 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network If you are a long-time listener here of covering the spread or the solo shot, you know I'm I tend to be pretty conservative when it comes to Same-game parlays parlays in general because I like to have the ability to catch that individual ticket by itself But for Tuesday when we've got 30 teams in action I actually have a couple same game prize I like for tonight over a Fandall sportsbook for MLB action They are parlays that play well together where if one leg caches it increases the odds the other ones go through as well I think they do mesh pretty well. So we're gonna break down my favorite bets across MLB for this Tuesday outline where I see value whether it be money lines totals couple of strikeout props in there as well And two same game prize I like for tonight Fandall sportsbook that will talk through my Dinger Tuesday picks as well This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to break down Tuesday's MLB action over at Fandall sportsbook And let you know where I see value for today We'll dive into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts on yesterday's show We had Tom Vecchio on to break down the NBA play-in tournament So talked about tonight's games talked about Futures markets and much more that Tom likes if you want some thoughts on tonight's and NBA play-in games Check that out on the covering the spread podcast me tomorrow Connor Allen will join us talking NFL draft betting should be a fun show There as well so search for a covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating as well Dingers blasts moon shots whatever you want to call them everyone loves home runs with Fandall's Dinger Tuesdays You can love them even more. 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Hope is here for the gambling helpline MA org or calling under 32 750 50 or 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 877 hoping Y or text hoping Y in New York now before We talk about those two SGPs. I like first and I did want to give you my two favorite Dinger Tuesday bets over at Fandall Sportsbook in the spirit of Dinger Tuesday did go through those in the solo shop, but Don't want to make all of you listen to both podcasts in order to get your Dinger Tuesday thoughts for today So the first one as far as the first game of the night. It's gonna be the Phillies and the Rockies do like Alec Bohm short in a bit to plus 540 since we talked over on the solo shot Still okay with that You know some trepidation because boom hasn't the ball that well so far this year and not putting the ball in the air and not Making great contact But it has been getting a bit better of late facing lefty in Austin Gomber boom a much better power hitter against lefty as any is against righty, so I Will not go to boom against the righty unless it's a very generous number against the lefty I will 25 plant appearance against lefty is not a huge sample so far this year But in general very good against lefty, so I like bone plus 540 in this game It also does not hurt that for the Dinger Tuesday Recommendation you get bonus bets bet back based on the overall numbers of home runs hurt hitter in the game You see good JT realm Utah Bryce Harper Nick Casianus if we're wishing for unfortunate events in the world apparently You know, he's there too So there are other guys who can go deep in this game Even if the bowman's self does not go deep so helps her Dinger Tuesday there other one I like is on Kyle Tucker in the braze versus Astros game It's a pretty fun game on both sides Which again does help for the Dinger Tuesday thoughts Kyle Tucker right now at fan will sportsbook is four to one So still the same number as earlier on today Tucker hitting the ball really well so far this year It's expected Woba is sky high around 460 So he's hitting the ball well 15% barrel rate always has her power against righties and lefties too honestly Not the best part for home runs for lefties So it's about neutral despite what your don Alvarez does it is about neutral But again, you could benefit should Alvarez go deep as well They're facing when all the Lopez let's up a lot of fly balls Hunter Brown on the other side Let's up some some hard contact too. So Similar to the bone thoughts. I like both sides of this game I like the individual a lot of Kyle Tucker based on the way he's hitting the ball like the matchup against Lopez So if you want my two Dinger Tuesday bets for today Alec bone plus 540 and Kyle Tucker 4 to 1 over at Fandall sportsbook Let's talk about some same game parlays alike for tonight now And let's begin with a pretty fun game between the Yankees and the blue jays right now Fandall sportsbook The blue jays money line is plus 102 And that'll be the first leg of this same game parlay as they take on the Yankees here today I've actually got the yank the blue jays as the Tina would be favored at this game or played on a neutral park And it's actually in Toronto for tonight So bit of a bump there as well and then throwing you say kikuchi who has been really good over an Expandingly large sample For a while now 24 start sampling kikuchi throwing fewer curveball or with throwing more curveballs And he has a 3.5 to skill interactive era in that time with a 29 percent strikeout rate Kikuchi in the past that issues with walks and hard contact But those issues are not gone in the sample, but they're definitely a lot better than what they were before Kikuchi's had stretches