 Mark Francis Galera. Mamlulita Sarah. Naging early bird. Good afternoon po. Hindi pa 6 o'clock. Sir Christian and the Toilet. Welcome po sa inyo. Ayan si Pastor. Welcome po ipopromote na natin as panelist para alam na natin na hindi ako pag nalaglag ako meron ang sasalu. Pero okay naman po so far yung internet. Hello Pastor Shem. Good afternoon pa. 8 minutes. All right so guys good afternoon po ulit sa inyong lahat and I hope po na nakakaten kayo yesterday and we are going to talk about advanced training. Hello Sir Nathan. Hello can you hear me? Yes sir. Loud and clear. Thank you po. Ayan so wait lang tayo hanggang 6 o'clock para makapag wait pa tayo na mga attendees natin. So ayan si Mom Kathleen hindi pa pumapasok. So far we are 16 including the panelists so wait lang po tayo. So marami po kumatendong last first two days natin ng webinar or na beginners training. Yung lahat po ba ngayon na nandito ay mga bago first timer na attend ng forex training seminar or webinar or lahat po ay nakakaten na at first advanced training lang po ngayon. Sir fundamental kasi bukas NFP. Ayan so welcome ulit. Yes sir. Okay po. Ate ka muna. I activate ko na yung sa mga mamaya eh. Hindi ko na naman ma-activate ayan. Okay advanced training pa lang first time. Yon si Sir Eduardo. Teka check natin yung chat. Ayan sir reunion po ito with Mom Kathleen. Way back at forex days. So ayan. Bapakilala ko rin. Mom Kathleen is here na with us. Ayan so wait lang tayo ng mga attendees natin no. Habang nireredin is Sir Nathan yung kanyang presentation. Kung sa naman medyo lumitao na si Haring Araw kanina pero sabi ngayon meron pang barating na bago. Yingat-ingat po tayo. Ayan so guys yung pagusapan natin ngayon medyo advanced po yung training natin. That's why nakalagay po sa ating social media posts is advanced yung ating pagusapan. So yung first two days of course para po sa beginners yun. Kung may mga questions po kayo from the first two days ng webinar you can also ask sa chat box natin again. Rules lang po natin. Hasa na po sa chat box na po tayo mag-question. Wag na dun sa Q&A para direct-direct po yung reading natin. Mom Kathleen po yung magbabasa ng questions and then if na sasagotin naman po na Sir Nathan para hindi po tayo palipat-lipat ng screen. I hope you guys understand yung simple rules natin. So yun, sinasur Malaysia, mga nakatin ng first and second. So thank you po sa pag-atin ulit. Hello mga Marceline. So anyway, any questions po yung pangapalang available na po yung ating first and second webinar recorded video, nag-send na po si Mom Kathleen. So yung mga hindi po nasendan or gusto po humingin ng ating recording ng first two days or yung beginners training, please leave your email addresses po para makuha ng Mom Kathleen and makapag-send po siya sa inyo. However, yung advanced training po, lahat ng advanced training hindi po pwede mag-send pagwala pang verified account. Again, yung ating advanced training hindi po pwede isend doon sa mga mag-request na walang verified account. How to get a verified account? Register nang po kayo at www.tickmail.com or may mga nag-invite sa inyo mga ID or Introducer Broker natin, ask yung how to get or a verified account or how to register. Para po lahat tayo ay guided ng mga IDs natin how to register. Nag-i-email na sila, nag-send na sila nag-email para dun sa first two days na din. Then, kapag kapo again advanced training, kailangan lang po meron po tayong verified account para po masendan namin kayo. Ayan, si Manggimber Lee. So, we're all 25, including the beginners training daw. Ano daw sabi? Tika muna. Ang sabi, beginners video please. Ayan, kayser Salomon. Ayan, nasa host pa din ako. So, momkat, pakipost ulit iyong tawag dito. Facebook account mo para if ever nagusun nila mag-reach out. Kays, meron po pa lang Facebook group yung mga IBs natin. Yung Facebook group na ginawa na mga MIB. So, iba post lang din po and lahat po kasi nang atin mga account should be verified bago po makadjoin doon sa atin Facebook group. So, please follow lang po yung mga instructions para madalipod ninyong makuha and at the same time may enjoy nyo po yung benefits of being a member doon sa Facebook group na yan. So, if you know this, Sir Nathan, Pastor Shem is with us right now. Nag-detrain na po tayo pa unti-unti doon sa ating magagaling na mga IBs para in case na meron po mga questions for mentoring and instructions po na mga clients, pwede na po sila mag-assist. Tulik. Kala ko, Sir Shem ngayong mag-conduct ng webinar ngayon. Pastor Shem, ayano. Dila sa mga minister, Nathan. Siti-titi nalang dapat ako, di ba? Pastor Shem, di ba? So, what ko na yung presentation? Maganda po yung training kasi na ginagawa natin para at least kasi right after, kasi tomorrow sir di ba one hour ka lang. So, Pastor Shem will continue kung ano yung magiging verdict or magiging analysis for tomorrow para sa NFP lakakasabay yung mga clients natin. So, si Pastor Shem yung kasama natin, tomorrow. Dapat pala. Padala ko na yung PowerPoint presentation para... Sana nag-present. Sana mag-present bukas. Manunod lang ako. Ayuno, Pastor Shem. Nakakatuan. Yun po, kasi para po nag-detrain tayo para sa mga susunod, mas maganda na sa pool ng ating mga IBs, makakawad tayo ng mga trainees. So, yun po yung nag-improject ng TickMail. Oh, sige bukas. May padala ko kasi ayam yung... tapos ayang baptism by fire yan. Ayano. Ang sayang naman nakakatawa in front of our participants. Guys, kayo nung din yung pwede mangyari sa inyo. You might be one of our presenters or our mentor soon or in the future. So, that's why we are doing this para po matutu tayo pare-pareho sa isa at isa dahil, yung alam po ninyo possible na hindi po namin alam, especially dun sa mga marurunong na kasingapon na sa advance na tayo, sa advance training na ito. So, we do not expect at least yung mga beginners natin, matututort may gag-guide nung mga marurunong na. So, may mga dobling pangalan. So, feeling ko pinahiram yung link na galing sa mga email addresses nila, kapag hindi ma-access yung link doon sa post. So, 6 o'clock na. So, we could start naman tayo sir Nathan or we wait at least 4 minutes para 605. Para while waiting. Kayo, kayo. Kayo yung on this side. I'm just here waiting. Okay po, no problem sir. I'm just waiting for Sam to initiate the... So, pag initiate sir sir kasi siya po yung nasayin ko to open as opening prayer na din because he will be out around 7. Meron po siya kasi Bible Sali later. So, yun. So, guys, invite lang po kayo. Because I don't want you to miss this webinar. Because tomorrow po, there will be a big event na, mostly po iinaabangan the most awaited event sa US market, ang non-farm payroll. So, ito po yung pag-aaran natin ngayon, ito yung magiging basis din yung para sa pag-de-trade ninyo doon sa non-farm payroll na mangyayari for tomorrow. Again, fundamental analysis po ang ating magiging topic which is magiging basis po natin for tomorrow's trade kasi na non-farm payroll tomorrow. This is happening every first Friday of the month. Iyan po ay nag-aganap to ang first Friday of the month and ang US market po, ang US based na mga currencies ang affected or mag-moove because of this news. So, yun po yung pag-aaran natin ngayon what moves the market or yung fundamentals na gumag-papagalaw ng market during non-farm payroll. Isa iyan sa reason kung bakit gumag-alaw yung market. So, please listen and I know marami tayong matutunan dito sa ating speaker for tonight. He's one of my mentors. Mga may ako na siya iba, pa-kainal sa inyo siguro after makapag-opening prayer tayo. So, we are all 35. Siguro puwede na tayo mag-start sir Nathan, ma'am Kathleen and Pastor. So, for now sabi ko natin every time na mag-start po tayo and we close the webinar, we start with a prayer. We do respect for your religion, your faith and your organization, but please do allow us to start this webinar with a prayer and that would be led by Pastor Shem. Pastor Shem, please do. Hindi ko, makin mahapun po sa bawang pisa. Manalangan tayo. Daki lang, Joss, aming ama, marami salamat sa karuningan na ipinakalod mo sa aming danuhigit sa aming mga pagduro panginon. Dalangin namin panginon sa gabing ito na patulimu kaming puno ng mga karunungang ito at kami ay matuto at mga panginon ang mga balakid, internet connection, mga distraction, kung saan mga kaminaroon ay alisint mo panginon at kami may mga concentrate sa aming mga pagaaralan at mga panginon ay magamit namin ito muna-una sa pagtupad na aming mga pangarap para sa aming pamilya, tigit sa mga panginon ay maging kapurihan din para sa yung panginon. Malami salamat po at patulimu kaming samahan sa duration ng mga pagaaralan na ito sa yung aming kapuri in Jesus mighty name. Amen. Amen. Thank you so much, Pastor Shem, for that wonderful prayer po. So guys, again, welcome to Tick Meal webinar. This is a free webinar and we're going to talk about advanced training. Fundamental analysis. But before that, I would like to introduce to you our speaker for tonight. He's been in this business for more than 20 years. Okay. And he's one of my mentors po nung nagsisimula pa po tayo sa Forex Trading. And it's an honor to him or when for us siya po ang ating speaker ngayon kasi talagang marami po tayong maturutunan sa kanya and napaka-laki po nang kaalaman po ninya sa business nato or sa narangan ng Forex Trading. So without further