 hello everyone excuse me hello everyone welcome to options with dog streaming live daily on book map discord and the book map YouTube channel at 1 30 p.m. Eastern time before I get started I need to go through the disclosures general disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations risk disclosure training futures equities and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results the focus of my presentation and the focus of the options dash dog chat channel and discord is options order flow the impact of options markets on stocks and futures and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions changed from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as the directional bias and the second step in my process is execution and I look at real-time order flow and book map and real-time market maker hedging flow and spot gamma hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits and when I talk about setups today I will be talking about setups in an underlying asset and setups can be taken with futures shares of stock or options again my analysis is based on the options market order flow and hedging flow and setups can be taken with any number of instruments questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the options dash dog chat channel and discord as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments and hello Bartos glad you're here welcome and so sorry says FOMC minutes coming out soon yeah exactly so I will I'll go up to that point and then we'll take a look at the my live market so my agenda for today what I want to talk about news economic data events and earnings for today as well as the rest of the week then I'll go through my positional analysis then I want to review some setups from this morning and then again at 2 p.m. we'll switch over to live market and watch that as the FOMC minutes come out alright so today news Vicks expiration was this morning and then of course again FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. top of the hour today and then Friday is the August monthly options expiration alright let me get started with positional analysis go back to the S&P 500 so this is the ES futures in book map before I take a closer look at this chart I'm going to take a look at a higher time frame this is SPX in a thinkorswim 30-day one-hour chart and the downtrend that began a couple of weeks ago continues let me point out the levels on this chart first of all the lower and upper weekly expected move shown with the dash purple lines and the SPX is approaching that level and that's just above the 4400 level that I'll talk about in just a minute so that is the weekly expected move so far SPX is still trading within that range but heading lower and then note the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move let me zoom in on this chart just a little bit so we can get a better view of price action so we know that as SPX has been trending lower and I've pointed out the daily and weekly expected moves based on the options market so far SPX is trading above the lower daily expected move and the lower weekly expected move let me point out some spot gamma levels on this chart so the first really important level the key daily level is the put wall at 4400 that's the spot gamma proprietary these are all spot gamma proprietary levels this is spot gamma's put wall which is a strike with a large net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support and note the 4450 level did act as support for several days and now today has acted as resistance and we'll take a closer look at that in a one-day chart in just a moment so there's the 4450 level that is not a key daily level but that is very important level the next level up is the 4500 level and that is the absolute gamma strike as well as the volatility trigger the absolute gamma strike is the strike with the largest absolute gamma positive and negative and then the volatility trigger is the gamma flip level spot gamma flip level below that level market makers position on the gamma curve is negative in a negative gamma environment market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to enhance or increase volatility and that on this portion of the gamma curve traders are long puts market makers are short puts and again they have to sell futures as price decreases and applied volatility increases to hedge their delta exposure and we'll take a look at a the Vana model in just a moment that is a graphical representation of that and then finally the call wall at 4600 that is the strike with a largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as resistance and that is not not in play right now all right so those are the SPX levels the key daily levels 4400 4500 4600 4400 being the potential floor 4600 the potential ceiling and the also the 4450 level being very important acting as support and now resistance so let's take a look at that let's go to a one-day one-minute chart for SPX you zoom in on this so this is the 4550 level right there and initially acted as resistance almost to the tick this morning I posted this setup in discord this morning just after 10 a.m. and there was a hero divergence that we'll talk about in just a minute that set that up and there were two other short setups at just below 40 4450 until the last one finally took and broke below broke below I believe it was the spy 4443 we'll take a take a look at that in just a moment in fact let's do that now so the key point here is the 4450 level acting as resistance and the next levels below again are the lower daily expected move lower weekly expected move and the put wall at 4400 all right let's take a look at bookmap now so yeah that was the 44443 spy level so what I'm looking at on my bookmap chart I have my own cloud notes and I have the SPX levels there note there is a price difference between ES and SPX that changes a little bit every day so I mark