 Hi everyone and welcome to the update, end of day for CNBC Markets, my friends over the pond. You'll notice I have no camera on because it's just hard enough to even listen to me let alone look at me while I am recovering from a flu. Yes, went away, had a great time, came back sick. How is that for typical? But the markets are doing really well so we're going to take a look at some of the futures markets. Obviously gold, you're looking at right here, oil, natural gas, back in the conversation, S&P futures and we'll end with a look at the British pound and against the dollar, although I do also want to keep up with you on those soybeans that I started before I went away. So looking at the gold chart I don't see anything other than the typical what we've been talking about, which is when it starts to look terrible, it's a time to buy, when it starts to look great, it's been a time to sell until that changes, there you go. I thought the last time we got through 2,000 we would fly, well it did kind of fly because if when we, before I left when we got over that 2,000 level, look where we wound up. We wound up all the way up to 2,120. Look at how close that came to the all-time high on this day right here. So that was quite amazing. That high right here was at 2,129 and the high right here was it, whoops that's not on there all done, 2,130. So you could, people were screaming double top, major resistance, but this is gold and it's going to lay in the way. So right now where did it go? Went down to 1980. We talked about the fact that if it broke 2,080 would be a great support zone obviously under that 1940. But what's happening right now is this was kind of an interesting day. You know we had the Fed meeting last week and at first everybody got a little bit negative and then of course realized that with pal talking dovish. This is bullish for gold and most likely recessionary is really what he's fearing for 2024. So we had a big spike down and then we had this little teeny candle here opening up much higher the next day. And now a bearish engulfing pattern followed by an inside day, which kind of makes the signals really clear here in terms of the bias. I would probably say at this point, and this by the way is spot gold December contract, as long as we hold above 2030 you have to have a positive bias below 2020 maybe we're going to go back down and test that upward sloping 50 and lower again. But assuming we hold above this 2030 considering everything that's going on in the Middle East, I would be looking at that to then move up, take out once again this level right here which is at about 2050 and then of course our next resistance will be up here at around 2075 up to 2080. Could we work around and not do much? Well December is typically very bullish for gold, was certainly last year. If we went back and take a look see kind of move we had in December last year and when did it happen. Really it sort of was kind of like a whole month thing and it was really into the end of the month and as we started January, but it's finally sold off that we had this huge move up and we're at higher levels now. Would I be looking for any kind of major correction at this point? Of course anything's possible but at this point now as I said I think that after this wash year and a lot of negative sentiment, people thinking about deflation, I just think that they're wrong. And here's another example of buying it when it looks terrible and selling it when it looks great. Of course we have a lot of news out with crude oil and the disruptions are within the Red Sea but this hasn't really had nearly the rally that one would think if the news was that bad in terms of supply chain and disruption of delivery mostly because we're seeing a surplus of actual supply in other areas with the U.S. emerging as great exporters but there could be a few things that will emerge fundamentally. Of course we'll see it in the chart. I think the most interesting thing about this chart right now is this declining 50-day moving average with a declining slope. So clearly at this point we can say that the January contract is in a downtrend and what will reverse that trend would be two closes over this 50-day moving average and some type of neutralization of the slope because it's one thing to just clear it's another thing to really show improving momentum. However once again we talked about $68 a barrel you're going to get natural support there as the U.S. needs to fill reserves every time it gets below 70 so it was no surprise it stopped there plus all the support that we've had here from March and then again in May. So the question is what happens from here and this is where I love to look at this 50-day moving average right now and all of the congestion around it. So you can see that anywhere between 7380 really and 7420 that's really kind of be your neutral zone. So between 73 and 7420 I'd like to see something happen above 7420. I definitely think that we can see the market go higher. Obviously the next resistance would be closer to 75, 78, 79 and clearly 80 is going to be your biggest area to get through. Below this 7380 number we were just talking about then I think that you know considering we closed lower than that here today we would really be looking to see what happens at the next point of support congestion which would be at around 7155. So at this point right now again four days before holidays lots of people probably starting to get away and stop trading closing up books or whatever. I think that we will see more upside if this is following the state of the late 70s when oil sold off after the embargo thinking everybody was going into a recession and that the commodity supercycle was over of course then you know it came back with a raw later on in 79. We could be following the same path which means maybe it doesn't happen in December or January even but we're still looking at it about March when things could heat up as many many of the problems that we're having have yet to be solved. So now we're looking at natural gas and you would think with all the news that came out about the Red Sea and frigid temperatures expected here in the U.S. with winter upon us that this would have made a much bigger move. But alas not really not all that impressive. The most impressive thing we can say is we've had yet another potential reversal bottom it's certainly possible in which case where would we be continuing to look from the upside? Well if you could look right here this low this high and the top of the candle right here all really line up beautifully at 248 to 249. So right where we're closed here in the futures market that's your support. We