 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good Friday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company alive from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and markets right now at pre-market session highs. We got markets higher, Russell, the only one in the red right now, barely by less than a point, but you got the S&Ps up by 10 points on the dot. That's 210% in the positive extending, quite the record day that we had yesterday, 5108 right now in the S&Ps. NASDAQ 100, we're up by 31 points, we'll call it, a similar 210%. Not quite back over where you were as the highs of yesterday. You take a look at the S&Ps. Just getting barely above that level, NASDAQ, I guess pretty much bumping up against it. Quite the acceleration, folks, from where we were, of course. Up 210% of the Dow right now. Up a similar 210% as well, 39,188, we're only 2% away from 40,000 in the Dow. 2% away from 40,000 in the Dow, and we're about 11% away from 20,000 in the NASDAQ 100. Pretty remarkable. 40,000, 20,000, 5,000 across the board, Bitcoin pulling back a little bit today, not experiencing the run. I guess it would make sense, although sometimes Bitcoin, remember when Bitcoin was trading right within the NASDAQ 100, complete correlation, not the case anymore, right? Look at the action yesterday, not the case at all. Bitcoin down almost $1,200, $51,535, crude. You make it to $78.92 late in the session yesterday. Since then, you're down almost $2, we're trading at $77.38 and the price of crude. Keep your eye on crude, critical area. You can see bumping up against this critical area, and that has been an area of resistance to the upside. And what are you doing? What's going on? Almost three full months that this price level has been a high point for the price of crude, and you get above here. Okay, this is the area that was an area of support back here in August. You accelerate to $95. You break through that area with force on November 7th, and since then, that's been the area. And yet again, we trade lower from that price point down $1.27 of the price of crude. You jump over to the gold, up about $5 gold trading at $2,035 this morning. We jump to notes and bonds, pretty calm action. The trend has been lower price and higher yield. We got some Fed speak that we'll talk about from last night, Christopher Waller, among others, seems to indicate we got about two to three months to go. Data is what they need to be a little bit more sure in themselves that maybe they have inflation under control. I mean, does this seem like an economy that you need to cut rates to make sure that we're not bringing down the growth aspects in light of yesterday's action, making that case very difficult. Ten-year yield, 4.32% right now. And you jump over to the dollar index, DXY, 103.85, quite the day yesterday, right? We had a big spike down, big spike up. That's what it looks like on a daily. You put it on a five minute. You see the spike to 103.43, or back up to 104.10. And just like that, we're giving it up a bit. You're off about 10 pennies at 103.86 for the price of the dollar. And let's wrap it up with NVIDIA, because you're going higher yet again, folks. NVIDIA, up another $17 in the pre-market, $802.00. And what's remarkable here is just shy of 2.5 billion shares, right? Is the number they have, folks, even today, they're going to add. What is that? What are they up? 17 bucks? 2.5. I mean, you're talking about $40 billion, something in that ballpark just overnight from where you were yesterday after the historic day it had. I think they added $270 plus billion to their market cap. The biggest add prior to that was meta earlier this month, when they added about $197 billion. Pretty historic run. And they looked to extend that gain this morning with the S&Ps rising now by 13 points. And you got NVIDIA, up another $17.00, pretty remarkable. We jumped to AMD chips. Not quite the case. They are higher from the close, but not quite above. And this is where you start to see, right? I mean, there's a new sheriff in town, folks, as technology and the economy changes. I was listening to Bloomberg earlier this morning, and Jonathan Farrow was talking about when Amazon started taking over, and you had people comparing Sears to Amazon and not understanding how a company like Amazon back then that was really getting into book selling to begin with, and then you go from there, how they could be valued more than a company like Sears. And you're hearing that conversation right now of how NVIDIA is a more expensive company than Amazon, which is remarkable when you think about where they are in the growth sector as well. And then even Google, that NVIDIA has overtaken them. Now Google's got their problems with Gemini. I mean, what a missed