 We couldn't have MLB DFS back without the tilt of opening day DFS So hopefully we've gotten all the bad stuff out of our system and are ready to dig in once again to a five-game slate today Imagerly baseball not a robust ones kind of annoying, but I do think there are some good plays There's specifically one pitcher and one stack. I really like here for today We're gonna dive into those let you know what I'm seeing in my top place a crossfand will for today in MLB DFS Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Friday's five game Main slate with lock for 640 p.m. Eastern For today, let's dig in here to the slate overview for today take a look at what the weather is showing for us and I would expect the roost to be closed in Both Seattle and Houston today because of the weather. There is a chance of rain in both those spots So roost likely closed with both those Houston. It's about 80 degrees without the route or with the route without the roof So big core there as a result Seattle's actually super chilly So it's probably a good thing the roof is closed in terms of hitting for today cooler temperatures as well in San Diego For the Padres and the Rockies and then in Los Angeles for the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers So weirdly the West Coast cooler than the East Coast for today both those games in the mid 50s I would downgrade hitters in both spots, but Not to an extreme degree and I do still like batters in those game We'll talk about them in the stacking section for sure But slight downgrade from the baseline due to the weather there We'll dig in and talk about the top pitching options for today and also talk about stacks and more But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy Podcasts wherever you get your podcasts. 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So sour is a picture a bit lower for today You've got Robbie Ray at 99 landslint is 95 Dustin May fully backed out 93 Jesus Lizardo facing the Mets is 91 Maro Kelly is 9000 with David Peterson down at 8300 dollars now with just five games here We get an interesting dynamic where a lot of the the offenses on the slates are low strikeout teams Which can make things very difficult because we don't want to target those teams with our pitchers in DFS We want high strikeouts and a lot of them on both sides But I do feel pretty good about Christian Javier against the White Sox here This is a good matchup for a righty the White Sox have a 95 WRC plus against righties and a 132 iso They're not a big strikeout team But they also don't walk a whole lot which is good for Javier because he has struggled with some walks has struggled with flyballs And that might not be as big of an issue here as it typically is the rest of the profile for Javier is sick He leaned more on his slider down the stretch last year He had a 3.05 skill interactive ERA across his final 12 outings with a 32 percent strikeout Right both those numbers are the best marks of any pitcher on the slate in each guys most relevant sample Javier did that while letting up just a 32 percent hard hit rate Which also is best on the slate when you line that all up his ERA in that time was 1.79 I don't have a great read on pitch count here for Javier He did go 76 pitches in his second to last start He went five and two-thirds innings in his final one So I have Javier down for 90 pitches here, which seems pretty fair We add that all up it leads to a 6.66 projected strikeout number for Javier That is almost half a strikeout more than anybody else on the main slate based on my numbers so to me That makes Javier the no-brainer top option for today feel good about his talent feel good about his matchup at least the the power side of things for the White Sox and I think that things line up well here So Christian Javier is my number one pitcher for today in daily fantasy I'm gonna put Dustin May seconds There are higher strikeout guys on this slate than May But most of those higher strikeout guys are facing very low strikeout teams We'll discuss them and things to watch and May is two to an extent But I know he has stretched out He went 83 pitches in his final start in the spring, which is very good in terms of how long he was going So I've got May projected for 92, which is a very nice number. I don't mind the matchup here from May He's facing the Diamondbacks who have a 99 WRC plus against righties based on what their current active roster did last year They have a low fly ball rates. They have a low ISO so again, they're not a huge strikeout team, but That's not as big of a detriment on this slate as it typically would be May had some issues in his return from Tommy John last year He had a 4.5 0 ERA and 6 starts a 4.21 skill interactive ERA So those weren't great, but he still induced a lot of ground balls He got a lot of width so they 12.9 percent swing and strike rates So doesn't worry me too much that the results were not perfect there May pretty decent this spring too. So I think again, maybe seeing some signs what he did before Tommy John a couple years ago I have may projected for 6.1 strikeouts that ranks third on this slate when you combine that with his good ground ball rate Combine that with a matchup against a non-elite offense I think that's enough for me to rank Dustin May number two at pitcher for today Now there is a value play I like for today, but he comes with plenty of risks We talked about this hunter green yesterday where he can get to strikeouts But he might let up runs and green let up eight or had eight strikeouts But then got chased before four innings because he's led up a lot of runs So this is a very similar play to that is what I would say that guy's David Pearson I'm gonna put him third on this list and he's my top value for today at 83 He's facing the Marlins, which is a great matchup for a lefty this Marlins active roster 82 WRC plus against lefties last year a 121 ISO and a 23 percent strikeout rate I love all that in terms of what it does for the opposing pitcher the concerns I have here are all about Peterson himself He was in and out of the rotation last year. I did clinch the fifth spot notation during spring