 This is Michelle Schneider, a Mitch Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com, coming to you on the close August 29th of the U.S. markets. And we have a lot of stuff coming out. We certainly have already begun with some numbers starting with the JOLTS report showing that there are actually fewer jobs available, which I think is probably a good sign. All of that becomes relatively irrelevant because as we know, and what we've seen over and over in this market is that price rules and price pays. So I'd like to start actually, we're going to mix things up a little bit here. We're going to start with NVIDIA, work our way to the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen into the spy, gold, moment about silver, oil, and natural gas. So what you're looking at right here is NVIDIA. Now we know with NVIDIA, we had the earnings report, and this was the action on the day of the earnings report. It got up to a high of 502.66 and then reversed. Now technically, when we have those kind of reversals, we look at about a $50 move or a 10% move lower, and clearly we saw that because it went down to $450. And if you recall when we talked about it, we said if it couldn't get through $480, then $450 was going to be your area to look at. That's exactly what happened yesterday on Monday. It held that $450 and popped. And now today, you can see that we got back through that $480, which is our next major area. This is based on a six-month calendar range high. We do two resets a year, January, and then again in July. And what we like to track is when it has a false breakdown below and then comes back through like we saw on this day, which is where these blue triangles are coming from. And conversely, if we get a move through, what we're going to be looking for now and what's going to be very important is whether or not this can hold above that six-month calendar range high, which is at that $480, $480 one level. If it does, then I would think it's probably inevitable that we take out that $502.66 and continue to work higher since we'll be in uncharted territory. Who knows? Always employ good risk-taking and good profit-taking along the way. If it breaks down into $480 as we're coming in tomorrow, if the numbers aren't satisfactory to the market, then of course we'd be looking at today's high as sort of a top, a new top, which would be around 490 and under 480, we would look to see once again that happens at 450. And the only reason why the 50-day moving average might come into focus is if you look down here, this is our real motion momentum indicator. And even though we are good in that, we are getting better in terms of our momentum coming off the test of the Volinger Band back here, we have not yet crossed this 50-day moving average. This is a bearish momentum indicator. Not necessarily the end-all be-all, but respect that this will have to clear that 50-day moving average in momentum, as well as the leadership against the spy. Even though we are outperforming the spy, we have not really been able to clear the high of the momentum on this day. And we're still brushing along the Volinger Band here. So you don't want to see a breakout and then a mean reversion to the downside as we're getting bearish momentum, and especially if we cannot hold and clear above that 480. Okay, let's move on to the S&P 500 cache. So this is an important day because we have cleared the 50-day moving average, but we know we need two closes above this 50-day moving average, or let's call it 4490 before we get too excited. The other really important thing to be looking at is the fact that we're still possibly forming a right shoulder on a head and shoulders top. Where would this be negated? Number one is we not only would have to hold above the 50-day moving averages, I just mentioned it, 4490, but we'd also really have to clear these highs here at around 4510. So we come in at about 4490, yes, 4490, we clear 4510. That's very positive. It basically makes this not longer a head and shoulders top, but more possibly even a double bottom when not a bottom in the classic sense because it's not at new lows, but a double bottom of the recent move since May, and which case then we can say, hmm, 460 here we come. We cannot hold above this 4490, 4485 as we come into tomorrow. I would start to think that perhaps this is more of a topping pattern, and that's how tenuous we are right here, in which case I would want to see what happens closer as we got down to around 4,400, 4,440, and then that's 4,440, here's 4,400, and then I would be looking at the 4,400 level. On a neckline breakdown, this would have to have a move and close underneath 4,365 to really basically confirm that this could be a head and shoulders top. If that's the case, you take the measured move from the high to the low, so it would be about a move from 4,640, down to around 4,360, and that would be about a $300 move. Think about that. That would put this back down closer to 4,000 and would take a lot of people off guard. But let's not get ahead of ourselves for tomorrow. We're going to look at that 50 day moving averages pivotal at 4,490, 4,485 to 90. We get above 4,510, that