about the cliff, talked about Nintendo peaks, and then they just fall off the cliff when the next hardware comes. They just stop pushing the current hardware all the way up until the new hardware comes out and then they hope that new hardware will reinvigorate the market. Shintara Furukawa has spoken at length about how he doesn't wanna let that happen. And obviously he talked about supporting the system long into its lifespan, having a longer than usual life cycle, which technically being six years in is already gonna be a longer than usual life cycle. My proponent to you, my proposal is it's cool that the Switch feels dated. It should. All hardware towards the end feels dated. When they replace it in 2023 with a brand new system, it ain't gonna feel so dated anymore. And that's kind of where I'm leaning here. I feel like Nintendo's perfectly set up the pull of Sony because what Sony does is with all their best games coming at the end of the generation, this leads, by the way, to Sony having a fantastic start to the next generation because everyone wants to see these new great big games on that next hardware because they make sure it's backwards compatible and it has extra features and all that. And what happens is because the PlayStation 4 is so popular, leaving the PlayStation 5, people wanna get that next one. PlayStation 3 is so popular, leaving the PlayStation 4. What's the next one? PS2 and the PS3, PS1 and the PS2. This has been a consistent thing and what it's led to is consistent sales. Sony has been able to maintain at least 80 million in sales on all four of their major home consoles. Nintendo's only been able to do that one time. Well, not twice if you count Switch and that was with the Wii before, now with Switch. And there's no consistency to it. The Nintendo Entertainment System wasn't doing it. The Super Nintendo didn't do it. The N64, the GameCube, none of them did that. There was no consistency. You know what the consistency was? Here's the NES sales and then everything is just downhill from there. No consistency. PlayStation has three of their four, maybe eventually four of the five with PS5, but now it's too early to tell, above 100 million units in sales. Nintendo will love that consistency and they do it by hitting you hard at the end of the generation. Now, Sony typically has a slow start to the beginning of their generations because of that. And what's unique about Switch is because the Wii U flop, the Switch had a strong start to its generation and now can have a strong start to the end of the generation. And the funny thing is they don't necessarily have to have a slow start at the beginning of the next. As long as they keep this hybrid concept and no longer are doing handheld and home console games on different platforms, if they keep the hybrid situation going, they actually can be making more games than ever before and actually have a strong start to the next generation as well. Imagine launching with a 3D Mario game along with Mario Kart 9 or 10 or whatever they call it, Cross. Imagine they launched that three months into that system coming up. And then follow that up with the next Fire Emblem game. Follow that one up a little bit later with a new Luigi's Mansion. And then obviously another Pokemon game. Like there is so much set up here for Nintendo to have a very strong start to the next generation. While still having a strong end to the current generation. And I know none of us wanna have the conversation. We're all afraid. We're all afraid to talk about the end of the Switch. But it's coming faster than we realize. Oh, they just released the Switch OLED. And Nintendo knows they can't rest on Switch. They can't milk the Switch until nobody wants it anymore. And expect to still be able to kick off their next generation with big numbers. They can't have all these big games come out now and then the first half of next year. And then just let the Switch die out for a year and a half before they release their next system in 2024 or 2025. Nintendo knows that they need to change the narrative. And to change the narrative means doing something different. So instead of worrying about the Switch's performance this year and worrying about that, we don't know what the next Switch is gonna be. And worrying that the hardware is weak. Look, think whatever you want. Reality is we're closer to the end than we are at the beginning. Nintendo knows that. Nintendo's already told us they're working on new hardware. They weren't saying that back in 2017. They're saying that now because they know. Hey, we gotta get to that next generation. We gotta not fall off the cliff and we want that transition to be seamless. We want sales to stay the same. So let's say next year they're only gonna move 15 million Switches. What's that matter when they launch a new platform that fills in that gap with another five to six? There's their 20 million in sales. So my proposal here is that Nintendo knows what they're doing. Next year is going to be next gen. And we go from there. And Nintendo just ends this generation stronger than they've ever ended a generation before. I am Nathan and Rebel Jance from New Zehner Prime. Thank you so much for tuning in and I'll catch you in the next video.