 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fangirl podcast network and number fire Com as we're talking player props for the 2020 NFL season Assuming it happens with JJ Zachary's and he is the editor-in-chief of number fire and fangirl breaking down his player projections Where he sees value right now at fangirl sportsbook. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power Rank comm Ed. How you doing today? I'm doing good. I'm doing well Excited to be on with you again, man. Yeah, I mean and it's it's weird to talk about 2020 NFL because Are we gonna have a season like I don't know it's so hard to tell how things are gonna break down, but like It's we're just in a weird weird weird time, man Yeah, and I think You know the true answer is that nobody knows nobody knows what's gonna happen You know some a lot of these projections say that we're gonna get at the peak of this thing within the next two weeks So and it's interesting because obviously like if the deaths he keep increasing and they keep piling up and Basically, everyone says that number is gonna keep increasing over the next two weeks So you're just gonna get these dire headlines But the reality is if we do get the peak of the thing in the next two weeks. We're probably in pretty decent shape Yeah, that's not to say that it's not gonna come back this fall or this winter or whenever that may happen But hopefully this country is in a better capacity to test and do other things So, you know from my perspective, I think there's just a ton of uncertainty around everything but I mean there's really nothing we can know with certainty and The people that should be the most honest about that are the ones that make the models. Yeah for how this is gonna go But you know, I mean, I kind of feel like we'll have some kind of NFL I don't know if we'll have 16 games. I think I'm more worried on the college level where you know For example, the University of Michigan has already canceled all on campus activities for the summer For the summer for the summer. Wow. I did not see that that is so Yeah, you know, and I think, you know, maybe that's pretty mature given the statement that I just previously said that no one knows anything and I think everyone inherently Under estimates the uncertainty and all of this But yeah, I guess I would say I'm a little more optimistic about NFL a little less about college And I mean, I mean the ramifications for college. I mean that I mean it might financially Yeah, that's to make college sports as we know it. Yeah And like obviously that's all secondary like we don't you feel like we don't need to say that like it's obviously all secondary But like that would like still suck Like it's obviously secondary to like lies and stuff like that But you know, it would still not be fun to not have college football on Saturdays and I'd like to avoid that situation I mean, I think, you know, I think University of Michigan will survive I think the power five conferences will survive, but I don't really know about athletic departments everywhere else, right? right and so Not only is college football gonna look a lot different, but you know, the NCAA tournament is potentially gonna look a lot different if Athletic departments are just closing down across the country, right because of the lack of football revenue. So Lot of ripple effects. So basically be smart. Let's get rid of this stuff now. So no to do it later It's it's definitely wild the name of the podcast is covering the spread Obviously, we know nothing though. Like it sounds like it's related to someone tweeted that at us actually like last week Like it sounds like it's a coronavirus podcast Covered is nothing to do with that You know first-time listeners aren't gonna know you are gonna think that this is a COVID Podcast and I thought that referenced to my somewhat long-winded story about my family and my experience with this whole thing But you know could be about the the title to I think it was the title I had not even thought about that until you mentioned it. So I had a friend who knows nothing about sports Message me like yo Is this like what is it because I don't think they pay attention to my Twitter feed Which they shouldn't no one should But I think they were confused about it too. So no we're just talking about betting But I understand why that be a little bit confusing. So hopefully hopefully we can get back to actual spreads soon We can have real sports to talk about soon so that the title can make more sense But we'll see, you know, we're getting there People are hopefully being smart about all this stuff We can get back to sports as soon as possible on a much brighter note We got JJ Zacharyson come up today JJ has been on this podcast twice and he has obliterated at both times because Back last summer he talked about how I thought Derek Henry and Nick Chubb were good bets to lead the league in rushing yardage They were first and second respectively For the Super Bowl we had him on talk about Pat Mahomes at 20 to 1 to score the first touchdown Pat Mahomes scored the first touchdown. So JJ has a He said a pretty high bar here at and it's a lot to live up to given those two previous episodes. Yeah But we're not JJ on to talk those player props here at Vandalsports book We're gonna go through his projections process again and talk about all that JJ Of course is the editor-in-chief of number fire and fandom will find him on Twitter at late round QB and check out the late round podcast as well Earlier here on covering the spread. We did have Danny Kelly on of the ringer He was previewing the NFL draft from a betting perspective the NFL draft later this month I'll be talking about the NFL draft during covering the future later today as well but do you want to hear a Danny had to say also Kevin Cole about free agency and A John Sheeran about horse racing make sure you check out covering the spread wherever you get your podcast apple podcast Spotify Stitcher the Google Play Store wherever you find it. You can find us To get those previous episodes today's podcast is brought to you by Fan Duel racing Fan Duel is doing its part to continue to bring sports fans Excitement by offering users the chance to bet on horse racing user existing fan Duel DFS login credentials to gain access Tutorials to learn more about the sport including Understanding how the odds work the various types of bets and most importantly how to win your bets watch all the races live across Over 300 tracks and fill the void left in your sports fandom today for more details visit Racing that fandal calm or download the fandal lab today eligibility Restrictions apply. Let's get JJ on the podcast now to break down his favorite player props Which have now been posted over a fandal sportsbook and see if you can keep this sterling record going Covering the present Let's bring JJ Zacharyson back into covering the spread JJ you set the bar pretty high for yourself So I don't know if you want a lower expectations somehow or something, but how you doing today? I'm good I'm ready for this to be my regression episode. Yes, exactly We deal a lot with regression usually it's not discussing the analysts though so we got to set the