opportunity, right? When you think about that they are barely above where you were trading at at the close of Wednesday. Yeah, we're from 144 to 145.33. They probably wish they held that image generator a little bit longer, at least through NVIDIA earnings, so they could have experienced some of that run because the market gave it back quickly yesterday. They're taking some flak, and they're going to have some issues to deal with on that front, man. We'll see where we go from there. Nonetheless, S&Ps up by 12 points as we kick things off, and what are we going to talk about? We're going to talk about a little bit of NVIDIA to kick off the program, man. The Journal, with an article out this morning just talking about the meteoric rise in five charts, and they shouldn't be surprising in terms of the performance. The stock performance, if you go back to the beginning of 2022, now here's what's remarkable is that's when the market peaked out, right? We got the remarkable pullback in the indices. You see the pullbacks here across the board, NVIDIA steeper than all of them, okay? We were down 60% at one point in NVIDIA shares. Meanwhile, you fast forward the S&P, only up a few digits from where we were in the highs, right? Because we're pretty high. We're almost at 5,000. NVIDIA up 150%, not surprising though. How about the quarterly net profit? This is how you do it, folks. You go from a company that in 90 days was making $660 million to a company that in 90 days made $6912. What's that, $27 billion over nine months? That's profits, $27 billion over nine months versus you had some quarters back there in 2002, 2023. This is when they really started to ramp things up though, talking about AI. Yeah, revenue growth is just bonkers, man, 125.9%. Two years ago, they were right in line with some of the growth of these companies, Tesla, man. They got some issues to put it lightly. Market value? Look at where it is, right? Absolutely remarkable when you talk about the companies that it has taken over that time. Tesla, not even in the rear view mirror anymore, Meta at 1.24 trillion, Amazon and Alphabet both at about 1.8, NVIDIA is basically going to crack $2 trillion this morning on the open, and you got Apple at 2.83 and the big dog in AI, Microsoft, $3.04 trillion. Remember that deal they made with open AI? They invested what was it, $10 billion in open AI, Microsoft up another $3.50, man, this morning to $4.15 from Microsoft shares. We jump over to Amazon, they're basically flat, nice acceleration yesterday of course with the market for Amazon shares, you jump over to Apple this morning, Apple basically flat as well, $184.48, take a look at Google in the short term, they're going to be flat as well. We jump over to Meta shares this morning, Meta going to be up by $3, there you go, $489.71, we take a peek at Tesla shares, Tesla going to open down $2 to $195.87, and yeah, you talk about an investment from Microsoft, right, $10 billion in open AI, and I think they got like almost 50% of that company on top of it eventually, and now the company is valued over $3 trillion. Stay tuned folks, lots to talk about, we're coming back after the break, don't go away. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. 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Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Back folks, here we go into the opening bell. You have the S&Ps right now, up by 14 points, NASDAQ 100. You're up by 46 points. You got the Dow up by 87, all of those up between about two-tenths and three-tenths percent in the positive. You jump over to the VIX right now, VIX, at a price level of 14. But it is interesting. I was covering for my dad last night interviewing Tim Ward. If you didn't check out any of those interviews, folks, right on our YouTube page, you just search for TFNN when you're at YouTube, find our page, like it, subscribe to it. Make sure you get those notifications. We archive every video we do, and one of the things he looks at, he looks at the spy-VIX ratio, right, or something similar to that, and it can create some problems when you have a rising VIX, even as the market is making exceptional and new highs over and over and over. As in, the VIX right now, yes, it's well off the highs we've had recently. Okay, you were above 16, going into NVIDIA earnings, volatility gets sucked out, but look at, we rose yesterday. You opened an actually volatility premium, went up throughout the day. There was no fear in that market yesterday, all right? You got a little bit of a suck out today, but look at just going back to, yeah, on this chart. Let me back it up even a little more. So many days on this chart are below a price point of 14, right? You back it up to November 20th. When there was less risk premium, you could