ado, I would like to present to you our speaker. Hello, okay na po ba sa akin? Ma'am na chachapi po. Naglalag pa rin. Can mo may problema? Miss Kath, can you hear me? Yes, sir, loud and clear. Wala naman lag. Wala naman lag, ba? Okay naman po, sir. Okay na, sir. Sa akin ay problema. Sige. Good evening to all the participants, to all the 39 participants. Mag-invite pa tayo para medyo masaya ang ating discussion. And thank you, Miss Sally, for the introduction. Before we begin, as you can see from my slide, we are here to discuss market analysis. But before we begin, I'd like to have some ground rules para masimplify natin. I will be discussing market analysis, particularly fundamental analysis, no, the fundamental approach. However, if you have any question or clarification, please do not hesitate to type your question or concern on the chat box, not on the Q&A box, but on the chat box. What will happen is that Miss Kathleen and Pastor Shem will go over the questions and will interrupt me by voice so that they can address the question. And then I will try to answer the concern or the question as best as I can para tului-tului tayo para walang nai-eewan. I hope that that very simple instruction is very clear. And please, yung questions ninyo o kaya yung inyong mga concerns should be on topic. Hindi yung kuna re-we're talking about number eight, tapos big lamong katanungin question about letter V. So medyo malalayo, di ba? Hindi naman minsan yung iba naihilo naihilo dahil kasi big na tumatalon yung question natin. So please, yun lang ang ground rules natin. So do you have any question or concern? Put them on the chat box. There will be two people who will go over them and then they will interrupt me. And please, set your questions or concerns on topic. Ugg naman yung kamatalon tayo, okay? So kung wala nung ano, I hope everything is clear. So we will now move on to the topic at hand. And this is market analysis. Medyo advanced na ito compared dun sa mga unanin yung naging webinar yung pinag-attendan yung webinar. Dito medyo advanced na kasi pag-usapan na natin strategies. Now everyone knows how to make money in the forex market. You look for an instrument that you think is about to appreciate. You buy that instrument and then sell it when it has appreciated. The question here is how will you know? How will you be able to identify among the many instruments available to you? Para yun ang bibilin mo, yun ang question jane. How will you know what to buy and what to sell? And equally important is when to buy that and when to sell that. So this is where market analysis comes in. In the forex market, market analysis can be subdivided into two major parts. One is technical analysis which will be discussed next week. And the other one is fundamental analysis which will be discussed today and to grow. So yun ang ano natin ang ating topic. Okay, so what mean mga Q&A pa rin? Okay, so moving forward, let's now talk about market analysis. Particularly sa fundamental, yun technical, next week na yan. So hod na natin mo na tanongin yung mga technical questions ngayon. Let's concentrate our minds efforts to understanding fundamental analysis. I will try to discuss or explain this in the most layman's term para madalini yung mind. Hindi yan at ma-appreciate ninyo. Okay, fundamental analysis. Inmove ko lang yung hacking pointer. It is a type of market analysis that involves the study of economic situations of countries to trade. It gives information on how big the political and economical events influence the market. And with this, it is also important to understand or to familiarize ourselves with politicians or heads of states or big figure heads ng bawat bansa. Kasi yan na nakakapag-impact ng mga movement sa market. One example. Sino kilalaban ninyo ang President ng Amerika? Sino ang President ng Amerika? Sagot kayo kasi may point system yan. Mayro kayo mapapanalunan kung sumagot kayo. Joe Biden ayun. Christian, Mike, Glenn, yun. Yun ang mga alam. Colore, big lucky Joe Biden na big lang asasinated. This is just a very broad example of what can happen to the market. Why then be assassinated? What do you think will happen to the US dollar? Will it appreciate or will it depreciate? Points ulit. Depreciate. Common knowledge yun. In fact, I saw that during the September 11 of 2001 when the World Trade Centers were attacked. Ang laking nang ibinagsak ng US dollar and practically the whole world thought that it was the start of World War III. Although, in hindsight, lumapas hindi naman. So basically, this is what a fundamental effect will happen to the currency markets. Ang nagagawa ng fundamental factors sa world market and particularly sa foreign exchange or currency markets. So, importanti po malaman natin yan. Gagay sa Pilipinas, kilalaban yun yun yung presidente natin. I'm sure you do kasi mga Pilipino naman tayo. Now, hindi lang naman din mga politicians yung mga babantayan natin. Babantayan din natin yung mga central bank governors. Kilalaban ninyo ang central bank governors ng Pilipinas. Kasi babantayan ninyo yan pag nagsalitayan or meron siya sinabi regarding bank rates or inflation. Ito alam ng effect o the Philippine currency o the Philippine peso. So moving forward, sana nai-entindi ninyo yung sinasabi ko na, ipotapili na malaman natin po si Nusino. Now, another way to analyze the market is by looking at the economic calendars. Lahat ng mga brokers meron silang segments sa kanilang website that is reserved for the economic calendar. Yung economic calendar, which is what you are looking at right now, has so many information all at the same time. Yung unang-una or first column yan will be the date. And then the second will be the time. And then, of course, the country where the data will be coming from and then the event itself. That's the fourth column. And then the next is the importance or relevance ng event na yun. Now, yung last three, actual forecast and previews, these are mostly monitored closely. Kasi yan yung mga economic figures na lalabas at lumabas na dati. So, tingnan na lang natin sa 301 row. Saan galing yung data sa China? Ano yung event, trade balance ng China? Yung previous month niya, ang kanyang trade balance was 31.10 billion. Ang forecast nila is 21.20 billion. So, ang forecast nila, yung trade balance ng China bumaba. My question is, will this be good or bad for the Chinese economy? Points ulian. Amasi Marian, Sir Ronald, Sir Romeo, thank you. It is bad for the economy kasi yung trade nila last month was 31 billion. Ngayon, ang naka forecast is 21 billion. So, kung monti yung kanilang trade among the rest of the countries, the forecast is bad. However, ang lumabas dun sa actual is 33.8 billion. So, mas mataasa forecast at mas mataasa previews. So, eventually nung lumabas yung data ng 301, eventually it became good for the Chinese economy. Pero, meron mga data kasi na hindi nyo pa alam ko ano yung magiging aktual eh. Diba, so hindi natin kabisado at hindi natin alam ko ano mga yari. Kaya, what traders usually do is that they wait for the actual figures to come out and then act accordingly. When I say, act accordingly kung good, they buy the currency kung bad they sell that currency. Do you follow? Ayon, so ganun ang mga yari sa ating araw-araw na rabaho when we are going to trade the forex market fundamentali. Another way is to, makro-economic factors yan by reading or watching the news, global news and see how it affects the global market. Kasing point nalang, yung Ukraine at Sakalasyan War has been going on for over a year now. You have to closely monitor that. Kasi it will have an effect on the prices of good oil. Sorry, but ayaw mag-move. Ayon, that's one example. Another example are like what you are seeing here. Let's now talk about the impact. Tatlung kategori siyan yung small, medium and high impact. In this case, ang red ang kino-consider nila na high impact, news. So ibig sabihin malaki ang iga galaw. Yung yellow, ito yung medium impact. And then the green, ito yung light or small impact lang. So, bakit ko tinidiskasi to sa inyo? Kasi, I do not want you to trade every point that every economic calendar that comes out. Kasi masado naman nakakapago dyan. Remember trading the forex market is 24 hours. So di mo naman kailangan bawat data dyan, babanatan mo, itit trade mo. What I'm trying to say is that to sure battle, yung naman lahat siyang kailangan mo sa bayan e. So sa aking, ako ang ginagawa ko, I only concentrate my trades doon sa mga high impact news or high impact events. Kagay dito yung interest rate announcement ng New Zealand, red siya. And then the RBNZ, that's the Royal Bank of New Zealand red statement. High impact din ito. And if you will notice, ula yung kanyang ulai. The next is, of course, the yellow ones. So medium impact dyan. Pederin ninyong itrade. Pero talagang marami dyan yung green or yung small or light lang. So again, I'd like to, po lang ojo daw. About now, meron. Miss Garth, can you hear me? Okay naman siya, okay naman po. Here naman ko. May nagsabi si Giovanni Nyo no ojo raway. Kaya nagpanik ako. Okay, so moving forward. And thank you, Sandy. So ito, example na tayo na mga fundamentals. Economic calendars. Now, if the forecast is better or higher than the previous figure, then the US dollar is usually anticipated to strengthen. However, you must always look for the actual. Wall. Yung forecast, kagay nung trade balance at China, last month, 31 billion. Yung mga economists nila, basis sa maraming factors, GDP, GNP, yung mga interest rates, yung mga umutang, yung mga nagbilihan. A factor all of those. And then they create a forecast. So, yung forecast, pwede yung mataas, pwede yung mga bababadun sa previous figures. Now, yung normal train of thought ito, kapag mataas ang forecast sa previous, ang inexpect nila, lalakas yung currency na yung. So in this case, the Chinese yuan. But you must remember, for the actual, for the release of the actual figures, kasi dung talaga tayo yung magbabase. If the actual figure is the same as the forecast or higher, then that is definitely good for that particular currency instrument. Pero, kapag ang actual, ay below the forecast, kahit mataas yung previous sa tendency, traders will immediately short sell that instrument. Okay. So yung po yung premise nyan. Always wait for the actual to be released. Now, sino ba yung mga figures na kailangan nating intindihan o bantaya, mga prime ministers, ang heads of states, mga presidente ng bansa. Mga monarki ba, kailangan ba natin ni Monitoyan? Hindi naman, in this day and age, palamuti na lang ang monarki. Hindi na dati, di nakatulad dati that they dictate the world events. 