 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Week eight in college football may not be quite as monumental as week seven But still some really really fun games on the docket for this weekend We're gonna break down those games and with Dr. Ed Feng get his read on those games and his favorite bets across week number eight here today This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here with Dr. Ed Feng to get his read on This week's game you can find Ed's work over at the powering comm and find Ed on Twitter at the power ranking Ed Week eight is coming in hot week seven though was a delight lived up to the hype. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. It was a lot of fun here in Ann Arbor where Michigan unexpectedly for me at least dominated that game and I wish it would have been a situation in which I trusted my numbers more but I thought the market was pretty fair in Michigan minus seven and They really dominated right? I mean, we were sitting there watching in the first half and Penn State was actually up 14 to 13 But there was one long run from Sean Clifford. Otherwise they did nothing on offense And the other score was a pick six off of a helmet and And then you go into the second half and you think it's got to regress to something a little bit closer And it just never did so Really good performance by Michigan in some sense. I I still think it's probably a little bit of an outlier performance, you know So we'll see we'll see I mean we'll see really what happens when Penn State plays Ohio State in a couple weeks Yeah, Michigan 41 to 17 the final score there and that game was a noon game So did you get a chance to watch the Tennessee, Alabama game that night given that the Michigan game was earlier on? Yeah, I got a chance to catch a bunch of the second half actually the family joined me for actually both of them Yeah, but that was it was pretty incredible going back and forth and I Was telling my children as well Knoxville might burn tonight of Tennessee Like dad, what why would you burn your city when you win game? He's like, well, I know doesn't seem very smart. Yeah They had fun Riot in Knoxville Amazing time Yeah, I mean like it was just I think that it was one of those games were like you went with pretty high expectations But you always like think through at least I do you think through the paths to like it being disappointing, you know Okay, like I've got these high expectations But maybe Alabama were underestimating them stuff like that they wind up rolling But then like it's like oh Tennessee's answering blow for blow. Yeah, not only was it like a legitimate win where like it was back and forth affair But it was entertaining the entire way like I know you you like defensive struggles and like those are fun, too they had their place and I think that they have their value as well But like having a back-and-forth affair like that where it's like the product of good offense rather than bad defense I I think it's really hard to top that Yeah, and especially late in the game. I thought Tennessee really Really got screwed by that penalty in the end zone. I thought that that was an offensive passing interference Couldn't really see it on the replay But I mean it didn't it didn't look particularly good and then to lose that fumble on the the match point and Recover from it. Yeah, kind of unbelievable. Yeah, really was but kudos to them I'm sure we talked about Tennessee down the line here in the very near future once again Really fun team really fun game and a fun slate on tap week 8 as well I'll break down what Ed's numbers are saying about this week's biggest games and more in just one second First a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We had our NFL week 7 first look up yesterday our full breakdown of week 7 is tomorrow and our player prop vetting preview We'll be up on Friday as long as JJ Zachary's and so get those by subscribing To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review As well the NBA season is now underway And it's the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's up to $1,000 back in free bets if your bet doesn't win Fandall has all your favorite bets from the money line to point spreads to player props You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay Plus with live betting you'll get updated odds on games that have already started the Fandall sportsbook app It's safe to cure and super easy to use so download Fandall today to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 make every moment more this season with Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and President select states first online real money wager only refund is it is non with throwable free bets that expired 14 days restrictions apply See terms at sportsbook dot Fandall comm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over the Fandall comm slash Rg and Arizona call 1 800 next step or text next up to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 888 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 109 with it in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or visit KS gambling help calm in Louisiana 1 877 770 stop in New York 1 877 8 open wire text open Y in Tennessee called the red line at 1 888 9 9 79 in Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler Dot net let's go to week number eight now here in college football before talk about the actual games I want to do a futures market check-in because we saw the Alabama loss in Alabama They'd had some tight games before that as well. So not to stay a one game blip there for them So let's talk about the futures market here right now Ohio State is the favorite to win the national championship at Fandall. They are plus 170 Georgia is plus 190 Alabama still lurking. They are four to one right now And when you look at these championship futures any team stand out to you as being undervalued right now Well, I look you point out that Georgia is the second most favorite because all the chatter in in arbor is about Oh Tennessee versus Michigan yada yada yada And let's not forget that Tennessee has to play Georgia is going to be at least a touchdown on a dog In that game. So so Georgia really still is a favorite to come out of there. I think Tennessee is still still the underdog Yeah, so for me, you know, not not too much value anywhere I mean, I think that that sounds just about right to me I don't don't have any precise calculations on that but I mean clearly those three teams are still gonna be there Alabama controls on destiny and I guess I mean, I guess they just can't slip up against, you know, pretty tough division. So, yeah, we will see We will see what happens, but But yeah, it seems just about right to me Yeah, Tennessee 20 to 1 right now at Fandall Sportsbook Michigan 16 to 1 Clemson is 12 to 1 so some big games this weekend. Let's up at that Clemson game They got Syracuse this week Syracuse 13 and a half point dog a total is 49 and a half and we talked about Syracuse last week and Pretty skeptical of them entering that game and they didn't blow the doors off NC State But like they did they did cover they did get a win there Did they do enough in that game Ed to convince you that they're capable of covering a 13 and a half point spread against Clemson? No, not really. I mean, so I talked last week about North Carolina State plus three and a half and And and that didn't win but did get a little bit closing line movement because it closed at three It did, you know, I was really surprised how well Syracuse was able to move the ball against a really good North Carolina State defense That's really what happened there. They had a fifty two point seven percent success rate on offense and Yeah, you know Syracuse offense looks pretty good. They're 19th when I look at my justice success rate They're not quite as good on defense. They are 49th Am I convinced about Syracuse? No, not really I mean, it was it was kind of one game against the North Carolina State team and maybe I mean, obviously North Carolina State didn't have their quarterback I tried to argue that that didn't matter so much. Maybe it does. Maybe I was wrong about that You know only time will tell And you know and when you're talking about Clemson, I still think they're like, you know When you look Clemson was a 14 point favorite earlier. It's 13 and a half now when you have Clemson as a 14 point favorite against You know a respectable division opponent I think you are making the assumption that Clemson is going back to the Clemson of three years ago And I'm not sure that that is true as well either. Um, you know when they're they're the offenses You know, they're 45th when when I look at adjusted success rates 74th In passing. So yeah, they had some success. Sure, but Though those aren't, you know, that's not reminding anyone of the Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson days Um, the defense has been better. Um, you know, they're up. They're up to 19th when I look at adjusted success rate When um, columnist was on we talked about I asked them how much they missed Brent Venables And he said, well, I think Brent Venables misses Clemson And and that turned out probably be the more accurate statement with just the the free fall that Oklahoma has been in over the last month so Yeah, I don't know. I I'm um I I think there's probably I would lean so my number has to have uh Clemson by about 10 So that suggests some value on Syracuse And I think it is difficult for a team to cover two touchdowns when the total is in the high 40s So is there value on Syracuse? Uh, probably, um, I'm not too interested in it just because of I think there's Just so many question marks about both these teams. I really don't have a read on where Either one of them is going to head in the next couple weeks or for the remainder of the season So probably to stay away from me. Yeah, I think that for me I've had a lot of this year where I've seen value in my numbers but had no interest in betting in I think it seems it's been a lot of situations where it's been teams I can't get a firm handle on um, like, you know, and I think that Potentially Syracuse can be one of those teams. I'm going back to Oklahoma really fast Because they'll kindly wrote a piece about how Sports folks couldn't catch up to how bad Oklahoma was And I was like, you know, I was like, oh, yeah, that's kind of funny to think about but I then thought about your model That has like the more aggressive updates for recent data Do you think that better equips you to like handle a situation where a team