 So I think this might be a good moment of taking questions from the audience also and there seems to be the first one Okay, they're in the back, please Thank you very much. My name is Oli Rohamaki. I'm a visiting senior fellow with the Finnish Institute of International Affairs at the moment absence of leave from the Finnish MFA I'm working currently on a piece on the narco wars, but anyway Focusing on the theme of the conference responding to crisis It often is the case that you have a political economy of conflict present in each and every case Ukraine and South Sudan and of course in the wider Middle East and it often happens is that you have a Variety of entrenched interests be political parties businesses government officials militias and what have you who Often spoil the game also and and this is actually my first question to all the panelists is is that in in in these conflicts when you're trying to Promote dialogue and this is what CMI is all about. I mean, how do you deal with the spoilers the ones that pull the rug beneath? the Dialogue processes be they be they in the incipient stages of you know the feelers or Actually moving towards the confidence building measures or actual dialogue I mean the the spoiler effect is always there how to deal with that and then I have to make a comment to mr Mr. Yes, sir. Katarik. I vehemently and strongly disagree with your point about the strength of state institutions in the Middle East my experience is that no It's not like that. Yes, I would agree that with the security sector the muhabarak They are extremely strong, but all the rest of the state institutions are extremely weak. In fact, they are in shambles I mean the ones that are supposed to Provide service delivery for the citizens. So it's about how responsive the state's institutions are Visibly the citizenry and hence they are fragile states. Thanks I'll try to be succinct. Thanks. I'm lease Howard. I'm a professor of government at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. So one of the Americans here, and I'm going to ask an American question. I don't usually do this Yeah, I'll hold it closer. Was that good? Thanks. I Was so we're talking a lot about resolving crises and talking about resolving crises from the inside out and my question for all of you is What about the role of external actors? It seems to me that civil wars begin and end an awful lot based on what external actors do in civil wars and My main question is what do you think the role of the US should be in each of these conflicts? Thanks My name is Jorge Rivera. I work for the international dialogue and peace building and state building And I have a question about the South Sudanese experience and part of what dr. Dang mentioned so at the international dialogue and peace building and state building we work in promoting this Framework called the new deal for engagement and fragile states and part of what what it seeks is to promote focusing on five peace building and state building goals now what dr. Dang mentioned was That you know around a crisis. There's several problems including things like injustice inequality weak institutions economic foundations Which can lead to a crisis and which may candle in a crisis a lot more difficult now The new deal South Sudan was a pilot country for the new deal and the process of implementing it broke down When the crisis erupted but my question I guess is what do you think that development actors can do around a crisis? to help Sort of solve the situation we tend to look at them as short-term responses particularly From humanitarian perspectives, but there's definitely a role for development actors And I was wondering what your opinion is and what they could be doing better. Thanks All right. Thanks And let's take one more and then I guess it's it might be best to start answering so that we have time Thank you. So one more My name is Winston Dukaran from Trinidad and Tobago. I'm in the former minister for an affairs and This morning. I was quite pleased to end Minister Elizabeth mentioned the peace process in Columbia as at least one shining light Within recent times and the so doing she referred to the fact that the methodology for that included the involvement of women at the negotiating table Now the peace process is still not completed Although it has been agreed to Because there has been a reaction to the fact that the justice system was being somehow being affected by Granting concessions to the rebels who will now have the right to enter into the political normal political process and Without penalty, of course and without Pardon or anything of that nature So it is indeed a complex process So the first question I wanted to ask was whether or not the composition of the mediation process For evolving a piece of such a complex situation Could be applied in say Ukraine if it is and whether it will make a difference and Secondly to dr. Den's point of more justice being the rallying call upon which competing ethnic groups Could find common ground And this is linked to my friend the last speaker from the Cmi when he said that the participatory governance Has been perhaps one way to look at that But I don't know if justice itself Is not the source of the problem because it is not easy to find common wrongs on the concept of justice and therefore there must be some way to Either through an institution or through a mediation process or through some kind of charismatic leadership To reinterpret justice to be able to allow it to be accepted by all I wanted to get your response to that in terms of social All right. Thank you very much and if we have time later on Let's take more questions, but let's start with with these and try to lead the conversation Do of course that we have time to answer so Let's start with with the last one Dr. Well, what do you think what kind of ethnic what what kind of possibilities do the ethnic groups have common grounds in situation of South Sudan I think you would be to go in for Inclusive institutions Whether he is a security sector We South Sudan we have say 64 ethnic groups But you can group them into about six major one and so if there's a formula whereby When you are doing the recruitment the security sectors Either through professional representation or some formula so that DC will see themselves in those institutions Because the moment they don't see themselves then it is injustice and that also should apply to the judiciary for instance