 Well, hello everyone. We're going to give you a little time to come in. I'm Virginia Robert. I'm the foreign desk editor for Lysikoo, the French business daily. And we're going to talk about a very incredible electoral year coming ahead. I hear an echo. Is that normal? Yeah, maybe. Yeah, well, probably normal. Did you hear the echo too? No. The sound is very loud. So to discuss this incredible year we have ahead of us, I have with me Igor Yorgens, who's from Russia. He's a man of insurance. He's been involved in the insurance industry for many years and several associations. And he's also involved in the Russian International Affairs Council. Next to him is Isabel Lassin, who is a journalist just like me. She's the diplomatic correspondent for Le Figaro, the French newspaper, very well known. She's been a defense correspondent, diplomatic correspondent, foreign correspondent, war reporter. So she's done it about all. And she just wrote a book about Poutine and Macron. That is going very well. The book is, maybe not the relationship, but the book is doing very well. And next to me is Iro Yuakita, who is a senior writer for Nikkei. He publishes commentaries and columns on foreign affairs and security affairs. And he's worked all over the place in London, in Washington, in Beijing. He's been a foreign correspondent, so he knows foreign affairs very well. And behind us I see Mr. Gruffa, who joined us, finally through a video link. Welcome. And he's a banker. And I met him in New York when he was working for Citi at the time. And he's involved in many, many different projects. So before we start the panel, I'd like to share with you a study that came out yesterday, actually. And it's a study published by International Idea. And that's an Internet governmental group that is based in Sweden and that monitors the state of democracy. And the findings are really pretty appalling because it shows that in 2022, the world has entered the longest democratic recession ever observed, which means that for the sixth consecutive year, democratic values are losing ground everywhere. And I mean everywhere, I mean in Europe, I mean in the Americas and India and Russia. And declines have occurred in the very foundations of democracy, revealing weaknesses in the electoral processes, in the ability of legislators to act as checks on the executive overreach, and also the difficulty for people to access the institutions of justice. You have countries for instance like Tunisia, Afghanistan, Belarus, Nicaragua, Myanmar that have shown great recessions, regressions last year. And this institutional weakness is combated by continuing declines in core democratic rights, including freedom of expression, freedom of association and assembly, I'm sorry, and freedom of the press. And Europe of course is not immune because according to the report, the rule of law has weakened, I won't surprise many of you, but in Hungary and Austria where freedom of expression falters, access to justice is more difficult in the UK as well as in France, where the freedom to assembly is also fading. Poland last year had many factors deteriorating and the recent elections won by the opposition might pave the way for a betterment. So it is not an overstatement to say that globally, democracy now faces pressure everywhere, with authoritarian regimes tightening their grip and too many elected leaders adopting authoritarian tactics to claim to control. Meanwhile, you have misinformation campaigns, political polarization and rising inequality that erode people's trust in democracy. So as you probably agree with me, it is of paramount importance that democracies show their resilience, not all political regions are equal, and next year's elections will show indeed if the democratic process is able to rebound. So to start the discussion, we're going to start with Isabel who will give us a roundup of this election year so we have a good grasp of what is happening. 44 countries are going to have either a new president or a new parliament who also have elections in Europe. So it's something that is quite extraordinary. 2024 will be an incredible year regarding the elections organized absolutely everywhere in India, the biggest democracy in South Africa, in Iran, Brazil, Nigeria, Taiwan, Russia, maybe in Ukraine and of course in Europe with European elections, so and USA of course. My question would be, I mean my I will try to understand if it's, if all this election will be a continuity or a break up regarding the major geopolitical trends we've seen these last years in the world. My guess is that it will be continuity. I mean except the USA elections, most of the elections in the world will have, I mean the results will have a very low impact on the geopolitical trends we are viewing today. Russian election, it's, I mean, no suspense. Iran election, very few suspense. Belarusian, the same thing. I mean the majority of the autocratic regime will organize themselves to win the election. Coming to the democratic countries, even if the power, the BGP in India is challenged, there's a few chance that geopolitical, that the foreign policy of India which is based on the multi-alignment will be changed. Even which is not, for example, which is not at the moment the most probable, even if in Taiwan the DPP loses the election and if the opposition which is asking for an appeasement politics toward China, even if they win and I could just come back from Taiwan three days ago and it's not what is expected, you will not see from one day to another Taiwan just becoming again in the China area. The important elections have already been organized in 2023 in Europe, it's Poland and Slovakia which has changed their political drive and also Turkey with a re-conduction of Erdogan. Of course you will tell me there's a big exception and a big exception which is the American election and the perspective is if Trump is re-elected of big consequences first on the help to Ukraine and second on the future of NATO. But even that is not sure because can we really expect Donald Trump to sell off the future of the western world by cutting from one day to another the help to Ukraine? I'm not really sure. My point would be that even if Trump is re-elected is coming back next year in Washington