call it, right? Priced into this market. We're sitting at 14. Not surprising. People might be mined a little bit of insurance as the market has risen dramatically to a price level of 51, 11. Doesn't mean we can't go higher, man. Because boy, you take a look at some of speaking of ratios. Let's see, we jump around here. This is the chart I want to get to, perfect. So this is the article that we were going over that was the five different charts from the journal talking about their meteoric rise, NVIDIA this is. Look at NVIDIA's price to earnings ratio. Now I talked about this yesterday. How do you come into a PE that's above 60, right? And this is a forward PE, okay? This is price to earnings ratio estimated earnings over the next 12 months. The trailing was even dramatically even higher than that, right? This is the forward earnings per share, okay? They were pushing 60. And that was in May of 2023, for some context here where it was NVIDIA trading in May of 2023. It was trading at a third of the price that's trading at right now, okay? 275, just cherry picking somewhere in there, 280, 275, 260, something like that, okay? That time their forward PE was at 60, much like it was when you came into the acceleration where the market sold off at the beginning of 2022. What's happened now? You've dropped that to a forward PE of about 28. The whole Philadelphia Semiconductor Index right now is sitting at 28, excuse me, NVIDIA is at about 31. The whole S&P is at about 20. The one thing to consider is there is already massive growth built into the next 12 months, which then you multiply for the price to earnings, okay? So it's a multiplication of a multiplication. That's where you can get rip-roaring rallies backwards if you fail to deliver on those growth numbers that the market is pricing in over a period of X amount of years, boy, you can reprice a market capitalization of an asset dramatically when you start pricing in dramatically lower growth. I don't think that's going to happen with NVIDIA right now, man, as this seems to be the start of the AI revolution and it's not slowing down. I talked about yesterday, 40% of their customer base is basically the biggest four companies out there when you're talking about Amazon, Google, Meta, Apple, those are the customers you want, folks. Those customers are not going to run out of money in the pursuit of AI dominance. No, if anything, they'll probably overspend in the pursuit of AI dominance right now. Nonetheless, we've got the S&Ps up by 17. All right, what else we've got going on is we jump around here. Yeah, we'll talk about this one. Why not from the journal, man? These stories are never going to end. Meta staff found Instagram tool, enabled child exploitation, the company pressed ahead. Anyway, I think Zuckerberg's been in front of Congress 11 times. I found myself saying last time when he appeared in front of Congress, and I think remember he turned around and apologized to the parents of children who may have been harmed on that platform. First of all, I'll just go to this. He was very professional, very prepared. You could tell he had rehearsed that many times over. It was quite an act. And if you just keep going in front of Congress and nothing happens, I mean, I would try and keep that out of your children's hands. Social media, especially. Listen, Tommy has screen time, man, but social media, I'm going to do everything I can to keep that away as long as I can. And you can see how people are turned off by it too, right? Facebook is not what it used to be. Instagram even is not what it used to be. In terms of just, I'm no longer seeing people aren't sharing their own stuff anymore. If you're doing it, you're doing it in group chats, reading articles over the weekend. Facebook has a problem. I mean, they're getting plenty of content that's shared, that's getting pushed in front of you from sources that aren't your family, your friends and stuff like that anymore. And I don't think it's healthy to put it lightly. But nonetheless, another story that you'll be hearing something about that two teams inside Metta raised alarms in internal reports after finding hundreds of what the company calls parent-managed minor accounts. We're using the subscription feature to sell exclusive content not available. These are parent-managed minor accounts selling exclusive content, right? No nudity or illegal content. Some parents understood that they were producing content for other adults. I mean, it's just bonkers, man. So keep that one on your radar, because he's going to be back in front of Congress again. I don't know if they actually do anything. It's almost too ridiculous of an article to talk about this early in the morning in terms of what's going on there. But Metta shares, they're