whereby You have to incorporate the traditional system of justice and And so as you move that that should also take care of Issues of women because if we address this ethnic issues as we go The issues of land tenure system are going to come up whereby some areas in South Sudan Women do not have access To to land for instance, so some of those things need to be addressed as we go and I was The the Minister of Finance of South Africa talk in the morning Emphasizing the need for inclusive gross strategy So inclusive economic gross Is a long-term project, but it's a way to start at a very beginning, but the short-term one where I would say make sure that these The people see themselves in those institutions so that they will appreciate the justice side There were also several Questions that had something to do with say international actors in all these crises Question to to all of you. What do you think what kind of role do the international actors have in the crisis? What kind of possibilities do they have who would like to pick this question up? Okay, Joe, please Yeah, I think that came from the professor from Georgetown if I think correctly. Yeah I just happened to be in Washington yesterday Which might tell you that actually they're all of International actors and particularly the United States at least in the conflict in Ukraine is very important indeed You know the role of international actors actually depends on the nature of the conflict So, but I think I'll start with the Ukrainian conflict, which is one. I know best clearly There is a there's a there is a power balance in place Russia is undoubtedly a party to the conflict in Ukraine in the manner which it backs the Septus forces and it's it demands the action of international actors Whether it is the and to be perfectly honest something we've learned from this is the the European Union was the first interlocutor, but the European Union is ill equipped to deal with a situation such as a War or conflict in Ukraine and at that point it was necessary to have two as two other aspects brought into as International actors to try and help resolve the situation or place pressure on the aggressor. The first was that I would make As a general observation we moved away from multilateral diplomacy to bilateral diplomacy as being a means to resolve the conflict And that meant the direct participation of Germany as probably the strongest Economic state and one of the leaders of the European Union and the Anne-France in the so-called Normandy format talks Which also then included the US the US has included in discussions on the the Minsk peace agreement regarding Ukraine because The Russia sees itself as having as being a stronger nation state than any of the other European states I've mentioned beforehand and sees it as a comparator to the United States therefore without the engagement in some way of the United States As an external force in the peace negotiations the peace negotiations are certain to fail It is good that from a practical point of view the uses that the US has been Connected to the peace discussions, but I think that maybe the Russia is disappointed that that you the US hasn't taken a more prominent role Undoubtedly in the Ukrainian context there is unlikely to be a solution a lasting peace solution unless there is concerted Action externally and pressure bought to bear externally by the United States and strong European states and Thirdly the European Union, so I think that the role they play is essential at least in the context of the conflict that I'm most aware of Okay, yes, sir, please. Thank you When I heard this question by professor from Georgetown the role of the US First cross my mind is as if someone is asking what is the role of God meaning Where to start from and which US we're talking about and where? in in in a country like Jordan or in country like Egypt or in a Civil war like the Syrian or like the Iraqi or Yemen let alone the rest of the world so If if if you have enough time and strong ears We can we can talk from a local perspective about what the role of US could be but in a nutshell I think It is very important to identify that there are different us's At least to put it in the minds of now many of the people of the Arab world is that US Defense Department is different than US State Department is different than the CIA is different than the Congress is different than the presidency We used to think that it is all one us based in the White House now I think when you sit with with Diplomats from the State Department from the US AI D you listen to a Perspective that is totally different from those of certain, you know lobbies or or defense department specialists or officials and so on and so forth so basically My my suggestion would be is that Maybe if if they can coordinate among themselves, you know all these agencies seriously let alone other international actors now when you for instance, I'm engaging now in in my own country in in a strategy developing a strategy national strategy for for preventing and countering extremism for the Jordanian government and For the first thing I noticed that, you know, it's not only my government departments are not coordinating among themselves It's rather, you know the international donors and actors are not coordinating You know the US Embassy in Jordan and the UK Embassy and the EU delegation and the Norwegian Embassy and the German Embassy They're all engaging and spending money on the same topics So it's a total waste, you know, and this is back again to the issue of dealing with civil society organizations, you know, so you know it's like establishing a huge market on very sensitive issues because you know of one simple reason lack of coordination and So When we talk about the role of international actors, there is a huge role I mean, we are living in a globalized world now. So definitely Interdependence is very important and it is very basically it's part and parcel of our political life and economic lives but it is important as well therefore at least to Dissect and analyze, you know, what are the problems and what roles could be done Because we need a serious division of labor, you know And I think in the case of the US The same could be applied because you have seriously Sometimes totally different approaches coming from from from Washington itself and this is where People get confused and others take advantage of of such discrepancies and lack of coordination