 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Hope everybody is doing okay. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Hopefully everybody had a great training week. Very, very solid action last week. We'll talk about that in a few minutes. Every week I try. Again, there's so many moving parts in trading. I always like to give little tidbits to new traders, aspiring traders, people who are just literally getting their beak wet in this really crazy roller coaster that we call the trading business. And it's very, very tough sometimes to connect to new traders because they believe their reality is the absolute and nothing can change their mind. And I truly believe one of the many, because there's so many moving parts in trading, one of the many moving parts that traders kind of fail to absorb, kind of embrace is the ability that their position or their trade, whatever the case may be, is going to be completely removed from anything that's going on in the rest of the macro market. And people fall in love with stocks. They fall in love with their positions. They fall in love with the story. And the reality is when you look at a stock technically, things could be completely different than, well, in your reality. And if you go through history, and I've been doing this now 20 years, if you go through the history of great growth stories, it doesn't make a difference what that great growth story is. It could be from Etoys. Well, the old farts who've been trading since the dot com. You guys remember Etoys. Oh my God, they're selling toys online. It's absolutely incredible. It's going to be the most incredible thing ever. Right. Etoys. They're gone. Right. You know, even Tesla, for example, my favorite stock to trade, there's so much bad intention, good intention, love affair, hatefest in Tesla that one party believes that this is going to be the greatest thing. This is going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread and the stock. And I think that some analysts came out a couple of weeks ago, like a $4,000 or $5,000 price target. They think the stock will be the greatest thing ever. And then there's the other side of the business. And again, now the stock price is reflecting it, that they believe that the CEO is a lunatic, the company has way too much debt, and the stock will be at zero. Right. So both parties are emotionally attached. They're super aggressive in their opinion, and they're so emotionally engulfed that they can't see the big picture of the trade. Now, again, for me, if all you guys have been following me for years, you kind of know Tesla's my favorite stock to trade. It's not my favorite position. It's my favorite stock to trade. So for me, it doesn't make a difference. The stock trends higher, there's confirmations to the upside, stock trades lower, confirmations to the downside. So when the stock finally started breaking down, okay, I had a slew of people from different platforms on the bullish side talking about, you don't know what you're saying, the stock will be at 500, you're blocked. Okay, number one, I didn't know you were alive two seconds ago. Why would you block me? I don't follow you, right? Isn't the whole point of block? Well, okay, that's all the story. When the stock goes higher, right, you can hold permables. You don't know what you're talking about. The stock is going to zero, you're blocked. Again, these are all emotional things people are embracing, okay, that their reality could be a completely different reality than something else. So for years, when Tesla was squeezing people on the way up, everybody kept on, you know, everybody kept on emotionally bashing the thing when the stock is finally going down. Now you have the perma bears, perma bulls really trying to, you know, hang on to something, okay, and both sides are flawed. Okay, both sides are flawed because again, they're letting their emotional levels, they're letting their opinions kind of rule the day. Okay, take action in case, in case instead of being proved right technically. And the biggest, one of the biggest downfalls I think, especially for a newer trader is, you're so hell bent on being right. You don't see, you know, you don't see the daggers coming at you. You don't see, you don't see the pitfalls, you don't see the grenades that are launched at you. You don't see the landmines you're potentially about to step on because again, you are emotionally bent in the position. And again, you don't see this with professional traders. You don't see professional traders fighting with other professional traders because again, there's nothing you can say. I don't care who you are. There's nothing you can say that's going to change my position. Okay, there's nothing you can change. So save your breath. Okay, the ultimate equalizer in trading is technical analysis. So when I see a trader, okay, talk to me about a position I had from three weeks