it will, I mean this election will be only an accelerator to the trends, the geopolitical trends which still exist and these trends are not at all in favor of the western world. If you liked 2023 you will definitely love 2024 because on the menu we have the generalization of the use of force which month after month is replacing the rule of law. We'll have the continuing of the collapse of the international order from 1945 and visit the international institutions which were a guarantee for peace like UN and also the disarmament treaty. We'll also have new challenges to the western world the continuing of the decrease of democracies and the augmentation of the of the autocracies. We'll have the continuation of the split of the world in two parts not camp but part or much more family. One is the south global and the other is global north and whatever the election the result of the election will be in India in South Africa in in Russia even if the states will continue and will be boosted. So for me as a western journalist traveling all around more than the elections the determining influence on the geopolitical trends in 2024 will be who's going to win the war between Russia and Ukraine and secondly what will be the consequences of the war between Israel and Hamas and meanwhile waiting for a next international order with new rules that everybody will have to work on the previous one will continue to collapse and we'll have more crisis to come in this world which is becoming a jungle one maybe the crisis between Taiwan and China others could happen in the Balkans and of course in Africa. I will end by a sentence of Joe Biden yesterday with having a conversation with the president of Chile and here's what he said he said in my view there comes a time maybe every six to eight generations where the world changes in a very short time. Here we are and I think what happens in the two or three years are going to determine what the world looks like for the next five or six decades. Okay thank you so very defining moment but not especially coming from the elections as you said because the most important ones were this year Poland Slovakia of course nevertheless there's the big one next here that everybody's looking at and it's 2024 I'm turning to you actually I'm seeing you here too Jean-Claude so maybe we can have a highlight on what is happening in the United States and where the debate is going right now. The floor is yours. Good morning, good evening, hope you can hear me well. I wish I could be with you and fortunately when I was about to board my flight I had a slight health issue to deal with and unfortunately I couldn't board the flight and I missed so much being with you and networking with many of you our quantum friends. My apologies I will try to cover in a few minutes what you I guess expecting me to talk about which is the US presidential election and I would say both generally the election in November 2024 both from the domestic standpoint but also from the point of geopolitical environment. You know what's happening in November 2024 which is almost exactly a year from today. The president will be elected for four years the House of Representatives will be elected for two years and in the Senate 33 senators which is about one third will be elected for a period of six years. Let's deal with the Senate and the House of Representatives. 20 Democrats and three independent that normally caucus with Democrats are standing for reelection. Some of them are not standing for reelection but say those are the seats and then 10 Republicans. So the total of 33. The forecast at the moment is that 14 are solid Democrat one is leading Democrat five are leading likely Democrat and treat so-called toss-up where the result will depend on the day of the election. And the Republicans are almost all likely to be elected up. There could be a change of majority in the Senate but right now as you know there is a majority of Democratic senators 51 to 9 and there is the casting vote of the vice president. So the Senate could be changing majority it will largely depend on what I call the cocktail effect of the presidential election. The House of Representatives 435 members 291 Republican 212 Democrats that since the last midterm election in November exactly a year ago and two seats are vacant. My prediction is that for the zoo that we've seen for the election of the speaker it's very unlikely that the Republican will be able to keep the majority in the House and the House could again become Democratic by a slight majority. So we are now in the period where each party and as you know there there might be several candidates but at the other day the two parties in the United States Democrat and Republican and we have the time where each of them is choosing their own candidate for next year election. The president this is the tradition whether he's Republican or Democrat a president with what we call an incumbent is likely to stand without being challenged for re-election. Yet Joe Biden is facing some opposition for a variety of reasons within his own party. First of all his age if he's elected in November next year he will assume his function at the beginning of 2025 and he will be 82 years old and when he finishes mandate he will be 86. He will be the oldest president in the history of the United States. He's also facing other issues. He's facing issues of his vice president Kamila Harris who's never been convincing and who's not like and respected even by his own party the Democratic Party. She's never been able to impress and as you know I mean if something happens to the president Kamila Harris immediately steps in and becomes the next president. Americans starting with majority of Democrats are very uncomfortable with and then he has issues with his son and the business I would say business activities of his family. So the matter is it's quite simple the people know that it will be unless something happens to him between now and the election it will be the candidate for Democratic Party yet this is not the candidate that the Democratic Party would like to have. Biden was elected in 2020 largely because he was the alternative to Bernie Sanders that people find to left in and therefore and he didn't really campaign and he was lucky to face Trump who had a lot of issues. So he was elected this time it's going to be much tougher. So people are not convinced that Biden is the candidate to face Trump assuming Trump is the Republican Party. Now let's switch to the Republican Party. Same story on the Republican Party. Trump is leading in the polls but effectively only 40% of the people will be at the primaries and I remind you at the primary only vote the people who are as Republican or Democrat. So if you can vote at the Democratic primary if you're Republican you can Republican primary but those who are independent and most of the majority of Americans are neither Republican nor Democrat. They are registered as independent. Trump only gets 40% or less of Republican voters. 