expectations realistically and Try to try to proceed as if you don't have the scorching hot record here on covering the spread We'll try to ignore that for least a bit and not put too much pressure on you But how things been going for you with all the wackiness throughout sports recently Yeah, I mean I too miss sports as much as you guys do for sure So I'm just trying to get through I'm just I'm really really really hoping that that things look good Once football season rolls around so I'm trying to think as optimistically as I can That's the hope because if we can get that I will be extremely happy But it's hard to know where we're gonna be in two days much less two weeks so in two months So we will see for sure now JJ last time we had you on I guess the first time we had you on actually last summer We went through your process for building projections and that was after the draft So we'll talk about the intricacies of making projection before the draft later on but for people who have may have missed that episode discussing your process What's the broad outline for you for building out projections for the NFL? Yeah So I think the best way to think of it is that I go with a top-down approach and what I mean by that is I'm looking at team level projections first and then from there Those are sort of the baseline numbers of what we're looking at team touchdowns Etc and then you're sort of divvying out how things will look So I'm building out the team level numbers like past a rush ratio plays run per game because obviously volume is a really big deal Whenever you're projecting things and then from there and in those those things I'm really looking at recent history doing regression analysis and I'm looking at coordinator data Those are the three probably big buckets that I'm looking at with the team level stuff But then once that team level once those team level numbers are sort of set You can then build out the individual players By assigning target share and rushing chair to get volume Then you're looking at sort of league-wide an individual player efficiency to get there per target numbers or per rush numbers Then you sort of just build it out from from there and then you know, I sort of separate quarterback from running back tight end and wide receiver just because I want the running back wide receiver and tight end numbers to Build up into the quarterback numbers. So, you know, there's a lot of projections and they're good projections But there's a lot of systems that don't necessarily, you know, basically the total passing yardage for a team that I have projected is What is going into? Those those three positions from a receiving perspective as opposed to doing that all individually So it's a top-down approach doing team level stuff and then digging into the individual players So JJ you mentioned that you look at the coordinators. How much have you found? Does that matter for the team level Numbers people will a lot of causality issues where you're you're saying that, you know There's a narrative a while ago that Kyle Shanahan feeds his ex receivers But when you really dig into the data, he had Andre Johnson for a while then he had Julio Jones for a while So so there's a reason why those guys were seeing all this volume It's because they're really good at football But there are some stuff that I think that the thing that you really should focus on more There's there's pretty decent correlation between by how these coordinators are running their offense from a pastor on split standpoint and Obviously pastor on splits can be influenced by game script So I look a lot at neutral game script ratios as opposed to overall ratios Some I'll talk about this a little bit later But Kevin Stafansi is a good example where you know, Minnesota ranked bottom three and an overall ratio last year and past a rush attempt ratio They were 23rd in neutral script ratio Stafansky, you know comes in at the end of the of Minnesota's 2018 season. They become more run heavy There's a lot of evidence that Kevin Stafansky Leans more run heavy than he does past heavy and I'm not saying that you know I'm going to go to the extreme and say Kevin Stafansky's the most run heavy coordinator in the league It's just that if you're comparing to what the Browns had last year Let's say you're probably gonna look at their projection and bump them down in terms of past a rush attempt ratio Absolutely Have you found anything like with pace on that end as well or is that something that wholly depends on like the team composition whereas a coordinator may not have a philosophy to go with like a faster pace and stuff like that Yeah, I mean there's some pace stuff involved. I would say that there are some coordinators I mean like obviously when Kelly was in the league There was a completely different beast than the way you typically see but I also think you know in the end the Delta the difference between let's say like a 90th percentile pace team to the 10th percentile pace team Isn't overly significant. It's significant, but it's significant at the end of the season But when you're projecting that, you know, you're gonna you're gonna really conform to sort of a median there So it's important and it's something that I'm looking at but I would say that the bigger idea is to look at The run the the past run splits and see how the offense is gonna kind of unfold that way And the good thing too is that past run splits do inform pace a lot of the way too So I think yeah, that's help account for that as well now we talked about overall projections But this is a bit of a different episode because we're recording this before the draft and you're building your projections before the draft Maybe trying to bet some player props before the draft too, but there's a lot of unknown For some teams like the chargers the patriots We have no idea who will be the quarterback for those teams and quarterback play is going to play a role in Influencing efficiency that influences a lot of things So how do you account for that when doing these projections when there are unknowns specifically at quarterback? Which is kind of a key position for projections. Yeah, I mean, it's tough You know, you have to have an open mind to variance some teams in some situations are just going to be easier to project than others I mean we have a very very large sample size of Julio Jones playing with Matt Ryan, right? We we generally know what Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are going to do this year as long as they're healthy But let's just you know, if you look at the chargers a lot's up in the air We know Generally how that target share is probably going to be split up regardless of who's at quarterback And I know it sounds like that's a broad generalization But you know, even if you're off on Keenan Allen's target share by two to four percentage points It's not the end of the world from a projection standpoint. I mean you can you can generally see how Things are gonna are gonna look. I do think that You have to be cognizant of the fact that uh, you know a new quarterback In and uh for the chargers not being philip rivers might influence the way that they target the running back position Let's