would be very bullish. We break down onto that 4,590. I would expect to see what happens here at around 4,450, and if that breaks down, then I would certainly be changing my mind, at least in the spice to a more negative pattern. Looking at the gold chart right here, this of course is the December contract. You don't really want to trade the spot because the volume is way lower. Volume on this today was about 166,000, I believe I just saw. Nonetheless, you can see that this is the contract. Now, last week when we talked, we said that as long as this held above here on the 1,900 level looking at spot, that we were still bullish. And so far that's looking to be the case. However, now is when the rubber meets the road because we're getting into a few areas of resistance all converging. Number one is the 50 cross below the 200, putting us in a death cross or a bearish phase. Number two is we had this trend line that we had drawn in last week. Rough trend line, not perfect, but nonetheless we get an idea of an area at around 1974. So let's say this, for our pivotal area right now, I believe that 1950 to 1955, really we can even say 1947 to 1955 is our major support. That holds, we're definitely going to be thinking more of buying the dip. And clearly, we'd like to see a move back over 1970 and then ultimately 1975, 1980 for the up move really to continue. However, if it comes in, comes in around that 1950 to 1955 and cannot get a rally and starts to break down, then I do believe that it's possible, not that I see a head and shoulders top tight pattern like why I saw in the other chart because we had, we almost had it and then it broke down but never took out this low here and came right back. In this case, what I see more is higher lows, which makes me positive, the gold market. But nonetheless, we can't be silly. Under 1940, I would probably say we're long gold too. Time to maybe put in a stop and not turn a winner into a loser. Now, I also feel like we have to be looking at the silver market right here because in the silver market, it looks much, much better and there's two very important things about silver. So we're gonna look at silver December contract as well and have a look and see what I'm talking about. Okay, so number one, in the silver contract, we said that we were very friendly silver, remember. Things look bad in the metals it's time to buy. Things look great in the metals it's been time to sell. The day that changes, that's going to be huge. When we start to buy strength, we know that we're in a whole new ballpark. But for now, let's assume we're still into the sell strength by weakness. Which tells me that we already have the nice pop over the 50 and the 200 day moving average, number one. And number two is we've gotten through that $25 an ounce, 2450 now is gonna be our new level to hold. 2450 and under, I would start to say, there's your sell the strength. We hold 2450 and higher and then get back up again and hold that 25 level. Then I would really have to look to see what happens if you go back to these levels right here that kept holding and the last high before silver fell, which is right here. Over 2534, I would think that this is going to get another move up, possibly up to 2650, possibly higher. The other thing that's important to note with this one is that we are so far outperforming the gold, which in and of itself is not only bullish for silver and bullish for gold, but also a real indication of inflation because if the silver to gold ratio gets over 80 and holds, generally that means that we have not seen the end of inflation and we could actually be entering another round of it for a myriad of reasons of why that could happen. So we looked at the cash S&P. We looked at the December contracts of both the silver and the gold. In the crude oil though, we can go back to looking at the spot contract, which is the October contract because the volume is very good there. Now, once again, I feel vindicated because remember now I have been very bullish in the oil market for quite some time and we talked about $78 as the area where I would get more defensive last week. Now remember, we could hit it intraday as we did here, maybe took out a couple of longs and got some stops hit, maybe even got some people short, but it didn't hold and more importantly, it didn't close under 78. So think about closing levels when we talk about some of these key spots. So again, as long as we hold 78, we like it. Right now we can even take that up a little bit and see what happens here. Let's go back to the last time we had these highs which was back in June and now here we are above it. So let's call 8060 in spot a very key area. We closed at 81.24 today. We continue to hold 8060 down to 80. That would be my real first area of caution. So let's say 8060 and above were bullish. Obviously we have some resistance up here to get through. There's a substantial amount of resistance about a dollar higher at 82.40. But we get through that and the next thing you know, we're talking about 90 to $95. Maybe even $100 a barrel. So again, keep your eye on 80. 