 Okay, very good morning. It's Friday the 22nd of October. I hope you're doing well. And before I begin with a normal briefing Don't forget to check out the latest market maker Amplify me podcast episodes. Just search for that title on things like Apple podcast Spotify Google podcast and so on You'll find it again this week. We've introduced a brand new series within the channel Which is called career hacks and we got the first inaugural episode out on Wednesday about how to prepare for a virtual Assessment center. So this is all geared towards students who are going through that really challenging application cycle at the moment There's gonna be a new episode every Wednesday going forward where we'll deep dive into some of these key issues like how to navigate a higher view Interview how to really maximize a group exercise things of that nature This will accompany and don't worry for any traders investors and so on that follow the channel Still our weekly end of week wrap up of some of the major events and Eddie and I are gonna be jumping on that podcast Which we'll go out later today So remember to check that out and if you like it really appreciate it We're on the the pursuit of a hundred ratings on the rating for the for the Apple platform We're on 83 at the moment so jump on there help us out help us bump up the rankings to get the word out So as many people as possible of you much Appreciated but otherwise look let's have a quick look at what's going on today And I'm gonna talk about in this briefing a couple things We had a record close on the S&P, but then NASDAQ aftermarket weakness So we'll look at some of those post-market earnings particularly in the social media space on the back of snap Earnings, which I'll explain more in a moment. Also the UK rate debate rages on after some Interesting comments and an FT exclusive from the UK chief economist last night We'll also talk about ECB policy from an economist survey about what their Intentions could be for their bond buying program and then China ever grand have kind of survived to fight another day Somewhat kicking the can down the road having paid one of their bond coupons Overnight ahead of a 30-day grace period elapsing Which would have been on Saturday? So quick look at the markets this morning across the different asset classes So we had a positive close in the S&P about 0.3% flat in a dow the NASDAQ actually up 0.6 but just focusing on the the equity markets for a moment so from an S&P perspective just to have a look at this on a Daily time frame you can see here. This is looking on a multi month chart so This trend line commencing from around March of 2021 And that's been a really strong area of support on the general move higher that we've had in that Trend channel going up on the kind of the pursuit of these all-time highs each time We've gone up here in the S&P and the recovery that we've had This week has been really strong. I mean, this is kind of encapsulating Friday Really when we initiated the commencement of this rally at 43 65 type region and really we've just continued to push on you Can see here. We've now had Seven consecutive days of gains for the S&P 500s going all the way back here to the 13th And that's the longest willing streak we've had for the index since June of 2021 The S&P 500 ended the longest period without then a record close since November of 2020 Because again, it's been a very familiar occurrence, of course in a post pandemic environment So where we're at right now is quite interesting from a technical perspective perhaps then a degree of Some of that wind coming out the sail so to speak now that we've got that Horizontally technical error of support, excuse me resistance with that trend line as well Which has been well respected as a inflection if you like for price What was support now turn resistance as we saw back at the end of September and probably expecting without any further Catalyst that to act the same and where we are at the this moment in time One stock actually I was looking at that's kind of even more extreme And obviously had their earnings earlier this week was Tesla I'll quickly bring them into shot. I don't have any new news to bring you on Tesla But just just looking at the brief history of time of how 2021 has played out for the Electronic vehicle maker and it's been quite incredible. Actually the stock is up about 7% on the week it's up about 65% or so from the lows that were seen just a few months ago and Yeah, they posted record revenues and profits obviously just two days ago. We've had Bitcoin Continue to rally on the pricing in of the ETFs that have been launching this week and the stock price back up to test 900 right up there, which was that that previous high we had right beginning of the year So obviously Kathy Woods probably enjoying that not so much as she would have done in the past given a lot of exiting of that position But I'd like to be a fly on the wall in Michael Burry's office at the moment who obviously was Looking to short that firm which has seen a phenomenal bounce back of late Otherwise in terms of other asset classes, and then I'll have a quick move back to stocks to talk about those earnings we just had FX markets