ago, which I don't even remember what I traded a day ago, let alone three weeks ago. And you're so emotionally charged, I can tell number one, your level of existence. Okay, any trader who is going to try to justify their position is a novice, okay, is a novice. None of my friends or me, we'll never talk about our position to another trader because we don't care. What do I care what you think about my position? I'm either going to be right or going to be wrong. The ultimate equalizer is technical analysis. Unfortunately, for new traders, they don't believe in that. They believe in the story, right? They believe that no matter what happens in the market, the market could crash tomorrow, your position will be okay, right? Nothing's gonna happen. Look at the story. The CEO is buying a company. Look at their technology. Look at their PR, right? Look at their PR, right? Enron, WorldCom, Adelphia Communications, right? You had a slew of thousands of companies that everybody loved the story and unfortunately, okay, it wound it up the same way. Now again, are there companies, plenty of companies, the long-term investors are going to make money in? Absolutely, right? This is the most rapid bull market for the last 100 years that everybody has seen. So yes, will you be ultimately right in Microsoft? Probably. Will you be ultimate right on Amazon? Yeah, probably, right? But when I'm talking about Amazon, of course, I think the stock one day will be at $2,500, $3,000, right? But when I'm talking about Amazon, I'm talking about a very near-term bias that I'm looking to take advantage of price action. I'm not disputing that Amazon is gonna take over the world and literally get into every single business one day and put everybody out of business, right? And be the world's greatest company. Nobody's ever disputing that. We're talking about from the, you know, from the trading point of view. Again, two, three-day intervals, right? The small term, the short-term sentiment that people could take advantage from the trading cycle. If you believe Amazon's going to $3,000, hold on to your shares. Whatever you want to do, you're all adults, right? You're all adults. It's your opinion. But don't try, especially again, social media has opened up the doors for immature, uneducated, underfunded, emotionally, okay? Emotional traders who recently got hair on their nuts, trading for six months, and they believe they're the captains of the universe. The problem with that is, when technical analysis meets the other side of your trade, you're going to be in a lot of pain. And that's not an opinion. This is a fact, okay? So if you're a new trader, the most important thing to do is, again, you might love the company, but take care, just look at the story. Look at the technical point of view. Look where the market is. Again, the last thing you want to do is buy a stock that just went from 6 to 30, and the stock's at 19, and the market's going lower. Don't think for a second, your growth story will not put you in a world of hurt once technicals are confirmed. And if you don't believe so, okay, you don't need to be mad at me. You don't need to be mad at somebody else with some random egg on Twitter or some random egg on StockTwits. Be mad at yourself. Take control for yourself. Any educational bias you have to the position, it's either going to make you right or wrong. You don't need to dispute a position. You don't need to dispute a position or defend your position. Just shut up. Just for a second. Just shut up. Keep quiet. And just understand the nuances of this business. If you believe a stock is going to be $30 three years from now, you don't need to make a comment of somebody trading the stock for a short-term basis. It just shouldn't make a difference, right? So if I'm short Amazon and you think the stock's at $3,000 in the next five years, right? Come. Quiet. We're all adults. The problem is when the amazing ego comes out of these new traders, okay, you're going to find yourself in a world of hurt. You don't believe me. Give it some time, right? Give it some time. This is a perfect example. So I started tweeting some charts over the weekend. You know, a lot of beta names, stuff like that. I just wanted to share with the universe. And we got, you know, I got to the part of Soli. Now, right, for all you guys who don't know what Soli is, I found out about it three days ago. I never traded it. The stock, whatever the news was, tattoo removal, blah, blah, blah. I don't care. It doesn't make a difference to me. I trade technicals. I don't trade the story. Stock has gone from five to 30 in a matter of what, three days or so, two days or so, right? And unfortunately, a lot of new traders chased it all the way up here, right? And then they're kind of stuck in it. And all I put out there in the macro universe that said, well, look, the stock has had a big move. The stock has held 17. You can see