say because historically, you know, philip rivers was targeting the running back at a very high rate Even when you adjust for that personnel Basically every single year the chargers that philip rivers has been with the chargers They've ranked in the top 14 in running back target share Which tells you that he probably has something to do with it despite the fact that the running backs were pretty good In that offense, um, but you know, I think that the one thing to always keep in mind is if you're building these Projections out and you're struggling a little bit with sort of defining that variance and seeing You know, what this what would the outcomes for a team like the chargers or a team like the patriots is going to look like Sportsbooks are too. They don't they don't know Uh, exactly how this is going to play out either and as long as you're doing your research You know, you can still beat those sportsbooks. Um by by having a sound process and looking at it objectively Excellent. Yeah. I mean obviously coreback is one position in flux with a couple of teams. Uh, I think every team is in flux in terms of, you know, they're going to get contributions from the nfl draft How do you factor that in? Yeah, so I think that the best way to sort of communicate how I how I uh Adjust for what's about to happen in the draft is just by going through an example Um, you know, if you look at the dolphins right now, the dolphins have a really bad running back depth chart You know, they have basically no one that can carry the load Ryan Fitzpatrick led that team in rushing yards last year. All of a sudden they have jordan howard who steps in And you know, if you if you were to project jordan howard with the current depth chart on that team Jordan howards numbers would look really really good, but you can look at jordan howard as a player You know, he's relatively replaceable. Uh, especially under, you know, given what his function is He's more of an early down back rather than a Pass catching back and he hasn't had a target share in an offense since his rookie year Where his target share was a little bit of above seven percent. So, uh, You're basically looking at a running back in jordan howard who's likely going to be more of an early down back Not going to catch a lot of passes. Um, and then the dolphins have a ton of draft equity as well So when you're when you're sort of divvying up the attempt share and the receiving share and the target share For these players and for a running back in particular, um, you're sort of going with the assumption implying probability And that the dolphins have holes at running back They have a lot of draft capital to spend and jordan howard historically has done x y and z as a player Um, and so when i'm projecting, I can't just say jordan howard is going to see 75 percent of the dolphins overall attempts and he's going to have this 15 Target share because there's no one else in that offense. I'm still looking at it And saying the dolphins are likely going to bring in a back and if they don't I can be wrong. That's fine I'm just playing probability here And i'm i'm doing that because I don't want to be overconfident or overstate a player's line before the nfl draft happens Right and it's especially true for when we're trying to bet these things because uh, you don't want to be overconfident in jordan howard Bet all this player promises as a result of that So it's a good situation to flesh out there and a good example to use but there also gonna be some surprises And I think that surprises are the key if we're talking about this from a betting perspective Trying to identify situations that are going to change in the nfl draft Are there any situations you're focusing on right now? Where the outlook will change and be very different after the draft than it is now and could provide us with some inefficient lines As far as player props go Yeah, the one thing to always keep in mind with anything anything sports related really is that we always think that we know More than we actually do a period I mean you look at last year with the chiefs in particular Everyone was saying they're going to use a high high round pick to get a running back And then they wait until the sixth round and they get darwin thompson, right? So always go into the draft with that in mind that you don't know how these teams are thinking exactly And then the other thing to always keep in mind Is that the biggest impact from a projection standpoint that a single player at a single position is going to make is at the running back position Like you can even look at trades that went down over the last month where or signings where we see melvin Gordon sign or get signed with the broncos that impacts philip linsey's projection dramatically Whereas you see de andre hopkins get traded to the to the cardinals Yes, it'll hurt the overall volume for larry Fitzgerald and christian kirk But that gets dispersed a lot more evenly than what we're going to see in a backfield with a running back So really what i'm looking at here in terms of things changing drastically pre and post draft is at the running back position And then if you want to look at current team depth charts and the amount of draft capital that these teams have To see if they're going to spend at the at that position and spend a high A high pick at the running back position you should you can go in that route But i think that what's more important in terms of betting and in terms of sort of Surveying the markets is seeing where there could be teams where The books are a little bit overconfident in who the starters are And a good example of that is atlanta. So todd girly goes to atlanta But it's only a one-year deal And todd girly has bad needs and there's a lot of there's a lot of variants with what's going on with Todd girly Right now to the point where it wouldn't be shocking if atlanta spends a second or third round pick a day two pick On someone like cam makers, let's say And if they do that then all of a sudden todd girly has real competition in that backfield to at least push him a little bit And maybe todd girly doesn't see as much volume as we initially think heading into the draft and then you know Buffalo is another example. Devin singletary had an amazing rookie season. He outperformed what i thought he was going to do And and devin singletary looks like he can be someone who it's going to be really effective Moving forward, but at the same time you look at their depth chart. They don't have anyone behind devin singletary So if they go and they draft a running back, there's just that added chance that that running back splits that backfield more than we Think and then on top of that, you know, you can sort of read the news read between the lines and see how teams might be thinking two of the Sort of dark horse teams at the running bag position that i've been talking about throughout the off season to spend a Higher-ish pick on a running back that have established running backs or so-called established running backs in their team are pittsburg and in detroit Pittsburgh though doesn't really have the draft capital to be able to spend on one So maybe they trade up or maybe they do spend