17 hundreds, 1800s, pero in this day and age, 21st century, ano nalang sila eh, palamuti na lang, wala na yung effect yung krown cape king Charles, from prince to king. So, ito yung mga kailangan nating bantaya. Now, let's now talk about the actual fundamental events that play a big role in the currency ato yung paborito-paborito ng mga traders around the world. Hindi lang Pilipino, mapa-americano, mapa-european, mapa-Africano or Asian. Ito yung tinatawag namin na non-farm payroll or NFP. Pero if you check the calendar, na kalagay naman do, na non-farm payroll, iba yung turn nile, minsan non-farm payroll, ano ba nakasulat do sa kabilang ano natin. Tekal lang, check matin. Ayun, non-farm payroll, non-farm employment change. So, iba lang yung naging definition but it's basically the same. Non-farm payroll at saka nan, farm employment change. It is a statistic research recorded and reported by the US Bureau of Labor that represent the total number of paid workers of any businesses in the US, excluding the following categories. Government employees, private household employees, nonprofit organization and farm employees. Yan. So, the rest, sa Amerika kasi for some reason, kayin nilang i-record yung lahat naman nagtatrabaho, except dun sa mga TNT. Kasi yung mga TNT, they prefer to be paid in cash kasi wala silang social security, wala silang back accounts na na legal. So, they prefer to be paid in cash. So, hindi yan nang nang nare-record ng Bureau of Labor. Ang nare-record ng Bureau of Labor the rest, practically everyone yung nagtatrabaho sa McDonald's, sa Dunkin Donuts, sa Arby's, sa mga Macy's na mall, yung mga malalaking malls nila and mga White-collar jobs, yung mga nagtatrabaho sa mga factory except the farming industry and, of course, to a small degree, yung government employees, mga household employees, ito yung mga gardeners, yung mga maids nila, mga battlers and, of course, yung mga nonprofit organizations. Right-lang na portion yan. Now, the, what is important about the Nand Farm Bureau is that it is being announced every first Friday of the month. So, today is August 3 ang magiging first Friday nang August, for the month of August, will be tomorrow which is August 4. So, nun mga traders around the world mo. Ito ang binabatayan nila. Majority of the traders, including me, I monitor this, kaya nga bukas subukan mo kung tawagan ng alas 8imedia, hindi mo kumare-remix ng maayos, like kasi talagang nag-concentrate ako dun sa magiging actual release ng non-farm payroll or non-farm employment change. At ito yung maganda rito sa pag-a-analyze at pagtitrade mo using the fundamental approach. Kasi ang non-farm payroll, alam ko na kung kailang dahalala ba, kailang lalala ba siya? Every first Friday of the month. And not only that, malalaman ko din, alam ko din kung ano oras exacto sa Manila time. So I know the day, I know the time. I buy the US dollar or I sell the US dollar. Kasi galing yung data sa US, kaya ang US view of labor yung mag-release ng data eh. So baka iba tayo ng oras sa America kaya yung sinisek ko dun sa mga economic calendars ko, pag naglalagin ako, kalagin ako, based do sa GMT time natin dito sa Philippines, which is plus eight. So again, napakasarap mag-trade ng fundamental approach kasi unang-una, when I'm talking about non-farm payroll, unang-una, alam ko kung anong oras lalabas yan. So all I have to do is wait for the actual data and then act on it accordingly. If the data became good for the US dollar, I buy the US dollar across the board. If the data is against the US dollar or bad for the US economy, then automatic yan. I sell the US dollar across the board. Ganon lang ka simple yan. Unlike monitoring it technically, I have to monitor it for quite some time. Do you follow? May questions? Kathleen, meron ba? Yes, meron ko. From Sir Romel. Sir, saan daw po ba maganda mag-research or mag-browse ng mga news about the economy, ng ibat-ibang bansa na naka-affect sa Forex? That's a good question, Romel. Yung website ng TickMeal meron yan dedicated for that. Meron yan makikitang economic calendar sa website ng TickMeal. You can use that. Since this event, this webinar, is sponsored by an adult on TickMeal. So I would strongly suggest that calendar. However, ako naman kasi, I am very, for the lack of better term, free-willing ko saan saan ako napapadpan. So I prefer a more independent website. And that website is the Forex Factory. Yung sa Forex Factory meron din calendar, Romel. So all you have to do is you register for an account there. Tapos i-lagay mong time zone natin, which is plus eight. Then, lahat na mga data na makikita muna sa calendar ay basis sa oras natin. So that's why, kang tomorrow, I know what time exactly the non-farm payroll will be released kasi nandogon sa tamang timeframe ko. I hope that answers the question, Romel. Now, yung non-farm payroll niyan, first Friday of the month, at anong oras na nalabas yan? So automatic radio, ah, hindi nako magbabantay ng mong araw ng Friday. Isang oras lang ang babantay ang ko at nalabas na yan. So ganoon din tayo bukas. Bukas, to be honest, I think we will start at seven. Tapos, pagkatapos natin mag-analyze ng strategy natin para bukas, I will politely beg off kasi I will now start concentrating on my accounts then. I have existing accounts that I need to attend to, kaya iiwan ko muna kayo. And I believe Pastor Shem will take over para may continuous training tayo. So again, andali-dali, kailan lalabas yung data every first Friday of the month? Anong oras lalabas ang data? A-13 ang gabi. I will see if you can see my calendar. Ladies and gentlemen, di pa, how do I do that? I share the screen. How about now? Yes sir. Oh, kita niya na. Okay. This is Romel. This is the economic calendar that I was talking about earlier, Forex Factory. And if you will notice, di pa ako nakalagin. Kaya hindi pa siya maayos. Pero eventually, since meron ako akad, all I have to do is lag in. And once I lag in, I go back to my calendar and then go to the very bottom, which is August 4. Bakit August 4? Kasi bukas. Actually ngayon, meron mga data may 7 o'clock, Bank of England monetary report. And then there's the ISM services. But that's for a different topic. We're concentrating now our topic on the non-farm employment change. Or more widely known as the non-farm payroll data. And if you will notice, di ba sabi kong ha? Kailan lalabas siya first Friday of the month? Tomorrow is the first Friday for August. And what time will it be released? 8.30 p.m. ng gabi. So hindi binang kumasa dung mag-analyse ng market. Bina ko magbabatay ng market. Pag malapit ng mag-8.30, saka ako mag-concentrate, I will start opening my accounts. And then anticipate the actual release of the data. Merong questions na lumabas siya ayon. Number one, itong 209, this is the previous figure. Last month, not for the month of July but for the month of June. Tapos ang 4th test nila, ang 4th test nila is 203 for the month of July. So bumabak, is this good or bad for the U.S. economy? For points, ano ang ating iniexpect? Ion, maraming pama. It's bad for the economy. Bakit kasi nung 1 ng June 209 yung pinaswell do, yung month ng July ang iniexpect nila is 203,000 lang. Pero merong kulang 6,000 ng trabaho. Although baka sabihin yung maliit yan, pero naka-impactin yan. So in a nutshell, ang anticipation ang karamihan is that it's going to be bad for the U.S. dollar or U.S. economy for that matter tomorrow. So mga iba nag-anticipate na ngayong pala mag-sell na. Bakit mag-sell na U.S. dollar? Ang sa ating, I would caution you guys. Huwag ninyong i-concentrate yung, or i-anticipate yung magiging movement ng market kasi because 203 yung lalabas na forecast. Baka mamaya nyan ay ang lumabas yung 203 actual or higher than 203. Remember, if the actual is the same as the forecast or even higher, it is anticipated to be good for the U.S. dollar. Kahit mas matas yung previous which is 209. So hintay natin lumabas yung actual figure. Huwag natin i-anticipate. Ito yung common problem dun sa mga