 Good very good. So so we have other najam up on the screen and What we have so far this morning is sort of a very nice tour of the landscape from a professor Pramachalani a very nice tour of the landscape from a professor Pramachalani We might need you to mute your computer for a second at them if you would Okay, I'm going to skip the whole introduction part and just hand it straight over to Adi the najam Who's going to try and take us into a discussion of how we move forward Hear me now. Can someone give me an indication maybe on the message? I have turned my Livestream off Can people hear me there? Very good. Excellent. Thank you very much for having me. It is a great pleasure to be with you And this is an organization that I have The highest and utmost respect for and I think the topic that you have chosen for today and Talking about in the South Asian context is about as timely As it possibly can be I Really do wish that I was there Myself with you to be there live with you and unfortunately That was not possible, but luckily While we still live in the world of borders Technology is one of the things that helps us break those borders. So very much in the theme I am very glad that technology has come to our assistance I want to use my few minutes to essentially make three points I'm usually a powerpoint or a slide person, but luckily By not being there. I'm I'm I will resist the temptation to put those and I'll make three big points people before me Both the speakers have made excellent points on both the larger end and The practical end of doing something about climate change, but I want to make three points, which I think are central central to The future of South Asia as it relates to climate change and they are central to the work of MSF They are central to the type of work that doctors without borders does and really central to the type of work that I think many people in this room do So they're three parts the first of the points that I want to make is a Very clear sense has to really emerge that we are now as of today As of May 27th and before that now living in the age of adaptation Now this may seem a trivial matter, but it's not because frankly I think the culprit here are people who work on climate change and many of us Unfortunately are still talking about as if the age of adaptation is something in the future No, it is not the age of adaptation is here. It is here today It is happening now. What does that mean? What that means is that we have generally in the past talked about climate change as if it was something that would happen in the future because we were living in the age of mitigation and You all know the difference between mitigation and adaptation But the central premise of the old age was that if we are wise enough if we do something about climate change We will somehow be able to avoid climate change or minimize climate change That is no longer true because of the callousness of our species because of the consumptive sins Not just of the rich countries, but of rich people you and me In developing countries, we are now living in a place where we have condemned not just future but current generations To live in the age of adaptation, which means that we will have to adapt to climate change Now, of course that doesn't mean that mitigation has evaporated that doesn't mean mitigation is no longer important mitigation is very important But simply because if we don't mitigate the amount of adaptation needed will be even more So yes mitigation is important to reduce future impact But now we are condemned to live with impact now This has very serious Serious implications that I will come to but let me give you a very very simple Simple example with two facts before I go to my second point and the first of this is that Mr. Donald Trump? Aside and and and other skeptics aside this myth and this lie that we need to do more science For climate change because we need to know more about it before we act is absolute nonsense Yes, we need to do more science to figure out how to do it better. Yes We need to do more science how to find better solutions. Yes We need to do more science because more science is always good But no we do not need to do more science simply to find out whether this is real or not Here is my artifact, which I would have put up on the screen if I had the ability But let me give you the numbers between 1991 and 2012 note these numbers carefully 1991 to 2012 13,950 13,950 scholarly papers were written in peer-reviewed journals on climate change 13,950 and of those 13,950 papers only 24 in Any way rejected the idea of climate change? Please tell me what other scientific concept has greater scientific unanimity Then 13,950 papers only 24 of which question the idea in any matter So let us put that whole nonsense aside The second important point is that tells us that we are living in the age of climate impact We are living in the age of adaptation is that if any one of you in this room is 32 years of younger I can't see you but I would still like you to raise your hands if you are 32 years or younger If you are 32 years or younger You have never in your life Never in your entire life. You have never ever witnessed a year That was cooler than average And my Instinct tells me you're not going to do that in a fairly long time That is the extent of the reality of climate change. So this is not something in the future This is something that is probably already impacting your work. Whether you