 And let's go to one of the more controversial players in all of fantasy football, and that's Derek Henry. I took the L with Derek Henry earlier last month on the Things That I Missed podcast. But like I said on that show, the process for not being super into Henry wasn't that far off in my opinion. Let me run back some of the stats from that show to explain why. About Ryan Tannehill last year, Derek Henry averaged 69 yards nice and 14.6 ppr points per game. When Tannehill took over his quarterback, that yards per game number jumped by 56, and his points per game average rose by well over 8. When Marcus Mariota was under center, Derek Henry wasn't that great of a fantasy back. When Ryan Tannehill, who was arguably the league's most efficient passer this year, depending on the metric that you look at, when he took over, things changed for Derek Henry. At least a portion of this can be credited to GameScript. Henry's snap rate jumped by about 10% when Ryan Tannehill took over. Because Tennessee went from ranking 12th in the NFL and offensive plays run while trailing by 7 or more under Marcus Mariota to running the 10th fewest when Tannehill was playing. They were leading more. For running back that's not used very heavily in the passing game, that's a big deal. Henry hit his career high and targets this past year. That's great. But he also only had 24 targets. That's not great. And don't forget, the Titans were a complete outlier with their red zone efficiency this past season. I sent a tweet prior to the AFC championship game that showed red zone touchdown to fuel goal ratio from week 7 onward. That week 7 mark was when Ryan Tannehill took over. During that time and up until that championship game, the Titans had scored 31 red zone touchdowns while kicking one red zone fuel goal. To give you some perspective of how insane that is, the team that was second highest in ratio over that time was Carolina. They had 17 touchdowns versus 4 fuel goals. The Titans had a ratio of 30 freaking 1 to 1 in terms of red zone touchdown to fuel goals. The Panthers had a ratio of 4.3, and they were in second. There's almost zero chance that the Titans are going to be as efficient at scoring touchdowns next season as they were this year. Now in general, when I'm looking to sell players in dynasty, I'm asking myself if the guys that I might be looking to sell are currently at peak value. And I think that there's a very easy case to be made that Derek Henry's value won't be any higher than it is right now, especially with the way that the playoffs went. Because the reality of this situation is that it's going to regress. Let's just look at Derek Henry himself. He averaged over 5 yards per carry this past year, which was even better than his 4.9 average the year prior. Yards per carry can be a very noisy statistic that isn't very predictive whatsoever. And with any statistic like that, you need to watch out for regression. For example, since 2011, we've seen 48 running back seasons where the running back has had 100 or more carries and a yards per carry rate at or above 5 yards. That's a little over 5 instances per season. In 2019, we had 7 of those seasons, with Henry being one of them. And since we had 7 of them in 2019, that means that we've got next season data on 41 of those running backs. So to recap here, 41 running backs since 2011 with 100 or more carries and a yards per carry rate at or above 5. Among those players, only 5 of them were able to maintain that yards per carry rate of 5 the following season. And the next season average was 4.3. But okay, yards per carry matters, but it's not the biggest deal in the world. We're looking for volume. And that's another slight concern with Derek Henry. He carried the ball 303 times in the regular season this past year. Let's just go through a similar exercise that we just went through. Since 2011, we have 35 instances where a running back has carried the ball 280 or more times in a single season. That 280 number is arbitrary. But it's also a good bit less than where Henry was at in 2019. 30 of those players have next season data. And of those 30 players, only one guy, Marshawn Lynch from 2011 to 2012, only one player was able to increase his attempt numbers the following year. There are probably lots of reasons for this. Players get hurt, teams aren't as good. Because honestly, in order to see that much volume at running back, your team can't be trailing all the time. But whatever the reason is, we know that seeing a ton of volume year over year isn't an easy thing for a running back to achieve, just naturally. And that's the worry. I'll probably have Derek Henry ranked as an RB1 next year. I may end up thinking that he's overvalued as ADP in redraft, but this isn't me saying that Henry won't be a usable fantasy asset. It's me looking at the dynasty average draft position data of a 26-year-old running back with a really good situation in 2019 and stepping back and saying, this from an odds angle isn't likely going to be repeated. And since you can get a lot for Henry right now, it's not a bad idea to shop him. Especially if you've got him, but your team is in win-now mode.