 No better person to talk about this way than Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle Tim. How are you doing? Good. Thanks for having me on again. Absolutely. We're happy to have you. What are we taking a look at today? You got a lot, huh? Yeah, we got a lot actually There's a chart for I sent you another chart. I got that one. Yep. Charter. Okay. Yep that chart eight takes in place of chart four perfect Sorry, I'll be I'll skip chart one. This is kind of like a I've been showing this chart probably for the last month or better But it's the summation index again. We got a a bullish Well bullish confirmation of an intermediate term trend when this NYSE summation that falls below minus 700 Which it did back in October 27th and within two months it should rally to plus 1,000 and on December 27th exactly two months. It did have a plus 1,000 that predicts the next 12 months in general It could be longer than general should be an uptrend that didn't count You know There'll be some minor declines along the way and what I'm looking at today is is one of those minor declines So let's kind of look at that. What's going on? page or for a chart to And this is the daily SPX TLT ratio and So that's a segment down from the top the RSI is a 10-day RSI instead of 12 or a 14-day RSI just seems to work better And yes, they put it in my market letter This gets up around 70 normally you get short-term highs all those blue lines across there Our times when the RSI for this ratio got above we got at 30 or 70 plus 70 or higher And yesterday after I forgot was like 68 point something or almost 69 So that was kind of a worrisome sign even though the market could have pushed her a little bit more There's kind of a worrisome sign that were due for some sort of Correction and obviously that day that warmed that in my market letter, but I don't think this is anything Really to fret about and this the reason why if you look on Chart number three And you funny you bought the Vicks up. So that's what I'm what are we gonna be kind of looking at here? Acceleration basically the market I Know there's different ways at top but bottoms are a lot easier to pick than tops and this what's going on right now It's probably a short-term bottom. Is it today? You know, it's a good chance could be today But it's not a long-term bottom. This is short-term bottom And what I do is measure the acceleration of the Vicks So there's different ways of Panic panic only comes at bottoms. You don't get panic. You don't have a bottom So what you really want to see right off the bat is panic in the market and we get you measure with with the ticks You can measure with the trend. That's t-r-i-n or you can measure with the Vicks I'm sure there's some other indicators That also panic but I like those three indicators to look at panic and it only Panic only forms of bottoms. So Do we have panic in the market right now? according to the Vicks I Looked at the acceleration of the Vicks how fast that Vicks moves and so I got an RSI hooked up to it I have a percent volume or percent Bollinger Band hooked up to it Which is the second window up from the bottom and I have a rate of change and it's a two-period rate of change and This is our an hourly chart. So it's a short-term chart So we did get a when I made this chart a couple hours ago. The RSI is Almost 90 so anything above 70 showing it does show that the Vicks Was the accelerating at an usually high rate and all those times in the past That's those red lines across the chart at other times when the Vicks accelerated really fast with the Vicks Or the RSI 10 or the 14-period RSI for the Vicks got above 70 and also the percent Bollinger Band did get above 1.25 Today so we got a lot of panic in the Vicks and So this is an hourly chart. So it predicts that we'll probably have some sort of short-term low Let's go look at chart number eight. Yes That's that one to replace this chart number four. This is kind of a similar indicator But it's on the daily time frame. So you're looking at a daily Acceleration of the Vicks and you're looking at an hourly several Acceleration of the Vicks so the bottom window is the RSI 14 for the Vicks and has to get above 70 with 70.44 and I did this chart and The next chart above is rate of change is two periods on a daily part. It has to be above I think 30 it was actually 29.62 close enough And the next higher window is percent volume or percent excuse me percent Bollinger Band and it has to be above one And when it is a chart it was 1.37, but you only need two of the three indicators To reach bullish levels suggesting that you're near a short-term low Well, we actually had three of them there the RSI they were to do period rate of change and the percent Bollinger Band so This is probably and this is expiration week. Normally you get Normally expiration week the week before expiration week you get the weird moves It's kind of unusual to get a weird move during the expiration week, but I think we're getting it here So I do think we're probably at a short-term low But it's not on the bigger time frame If we end up down around 2% today 1.82 is put as we're talking If you get around 2% Declines normally come in clusters So what that means if the market does bounce here, which we think it will because it is till expiration week And we've had a minimal amount of get back to the gap area if not get back to yesterday's high and I think That may be a worthwhile top. I'm thinking back on January 31st, we had a selling climax at around the 482 area and I was thinking we're going to see that test of that selling climax Which is again? January 31st at some point probably this month, but I don't think you're going to do it this week You may do it before the month is out so later in the month, but our short-term basis here I think the market's probably at a short-term low and we may bounce possibly to yesterday's high and that much more and Then we'll probably build some sort of a top pattern and then and take a shot back down to 42 area and And there we'll probably find a base and start rallying again. So I don't think we're at a long-term high here, I think we're more of a Big consolidation where that consolidation is basically a I think I added up to around 4% Trading range that may be developing here where yesterday's highs probably resistance and the January 31st low is probably support Which is about 482 so also around the 5,000 4,000 there's round numbers, but we're around that 5,000 level so I'm thinking we're gonna have some back and forth around Perfect. Yeah, here to the music. Yeah, Tim. Please hang right there folks. We'll be right back with Tim ward of the oracle All right, welcome back folks This is Jacob Schup fill in in for Tom O'Brien, and we are live with Tim or of the oracle Tim are you still with us? Yep, I'm right here Fantastic, so we were just looking at eight which was the replacement for four. That was the VIX so Do you have anything else say on this one or do we need to move the chart? Do you have any questions? I'm just what I don't know is it the acceleration of the VIX and that's panic and That's what I'm trying to point out here We got enough panic in the market at least on a certain basis about the