kasama kung mga nag-trade. Kilalan nila Miss Sally, nila Miss Kathleen, nila Pastor Siam yung mga barkada ko. Minsan sa sobrang excited na ina-anticipate nila yung market nag-trade na kagad. Kahit gany ito, 209 previous, forecast is 203. Magsesel na yan ngayong palang. Minsan tumatama sila dahil kasi talaga sumaba yung actual. Minsan naman nakakamali sila dahil kasi in effect, good yung lumabas na actual na figure. There is a Q&A question. It's not related to the topic so I will just ignore that for the moment. So let's go back to the PowerPoint presentation. Clear naman po siguro yung pano natin babantayin ng market fundamentally. Ito yung example nung Nan Farm Payroll from the U.S. 200 yung previous, 180 yung forecast. Dapat bad yun pero yung lumabas 203. Ano nangyari, it was good for the U.S. dollar. And if you will notice, it's colored red. Meaning, it is high impact news. So talagang gagalaw at gagalaw ang market. Doon sa mga matagal na nagtitrate, you can understand lalo na yung baguan pasap fundamentals. Pero nako na kasaba yung mga trade ko sabi. Bakit gumagalaw yung market? Hindi naman pala siya nakabantay fundamentally. Ang binabantayin niya at technical approach niya. So purely charts, he's not watching the news. He's not reading the news. He's not even watching the TV sa office namin para ting nakatutok sa Bloomberg at sa CNBC. Nagugula siya bakit gumagalaw yung currency markets at ang bilis. Nagulit ako nang nakita ko. He was monitoring, analyzing the market. Technically, not fundamentally. So talagang magkakagulo siya, magkakagulo yung assessment sa market. At magugula. So dumilumabas yung actual, jang ka dapat tiki-kilos. So either you buy or you sell. Okay, I hope this is clear. Now, there's another event that I'd like you to closely monitor. And this is the interest rate. Yung interest rate, wawot bang sa meron yan. Yung mga central banks ang nagdidigta either erase ang interest rates or lower ang interest rates. Right now, magkanong interest rate natin sa Philippines? Would you know? Meron ba kayo ang bank accounts? Personal accounts or current accounts, meron naman siguro. And are you aware of the interest rate of the banks? Di ba sa Pilipinas is 0.03%? Ang nagdidigta niyan, central bank. At ang mag-implement yan, yung mga member banks no central bank na yan. So BPI, Metro Bank, BDO, yun ang mag-implement ng central bank. Hold on, may tanong si Mr. Rommel. Sir, ask ko lang kung how long mag-reflect sa market yung mga news nag-re-reflect ko bagad or it takes time. Rommel, mag-re-reflect agad. Mingsan, one minute before the data release gumagalaw na yung markete. So, instantaneous yan. It will have an immediate effect on the currency markets. Kaya ang bukas, importantin Rommel na baka atin din kayo uli ng webinar. Pag-usapan natin, particularly ang non-farm payroll. Di ba bukas? August 4. Ang anti-suitate na karimian, nag-agalaw ang market bukas because of the non-farm payroll. Now, since tayo mag-start tayo ng 6 p.m., pag-u-usapan natin yung pwede mangyari sa non-farm payroll yung pwede ng lumabas na effect. Lang naman natin, 209. Tapos ang forecast is 203. So, gagawa na tayo ng kubagan ng trading plan bukas. In anticipation of the actual release. Separi ang trading plans natin, will have several phases. Trading plan A, if the actual is lower than the forecast, so this is what we will do. And then trading plan B, if the actual is higher, is equal or higher than the forecast, so this is what we will do. So bukas yan, so Rommel, so I would appreciate it if I will see you again tomorrow. Para paahanon natin yan, mga babatayan natin. Maganda Rommel kumero na kayong trading accounts sa Tick Meal. And I'm not just asking you, I'm asking everyone, all 62 participants. Maganda kumero na kayong trading account. Para bukas, malimu baka makatsyamba ka. And from experience, I'd like to spare lang my trading experience. I am averaging 30% ROI on non-farm payroll data releases. 30% yan na, kaya yung mga clients ko, hindi na ako pinapagalitan kung bakit hindi ako nagtitrade ng Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Hindi na yung, hina sila nagtatanong sakin o bakit hindi ka nagtitrade ng the rest of the month. Kasi dun sa first week pala ng mga buwan, ay nag-generate ko na yung target namin. And remember, our target is only 15%. Ang nag-a-average ako, 20% to 30%. So 211 ang mga yung, kaya paging sitting pretty na kami. So yun yung nangyari sa amin. I do trade technical. Sumucho pita ako from time to time. So hinaagawa ko din yun. Alam ni Miss Ali, as early as 3 o'clock in the morning, gising na ako. Nitsa nag-chat na kami niyan, 3.15 pa lang yun habang nagluluto ako ng kapi ko. Nag-sitsikahan na nagmamaritesa na kami niyan. And in those times, dun ako nag-itrade ng technical. Alas stress nang umaga, isipin yun serado halos lahat ng mercado, di ba? So akit ng kote, bababa ng kote, akit ng kote. Nakukukuha ko nakagad kung ano yung pattern. So dun, ako, nakakapag-trade technical. Walang fundamental na anti-anticipation yun. Purely technical. So merong tanong uli. Kasi sa totoo lang, sir, kaming mga newbie nag-focus lang po talaga more on technical. We really don't know what's the importance of fundamental and how to apply it. I'm curious, Roman, how long have you been trading but puro technical lang? But that's good, no? At least now that you are opening your mind to a totally different level of analyzing the market. And this is beneficial to you, everyone. Fundamental. Okay, so I hope I was able to answer the question. Miss Kat, bump me here pag kaming panong uli. Para tuluy-tuluy tayo. Interest rates. Interest rates. Di ba lahat ama ng bangko may interest. So babantayan din natin ito kung interest rate na ito. Dalo kasi yun eh. Ang immediate effect ng interest rate, pag nag-grace ng interest rate ang central bank, ang immediate effect niyan is that it will be good for that particular instrument. So punwari ang U.S. nag-grace ng interest rates. Ang immediate effect niyan is that it is good for the U.S. dollar. So ang mangyare, majority, bulk ng mga 33, they will immediately take advantage of that new information that from this day forward, the new interest rate of the U.S. dollar is now this. So bobombahin ng baying nila ang U.S. dollar. So that is the immediate effect. Di ba? Now, anong yung long term? Interest rate. Actually, the long term effect is kung nari nag-grace nila ng interest rate is also the long term effect will be bad for the U.S. Ekonomi kasi hindi lang naman ang deposit rates ang mag-tataas. Paki ang lending rates ay tataas din. So, lalaki yung interest ng mga umuutang sabang ko, yun ang ibig sabihin doon. So, bigot din kay pa pano. Okay? So short term effect, you buy if they increase the interest rate, the short term effect is you buy. So, it is a short term effect. So, short term effect, you buy if they increase the interest rate, the short term effect is you buy. Pero the long term effect, of course hindi na natin naanin yan. Kaya kailangan yan kasi long term effect naman yan. Di naman natin kaya bantayan ng market o kaya you hold on yung position natin for so long. Okay? So, example, the interest rate from Europe. From 0.25 ang forecast is 0.25. Pero, Red, kung mapapansin niyo, hindi natin yung aktual. Kung nag-increasean to 0.26 or 0.27, it's not good for the European economy. Pero pagbiglayang bumagsak ng 0.20 ayon. Outright, you said the euro across the board. Do you follow? Okay. So, kung walang question, maganda itong crowd na ito. Walang question. Pero, mind you. Tapag walang question. Dalaway, matatalino yung mga nag-attend ngayon. Or hindi nagsikinig kasi walang question. Okay. Next naman, economic factor that we will be looking into will be the consumers price index. Yung CPI is composed of many factors. Kasi consumer, ikaw, as a consumer, ito yung mga pinaglalaanan mo ng gastros. Number one yan is yung housing, yung rent. If you're renting an apartment or if you own a house, you have to allocate funds for the taxes or for the renovation of that house. And then, of course, you allocate a percentage of your expenditures on food and beverages, on transportation, on apparel, recreation, education and communication. Sama na rin natin yung internet. So, nandiyo yan lahat yan. Now, the consumers price index or the CPI is a determinant of the level of inflation in an economy. And it is calculated by taking a household basket of goods and comparing it to the previous period. So, yung CPI, yung index na yan, kino-compute yan either month-on-month, minsan quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year. But in this case, m-o-m, nating na yung impact. Ano yung CHF? Anong country yan? Switzerland. So, yung CPI ng Switzerland, this is comparing to month-on-month. So, last month, two months ago, compared to last month, pag-release na yun, ito yung magiging exaktong accrux yan. Yung previous is negative point one. Yung forecast is negative point two. So, it was supposed to be bad for the Swiss economy. Pero nung lumabas yung actual, it was zero percent. So, it was actually good. So, anong nangyari? During that time, people started, traders started buying Swiss francs across the board. Ganon lang ano yan. Ang pag-analyze natin sa market. Napka simple lang. Napakandalek, di ba? Kailangan to bang bantayan ng market boong araw. Question is, no. Di ko