60% don't want Trump. Now the problem is that they don't agree or my attitude to Trump. So Trump is like Biden not the candidate of the party as it stands now at least the majority of the Republican voters. First of all his personality. I mean some people and quite a few people don't like his personality, his style, his attitude and so on and so forth. Then he has a lot of legal issues to deal with. I mean personal issues you know sexual assault but also he took some classified document when he had functioned and brought them through Florida and really stopped and didn't care and lied about it. Then he reached the election then there was this famous January 6, 21 when there was an assault on the Capitol which shocked a lot of people in the world but shocked a lot of people as well. So and I can go on and on and Trump essentially is perceived as an egoistic person. He has done a number of things when he was president because he followed some of his advisers, some advisers who were better than some others but net net people don't feel that Trump who is also not so much younger I mean maybe a couple of years Biden is the American would like to have as the next president. So what could be the outcome you know? My view is that it's going to be Trump Biden certain so I said could have health issues and other issues between now and the election and be replaced by a government not this for sure and Trump is facing challenges and although he leads in the polls he leads in Iowa, he leads in New Hampshire, he leads also in South Carolina. Two alternatives are waiting in the wings. I'm going to throw it out. Personally, Ron DeSantis won his election during the election of 2020. I don't think that I mean it was a very significant but he's done a number of mid steps since we elected and his campaign is not going well. So he's relatively strong, could be Trump. Now I seem sort of gradually fading away. So the star in the Republican Party is Governor Kiheli, former governor of South Carolina who was also ambassador of the United Nations originally from India, a Sikh family from India and she they came to United States. She was a locally in South Carolina, had the sort of one-and-a-half term as governor of the state and was appointed by three ambassadors to the UN. She did an effective job what I would call the Reaganian part of the party, the traditional Republican who are strong on foreign policy, free market and limited government. So I would say a tradition she was loyal to Trump when she was doing her job for the at the same time she was able to take positions that are less rigid and less conservative than some other Republican particularly on the critical in the United States with women right including right to abortion. As you know, the majority of American people are in favor of abortion, not any abortion, not for extended period of time but the majority of Americans are in favor of abortion. It so happens that the majority of the Republicans is so called pipe and this is conflicting with the view of the majority. Thank you so much. That was the first round, you were very long already and we're going to come back with more questions so if you don't mind hanging up with us for a little while longer just to answer questions later on because we need we need time for everybody here. So now we have the basics, Biden on one side, Trump the other, Nikki Halley's coming up, some of you have some hopes for her but we're not sure but there are a lot of things to talk about and especially how geopolitics are getting into this this election which never happens and I know you're keen to talk about this a little later but it's going to be interesting for us to have other perspectives on this election and with Mr. Akita he's going to give us his view of how Asia is seeing this this election coming up and what it means for for Asian countries and also maybe allude also to Taiwanese elections. Okay, thank you very much for having me. Since I'm from one of the most dangerous geostrategic location surrounded by Russia, North Korea and China and Japan is just next to a Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula and Russia has been occupying Japanese territory for about 70 years. So please allow me to be a bit allow me to present a bit pessimistic view. In that context I'd like to make three points. One is about the prospect of U.S. presidential election. I don't go into detail because you know he Yeah and Dr. Gave us a lot of details. Then secondly it's implication U.S. presidential election implication for Asia or for U.S. allies and partners. And then thirdly about the Taiwan presidential election next January. So first prospect of U.S. presidential election. I traveled to southern part of U.S. last month like Georgia to meet many Mr. Trump's supporters and I did. And that reminded me that two things. One they are very very serious. They are seriously supporting Mr. Trump but more importantly many people say that U.S. economic situation is terrible. Though objective economic data says unemployment rate is quite low and the U.S. economy is kind of growing. So I asked the political scientist about it and they say it is bipartisan bias so people do not accept objective data anymore. So this means that I think that U.S. election next year is not a topic to analyze based on objective data because people don't buy it but rather it is de facto political civil war. So if it is political civil war maybe a prospect would be very very highly polarized and