these I actually put this information in a spreadsheet and this applies to all of the applies to all of the SPX levels this relationship the ES to SPX relationship remains the same it's right around 15 and a half or 16 today the last time I checked so in between again 15 and a half and 16 so there the there's the 4450 level that acted as resistance it was noted as resistance and the spot gamma AM founders note and set up three very nice shorts one for about 10 points and a couple for one for a little bit less and then this one all the way down to spy 441 all right we'll talk about setups more in a few minutes so those are the key levels today again the most important being the 4450 resistance level all right let's take a look at NASDAQ before I do take a closer look at this chart I want to take a look at first of all a QQQ chart and this is the 367 volatility trigger and actually before I do this I forgot to mention my bad shifts in levels for the SB 500 let's just go back to the let's go back to book map for the SB 500 sorry about this alright shifts in levels for SPX only the volatility trigger actually shifted slightly higher from 4485 to 4500 excuse me on the other hand for spy there were several all the key daily levels shifted mostly lower so for spy the volatility trigger shifted lower the put wall shifted lower to 440 the call wall actually shifted higher to 460 so that is not as significant that is kind of out of range out of play and then the absolute gamma strike shifted lower as well so for spy volatility trigger put wall and absolute gamma strike all shifted lower so I definitely interpreted that as bearish alright let's get back to NASDAQ now sorry about that I forgot to mention that alright so let's get back to our QQQ chart and the key point here is this 367 volatility trigger that roughly not exactly did act as resistance three times not quite as clear as the SPX 4450 for the S&P 500 and then the other levels in play here this is the QQQ put wall at 360 367 oops 365 I'm sorry the volatility trigger 367 and the put wall at 365 alright let's take a look at an NDX chart to see the levels in play for NDX so here is the NDX chart for today a one-day chart volatility trigger at 15,090 so NDX trading below its volatility trigger all right let's go to book map alright so here's the 367 QQQ 367 volatility trigger acting more or less as resistance along with this liquidity up at the 145 level sorry about that just below the NQ 150 level and note NQ trading down towards its lower daily expected move whoops wrong tool lower daily expected move shown with the dash blue line alright so those levels in play for for the SP 500 NASDAQ shifts and levels for NDX the absolute gamma strike did shift lower from 15 475 down to 15,000 and for QQQ the volatility trigger did shift lower to 367 that's the level again acting as resistance and then the call wall shifted up to 400 and that happened on Monday as well I don't view that as it as significant really at so far so far out of range out of play when QQQ is trading right at its put wall at 365 all right let's take a look at some other data real quick and then we'll talk about setups before the before the data or the FMC minutes release alright so first of all let's take a look at let's take a look at the gamma notional this is market makers position on the gamma curve for SPX spy NDX and QQQ and I normally don't look at NDX it doesn't change very much but the others do change so first of all note that all are negative market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning beginning of the day was negative again meaning traders are long puts market makers are short puts and they have to hedge in the direction of price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to enhance or increase volatility and these numbers are pretty negative especially for spy at around 1.8 billion negative and these numbers all did decrease from yesterday became more negative so there was a pretty significant shift for SPX for example from negative 245 yesterday to minus 839 spy became much more negative as well as QQQ so let's take a look at the Vanna model real quick to see what that means so this is the Vanna model we'll start with SPX what this chart is showing is market makers delta notional on the vertical axis and how that changes with price shown on the horizontal axis there are two curves on this chart the light gray curve is showing how market makers delta notional changes with delta notional changes with changes in price only and then the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation that's showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and applied volatility and that change in delta with a change in applied volatility is the Vanna effect that's a second order Greek so let's see where SPX is trading right now so right around 4432 so that's right around here so this is on the negative gamma portion of this curve so this is showing if price increases and imply volatility decreases market makers can buy back their short futures and that can fuel a rally so for example in 10 minutes if the FMC minutes are interpreted as bullish that could lead to well we'll take a look at VIX see what it's doing and that could spark a rally fueled by this put Vanna on the other hand if price decreases and implied volatility increases market makers will need to continue to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure alright so that is the so again we're anticipating larger movements in this negative gamma environment and this Vanna model is showing it's just a graphical illustration of why or how that may happen let's take a look at SPI all of these curves are typical of a negative gamma environment so right now SPI is trading right around 442 and a half so right around here also on the negative gamma portion pretty much same situation as SPX put Vanna fuel for a rally a move higher or negative gamma