pretty quiet overall not really too much to mention there But we've just had gold break out on the upside a bit of added momentum here through the range break of Really what's been the the week cap that we saw tested yesterday in the overnight APAC sessions So just a bit of break out here in the gold price up about 12 bucks this morning Otherwise WTI crude still within a relative period of consolidation given the big run-up that we've had on the longer time frames and so That level up at around 83 16 has been a pretty good area of resistance over the last couple of sessions throughout the week On the downside any downward movement be looking around the 81 10 Handle s1 and the double bottom of the weekly lows at 87 is an area of support to see that range hold all things being equal at this moment in time Back to the equity market then I just quick look at the NASDAQ and this will lead us into some of those aftermarket earnings You as you can see here More much more pronounced in aftermarket trades So this would have been 9 p.m. Last night quite a dramatic sell-off here in the NASDAQ future And the rationale behind that was was was multiple and so one of the main things to start with was Snap now snapping itself is not particularly a big name, but just bear with me and check out the numbers So their Q3 adjusted at EPS was 17 cents all sounds good That was above consensus of 8 cents their revenues were 1.07 billion not so good And let's we're looking for 1.10 billion It was their outlook. They see Q4 adjusted EBITDA at a range of 135 million to a hundred and seventy five million The street was looking for 300 million the company then as you can see here revenues missing expectations after Apple's iPhone privacy changes disrupted its advertising business and Then the company also warned that global supply chain interruptions and labor shortages reduces the short-term appetite to generate additional custard demand through Advertising big problem for snap and other social media names to give you a bit of context their shares got Absolutely decimated in aftermarket trade. I think at one point they were down in excessive 25 percent at the close then they were down about 22 percent 22 percent that is in aftermarket trade that did reverberate out to other social media names Facebook were down about six percent Albeit then at the close they were down about four point four and Twitter shares were down as well about five percent As well and Twitter of course now going to have to tackle the the true social the new Trump media company that's going to be coming out as of course always Never too far from the action is our friend Donald's so Intel was the other company that definitely is worth mentioning as well. So Intel had their earnings aftermarket This is the world's largest chip maker, of course, and their shares were down about nine percent in aftermarket Their adjusted EPS was a beat 171 against 111, but their revenues missed 18.1 billion against 18.24 and for their outlook they see Q4 adjusts EPS at 90 cents The street was looking for a dollar and two Revenues they see broadly in line with expectations at 18.3 billion So a soft outlook then really weighing on their shares and consequently why the Nasdaq looks a Little bit different from the setup generally of what you're seeing in the S&P and other stock indices sticking with the the news UK rate debate kind of rages on and this came out last night as an FT exclusive UK inflation is likely to rise quote close to or even slightly above 5% earlier next year That's according to this chap here who if you don't recognize him. He is one of the new monetary policy committee members Hugh pill who's the chief economist who replaced Andy Haldane? He said the central bank would have a live Decision on whether to raise interest rates at its upcoming November meeting and you remember There's a lot of focus on that a lot of the big banks like GS for example are expecting the Bank of England to move rates higher Irrespective of not doing anything in normal sequence with their quantitative easing program as yet The markets aggressively priced that in in terms of the general disconnect We've had of a slightly less assured Sterling in the FX market compared to a rates market which seems intent on price skin aggressively rate hikes in the immediate future Coming from the BOE One thing I would always say when you see these types of headlines, which sounds pretty sensational in a hawkish manner Is don't forget to read the article It's easy to get duped obviously media companies you can throw FT in that bucket as well It's in their interest to generate clicks and interest and obviously taking out a sensational element from a speech is always going to provide that type of That ability and so when you actually read the article, it's worth noting that pill advised traders not to get too engrossed in the exact timing of any rate rise saying quote There may be a bit too much excitement in the focus on rates right now So if I was just to give you the headline you'd be thinking my goodness They're actually going to pull the trigger in November But then follow that up with some of the context of what he said and actually he could you could easily