this one, two, even three days in a row, okay? It's held a 17 level, three days in a row. And in that process, the stock has put in one, two, three days of lower highs. And all I said was, if the stock confirms its bottom channel here, okay, the stock will pull back into this rising five-date, which is roughly about, you know, potentially anywhere from $11 to $14 a share. The outrage. It's like I called some kid ugly. It's like I called your mother a prostitute, okay? The outrage was overwhelming. Guys, listen to me very carefully, okay? My opinion means nothing. Your opinion means nothing. You're going to be defined in your financial freedom, right, that everybody chases. How smart you are, basing information, sometimes good and sometimes not. If you are technically wrong, okay? And again, this is not an opinion. This is a fact. If you're technically wrong, this is going to the new traders. If you're technically wrong and a stock starts to confirm to the wrong direction of your position, of your reality, you die, right? You die because you're in God's hands. And I've been saying this for years and years and years. God doesn't care about your position. So stop praying to God to save you, okay? Your arrogance will be your downfall. Your ability to be stubborn will be your downfall. And the worst thing you can do is try to convince a more mature in-the-game trader for 10, 20 years, whatever the case may be, that they're wrong, okay? It's an empty conversation. That trader doesn't care what you say, okay? And all you're doing is building up more emotional excuses that's going to eventually damage your trade. Do I want the stock to go down? I don't care. Do I want the stock to go up? I don't care. But the one thing that you should care, if this is your position, if the stock starts confirming the bottom channel, just listen to what I'm saying. It could be wrong, right? It's not going to cost me any money. But I'm telling you, if the stock starts confirming this bottom channel, your position that you bought up here and here and here and here and here will be down here, okay? And these are facts because, again, if you've been watching these videos for a long time, stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand. And if you believe that, well, here's demand, here's demand, here's demand, here's demand. And again, maybe the stock goes to $35 in two years if it breaks the channel and confirms it won't go there tomorrow, okay? So just understand that, again, have an open mind. The reason why professional traders have been doing this 10, 15, 20 years is because they made the mistakes. You don't need to continue to make these mistakes. Somebody else already made it for you, take solace in that, okay? Take the advice. You don't need to be right all the time. 21, 22, 23, 24-year-old traders, you guys are babies, okay? If you're trading for one or two years, you don't know anything. And I'm not saying that to be mean. I'm saying that to reality. Listen to somebody who's been shot. Listen to somebody who's been stabbed multiple times in this business. Just listen to what they're saying. Again, if you want to be mad at them, that's fine. Nobody cares. But the most important thing is if you respect your money, take a step back, have an open mind, and really trust what the market is telling you. That's kind of my piece of advice for today. So let's talk about the tape. Every piece of evidence for the last couple of weeks has been showing a back test. We've been talking about levels specifically every single week, what needs to happen, why the market should go in the specific direction and where we are now. So last week, and we kind of been talking about all these levels now, we're talking about seven weeks of selling now in the Dow Jones industrial average. Last week, we talked about how important it's 178 level of our possible move to 174, 176. They closed right at 174 or under 174, which is the 200-day moving average. Well, why is that important? Because again, stocks that start building, or in this case indexes start building below the 200-day moving average, they're in sell mode. So stop looking for breakouts. For every BYND and SOLY and Roku's out there, there's 25,000 other stocks that are trading underneath supply that are getting sold on every single bounce and rejected very, very hard into supply. This is obvious, okay? If that's not obvious to you, then again, you're looking at a different market than I am, and maybe I'm wrong, okay? Maybe I'm wrong. But right now, the significance of what's going on, okay, you've got the Qs underneath the 200-day moving average. You have the spies underneath the 200-day moving average. The IWM has been there for a long, long time. So the small cap names have been sold. If you look at the IBB, right? IBB is way, way gone below the 200-day moving average. And again, this Chinese trade war is not going away. Not only is it