not going to take a hit. Can you jump over? And yeah, they're trading up by $3 this morning. From Metta shares, is this market just continues higher? Dow now up 111, man. I mean, it's actually possible now that we're in the realm that you could get a Dow 40,000 a day. We're only 2%. Yesterday, the S&Ps did 2%. The Dow a little bit of a laggered up about 1%, I think. Maybe a little bit more than 1% by the end of the day on that acceleration. Nonetheless, all right, we jump around to other stocks. Carvana, first ever annual profit after it cut its debt, shares surged. These Carvana was out with their numbers after the bell. They forecast, yeah, how about that? They forecast an adjusted core profit for the first quarter significantly above 100 million. Let's talk about a rollercoaster ride, CVNA is their symbol. There's your acceleration, man, from 50 to 50 up to 67. What's that going to be? 25%, 30% pop on the open. If we back this thing up, let's back it all the way up. Got to go back further than that. There we go. The meteoric rise to $376, the plummet to $3, and now we're at 66 bucks as this thing has saved itself. It looked like they were going out of business, man, but it seems like vending machines with cars. Carvana shares are going to pop by $15 on the open as they swing to profitability. What else do we have? Yeah, block. They're swinging much higher as well. Surprise profit to the same degree. Block shares surge as much as 14%. Surprise profit, $5.77 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter. Strong revenue growth in cash up and square revenue over there, earnings per share, $0.45. And as I mentioned, $5.77 billion, $2.03 billion in gross profit, up 22%. They raise their EBITDA forecast to at least $2.63 billion from $2.4 billion. Their symbol is SQ, used to be square. Now it's block. All right. All right. Yeah, it is. Look at them. Up by $13 bucks to $80 bucks. We'll take a look at this when we come back longer term, you're still pushing recent highs. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the opening bell. Are you ready to take charge of your financial future? TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing. Whether you're starting out or scaling up, TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems, strategies, and techniques. It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN, we bring the trading floor to you. 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Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar Yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex Report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive he just hosted, forex strategies, and fundamentals. What is behind the Tiger Forex Report? For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex Report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com, TFNN Educating Investors. Whether you're a season trader or just starting out, Market Insights provides the edge you need to navigate the market with confidence. Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN Educating Investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We got stocks open at a record. Never said it before. Futures up 16 points, trading at 5,114, and it is remarkable once these records start. We saw how that happened. Got to back things up so remarkably, man, and put things on like a monthly. In terms of record after record after record, they usually come in clusters. Man, the prior record was what? 4,800, 4,808, that was the high from January of 2022. We'll go back to a three-year weekly and take these off. You can see how before I take that channel line off. I mean, not a perfect channel line, but boy, you can see how it chops around. And what's it do? Boy, that was the acceleration, man. Yesterday, right back in that channel. And if we stay in that channel, we'll see where we go from there, man, to put it lightly. The one thing that is happening that I've been talking about is we are coming into the A to B, C to D projection, man, and absolutely remarkable. If you told somebody on your C point in October, hey, you know that run we just had? That was 1,000 points from 3,600 to 4,600. We're about to go C to D right now. And we're going to get there in a period of November, December, January, February, four months, four months. We just traded up 1,000 points in the S&P. And we're almost within four points of that price, little man. And I'm just taking the low here, 4,122. And I'm just ballparking, you know, for four straight weeks. We had bars that had bodies down at about 3,600. You get two bars, almost three touching 4,600. Nice round numbers, nice round number of 1,000 point A to B. You pull back and that pullback as well, about the 50% of the entire run. So you trade up, you pull back 50%, you trade up another 1,000 points. Well, here we are. What's going to happen in 5,122 is this market climbs forward on the opening bell. S&Ps now up by 4,10%. We jump over into video shares, just wild stuff, man. Up another $24, folks. We jump over to NVIDIA and you are at 2.02 trillion. And look at that, there are 2.5 on the dot. How'd that happen? Remember yesterday, there were 2.47. So now you got real simple math, folks. Somebody asked you, NVIDIA, they have 2.5 billion shares outstanding, 2.5, and the company is trading at $809. And they got 2.5 billion shares. If the company was trading at $10, it would be worth $25 billion. No, it's trading at $810. 