recognize it or not Certainly it is impacting the world work of doctors without water. So that is point one point two is in the age of adaptation the in the age of climate impacts the key metric of how we talk about climate change changes in The old age of mitigation which hasn't ended that's still continuing as I said But now we are in this in this new formulation of adaptation being added to it as long as we were talking only about Mitigation the way to talk about climate change was essentially to talk about car Because mitigation was really about carbon management. That is all it was about how to manage Carbon so that we can we can we can reduce Future impacts and that is all that was to it as long as we were talking carbon. We were really only talking energy Because that was the primary culprit Therefore the entire focus of the climate debate was on carbon management Therefore the entire focus of the climate debate was on energy management That is why you hear about Tesla's and you hear about cars and you hear about renewable energy and you hear about oil prices All of that is important. However however The real focus of climate change in the age of adaptation has moved in the periodic table. It has moved from carbon To hydrogen and oxygen and what I mean by that is that we are now living in a place and a time Where we are and will be defining climate change mostly mostly through the lens of water Climate is no longer only carbon defined Climate is going to be more and more defined by issues of water and that is where I think it will hit your real lives as Individuals and as professionals in the humanitarian and development fields What do I mean? Think about think for a moment about the major impacts of climate change Particularly in South Asia, whether it is Pakistan whether it's India whether it is Nepal whether it's the town whether it is Bangladesh Whether it is Sri Lanka But anywhere in the world whether it is Africa Think about war-torn areas and think about where does climate change actually impact the lives of people and I bet you that most of the answer you will find will no longer be about carbon They will be about water Think about this. So what is climate impact? What are the most likely climate impacts? They are about water melting glaciers They are about water disappearing Drought They are about water rising sea level rise They are about water falling from the sky like no one's business extreme events So climate where it meets real people in real impacts really turns into issues of water And that I think is where in your practice world Climate starts impacting how we live what we do How we do it my country Pakistan for example has now been for nearly eight years in a constant state of floods and A constant state of drought and a constant state of heat waves Now no one is suggesting this is simply because of climate change That's not how the fingerprint on the trigger works. What climate does is it exacerbates Regular processes, but then Creates a new normal and I believe all across South South Asia There is a new normal that is water defined that is sometimes water scarcity defined that is very often Water intensity defined, but that is everywhere Exacerbated by the forces of climate climate change and is everywhere showing itself in the lives of real people In the form of water. So that is the thing to take care of finally and I hope I'm not not not overstepping my time here finally my last point and This is is is a sad point, but it is a real point It is a point that MSF knows very well the poor shall pay the poor always do That's unfair, but that's the world we live in that's the world we need to change But I don't think we're going to change it very soon. So let's at least realize the reality That here is an issue that is exacerbated by the equity issue is very very important It is exacerbated not just by rich country poor country, but by rich people poor people by this by this great Differential not just in consumption, but in the footprint That you and I leave on planet Earth Which is far more dangerous and which has real impact on the lives of the poorest people who do not Leave that footprint and and whose life is going to be impacted here is here is what I mean by it climate Eventually is a development issue and this is the real big problem with I think climate how it is discussed at least where I am right now In in in in developed countries climate is still seen only as an environmental issue as a as a as a as a as a as a planet and cute and cuddly issue and we need to humanize The impacts of climate change what it means to ordinary people not just to polar bears I've got nothing against polar bears. I love them But we have to humanize the real pain and the real misery and most importantly the real insecurity That climate change causes we have to talk about climate change in the language of insecurity We have to talk about climate change in the language of vulnerability We have to talk about climate change in the language of poverty And we really have to talk about climate change as an issue of justice of Development justice around the world Let me give you one one example as I end and I was I was warned that I should be very neutral in what I say not bring politics So let me say I am not trying to bring politics I am professor of international affairs and and that's my lens But but this is really not a political issue. So bear with me for just a minute Some years ago. I wrote a book along