whether Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump will win it's gonna further deepen the division of the United States. So that is my first prospect on U.S. presidential election. And secondly second point implication of U.S. presidential election to U.S. allies. Whether Mr. Trump will become president or not I think that U.S. election will further accelerate so-called plan A dash trend. Plan A plan A world is the world in which U.S. maintain dominant power and strong leadership so that U.S. allies or partners could cheap riding on U.S. security umbrella or U.S. relying on U.S. leadership. That is the plan A world but the maybe first Trump administration brought world to plan A dash world. So we are now at the plan A dash world that is U.S. allies or partner still keep relying on U.S. military presence or leadership to some extent but realize that plan A is not the sustainable anymore so make more effort to defend itself or to make more security or military contribution to sustain U.S. military commitment. For example Japan made a decision to launch biggest military buildup after World War II namely double its defense budget within five years and also Japan reached out to reaching out to Australia, UK, South Korea, France to enhance security cooperation to support or complement U.S. military presence in the Pacific. So I think that U.S. presidential election will be highly polarized and if of course it is if Mr. Trump get elected the world will further accelerate the shift from plan A to plan A dash but even if Mr. Biden get elected people it will highlight how U.S. will be U.S. have to change challenge face the challenge internally so I think regardless who will be get elected the world will accelerate plan A dash trend but for the country who can but some of the country maybe plan A dash that is to sustain U.S. military commitment or leadership will even maybe for some country it will not be possible maybe Middle East U.S. is reducing footprint so for that country next year will be the beginning of the real plan B world so my point is that shift from plan A to plan A dash or plan B world so that is the second point and third and last point is about the Taiwan presidential election next January I think that whether ruling parties candidate or opposition parties candidate win there will be a common ground that is a stethoscope maintenance of stethoscope according to a public poll majority of Taiwan people really wants to maintain stethoscope so if ruling party candidate win maybe they try to he will try to keep a distance from mainland China but will not call for independent if opposition party leader will win the win the presidency maybe he will try to embrace more dialogue with China but will not embrace China's economic or political influence to the extent to change the stethoscope so that is a prediction thank you thank you well it's interesting because Isabel said these elections are not really going to count because it's not going to change much afterwards because what matters is what's going to happen on the battlefield in Ukraine and in Israel and you're saying that whatever the elections are going to bring about in the States definitely we're going to see an importance lessening for the United States as the big ally so now we're going to turn to Igor who's Russian so he's going to talk to us about his view of the American elections but also talk to us about the Russian election because Putin should announce very soon that he's a candidate which should not be a big surprise but how is it viewed from the inside especially when the war is going on people and soldiers are killed how does he present himself to to the Russians and your take on the American elections also thank you very much thank you to read the Montreal because from 2008 being a participant of the world policy conference that's that's worth an award there is no suspense in Russian election if it takes place on March 2024 as it's planned 80 percent of the population of those who will come to vote will vote for for mr. Putin okay this is the genesis of the system this is the history this is the geopolitical situation having said that there doesn't change that having said that unfortunately they didn't give me a clicker and i had some slides but you have to believe me yeah you have to believe me that sociology shows that number one among young people there is a big fatigue of the face because mr. Putin is in power for for the last 23 years and it's obvious then that some young people want to change second even if something happens something very unexpected and then mr. Putin for example says that i'm not running the same young people are divided into two equal categories one would say we want a stronger military to head us and another one ferociously saying no military at all we need some peaceful and and civil development of of russian federation so here you have a split even among the young category of the voters forget about the older ones who would 60 vote for somebody with the military background to to head them okay so this is the second both of them both categories and both age groups would vote for more social justice and the talk about the progressive income tax which is going on for for for decades and we still have a flat 13 percent income tax they talk about the oligarchs who are around the the kremlin and they run the country and and not us running the country and so on and so forth so whoever wins should take this into very serious consideration very telling was the reply what about the mutiny of certain mr. probably you heard of the mutiny this summer when somebody very close to to power the owner of the private army who fought in Syria in Ukraine all of a sudden raised up and from rostov-on-don went to Moscow and was stopped only 100 and kilometers from Moscow so the reply of both young and old was 50 supported them that's telling in terms of the general mood of those who are going to go and vote okay so this is the this is it you have to take into consideration the feeling of social injustice the the need for change at least in the younger part of our population and nevertheless strong hand and preferably something military somebody military on top of us again i will end up this part by saying that 80 of