2.03 trillion, remarkable. Let's jump around and see what else we've got going on in terms of these equities. Microsoft, they're sitting at 3.08. Are we going to get a $4 trillion company just like that, man? Microsoft's at 3.1 out of nowhere. Not out of nowhere, I guess, but 3.1 just like that. You jump over to Apple shares, they're up by 2.10% on the open right now. Apple's sitting at 2.85, just like that. Apple, $250 billion market cap behind Microsoft shares. You had Buffett trimming his position a little bit in the last quarter. And remember, that was quarterly data from Buffett that could have started in October, right? You get 45 days after the end of the quarter from Buffett. So that was October, November, December trading. Then you got 45 days to file your positions. That comes in the middle of February. Buffett had been trimming his position. And I think the writing on the wall, yeah, they're going to be a strong dividend company. Apple, is that what they're going to be, man? As they get pretty stagnant from where some of these companies that are competing with them are growing right now. Google shares up about 1.10%, as I mentioned, missing out on this run because of their problems with Gemini. And what else we got? We jump over to Warner Brothers Discovery. Tough go-around, man, it just keeps getting tougher. The one thing I will say, man, they got a lot of free cash flow. And I think HBO, it's funny, I was going to call it HBO Max. They're working real hard just to call it Max. I subscribed to it myself. And as somebody that doesn't pay for cable, it is cool in terms of you got live sports in there, in Max. You also have live news, CNN, is what you get on there, live all the time. For New Year's Eve, I put on the CNN broadcast. Because I just wanted something, one of the New Year's Eve celebrations. Well, CNN had one. It was Anderson Cooper and Andy Cohen out there, something like that. So you can understand how they're bringing people into an ecosystem, really combining a variety of products. But guess what? They missed the mark on a couple different numbers, man, as they are down 12% right now. And we jump over to Warner Brothers Discovery. And the headline is Mrs. Estimates for Revenue and Profit. But I think they're on the right path here when you look at these numbers, man. The market, they're not willing to wait. That's what's going on right now. So they missed estimates for the top and the bottom line. They ended 2023 profitable for the first time. Studio Revenue dropped, but you have the strike going on. Okay, so that was part of what was going on here. They generated $3.31 billion in free cash flow in the fourth quarter. They ended the year with more than $6 billion in free cash flow, up 86%. You got the CEO, Zasloff. Okay, he's prioritizing cash flow and getting rid of some of the debt. They've paid down $1.2 billion in debt in the quarter, $5.4 billion in debt in the year. Last year, 2023, they still have $44 billion in gross debt remaining. Quite a load of debt. Max ended 2023 profitable. Four year adjusted earnings EBITDA, $103 million, barely in the positive there. $97.7 million global direct-to-consumer subscribers, 2% increase there. They lost 16 cents versus seven. They missed on revenue as well at 10.28 versus 10.35. The number was looking for fourth quarter net loss, $400 million. There's just 16 cents to share. They were losing $2.1 billion a year ago. Okay, yeah, so Studio Revenue dropping 17%. Yeah, linear television advertising. Nonetheless, they're paying the price this morning when you miss on the top and the bottom line and your forecast doesn't deliver to the same degree. Now, the one thing you got to keep in mind here is this run up here, you got to remember that's the Bill Hwang saga, okay? That was not real numbers when this thing ran up to 78. As in, sometimes they're not real numbers like Carvana in that degree, but that was real, that was how the market was pricing it. This was market manipulation, okay? From one participant taking out loans in excess capital and running a stock up. So take that out of the equation. You