producer rally that may rally into Friday or something So but I think the bigger trend that we're starting a trading range for again That would be right above that 5,000 level down to 482 or not by 500 level 50 502 on the SPY's in the sport around 482 Yeah, I think we may bounce around in that area for a while I don't know how long but that does not in the bull market. I think the bull market I think we still in general have a 10% more to go before the year is out to the upside. So This is not You know at the time to be short other than a trade back down to 482 so Anyhow, do you have any questions or no and honestly Tim? That's why I love filling in on days that you're here because you explain things just so simply, right? I mean, it's complex stuff, you know, but I mean totally I mean that that was all pretty concise. So Okay, well, we'll see if it works out My opinion for right now. We'll see how it works out. Sure But I don't think there's really nothing serious here You know that the serious thing would be if we didn't see any panics in in anything And you know, we got a trend right now 1.25 has been a lot higher today than that But you know, it's I like to see it higher and that may come on a close. I don't know but anything above 1.2 Down day is it leaves a bullet if we had a big down day the trend was say point eight or point seven That'd be a sign of trouble But that would probably mean we're going to go down until that trend starts to you know gets above 1.2 So anyhow, it's to me. I think we're we're okay You know market can prove me wrong for sure, but we can move on or we can discuss this more Yeah, why don't we check out we have on chart five currently unless if there's any questions, too You have for Tim guys in the den go ahead and message them to me and I can also bring them up to him as well Just throwing that out there for everyone and we'll wait for those to come in But we can move to chart five in the meantime if you're all right with that Tim Yep, okay Dev Actually, this is an inflation deflation ratio of Martin Pring bought this indicator I don't know how long it's been out that he's the inventor of this and well actually I use I don't know if he never used it this way I use it, but I use it with an RSI and this is the I think the daily sure Yeah, this is a daily. I'm also going to show a weekly time frame, too But you know that the second window down from the top is then the daily inflation deflation ratio in the top window Is the RSI for this ratio and works the same way but moves any indicator moves too fast you quick one direction Usually you're at Most time either higher or low on this case. I took the RSI anything below 30 on this ratio So when this ratio really dives down is when you get the signals in the bottom window is Gdx next window up to the XAU when we actually got a signal last week on this indicator and So even though we're down 5% today, they're about This indicator can be off a little bit. You're like a week or so So I don't think we're starting a big decline here But since the daily inflation deflation ratio is bullish and it was a bullish late last week, I think we're still okay because Especially with the Gdx a lot of times Gdx trolls a lot of these indicators, but if you flip to chart 6 This is the the weekly inflation deflation ratio and it's also producing a signal. It's pretty rare To get the daily and the weekly to have signals at the same time And this is one of those times that's doing it and this chart goes back to 2016 and shows all the times the RSI of the inflation deflation ratio getting below 30 and turning up which it did last week and And even though we're all 5% I think there's just kind of a shakeout going on here So I don't think this is a starter decline I think we're pretty much ending of a decline and it works pretty well It also works when the RSI gets above 70 on this ratio Especially on a weekly time frame, which is the red lines across there you get some sort of a high and So I think we got we had last time we got a signal was in October Now we're getting another one and pretty much close to the same level even though we're down a little bit from it matter of fact this If you look at Gdx really haven't changed much from last August things just Going sideways here and it's still generating bullish signals It was generating very signals going sideways. That'd be a problem But we're not we're generating the bullish signals. So I'm still thinking we're probably basing in here And if you flip to chart 7 Yes, and everyone's asking about the Gdx as well in the dent to so Okay, yeah, this this is kind of unusual. I should probably took this chart back But we're down. I don't know why I did this chart around 5% or better And both those indicators normally when you get above minus 10, which we did a couple of days ago On the way out of the bottom one August you'd find it the bottom one was Gdx Updown volume with an 18-day average next window up as Gdx advanced decline with an 18-day average and even though the Gdx has moved down this indicators moved up and So there's a positive divergence going on But the rally really doesn't get going until this both indicators or at least one of them gets above minus 10 and stays above minus 10 What is unusually here these two indicators are not really backing off much Blow minus 10 even though we're off 5% today. So I'm thinking it's just it's kind of a shakeout thing going on I don't think On the bigger time frames. This is like it's going to continue down. I'm thinking especially with You know if the weekly was more near a cell signal than a bi-signal I think that'd be worrisome, but that's the opposite. We got the daily and the weekly both the generating bi-signal We're still down 5% today, but that kind of What those two indicators the RSI probably today will be even lower than it was a couple of days ago Take on that. Yeah, this is probably still low. So How low is low where's the thing ending and you know, I assume would be right around in this vicinity because I'm not seeing a big I see a positive divergence, especially on this indicator on Chart 7 as the market moved down this indicator was going up showing that Actually the advance the client is getting stronger and they actually up down volume is getting stronger So there must be something in gdx one stock that's doing most of the damage and they're probably was telling me So we'll have to wait and see. Yeah, and really that was gonna be my my question too You know when we've been speaking it's that's what we kind of talk about right the gdx is just not moving a lot It's not it doesn't have a lot of action and then you know today We do have a down move been something about 5% on on some volume, right and I was gonna ask what would Exist essentially that could indicate that this is actually a bullish signal, but you actually did answer that so thank you Tim You're right. Absolutely. Thank you so much for coming on. We enjoy it every time Guys, that is Tim or of the order Oracle. That is word hyphen Oracle comm go give it a check out Tim. Thank you so much for joining us today All right. I'll see you winter. See you Thursday. See you Thursday Tim. Okay folks. Stay tuned. We'll be right back