na kailangan bang bantayan. Si-check ko lang kung kailang lalabas yan. Friday, kaya lang December 6 pa yung video. Tapos, 8.15 ng gabel. Yung follow. Ganon napakandalek. Di makailangan. Bantayan. Boong araw or boong month. Choose your battles accordingly. Okay. So, next. Ito na mansuguro nari, re-ignorein. Inatawag natin gross domestic product. GDP is normally reported quarterly and is followed closely by the primary indicator of the strength of the economic activity. Usually, a high GDP is followed by a high interest rate, which is mostly positive for the currency. So, di ba? Sabi ko sa inyo. Yung mga central banks sila nag-dedictate kung i-rerace nila o ilolower nila yung interest rate. Now, kapag tuloy-tuloy ang GDP, over a period of time, the central bank will consider raising the interest rates. So, dalawan na yung pwede nating pag-take advantage yan. Number one is GDP, the second is the interest rate. Di ba? Nde le, sarap mag-trade ng fundamental. Ito, example ito. GDP ng U.S. Yung last quarter, 2 quarters ago, the GDP was 2.8%. Ang ini-expect nila for this quarter, for the previous quarter, is that it has increased to 3%. So, ang anticipation ng mga world traders is that it's going to be good for the U.S. economy. So, ang anticipation nila yan is to initiate a buy or death. But a wise trader will always do what? Wait for the actual. So, yung nang aning na ka-actual. Kapag ang actual is 3% or higher, then you buy the U.S. dollar across the board. Pero if it's 2.9 or lower, imagine that 2.9 is even higher than the 2 quarters ago. Pero ang aning yan, ang immediate effect nyan is that you will see a decline or a depreciation in the U.S. dollar. Okay? So, there's a chat. Yes, question. Yes, question. Saan ba bumapase ang GDP sa pag-taas at sa pag-babak? Milaysio, I don't quite understand your question. Saan nagbabase ang GDP sa pag-taas at sa pag-babak? Inahan nyan. Kino-compute nyan sa atin ang nag-compute nyan yung neda. Iba, sila ang magsasabi kung pumasang ating GDP for the last quarter or kung bumaba. May kita mo din na yan sa mga balita, di ba? So, saan ba bumabase ang GDP? Di ba? Yung GDP is an accumulation of all the products that we have produced locally and internationally. Yan ang GDP. Ang GNP naman, ito yung local lang yung gross national product. Yung GDP, yung gross domestic product, ito yung produce natin locally at internationally. So, yan po ba yung tanong ninyo? Mr. Milaysio? Pwede, si Miss Marian, pwede po ba na fundamental lang pagbasihan, pag nagtitrate? O po, Miss Marian? Pwede. Minsan sa isang month po fundamental sa trading ko, walang technically. Yes, Mr. Milaysio, sa lahat ng products natin, yung domestic product both local and international kasi ang GDP, ang GNP yung local lang. Okay. So, moving forward, dito na tayo sa GDP, nang yung data na ang actual, we have to wait for it, okay? Now, another one that I'd like you to check is the durable goods. Yung durable goods naman ang nagpre-preperng yan, ay yung Bureau of Census. It reflects new orders, place with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory-hired goods. In the near term or future, ang durable goods normally can sing twice a month. Kaya magandang bantayan ko kasi, twice a month. Hindi dalo ang beses tayo matitrade niyan. Ang mga binabantayan natin yan, ay yung mga shipments, mga inventory sa mga order, yung mga nasa manufacturing industry, ay roka yung tinatawog na purchase order. So, nang nakikita yung mga Bureau of Census at akapag-create sila ng durable goods data. And from there, we act accordingly. Kapag gumanda yung durable goods, tumas, we buy. Kapag gumaba, we sell. So, merong question si Miss Marian. Sir, another akurit naman po yung data when it comes to fundamental. Ay, yung data, they're accurate. No? Kasi, may mga government agencies, pero siguro Miss Marian ang tanong ay, how will the market affect or react to the data? Dito na papasok ngayon yung tinatawog na market sentiments. This will be discussed in a different webinar. Not on the fundamental. Pero tama po kayo, akurit naman yung mga data na yan. Bihira naman yung nakakaroon ng revisions. When they release the figures, it's almost always that's the actual data that they have gathered. Yung forecast ang, kaya natinawog na forecast Miss Mayan kasi, hula. Pero yung actual ay hindi yung hula. Kami basihan sila sa mga statistics nila. Ang tanong diyan eh, ponohare, yung GDP lumabas good for the US dollar. Pero anangyari sa market bumagsak. Yun ba yung tanong mo Miss Mayan? If that is the question, I will answer that by, depended talaga sa market sentiment. The biggest market sentiment movement that I was able to witness, but this was in the 90s pa. Everyone, all central banks are trying to help the British pound. Pero anangyari, bagsak ng bagsak yung British pound. So, iba mga central banks, they are buying the British pound. So pagbinayin nila yung British pound, supply and demand. Koko tiyong supply, magmamahal dapat ang British pound, di ba? Pero, nagtataka ako, bakit bumabagsak yung halaga ng British pound? So, hindi necessarily tuto o ang balita, hindi, tuto o yung balita. Pero hindi necessarily mag-comply ang trader sa balita. I hope that clears the question. But in a normal setting, in a normal environment, kung ano yung lumabas, if it's good for the US dollar, most likely the result will, the outcome will be good for the US dollar also. Bihirang bihirang na maging good for the US dollar, tapos bumabagsak yung dollar for that particular event. And this is why I love trading the fundamentals. Kasi yan yung overall scenario. And mind you, for those technical traders, I'm not very telling technical analysis. Kung kayo nag-analyze ng market, kung narin, hindi nyo alam namin na-farm perils bukas, nag-analyze kayo ng market. At ang base sa inyong analysis is that you buy the US dollar. Tapos big lang lumabas yung data ng na-farm perils, ang lumabas instead of 306, e naging 301. So that is definitely bad for the US dollar, di ba? And automatic, ah, nung gagawin ni Nathan, he will sell the US dollar. E ikaw technically nakabay ka na. What do you think will happen to the rest of the traders who are monitoring the na-farm perils? They will most likely sell, like me, sell the US dollar, di ba? So across the board yan, e ikaw nakabay ka na US dollar, kami mag-sell. So plain demand, silang mas manan ay dung particular moment na yung yung mga nagbedenta ng US dollar o yung mga nakabili na at balak bumili pa. So ang mga niyari na, maglalabanan tayo di ba? Pag mas marami sales ano sa tingin yung mga niyari sa price yung naturalmente ba, babayan. Di ba? So plain demand. So kung ikaw nakabay ka, technically, e to parati ko si Nathan, kung ikaw yung nakatechnikal, at may lumabas na fundamental, e disregard mo na yung taknikal. Kasi talagang sasagasaan at sasagasaan niya na fundamental. Wala problema ako yung technical mo at saka yung fundamental, e nagtugma, e pa paano kung hindi. Kusalongat, you respect the fundamental at yun ang sundin mo. Hindi yung technical. I hope that's clear. Sorry ah, nag-mute ako kasi ang tubig. Atang mga, nakakaya ma-rinig yung lagok ng paglono ko ng tubig. Kaya minyon, nag-mute mo na ako. Okay, so no questions, ay ang galing naman, na katu atong grupo na to. Okay, next, detail sales. Ano ba ang detail sales? Ito naman report that is captured on the sales of retail stores, ano ba mga retail stores sa atin? H&M, Uniqlo, SM, Robinson's, Ayalamol's, so yes, Carlo, you have raised your question, your hand. Please type your question at chat box. Thank you. So, yung retail sales ba bantayan din natin yan, kasi, the same premise, lahat naman sila ganunin. Yung actual, ako compare natin sa forecast. At, dependis sa figures talalabas, if it's equal or higher than the forecast, then it's good. No? But if it's lower than the forecast, and then it is bad. Ganun lang yung interpretation niyan. Yon. And if you will notice, hula yung kanyang impact, so ibig sabihin talagang marami nagbabatay ng economic data release na yan. In this case sa Australia, the data release of the retail sales. Month on month, M slash M. So month on month iyan. Questions po? Parang wala kayin tanong. Ayun, meron tanong ngayon, dalawa na hbigla. You said, ang gold po ba, saan ko mukawa na economic event? What do you mean, saan ko mukawa na economic event? Ang gold. Mr. You said, I kind of confused with the question, saan ko mukawa ang gold na economic event? Mr. I appreciate, you said if you can rephrase your question. Si Romel. Sir nangyari narin ba minsan example euro dollar ten both currency or country has good impact news to their economy how to decide to buy Fundamentally. Hindi siyan nangyari Romel, alam mo ang bakit, kasi makaiba ng time zones yung euro at sa kayong dollar. Kaya yung mga data sa euro normally lumalabas siyan hapon sa oras natin. Tapos yung mga data sa US normally lumalabas siyan gabay sa oras natin. Hindi siyan nagsasabay. So that's the way I understand your question. Sabi mo example, euro at saka dollar both currency or country has good impact news to their economy. So how to decide? Ayun nang, hindi nangyari yan. Bihirang, bihira. Actually hindi nangyari at hindi bihira. Hindi talaga nangyari. If you're going to trade events based in euro, most likely hapon yan. So sa hapon mo itit trade yung data naman gagaling sa