8060 is your first pivotal number. Below, maybe we test the 80. Below that, maybe we actually start to see a sell-off. Above 80 and 8060, more positive. We get through these levels right here of these highs I just mentioned to you before over these 8070s and hold 8060. Then we'd be looking at 82, up to 8270 and then we get through there. And I think off she goes. So I couldn't be more fascinated by a chart than I am about the natural gas. And again, this is the spot. This is the October contract. What's fascinating me about this chart is it really hasn't gone anywhere. But what is interesting also is that in that six month calendar range I just showed you before in NVIDIA, if we look at the one on a layover on the futures in natty gas, it comes in at 258. Now I had mentioned 240 was where I real, obviously bottom rock in the sand. But I think we can raise that up to 258. So if we just take a look at what 258 looks like, that's right here. So we hold above 258, I have to be more positive. Below it, I wouldn't necessarily say negative, but with least we would probably assume we could take another trip down to 240. But above 258, the next place of course you want to be looking at is that 50 day moving average at 275. And we would need two closes above that. If we hold 258 and get through 275 twice, so that would be on Wednesday and Thursday of this week in the U.S. markets, then it's very possible that we're not only going to get through 280 easily, but we can see our way back up above the more recent eyes at spot, which was at 310. And then we start looking here at the 200 day moving average at 326. Remember, what I'm still thinking is this could take time, but this whole thing could be a giant base ready to go much higher. And lastly, we're going to take a look at the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen. What is fascinating about this chart? Well, there's a few things. First of all, the dollar itself, we talked about if it got through 103.50, it may get closer to 105. It kind of got close to that, not quite up there, so it's had a spectacular reversal today in the one day. So speaking of reversals, you know we like reversals, and the reversal up here with a high of 147.37 and a low today of 145.66 tells us that any close below 145.66 definitely means that we've had maybe a near term top in in the dollar versus the yen, and the yen could go higher while the dollar can go lower. So let's call that 145.67 a good pivotal area. We open above it, maybe our next area we'll be looking at would be up around 146.57. So we're talking about less than a dollar worth of a move higher, but still it would be a little bit more strength than the dollar against the yen. On the flip side, we gap lower, I would just follow it. I would say that the yen is going to outtake the dollar at least in terms of price, and it's possible then we would see the dolly and relationship get back down to around 144.50. And of course the 50 day moving average would become our ultimate target at least for the first time down, which would be around 143. So lower than 145.76 or 66, which was the low today, right? 145.66, think negative. Above 146.30, think more positive. And if we can't get through the high of 147.37 and we wound up with more of an inside day, which is possible, then we'd be looking for a breakdown of that low the next day. Just want to turn your attention quickly here. This is our real motion momentum indicator. Now notice just how well this Bollinger ban has worked. Number one is when we were over the Bollinger ban, of course we had that nice move in the dollar. As soon as it had a mean reversion here where it broke down under the Bollinger ban, is when we got a much more substantial stall off. We broke down under the 50, we held the 200, even though we broke down here, we immediately cleared it. That gave you a signal, especially as we got back through here and back through the 50, that this may pop. But of course we got a little bit of chop right here. What's more important to me is this upper Bollinger ban and we broke above it for a couple of days, below it for a couple of days, but held the 50. And now we have not been below that Bollinger ban really since the beginning of August, August 7th. So that tells me that if we break down here and we break down the momentum with a mean reversion to the downside, then we would be looking for what happens first. A momentum move to the 50 and holds or price move to the 50 and hold. And it's possible, it's possible that the next time the momentum breaks down under the 50, that would be telling us that even if the price is still above, we're going to be looking at lower prices coming in terms of the dolly end. Just blowing this up right here. I mean, we've had a nice basing action. And of course, ultimately this could easily go to 138. Just taking the highs from back here with this high here, this high here, putting a line across, also corresponds with this low here. So 138 or 137.90 would be a good ultimate target to the downside. Okay, that's it for now. I hope this was helpful to you. I hope you enjoyed. Get some good trading tips. Have any questions? You can always find me on Twitter at Market Minute. Thanks so much for watching and bye for now.