with colleague that you did a book called human security Environment and development in South Asia This was about all of South Asia. We had about eight authors from all the countries in South Asia and In one of my favorite favorite numbers harrowing numbers that comes out of it Is is is is is is the following? And and it is about water And and it is it is the following at that point. It was 60 years of Constant conflict between India and Pakistan again. I'm not making a political point here 60 years of constant conflict between India and Pakistan not one more two or three wars Just up and down various levels of conflict in the 60 years of conflict between India and Pakistan total number of Indians total number of Indians killed by the Pakistan side in 60 years is less than Listen carefully total number of Indians killed by the Pakistan side in 60 years is less than the number of children only Who will die in New Delhi only where you said today in one year only because of dirty water only The exact same number is true on the Pakistan side for Karachi That I think is the reality of what climate change is about when it meets impact when it's to meet water I'm not suggesting those people died those children died because of climate change But I'm what I'm suggesting is that climate change exacerbates Development and human insecurity issues like the one that I'm talking about why does this make me Why does this make my blood boil at 4 a.m. Where I am now? Why am I getting excited at 4 a.m. In the morning talking to you about this here is why if You are the mother of one of those children who die whether they die in New Delhi or whether they die in Karachi because of dirty water You do not care Whether your child dies at the wrong end of a gun or a wrong end of a tap Your child is no less dead in one case than the other and yet we as scholars We as journalists we as policy makers talk about one death as if it is a national calamity and the other death As if it is a development statistic please Go and explain that to the mother of that child Here is why I get excited about it as a policy practitioner as a policy scholar as as as as as a professor Here is what I know. I have taught international affairs now for more than quarter of a century. I have no idea What I can do about that guy. I Know exactly what I can do about that tap eight dollars and 80 cents is The cost of saving one life because of dirty water and the cost is just about the same whether it is in New Delhi or in Karachi and That I think is the real tragedy of climate change that until we bring it from just being about carbon management Until we turn it from something about carbon management to something about human security to human well-being To development justice. We shall not be doing justice to the issue of climate change. Thank you very much Wonderful. Thank you very very much Professor Najam, I hope you can hear us. Maybe you can just nod if you can hear us Can you hear us yes You can can okay, can you nod if you can? Okay, please nod if you can hear us All right, so we will now Move into question and answers. I'm not sure if you heard me earlier, but thank you very very much for that extremely Erulite but also quite moving moving talk. I'm motivating so that so can we now can I invite Joe? It's not back up on the panel and Let's take a few questions a few comments If people would like to react to either of these talks or indeed to anything professor Chilani said the floor is open Yes, please first and second back then So I come from the health movement of a very simple question to ask you Do you think the health movement takes climate change very seriously? Okay, we'll gather a few questions because the back and forth but the time like becomes becomes hard Yes, please I Think there have been studies about how climate change has exacerbated the war in Syria or Yemen or places like this and Are we going to see more of this in the future and since we're talking about Asia? Maybe Some ideas about how what's happening with the climate can affect Asia from that point of view Okay, so the effects of climate change on in a sense traditional Military security kinds of issues and internal unrest issues I'd like to take a couple more because there's over there's a time like before we go back to our If it's been particularly if we go back to professor naja. Who am I missing? Oh, please There's a microphone coming to you This question for professor Nader. How would you place food security in the realm of? Climate change we serve as water Good security came One over here, please I'm uncle My question is I get that we understand what climate change does to us as human beings So I get that we know enough what it does to us Do we know enough what to do to mitigate or adapt? Okay, and I think that's probably enough for a first round of questions. Let me let me also just pose one to to Jyotsana Puri Which is to say that You gave us very convincing evidence of the the need for more careful and clear Evaluation studies understanding better what the How much we actually do know about how effective our interventions are but in a sense is a similar question To the one for professor Chalani. Is that the constraint on action or do we already know enough to act? reasonably well in at least a subset of cases so Maybe we'll just do this in reverse order turn to professor naja I'm first and then come back to you if that's okay Joe so over to you Not it Adil if you could just text him as