open below that I wouldn't get all that excited. I haven't been excited since we went through this huge drop after chopping around the moving averages. But I would say that if we can hold that 249 to 250 then perhaps particularly now that there's so much uncertainty we'd have to get through these two little candles right here up maybe over about 260 and then we start looking at the 50 day moving average which you can see we've not really been above now since the very beginning of November. So we've spent a month and a half below it which tells me that if we can get again the two closes above that 277 maybe we have a much deeper rally in store. So here's soybeans and I really am interested in this because it's just one of those things I have feeling about not only from agricultural weather potential because of the drought that we're seeing in Brazil but also we're seeing drought in some of the soybean growing regions here in the U.S. believe it or not Minnesota which usually has about 40 inches of snow has had zero snow at this time of year historical and that's the kind of thing that moves these grain markets that and of course any disruption to supply chain or anything that emboldens Putin another theory of mine now that there's been all this talk about how much more support the West is willing to give to Ukraine nonetheless if we take a look at this strictly by the numbers we do have see there's a reversal bottom that worked real well but we have higher lows I like that number two is even though we've had a death cross and you can see that the slopes on these moving averages are somewhat negative it gives us a very clear place to look at from terms of bias anything over 1317 to me is more of a bullish bias and of course anything under these levels here which would be at around 1304 would be more negative under 1304 not so interested at least not from the long side but again if we can get through these areas right here at around 1323 1317 to 1323 we have to once again be looking at these moving averages so that's me as the soybean chart if you step back overall this is a huge amount of consolidation that we're seeing here and I think even though we have a nice little trend line we want to draw in that would also support a long term move but right now again just looking at a short term you've got 1317 basically up to around 1335 is kind of your dead zone although a little bit more to the positive side and there over that gets interesting okay let's take a look here at um British pound versus the US dollar um very interesting looking chart here and I've added now our momentum indicator and by the way next year we're going to be looking at July calendar ranges which will really help set the tone for the direction of the market particularly in election years they're very interesting but more on that later for right now again following so technically here of course this is going to be the British pound to the dollar so that means that the pound is really showing here as a little bit of pressure against the dollar right now and so but after this move that we kind of predicted particularly if you look at the yen versus the dollar which reverse course a little bit today and I know there's some kind of big announcement coming that could impact the dollar overall which of course would impact this relationship but we've got to say 125 really is our major area of support right here and if we hold above 125 you got to maintain a bullish bias you could see that we had an inside day but we have not had a reversal in other words this was a new 60 plus day high and we did not break down under the low so this is nothing more than a gentle correction that we're having right here I think even above 125 we can look at the pivotal area of around 126 and change above that I think you have to maintain the bullish bias below perhaps we see that 125 maybe we go down to the 50 again I don't know if this is necessarily going to be any kind of amazing mover over the next few days as we get seasonally quiet but I would be encouraged if not only we get through that 126 but we start to move back up above all this work that we did here which really we can say conservatively is around 127 14 and then of course look at that you had two candle bodies right here stopped dead in the tracks at 127 638 so through that then your next area resistance would be very bullish for the pound not so great for the dollar clearly good for come out of these but then I would be looking up at around 128 46 and finally let's take a look at the S&P future so before I left we were talking about this move that once this held 440 that was going to be the place that it had to take off from and man did that turn out to be the case you had the gap and we haven't looked back I'll see anything negative on this chart which of course is incredible we look at the momentum here we also have the gap in momentum and the momentum getting a little bit rich I like to look back in former momentum here so if you take a look at this where it gapped we could have a little bit more momentum here before we get into some resistance which could actually match the high at least with the SPY ETF at around 475 this is getting kind of close here so you know around 475 maybe up to 477 just to give it a little bit of room compared to what's happened with the actual ETF market let's go back and see where this actual all-time high was and it was at 481 484818 to say it correctly so you know we're getting there we have an extreme greed readings here in sentiment as I said we could be getting a little bit overbought but things overbought can get more overbought but more importantly this is in a direction where this is really coming off of the whole Fed I believe and just the seasonality of euphoria you only live one type of attitude and kind of a disbelief that anything could bad could happen in the United States to unravel what we've already been seeing which is a lot of cash being added to the system and a lot of people still on the sidelines and fixed income looking to potentially move into the market all of this has given us this tremendous move where would I change my mind well right now looking just at the S&P 500 ETF I like that 470 to hold 470 we end the month under 470 I think we're going to start January not as quiet as keen as a lot of people think and so this we're just looking at this chart in the futures I think if you want to say that 4,700 really lines up well here 4,698 under that this starts to look a little toppy okay that's it for now hope you have a very great day hopefully when I talk to you next I won't sound like a frog in the meanwhile see you all soon bye for now