not going away, but again, out of left field on Friday, Trump is now fighting with Mexico on their trade war. Okay, we have maybe Uzbekistan over the weekend. We don't know, right? We don't know. Maybe Uzbekistan will be a trade war for Monday and Tuesday as well. We don't know. These random trade wars that are popping up are only going to fuel the fire of what's going on right now. And when you look at the victims of this sell-off, okay, are big, big China exposures. Semiconductors we've been talking about now for weeks, just in a death spiral, okay? Are they shorts here? Probably not, okay? But until the trade war gets resolved in it, and who knows if this is going to get resolved in this administration, okay? They're going to continue to bleed. The one day they had up on the upside, there was a rumor that Cyprus was going to get taken over, right? For that one day that they had up. If everything goes, they're going lower. They're going lower in a linear line. If you look at stocks like NVIDIA, it feels like they've been going down for like a year, okay? NVIDIA is straight down. Look at Intel, for example, right? I mean, look at Intel, right? Straight down. So the exposure to China for them is huge, okay? They represent a majority of the Nasdaq 100, along with the biotechs. So that's not going to go away, okay? It's not going to go away. And the longer we continue to build, and again, for the bulls and, you know, going into tomorrow, if the bulls want to live, they need to reclaim the 200-day on the Qs. They need to reclaim the 200-day on the spies. Will that happen? I have no idea. But the bulls better, you know, bulls better do something because the longer we start building, okay, below the 200-day moving average, we're going to go lower, okay? So again, if you believe in the theory that stocks go from supply to supply and demand to demand, then you can see the relevance of this 74-level on the Qs. We close below it. So now we're looking at 172 area here. And if that gets confirmed, you know, you can see how big the potential possibly can be. The greatest thing about what's happening is right now. Number one, the market's very, very tradable. Even if you're a permable, as much as there... I don't want to use the word fear. I think the word fear kind of left the building about 10 years ago. 10 years ago, when you had the market going down, if you look at the indexes, S&P, S&P and the NASDAQ down 2.5%, each in the Dow down 3% for the week, everything would get slaughtered, right? Literally everything, small caps, large caps, everything would get slaughtered. With this new market, you actually, the funny thing is, if you are a permable and you're looking for bull and you're looking for loans in this market, you've actually had a lot of life, right? With this BYND, right? Huge moves, BYND with Roku's of all things, right? With Roku's, even this SOLF, right? You could chase this thing, right? There's no SOLY, actually, the stock that we just talked about. So there are pockets of strength that you could actually trade, but again, it's like trying to find a diamond, it's like literally trying to find a needle in a haystack. Again, eventually buyers get tired and eventually buyers are going to start seeing the market go down every single day to 300 points, they're going to pull their plug. And again, if you have the arrogance, and we kind of referenced this a few minutes ago, if you continue to have the arrogance that your position will not be affected, guess what? Musical chairs is real, gravity is real, and buyers do get tired. So be very, very wary of that. So going into this week, again, you have to be selfish, okay? How can you not? The greatest part about this market is very, very tradable. What we've been seeing now, especially in the live webinar, really good areas, not only of balances on the 60-minute channels on strong names, but really good rejection levels on the top of the channels on stocks below supply. And I've been tweeting this out every single day for a week. All my tweets have been saying is, how can stocks rally if everything's under supply? Think about that. If everything is under supply, every time they hit something, and they can't get it through, they keep on getting rejected and roll over. So we're expecting the same thing to happen this week. The only thing that is going to save, and it's going to sound very, very simplistic, but the only thing that's going to save the bulls if sellers get tired. Eventually, sellers do get tired the same way buyers get tired when there's a linear move to the upside. So again, can that happen tomorrow? Very possible. It could happen two months from now. Very possible in everything in between. But again, our reality versus the reality that's in front of us is completely different story, right? Completely different story. And the most important thing is you have to trade with reality and not the rose-colored