 Good day, fellow investors. I made a small quick note on Tencent and I want to share what I found the most important thing is with Tencent. We all know what Tencent is, the Facebook in China investing in all kinds of businesses. So we'll give an overview, the key factors that I have found on and then we'll discuss Tencent's valuation. I've made a few earnings model that will see what is the key, how to analyze this growth stock and what is, is it undervalued or overvalued and you can see how different inputs show it as extremely undervalued or extremely overvalued. Let's start. So the fundamentals, price earnings ratio 41.33, price to book 9.35, earnings per share 1, dividend 0.70% and buybacks relatively small. The stock price has been extremely heavily hit lately but if you look at it from a long-term perspective it has done extremely well. As we all know Tencent, Vyxin, WeChat, QQ, Payment, online games, platform, communication, mobile security, browsing, news, video, music, literature, everything in the online industry in China. The key factors Tencent Pay 800 million monthly active users and 1 billion for Vyxin, WeChat, I don't know how to pronounce that, monetization is the key selling in-game items, virtual items, premium service subscription, online advertising, payments, financial products. The potential still comes from a very low add load on Vyxin. Second largest mobile payment market share Alipay has 54% so increase in financial services products leads to more potential, more monetization of gaming subscription, advertising, payment, financial services and who knows, they even have a wealth management company that has about 300 billion renminbi under management. The ecosystem is key, it has a huge mode, everything goes through, WeChat if you are selling something in China you need to be there which leads to high switching costs from the We ecosystem. Now the key here is analysts expect 10-year growth to be at 30% per year and we'll discuss that a little bit later more in the earnings models. Another opportunity is internationalization, they have stakes in Fortnite's maker, Epic Games, Assassin's Creed, Ubisoft, Call of Duty, Activision Blizzard, the League of Legends, Riot Games, etc. The risks, uncertainty surrounding partnership with JD going into retail, gaming industry consumer preferences, non-core investments like 1.78 billion in Tesla, 34 billion in Vanda commercial, so going into retail, government introducing gaming restrictions to fight myopia. So those are the risks and their uncertainties hitting Tencent. Now, if we put this into a quick model, valuation, if it grows at 30% with the price earnings ratio of 20 in 2023, the present value at a 15% discount rate is 37.29 dollars. If it grows at only 20%, the present value goes to 24.99. If I look from a value perspective, I put a price earnings ratio of 10 on current earnings and assume no future growth, okay, this is stretched but then the margin of safety would be a price of 10. So if I put this into my comparative table of Chinese stocks, you can see that Tencent is a little bit overvalued or even let's say fairly valued. Will it grow 30% over the next five years and will the price earnings ratio be 20 in 2023? That is the question you have to get an answer to. Now, if I look at Morningstar, their fair value is 76 and I get there if the company continues to grow at 30% over the next five years and the price earnings ratio is 40 in 2023. Then the price would be 150 dollars in 2023, discount that by 15% per year and I get to 74 as the present value. That's their target and if in that case it will be undervalued as the stock price is around 40. For the stock to have a 40 price earnings ratio in 2023, it should grow for 30% over the next 10 years and that is what they are expecting. However, let me show you something about growth. If I start with let's say 100 and grow at 30% per year over the next 10 years, it means that the 100 now are 13 times bigger in 2027. We are at 131378. Now, let me show you what happens if there is just one slowdown. So just one recession, let's say they grow at 30% in 2020, they grow at 10%, 2021 they don't grow and 2022 grow at 10% and then 30% up till 2027. The increase is not more 13 times, now it is 7.5 times with one recession. That's a discount of 43% if we divide 7.5 by 13. The current stock price is 42, the morning star target is 76, which gives a discount of 45% in line with that including with the model including one recession in 2000, let's say 21. If then the growth rate slows to 20% with a price earnings ratio of 20, then the present value of 10 cent is 24, which makes it extremely overvalued now. So you can play with those growth rates, will it grow 40%, will it grow 20%, it will grow definitely. So there is one strategy, okay you can wait it for 10 cent to fall at 24 and then say okay now it's really a bargain, it will grow 20% over the next 10 years and it will have a 20 price earnings ratio in 2023, let's say, then it's really a bargain at 24 of course. On the other hand you can say okay I'm going to buy a little bit now, if it drops 50% I'm going to bring it back to the same portfolio exposure and then if it goes higher I'm going to bring it down and then you say okay I'm exposed to the Chinese economy via 10 cent and I simply rebalance across that position, they will grow, you never know when there will be a slowdown, how much will this regulatory overview of the gaming industry hit 10 cent. So that's something you have to see and that's something you have to manage within your portfolio, we don't know how hard will 10 cent be hit. Further all those investments Tesla that might become a burden somewhere because usually some of those work, some of those don't. In a recession there is a lot of impairments, a lot of hitting on those earnings and there you might not see growth for a year or two years and there you see the discount and then when investors stop seeing growth then you see a lot of pain in the stock price, which is what is happening a little bit now. So to conclude 10 cent is a great business, has a huge moat, everything okay, however just think about at what price you might be getting it or at what price you want exposure to the Chinese economy through 10 cent through something else what will be the growth, will it be linear or it will go up and down and you can take advantage off on the down or and sell on the high when everybody's very excited. 30% growth over 10 years is possible however I'm sure it won't be linear, so think about the linearity in the expectation in the models and the recession when discussing 10 cent. Let me know what you think about this, what you do, whether you own 10 cent and how do you see developing in the next 5-10 years in the comments below. Thank you for watching.