Europe. So ang trading ng fundamental hindi naman tumatagal ng oras siyan ay minsan minuto lang. So pagkunari trade balance ng Europe lumabas good for the euro. You bought the euro and then after three or four or five minutes you liquidated, you make money. And then you wait now for the US time zone. At dun ka naman ngayon, mag-trade. And you concentrate your efforts on the US dollar. Hindi yung sa euro na. US dollar na. So hindi yung nangyari na nakakasabay sila. You said yung sanpo basis ang fundamental analysis ng gold. Ah, okay. Sige. Gold is predominantly being handled in Russia. India and Africa. So dun po kayo magbabase yung mga economic calendars, events do sa mga bansa na yun. Yung tanong niyo. I hope I was able to answer the question you said. So sanpo mukuhan ng news sa gold. Ayun nga po. Gold is predominantly affected by the news from Russia, from Africa and from India. Ito yung mga major players ng gold. Yun. Ang rasyang marami pati oil nakakapicto siya sa movement ng oil. Okay. So no more question. Bakit may Q&A na naman? Si Mr. Milensia, sir. Yung binanggit yung mga items sa fundamental ay sa bawat currency at country iyon ang uobservahan bago kami mag-trade kung fundamental lang ang basihan. Taka. Basihan ko ulit. Sige, sige, sir. Yes, Milensia. Yung trade balance, sempre, trade balance ng U.S. the you trade the U.S. dollar. Kung trade balance ng Japanyan, e di you trade the Japanese who retails sales ng Australia, e di you trade the Australian currency. Diba, nung inumpisang ko i-discuss ang economic calendar. Diba, there was a time that I mentioned the flags pertaining to the country. So kung ane yung mga binabatayan natin bawat currency at bansa, tuta yung magbabasin ng ating trade. Okay, so I hope that answers the question. Si Marion, okay, e-mail. May hinihing e-mail sila. So, Miss Kathleen, ikaw ng bahaladon. Yes, pa. Okay, so moving on. Retail sales tapos na tayo. Next topic, importante rin sa lahat, no, unemployment. Unlike in the U.S., dito sa Pilipinas, hindi natin na re-record ang unemployment, kasi di ba, minsan, hindi, hindi, hindi ganon to efficient ang ating statistics office. Pero sa U.S., kaya nila na re-record yan, kasi kapag ikaw nga re, ikaw biglakan na yung unemployed. You can actually go to the government and ask help. Bibigang kanila ng ng tulong. Kaya nga di ba, meron mga sub-kitchens around the, across the country. Pwede kasi lang humingin ng peras of government. Sa ating ayuda, nangyari lang nung COVID. In my in my whole life, nimiinsan, digo na rinig na nagbibigay yung tera ang government, except nung nag COVID tayo. Now, in other countries, they can record unemployment with certain accuracy, simply because they have a good running system for their statistics. Unlike satan, hindi naman na anean. And in fact, pwede nga sabihin ay yung mga jeep, ni drivers, mga track drivers. Hindi nga na pupunta yung, hindi natin na re-record ng mga yan, kasi simply because they don't actually, I'm not saying, or belittling them or accusing them of bag, no? Pero do they report their earnings to the government by way of paying taxes? I don't think so. Meron akong pilala na jeep ni driver nimiinsan, hindi na nagbibig ng buis. Hindi sa mga re-record, but in other countries, they are being recorded properly. So it is safe to assume that they have a running, a good running idea on the number of employed citizens and unemployed citizens. So of course, unemployment of pinagusapan. So balik tayo dun sa premiss na a decrease in the payroll employment. At such, will signify a weak economy. Kasi kumonte yung yung yung yung e-trabaho, kumonte yung yung economic activity, yung ganansya or yung gains, hindi ganan ka lakas kesa sa mas maraming employed kesa sa unemployed. Two questions again. Hindi pala questions. Okay. Miss Kat, just bump me here kapag yung question is on topic. Okay, so unemployment. Thank you. Let's talk about unemployment in the US kasi yung yung yung nandoodun nakadictate dito sa example na ito. Yung previous is 7.3%. Ang forecast is 7.2%. So this is supposed to be good for the US dollar. Diba? For the US economy. Kumonte yung unemployed from 7.3 naging 7.2. So ang anticipation yan is to buy the US dollar. Pero nung lumobas yung actual yung actual is 7%. So mas maganda pa nung lumobas yung actual kaya tinan yung kulay dilaw. Ah merdi. So nung lumobas yan ang nangyari is that trade growth will immediately take advantage of the unemployment rate figures and then buy the US dollar across the board. So buy the US dollar against yen. Buy the US dollar against euro. Buy the US dollar against the gold. Yung tinatan nung kanina ni sino ba yung pagtapa? Alimut ako na yung name. But asyado siyang concentrated sa gold. So in this case, this is good for the US dollar. You sell gold and buy the US dollar. Kasi di ba ang instrument naman natin dito sa ating MP4 is gold pitted against the US dollar. Diba. It's not gold pitted against the Japanese yen or gold against the euro. But it is gold pitted against the US dollar. So when the dollar is good, so we are expecting the dollar to go increase in value and then you sell the gold. Okay. So yung po yung ating approach sa fundamental analysis taking advantage of the unemployment rate. Sir, may question po si Sir Ronald follow up. So may laki rin po ang effect nito sa trading? Oo, malaki. Malaki malaki. Like I said, on average, I'm generating between 20% and 30% sa non-farm payroll lang. I don't trade much on technical but mainly on fundamental. Particularly the non-farm payroll. Kaya nga bukas, pagusapan natin yan. At magkakaran ng maliit na presentation on how to approach the non-farm payroll data release tomorrow. Malaking effect talaga yan. At immediate yung effect nya. Then after 5-10 minutes, minsan nga nagaan na nene, na wawala na yung effect, mag-start, mag-stagnate na yung movement. So I hope that answers the question. Okay. So yung initial job claims. Ito yung jobless claims. Diba, wala ka ng trabaho. Ito mga Amerikano, puputa sa government yan at magkiklaim. So kapang nag-claim sila ng financial aid, na re-record ng U.S. government. And with this, we are able to take advantage of that figure kapag nag-release lang ng data. Okay. Let's take a lang. Si Mileso, sir, yung bang mga data na iyan sa fundamental sabay-sabay lumalabas, o may mga araw na dapat sundan para malaman kung mag-buy or mag-sell. Okay. Mileso, magandang tanong yan. Hindi yan sabay-sabay. Iba-ibang araw yan. At iba-ibang day ng week. At minsan iba-ibang oras, kasi may trade balance ang Japan. So, ang data ng data-release niyan sa malaman, madaling araw, ang day, di naman madaling araw, mga 7 o'clock ng umaga, oras natin. Meron ding trade balance ang ang Australia. So, 6 hours sila ahead sa atin. So, yung 8 o'clock nila, 2 o'clock am natin. So, pwede kang mag-take advantage ng 2 o'clock ng umaga. Yung sa mga US data naman, 8.30 yan ka dalasan, pero iba 10.30 lumalabas. So, Mileso hindi sila sabay-sabay lumalabas, iba-ibang araw, iba-ibang oras. Ion, I hope that clears. Paano naman masundan may mga table or chart? Mileso punta ka sa Forex Factory? Mame, open ka ng isang tab sa browser mo, punta ka sa Forex Factory, tapos iklik mo dun yung calendar. And you will see, for the rest of the week, for Monday to Friday next week, ilalagay na nila yung mga data, data forecast, at yung data releases nila for next week. Siyempre, Friday na bukas, so last day of the week na yan. Concentrate mo nila, tapos na yung Monday to Thursday, so concentrate mo nila yung Friday. So, dun makikita yan. Okay? So, sa calendar lang po, na dun-dun yung schedule. Yan. So balik tayo, initial jobless gains yun. Sa America kasi, kapag nawalang ka na nintramaho, you can claim for assistance or for help dun sa U.S. na like sa atin dito, bigla ka sinisante, wala eh. Wala nga ganoon sa atin, na pupunta ka sa government. Nungo ko, ganoon bang effect ng kadiywa, di ba? Re-revive nila yung kadiywa. Sana ganoon, but, nevertheless, let's talk about the U.S. jobless claims. Yan. Wala pa yung forecast, pero kagay niya, 322 yung nag-claim last week, last, four-week average pala yan, so last month. So, mag-release nyan ng forecast. So, either, it's higher than 332,000 or it's lower than 332,000. Whatever the case may be, we can more likely anticipate what to expect, di ba? So, ito, ito tanong ko, for five points, madali lang ba mag-analyze ng fundamental? Yes or no lang naman nyan, di ba? Three answers. Yes, dali lang eh. Saka ang maganda rito, kung anong oras, kung anong araw, dun mo lang sa ibabantayan, dun mo lang sa ititrain. So, hindi ka masyadong poyat, di ka hirap. Yan. So, ito naman, yung housing starts. Yung housing starts, ito naman yung mga, umpisa magpatayong ng bahay, yung nang infrastructure, apartment, condo o ng farm, so housing starts ang tawag dyaan. Sa America, nakukuhan nila yan, pero dito sa atin, hindi nare-record yan. Yung minsan talagang hirap na hirap tayo sa, mag-analyze ng Philippine economy, because of that. As si Rommel, as site sanan for our payroll, is there any event na dapat bantayan regularly? Like what you said, every first Friday. Ito po, dami na po natin na pukusapan Rommel. Meriteng safes na tayo, may jubbless claims na tayo, may trade balance na tayo, may housing starts na tayo. You have to just look at the economic calendar. And again, diba i-mentioned that my