 Hi, my name's Liam Rowe, currency trader and trading coach at Trading1AT.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forest and gold fundamental and technical analysis Let's get into the week ahead and what's coming up Starting the 29th of October So in the US all eyes are on the Fed's interest rate decision and the labor market report followed by ISM Manufacturing and services PMI Jolt's job openings and factory orders all of those day I really kind of point to how the economy is doing and we're getting to the GDP the US GDP in a little bit Internationally central bank interest rate decisions from the UK and Japan will be of utmost importance Inflation rate for the Euro area Germany and Switzerland will be closely monitored furthermore Q3 GDP growth rates in Germany and the Euro area will be scrutinized Manufacturing and services PMI PMI's particularly in China will as well as manufacturing PMI's in Canada will offer insights into global economic dynamics so lots going on this week and For those of you who are in the private mentoring group Just to let you know that if you go to the trading videos channel click on that Take you to a link then just log in with the password and I've got a trading videos channel Where I post all of the the weeks of videos and you can see all the past weeks videos and I have an in-depth Technical and fundamental analysis And also as well the 25th of October where we have a group. We had the group call That's about an hour and 51 minutes long that goes into a lot of detail as well So just in case you missed that so Let's get into some of the technicals and actually starting off not on gold but on the dollar index and this week The the dollar had some decent news So the US economy grew at a 4.9% pace last quarter fastest since 2021 so consumer spending jumped at 4% rate also the most since 2021 and core PCE price index increases less than forecast Which is which is actually a decent news for the for the Fed and The US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years last quarter on the burst of consumer spending Which will be tested in the coming months There's a lot of been a lot of doom and gloom around the dollar and an expected Recession, but that doesn't seem to be appearing for now So gross domestic product accelerated to a 4.9% annualized rate more than double the second quarter pays According to the government's preliminary estimate on Thursday the economy's main growth engine personal spending jumped 4% also the most since 2021 so We did have also as well some some more core prices jump the most in four months of spending ticks up And this was on Friday. So excluding food and energy prices rose 0.3% in September cars prescription drugs and travel drive up drive pickup in spending so Yeah, it seems like here at the underlying US inflation picks up with consumer spending so Again, it is Kind of positive for the for the US economy at the moment now it doesn't look like in November Fed watch tool which Shows the probability of a rate hike and what the market is kind of pricing in and what it's not December seems like definitely a 99% chance of a no change now December is really the place to watch and It does still look like the probability of a no change is being priced into the market and in fact 19.2 percent chance of a hike which Since last month has actually come down a bit. It stayed kind of stable over the past week or so But um, yeah, I think the dollar is still a buy on pullbacks Not to sure if it's gonna go a lot higher from now, but I think on any decent pullbacks I think the dollar should be a decent buy the dollar has literally since Since mid-July just gone in this massive tear if we look at the weekly time frame You know you had one two three four five six seven eight nine ten 11 positive closes higher high closes and then we've got prices really coming round To have been kind of ranging or auctioning for the past a couple of weeks. So I think the upward upside Possibility of prices going higher Of course it can but I think we're really buying at expensive areas So for me, I think the again a par for lease resistance is still to the upside but Really on pullbacks and we've got a pullback Earlier in the week, which I managed to buy the euro dollar in terms of Shorting and buying a dollar against the euro which was a which was actually a really nice trade. I'll go over that and Yeah, but I think the dollar may have run out of a bit of steam to the to the upside regardless of the news I just think that I think the there's there's a Lot of traders who are heavily long and I think there's a lot of liquidity below the market So the market might actually start to pull back before looking at Recontinuing going higher at the data supports it So my bias is still to the upside But just be cautious that if you are looking to buy the dollar that you are really buying Expensive areas so pullback is needed and then look for buy trades on other dollar currencies dollar crosses I should say looking at the dollar yen and dollar yen again, there was talks of intervention support at 150 and Now we're seeing speculation Over the Bank of Japan policy tweak builds in run up to meetings as a meeting this week I think is on Tuesday and speculation at the Bank of England Bank of Japan Will Will make some kind of policy move this month continues to build with the weekend high up on yield and stronger than Expected inflation fueling the market chatter. So if they do actually start to intervene into the market or at least start to Become a bit more hawkish Then in fact, I think there is definitely a lot of room to the downside So this could actually be one of the the high of the market But if the Bank of Japan come out as being quite dovish, then I would expect really the prices to go a lot higher Because the dollar is actually quite a strong in the Japanese yen if it doesn't convince the market that it's going to intervene or At least a change monetary policy soon in terms of your curve control then Yeah, I think that's going to wait Continually on the Japanese yen. So that's where we are with the dollar yen in terms of Levels in fact there are well, there is decent level around here from a daily perspective And then you've got actually a decent level here. I think those two levels are decent Let me just move up this Supplies and probably just somewhere around there. So We do have higher highs higher lows being made you've got that there technically there's a demands on there and I'm going to do is I'm just gonna fact, just get rid of this one here and Yeah, I think any