 I kind of reiterate this point every single day, I'm not in the guessing business, I'm stupid, or at least an idiot, maybe not stupid, at least an idiot. So it's not my place to guess, my place is to collect the data. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing great. Hope everybody had really relaxing and having a really relaxing winter Sunday. And and hopefully you guys are healthy. Again, health is the most important component of lives without health, but we have nothing. And you know, that's kind of where we start the segment, right? The question of the health of this market. And I tell you, if you've been watching this broadcast just over the last week, you kind of, you know, you kind of see my, you know, kind of wrote my thoughts and, you know, see with your own eyes what the, what the market has had for us. And, you know, it's been very, very extreme. That's the best way I could kind of describe last week's take. You had Apple, right? You had Apple the week before, you know, the week before trying to save the market. They sold the market on Apple's earnings. Same thing happened with Microsoft. Then Google came out, posted a decent quarter. I don't think it was a great quarter. And what happened was they announced a 20 for one stock split, which was a little extreme. I would have loved to see maybe a three for one or five to one. 21 was a little extreme. It probably gets it down to about $150, $170 a share when it's all said and done. And again, like I said in the previous updates, beggars can't be choosers. You know, it's been very limited amount of time or opportunities that we've had to trade Google because it's so thin, right? The liquidity is terrible and the spreads were horrible. And, you know, so again, beggars can't be choosers. We finally, you know, we finally going to get it back. We're having another opportunity to kind of get another stock in the beta stable that eventually will be able to trade. And hopefully with a lower price, we'll still have a really good value company, obviously, with a lot more liquidity. So that's a plus, right? So again, the net net of them splitting is a good thing. But again, you could see with your own eyes that it gapped up on a huge gap up on earnings, and they sold Google as well, right? And then you had Facebook. Destruction, right? Absolute destruction. Again, I can't call it meta universe. I can't. I'm sorry. I can't do it. Facebook came out with earnings and they just crushed the soul, absolutely crushed the soul. The extremes, right? We've been seeing extremes the whole week. The Google move, right? The Facebook moves down PayPal. Again, was it a terrible quarter? No, but they sold it off like it was going to zero extremes, a lot of extremes. And then all we came up with was back to Thursday session and Amazon was obviously the big centerpiece. And, you know, the stock got absolutely destroyed into earnings. It's been getting destroyed nonstop. And again, I never thought that I never thought that a split announcement was going to come despite what the rumors were and all that stuff, because Amazon would have already been splitting by that. We already know that. It's a very, I think they keep the stock price here. It's almost like an elitist personality. It's almost like an ego personality. It's like basically saying if you can't afford us, don't buy us. So I never thought a split was coming. Obviously, always a chance, but I never thought it was coming. And they sold the stock off about almost 300 points ahead of earnings only to raise some prices on Amazon Prime, which myself and millions of other people are customers to, and they ran the stock up 500 points, which I've very rarely seen. And it set up one of the wildest, absolute wildest ends of the week that we could possibly remember. I mean, I'm doing this for 23 years and I don't remember this much aggression. It was price action movements with aggression. Again, the last time you saw Facebook go down 25% on earnings or PayPal or AMD going up 15% or Snapchat. So I talked about extreme or Snapchat at one point was up what, 50%? 50%? So we saw a week of extremes. So the theme going into Friday session was Apple, Microsoft, Google, right? They all tried to save the market. Tesla, Netflix, right? They all tried to save the technology market and no matter how good or how bad the announcement were, they were selling the market at all costs. They were just selling it nonstop, one by one by one by one, despite, despite how good the individual earnings were. So the question was, was Amazon going to be the final saver? And my whole thesis for the whole week, and if you've been watching this broadcast, I've been pretty much sell biased, right? Yeah, if can you catch a trade on the long side, catch a pivot on a channel? Of course, but it's a pivot. It's a channel. It's a small, it's a small move, average true move in a very micro channel versus the overall selling structure. And if you look at every other index, right, you look at the semiconductors, which are huge parts, right? A lot of the semiconductor names are a huge part of the NASDAQ 100. Obviously, the companies are reporting, you know, everything's on the supply, like literally everything is on the supply. Because again, here is the macro channel that it lost a long time ago, right? Semiconductors lost its 296 level a long time ago. And despite some moves