So, Dr. Lual, what do you think about it? Do you also see several U.S. is Questions, I would like to there was one on the spoilers. I think and then there was also the Question on South Sudan Yeah, I think the question of the spoilers is it's very critical because even if they the moment I ignored Whether in opposition or in government they would undermine any peace agreement and I've been looking at some of the national dialogues in Yemen Tunisia and In Sudan for instance But I the one of Yemen is Started well, but then the whole thing felt apart So we we need to look for a credible national dialogue Where you include at least a representative of those spoilers so that you you you provide some preventive measures in place, but that's one is Is is is critical? So we need to look for success stories yet on national dialogue where you include those on the special question for South Sudan and especially the the international community and development partners the This week There was a special hearing and the U.S. Senate foreign relations on South Sudan and There were voices in the U.S. Now calling for trusteeship Put South Sudan under UN trusteeship for 10 to 15 years But then there are some problem there because trusteeship is not according to UN Charter South Sudan is a member of the UN trusteeship usually Done for a country which is not yet a Member of the UN so you prepare so before the independence and this was a point which was missed in my view. It should have been done In 2011 After the referendum on 9th of January 2011 South Sudan should have been said, okay, you need at least 12 months To for us to build basic institutions so that you move you yes, you declare independence now You everything is in place, but then Let us wait. So we need to go back to building basic institutions in Institution of economic for instance the central bank the minister of finance the minister of petroleum because you have now the the resources have been mishandled and the role of the international Community is such a development partners in my view would be repatriation of the stolen assets because you the the One could say the fortunate part is the money which was coming to the South Sudan from 205 to to up to recently is oil money Which is In dollar times and the US has the capacity to monitor the movement of dollars in the international banking sector We are told by the UN experts Lot of millions of dollars are sitting in East Africa That money can be easily if there's a good will From the internet community to repatriate that funding back to South Sudan these third role they can also is ICC has a bad name now in Africa so you but then there is in the The peace agreement which I mentioned earlier as a reference to hybrid court Which mostly African that need to be set up quickly and To in order to try those who have committed both Humorite atrocities and financial abuses So that you sense strong signal That is not just human right abuses But also if you the question of corruption which has been mentioned several times and there was also a report I think a week ago released by Many people you know of George George Cloney the the famous actor called the century report Where they have accused the president of South Sudan prison key Following his accounts and so forth and some and also the leader of this and the project my share and some four or five generals Where they have been tracking? The accounts and if they go further there are so many politicians whose accounts are Accessible international they should be followed and quickly take them to court and repatriate the money at the same time So then you will be sending a strong signal. So it's a question of building institution at same time, but repatriate They stole an asset All right, you said you had I just want to address quickly the gentleman from the Finnish Institute for international affairs I vehemently as well and strongly understand why you disagree with me. I think both of us are looking at the issue of Institutions from different perspectives you are focusing in my opinion I think I guess on the quality of the delivery of the services and the quality of the services itself whereas for me my my my Interest is much more focusing on the structure of the institution and how much it is concretely Consolidated in terms of power struggle So definitely if I will give you a simple example if they receive Any institution and of course there are countries like Lebanon and Definitely, we will not be discussing countries like Syria. Yemen Iraq right now. Okay, but countries like Countries like Jordan or like Egypt or like Algeria or like Tunis or like Morocco Forget the Gulf, you know, where if you go to Dubai and the United Arab Emirates, you find services that are better than many countries in Western democracies so The point of this weak institutions in my opinion is a bit exaggerated and a kind of Misleading somehow that is my main point Second it really focuses on this delivery of services and the quality of services but if if you come to a country like Jordan and definitely you go there as a simple Normal citizen for any governmental department Definitely, you will not be happy and content by the quality of the services that you could receive But if they receive this same department if you receive a royal Instructions that by coincidence his majesty the king noticed that there are some complaints about certain services in certain Departments and he's really pissed off about this and he gives the instructions that you know correct your manner and behavior and Services you go there the next day or the following week and you see when once they have managed to mobilize their resources How much you know differences they could offer you in terms of services? So they have the capacity and this is where for instance when we engaged in in different projects in the region With CMI on the quality of of the governance And process of government in Jordan Lebanon and Egypt. We realize that you know all these government officials Be it Lebanon or Jordan or Egypt have no problem in really Lacking the expertise they have the enough resources to identify all the problems And they're all aware about all the problems that they are facing in their own field of expertise And they are aware of The solutions as well. So they are not expecting Yes, sir or joke or anyone to come and tell them. Okay guys, these are the solutions what they lack is tools for coordination to