those who will come will vote for mr. Putin it's organized but it's also a genuine support for the figure who is who is leading the country at the moment very strong and influential people around him around Putin and visible on on the political screen and political stage of our country they say why do we need election anyway 80 percent is a given the supporters are given we're in the war why bother why why do we distract attention of the people i would say that Putin will not buy this because he needs a referendum on what's going on so he will probably need a real and clean results from the different territories we don't forget that Russia is one seventh of the landmass with hundred nation and nationalities it's very telling and interesting to know who reacts on what and how at this present stage of the serious geopolitical conflict so it's like a survey for him it is a survey and a referendum for him and for people around him who run the country in his name or together with him having said this i should say that given the circumstances about 30 percent of the survey 30 percent of those who participated in the sociological poll they didn't know that we are having the election and didn't care less and so from this point of view this indifference also is very important to take into consideration for anybody who is doing the the the political management of the situation in in view of this american election is is of more hype and interest for the average russian than than probably ours and from this point of view there is no question that the mainstream media is for Trump whether they are given a sort of advice or that's their honest opinion no matter but it's obvious from all of the analysis of the mainstream i'm not talking about telegram channels and social media but the mainstream would would definitely provide all kind of support to trump and all kind of oh he's old he's falling from the tar market etc etc to biden it's obvious same would happen in french election if it happens tomorrow same kind of arguments will be for in favor of le pen and against macron if the the decision of great britain on participation in e you would happen tomorrow they would be for farage and and against anybody who who is eurocentric so that's obvious that's the result of the geopolitical situation and again no matter what after march 24 if everything goes according to the normal plan very serious messages will be delivered to kremlin to take care of what's going on and from this point of view of course we are now a junior partner of chinese people's republic and certain elements will definitely be taken care of not only in mosco but then beige into so big reshuffle of the political staff is that what you're saying we'll see what happens in terms of reshuffle they talk about reshuffle all the time but we know that mr putin is very loyal to his environment to his entourage i don't think i don't think of great reshuffle but the accents should be should be changed seriously well thank you for for this assessment jean claude i know you're back i don't know if they can put you back on the screen behind us but i wanted to ask you yes you're back here um you had disappeared for a while um we when we talked over the phone you said that something that never happened in u.s elections before was the theme of foreign policy becoming of importance to americans and that usually never happens but this time because of the war in ukraine and because of what's happening with this kind and the hamas it has become a big um challenge for the politicians can you tell us a little more about this please yes uh traditionally i would say there is a consensus between the republican and the democrat and foreign policy and uh i heard what some of the panelists were saying about the quasi civil war in the united states this is true that we have a bipolarization of american politics but this bipolarization is no longer just on domestic issues it's also on foreign issues and uh let's talk about ukraine for a period of time when russia invaded ukraine a year and a half ago there was immediately an overwhelming support to help ukraine and not getting involved directly obviously in in a war but providing massive support financial support but also military support and this military support has been overwhelming this support at the beginning endorsed by i would say both sides the republican and the the democrat but over time we've seen gradually less support from some part of the republican party the republican party is not just one bloc you have i would say the trump minority you have the traditional isolationist who are not supporting foreign involvement and that's led by people like rand paul and then you have i would say the reganian part with nikki heli but also people like team scott and mike pence and so on who want the united states to be involved and play a role if not dominant at least significant in foreign policy that's until very recently biden has been able to get from congress both the house and the senate the financial that he needs and let's face it you know very cynically you might say united states has been benefiting from the war in ukraine for three reasons first of all remember some time ago your french president was saying nato is brand dead i mean nato has never been stronger that's one fact and two major country who had stayed neutral since world war two are now joining nato sweden and finland which is extremely significant so nato has never been stronger and the countries that are on the border of russia wants nato to be more involved protect them because they believe that if ukraine falls they're likely to be the next target so that's number one number two the money that has been spent by united states is coming back in the form of military orders you see for example when germany who was not spending that much on defense but japan as well and so on where who are they buying from from the united states so they're not buying from europe they're buying from united states they're very few example so and third on the energy side us which is more or less self-sufficient and trumped a role for that is now supplying europe with the natural guard that they used to get from from russia so the united state has been benefiting from this