before where his underlying data has been good But the results were not good, but that's not the case here His era is actually better than his skill interactive era. It sits at 3.4. Oh So he's had good outings for a long time It is tough to feel lefty against the Yankees But I think you kikuchi's got the stuff to get the job done here the blue jays facing Carlos Rodin Okay, start to the season so far with good results But walking a few too many guys not getting enough strikeouts and that does include a start against the Marlins We're a pretty soft matchup. So that might juice his numbers a bit too The Jays have a 117 at WRC plus against lefties on their current active roster since the start of last year Not hit it for a lot of power, but really good plate discipline numbers So they're the best value on the board for me So within the same game parley the first leg will be the Jays money line at plus one or two Don't mind if you want to go that by itself, but I think that is a key building block here Of the same game parley is like in the Jays money line at plus one or two I talked in that about how the Jays are pretty good with plate discipline And that plays into the second leg of this same game parley Which is going to be the under on rodin's strikeout prop under four and a half is plus 122 right now fandall sportsbook Again the thought process here walking a few too many guys not getting a ton of strikeouts right now And did benefit from that matchup with the marlins So rodin just not really seeing it right now him being the pitcher that he was previously And in the two the three starts so far for rodin has gone over four and a half strikeouts just once and that was in the matchup With the marlins over a larger sample rodin did have some spike starts towards the end of last year 10 strikeouts against the pirates He had nine against the red socks as well But I mean just overall hasn't been the same strikeout pitcher He was before all the injuries 22 strikeout right last year 19 percent this year 10.7 percent swinging strike rate So he hasn't been the same strikeout pitcher and he's facing a jays lineup that again has pretty good plate discipline So I feel like I might be a bit low here. I do have rodin strikeout projection at 4.28 Maybe that's pessimistic, but again, he's on the road tough matchup as far as strikeouts go It hasn't been getting strikeouts for a bit now If you pair the rodin under with the jays money line gets you to plus 262 one that same game Same game parley at fan dual sports books So they do know that again these bets are correlated because if rodin goes under that increases the odds of jays win this game So they know that these two bets are correlated, but still think that's a good value there So I'll take the jays money line plus 262 the rodin strike out under at four and a half And he put those two together or the jays money line plus one or two Against you the same game parley a plus 262 Over at fan dual sports probability the first one whether we like for today The second same game parley takes us out to the other new york team it's the pirates and the Mets and Again similar thought process here where the founding the foundation this bet is a money line That's a pirates money line. There are plus one of six Taking on the Mets for today I actually got the pirates a slight favorites in this game. Maybe that's a bit too much confidence in jara jones But like my goodness. This is Kai look good so far. It's a very small sample of three starts, but He's got a 2.25 skill interactive era 3.4. Oh Expected era so he's cooking and I expect regression there I do not have that as like the baseline expectation for jara jones within my numbers but Looking pretty good so far facing off of the Mets team That has a 95 WRC plus against righties on the current active roster since the start of last year Other side of this is hosty kintana kintana I think his strikeout props a bit high So I want to go with the under on that under five and has strikeouts for kintana is minus 118 and again Just not seeing a ton of strikeouts from kintana right now and he's facing off against the pirates They will strike out 24.3 strikeout rates on their current active roster since start of last year against lefties But again, kintana is not a big strikeout guys made three starts so far this year He's had four strikeouts in all three of those games granted one of those was against atlanta. So a very tough matchup But he does get to go home for today only one of those starts been at home But over a larger sample kintana just not really a big strikeout guy We have a 16 start sample on kintana since the start of last year and He has gone over four and a half strikeouts in just seven of those 16 games Or sorry over five and a strikeouts, which is number for tonight and just two of those 16 games So pretty lofty number The pirates will strike out and kintana is stretched out at this point So I understand it to an extent, but it does feel pretty lofty. So the Pirates money line a plus one of six pair of thinking kintana under is uh plus 216 a fan dual sportsbook But I actually think there's value in the over in this game as well Total is just seven and a half which is low for a reason again neither offense truly like that lights things up I do like jerry jones, but again not as high on kintana as I am on some As as the market seems to be so all these bets play together because they kind of play off the fact that kintana I think it's a bit overrated