interpret that as the opposite He said these things might occur inflation might be a little bit more punchy and the November discussion certainly is live But don't get too obsessed about the exact timing and there's probably too much excitement going on Which you could consider saying the opposite as in look lower the bar of expectations here. You're getting a bit too A bit too aggressive on that pricing. So, yeah, that's the latest there as far as Sterling is concerned It's been not too much buy-in in either direction Both major pairs you read the lot up and even 10 pips at the moment with the Dixie Just softening a little bit during the overnight session and those Europe has come into the market But overall currency is pretty flat else brown ECB policy This is generally saying that on Bloomberg that the bank Will change its bond buying program before the pandemic purchases run out in March And this is according to a latest survey of economists polled by Bloomberg Policymakers will increase the pace of their standard tool next year. Remember, we have the asset purchase program APP and then on top of that bolted on over the last 18 months or so has been the PEP the pandemic emergency purchase program And it's that one that they're looking to end by March But to smooth things over do they need to ramp up a little bit the flexibility in size of the APP Just to smooth those are the the removal of that additional stimulus program That's essentially what they're talking about You can see that a little bit more clearly here of what that would look like then Which is their bond buying pace and the PEP being in red And so what economists are generally expecting is then you could see what had been a regular Purchase size of 20 billion in bonds every month might just perk up a little bit to around double that figure To smooth over the more dramatic collapse then of the support of which the european central bank has been providing markets going forward No policy shifts are expected generally at next week's governing council meeting again Don't forget. We've got several months still to run until we get the kind of conclusion of the PEP But this is typically as we know how monetary policy communication works. They're talking about it now So it's very much bedded in by the time we get closer to that event at the end of q1 of next year The other thing then is china China Evergrande lives to fight another day They've basically paid a bond coupon before this weekend's deadline according to people familiar with the matter the company wired Some 83.5 million dollars payment ahead of expiry of a 30-day grace period which was due on saturday Bit of context here Evergrande needs to pay interest on another four dollar notes This year ahead of then quite a hefty wall of maturing debt next year with some 7.4 Billion dollars coming during onshore and offshore bonds again the one they paid overnight was just a poultry 83 million So bigger challenges still yet to come And a lot of analysts what i've been reading this morning is they're kind of viewing this as somewhat just kicking the can Down the road for the somewhat inevitable. So their shares were up overnight Some slight reprieve was seen in in chinese equities not enough really to translate into anything meaningful though for the european open And as i said at this point in time With the us equities and the s&p hitting that record Seven consecutive days of gains the longer streak since the summer of 2021 Perhaps just a little bit of a break on that move Now as i showed you in the technical setup of the s&p. We've got to that pinnacle if you like So it wouldn't be a surprise to see a little bit of consolidation if not profit-taking going into the weekend If i'm quite honest Looking at the calendar for today Yeah busy morning and really this is a central focus for the day, which is the flash service manufacturing pmi numbers So 815 france 830 germany and then you got the us figures coming out at 245 Not forgetting of course the uk service pmi number at 930 as well So they're really the main calendar fixed events that you're looking out for analysts generally With germany and france being in the spotlight this morning Suggesting forecast that the blocks manufacturing activity Cooled to a nine month low amid ongoing supply related issues and the services sector growth further retreated from the 15 Year peak that was recorded in the summer in july So perhaps some slight moderation albeit all figures expected to be well above in expansionary territory for the time being Speaker wise there are a few you should be aware of And you've got feds daily voter speaking at three feds power partaking in a panel discussion on post-covid policy challenges as well an hour later at 4 p.m. London time bigger us earnings to be aware of amex and honeywell And then in europe you've got reno the car maker as well But that is it. So again, don't forget to check out the podcast that'll be coming out late morning london time Eddie and i are going to have a chat about a number of different highlights from the week So, you know, love to love to get some feedback on that and get you involved and otherwise. I will see you Um on monday. Have a great weekend. Take care