training But it wasn't great last year and he was tinkering trying to stabilize things trying to figure things out and Over his final 15 outings 13 of which were starts He cut back in a sinker and it was good because it did increase a strikeout rage to 31 percent Which ranks second on this slate among all starters But he also led up a 48 percent hard hit rate, which is the highest mark on this slate That's not a good thing to lead the slate in the walk rate for Peterson It was pretty high there as well and the locks were present this spring too, which is concerning for me I think the matchup does help him a lot in terms of facing a lower power team Not a team that's gonna kill a lot of lefties So I have Peterson projected for six point two strikeouts That is second on the slate behind Javier right in front of Dustin May and I'm fine buying into that So Peterson is extremely risky I want you to make sure you're aware of that going in knowing that this could go bust oh real fast But I do think that Peterson is worth it in tournaments for the strikeout upside So if you are okay taking on risk in DFS, which you have to be to play tournaments I think that Peterson does make a lot of sense and I prefer Both Javier and May even after considering salary over Peterson But I do think he is worth it here And also it's partly because Robbie Ray Haces Lazardo facing lower strikeout teams. We'll talk about them in things to watch But I think there is enough here to make David Peterson the number three arm on the slate as far as stacks go for today If Christian Javier is the no doubt about a top pitcher the no doubt about a top stack is the Seattle Mariners They're facing Hunter Gaddis tonight. I'm not sure how long Gaddis will go There is some potentially winds up back in the bullpen for Cleveland, but I think the Mariners should be able to get to him here Gaddis spent last year in double a and triple a ERA and double a was four point two four is ERA and triple a with three point six oh He did a very good strikeout numbers But he also walked more guys you like and you let up a lot of fly balls The ground ball right for Gaddis in both double a and triple a was under 30% Now we did see in the big leagues better data in the big leagues in the minor leagues and he made two starts there But the fly ball right there with 69% where they 56% hard hit rate So it's a very small sample I don't want to care too much about that But when you add it on to what happened in the minors with the very high fly ball right in the non elite results I Think we can stack against him We can be high on teams facing him until he gives us a reason to think otherwise It's also easy to love this roster for Seattle honestly They have a 177 ISO against righties and 113 WRC plus think they should hit for plenty of power So they are the obvious top option for me within that stack I think getting to Julio Rodriguez and very easy here because Again pitching salaries not super high salaries in general are pretty lax this time of year But the guy want to get to outside of Rodriguez and build around is Colton Wong Wong is $2,700 and there are two reasons why I like it first one is I Think he has underrated power against righties He had a 211 ISO versus righties last year But also 16 stolen bases and his steals are going to be up this year Which they were in the spring and they were an opening day Wong is going to be one of the guys who will benefit so Rodriguez the obvious top guy You could argue he is the best play on this slate. I would not push back on that I'd probably agree with you but Wong I think should be a staple as well Especially when you consider how low his salary is spot in the batting order had second down Rodriguez last night So Colton Wong a focal point for me in DFS for today So the Mariners top stack I'm gonna put the Padres second They're facing Kyle Freeland and Freeland had really good results outside of Coors Field last year He had a 3.08 ERA on the road. Very good stuff The underlying numbers not quite as flattering the most relevant sample for Freeland was his final 14 starts Where he threw fewer sinkers and interestingly throwing fewer sinkers Are throwing more thinkers I should say through more sinkers in those final 14 starts and Typically that improves your bad at ball numbers did not do so for Freeland He led up a 44% hard hit rate in that time with a 37% fly ball rates. His strikeout was right strikeout rate was low It was 19% that is the lowest on the slate by two percentage points So he led up a lot of balls in play. He led up decent contact and the Padres Pretty good against lefties despite being a very lefty heavy team. They have a 114 WRC plus in the current active roster with a 38% fly ball rate. So Freeland is not a guy I personally want to target often when he's on the road but When we've still got a solid slate for pitching it does become a bit tougher So I think we have the leeway to stack against him here despite the fact is not a perfect situation by any means Now the one downside with the Padres, which I did allude to is that they're pretty lefty heavy lineup I would expect for tonight's so You will have to be okay with lefty on lefty matchups to stack them even among the righties I'm not super itchy to use Nelson Cruz. Just a 134 ISO against lefties last year 29% fly ball rate. He's not gonna steal Probably not gonna get a lot of like Extra base hits outside of home runs. So I'm fine with going, you know, ignoring Cruz being lower on him Fine with going lefty on lefty But just kind of pair yourself mentally going in that you're gonna have to use Some left-handed batters against left-handed pitcher in the situation. So just, you know, make sure you're aware of that I'm fine with you know, so too obviously other guys against the lefty But just want to make you aware of that that There will be some lefties in your lefty-on-lefty situations in your Padres sacks for tonight I'm not super high on Nelson Cruz I think we can check out the Dodgers for the third stack, especially with salaries being pretty relaxed this time of year Dodgers facing Mero Kelly. We saw Kelly pitch in the WVC and he's generally