chopped around between 20 and 30 for a period of a few years. It's a tough go around. When you got $45 billion in debt and you're barely making $100 million. Yeah, that might be an issue. $20.4 billion is still their market cap, though. Pretty remarkable, right, how it works. You got $44 billion in debt, you're worth $20 billion. You got double the debt on your books that your market capitalization rises to, not really an important fact, but nonetheless. We jump around to some of the other streamers. Netflix shares, look at this run, right? Netflix, $591. You're up about another half a percent for Netflix shares today. Disney shares, not experiencing the game with the market. Disney, just giving up some of these gains. In a longer term, I think Disney's a great play folks, but boy, they still have some issues and that's streaming wars. They're going to be competitive forever. For everything I say about Warner Brothers, how many can you subscribe to? We have Disney in the house, of course, for the kids, but it seems like the game is going to be that eventually it's going to be you cancel and you come back. And that's where live sports is going to transform things, trying to keep subscribers on for a constant basis. Because I found myself, I canceled NBC Peacock, I think. I subscribed to them for an NFL Playoff game at one point. Just canceled it. And you know, it's not like I'm creating all these new email addresses to capitalize on a new customer deal or something. I just canceled it. They came back to me at Buck 99 for six months if I want to sign back up. Buck 99 for six months. That's going to be tough to make money if that's what you're pushing out there. S&Ps up by 22 points, folks. Stay tuned. Come right back. Don't go away. Are you ready to take charge of your financial future? TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing. Whether you're starting out or scaling up, TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems, strategies and techniques. It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN, we bring the trading floor to you. Our seasoned hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just $1 and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. And remember, at TFNN, we're so confident in the value we provide that we offer a 30-day money-back guarantee on all new premium newsletter subscriptions and services. 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This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. We get the 10-year yield, just about 4.3% right now. We get the dollar down about 10 ticks at 103.85. We take a look at the chart of the 10-year. That is ZN on the Thinkorswim platform. Up a bit, just where we were at about 8 a.m. this morning, 109.19 from 109.14. But as we've risen a bit, we're sitting at about 4.3% right now. 4.3% on the 10-year as this market continues to climb. S&P is up by half a percent, NASDAQ 100, up by half a percent, Dow up by a third of a percent, and the Russell. Be careful in the Russell, folks. They do not look to be participating in what we have going on in this market to put it lightly, right? Russell down by 7 points, negative by 4 tenths percent. The Russell trading at where it was last Tuesday. No, this Tuesday, excuse me, where it was this Tuesday. And for reference, the S&P was at 5,000, you're 117 points higher, just like that from where we were on Tuesday trading. Even higher if you take 49.80, remarkable acceleration. You jump on to NVIDIA. Got to keep an eye on NVIDIA, right? It's not stopping. We just hit 823, we're up by 4.1%. We're up another 32 bucks on the NVIDIA shares, man. This thing was just trading at 660 on Wednesday. Six, let's get it exactly. Oh, we're at 666 at 1.660, 248, is that the low? I want the cherry pick low here. 660, 248, we'll call it 660 for simple math. It's up 160 bucks almost. What is 160 on 60? 24.24% from where it was. You don't see companies this size jump that much, folks. Not often, historic day to put it lightly as this thing continues to climb. Microsoft shares, up about three quarters percent. Keeping our eye on some of the runners. Google shares, up about three tenths. AMD, hanging on to the gains yesterday. 