implement a process a healthy process of implementation and this is for instance Where it shows that each department individually and separately separately as Institution is capable of doing its job But when it comes together to come up with a jointly effort to bring along Certain high quality of services. This is where they fail and this is why I believe and I argue for the essence and importance of Pushing forward a an agenda for participatory governance, you know rather than simply talking about Services and you know It's in the speak of services is like the speak of corruption Services is a symptom if we manage to fix we will end up having the right services. So what are the Factors that basically do not allow people and citizens at the end to get good services And my opinion is not lack of resources in many cases. I'm not saying and this is where we have to The you know differentiate and distinguish between country like Jordan and country like UAE and the country like Kuwait and the country like Libya But that's another story, but at least in general we have to this basically we have to Make sure that we pinpoint the right reasons rather than just simply complain about certain symptoms That we can spend the next two decades talking about without addressing them Okay, Jock you had a point Yeah answer to a couple of the questions I think the first one was to the former former Foreign Minister of Tunedad and Tobago but the Ukrainian situation in the concept of justice It's a it's a it's a very good point and we have come up against it as a problem and it because in terms of Moving forward the Minsk process one of the aspects that will be essential is Agreeing one politically who will be able to stand in the local elections for the currently occupied territories and There are very different concepts from the parties the negotiations as to who should be allowed to stand and A related party to that is the question of amnesty perhaps the most controversial question And there are very different viewpoints from a Western viewpoint or more I think I'm going to call it sovietic viewpoint as to what amnesty means how it should be determined and It let me give you a very practical example The the the Western viewpoint how you create an amnesty is is probably that you would have a position That would state certain types of crime Or actions during a conflict that were not subject to the amnesty based on international law In the discussions that I took place it From many people's viewpoint You would list the individuals by name There is a hell of a gap in the concept of justice towards Implementation of an amnesty between a set of principles and a set of names And to find the compromise which will be necessary between the concept of names and values Will be very difficult to reach so I think this concept of trying to create common grounds For justice is one of the most difficult aspects of Implement of moving from the idea of having a peace agreement to the Implementation in the detail of the peace agreement in a manner will actually make it effective and workable On the ground in a conflict situation So I think it's a very good observation that you and a very good question you ask and it's one of the toughest questions Then it still has to be dealt with the real discussions serious discussions have not begun On that and that level what let alone has the public been addressed in order to get their buy-in To what may be very difficult decisions There was a question about spoilers and outliers Which? Yeah, you know you you need to build the tent to be as big as possible in order that Outliers where possible should be included and if they are out lie and if they fail to stay inside the idea of the big 10 and they're outside that their Decision to be outside leaves them with the risk and exposure I think there's a phrase from a great from a British Prime Minister some time ago When asked why he didn't remove very critical people from his cabinet and his it's a bit rude this phrase But it's very graphic said it is better to have them inside the tent pissing out and outside the tent pissing in Therefore, I think we're possible you want to include people where you can and if they are Excluded the risk of their exclusion is their problem not the problem of the peace process That's easy to say and again much harder to implement politically But if you have that vision in mind, then that's the way in which you reduce the risk to the peace process of The outliers and leave them as the people who are experiencing the risk All right at this point, I'd actually like to go a little bit Back in the conversation when when joke was talking about businesses as part of of actors in in a peace process What about you too? What do you think about? Is it true that businesses should or could be more used somehow can can businesses do something that For instance civil societies cannot do what do you think about this theme? Well, I I thought I agree with it. That's why I do not comment because it's I think is a new dimension Whereby Business community there is an immediate reward because businesses are different from the NGOs well Because and yours is charity is somebody else is getting the money and they become employees so in In our situation, there's now a heated argument among South Sudanese intellectual that maybe it is time to just Reduced the amount of humanitarian aid is going to South Sudan because US alone is putting in 1.5 billion dollars a year for humanitarian and we are not seeing so it creating the dependency but also has become unfortunately a business or a source of income for those who are employed in that but business community is different because is is This is money made in the right way and so enabling environment for business community in seeing that there's a political settlement and They will counteract the spoilers for instance so Business in my view become positive You can say positive spoilers in the sense of they will it is better for them to see there is peace in the country of cause As long as they are not arm dealers And and not because of Ukraine we are getting a lot of arms from Ukraine South Sudanese Getting ship. So arm dealers will not be Happy with that. They will like to see into that. There's a conflict in one way or another with its business But yes, I think And I put it back. Maybe see am I Should create You use a word hybrid before hybrid. Yeah, so maybe it is also in a time for