kind of seems to be In what you deem to be like a free fall for them? No, I mean my model hasn't been able to catch up to michigan state Yeah and Yeah, no, I don't know I I think So when when you kind of tune the parameters of my model you you're kind of making a guess on on average how How hard you should move these teams after results and you're going to be too low on some teams And you're going to be too high on others and the art of it is to figure out when that is the case um You know, I'm more familiar with michigan state. Um, I actually think the model probably has it about right I mean, I think the marks have gone pretty hard against them and And while I think they suck, I don't I'm not sure that they suck that bad. Yeah And we'll obviously see um in there and uh in michigan's next game here in n arbor, but um So, yeah, it's it's tough to know. Yeah, for sure Well, syracuse the clumps in the stay away for ad Let's dive now into all miss at lsu where we've got lsu is a one and a half point favorite total is 68 and a half It was 66 and a half yesterday now at 68 and a half So this movement towards the over there all miss Seven and oh, but now facing lsu in baton rouge pretty tough spot there Who do you have winning this game? Yeah, I mean, I'm pretty close to the market here. I have lsu by about a point and Still happy that they beat florida outright. So Uh, that was one of the the best that I liked last week. Um The thing that interests me in this game is the total, right? So you sent me the email about talking about this game. It was 66 and a half yesterday and now it's up to 68 and a half My model says about 59 I think there's I I think I would lean towards the under but you know almost is definitely an up-tempo team that is Under laying kiffin always going to be better on offense than they are in defense right now. They're eighth In my adjusted success rate. They're better with brushing their seventh in the nation. Um, they have a quarterback in jackson tart That's been a running threat so They want to play up tempo there, you know, and and they're facing enough lsu defense that has that has been pretty good Over the course of the season not against tennessee, but otherwise been pretty good so And I do think lsu can score too against an Ole Miss defense that that doesn't look particularly good. Um in my numbers so But still, you know, that's a pretty big gap. It's like a nine-point gap and um Yeah, be interested to see where the total goes in this game. Um, I mean, I'm staying away from I'm I would probably lean towards Towards the under there, especially that uh is continuing to get that high But but I do see where points come from in this game Yeah, uh 68 and a half right now I think that it would be wise to keep an eye on that given that it has moved already Towards the over and maybe its situation where if it keeps on rising You circle back later on this week. It's a minus one 10 both ways So it's possible it's it's settled in at 68 and a half and it might not be Rising anymore, but if you agree that's reed and what his model is saying under could be the play there So keep an eye on that keep an eye on where the if it keeps moving. Maybe you want to dive into that one eventually, but um I think that the under does make a lot of sense there, especially if you are about nine points below where that's at Let's swing out to the pack 12 right now and talk about ucla at oregon Oregon six and a half point favorite here total is 69 and a half in this one and we talked about ucla quite a bit and They've pulled through in some really tough matchups. They've had impressive wins, but oregon They've been on a roll ever since that auburn game. So or the georgia game. I should say uh, how do you see this one playing out? Yeah, my number is like oregon by about a touchdown It sees two really good teams on offense Oregon is fifth when I look at my adjusted success rate and their success rate was actually pretty good against georgia It looks like they were able to dink and dunk and and kind of move the ball But uh, you know, obviously that didn't show much I show up much on the scoreboard But you know no explosive plays at all. So and and they've been pretty good since then. Um, ucla has also been, uh, Pretty amazing on on on offense as well over the course of the season. They're six in my adjusted success rate And then you know at this point in the season, you know I still tend to rely on both the success rate and the yards per play Adjusted for opponent and both these defenses are better When I look at adjusted yards per play. So they they look better by yards per play, which means Okay, so maybe they're not that good of a defense at stopping Opponents, but they've been able to eliminate to at least reduce the effect of big plays We expect the the kind of success rate numbers to be better. Um So that would suggest that these defenses are worse Uh, than than what they look like in yards per play. So, uh, it could be a lot of points in this game And uh, it should be a fun one out west 69 and a half's a big number. I'm guessing you're staying away from that based on your read on that Yeah, I mean my total is like 67. So it's not too far off that it probably should be just a little bit higher because uh, uh, because of what the success rate