their their rare early round pick on a running back But james connor's gonna be a free agent next year and and he's been injured and they might not trust him as much And then with carry on johnson You know if i were running the lions i would love to feed carry on johnson, but you know, he's been hurt his first two seasons We've seen them split that backfield with johnson and they don't really have that much depth behind him either So i'm really looking at these depth charts. I'm sort of reading between the lines. I'm kind of going from there Excellent Let's look at some of the quarterback props on fandal sportsbook. Uh, they're both Props for yardage touchdowns interceptions. Do any of these stand out to you as having value? Yes, so i have two At the quarterback position for for passing yards and the lines there I think the karson wence line is a little bit low. Uh, they have met 38 49 and a half He played a full 16 games last year Which is a big reason that he got over to that point last season But he also played with very very few good pass catchers You know, they should have healthier weapons this year over the course of his entire career And you can just look at this from a very basic math standpoint over the course of his entire career He's averaged 253 yards per game across 15 games So not even 16 games that gives you 50 yards short of of this mark He's basically at 3,800 yards with with his career yards per game average So if he does play a full season, he's basically a lock to get to this point But I understand that's a big if because in two of his four seasons He hasn't played a full year But but considering that he could still play 15 games and get to that mark That's why i'm kind of intrigued by by this karson wence line And I think that makes sense too to like try to find places where you have a little bit of wiggle room To do that. So uh, you said you said you had two. Was there another one set to you at quarterback? I do it might hurt you a little bit jim, but I think bakers I think bakers line is a little bit And it goes back to what I was talking about with with kevin stafanski earlier He became really really run or the vikings offense became really really run heavy when he took over in 2018 and then Last year which was his first year's offense coordinator minnesota ranked 23rd in the nfl and passed a rush attempt ratio and neutral game scripts They were third lowest in in overall Game scripts was just because they were a good football team So they were leading in games a little bit more, but if you look at what the browns are doing they're really building that offense similarly to how the vikings had that offense where you have Two good wide receivers. You got Jarvis Landry obj. They add austin hooper to have that that erv smith Kyle rudolf look with just better tight ends i would say And then they're they're beefing up the offensive line too With some free agency moves and then you have the the two-headed monster of kareem hunton nick chubb in the backfield And if you look at at bakers numbers last year I would agree that to anyone who was arguing that they played a really tough schedule that that bakers numbers weren't as bad As they probably looked, um, but i'm worried that you know given the stafansky hire The way that he generally wants to run an offense And the fact that you know baker was pretty careless with the football last year And we know how coaches generally look at that kind of thing I just think that they might be a little bit more balanced than we'd like to see for baker to hit that number Well, hopefully you've enjoyed jj here because it's clearly be his last time on covering the spread with the bakers slander That will never be allowed, but jack conklin very much more known for his run blocking than pass blocking So your your logic is sound, but we don't listen to logic when it comes to bakers. So, uh, Hopefully you had a good run. Um rather than we go to the running backs here at vandal sportsbook They don't offer just rushing yardage. They do total yardage. It's receiving plus Rushing at vandal sportsbook. How does that change things for you from a betting perspective knowing we have kind of two avenues For players to rack up yardage when it's the the rushing verb plus receiving rather than just the rushing here Yeah, when thinking about this, I think that you can make the argument that it rewards The better who's sort of putting in the work a little bit more just because there are two inputs instead of one But then I took a step back and it's not like when we're looking at game lines We're looking at other other props that we're not looking at multiple inputs begin with, you know We're looking at like I already talked about we're looking at coordinator tendencies We're looking at personnel, you know, there are a lot of things that go into a final answer So I think in the end because of that It probably doesn't change the way that I look at these bets all that much But you know, obviously if you get one of those things if one of those things are off in some way within your model Then it can really screw you but at the same time, you know, the books are having the same issue You know, if they're overstating or understating or running backs rushing or receiving total then that's something that you can also exploit Excellent, so finally let's talk about the wide receiver and tight end position There are a couple player props up right now on some of those totals anything that stands out to you Yeah, I've been wanting to rant about this for like a month now There's there's one that just is so clear to me is way too high and it's zack urch is receiving yards total It's at 9 924 and a half yards I know that I mentioned karson wendt says someone who who should hit is over in passing yards But again, zack urch is in his only weapon there and that's actually key over the last two years Erts has seen his target totals really skyrocket compared to the first five years of his career over from from year one through five He never topped 112 targets, but he's gotten 156 and 135 over his last two years So you see, you know a very large difference in overall targets and target share you can look at this target share Where are you seeing at least 22 of the eagles targets in both seasons? But the eagles over the last two years Have seen so many wide receiver injuries and just haven't had Many weapons for karson wendt's to throw to and we've seen this impact zack urch's target share very very directly two years ago when golden tape Join the eagles zack urch's overall target share dropped by three and a half percent When golden tape was playing a lot of snaps in that offense more than more than half the snaps zack urch's target share was below 20 And then last year without alshan jeffrey in the offense We saw a three and a half percent target share again difference for zack urch So we're looking at a scenario that three and a half percent is a pretty significant chunk In an offense and for a player So really, you know, you're looking at a scenario where we know factually That zack urch has been impacted by his teammates and by better teammates and better pass catchers And I think that alone, you know, if you have