182, we check in on Apple shares slightly in the red. They give it up on the open for Apple, even with the NASDAQ 100, up now half a percent. Okay, let's talk a little bit of FedSpeak. Top Fed officials bolster the case for patient stance on rate cuts. We got a couple months. That's it, at least a couple months. And you better hope the data lines up, otherwise we're gonna need more months after that. You had three different Federal Reserve officials. Yeah, three top officials hammered home the message Thursday. You had Fed Vice Chair, Philip Jefferson, Governor Lisa Cook. They said their optimistic inflation is still cooling despite a blip in January, but made clear they want more evidence it's headed back to their 2% target before lowering barring costs. Here's the quote. At some point, as we gain greater confidence that disinflation is ongoing and sustainable, that changing outlook will warrant a change in the policy rate. Okay, that was an event at Princeton. Jefferson agreed rate cuts this year are likely, and that's what they keep saying, right? Even Chairman Powell, his words on his last press conference, or somewhere, maybe it was 60 minutes, something to the degree of everybody pretty much agrees that cuts would be appropriate this year. Well, he's saying that at the beginning of February, okay? And that's what they keep saying. Agreed rate cuts this year are likely, but said that officials need to be on guard against reducing them too much in response to easing price pressures. Excessive easing can lead to a stalling or reversal in progress in restoring price stability. Yeah, and then you had Christopher Waller out there last night, okay? Said January's jump in CPI, warrants caution, consumer price is not CPI is what he said, but nonetheless, pretty similar. Deciding when to start cutting rates, though he expects reductions will begin later this year. I love how they all throw that in, right? They don't wanna freak the market out. They said, listen, it's not happening yet. I think it's gonna happen this year, but it's not happening yet. Here's a quote, the strength of the economy and the recent data we've received on inflation mean it is appropriate to be patient, careful, methodical, deliberative, pick your favorite synonym Waller said, this was on a speech in Minneapolis, whatever word you pick, they all translate to one idea, what's the rush? And they speak to how they kind of echoed what Powell had to say, and I guess that was all the way back in January, January 30th to 31st, pretty remarkable. Next meeting, March 20th, folks, put it on your calendar, because it's my birthday. That's right, and there's no way that they're cutting with this economy, man. Okay, we go from there, we go to Goldman, and they're agreeing. They're saying at least June, they were in the May Camp, can't be in the May Camp right now, man, with the type of verbiage you got from the Fed and everything going on. Goldman Sachs Group of Economists have pushed back their view on when the Fed, they're late to the party, man, they're pushing it back to June. After parsing recent comments from the central bank and minutes in its January meeting, they dropped the forecast for a May cut and expect four reductions this year. They were looking for five previously, with moves in June, July, September, and December, with their forecasting four more cuts next year, versus a prior three, leaving the same terminal rate, three and a quarter to 3.5 economists wrote in a note dated yesterday. Yeah, and then they go on to talk about the Fed. I mean, maybe we got four? We better see some pretty decent numbers to need four cuts right now with the type of inflation numbers we're still dealing with. You go from there, okay? I still see articles like this all the time and I've talked about it myself in terms of car insurance, okay? Even as used car prices fell and eye-watering rise in premiums often was not enough to offset higher costs for global auto insurers. So insurers are dealing with it, okay? And they're talking about everywhere right now. I'm just talking about Florida, okay? Motor insurance, cumulative change in consumer prices. Yeah, now this goes back to 2017, okay? And you got a 40% rise, but it depends where you are, man, because I told you, I just literally had almost a 50% rise for no reason. No accident, no ticket, no nothing, okay? You're talking about a six-month renewal of a car that's about to be five years old that just went from 1200 bucks to like 18 or 19. I think it was $1,300 for six months, so about 200 bucks a month for insurance up to a price level of 1900, something like that. And I have a small accident from five years ago that's still on there that's gonna roll off, but that doesn't change, it just went from literally about $1,300 over six months pre-payment to almost $2,000 pre-payment. I thought I was hearing things. And I'm with Progressive and I shopped it around a bit. I went to Geico and they were no help. It was the same exact quote. All they could offer me was trimming down my coverage to save me money. So, well, that's not why I called you, man. Yeah, nonetheless, insurance companies are dealing with it as well, but keep this in mind for the inflation debate. That's what I wanted to bring up, man, because you got this going on. We have home insurance in Florida, a massive issue as well. If