hybrid Peace mediators where you buy acts for my presidents for my foreign ministers, but also Business community the US George Clooney is doing it, but he's doing more active his way which and I'm an economist. So I will not qualify him as a businessman. He's an actor got a lot of money But I think he didn't get it through business community. So Yes, I I see an important role, but you can start experimenting and CMI is well placed than any Institution to to begin to send business Persons into conflict resolution exercises It's relevant to make it now. And just on what you were saying, I actually I I take part in a track to program organized by CMI on on Ukraine and my job is really to is actually to do that to Take that role and in the discussions that take place I mean the other interlocutors are the ones you'd imagine think tank civil society political leadership and Part of my role in that is to talk about about business but also to represent my boss who is influential in a number of areas In the east of Ukraine, but I think it seems to be happening And I think it it is true that you know if business brings jobs It brings taxes for governments And by providing jobs and taxes and profits it creates stability So if that business any if a business is significant in a given country or along a specific Conflict then I think it can be a useful actor because it can Speak behind the scenes away from politics to convince people that that the stability and justice and movement forward Will be beneficial for all stakeholders Yes, sir I think we have to distinguish between business and businessmen There is a difference between business which in principle definitely they could have a role Very positive, of course speaking of investments speaking of foreign aid speaking, you know Good solid financial markets definitely will will play a very positive role But in reality it's totally different businessmen I don't think have always proved To have a really nice positive records when it comes to conflicts At least in The region where I come from So from that sense if I want to be also more specific We can talk about the coalition that the king Abdullah of Jordan Has established since 1999 when he became the king After the death of his father With the businessmen community and we saw the consequences, you know, and They were not really nice, you know for many Jordanians So the coalition proved to be Serious in in their negative impact that they had on Jordanians Another point talking about the role of business And the businessmen it's very Contextual in the sense of Yeah, I mean they could be you I mean in countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE Who are very much engaged on? Yemen now I think businessmen would be very useful to and could play a very important role in that sense as attract to Actors to bridge the gap between certain regional actors be it the Iranians or the Yemenis themselves Houthis, etc But the businessmen in Egypt are not going to be basically Playing a very constructive role in bridging the gap between The Ethiopians and the Egyptian government when it comes to the Nile River the dam the big dam on the Nile River Denial valley or between Let's say the muslim brothers of Egypt and the Egyptian military establishment. So It is very very much Contextual so we cannot just simply say that business sector By default would definitely always be constructive and playing a Important and positive role and I totally understand why they could be doing that in a country like Ukraine But I cannot apply the same on a country like Lebanon or or or Libya right now or even Egypt. Thank you May I continue the subject like Could you actually both of you define that in what sense talking about this this business issue Ukraine Is capable of of using business as Part of the peace process and why Middle East is not Thank you I have to say I completely agree with the essence comments There's a thing that's correct. It is contextual And I I spent five years working in the Middle East So I I know exactly what it means if you involve business in Lebanon or in Egypt in pieces of discussions That would have no credibility with the citizens And and it would be used for It is likely to be used for Pure economic gain without any benefit to the peace process itself by the manner in which they normally act an operate Uh, so I think in Ukrainian context, it's yeah, I would just say that In many countries of the post-soviet environment, which I think you're familiar with You have some very strong business people Who have benefited from the breakup of the former Soviet Union and they hold significant Economic power in those countries, but in addition to the economic power they have significant political influence And very often they have regional strengths So the reason why uh, I'm part of a track due process representing my boss and why we as a business are very active in uh In peace building is simply that, you know, our businesses are in that region There we've got so we have We're committed to it And we can only benefit by peace And we also have influence We have economic influence And we have through our web of relationships some political influence because we're a big business and a big taxpayer It will be true to say that the union Ukrainian government understands That because we're such a strong strong economic actor That we will be a bridge to a solution a future solution and reintegration Of those territories back into the country. So hence a sense that We should be included So I think it's it it is about the business culture in the country the nature of the conflict and the relationship between business and power And you're right that not not in every case can business be an actor But it's certainly I think you correctly described it. Yes, you should look at business as potentially being an actor I think Dr. Dan was saying the same thing, but it's not that we should be there are certain conflicts where there would be a conflict of interest In having business too closely associated with the peace process And that is a very complex decision to make But as one that has to be made is it good or is it bad should it be on the sideline should it be involved it is A question of choosing the right solution for the right environment you find yourself in In terms of the negotiations and discussions All right, um, and so if we have kind of two very different cases here, what about the case of south sudan