back to the upside, we always talk about how there's always extreme spikes in bearer scenarios. Again, we're still underneath supply. And when it came down to it, the semiconductors got rejected off the 20 day supply and came in. And now it's putting in lower highs for three consecutive days, despite the, you know, the continued strength you see on a day to day basis, random day to day basis. And if you look at the NASDAQ 100, we were set up exactly the same way. Keep this in mind. This was the candle, right? This was the candle, this was Google that they sold off. And then this is a candle on Facebook, the red candles for all you guys who are novices, well, not novices, I want to say that. If all you guys who are brand new to Japanese candlesticks, a red candle means a lower closed and open. So you had, here was your open, here was your candle on Google, right? That guy, obviously got sold. Here is your candle on Facebook, which took down the NASDAQ composite 500 points. So my thesis going into Friday's session was, well, wait a minute, again, all these stocks try to save it. Well, why is Amazon different? And I was sitting there, and I said to myself, I'm going to wait for the rug pull, right? And at one point, the NASDAQ 100 was up 250, right? 300. And I kept on saying is there's no way in hell in buying stocks. There's no way in hell in buying stocks. And this is Friday. Remember, there's no way in buying stocks. Let's just wait, guys. Let's just wait. You know, there's no rush. It's Friday. I'm waiting for these channels. Nothing has changed in the market dynamically. I'm going to wait. And the market, the NASDAQ 100 goes red, right? It goes right. It loses its entire gain on Friday. And I said, all right, folks, here it comes. Here it comes. Here it comes. Let's get ready. They stall. They start rallying back again, right? And at this point, I'm convinced they're just going to put in a lower high and get pulled again. So they go red again. The NASDAQ futures go red again. So now we're red twice in a row after Amazon reports basing every information we've had throughout the week that everything has gotten sold. So I'm just sitting there, just waiting for my spots, waiting for Tesla to the bottom of the channel, waiting for Nvidia for the bottom of the channel, waiting for everything just for the bottom of the channel. And it never comes, right? And I sat there for the rest of the day. Okay, I sat there literally for the rest of the day, watching the market just kind of grind higher, grind higher, grind higher, grind higher. And ultimately, what happened here, and again, we'll get to the technical aspects in a second. But ultimately, what happened here, the market grinded back to the five day moving average, right before where Facebook was, and they got rejected again. And the moral of the story was, I sat there and I said, I would rather watch this market grind up 1000 points, then buy something underneath supply, knowing all this information I have, all this data I've had, and all the trading aspects that we've seen for the rest of the week, then buy something into supply, get rejected just because the market's open, you're seeing the shiny lights of Times Square, blinding your judgment, and then getting destroyed. And I wound up sitting there literally the whole day, just watching the market grind higher. And I was okay with it. And that's kind of the point here. I'm doing this for 23 years. And when you have a bias, right? And a bias is not a guess. Okay, a bias is not an emotional attachment to a stock, an emotional attachment to the side of the market. Bias is the elements of collecting data day after day after day, and using that data to make an informative decision based on technical analysis for your next leg to play out. And the data has shown me the whole week, because I've been trading on the short side pretty much the whole week, that every single time we gapped up, we kept on going lower over and over and over again. And I was waiting for that. Anticipating, guessing, okay, forecasting or having an emotional opinion is that what it is, it's gambling. Okay. And if you are basing your trading, trading destination or trading ability based on feel, I promise you you're not going to be trading for very much longer. And the problem with a lot of traders are they get very, very excited by random moves of the market despite where the macro picture is. And we've said this for a long, long time, no matter how bad a market is, we've been watching this video for a long time, you kind of know this, no matter how bad a market is, and I saw some tremendously ugly markets in 2001 to 2003, 2007 to 2009, even the month, right, even the month of May, March the 20th, right, which was the pandemic lows, no matter how bad the market was, we always saw really aggressive, superly aggressive steroid like moves back to the upside only to get rejected back to the downside. So I kind of knew this. And if you're making your trading decisions based on, oh, my God, that's it, I think it's the bottom way to go back higher, you're going to be very, very disappointed in the results and you're going to find yourself still emotionally attached to trading versus the common sense approach, understand that, hey, this is the reality. There's going to be very, very aggressive moves back to the upside in bearish scenarios. And there's going to