healthy pass catchers, it's going to impact zack urch in some way So I have urch right now with 116 targets this year That's 19 fewer than what he had in 2019 A lot of that has to do with the fact that i'm projecting a healthier squad And maybe they beef it up a little bit in the draft as well And and like I said, he's been influenced by competition He had nine nine hundred and sixteen yards on those targets last year in 15 games Which is actually lower than his current line of 924 and a half And then he's also only hit that total once in his entire career He's played a full season Once in the last five years as well. So we can't even assume that he's going to play a 16 game schedule Um, so I really, you know, and then the other thing too, you know, zack urch is older It's going to be 30 years in November 30 years old in november Dallas goddard is going to be another another year in the league and he's shown a lot of promise I just don't like this number at all I actually have zack urch yardage projection about a hundred yards lower than what this is And that's really interesting because like you assume that a lot of these props are going to be optimistic because I mean they're going to assume that they're or try to account for health and It seems like the zack urch one is assuming he plays all 16 games, which given the nfl and how violent to the sport it is it seems Pretty it seems pretty out there at least to to assume that he's going to play 16 games and Have the same type of volume he's had in the years past. Yeah, let alone zack urch who never plays 16 games Right, you know, like we're not even talking about someone who consistently has been on the field and hasn't missed time zack urch has missed time and it's a tight You know the tight end position in general is one that gets hurt at a pretty high rate too So, you know, I think it just all comes together and it just seems like a very very optimistic Line for someone like urch trying to get all the Philly betters to back the overs on zack urch I see it. I understand it for sure. That is jj zack a recent make sure you find all of his work on number fire dot com Also on twitter at late round qb and the late round podcast as well JJ want to thank you for swinging by and talking player props with us So hopefully this one goes just as well as a past to again We will never talk to you again because of the baker stuff. We do appreciate it regardless. Thank you Thanks guys Covering the future One final big thank you to jj zack a recent for swinging by and breaking down His player projection model and what he likes that the player props over at fan will sportsbook and ed I think that the zack urch one was super interesting just because like It's so hard to project injuries, but when you find one where there's an outlier like that It's pretty it's it seems like a rare situation But the injury stuff is is really interesting to me because it's so hard to predict how things are going to play out from that perspective Absolutely. Yeah, I mean really interested to know, you know Love to get john sheeran and pick his brain about injury modeling and stuff like that Whether How quantitative they're getting with it or whether they're you know making their best guess Which is what we have to do and letting the markets figure out where that number really should be you know because if if if If injuries weren't considered that well, you know, I mean it suggests Oh, maybe you could just bet under on a lot of these yeah every under and potentially be profitable Just because we know how widespread injuries are Obviously, that's not the smart thing to do you'd want to be I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that you know past injuries predict future injuries that you know It is a predictive statistic. I don't remember if that was baseball or or whatnot But I think maybe the next step of looking at these player prop level could be just you know A probability for injury or you know a distribution of games played for for every player And I'm sure analytics around that exists somewhere But I'm sure you know, you could input age past injuries stuff like that and potentially get in position as well And get data on that for sure, but I think it's also Injuries represent the big splits When using projections for fantasy versus using them for betting because For fantasy if zacher it's get hurt gets hurt you you can use a replacement level player in his spot In betting when you're betting on him specifically you don't get that replacement level thing So it also the injuries represent the big divide between fantasy and betting And I think that that's something to keep in mind like if you're trying to make the transition from fantasy football to You betting player props keep in mind That the you need to account for that when comparing your projections to What sportsbooks say because there is a really big divide and I think that it's important To keep that in mind. Let's move now into covering the future for today. Ed. What do you have on deck for today's covering the future? Yes, I wanted to talk about some calculations. I've done I took the wind totals at fandal sports book I took them on monday and then I backed out nfl rankings So these are my pre-draft rankings and they account for two things They account for the price for a team to go over and under their projected wind total because that obviously matters In how the market is viewing that team And then it also accounts for schedule You have to know who who you're playing in order to get To an expected rating and essentially what the number does is it kind of fiddles with the number the rating for all 32 teams until It gets something that minimizes an error In terms of the wind totals, so it'll know exactly how often given a rating, you know, like the new england patriots will go over nine wins so um So these are my pre these are my nfl pre-draft rankings and so the the results Each team has a rating and again, this is the same system where The difference in the rating of two teams would give you a projected point spread on a neutral site so The these current ratings say if kansas city played san francisco in the super bowl again, kansas city would be a 2.4 point favorite It's interesting, you know, you could actually use this to project what the spreads in week one should be Or at least the spreads that are consistent with the market wind totals We don't have the week one schedule yet Due to this whole actually that I don't think they usually come out by now. They usually come out around now So that was an interesting thing. We asked jj a lot about You know how he had to change things because it's pre-draft I had to change a bunch of things too in my code just because like I didn't have the week by week schedule Which is what my code from the past year Used I just I had to figure that I had to change that But the schedule is included because we know What teams are going to play what other teams, right? We don't know which games are going to be played overseas like in the london and mexico city games But but otherwise we're we're on to that So when you when you do the numbers, uh, you do get four primary super bowl conceders kansas city