war from an economic standpoint and from a strategic standpoint at the same time there's a less and less support for additional head to ukraine simply because this war is lasting longer than many people were expecting and there is no obvious solution in the very near future we know that trump would probably drop to a significant extent the american head to ukraine but part of the democrat are also now more hesitant and one reason is simply the fact that we now have this war in the mid-list between israel and amas and again there's no consensus on this war you've seen people on the right and on the left being reluctant by then has been extremely supportive of the israeli counter offensive on amas and the ground invasion in gaza but at the same time part of the democratic party the left wing part of the democratic party is now voicing some disagreement and by then to be a reluctant needs to have the vote of these people as you know i mean there's no bernie sanders or elizabeth warren running against him he's unopposed from practical standpoint it doesn't mean that he may not lose vote that could be critical in some states if the war lasts for too long and if the civilian casualties in gaza become i would say unbearable so we have a situation where yes the next presidential election in the u.s could have significant impact the question of taiwan is very critical there is a minority of people in the united states would support an american involvement should china attack taiwan in the very near future but this is only a minority the americans feel in majority that they can only get involved in a foreign war or foreign conflict if there is a significant component in the american society that support this involvement that was the case for example during the uh island u k conflict there was always a support for the irish side on the america because of the large irish community so the uh jewish community in the united states you're probably aware of that you know how many jewish people in united states 7.6 there's more jewish people in united states that in the state of israel the state of israel has a population of of nine million people but only 43 percent are jewish people so we are in a situation where there is and in new york city where i live one i mean one point six percent one point six million people are part of this jewish population the muslim population in united states is three and a half million people and the muslim population is not just arab these are people coming from africa there are people from iran there are people coming from somalia and egypt and so on you also have 3.5 million arab people so but in 2050 the projection is that there will be eight million muslims in the united states which means that the muslim population will surpass the israeli population bottom line i think this election in november might see some shift of vote based on consideration of what's happening in taiwan what's happening in ukraine but frankly speaking if you watch american tv and listen to the news and read the newspapers these days nobody talks about ukraine anymore we used to have ukraine all over the screen now it's all about gaza israel and this is a real concern i know for this for the ukrainian government because the new speaker is pushing some funding but the is separating biden wants a package to support ukraine and israel and and the republicans say no we should split we should vote on the help to israel and we should vote on the head to ukraine and we know why they do that because they're probably not likely to support additional money for ukraine it's interesting to see that as in russia somehow the elections are going to be a survey of what people think and especially regarding foreign affairs in the united states which is something we really didn't have a big grasp on up to up until now if there are any questions in the room i think we have 20 minutes yeah there are a couple so if you can bring a mic somebody please so i see too um there's one gentleman in the monsieur fouché and another gentleman in the in the back excuse me um yeah if you can raise your hand it's oh can you give it to monsieur fouché please sorry next time a former ambassador and a geographical the short question to Jean Claude do you see an alternative candidate on the side of the democratic party who would be the equivalent of niki alle for the republican party thank you short answer to your question governor of california or governor of michigan so do gavin newson the governor of california yeah yeah so there's a question over there the lady with the mic and i think the young man one you had a question too right okay thank you i'm daniel andler from paris sauban i'm dumbfounded that none of you ever mentioned the role of social media and the role of artificial intelligence and the amplification of well-known propaganda tricks i mean the the the journalists from japan said people are immune to rational arguments not so much i'm not so convinced they're not immune to propaganda when it's done in a certain industrial way anyway whatever your opinion are is on this important and well-known topic what what you think about that and what you think the what is going to be the role of these ai-powered propaganda systems for the coming elections well this is the perfect timing for a question because this is actually one of my questions but i'm very glad you brought the topic so what the power of generative ai do you think like for instance politician should have some kind of transparency during the elections saying now this is a roadmap we're not going to use ai or if we use ai that's how we're going to do it is this something that should come up now in the political discourse in campaigning so maybe uh mr akita um yes i think that uh uh it is very very serious problem and i think there should be some restriction um because the situation is that uh political landscape is polarized but also especially in the u.s i can feel that there is a huge polarization of media itself so when i turn on the cnn i listen you know i watch some news program but when then i turn to a fox news it's totally parallel world and then i switch to another one so i think that the even objective broad tv program uh provide different angle so without any