glasses that you want it to happen. Because again, you will wind up in the fetal position, praying to God. And again, God doesn't care about your position. So very good week. Very, very good week, especially for you guys in a live webinar. It came in short from Thursday session with the Friday Nothing rally. That Amazon huge, right? Huge move. A gap down. I mean, who could imagine a 40-point gap down? But big, big move there. Very aggressive action. Even some longs that are actually pretty decent. But the most important part is we're trading under control. We're not trading because the market's open. We're trading because we're getting value. And the one thing that I always tell a new trader is, again, you don't need to trade every day. Again, we are trading because we have a very, very specific process. These pivots have no bias. I could have the same trade, for example, on Thursday, I put in a pivot in the morning on a 97 breakdown on BYND and went down to 93. And in the same day, we put in a pivot to the upside, 101.30 on the same stock and same interval that exploded up three points. So that's the kind of luxury we have. And I say this all the time. Yes, you might use the crutch, cash as a position, sit in your hands. But again, if this rally, I'm joking around, if this sell-off continues to have legs and we're going to go down the next month, the next two, again, how many people could actually afford to sit on their hands and keep on using the crutch cash as a position? Again, God gave you two hands, two eyes, right? Trade both sides of the market. There's a lot of value there, especially when stocks are looking to break down. So let's talk about Friday's session. Again, Friday has been very, very aggressive, very, very aggressive for a very long time. And again, we don't cherry-pick. Before you guys are watching this the first time, this is the feed. What you're looking at right now is the stock to its feed. It's exactly the same thing as the Twitter feed. We don't cherry-pick. These are the pivots. Whatever happens in the pivot happens in the pivots. And again, Friday was another aggressive day. Some names did very, very well. Some names didn't trigger. Some names only gave a little bit of cash for it. But the most important thing is we were in control of everything. So Tesla, right? So Tesla, a big trader all week. Friday, it put in a low of 183. And again, you can see a pre-market. That will be the big number to confirm more to the downside. Again, it never confirmed. But again, that's the number we are looking forward. And again, another name that we are watching, we're still watching it for Monday's session. Again, that didn't trigger, didn't confirm. But again, just because it doesn't confirm Friday doesn't mean it won't confirm Monday. So for all you guys who are long SOLY, I'm telling you right now, you can heed my warning. Even not, if this thing starts building under 17, you get a three to five point drop. I'm telling you, this is not an opinion. This is technical analysis. So make sure you listen to me. And if not, again, again, don't be mad at me. Be mad at yourself. OKTA was pretty damn good. I bought this thing on an opening range. OKTA had good earnings, had really, really good earnings. Here was the opening range high right here. And I bought it. I've never traded this. I've never heard of the stock. But we bought an opening range high. I mean, it took like two and change out of the trade, which was fine. I mean, again, I don't usually trade names that are not beta. Probably 90, 95% of my trades are beta names. But again, we didn't have a lot of value in the morning. So it was pretty good. I mean, it's opening range here. It broke it. And there it went. You know, there it went as high as 19. 16 and changes. 16 and change. Again, needs to build over 14 was really good. William Sonoma. Again, for all you guys who have never been to William Sonoma, it's like walking into heaven. I'm a big eater. I love food. So when you walk into William Sonoma, especially on the weekends, that smell. And all you guys kind of know what I'm talking about. It's so delicious. So William Sonoma, pretty good numbers. 5850 needs to build for cash flow. Here was William Sonoma. Right. Here's the 5850 and it went to 5964. So again, over a dollar move, I didn't trade this myself. Again, I really don't have interest in a name like this. VMW I traded early. I traded early because I started watching it kind of kind of not necessarily putting lower lows, but couldn't rally on spikes in the future. So I shorted it on the 178 breakdown. That was the lowest break. And once it got below 77, it went down to like 76 and change. I covered like two thirds of my position and I got stopped out and rest Netflix. Okay. And I think this is setting up to be a pretty good trade for this week. Netflix, 345 big area. If it builds below it, it can flush. Here was Netflix. Here