baltimore san francisco norleans There's quite a drop off to the rest of the nfl I don't think anyone's really going to disagree with those four teams all teams that have good quarterback situations Another team that has a good quarterback situation probably is tampa bay with the signing of tom brady But they are not in super bowl contention at least according to these these numbers. They end up 10th And that's actually even lower than tom brady's old team. So new england is at seventh That does seem to be quite a gap, but it's only really the teams are pretty bunched in there. So Um, you know, if new england played tampa bay in the super bowl, they would be about a half point favorite According to my metrics. Obviously, there's still a lot of things that we don't know about what's going to happen in new england I'm endlessly fascinated that jared stitum is minus 350 to be the starting quarterback week one Uh, that seems really really high to me But obviously there's a lot of things that could happen between now and then um, so If you look at the results, it it does kind of look like teams are getting ranked according to Number of wins and that's roughly the case But that's not always the case, right? So both miami and the new york giants Are projected to win six games But the market rankings like the giants better So there's two reasons again That I mentioned at the beginning of the show, you know The the giants are shaded to go over those six wins a little bit more than miami. Okay, so it's minus 115 For the giants versus minus 105 for miami and then um And then also it's the strength of schedule as well, right? So six wins is going to be more in the nfc east Where these numbers actually have philly and dallas both in the top six Compared to the afc east with new england down a little bit Buffalo the next team at ninth. So anyways, these are numbers That you can get if you sign up for my free email newsletter over at the power rank dot com Were there any teams that without giving away what's in the email newsletter? Were the teams that really surprised you with where they came out in your initial run at these things? Yeah, for sure. Uh jim. I'll tell you about whatever We don't need to be surprised on this show and we're in the trust free Yeah, you know indy at 15th Okay, uh, you know the markets didn't seem too impressed with uh bringing in filler rivers at quarterback I don't know if it's that or you know, I've never really liked the indy defense I think starting at the beginning of last year. I I just did not think that was a unit that could support a super bowl contender But they they are 15th Also, houston at 23rd seemed a little bit low to me You know, I think that there's probably a lot of the same pieces they had last year with obviously the the absence of With hopkins with them trading them away Still seems kind of low for a team that has won their division in the last two years To be kind of that far below I mean, I mean it's only a little bit more than a point below nfl average Maybe that's where they'll drop off to but that seemed you know, they seem like a ball of average nfl team You know like in the 10, you know eight to 12 range Uh, maybe a little bit lower without hopkins, but that seemed a little low Yeah, I think that's really interesting and I think that it reflects Because we're pulling from betting markets. It reflects the public's Uh skepticism around the way that bill o'brien has proceeded for sure And I think a lot of times that skepticism is warranted and it's there for a reason. So, um, that's really interesting for sure And also, I mean, you know, you want to take a guess at the worst team in the nfl Washington Yeah, actually jacksonville jacks. Okay, you know that makes sense. Uh, because I mean gardener minchew is fun I like watching gardener minchew. I like consuming gardener minchew content I am very skeptical if gardener minchew is a good nfl quarterback. So And the markets agree with you that makes sense. Yeah And then you think about the fact that, you know, how good their defense was two years ago Right that got them all the way the the afc championship game But now with no jail and ramsey and changes. Yeah, uh markets are really down on the jaguars And I think that's fully justified and I think they're a fascinating team with the draft too because like they could Maybe they do take a quarterback at nine. I think that's kind of the One of the bigger questions I have when I'm looking at the draft and they're kind of a wild card there So let's stick with the draft here and talk about my cover in the future because on fangirls sports book You can bet on what a couple of teams do in the draft and the team I think Is most interesting from that perspective is the jets because their plan is very clear And I like clarity when it comes to betting and I think that the jets are most likely going to draft Either an offensive lineman or a wide receiver because if you look at the individual players at fangirls sports book The seven most likely players for them to draft are all one of those two positions They are three receivers and four offensive linemen The problem with predicting the jets draft picked is that is that they pick 11? And we don't know who's going to be there, especially in what shapes them to be a pretty Unpredictable draft because the linemen are pretty tightly bunched and they're all part of one tier and it's hard to know Which of the wide receivers the jets prefer as they might have their pick of the litter at that position so It makes it tough to have a lot of confidence about betting the jets to draft any one individual player but you can also bet by position group and Both receiver and linemen are at plus money right now at fangirls sports book The jets taking a linemen is plus 110 and it's plus 115 on them taking a wide receiver And I think there is some value in both you could argue those numbers given that it seems unlikely that they go elsewhere, but I think it's interesting at least that you get plus money on both those because the jets Need to see what they have in sam darnold. It is year three Like we talked about danny kelly. He has looked a lot like genus winston and not in the positive sense There was first two years and it's hard to evaluate sam darnold with the supporting cast he has right now So I'm honestly okay Like if you have a strong lean towards wide receiver cool bet that but my preference is betting the jets draft alignment at Plus 110 there are a couple reasons for that The first one is I think tackle is a much bigger need for them right now than wide receiver They did sign a bunch of offensive linemen free agency, but most of those guys were interior players You know centers or guards Right now the starting tackles of the new york jets are george fans Who was a former sixth man for a seattle seahawks offensive line that was not great better than perception but not great And shuma adoga who was a believe a third round pick last year And started about eight games six on the right side Uh, I think it was or five on the right side three on the left didn't look great That's not what you want if you're trying to evaluate your quarterback At receiver, they've got jameson