restriction on the free flow of information in unrestricted cyberspace it is very it will create amplify very chaotic situation and it can be easily disrupted or manipulated by some actor say that igor i'd like to have your take on this because you know there's a lot of accusations against russian trolls during the elections especially in 2016 in the states what do you answer to this question because it's a real fear yeah since the official election is overly organized and fully controlled then in the mass social media you have a lot of different opinions some of them very exotic some of them goes a little bit you know beyond reasonable etc etc the only effort which i know of during the last election when opposition called for voting on anybody be it communist socialist or extreme rightist but who are against the ruling party united russia okay so this experiment ended up in one percent one point five percent of the result you see so from this point of view when the country is organized like we are organized and when the election is controlled the way we are controlled then this effort of social media a lot of noise no no efficient electoral result that's number one number two number two number two a lot of people left our country after especially young productive creative left after the beginning of the conflict with ukraine they are split all together we were discussing with some of them today they are split and they don't have unity at all they keep accusing each other in all kind of mistakes rather than mobilizing for one candidate who would represent a real opposition maybe isabel you could address this as a journalist when you cover foreign elections the fact that now we have to be eager of so many fake news going around that the elections and the freedom of speech is really manipulated it's making it very complicated for journalists to work what do you think of it well it's one more argument to go on the ground and not to cover elections through social results but I mean I think it's one of the weaknesses of democracy countries like Russia and China have been investing for years in warfare and cyber initiatives the elections in in Europe and in the states have been act for years and you have this I mean Europe is just realizing it you know for an hour or two or three years but the I mean the changes come very slow for years we have considered that in the cyber area for example the our purpose other democratic countries was not to have an attack department in the cyber area but only a defense department so I think we have 10 or I mean it's also we have not invested in this area for also for for moral reasons you know so it's very difficult today to be I mean to to be protected with efficiency I just come back from time one and this is very interesting because Taiwan is subjected during each elections by cyber attack from China influences through the medias of the Kuomintang and you know paid by China and this year they succeeded to lower down the level of fake news by forbidings I mean you know the system was that China was influencing the Taiwanese people through by investing in the religious institutions so Taiwan succeeded to to cut the transfer of money coming from China to Taiwan so this year you have a decrease of I think 40 or 50 percent of the Chinese influence directly in the in the Taiwanese influence so this is an example but we are we are far away you know of what should be needed to do I know that in France I mean that we're just starting and you said we have a very defensive position right now not offensive at all it's a taboo it's a taboo it's so I know there was another question I don't know if you have a microphone oh and there's one just okay go ahead I just see what I guess um John Andrews here from The Economist a question for Jean-Claude um is it plausible that Joe Biden can somehow persuade Canmar Harris with a good job offer not to be his running mate and if so does he need to find a black woman as her replacement um and clearly Gavin Newsom would not be such a woman and if you take the Republican side do you do you think Nikki Haley is actually basically running to be Trump's running mate okay I think it's too late for Biden to replace Canmar Harris is made the announcement Canmar Harris will be running with Biden if Biden is the nominee as it likely to happen for the democratic party so if Biden wanted to replace Canmar Harris it would have been done months ago essentially when he announces candidacy so she's the candidate for vice president and people and this is frankly speaking one of the arguments that the Republican will be and should be using when you look at Biden the way he behaves what he says the way he express himself people have to think that Canmar Harris is likely to be the next president I wish she will but Canmar Harris is likely to be the president that the democratic party will elect if they vote for Biden that's number one now you asked a question I had the privilege of meeting twice Nikki Haley when she started the campaign during fundraising events in New York and I had conversation one to one with her and she said it very very publicly she said I'm running for president I'm not running to be the vice president and I truly believe her I think let's Frank she is 53 54 if she doesn't make it this time she has a very good chance of being the nominee for the next election four years from now she will be 57 58 so she Trump is likely to be the nominee of the Republican Party Trump will obviously choose someone to be his vice president good luck to the person that who's going to be chosen by Trump because this is this election is a toss-up I have absolutely if you look at the polls you know forget about the primaries if you look at the polls it's really very very close and so many things can happen between now and the election particularly for Trump also who facing so many issues and by then you know inflation the southern border the problem with the family so the fact of the matter is that frankly speaking Trump thinks only about himself and he doesn't care he will have a vice president candidate it's very unlikely to be nickered or run the scientists for that matter it will be somebody else it could be a governor of the state of I'm not sure if it's