You can also continue this but after that, uh, I'll ask about I wouldn't say the middle east in general I mean, I wouldn't be that you know Brave and courageous and make such a statement that business is irrelevant at businessmen Because as I said, there are certain parts of the region, especially the gulf where you could be basically Make a huge use of of the the sector in terms of peace peace building But in in in many other cases, I think the majority of the countries of the region businessmen. I think Jock said a very important Point when he said that we can only benefit in ukraine if there is peace Whereas for many businessmen in the region in the middle east They they have they don't have that that mode of functioning or let's say Philosophically, they don't function at that level because for them we can benefit more if there is peace However, we are already benefiting so there is it's not that we can only benefit and only then if they reach that You know, that's that that philosophical level that only we can only benefit from peace then I think We could any especially The history of the region, especially the islamic history is very much Filled with stories that of the role that the private sector through the so-called endowment arms of the society could play in in in in Peace building and prosperity and economy economics in general. So it is not something that is You know alien for for the region historically or even culturally, but right now Businessmen are benefiting from the the status quo so that why sometimes look at Egypt Why they should change it? In fact when when things change into the right direction Towards a participatory a democratic governments The I would argue that the main actor next to the military establishment in Egypt to bring back The old status quo was the businessman So so then how could you trust that they could always be playing? a A constructive positive role So is there any way to change that for instance like make the profits of peace bigger than the profits of of conflict? well I know Definitely there is a way but it's not a matter of If there is an answer as much as how long does it take to bring change and to change that I I with if I read if I read the the the current business sector in Jordan or in Egypt or in Lebanon These are the three countries that I could claim that I know Better than other countries in the region. I definitely would say we have to wait a long time because they have intrinsically Involved themselves with interests and agendas of business that you know fundamentally go against The will of the people, you know And I'm not a businessman. I'm not an economist. I'm not a financial analyst who could explain that I'm just speaking as an observer who see that, you know, so far, you know, they are not playing In general, of course, I'm not thinking about everyone there, but in general they are not playing a good Dr. Luol, you actually are an economist. What do you think about it? No, we well What what you already said is is correct in a way that this is not The businesses in the Arab world Mostly derive Their businesses from the status quo so So you can't define them as a normal business people Which is different from other places, especially when In the case of ukraine job was talking about at their employees over 300,000 It's already a big impact to turn over of 34 billion dollars a year That's already a big in the case of south Sudan You have to look at the sector South Sudan is the oil sector, which is a lead sector But that oil sector Is state-owned companies from Asia Chinese Malaysian and indian those three Big giants, they are state-owned So there the they are not businesses per se And and and and and for them they're more Driven by their state by their their governments So China is already part of the The the country is trying to help Bring peace south Sudan as a state. So we don't have that business People per se but maybe is to talk the joke that especially when it is his it's a Capital investment Is to advise you to say come to south sudan and maybe Have some investment in the oil sector or in agriculture Maybe they can have influence Or at the same time also ask the wealthy From the emirates for instance who are interested in agriculture because south sudan is a large land and whereby they can also Want to invest in agriculture So in that way, maybe there could be businesses Who will be looking at those? Yeah, so I was in more nearer to yours. I think in case that there's no business person per se in south sudan, which can contribute to us peace All right, chok. What do you think about can you respond to that? I think that One of the One of the dividends that comes with peace Is increased foreign direct investment I was talking about that in washington yesterday and it is this idea that you know if you and so business can be influential in helping To do that and it can offer the opportunity to help a country Trade its way into a better environment a better economic based stronger stability By offering the opportunity to increase the fdi the two big benefits for peace that come That come from the financial sector. I should actually I'm also an economist by training That's a bit of a bit of an economic mafia, but the fact is that If you can create a peaceful solution then you attract fdi and fdi then has a strong benefit and Transforming the economy particularly if the government is an effective government in ensuring that that benefit of fdi is shared with citizens and doesn't go Unduly into the pockets of a few individuals In addition to that as most countries that have been affected by conflict Require a significant investment in infrastructure And therefore they require to borrow in international capital markets There is a significant peace dividend in reduction of the borrowing costs in global capital markets For that for for that For that country and the third aspect is international financial institutions In that the investment placed into countries who are recovering from conflict By if is a significant and you will find that commercial Banks will follow if is into the country and if is are always talking about how much capital they can leverage And typically they'll be looking to leverage capital if they put an eight million They'll be hoping that they might get 28 if they put an eight billion they'll be hoping they might get 24 billion In effect in effective investment. So that's eight billion of their money plus 