a guy I respect I've at times dabbled with him as a pitcher as a value play in DFS But we saw Kelly make some changes down the stretch last year that I thought were kind of odd and I'm curious If he'll bring those changes over into 2023 Specifically look at the final seven starts for Kelly. He threw fewer sinkers and more cutters and It does lead to more strikeouts, which is a good thing But his bad at ball data was pretty rough He led up a 43% hard hit rate and a 43% fly ball right both of which are worse than the league average Now we could see Kelly reverse that because there's also pretty bad. So I would guess He's probably gonna look at that and say that didn't work Let's change something here But Kelly was never really a super high strikeout guy Not a guy with elite bad at ball data and it is a really tough situation you're facing the Dodgers with a 120 WRC Plus against righties a 178 ISO 40% fly ball rate. It's a very difficult spot for a pitcher to be in That makes me feel good about the Dodgers even if Kelly Does go back to his old ways I think the Dodgers deserve to be the number three stack for today behind the Mariners and the Padres on this Dodgers team in theory You want to favor lefties against Kelly in the past with the Dodgers that be very easy because they had a lot of lefties Not really the case Now as much as it used to be, you know, they've had some guys leave Seeger Ballinger's left And Lux getting hurt stuff like that. They've lost some lefties So I think only three guys are locks to be in there Freeman Muncie and Peralta as far as lefties Peralta is very good I would say if James Outman winds up playing once again. I can be intrigued He got the start in center last night. He had a great game. He had eighth But Outman great power in the minors. He stole bases down there did strike out a decent amount Which could be a concern here But I'm willing to use out many if he's lower in the order to get another leftie in this lineup Not a full lock that he plays because we could see Chris Taylor get in there But if Outman does play I think that he's a pretty decent option for DFS for today So focus on the lefties first, you know for the Dodgers consider Outman if he's down there but You know, it's not quite as lefty as heavy of a lineup as it used to be for the Dodgers Things to watch do want to touch on hey suits Lazardo and Robbie Ray briefly because they're both very good pitchers I love just really difficult spots for today Lazardo is facing the Mets just a 20% strikeout rate for them against lefties 117 WRC plus so that's tough Ray is facing the Guardians their WRC plus against lefties not as high as the Mets but The Guardians just an 18% strikeout rate against lefties So it's pretty tough to get jazzed about guys facing those matchups So I like both Ray and Lazardo and want to be on them eventually But not as into them for tonight due to the teams. They are facing. I don't think the Rockies are out of play for stacking They're just not a great offense They're facing Nick Martinez who was not terrible as a starter last year But he got moved to the bullpen for a reason last year his four skill interactive era was 4.27 before the demotion So the Rockies suck 87 WRC plus against righties if they were better I'd be probably a lot higher in them for stacking, but they're not so maybe this is more of a spot for one offs you can turn to if There's some individual guys you like in the Rockies. We want to go there Put them in there along with your stacks of the better offenses like that could work But you know, it's tougher to tough to get too high and I'm giving this the case now it's a 10 game slight or four five games say which means that there are Only 10 pitchers the one we have not discussed yet The only guy we've not discussed yet is Lance Lynn based in the Astros I can't use one of the pitcher due to the low strikeout rate of the opposing team low strikeout rate that he had compared to Guys like Javier and others last year. I would rather stack against him Not super itchy to do that either But it is warmer than it is for the Los Angeles and San Diego games in Houston with the roof closed great offense for the Astros obviously and I think that getting confirmation last night that your Don Alvarez is healthy Helped a lot. I was worried about hand injuries sat in the way power But when you get that home run looked pretty good look pretty healthy there So I think that does boost the Astros too. So I think the Astros were in play for stacking But I very much prefer the other three stacks we discussed in the Mariners Padres and Dodgers being the ideal plays for tonight Let's finish up with some dinger calls here And typically what I want to do is I want to give you a boring one and a fun one from different teams Kind of giving you a mindset of okay. I'm looking at these teams as being the spots eternity for home run calls But I just want to go in all in on the Mariners given their matchup here with Gattis I think that given the fly ball rates that he allows given the hard contact allowed in a small sample last year It makes sense. So the boring one is as boring as can be Julia Rodriguez very good We'll go with him bold call. I know the fun one. I will go cold to long I think that he is a bit underrated in terms of his power against righties So we'll take advantage of that tonight, you know dive fully in and go Colton Wong So home run calls for today Julia Rodriguez and Colton long For the Mariners on our dinger calls That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop But a full slate of sweets or it's full Sweet of slates coming up next week nailed it first time no issues That's coming up next week. We'll be back with you every weekday Monday through Friday Breaking down that day's main slate for daily fantasy baseball So make sure to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating because that does help us out a bunch If you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups for tonight's and having fantastic weekends We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been a heat check for the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network