crowder brashad paraman Maybe quincy and uno if he's healthy and the cupboard's not stocked that receiver But it's not barren either The second reason is that you can address wide receiver in the second and the third rounds of this draft They have two third round picks the 48th overall pick in the second round ESPN's todmick shea has his tiers posted for Different positions and he had six offensive linemen in his first four tiers Which is pretty similar to the number of wide receivers But in the fifth tier which is where the jets would be dabbling with their second round pick There were zero tackles compared to three wide receivers So if they want a starting caliber left tackle and they should They need to do so in the first round whereas the urgency of wide receiver is a bit lower So I don't know which specific linemen they will take because that depends on who is there Essentially it depends on who is there But I think betting the jets to draft and offensive linemen in general at plus 110 Is pretty intriguing and I am on board with that and I want to ask you a more general question Let's say you are a team like the jets and you're trying to evaluate sam darnold Would you rather beef up the offensive line or rather go with a wide receiver in that scenario? If you're trying to build up your team to evaluate your quarterback Yeah, that's tough. I mean I would kind of tentatively say Wide receiver just because some of the work that the pff guys have done have shown that you know like sacrate is more of a Quarterback statistic than than necessarily an offensive line I mean clearly you want to have a good offensive line that's that's going to help as well So, I mean that's kind of my best analytics based answer Um But that's not necessarily the right answer. Sure, you know So, um, I thought your analysis was interesting I mean, what do you think about like betting both on an offensive linemen and a wide receiver and just hoping they don't take anything else Yeah, I thought about that. Um And I think that like it depends on what you're trying to get. Um, if you're trying to get a small profit because like Limits on you know betting these sets of things are pretty low So if you're trying to earn like 20 bucks cool But like I think if you want to go for more of a larger payoff I would skew towards just the offensive linemen But I think like if you can find a book that has higher caps and has a similar prop a similar prop available Then I'd be okay betting both I also like was thinking about just betting several of the offensive linemen individually and going that route because I think the odds of Tristan Werff's is there are pretty low Um, you could kind of weed him out or you know, try to work it that way But I it was something I at least considered. I guess I would phrase it that way. Sure But it's interesting. I think the jets are Are my favorite one to bet just because I have a very good read on like which way they're gonna go It's one of those two and that's really helpful, but it's still gonna be a pretty wild draft Let's finish up here with quarantine corner for this week. Ed. Uh, what are you doing to occupy yourself in these times where we're just kind of cooped up inside Yeah, I mean, I've been hanging out with my family. I've been reading some books Uh, I'm gonna I'm gonna throw out another book out here And this is pretty different from the ones that I mentioned before Uh ready player one, uh, is you know, not my favorite movie. Uh, but the book is really Really fantastic. I picked it up on my way to Costa Rica just because I wanted to have something to read By a year and a half ago And it was kind of I don't I don't even remember why I picked it up. Uh, I'm not particularly into 80s 80s pop culture or video games, which is essentially what the book is about There's there's a guy Wade Watts that he goes on this journey To uh to get this prize. Uh, so there's there's this big video game And uh, it's it's a virtual reality game that everyone hangs out in call the oasis And uh, the real world is a mess, uh, you know, like our own world and So everyone hangs out in the oasis, which is this virtual reality world And then, you know, the owner of the oasis dies and he he puts his Easter egg out there So whoever solves this puzzle, uh gets the prize. So that's that's the the basis of the story. Um, It's a great read. It's just it's just entertaining Just keeps you strong along the entire way nothing too deep Um, so just just something fun And uh, yeah, I would definitely recommend that for for anyone looking for a good quick fun read I think it's reassuring. You said you didn't like the movie because I saw like I got so many like targeted ads that movie and Oh, really it never I never felt a desire to watch it Um, so hearing that you didn't like it, uh, but still like the book a lot I think is encouraging there because the movie just they didn't look good at all. It was weird. Yeah I mean, I think visually the movie looked pretty cool But yeah, there's a lot of things that uh, the author had well There's a lot of things they had to do to make the movie, right? Yeah So it's interesting the ernaz claw and the author he Wrote the book because he was frustrated as a screenwriter He got his first movie made and hollywood changed everything and he was very frustrated with the final product So his he thought I'm gonna write a book because I have full control over the product Whatever I want. I can talk about all this 80s pop culture that I love and I can do Basically, whatever I want. And so it was a huge surprise to him when Steven Spielberg was like, hey, let's make this movie Because in order to make the movie now you got to change things and do things that look good on the screen Right and really like the best part of the book is you just can't do it on the screen. It just doesn't it just doesn't work right um I think it's beginning of part three. But um, yeah, I mean the book is you know, 98% better My 98% of the time better than the movie Uh, this is one of them Well, I think that discussion is interesting too because like uh, they're talking about with game of thrones How like georgia or marten like tried to make it so that it couldn't be adapted And then it got adapted and it was made to be like one of the The biggest tv shows of all time. So I think that's really interesting Yeah, I don't know. I I haven't seen the series or read the books But I think there's a lot of people that are just huge fans of the book And I think he has actually said like I love writing the book because I can just make these huge changes right with the stroke of a pen that uh television studio Would cost them like hundreds of millions of dollars to do And so that's why he likes to create a freedom of the written word. Yeah I've been reading the books for that I go through it very slowly because I read it when I'm on the exercise bike So like it's it's taken me a long time to get through them But um, I like them quite a bit My goal is to finish re or finish reading them for the first time before I rewatched the series And I did like the series the last season is whatever, you know I think most of the systems of it are correct But I think I want to get