be very, very bearish moves to the downside in bullish scenarios. That's what the market is. That's what the market puts you in a situation to make emotional decisions. But if you step back, right, if you absolutely step back and look at things from a longer term point of view, you start rationalizing things much more and all those violent random moves, you start to realize, you start to rationalize, well, wait a minute, they're just really aggressive moves, right? Like, look at this, right? This is all, once we broke all the support, look how many emotional candles we saw up that were aggressive, right? This is the bottom, right? This is definitely the bottom until it's not, right? Until it's not because again, this is all taking place in a macro situation, right? Big macro situation, micro moves in a big macro cycle, macro moves into a big macro cycle, macro moves into a big market cycle. So my point is, if you are a very ego, right, and I think that I think a lot of us have to control our ego, okay, because a lot of people are still in this business to the point of we want to make sure to illustrate how smart we are. Instead, your focus should be to illustrate how rational you are. And sometimes the harder you push to show random people how smart you are, your decision gets clouding this and you make impulsive decisions. And I think that's exactly what happened on Friday. I think a lot of people, they bought the top, right? They watched their position, go red, and again, as the futures went red, and then they got bailed out, they went green again, and then it went red again. So you're basically holding on, right? You're holding on to dear life and you say, oh my God, I can't believe it's happening again, we're getting pulled again, only to get saved the third time. So it wasn't an idea, if you, you know, if you took your position in the morning and you watched it go red twice, okay, and it closed up green, you didn't do anything right, you got bailed out. And that's the most important part, we're not trying to put ourselves in the position of being victims, we're trying to put ourselves in the position to be rational. And that's kind of what we are. And that's kind of how I look at the market every single day. So as good as aggressive the action was for the first three, four days, I think in my opinion, and, you know, at first I was sitting there wrestling, you know, wrestling with my thinking on Friday. But the more I thought about it over the weekend, I thought Friday was the most important day for me because I didn't do anything emotional. Okay, I didn't, I didn't fall into you have to buy stocks because the market's going high because I know the big picture, I see the big picture. And this is where the big picture is, right? Here it is. This is, this is it from the technical point of view. All we did, okay, all we did Friday, okay, we traded back to the five day moving average, you could see where it got rejected off the Facebook earnings and went lower. And now we are in a very tight macro channel. And you could see here, we got rejected off the five day, which is the shortest term market sentiment. And we held the 10 day, which is the second most important short term sentiment. So something has to give this week, it really does something literally has to give this week, because this is a macro channel that needs to be confirmed one way or another. And now the question is, which way do we go? And the answer to that is we don't know until it happens. So the emotional part, the most romanticized aspect of your of your soul was saying, of course, we want to go higher, look how great the market looks, right? Look what happened on Friday, the bulls did it very, very well, Amazon monster move until you realize, and I'll show you in a second where Amazon is. So going into this week, you have 362, right? 362 is the macro area where the cues got rejected back to back days. And 352 is the macro area, right? Whereas the fence or demand or support where the cues held back to back days, one of these channels are going to break. Okay. And whenever whichever side these channels are going to break, that's where we put our bias, right? Not our opinion, our bias because our bias is made up because of technical analysis, right? Not because guessing. I'm not a good guesser. I kind of reiterate this point every single day. I'm not in the guessing business. I'm stupid, or at least an idiot, maybe not stupid, at least an idiot. So it's not my place to guess. My place is to collect the data. Once they confirm to the upside, we go long. Once we confirm to the downside, we go long. And I went through a lot of stocks this weekend. And especially through the NASDAQ 100. And let me give you guys a little piece of data, right? Data. Remember, we talk about data. So Siri satellite radio, right? Siri satellite radio, Google, okay? There's a methods to this madness. Xilinx, Marriott, Qualcomm, and VRTX. What do they have in common, right guys? Out of the 100 names in the NASDAQ composite, there are roughly six, seven stocks that are above supply. Okay, think about that. Out of the 100, there's only six or seven companies that are above supply. And despite Amazon's move 500 move to the upside, look how far it still needs to go before it clears out all the supply. So before, and again, I know a lot of you guys are brand new to trading. You're