16 billion coming from the private sector and from commercial financial institutions or from other International institutions to back up the ifi money. So there is definitely an investment dynamic or transformational dynamic and a peace dividend That comes if you can if you can set that agenda And one one quick comment to me. Someone asked a question about Development, I think I wrote it down as the third question. What can Development actors do in a crisis? And I don't think we actually answered that person's question But as I happen to have been a meeting last week when we're looking at what is the with the United Nations humanitarian country team in ukraine one of the aspects we were talking about is how how do you use development? and I think Developments are a very very development finance is very important in this question of the transition between Humanitarian early recovery and recovery is crucial to help countries in a pathway to establish, you know A peaceful solution and and how Development helps and the first instance is definitely the biggest problem that I see and I'm not sure about other conflicts But the biggest problem I see is How do you help people who have been made homeless or had to move and No longer have a job. How can you how can they get back into the productive economy? And become contributors and the that area the gap the area between early recovery and recovery that helps Guarantee and support income generation for citizens. That's really where development can make its strongest and earliest contribution to the peace process Um, you know this this saying about Um curse of natural resources that uh Almost every country that has a significant amount of natural resources ends up to some kind of power struggle about it And if we combine it with with some of you noticed in the beginning about the fragility of the state You can accept Well, some kind of problems At some state. Do you think there is any way to to avoid this kind of trouble? And and do you agree that uh, natural resources can be uh, somehow a trigger for for power struggle An arab from the middle east, you know, it's it's you know It has always been the case for us. You know, it's it's uh, you know, I guess Both my colleagues with that this time, but does it mean natural resources for us? And definitely the simple answer would be definitely yes, of course petrol and oil and Sudan by itself is a case by itself, you know, so it is It is beyond question that, you know To the level that they started to think it has been a curse rather than any source I understand that the the point like being is that Is there anything that can be done to the structure of the states? To kind of prevent or at least reduce this kind of trouble that well I think in in all the cases we can see the same same to some extent also In the case of russia and ukraine It is one of the big thing. So what do you think about it? Well, quickly speaking, I think this could be addressed by a country like Ukraine and Or other countries who are, you know, for them a crisis or a conflict is is not the norm Whereas for many countries in the region, you know, it is the norm. So basically such a question would sound a bit, you know strange in the sense that, you know We are used to, you know dealing and handling conflicts and For instance, a country like Jordan has benefited a lot From from conflicts around since 1940 actually since 1925. I would argue You know, and this immigration issue for us Jordanians have always been An advantage somehow be it the Syrians in the in the 20s Palestinians in the 30s and 40s You know, again the Palestinians in the 60s and 70s Some Lebanese in the 80s and then all the Palestinians after the first Gulf War in the 90s But only recently, you know, because of the so-called, you know, neoliberal economic Approaches that the Jordanians have adopted as, you know, governmental institutions In dealing with atrocities Economic atrocities in Jordan I think they they have been a kind of certain mismanagements when it came to the issue of Iraqi inflation influx and and right now the Syrian But I would argue I'm not an economist and many Jordanian economists would hate me for saying that But I would look at the Iraqi immigrants 2005 And the the Syrian right now As a very huge potential In terms of human resources for Jordan as well Yeah, but it requires the right management So in in general to answer your point in general, I think there could be situations where conflicts could be for other countries I mean neighboring countries that is not the case for Lebanon, for instance, but for us Jordanians we we managed to Despite all these calls for help and support I I don't expect that they wouldn't say that but I would argue that they had been somehow positive in essence Or could be positive Yeah, I think it's true that natural resources can be seen as a curse and My first observation would be that what happens is when you have lots of oil Or other natural resources oil or gas most typically but others such as coal or iron ore Is that you you become over dependent as an economy on that natural resource The money flows freely during a period of time You don't take the opportunities to diversify your economy And the Arab case which I think is one of the biggest problems in the Arab world is actually the best The best natural resource in the Arab world Are the people But instead most countries view it as petroleum And fail as a consequence because in fact if you'd applied education as equally as they'd applied Exploration for petroleum the Arab world would be richer and stronger And less torn by conflict Russia is another example where a failure to diversify has led to you know a petrodollar economy that is unstable And that instability then sometimes leads to looking externally Reasons to explain lack of success and a necessity to go on adventures Ukraine actually is quite is rich in natural resources But not not the type of natural resources that are in much great demand It's rich in it's particularly rich in coal and iron ore Which you can package together and sell globally is steel which is actually the core of our business But that is a very that that is much more prone to global business cycle and less stable On the other hand it does mean that you don't necessarily diversify as quickly as you should So I think that the natural resource the only successful natural resource economy Is probably norway And I would just point