as put if price decreases imply volatility increases those puts will gain value and market makers will have to sell futures and then we'll take a look at QQQ and QQQ is trading right around its put wall at 365 so similar situation for QQQ alright let's take a look at some setups this morning we have just a few minutes left I'm gonna start with the SMB 500 what this chart is showing is price for SPX with a white line the purple line is the hero signal that's hedging impact real-time options this is available to spot gamma subscribers and this is showing options trades and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal for SPX SPI XSP and ES futures so if you trade any form of the SAP 500 and you want to use hero this is the signal that you want to use spot gamma does provide the signals for the individual components and this is this is typically what I use so let's zoom in on this I'm gonna zoom in on the morning so this is the setup that I posted let me just draw a line here so this is the 4450 level right here and when I posted this morning was this divergent setup so hero as price is approaching that 4450 level traders start taking negative delta positions as price approaches that level and then when price gets close to that level it starts to reverse lower making for a very nice divergent setup here's the second divergent setup and this one was not as clear but hero was still making lower highs so three setups the first one was definitely the most clear again that's the one that I posted in discord and let's go take a look at that and book map all right Truman asked how do you know it is the negative gamma portion or positive area of curve the Vana curve so the the area that I was showing shows that and that what I'm calling the negative gamma or a portion of the curve showing that as price decreases implied market makers delta notional increase that that portion of the curve sloping up from right to left that showing that market makers delta notional will increase as price decreases and implied volatility increases so I know that that is market makers position that's the same as market makers negative gamma position they have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure and that's why because they're delta notional is increasing as implied volatility decreases well let's zoom in a bit right give me just a moment to adjust this chart so we can take a closer look so here's the first setup note this shift in order flow these green dots are showing these are marked by minus cell when there's a green dot they're more aggressive buyers than sellers then that shifts to negative shown by the magenta dots there are more sellers than buyers as traders are taking negative delta positions and price starts to move lower note that there were some larger traders in here with iceberg orders selling sell iceberg orders the show here with these icons and numbers also by this falling light blue line so that's the first setup the order flow for the second setup was not as clear or easy to read and the third was I think maybe a little bit easier to read this final sweep so you know this 4450 has acted as resistance twice this final sweep up to that level and aggressive sellers start to come in and that's the one that breaks the 443 level all right hands K ask put wall does it mean that the price goes lower after hitting that level well so for a couple of things so first of all spot gammas stats show that I think I believe their stats show that price will trade higher after that level I would have to go back and review the stats but they call it it's should act as support the put wall especially for SPX I think all the stats are based on SPX so that level statistically does act as support with price trading higher if excuse me if price breaks lower then price could accelerate lower if price breaks lower and holds lower price could accelerate lower as put start to dominate below that level excuse me scratchy throat all right we've got about a minute let's let's just hold on here we'll hold to the SPX I want to take a look at take a quick look at NASDAQ hero signal much stronger today so if if there's not much happening we'll take a look at this setups for NASDAQ today mostly bullish based on hero in the morning let's go back to S&P 500 so we can watch what options traders are doing so just quick prep they have been taking positive delta positions since about 1215 and helping to support about a bounce around 1130 right the minutes are out and we'll watch this for just a moment let me open up open up CNBC and see if they have any headlines let's take a look at VIX and see what the see what implied volatility is doing today so so far for the entire day VIX is down slightly zoom in on this just a little bit so VIX made a quick a sharp move lower and now moving higher check the reaction for SPX right so yes definitely moving lower I don't I don't see any headlines on CNBC Steve Leesman is talking must FMC minutes must have been hawkish let's see what options traders are doing and definitely joining the move lower so note that options traders started stop taking positive delta positions started taking negative delta positions and this is right around 148 so a few minutes before the release all right so N7 lead farmer says it's on top the top bar of CNBC said more hikes could be in store all right so options traders were taking negative delta positions a few minutes before the before the release looks like they were on the right side of the trade just a little pause at the spy 442 level before moving lower than a test of the SPX 4425 level that was noted as a support level and price continues lower now it looks like some large traders selling with iceberg orders shown by the falling light blue line these are small small trades 171 contracts 40 contracts very small for the SP 500 all right let's see what options traders are doing now so they're still taking negative