well. Thank you very much. I I did hear the questions I've just muted it. So I hope you can hear me if I can just get a signal that you can I will I will not try to answer all the questions They are extremely Extremely good very good questions. They're excellent questions and and you realize that when someone says they're excellent questions What they really mean is that that that I have no idea how to answer that? That's why they have good questions But here is here is a few thoughts First on this this excellent question that was all paused does health take climate change seriously? I will I will leave that to you You are the health professionals, but let me honestly say to you what I do know I do not think that the climate change people take health seriously. I Really don't and then this is my sort of This is my my my jihad if you will In in climate change circles itself trying to get climate people to take development seriously because I think we have Carbonized the issue too much as I pointed out This is going to be a major issue. One of the things I didn't talk about But the neglect is major because I think amongst the biggest things that will hit the climate community is a Vector disease vectors and we are seeing this with epidemics whether it is dengue and so on so forth again I'm not suggesting the link between climate and these is Direct, but I think the scientific evidence is that that is probably one of the biggest things that will hit Beyond natural disaster that will make those dots connect and I don't think the climate community is ready for it That's my thought the second point is about wars and you are exactly right. There's been excellent research Certainly in Rwanda less so in Syria Which suggests that particularly in Africa some of the recent conflicts that we have seen have had climatic causality That doesn't mean the causality is linear What that means is that in many of these situations there is a natural resource push That comes before the conflict and what you start seeing is that you know Water disappears in my area. I start moving into your territory You are nice to me and you say sure come and take take take a drink Then I just stay there and very soon you find that you and I have ages centuries of dispute So climate becomes a major exacerbating factor In conflict and we have seen this in Africa within our region I think we have seen it more around the Afghanistan-Pakistan border We all talk about extremism and we all talk about the religious aspect But there's a natural resource aspect and you can look at at the spatial maps Of what has happened to vegetation in these nomadic tribes Of nomadic people with very little vegetation in the first place when you have large movements of people of refugees That puts a pressure on natural resources And that natural resource pressure then translates into Into into conflict a final thought on that about food security And and water wars water wars wasn't mentioned But when we talk certainly india pakistan, that's that's one of the thoughts that comes first on food security You're exactly right food once you talk water. You're really talking food Particularly in south asian, you know in in some ways. I think of what is food except Nature's way of packaging water Right water is the most important ingredient in what we call food in our region Nature just takes water packages it as meat sometimes and as as fruit other times and so on so forth so that we can Transport it but water and food are very very critically related my own research in pakistan suggests Both the good and the bad news the bad news is that we did a study of climate impact on On wheat and rice in southern panjab and upper synth in pakistan And what we found was that with current climatic trends the Productivity could go down by up to 15 1 5 that is huge For a country whose whose economics is really dependent on on these crops However, on the other side we found that even with the very little good adaptation Inputs that yield could come up Not just not just not just stay there, but come up By up to 12 percent From what it is now So there is a benefit just like there is a benefit in the energy transition There could be a benefit in better agricultural and food practices because of adaptation Water wars and last point on this and sorry for taking time the same book that I had mentioned In that book we had a final chapter which we all co-wrote and we had five conclusions about south asia and human security Only one of them was unanimous. These are south asians. We never agree. We are argumentative So off the five only one was unanimous. You wouldn't guess what that is But let me tell you the unanimous conclusion was india and pakistan will not go to war over water Why because we've got so many other things to fight about first But also why because water is too important. That doesn't mean water doesn't doesn't become conflict It becomes conflict very often at local levels It becomes conflict at the village level in in both india and pakistan Wherever water is so yes water is a source of conflict, but historically it has not been a source of national war My colleague Aaron wolf from the university of colorado suggests that the last real water war was pre-biblical But the reason for that is that water is so important to people So important to people that they have to find some way to coexist over it Even in israel palestine the only agreement that continues to work is the one about ground water