excitable. You're still emotional. You believe that, is it Monday yet? Okay, cool. But as long, the longer you get into this business, you're going to realize that data and facts are much more important than opinion and guessing. And once you start eliminating that opinion and guessing from your repertoire, you're going to start to see, you're going to start to notice, you're going to start making really, really good decisions, grown adult decisions based on data instead of opinion. So going into this week, guys, again, very, very quickly, this is, this is pretty much it. We're either going to reclaim the five day moving average of 362 to the upside, or we're going to confirm back down above below the 352 and start going lower. I do believe we're going to see less aggression this week, just because all the major market leader technology names are out of the way. Yeah, I mean, we still do, I believe still have Square and Roku and Evidia, but they're not going to, they're not going to catapult the Nasdaq futures to 300 points every single way. So I think the market structure this week is going to get a little bit more better. Okay, you have a little bit more liquidity return. I don't think you're going to have as aggressive opens as we've seen. I don't think we're going to have such intraday swings, aggressiveness as we've seen. So I think this week for, especially for more of the newer traders, you're going to find yourself being in trades a little bit longer because the aggression of the market is going to be less. And, you know, let's talk about some names. You know, IBM, you know, IBM looks pretty good in case we rally, right? Had pretty good earnings. Only reason why it stopped, you can see here this Bollinger band stopped back to back days. Hey, if the market's good, IBM looks good, right? If it starts building above this 139 level, hey, why can't it go back to the highs, right? That looks pretty good. Name TTWO and I believe they report on Monday. I believe, I believe, I believe they report on Monday. But for a trade ahead of their earnings, you know, it busted out of a base here. If there's a week open, this thing goes red to green above Friday's channel, maybe you get a run, right? Maybe you get a run against ahead of Friday's, excuse me, ahead of Monday's report. Amazon, you know, I definitely like Amazon for a trade. I think the value on Amazon is either a dip into the rising 60 minutes support or a break above Friday's channels. But obviously the dip into weakness is a good value play there. A name like Bros, which I'm not really familiar with, nice looking channel, right? So there's definitely channels you can take advantage of, okay? If you put in your research this weekend, there's definitely names you could turn around and be like, yo, that's cool. You don't need 100 stocks to trade, right? You only need one. You need to only catch that one move that's going to be above the channel that you can get a price action from. So you don't need everything. It'd be nice, right? You know, it'd be nice to have a whole macro market move, but we know the reality where we are technically, so you're going to have to really be in a position to pick and choose. Even a name like Facebook, right? You had two big days, you know, you had two big days down. I think, you know, I think the next day or so it's going to wash out, have a red to green scenario, you know, maybe going to move, you know, 10, 15 points. The stock got murdered, right? The stock got absolutely crushed. Why can't the stock rally back 10, 15 points? Even Tesla, which is not in a big macro channel, but there's a trade there, right? There's definitely a trade there, but there's a trade on both sides, and that's the whole point. It's in the middle of this channel. It's either going to confirm this channel here or confirm this bottom channel here, and I'll be honest with you, I was waiting for the poll on Friday, okay? Think about it. From Monday's session, there's been nothing but getting rejected lower highs, lower highs, lower highs. So I was waiting for that poll on Friday that never came. And matter of fact, I was waiting for a poll for everything that never came. But you know what? I'm okay with that. And the most important part is the emotional levels are gone, okay? The anticipation levels are gone. And most important is I'm not guessing. And that's eventually where you're going to find yourself the longer you put in the manpower or the womanpower or the trader power, right? The longer you have the screen time, you're going to realize that you're not missing anything, okay? It's not the fear of missing out. It's the joy of missing out that's going to make you a productive trader. So we have our technical levels on deck. We know what we're up against, okay? Monday morning, let the noise, right? Let the noise die out in the first half hour, right? Let the whole is it Monday, is it Monday crowd kind of get their, you know, get their jollies off? Let's see where the market confirms at 10 o'clock, right? Let's see if the bulls could finally confirm that five day moving average on the cues and drag everything up. Or if they start losing, right, the bottom channel of the 10 day below the 352, we know exactly what's about to happen. No guessing, no forecasting, just data, data, data. Guys, God bless, stay blessed, stay healthy, and I'll see you all on the field tomorrow.