personal choice is that I only trade the high impact news. So, yung mga high impact news, ito yung mga pula yung naka-listas sa kanya. So, yun lang po yung babantayan ko. However, itong housing starts color yellow, so medium impact lang yan. But you can still take advantage of that. Ito yung Portuguese GDP, babantay mo pa ba yan? Hindi na. Quarter, year on year, quarter on quarter, it's up to you. Pero ayana po yung calendar, nandijad yan na po lahat. I have already mentioned so many economic events that you can take advantage of. So, you choose. Tino concentrate ko lang yung sa non-farm payroll, kasi talaga malakasang galaon yan. Kaya nga bukas, mayro tayong linalaan isang webinar para doon lang. So, Romel, I depreciate it if you can come tomorrow, attend the webinar tomorrow. Okay? So, moving forward, housing starts. So, ang pre-use, 198,000. Ang forecast, 195,000. Pero ang lumabas, 192,000. And if you will notice, po lahat. So, it means it's bad for the Canadian currency, no? So, nung lumabas ang data na yan, if I was monitoring the data, I would have sold the LUNI. Atic across the board. Sa LUNI by N, Sa LUNI by OC, Sa LUNI by dollar, US dollar, so on and so forth. Okay? So, ganun yung anun yan, ang ang pag-analyze at pano mo titirahin yan. So, sarap, di ba? Mis-chedule ka kung kailan ka lang mag-titrade. Okay. Now, let's talk about the most important group of people in the United States of America. This is the Federal Open Market Committee. Diba ang America is mainly consisted of 55 different states, di ba? So, in the United States, meron gobernor. So, yung gobernor na yun, that acts as the the mini-president of that state, di ba? Kung nare, in Texas, in gobernor na in Texas, parang say yung mini-president ng ng region na yun, yung state na yun. Now, you open up your map to look for the America, so meron Hawaii, the different states in North America, yung California, ah, California yung California, Texas, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, different gobernors yan, but I'm not talking about the gobernors. I'm just saying that these are the mini-presidents. Now, eto yung open market committee, federal open market committee. Syempre, since mini- mini-country yung mga yan, independent state, pero din silang central bank. So, ba what state sa U.S.? Mika niya kanyang central bank gobernor. Eh, this is a member of the federal open market committee. Now, this FOMC, they meet eight times every year, no? So, they meet eight times per year to set key interest rates, such as the discount rate, no? Or the lending rate, no? Yung. Dependiyan sa paraming factors. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Yung. Paraming factors. Isan na dyan yung GDP. Yung. Diting na nila yan kung nag-increase yung GDP in most cases, increase din nila yung interest rate. So on and so forth. But however they decide, no? Eh, importante na pag kamerong mga meeting-meeting yung mga yan, eh, babantayin din natin. Although sa economic calendar, no figures, no forecast and no actual. Pero li na lagayan doon. Kagay dito, no? Eh, FOMC member, no? Si Fisher nag-salita. And remind yung, no? Lat yung mga yan, no? Minsan, pag nag-salita na sinabi nila, the dollar is weak, talagang babags sa kandala. Pag sinabi nila na, our economy is getting stronger, kahit wala sinasinabi. Alam mo yung mga traders, they will immediately start buying the US dollar. So again, ako titig na ninyo, wala naman figures, wala nang actual, but it is important, they are figures of, heads of state, tiba? Kaya, kailangan din natin babantayan. Okay? Sa Pilipinas, i-salang ang governor natin eh. Tiba? So hindi ka gaya sa kanila, na meron silang open market committee. Okay? So, ayan, next naman ang pag-uusapan natin, ay ang trade balance, budget and treasury, ah, treasury budget. Sa trade balance, dalawa yan. Meron tayong surplus, pag sinabing trade surplus, ibig sabihin, mas marami yung export ng bansana yun, kesa sa import. Kapag naging trade deficit naman, ibig sabihin, mas marami ang importation ng bansana yun, kesa sa exportation. Yan. Example naman naka surplus, China. Mas marami silang hini export, kesa hini import. Isa pa jyan yung Japan. Mas marami silang hini export, kesa hini import. Ang Philippines ay nakadeficit, mas marami tayong imported na kumapasok, kesa sa mga export na ipinapalabas sa bansan natin. Yun. So, importantin na nalalaman natin, ang trade balance. Etong example natin, although medyong impact yan, but I consider that also important. Kaya ko ginamit as example dito. Ang ating previous is 10.10 billion negative. Tapos, naging negative 9.35. So that was supposed to be good kasi magzi-zero na. Ibig sabihin, pag nag-zero yan, yung import at yung export equal na. Iba? So, from 10.10, negative 10.10, naging negative 9.35 nalang. So, ang anticipation is that it's good for the British economy. However, yung lumabas yung actual, ang lumabas na actual is negative 9.73. So, mas malalin, mas negative pa, mas mababa pas na negative 9.35. Kaya kinulayin sa ng pula. When that happened, a lot of traders during that time, at exactly 9.30, they started selling off the British pound across the board. Gets nyo? So, ganyan lang mag-trade. And imagine, may particular time yan, darating kung anong oras, at kung anong day, pingnan nyo lang yung calendar, hanapin nyo lang yung mga pula sa kaya yung mga dilao. Iba? Pog nyo na ma-itrade lahat, kailo mapapagod kaya yung, 24.7 kailin nag-itrade, basically. Okay? So, meron ko ba tayo? Ayan. Wala masyadong question, kaya ma-agatahin na tapos. So, may nagtanong kanina, ano ba yung mga fundamental events na babantayan natin? Ito na po sila. In a nutshell. Ang janyong interest rates, ang janyong consumer price index, industrial production, unemployment rate, employment rates, non-farm payroll, ang janyong gross domestic product, producers price index, retail sales, housing starts, too many to enumerate. All this will have an effect on the market volatility kasi it will be talking about the economies of those countries that release the economic event. And by such, it will also have an effect on the currency markets. So, itong kagandahan sa fundamental analysis, you get to choose your battles. You don't go to war every time there's you don't go fighting every time there's a war, dito you choose your battles. Pamily ka. I'm not saying yung sundin mo lang itong mga to. I'm not saying that. You look at the calendar at napakaraming pulad dyan. Hindi lang itong mga to. So, you choose your battles accordingly. So, yung po ang fundamental analysis. And tomorrow, mag-gidiskas tayo sa non-farm payroll. Mr. Milesio, paano nga pala mga oras nyan para observayin namin. May automatic conversion ba oras nyan? Nang lahat, ng ibang-ibang bansa, nga gaga. Okay, balik tayo dito. Milesio dito sa ekonomi calendar ko. Can you see my screen? Patin? Hindi pa, sir. Hindi pa, pa, sir. Hindi pa. Ang hirap pala nito. I have to share every time. How about now? Yes, sir. Yan, si Milesio tanon nyan kung ano oras nyo nga babantayin. Ito, start tayo. No Monday, ilan yung mga makulad dyan. Meron nung 9.30 a.m. Bakit 9.30 a.m.? Kasi nakalagin ako. Pero, pag klinikitong time zone, it will reflect the proper time zone na. I-re-refresh ko lang siya. Ayun. 6.36 ngayon, ngayon 7.39 na. So, it is reflecting the correct time. My time, akong dung sa mga iba-ibang bansa. In this case, 9.30 a.m., manufacturing PMI sa China. Tamayan. Nung 9.30 manila time, lumabas yung manufacturing PMI sa pang mga pula dito, nung August 1. At 12.30 p.m. sa Australia, meron RBA cost statement at sa cost rate sa Australia. 12.30 manila time nyan. Ganon din dito sa ISM, at saka George's Job Opening. 10 p.m. sa US, galing yung data, pero 10 p.m. yung manila. Wednesday, as early as 6.45 meron na sa New Zealand, dalawa, unemployment rate at saka employment change. And then nung pagdating nung 8.15 sa USA din naman, sa America meron din non-farm employment ADP. So, that should also give you an example what to expect this coming Friday kasi ting nang mong good yung lumabas. Okay. So, Malaysia, I hope that answers the question. Panon yung malalaman kung anong oras at saka kung anong yung oobservahanin nyo. Automatic yan. So long as you check the time zone, it has to be correct. In my case, pag-refresh ko tong page na to, hindi na, 7.41 na yung oras, which is tama na dito sa oras ko. Okay. So, ayan. Ayan na si Mr. Alvin Nuke. Good evening, sir. Kamusta po kayo. Kayo daw po magdiliskas bukas. Kain dalawa ni Sir Shem. Ayan. Si Mr. Lulita, will you advise, sir, that fundamental analysis is better for newbies? Oo naman, no? Kasi hindi mo na kailangan mag-analyze ng market na nababantay ng marketing. So, I would say na it is also good for the newbies. It's not just for the experts, no? It's also good for the newbies. You can also trade it accordingly. Ayan. So, ang babait ng atendis natin, Miss Sally, wala masyadong kanong. Sir, may namispo pala tayong question from Sir Milord. Coach, pwede po bang mag-antay ng actual result sa Forex calendar? Pero kailangan po ba na naka-register para mabilis mag-reflect yung result sa Forex calendar? Oo, ganda mag-anooka. Mag-register ka. And also, what are you seeing on your screen? Are you seeing the Forex calendar? Yes, sir. Oo. Bukas may lalabas dito na parang, parang bilog. Pag-clinic mo yun, it will update the whole