through them because the books are really good And I understand why people are drawn towards them What what's better? I don't know because it's tough because I think if you read the books first you have a lot of mental freedom to I guess draw things out in your mind And that's going to make the book be better than the movie almost always because like that's a better experience At least to me is to have that that freedom But here I did see the show first and I saw saw the entirety of the show before I read any of the book so I think with thrones though it's interesting because I don't know if I'd actually enjoy it as much as I am if I didn't know Like what the characters look like and stuff So it's it's a weird thing to me because like I think I actually enjoy the books more having seen the show But that's so counter to what I would have expected going in so it's weird It's hard to figure out and I think I like them both kind of equally as of right now I don't know if that's a cop out or not, but it's fun Yeah, I mean I I spent a lot of time thinking about you know how Visual versus written medium are affect people. I mean I'm a huge fan of books Not that I don't like watching movies or whatnot, but right I just I just like asking that question in general. Yeah Yeah, it's tough. It's it's a tough question, but I think it's I probably finish more of the books first, uh, but like I'm in the third one right now So like I've gotten far enough and I think that like I said I think my experience reading the books has been enhanced by Having watched the show which is very much the reverse of how it usually is for my quarantine corner I want to get a reality check here from ued because I don't know if this is weird that I do this, uh, but I purchased MLB the show which is a video game. Obviously, it's a baseball video game and You can play baseball on it. Obviously because it's a video game I have not played a single game on this video game Uh, even though But like you can play it and like they force you to play what is it downloading whatever I played that But since then I have not played a single game I like to sit there and manage the games and let them play out as they will because you can manage like at by or played appearance by played appearance for the major league team the triple a team and the double a team How do you franchise mode? I simulate every played appearance one by one and see how things play out because I enjoy Watching the development of the prospects I enjoy looking at the the statistics around it seeing how my beloved Byron buxton performs when I have no control over him And I like making the trades and things But I hate playing the game and I don't know if it's at least 60 dollars to buy this game Just to simulate things which I could ostensibly just do on my computer. I could do the exact same thing But I get a lot of enjoyment out of watching these simulated played appearance and seeing how things play out I don't know if that's weird or not though, but that that's how I've been doing things And it's weirdly addicting is this weird No, I mean i'm a sports analytics guy like that's not weird at all, right? I mean you're still you're still getting Uh, I mean you're getting the pleasure out of managing your team And then you don't want to actually play the game to go through every game. I mean you're just simulating them out so Right In part of the thought process is that I suck. I am terrible at this game because I have no timing Like my coordination of trying to swing at a pitch is just hideous So if I were to actually play as the twins, they would basically be the Orioles of This year's Orioles. I'd rather not condemn them to that Again, I want Byron western stats Yeah, exactly I want Byron stats to be as good as possible And that's not going to happen if I'm controlling him But it's it's fun and it like it fills my Like my brain needs some stats to look at and it fills that need Without having actual games going on it just I have to pay 60 bucks to do it, but to me it's a worthwhile trade-off Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know like in you know in these nfl rankings that I was talking about and covering the future You know, there's a simulation every iteration that the thing goes through, right? So very similar to what you're doing and like I get a kick out of seeing those final results and Comparing them with what we'll see. I mean, I mean, I know from the past that That these market rankings are are pretty predictive, you know, maybe not right now before the nfl draft But you know, you take these market wind totals and in early september And that's a you know, it's a very powerful predictor So I I think given what we talk about on the show given that I do football analytics Yeah, there's I think that's great. I mean that that's completely natural to me. I feel very validated So I hope you know that this has been a good conversation for me psychologically to know that I'm not some psychopath sitting out here Simulating these games. They've got like simulated dfs sports now like Baseball simulated baseball on fan duel. They're simulating the masters starting tomorrow With like happy gilmore in it So you can do that if you want so if you are also into simulation, but also want to potentially win some free money Because it's there's no entry fee. You just kind of do it for fun. You can check those out But for me, I got to get my fix via MLB the show and Byron Buxton That is all that we have for today here on the show and it sounds like you have a pretty fun podcast in the work over at the football analytics show though Yeah, I mean I had Benjamin Robinson on this past week he does grinding the mox. It was a website that I talked about on the show last week So definitely go check that out and then I mean personally to me the most exciting thing is these nfl Pre-draft rankings taking fan duels win totals Backing out a rating and a rank for every team You can get that by signing up for my free email newsletter over at the powerink.com Alrighty, uh the powerink.com and find ed on twitter at the powerink. I am at gymson is j i m S a n n e s you can follow the fan duel podcast network at fan duel podcast We have league of legends podcasts for this weekend already posted with myself brandon caduola and tom becchio I am not giving analysis because I am terrible. They are smart though. So listen to them We have a usc podcast coming up on monday as well the preview the pretty big slate they have posted for usc I think it's 249 coming up next weekend. So make sure you subscribe Uh and just check out all the the fan duel podcasts on the fan duel podcast network including jgzak reasons podcast The late round podcast. Thank you to jg once again for swinging by and talking player props follow jg on twitter At late round qb. Also a big thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for keeping us on the air here as always Thank you calvin. Thank you to everyone for tuning and hopefully all of you are seeing uh safe Healthy happy through all these weird tons and hopefully we can have some tangible sports to talk with you Once again soon. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network You