you're in Florida, if you got some quotes for home insurance, make sure you check with citizens, folks, because sometimes versus the private market, you're talking about dramatic savings for homes. Yes, to put it lightly. Okay, what else do we got going on here? How about China? Yeah, they're trying everything they can, man. China's central bank tries to catch markets off guard with a surprise easing. The unexpected measures include a mortgage rate and a reserve requirement ratio cut. The investors say more may be needed to spur a meaningful remount. Well, yeah, of course they're gonna say that, right? And no huge reaction. We've got Nikkei up 2%, Hangsang basically flat, Shanghai up about half a percent right now, inch higher is the phrase there for Chinese markets, but a record cut to a key lending rate early this week and that's by the People's Bank of China, the latest of the unexpected moves. They're trying everything they can, man, but China's got issues in a pretty dramatic fashion to put it lightly. Yeah, and just jumping around to what different money managers are doing. Fidelity, one of their managers, he's dumping all the treasuries. Growth optimism, absolutely remarkable, right? One of the things I was talking to Tim Ward, if you didn't check out the Tim Ward interview last night, folks, check it out. Head on over to our YouTube page. You can check that out. I was talking to Tim. And I know some people in the den have a trouble following them. That's why it's great you can go back over, look at these ratios, all right? Check out some of the webinars Tim has done under the services tab at TFNN if you're really struggling, folks, because they are powerful. We'll talk a little bit about them when we get back, but yeah, he was saying the real rally may be beginning, the real rally. He's sitting there for 5,100. One more segment. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The gold report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFNN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. They must have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Just visit the Newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit WatchTigerTV. That's TFNN.com and hit WatchTigerTV. Welcome back, folks. S&Ps just dropping around 51-20 right now. We're positive by about half a percent extending the gains of yesterday's NASDAQ 100 up by about four-tenths percent. The Dow catches a little bit of a bid up by four-tenths percent as well. We're nearing 39,300 on a percentage basis, man. We're only like one and a quarter percentage. One and three-quarters percentage away from 40,000. Get your hats ready, folks. Russell continuing to underperform, man. Can't overstate that one. Down five bucks. We check out Bitcoin. Down about $1,000 this morning. Crude continuing to drop. We got a 76 handle now and the price accrued. You jump over to gold. Just chopping around. We're sitting at 2,035. We were lower this morning. We're basically up by four bucks on the session. We check in on yields towards the end of the hour as we're continuing to see higher price and lower yield. You jump over and we're now, let me see where we are. Are we under 4.3? We are under 4.3, 4.297 as close as you can be. We'll call it 4.3%. We're seeing higher price lower yield right now at 109.21. We jump over to the dollar index as we wrap up the hour. Dollar, 103.85 on a longer term basis on the dollar. Pretty remarkable this range we've been in, right? You have been in this range, folks, since November of 2022 where the dollars been between about 101 maybe. Call it. You got below that level in July when you dipped to 99. Throw a 101 to 106 as you've been chopping around. Seems like it's poised to break one way or the other. We got to keep our eye on NVIDIA as we wrap out the hour. Up almost 4%. You get back from that high, 823.94. We're still up 3.7% extending those gains. NVIDIA. Remember, simple math, 2.5 billion shares. So they traded 800 bucks. They're at exactly $2 trillion. Simple math, 2.5 billion shares. A $2 trillion company joining some of the ranks and you get the CEO out there that he's gonna, he's almost cracking the top 20 wealthiest people in the entire world. Remarkable how sometimes you get these accelerations. Elon had himself quite an acceleration and now the NVIDIA CEO. He's powering the AI revolution with those chips. So it makes sense. Folks, thanks so much for tuning in. Stay tuned. We got our man Basil Chapman coming up next. Have yourself a great Friday. Have a great weekend, safe weekend out there, folks. Be safe. We look forward to seeing you back here Monday morning at nine o'clock in the morning. Higher prices. S&Ps up by 20. Stay tuned, folks. Basil Chapman, he's coming up next. Don't go away. We'll be right back.