 Okay, very good morning. It's Thursday the 8th of April. Hope everything is going well And as usual, I'm going to get you up to speed on what happened on close of Wall Street Some of the major news that's come out from overnight and then a view just generally on the outlook for the day ahead across assets But don't forget if you're watching this on YouTube delayed Don't forget to subscribe to the channel And we've also got the latest podcast as well from myself and the head of trading from peers current coming out Tomorrow called the market watch so you can also check that out on Spotify and Apple but getting straight into it Let's talk about what's going on this morning and As far as the close on Wall Street was concerned another another relatively quiet day volume still pretty low and We had a marginal positive finish the S&P now up about two tenths one tenth of one percent respectively the NASDAQ up just over a quarter percent the Overnight session. We've had a bit of a breakout in price action And so just looking at a couple of these these charts here in the center. So this is the NASDAQ 100 future You can see here a bit of a breakout of what had been a period of consolidation. We had been seeing Kind of looking at the this this week's price activity really in three segments so far That being the the Easter Monday when it was only the US that were in the market as much of the rest of the globe was Still on on the Easter break. We had that big push-up on that breakout from the consolidation It was seen prior to that in the few sessions running up to the Monday session on the fifth Then we've kind of gone sideways pretty much. I mean, it's been a quiet week in terms of major macro kind of catalysts The calendar economic data has been pretty quiet as well And then we've had a bit of a breakout here in the overnight Asia pack session Which has just seen a further push on the upside so Directionally following the trend that we've seen materialized throughout the entire week on the daily chart then I mean technically at the moment now it seems like Almost inevitable that we're going to push up at some point to the all-time high in the coming day or days 13,900 would mark back in futures which was printed back in kind of middle of February on the 16th So technically does look quite bullish now for for further upside To emerge in these US equities the S&P obviously a similar kind of case study here You've had the rally if you like on Monday the consolidation over the course of the last two in a bit sessions And then the breakout seeing overnight at the commencement of the Asia pack session and we've just pushed on since there Rationale behind the rally. Well, I mean there hasn't really been anything new We did have the Fed minutes of course come out last night as far as the Fed minutes were concerned. They really just Encapsulated the dovish view that we already knew from the previous meeting where we saw the latest projections showing that rates in terms of Irrespective of higher yields that we've seen and some of the developments with the vaccination program going quite successfully now in the US With this rollout that they're not going to change their what the Fed thing is the timing around the interest rate hike expectation so They also kind of commented that they'd likely need more time before scaling back their massive bond buying program So it will kind of fit the narrative if you like of a dovish Fed for the moment And I think largely that what's what's really underpins a lot of this directional move at the moment I guess the big question point remains is With the although yields have kind of settled the move higher generally in yields is going to continue In the period ahead as it has done in the recent weeks and months But is that a reflection of an ongoing positive growth story or is that more tied to concerns about inflation? now for me, I think that the the latter definitely Was overdone in the first instance and so I'm definitely much more believer in the first which is that the high yield movement Got a little bit exacerbated by kind of runaway inflation fears Which I thought were a little bit misaligned as I was commenting on in briefings over the last few weeks I think that We can have a higher yield higher equity environment And that that can be digested by the markets in a positive way And so at the moment equities continue to push on on the upside. Tina's have been flat in the overnight session Golds had a little run-up with just a bit of a pickup in volume Just as the European trades have come into market Nothing substantial though to underpin that fundamentally so the price is backed off after a brief flirt with the R1 Seen up at around the 1745 which was the prior More Tuesday's highs from a range perspective and also that brief breakout high that we had on the 25th You can see on the left hand side Silver was kind of similar price pattern But again, nothing to sustain that price for the moment really looking at dollar movement to direct some of that As far as the Dixie is concerned This morning we are trading at 92 40 which is basically flat down a touch Just 110 to 1% not too much reaction seeing overall In the major currency pairs at the moment both are up a kind of uniform 25 pips or so Okay, well bit of a bounce from the selling pressure that we see yesterday I did comment on this in my my kind of morning notes If you don't do so already then you can follow me on Twitter And every morning I put out my kind of fundamental wrap-up of the the news and some thoughts for the day ahead early in the morning and A lot of people are talking about the downside and sterling And they're pinning it on the obvious things which is the kind of disruption to the vaccination rollout That we've had and obviously supply being short the AstraZeneca drug and Then the question marks in themselves about the Astra drug with the block club Clot issue That's emerged more recently But there's a couple of things here that I'd like to go over with this because I definitely don't buy into a lot of That simplicity of argument And there's a few things that we can talk about. So for one is This I Thought it was kind of interesting article This isn't the reason but just one off And it was an exclusive in the telegraph newspaper and it was talking about the fact that Britain will achieve herd immunity on Monday a UCL Modelling has said that the number of people with protection either through vaccinations or having had a previous infection Will hit around 73.4% on the 12th of April and of course 12th of April is when the next