south I forgot her name you know I mean the governor of North Dakota or South Dakota was a woman and not an African American it's a white woman but she's a governor and she's very popular in some conservative women I forgot her name skipped my mind but I'm sure you can find her I think she's the governor of South Dakota okay so we have to look for Nico Halley but four more years I think there is another question that's what I think yeah yeah that's what you said yeah I saw somebody else yeah some hands erased in the back please somebody's going to bring you a mic hello I'm Axel Gilden from the french magazine lexpress to follow up on this question is there is is there a scenario where Joe Biden steps down before summer and the convention it happens the old way in the convention decides for a new candidate or Joe Biden has to to he's impeach because he's he's sick or something and what happens then another scenario for Biden impeachment I don't believe it I mean impeachment is not for sickness if if it impeachment it's the democrat are able to link the fundraising of his family there's two checks have been produced where we see 10 percent of amount of money received by his brother and his son but it was mark loan repayment so I mean I don't Biden is not going to be impeached there's not going to be enough evidence to and I'm not sure if he's really corrupted I mean the family has been trying to use his name for benefiting by getting money from shady characters in foreign countries whether it's Romania Russia China and so on and so forth they've been all people do that in the political scene in the united states they've done it to an extent that's unprecedented but that's not going to be enough no the only thing that could prevent him from being the nominee would be his health if he had a major health issue he may have to step down but that's the only reason why I would see him otherwise he's gonna you know there's some I just learned yesterday for example that you know you have to register in every state for the primaries and so on it's not even registering for primary in New Hampshire he's taking for granted that he will be the nominee of the party so only a significant health issue would prevent him from being the nominee but that that's what usually happens when you have an incumbent president he you know he doesn't go through the primary process you want to follow up and I think somebody else has a question behind you if you can pass the mic afterwards just to clarify I just meant impeached by his health I didn't mean impeached for judicial reasons no no no no no no okay no no I take it I take it and my answer to you is that that's the only reason why he wouldn't stand if if he had a major health issue and in the back there's another question yes hello Nicola Pio from Tilt Capital thank you very insightful maybe a question drawing on Miss Lacer's point on continuity is it correct to read what is happening right now in 2024 being maybe a step in this direction that there is a I would say a continuity towards a big move globally towards far right extremism which is in fact fueled by fake news and social media etc how do we get out of that to be frank as a citizen European citizen I'm extremely concerned by the fact that every time we move and we see a scandal in this in the sense of manipulation it goes in the direction of far right extremism and it's very hard to fight on a on a rational basis the arguments of this of this trend thank you well the fact that there's more and more votes for populist candidates and in general each time you have a new scandal it brings out more nationalism and populism but it's it's it's often true but it's not always the case like what we saw in Poland after some years of government the opposition was was able to find another path so I mean we have to be confident in in people who are voting and you know who are able to to choose differently but it's true and if you look at Europe for instance I mean a lot of nationalistic countries have been building up and we have a lot of governments and coalitions now with the far right and that never happened before so is this something that you're concerned about this movement towards more nationalism that we see in elections if I don't betray your thoughts no we so I worry more about the fragmentation of the global order rather than rising nationalism in each in each individual state is very serious problem but I worry more about the you know the fragmentation of the international system through the next year's series of election is more serious and maybe people speak about the multi-polar multi-polar but the polar means you have a polar right US Europe and maybe China or hopefully Japan India polar but the maybe world will be more like a multi-universe without the without a strong polar but the universe universe coexist together without any order that is more dangerous and that was a big concern of the two round tables we had this morning that are really interesting saying it was it was time those elections are so time to pull together and find out what are our common objectives and what is the world order you need to reveal on the economic side but also on the political side Isabel you want to add something to the question of this information I do really agree with you it's really frightening because what we see today is each time when you have two parts it's just I mean the disinformation has absolutely is overwhelming I mean the facts today are less important other as a the the perception the emotion and the ideology we I mean we just have the last example is is absolutely obvious between Israel and Hamas I mean depending the place where you are in the world you just don't see the same images and so it's very very hard to to counter disinformation but also it's very very hard to I mean to to to counter the the rapidity of the information the emotion which is driven by the in the in the social area and and on the internet you it's not audible anymore and of course this leads to more extremism in each part of the world and on every subject well thank you we've touched a lot of ground a lot of different topics and it was very interesting thank you very much all for being here this afternoon it's thanks to our panelists