pullbacks into this zone here I think is this level here with horizontal support in that area is decent So the one for eights, but the one for seven thirties is probably the cheaper area to look for some buy trades looking at the dollar CAD Was was looking for at least a buy trade in this and a pullback Unfortunately didn't get one and prices have gone a lot higher and that makes sense when you consider the the fundamental dynamics of the dollar versus the Canadian dollar, right and Bank of Canada did come out and said they were holding rates But it was more due to their economy not doing so great. So just zooming out a little bit Guess we're up into really these highs from 20 October 2022 so up into that supplies on there and away again awaiting a pullback really on on the Dollar CAD in order to try to look for some long trades So that's where you know, we are I think for the dollar CAD If you do want to get sure I think anywhere probably you've right now is decent some traders might know This is also a stop hunt. There might be a stop on above here But it's best to trade technical patterns in alignment with fundamentals As fundamentals is really what's going to drive prices higher or lower Just because you see a technical pattern doesn't mean that the market's going to really react to that If you increase your chances of your technicals working out It's definitely prudent to or important. I should say to to you trade in alignment with the fundamentals So for me the US dollar is the the buy at the moment in terms of the US dollar and the Canadian dollars waiting for a pullback on that New Zealand dollar US dollar again with saying part for these resistance is to the downside Was waiting for a pullback on this This week but obviously just kept making lower lows. I still think that this area is quite a nice buy but there's also a Supply zone right on top of that demand zone right there So I think any pullbacks from an intraday perspective. I think this area here is quite nice as well right there and Yeah, I think that's decent And then you've got the level just above that this the 0.59 Area, so yeah, I think those two areas of prices do pull back Those would be where I'd be looking for short trades, of course That's my bias if you are looking for any kind of long trades I think now is a decent time But the question is why would you want to buy the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar of course you can and there is There are reasons to or there could be reasons to if the dollar comes out with some disappointing news But for now, I do think that the the New Zealand dollar The US dollar is is the buy especially in a risk-off environment, which we're in at the moment Pound dollar again pretty much gone sideways So far this week now we do have in fact quite a large supply zone around here and Yeah, I think any pullbacks are decent Buying opportunities in terms of a buying the US dollar now Fundamentally the pound isn't looking fantastic In comparison to the US it says here that Bank of England likely to highlight the session risk ahead of next for sessions The central banks forecast add to worries for soon next government and last outlook was for near stagnant growth Through 2025 so the Bank of England this week is likely to forecast a bleak period for the UK economy in the months ahead Leading up to the next general election adding to worries for Prime Minister Rishi's soon next government So you can clearly see the difference between you know looking at the US economy where we're seeing you know the economy growing and No signs really of any kind of recession and then you go to the Bank of England and you're seeing Fears of a recession. So again for me, why would I want to buy? The pound even if the pound you know retraces back up to this area here doesn't necessarily mean you should be buying the pound You know if anything just look for well for me Anyway, what I do is I just look for cheaper prices to to short at so if it comes up to any of these areas of 2250 2323 50s then for me that is a really nice buy again as long as the data supports the the narrative of course on both ends so continue decent news for the pound and worsening news for the Continued good news for the dollar and worse news for the pound So that's really where I am but there is if you do want to be a buyer of the pound then this 1.2 area is a decent area to look for a buy technically But I wouldn't expect that to hold if there is continued bad news for the pound Pound Yen again, we've really kind of kind of been supported at this area of 181s You would think that in a risk-offing environment the yen should be the trade last week prices did come up to this area As I said was it and say it was definitely come up here But if it does come up here, then that'd be a nice short which obviously it ended up being Depending on whether you would have got in somewhere around here on the lower time frame, right? So risk-off The yen should be the buy over the pounds. So But we're still in this this this range and this auction from one eight threes to the one eight one Round numbers. So unless prices, you know start to come, you know down below that then you're looking for a pullback into a Supply zone which would be somewhere around here But for now, there's no supply zone because prices haven't made lower lows. So That'd be where I'm looking To to take a trade to buy the yen But again the yen bit tricky if the bank of Japan remain dovish then It's gonna be Again, probably more of an auction in market rather than prices, you know selling off will go into the upside So I think in order for you to buy the yen You'd have to really get a lot of confirmation from the bank of Japan now the euro dollar euro dollar We entered into a week But I did and some of the guys entered into a decent trade this week And it was a stop-hunt around The one oh sixes and prices really came up to a nice level broke through that supply zone But ended up into this supply zone and then took a short trade in fact, let me go to the the Discord room and then you can see what I posted there So this was a trade Update matter of fact, so I'd said if anyone is any short around here to really kind of look to take some sort of profits and this was the The trade you could see where we see a level that had been highlighted And then we saw the entry around here and first profits taken and looking for second Profit targets now some of you might be thinking oh well, that's after the fact But in fact if you if you click here, this was a message that had been sent on the 24th of October, so