delta positions so what they are doing they have stopped buying calls note this rising orange line shows traders buying calls they stopped right at that peak in price weren't doing much with puts maybe selling a few puts and they started buying puts a few minutes before they stopped buying calls so they started buying puts that shown by the falling blue line so very interesting a little bit of a lead there with the with the hero signal watch if watching options traders closely here would have given a a good leading indicator to look for short let's go back to book map all right so traders started buying puts somewhere around here and they stopped selling calls somewhere around here and then price broke lower after the release of the minutes all right so rob's 20 ask how does Tesla look let's take a look at Tesla and after an initial run up Tesla has been a good short today we can take a look at hero for Tesla and see what options traders have been doing let's go back to the total signal so options traders continue to take negative delta positions the SP 500 let's take a look at Tesla so here Tesla there was a very nice divergence set up this morning options traders taking negative delta positions and then price starts to move lower it looks like that took about maybe 30 minutes yeah Truman says Tesla was an amazing divergence play so there it is nice divergent short I've got that marked on on my chart let's go back to book map options trader taking negative delta positions trend break recheck price moves lower 230 is the put wall let's take a look at NASDAQ see what's going on there so this morning options trades hedging flow definitely bullish leading to nice setups deep pullbacks long for long entries all right let's see what's going on now so starting about 12 o'clock a trader's got aggressive started taking positive delta positions was in on this see what they were doing so they started buying calls more aggressively this year by the rising orange line that worked out of the morning but not so much right now so just about the same time that options traders started taking negative delta positions in the SP 500 trader started taking negative delta positions in NASDAQ let's go back to book map so it looks like price broke below the 365 put wall so good for about a 50 point move in NASDAQ so far 15,000 50 to 15,000 down toward the lower daily expected move back to the SB 500 see what options traders are doing so it looks like now some larger traders are coming in with buy iceberg orders not really these are small 81 contracts that's not significant for the SB 500 let's go back to hero and see what options traders are doing our hero continues to make a series of lower highs but maybe slowing down a little bit let's just take a look at a right now I'm on the one day look back period let's just change this and see if this gives us any clarity back to a 30 minute look back period so I'm only looking at the last 30 minutes of data rather than the entire day it's going to look at book map alright so maybe finding support at the spy 441 level that acted a support earlier today let's just scan through some stocks AMD was a good short this morning let's take a look at hero I'm gonna go back to the one day look back period so I'm looking at all the data cumulative for the entire day look at AMD zoom in just a bit so AMD hero moving lower pretty much from the open setting up nice pullback shorts let's go take a look at book map and note also the negative order flow all the magenta volume dots showing aggressive sellers all day maybe Microsoft that was it looked like a long this morning long set up this morning let's go take a look at hero long set up this morning until about 1130 note this larger block trade comes in shown by the vertical line there and it looks like calls were definitely driving today so call buyers moving Microsoft up until about 1130 then a large trade or large institutional trade comes in sells a bunch of calls other traders start selling their calls and price moves lower so that was about 1130 let's go take a look at book map so long up until then as traders bought calls shown by the rising orange line traders buying calls when traders buy calls market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure again they want to remain delta neutral and then that drops off pretty quickly as some large institution comes in sells a bunch of calls price moves lower back to book map so here's the long set up let's just go to use this tool long set up this morning pullbacks back to VWAP trend break and price moves lower as traders were selling calls back to Tesla to the total signal take a look at Tesla then in seven lead farmer says I'm sorry someone said oh in seven lead farmer vix dropping let's take a quick look at Tesla so that yeah there's that divergent setup we already looked at that so let's go back to the S&P 500 so options traders have started taking positive delta positions now so just a couple minutes ago I said that activity seems to be leveling off so now they have started they stopped selling started taking negative stopped taking negative delta positions started taking positive delta positions let's go back to the go back to book map yes and Hans K asked does Netflix have any large support areas that I don't know I don't have Netflix in book map in just a minute we can take a look at Netflix and hero but I don't have it in in book map all right so it looks like this 441 level did act as support and in seven lead farmer says he'd love a test of VWAP on spy here let's just go take a look at spy so there you go heading right up to VWAP that is shown by the show by this light blue line spy looks pretty stretched here let's see what happens note the smaller volume dots spy testing VWAP again that light blue line is VWAP and precision charts futures trading as how much is the delay right now that I don't know there may be I suspect maybe about