page. No? And then, pagkamero ng actual, saka siya mag-re-reflect siya. Sa ngayon kasi wala pa, dahil kasi A30 lalabas yung data dito sa any planet claims. Pero mayang-mayang konte, makakaroonan ng bilog dito. At yung bilog na yung, pagpinindot mo, it will refresh the page. So, automatic yun, mag-re-reflect ng data actual. But nonetheless, kagay niya, etong page na tungayon, etong page ko sa Forex factory is static. So all I have to do is to press the refresh rate, na refresh button. And then kanina 7.41, nga yung 7.43 pm na. So now it's reflecting the proper details. Yung oras tamang tama yan, ang yung, yung mga countries, yung impact, yung event itself. And then, pagtinignan mo dito, mayroon dapat mga lumalabas ng bilog. And that's the time. All you have to do is kagay ni to tatlung maglalabasan ng A-30. Tatlung, that's yung bilog nalalabas dito. But we just click one of them. And then it will, it will refresh the whole page. Okay. So, miss Kathleen na, okay na ba yung tanong? Ah, yes po. And sa question and answer, question from Sir Abbott. So, kailin po ba dapat mag-place ng trade kapag may high impact news right after the news or panipas muna ng ilang minutes? Ah, high impact news right after the news. Indi right after the news, right after the release of the actual data. Abbott, pag lumabas na yung actual data, then you act accordingly. If it's good for the dollar, then you buy the US dollar. If it's bad for the US economy, you sell the US dollar. Actually, kaya nga, di ba sabi ko nga sa inyo, eh, itong kagandaan ng fundamental analysis kasi kagay bukas, alam ko kung anong importance bukas ay lalabas yung non-farm payroll, anong oras, 8.30, anong araw, first Friday of the month, bukas first Friday of the month. So, I know when to choose my battle at kailin ako makikipagsapala rang, di ba? So, anong oras ako dapat nag-internate? 8.30. Pero miss, anong yan, miss strategy, yan, di kasi minsan, pag lalabas na data, masadong malakasang galaw na market at gusto mong bumili, hindi ka makapaso, kasi nagbabago na yung preso. So, bukas, ito turunin sir Alvin yan at siya ka ni Sir Kim kung paano tayo mag-intern ng trade. Bukas yan, kaya, wag kayong mawawala. Okay? Ayon, similesyo, anong time frame sa chart pattern ng MT4 kung fundamental. Technical yung tanong mo, milesyo, pero magandang tanong parin yan, kasi I want to see the blow-by-blow account of the movement on the chart, di ba? So, ang gagamiting kung time frame dito, milesyo, is the minute time frame. Para kong tinky boat, within one minute na, ikita ko yung galaw niya up or down, di ba? Hindi mo pwede yung makita yan sa one month or sa one week or sa one day, sa one or one hour, may kita mo kumikilos, pero hindi evidente, pero pag ilinagaming time frame mo sa one minute, kita ang kita yung galaw. Okay? Milesyo, bukas. Tingnan mo yan, makikita natin bukas yan. Tutulungan, jajan, tutulungan tayo ni Sir Sam at siya ka ni Sir Alvin. Yan. Romel, may tanong. Sir, based on your experience, how will you rate fundamental analysis effectiveness on percentage? Based on against what Romel, effectiveness niya, based on what? You have to have some form of comparison here. If you're telling me to compare it with technical, yun ba yung tanong mo? Mas effective ang fundamental, di ba sinabi ko nga kanina kung meron tan technical trade na yun, tapos bigla may fundamental nalunobas, kahit anong sinasabi ng technical mo, wawasi-wasin yan ng fundamental. Pwera nalang kung tugmahay yung fundamental movement at saka yung electrical order na tinitrade mo. Okay? Paano yung kung sa lunga, sabi nung technical mo to buy the US dollar, pero may fundamental nalunobas, biglang inassassinate si Biden. Ano sa tinim mo mangyari sa market? Nga akit dahil kasi solid yung technical mo o susundin yung fundamental. So dun pa lang may kitamuna na ang bias talaga, may makupunta talaga sa fundamental. Now, if you're talking about the fundamental analysis and effectiveness per se, so let's say the non-farm payroll, ay there is no concrete answer to that, Romel, kasi kukunawaring two timeframes kang live, bumilika ay gumalon ng market, kontinal lang yung magiging effective ano mo, di ba? Profit potential mo. Compare to those who were able to buy at the onset of the data release. Di mas malaki yung kita nila, so hindi mo mako-compute yung presentation. If it's effective, yes or no, if that's the basis for the question, then the answer is going to be yes. It is very effective, pero in terms of percentage, nang mahirap sa gating yan. Alam ni Miss Kathleen nito ay nung nang titred kami sa iFab no, there were six of us traders, lahat-lahat kami, pare-pareho kami nang binili, pero iba-ibang risulta namin. So yung ganung effectiveness, iba-ibang experience traders na so iba-ibang talaga yung risulta. Malalaman natin yan, sa technical analysis training natin but sa part two. Miss Mayan, pasible pa rin po ba, makaroon ng losses sa pag-trade na fundamental analysis? Yes, it's very possible. May time na iba yung market sentiment, may time na mali ang intindi mo sa fundamental event. Maraming factors Miss Mayan, human error mostly ang dahilan. Hindi pilot, hindi mechanical error. Okay, so with that, I conclude, wala na masadong tanong. Mileso kita tayo bukas sa maganda yung topic bukas ay. At inya, sabi ko sa inyo, I'm averaging 20 to 30% ROI on my trades. When I'm trading, then I'm far payroll. Okay, so Miss Scott, we're done here. So ano po ang maganda natin gawin? Okay lang sir, so at least we finish early para at least maagarin makapag-dressed at makapag-diner na rin yung mga participants natin. Kayo sir, baka hindi paring ginag-diner. Okay, nag-stock din ako before. So again, thank you very much Sir Nathan for this wonderful training and I know marami po ang natutunan yung mga umaden ngayon. And before that guys, alam ko po na magre-request po kayo ng inyong recorded videos po. Please do leave your e-mail address para at least makapag-send po kami available. However, kailangan po, meron po tayong verified accounts, kasi advance na po ito. So meaning kailangan nag-getrayed na po tayo or at least meron po tayong mag-paglalagyan ng accounts and at the same time maya-appla yung ating natutunan from Sir Nathan. So again guys, thank you so much Sir Nathan. So before we close, again we always make sure na we thank God for everything na natutunan natin ngayon. Please join me for our closing prayer. Father God, we thank you for this wonderful night at marami po kami natutunan at marami rin po umatend sa aming training ngayon. And we hope Lord na ma-apply namin at maibikin namin at ma-share yung aming mga natutunan sa abing mga kaibigan, kamag-anak at mga tao na gusto namin ma-share yung opportunity and the knowledge na meron kami ngayon. And Lord we pray na maka-attend po kami unit tomorrow and mas marami po ang matutunan at ma-apply ko anong pinag-arala namin ngayon. Lord, we give you back all the praises and glory in Jesus' name we pray. Amen. Ayon. Thank you so much Sir Nathan and thank you so much ma-apply. Okay po, sir. Thank you po. See you tomorrow again. See you tomorrow. Okay sir, bye-bye po. Okay. So guys, again you know the drill, please leave your email addresses. Again, we require you to have a verified email address. Just send a message po kay ma-apply and how to to register and anong po yung mga kailangan natin gawin para makaroon ang verified account. So again, magbibigay po kami ng sorry, certificate. If you will finish po yung ating seven webinars ano, although we also allowed po at least mga five webinars na ma-attainan ninyo bago kay mabigyan ng certificate po of attendance para po sa webinar na to. So guys, I hope you will attend tomorrow. That's a very good example na makikita ninyo ang magandang most awaited event sa U.S. market. Makikita ninyo yung fundamental analysis na atinguro ngayong gabi at may apply po yung tomorrow. And very exciting. In fact, alam nyo guys, nang fisi mula pa lang ako ng trade now. Sir Nathan din yung nagtuturo sa amin that time. Umahatin kami jaring, December kasi yun, so medyo DST na. So dumarating kami alas 9, guys alas 9 ng gabi nakikita kami sa Makati just to attend this non-farm payroll. So the good thing about today, ay tomorrow is talagang online lang tayo and that will be led tomorrow by Sir Nathan, of course. And sasamahan din tayo na pastor siya. Malis lang siya ngayong nang masangakas because yes. Naglag po. Ay sorry, sorry. Ayon, ang hirap talagap kung umoulan but anyway yun, tomorrow guys please do join us for the non-farm payroll trade natin. So please try to create your account tomorrow on demo kung pwede kung kaya e-mail or send a message to ma'am Katlin how to register one. Okay, so are we done? Nakapag-leave na ba kayo nang e-mail addresses? So ma'am Katlin can get it para masenden po kayo those merong verified account. Are we done na ma'am Katlin? May mga humahabul paya tama. Okay, okay. Okay, so basta in case po na hindi po kaya nakakawa ay may nakapag-leave ng e-mail addresses pwede yun pung EPM or sendan ng personal message sa Facebook si ma'am Katlin. So bahanapin yun lang po MIS Katlin para po guide kayo at ma begin kayo ng recording. Okay. So again, thank you ma'am Katlin guys enjoy your dinner sa mga hindi pa nag-e-diner and enjoy the rest of the night. God bless everyone. Okay, bye-bye. Ma'am Katlin go ahead. Okay, bye.