out that norway has strong institutions strong democracy Excellent living standards well educated citizens Strong rule of law and a strategy for its future. All of those are in effective terms missing for most petrodollar economies Dr. Lowell I thought I was going to hear from the The audience you don't have much time because Yeah, I think I saw some hands up before maybe absolutely. Yeah, yes, okay So we have still some some time Yes I'm sorry, I don't speak He would like to talk about southern southern I come from the central african republic I'm a sudans neighbor Is it like that having our country's natural resources that these are the source of conflict Because in my country we have oil Diamonds Gold And many resources mineral resources And like it has been 30 years We have the war Is it like the mineral resources that create the the war? Thank you. Thank you very much Well, my my name is bonny how fico from Namibia um, I'm from a country that also came out of conflict for many years As being part of southern africa We are in the 70s we were all Involved in the Conflict, but that is a different maybe conflict because it was occupation. It was Colonial But when you look at that history also What it could be said he is Were colonized because maybe there were natural resources Interest of those who were colonizing us But After independence that came as a result, of course of the united nations un Resolution 435 which was in the implemented by the united nations and the matthiasary president of finland We have never seen war since then But we still have natural resources Yeah, it could be of course, but I think it's also about the People being left out or think they are left out You can have resources, but if you manage it and spread it properly And have a given taking situation that the majority take all but consider the other opinion I think you can fairly well Praise the country and that's what has been happening in amoeba since 1990 You have to allow freedom. You have to allow the opposition to have their say you have to Spread and you have to take everybody's concern into consideration. It's also one of those Good Consideration that can stabilize the country Thank you Absolutely You're correct And maybe you do not want to mention the word leadership Which is part of the institutions leadership You could see what And I don't want to hurt anybody, but you can see what happened to Zimbabwe Zimbabwe was relatively richer than Namibia But see how uncle Mugabe Has run down the economy to his needs Again, it applies to question from our colleague from Central Africa Because the country is rich very rich So if people are Desatisfied with the capital Bangi they go to the rural areas and take care of themselves. They don't care about what is happening And in the capital And and this is what also has caused problem in In in in Congo dr. Congo Because very rich The country and so people If you are dissatisfied with the capital you go to the rural areas and you live on And while others continue looting so question of institutions and leadership And which one come first One will say it depends on the situation But I would my preference would be leadership first because leadership is the one which billion institutions allow Space for people to have different opinions and you know in how the country is is governed So central Africa dr. Congo and now south Sudan is a question of leadership, you know, we started um, I was in government before the the The the suppression of south Sudan. I was five years a state minister of finance in Khartoum and And when I sit back some of my colleagues said you made a mistake because you allowed the money to come to the south during my period About 10 billion dollars went to south Sudan dollars And these are people who who came from the pushes And suddenly a lot of money and no accountability And because we lost um The person who was behind all this John Garen just died seven day. I mean three weeks Into the peace agreement because had he lived that would have been a different different situation So leadership is key in my view and I want to emphasize that one is where the problem is and you already seen the the the founder of cmi What he did in In Namibia and also in Tanzania when he was there Well, so leadership matters and responding to the crisis But also in the proper utilization of natural resources Again, I think is the case also in in Norway I think with those if there was not that leadership with channel at the very beginning, you know, put the money aside into Investment funds That was a correct decision. There's a leadership Which made no way to be different than others and by the way even the if you look at the Abu Zabih in the in the Gulf state I think Abu Zabih is also is Is doing well and so is the the Dubai itself Dubai has no no oil but If you can correct me, I think Sheikh Muqtoum or Weber who was As the founder of Dubai, he was smart And he opened up allow The joke. I don't know what is correct But they were saying the people did not want when he opened up the land and allow foreigners to invest And there was a complaint. So he he he told his subject. He said You tell me when you see somebody carrying the land with a He's been taking or building carrying the building with him or with her That's being smart. And so Dubai now is one of the areas whereby Well developed and against leadership I was told that the revenues for Dubai from Emirates airlines is bigger than the revenues from oil Just to tell you All right I think we are almost filled our time already. Do you have some final comments you'd like to make? There Or is everything already said in that case? Okay. Well, it's to To thank the audience for being patients and listening to us. I don't know whether they We communicate well, but also to thank you the share for facilitating and CMI and for inviting us to to participate and This is what I can say at this point I would just like to echo the comments that you said which is you know, if you want to try and get solutions to these Problems it's usually or avoiding the problem in the first place if you want to avoid the conflict and then solve it It's usually about those two questions leadership and institutions If you have those problems are often avoided. If you don't have them, they will certainly be encountered All right Thank you all very much. This has been really lively interesting conversation and thank you to to the audience also. Thanks