this was the again the setup which was right around here. I'd highlighted this from At the time 24th go to the the chart and that was basically it has happened on the 24th So and it also as well there was posted some charts just before that as well or which was highlighted in this and if anyone was in the Is in the lifetime members I did show you guys if you go to the educational alerts channel I showed you guys where the the alert was when prices did trigger that that stop hunt over there, so Really nice trade this week was the only trade I really took this week So been profitable week so far when that one trade and yeah Let's see what happens if it prices continue to go to the downside and complete the the second profit target So at the moment we have Yeah, probably if you're looking for any kind of pullbacks either one of two things it's gonna be Ever a pullback into that high there all you're looking for lower lows and then a pullback into a supply zone before going Short, I think that's really the only way to kind of capitalize from a dollar Perspective if you do want to buy the euro which for me looking at the euro news It doesn't look like you'd want to buy the euro because the ECB's high interest rates probably stole the euro's own economy and again The it goes back to high interest rates Stalling the economy to the third quarter data seen showing zero growth or negative result So inflation is expected to have slowed markedly in October. So Both of those things should prevent the ECB from hiking rates even Further so the euro region economy stalled Or even contracted in the third quarter under cumulative weight of successive interest rate hikes According to forecasters all before of a twenty one twenty nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted or predict sorry data on Tuesday to show gross domestic products either stagnated or shrank further only a Brief spur of expansion during the three months through June a separate report is likely to reveal noticeably weak inflation in October so again, if you look at the contrast between what's happening with the In the in the US and what's happening in Europe again, you can see who is The better of of the two so for me any pullbacks in price just mean that you can short for a I can show anyway for a better value, right? So that's really where I I am But if you do want to be a buyer of the dollar then now or at the absolute losses are decent technically Euro yen again came up to this this area last week I was looking for a little bit of a stop-hunt above the high and even though it was one It just didn't satisfy some of the criteria So unfortunately there was no entry on this even I've been waiting for it But I do think a pullback into this zone or even higher could be a really nice short, but again confirmation would need to be had with With the Bank of Japan on Tuesday if you're looking for a buy on the euro then I think anything down now or probably Further down into the one five seven round number. It's going to be where you're probably looking for a potential buy But again buying the euro is going to be a tough one Aussie dollar The Australian dollar is something that I'm actually a bit more bullish on But just not against the US dollar I do think that the Australian dollar is a buy against from other currencies like the euro or the pound So there was actually a really nice stop-hunt for anyone Was trading this during the week there was a stop-hunt there and then you saw prices go to the upside But it would have been a very tough buy technically if you were buying the the Australian dollar Against the US dollar that trade would have been profitable, but I think for me if I was looking to trade this it still be to the downside So any pullbacks up into these zones here? I think I'll wear you'd want to look for a Short trade, but for me, I'm not really looking to take this pair Aussie yen again a bit another Pretty tricky pair because there are reasons to kind of buy the Australian dollar and the risk on environment But in a risk-off environment, it shouldn't do great and we've just seen really the market You know range between this high and this low which makes all the sense in the world So the market's just agreeing that the the exchange rate is worth between 95 or 96 is to what 94s over the past Couple weeks and so unless there's a there's a there's a fundamental or risk sentiment catalyst You're even going to see prices do something like that eventually or you know move to the downside So again, there was a pullback into the supply zone and then it sold off So there was a trade there if you were looking to take the Aussie Yen shorts and buy the yen I do think that if you are looking to buy the Australian dollar It would have to be really down by the 93 80 area or just below. So A tricky pair at the moment, but there's opportunities on that and finally gold gold making breaking past the Dollar mark. So again gold jumps past $2,000 as Israel Hamas clash raises Haven allure and Again, this is the latest from Bloomberg. This is from today Sunday the 29th It says here that Israel deepens a war with Hamas that has no end in sight is the is the The headlines of ground invasion of Gaza starts slowly in date by date approach and new war phase will pressure Hamas to free Hostages says officials now again ground invasions. It seems like, you know, the next phase potential escalation so risk should remain off and And so gold should probably continue to still be a buy although I am cautious of buying gold at highs if you are looking to buy gold and really the the next place to kind of buy gold would be somewhere around this this Demand zone right here between the 1972 and the 1953 is the first area when I look towards buying gold But the better bargain would be if the price of gold goes down to that 1930s to the 1910s I think that's going to be a very nice buy and bargain if you can get it and if risk continues to remain off so Gold and the dollar at the moment potentially rising in price, of course both are risk of Assets or considered risk of assets so they can move in the same direction But it just depends on whether You know investors want to put their money more in gold or more into the dollar. So Yeah, I think gold is is going to be continued to be a buy at least at least in the short term until the the conflict in In a the Palestine region Resolves itself. So that's it for this week guys. Hope you had a Great week last week and I hope you have a great week this week And I wish you all the best with your trading and speak to you soon. Take care