says about the defense. So, um Yeah, but Oregon by about touchdown so, well, uh Yeah, I mean, I think the market is pretty sharp on this one. So pretty good markets across the board and our three big games Let's open up the board now and talk about other games in week eight where you're seeing value What are you seeing that you like right now for week eight? Yeah, so the one game which I like is uh, it's probably Texas A&M minus three at South Carolina So this one's kind of interesting to me Uh, well, first of all, we have Haynes King who the Texas A&M quarterback who Uh has maybe the most peculiarly throwing throwing motion of any quarterback that has made it to the Made it to the college level But you know, he was the starter Had a terrible game against ab state lost job max johnson got hurt Haynes king is back and he got hurt at the end of the Alabama game. It looks like he's gonna play Um, it looks like there was a foot injury, but it looks like he will play And you know, it's one of these things where uh earlier this season I talked maybe not on this show but but I I definitely my number suggested that the The offense was awful and the defense was pretty good making them an under team and Since uh, so that was before the Mississippi State game since then the defense has gotten significantly better Um in in the last two games, uh, obviously it helps that they didn't have to face bryce young in that game against xan against alabama but um, so So they they've been better and I I just think there's a significant talent gap here between what's going on on texas a&m Uh compared to south carolina. I mean, this was a program that was really bad in the last few years of Will must champ in 2019 and 2020 they're bringing chain beam last year who, uh You know had a pretty good turnaround at seven and six and you expected Better because they they brought in spencer rather the quarterback Um, you know, the offense has looked again. It's one of these situations where they've looked better by yards per play than success rate so the 39th In terms of yards per play by my metrics after scheduled adjustments. They are 64th and success rate Again, the latter is probably going to be closer to the truth And then you know their their defense is uh is is solid, but It's again another unit that's a lot better by yards per play 30 seconds than they are by success rate 108 So and south carolina was a defense that was good last year and they brought a lot of their talent back so The success rates number suggests that they're they're not as good I just think there's a big talent difference. My primary model likes texas a&m by six and um But a couple of other models that I look at uh market model where I'm looking at what the market has said this year And also only data from the current season Both of those Suggest that texas a&m should win by at least four here And the data from this year is accounting for the fact that their offense is really struggled Which I think makes it even potentially more important that you're seeing value there, too Right and and it also accounts for south carolina and the fact that they've played some pretty terrible teams outside of the sec right so it accounts for all that and that also says that texas a&m minus three is a good bet a lot of places have gotten off of three already so I'd be like texas a&m minus three Obviously like it a little bit less at three and a half But my model says six and I think there's not either. Yeah, it is currently three at fandall sportsbook minus one ten On the minus three right there. Uh, I think it was minus one or four three and a half at some other books so you could look around try to get that three somewhere but um It is right now three at fandall sportsbook again minus one ten on that one That's all we got here for week number eight again pretty fun slate night Maybe not the same firepower as last week, but still some pretty fun games We'll see how these things play out across the week add plenty of stuff for you going on though Across the power rank and across the football analytics show. What is going on this week there? Right at parker fleming on the podcast. He's been a guest on on this show as well. He's a quantitative college football analyst Uh, he's been doing a lot of good work for the for the hammer as well So yeah, we talked a lot more about his models talked about some of the key games this week And uh, yeah, just check that out at the football analytics show wherever you're podcast And then uh, still working on my newsletter over at the power rank dot com Uh, seven nuggets saturday is full of tips and bets and news and and humor Uh, so check that out at the power rank dot com Awesome and check out add on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim saunders You can also make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread on your podcast platform of choice And also you can find these up on the fan dual youtube page After they're posted over there as well If you got any questions for us again, uh, check me out on twitter at jim saunders back once again tomorrow with ryan williams breaking down nfl week number seven player prop show coming up on friday with jj Zacharyse and we'll talk to you all then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network