a 15 or 20 second delay between what I'm saying what I'm showing and what what you're seeing on YouTube so it it's certainly not exactly real time in in YouTube and and discord I don't know there may not be the same same lag but there definitely is a few seconds all right so Truman asked how does Vicks expiration affect the market I suggest you take a look at the spot gamma founders notes for more information there I think it varies I think spot gamma was looking for a little bit more volatility this morning so I you know I don't know if there's any consistent behavior around Vicks expiration right so some sellers coming in again at the spy VWAP right so NC lead farmer thanks for pointing that out let's take a look at Vicks there's also a note about Vicks so Vicks has definitely been falling so right around 213 Vicks began falling so right at the same time spy SPX started moving higher let's see what options traders are doing so now they have started stopped taking positive delta positions and there's a very strong correlation between options trades hedging activity and price action options traders very active today let's just take a look at one other thing I want to take a look at next expiry so this is showing for the SB 500 this is showing options that expire today with the green line here and really that notional value is not not significant today so traders are taking longer-term positions most likely quite a bit trading in the options that expire on Friday let's go back to the SB 500 we were looking at spy finding some resistance at VWAP let's go see if we get any more clues with the ES and ES also right below VWAP again the light blue line there's VWAP right above the 4450 level that is the ES 4450 level so there's your test of VWAP again thanks for pointing that out for both spy and ES price reversing lower look like a stop run up to that level small stops shown by the rising yellow line rising yellow levels off cumulative volume delta shifts lower you can just see the magenta dots coming in there took a few minutes couple of tests price moving lower as options traders stopped taking positive delta positions then started taking negative delta positions and we saw that this the zero DTE option flow was not necessarily significant here and let's just see what they're doing with puts and calls really no clarity from that better to look at the total signal so now they may be that may have been just a dip pullback they're starting to take positive delta positions right so Sam says hi I've only recently come to know this channel appreciate your education learn a lot already great welcome Sam glad you're here hope you come again and glad you're watching today glad you're learning be patient this takes time and Truman asked to use the absolute gamma strike key delta strike as potential support and resistance and as a magnet to price so primarily the absolute gamma strike I really don't look at the key delta strike except at expiration and typically that is just not something that I look at but the absolute gamma strike or the key gamma strike for stocks yes I definitely look at that all right so let's go back to book map and in seven lead farmer says fighting at market open price and VWAP now so let's see so it looked like the cash open is a little bit lower we can see that a little bit easier and spy so yeah price is a little bit a little bit higher there's the there's the cash open for spy you can tell by the big volume dot there the opening print negative also point of control at that level until it moves higher now point of control down at 442 that's shown by this purple line here right so the SB 500 testing spy and ESV WAP now it looks like it wants to move higher let's go back to ES all right so right now order flow looks bullish to me just looking at the volume dots shift from magenta to green price breaking above 4450 VWAP heading to spy 443 all these lines in the subcharta rising Kimlet to volume Delta my stop orders and buy iceberg orders all helping to move price higher and let me do a final check for questions all right so Carl says I bought book map due primarily to your analysis plus some others and book map discord it's been well worth it great that is great to hear that's why I'm here that makes me very happy to hear thank you very much for posting that that that makes my day and I'm sure that will make Bruce's day as well he's the director of education at book map all right my time is up I want to thank everyone for watching thank you very much for your questions and comments especially in YouTube I really appreciate it let me just add one thing if you have any questions after the end of this webinar and what the best way to get in touch with me if you have questions after the webinar is to contact me in discord first and I I'll have my contact information in my slides tomorrow but I'm in discord this gives me a kind of a central point to ask to answer all of your questions so in discord you can contact me my name and discord is Doug P capital D OUG P capital P Doug P and also in book map discord there's the chat room options dash Doug chat room so if you want to join book map discord there's great information there it's free whether to use subscribe to book map or not great information for a variety of topics include a my channel channels devoted to a variety of languages to future stocks so that's the best way to contact me either direct message in in discord or in the options dash Doug chat channel in discord and then I'm also on Twitter and that is at at Doug plus all lowercase D OUG P L ESS so you can contact me in either but I prefer discord and again that is the that will give me a central point for all your questions so again that's the best way to contact me right I need to wrap it up again thank you very much for watching thanks for your kind words thanks for your questions and comments and I will see you tomorrow thanks again bye