kind of step of reopening Is happening in the UK Not only that though What the main thing for me is that if you're going to pin recent sterling weakness on a disruption to the vaccination rollout program Well, then why is it only happening now when I could have told you the vaccinations? We're going to slow down in April about six weeks ago That was when if you remember the NHS came out and they said that due to the consignment from India and serum It's going to be disruptive of five million shots. It means then that Astra drug We're not going to be able to produce and therefore we're going to pivot our strategy to doing second shots using fires it by Entech for the period of April targeting the older demographic Meaning that the younger kind of sub 30 40 year old nationwide are going to have to wait for their shots And then they'll receive theirs going in through New bookings in May and then with it ramping up with still several more Pharmaceutical shots to come to market of course like Jane Jane so on going through then late May into June Acceleration July for them full inoculation of depopulation by the end of that month. So To think that the pound is weakening on that disruption. I find it's hard to believe when All of that has been known information for a number of weeks and the pound was rallying at the time so Looking at the the sterling on the on a daily as well I think is is is important because one of the things to look at when you look at sterling on it on a daily chart is This is what we did this rectangle box here on the left Excuse me This rectangle box on the left here was February's price action And as you can see here, we saw it really stark out performance in February for sterling now whether that was reflection of You know all the things I've just mentioned at the time the backstage program going very well It's kind of the post-Brexit environment being so far kind of non disruptive in that sense And we moved from around a low point around 135 all out to almost a 143 handle To come off a little bit as we have done and to be sitting here around a 137 handle, I don't think really causes is cause for concern at all I mean yesterday we saw a bit of a technical break in euro sterling, which I think explains a little more Probably why you had a bit of read across into downside weight in in the cable currency pair Here then on this rectangle on the right down at the late March lows that we saw around just sub to one 37 handle here in the Futures, I don't see any reason why this won't act as a good area of support because fundamentally as they said I don't really see much in the way of of the arguments that are being put forward at the moment in my humble opinion So yeah, I don't feel too spooked by that sterling weakness if anything. I think lower levels could be Opportuned targets for anyone looking to pick up on them on on the opposite side of that trade If anything, so yeah, definitely wanted to point that out because I know a lot of people were looking at that that yesterday Few other headlines then to get your speed on one called Joe Biden And he's been talking a little bit more about his stimulus package Yeah, he's open to compromise apparently on his two trillion infrastructure plan admit the backlash that has come fire businesses Because the fact that a lot of his spending is going to come through tax rises This was always going to be the case. It was almost inevitable that this confrontation was going to materialize The important part here for the outcome of this stimulus and also for the the size of that stimulus And how it would be funded for therefore the impact on hammer markets is about how much does he compromise and What's being talked about in a latest Reuters analysis piece is they conducted an interview with dozens of corporate White House officials And they've engaged who have engaged with this infrastructure push and most expect the White House and business groups to basically Compromise and find the middle ground at 25 percent. So remember we've gone from a corporate tax rate around 35 down to 21 Through Trump Biden's gone from 21 to a table offer of 28 and we get a compromise of 25 Which seems absolutely in the realms of possibility and very realistic I would say This is an important thing to understand. I guess with the stimulus Proposals at this point in time. They are in fact proposals. And so they are subject to negotiation Biden by making that clear that he is open to compromise I think it's inevitable that the tax rate probably is going to land in this type of 25 area Is that important for markets right now? No, is it important going forward? a little bit more important over the medium term definitely the Do I see any Kind of delay in his stimulus package? Well, no because 25 percent are fairly realistic numbers for both parties I think to be able to compromise on I guess it's what are all the other details that come around This headline tax figure that will be interested for the package in itself another headline just to quickly mention just because it's a Headline kind of stock is Apple and this is in the Nikkei Asia News they were talking about production of some Mac books and iPads have been postponed Due to the global component shortage that's being observed at the moment a portion of the component orders have been pushed back to the Second half of this year instead of the first half So it'd be interesting to see if this has any impacts on Apple when their shares get underway on the noisy ladies one today on the Nasdaq Terms of the calendar for today. It is again Pretty quiet. You've got the construction PMI numbers coming out later But not going to have any market impact on the euro or sterling. Then you've got these few minutes again, just kind of like the Fed minutes last night nothing really New as far as information is concerned and thus probably Very benign market impact upon its release Weekly jobless claims coming out 130 after we had a slight upside surprise last week looking for Reversion back down to around 680 from 719 And then from a speaker's point of view, do note you've got a drone panel the Fed share Here speaking on an IMF panel later on today That'll be at 5 p.m. London time and the other notable speaker. You've got because the two Fed Guys are non-voters is Bank of England's howl dane at 4 p.m. He's a chief economist at the BOE speaking at the Norges Bank event And that is it. So let you guys get on with your day I'll catch those on that fly live in the in the chat room and I'll see you on the live stream All right. Thanks very much. Have a good day guys