was Netflix on the 345 right here. You can see it all right here. 345, 345 50, 345 40. Once it broke 345, it got all the way down to like 4390. But again, bounced up and I still like this trade. We'll talk about this in a few minutes. Again, gave some cash flow. Lift 5,645 needs to build. Here was the lift move right here. Here's the 5,645 right here. Excuse me. Here it is. 5,645 and it went to like 58. Almost $2 move on lift. For all you guys that took that Uber, Uber gave a small move. Didn't give a big move. 4,115, 4,120 needs to build. Here was Uber 4,115. What was it right here? 4,115, 4,120. Only went to 4,150 and then reversed. Really had an ugly reversal. So not a big move again. Not every single pivot is going to be $2,3. Again, there's going to be pivots that are going to go up 20, 30 cents and come back again. That's why you always use break even as your stop. Again, there's nothing wrong with that. Here's it. And this is kind of where you're getting more and more confidence. And this is kind of my whole point as well. Not every single pivot is going to go nuts. So here was the pivot on Tesla. 89 needs to reclaim to go higher. So if you look at Tesla on Friday, right? And again, this is why we say I don't care which way the trades, as long as the trades confirm. So here was the 89, right? So here was the 89. It confirmed it and it only went up about a buck, right? It only went up about a dollar. And again, some of you guys will take the trade. Some of you guys won't. But again, this is why we always say take cash flow along the way. Futures pulled in and the stock imploded. Again, always use break even as your stop. But that's why I still think the stock goes a lot lower. Ali bubble is not mine. And here was the pivot in the afternoon. Again, we don't care about which side. So I know the 89 pivot failed. And I basically said, listen, it failed, right? Only spiked the buck and got rejected. If a strong builds below 86, it can flush to the lows. And if you look at Tesla, right? If you look at Tesla, here was the 86, right? Here is the 86, right? Here's the 86 and once it broke the 86 and went down to like 84 and change. So again, you don't need to be tied into a position. You don't need to have a love affair with the position. You don't need to have a love affair with the story. Trade the channels. Trade the channels, stay safe, take cash flow along the way and you will be okay. So let me give you some ideas for, let me give you guys some ideas for tomorrow that I do like. I really, really do like. Number one, I like plan PLAN. Let me give you guys some worms, just in case the market is in crap out. PLAN had a really good move, really good move consolidated for a couple of days. If you look at the 16 minute view, if it starts building above this 45 area, right? Confirms this 45 area. I think it goes. Lyft actually looks pretty good. I think Morgan Stanley had a bullish piece on Lyft on Friday. I think they said a 50% upside if I'm not mistaken. So you can see how it got rejected. This is the daily chart. You can see how it got rejected into supply. If it starts reclaiming this 59 area, the high here is 58.79. The high of Friday is 58.45. If it starts reclaiming 59, it does have a measured move to 62 for all you guys who are trading for a swing position. Keep an eye on that. TTWO looks pretty good as well. Again, one of the very few standouts on the long side. It keeps on getting rejected here on supply. If it could just reclaim this 109.50.1.10, I think the stock goes higher. Let's see what else I want to give you guys. NTS, again, just like Alibaba, like every other Chinese stock. Again, obviously products of their environment right now. It's held this 246 several times. If it starts building below 246, you can see 243 and then 241. Let me see what else I want to give you guys. And you know what? The last one, again, I keep on hovering about this thing, but this is really true. Keep an eye on this SOLY. You can see here 1736 is the low here. 17 is the low on Friday. If it starts building below the 17, you potentially have anywhere between 3 to 5 points to the downside. So guys, stay safe for your new traders. Again, I want you to win, but process the information correctly. Again, everybody wants to be the smartest. Everybody wants to be the tallest. Everybody wants to be the best looking, but the reality is life is not fair and trading is not fair. And if you don't absorb all the really good information and really understand how the market structure works, unfortunately, you're always going to be spinning your wheels and getting nowhere. Guys, God bless. Have an awesome, awesome Sunday. God's help us see you all tomorrow. Take care, guys. Have a great, great Sunday. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. Take your one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault, where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.