by the market right now That does drive why I like the over does drive like the under on a strikeout prop and does drive why I like The pirates money line So it's one assumption that goes into three separate bets and if you parlay those together It's four to one a fan dual sportsbook again They know that these bets are correlated So you are paying a tax, but I think they all make sense individually which is kind of what I want for a same game parlay and If one of them hits that increases the odds the other hits the others hit as well So pirates money line kintana under five and a half strikeouts and over seven half total runs That's four to one right now fan dual sportsbook. So those are the two singing parlies I am liking for this tuesday over at fan dual sportsbook Didn't have a couple other spots where I was seeing value wanted to touch on them here Before we closed up shop for today. Let's finish up with the third money line I like for tonight and that's on the red socks the red socks money line right now against the guardians is minus 110 I think that's a bit of a value with where things currently sit And it's it all stems from Garrett Whitlock and the question is has whitlock Figure things out because hasn't been able to stick in the rotation previously And it's a three-starred sample this year But look pretty good with a 1.26 era a 4.25 expected era And that's pretty good for a guy who's trying to stick in the rotation for a long time in the first time in his career But Whitlock has been a good pitcher in the bullpen So it shouldn't be a huge shock and there's been some tweaks to his repertoire this year He also had some bad luck last year if you look at his era, it was pretty high but That was much worse than what you would expect it based on his underlying numbers Now Whitlock is not getting a ton of whiffs and the guardians do not strike out So we're probably going to see a lot of balls in play but Whitlock's bad at ball numbers are pretty good so far this year So I think that Whitlock should be successful Facing off against Tanner Bybee. He has a 4.19 a skill interactive era last year 4.48 this year Let's have too much hard contact. So That's why I'm okay going to the red sox here. It does bother me to Target the red sox giving how bad their defense is I have been on this train before and it's not been fun In fact, I had to like tweak part of my model to account for how bad This defense is because defense does matter quite a bit So That makes me uncomfortable Not super jazzed about going at them again, but I do think there is value here So we'll take the red sox money line at minus 110 Final bet I like for tonight is a total that's in the Giants versus the Marlins game under eight and a half runs is minus 105 kind of surprise this number is where it is now I kind of get it because like the two starters here at Jordan Hicks and Ryan Weathers Hicks is a guy Who's been a reliever for a while trying to stick as a starter and Weathers is someone who Got beat up when he was starting last year So that's probably why this number is so high But I think it's a bit too big Hicks has been awesome in his three starts this year But in 3.74 skill interactive era, he's not walking guys Doing a good job of limiting hard contact now He gets to face the marlins We have a 91 wrc plus against righties with a 149 iso, which is not a great recipe for offense I don't know yet if Jordan Hicks will be able to make this stick for an entire season, but I'm intrigued. I will say that for sure. I'm at least intrigued by what Hicks has done so far I'm a bit more skeptical of Weathers because he has a 2.457 era, but his expected era is 6.19 He does get to pitch in Miami The Giants offense not going to blow you away against lefties are okay, but they're not going to blow you away So I this totally 8.26 runs under is minus 105 So I think there is value there So I will take the under on eight and a half runs for this marlins versus Giants game As my final bet of the day So recommendations for me across this Tuesday I like the Kyle Tucker home run prop 4 to 1 alec boom Plus 540 and then the bets from this show for today the marlins and Giants under eight and a half at minus 105 I like the red sox money line at minus 110 the same game parley of the pirates money line hosting kintana under five and a half strikeouts and The over seven half runs at minus 110 those parley together is four to one And then the other one was the rodan a strikeout under paired with the jays money line That one was in the 260 range. Let me check on the number on that once again for rodan and that one was Yeah, plus 262 for the rodan strikeout under and the jays money line for tonight That's all we got here for today on covering the spread as mentioned We are back with you once again tomorrow talking some nfl draft With connor allen should be a fun show as we get from the set for the draft just eight days From tomorrow to make sure you get that as it is posted Subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You want some more nlb thoughts for tonight talk some more strikeout props that's over on the solo shot You can find that by subscribing to the fan dual research podcast If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also follow fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you either bets across baseball We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down the nfl draft This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network