 Let's get over to our members to Tim or as we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour And you can reach Tim every trading day folks at odd Dash oracle.com. That's odd dash oracle.com Tim. Oh, you hit it out of the park man Hey, thanks for having me on again running out. I think you were five charts and actually I want to look at the the The weekly gdx chart first And Anyhow this this chart goes back to like 2010 and I what I did And the bottom I'll describe the indicators. This is a weekly chart in the bottom I showed this chart before on this show. Yeah, the bottom chart is the gdx up down volume percent And that's a cumulative I took the cumulative of that chart on the weekly time frame, okay the next next chart up is the gdx advanced decline percent and I took the cumulative of that and Basically since 2023 It kind of went sideways. It did but when it closes above the mid Bollinger band It's usually a buy signal and when it closes below it's usually a sell signal kind of so what I'm trying to do is catch The trend here. Yes, and if you notice previous signals, they work out pretty well It was once those two indicators are below the Bollinger bands a good sell signal a lot of times But sometimes you get in these markets that are kind of up and down up and down up and down And I circled the last one that happened that was in like 2016 we kind of went up went back down. I say I got going to the upside Then that ran into a cell signal in in late 2020 late 2020 or January 2021 It gave a pretty good cell signal even though the market on gdx went sideways Internally the market You know there's the gold or the gold sox in gdx went right to the floor, right? Is this pretty much measures? the I guess the acceleration to the downside of most color both socks did in that time frame from the cell signal 2021 until basically January of 2023 You know 90 I don't know what exact percent it was but majority the gold sox went through the floor. Yes And and that's using a good sign Once you find the next low right because everything's been destroyed I mean is sure they're not gonna go down anymore. So it's kind of a good deal. So now we're getting that You know since basically January You know we got up we got down we got up and right now of the weekly cumulative I Advanced decline is Above the blow it's on it's a little bit above the mid-bullinger band Which is on the buy but on the bottom there the up down volume is still below But the Vans decline is really the market. I mean if the motor socks are going up and down I don't care what up point down down volume says because you got more stocks going up Then you're getting the bull market, right anyhow, we've been kind of flipping sideways here And mostly signals I Timed those signals in the past mostly signals when they do occur. They're about a year and a half two-year signal And in particular Tim, you know I'm sorry in particular to because we went sideways for three years This should be a you know a longer time frame, right the long ego sideways or the long base out, right? Right. Yeah. Yeah, if you go sideways for a month You know, you don't expect a rally to last a year, right? But you go sideways for a year you can expect a rally to last a year or maybe even longer Yes, so it's all about base building here, right and and that's what's kind of happening here So I think an important signal is going on here. I don't think it's just going to be a Well, we're having a rally right now I think the last possibly in October but in general I think we're gonna start something a little bit bigger similar probably I don't know like 2019 or 2016 type rally Yeah, and I think they're going to be real meaningful because of what's been going on here with this chart So let's look to the next chart. Okay and the next chart is Gdx advanced the bottom window is Gdx up-down volume Yep percent and it's a 50-day moving average And I screwed around with these different moving averages and tried different combinations of the up-down volume and advanced client indicators And they seem to work best over You know why I could think of this chart or these type of indicators won't go back to 2010 So I couldn't go back 50 years, but going back, you know what 12 years that's right That's because the Gdx has only been in place since 2010 right which is cool, right? Yeah, but anyhow, so you know the bottom window is the Seems to work the best anyhow, when you get the 50-day average of the up-down volume percent below minus 20 You're you're gonna go sideways or up the down is over, you know So everybody hit the market hard, you know all the cell and it's done So here's gonna go sideways a lot of times it does build a base or it's going to reverse start going up and So I'm thinking If you notice that indicator has been going up. I don't have the exact date here, but it looks like Well, I think it gave it a June June bicycle mid-June bicycle Yes, I'll have the exact date there putting out it at a bottom in June has turned up since it's been going up So it's now it's flipped to The short-term indicator and this is the same indicators, but on an 18-day average, okay, and The blue area It's noted when both indicators or you know the blue area is when both indicators are above Minus 10 and when it's below minus 10, that's when it's pink. I see and so The minus 10 it seems to be that the numbers not zero, but minus 10, right? So we flipped above actually the last show I think we talked about this indicator We did and I told you what turned up and turned back down, right? I'm thinking you know what to start hanging around that minus 10 area It started is going to go up because it just really doesn't stay there too long It either makes its mind up going up or going back down Well last Thursday, you know it turned down right I think the day later it turned back up and now it's staying up as long as this indicator stays above Minus 10 again, you know consolidate and go back and test that you look back in December, you know of last year, you know We've kind of got to that minus 10 level a couple of different times the state above it and the rally continues So long as this indicator stays above minus 10 The rally should continue. I also want to note that these alley turn bullish July 7th that runs into October 7th. So yeah, I'm thinking That adds to the I guess the bullishness of this rally And how high will go don't know I think we'll least break above the previous highs which is up around 36 I think we may even go higher. I don't know but even though when this indicator just turned down say later this year because it's more or less a Monthly I see I hear your music Folks we're just gonna take a quick break Tim's gonna be right back with us We have the now they're running this market man We have the Dow industrials up 69 and Aziz up 226 S&P's are up 37. Tim and I are gonna be right back folks Welcome back folks at our Dow industrials up 72 you get an ASIC up 226 S&P's are up 37 We're talking what I'm at. Mr. Tim wood. You can reach Tim folks every trading day at or d dash oracle or CLE Com that's or dash oracle dot com right now. We're talking about the gdx. Okay, Tim. We're ready Right remember I don't remember this back in April If you look at let's look at the chart first but back in April if you notice the The bottom window is the at 18 day average of them down a volume and reached over 40 and the next one up Which is the But the rather advanced decline 18 day average advanced client is in the bottom window which reached over 40 in April there Looks like pretty much April 1st. I see that yeah window up Yeah, and the next window up is the 18 day average up down volume Which we try which also reached over 40 back in look like a but you know April 1st, you know, maybe give or take But I said on we were talking I said that you think I went back in history with back 2010 And when that happens you both those indicators get over 40 a surge pattern happened Or right after that the market kind of peaked and Solidated since then now we were back on a buy signal or a search patterns really leads powerful rallies Similar to the one we had like 2019 and 2016 so I'm thinking this one we're in right now Since the other the other two did search patterns And they really had powerful rallies. I think this one probably will too So I'm thinking we're going to break above 30, you know the previous highs of 36 and probably get somewhere in the 40s on Gdx, I'm thinking 40 44 45 up in that range and Start out that there's a lot of good stuff, which makes sense 40 45 is the high of 2020 Say it again 45 4578 it's the high of 2020 Okay, yeah, $45 is the high of the we're gonna take a leaf a good shot at that right which is sweet No, I'm with it right. Yeah Yeah, so I'm thinking with I guess the stars are aligned on a on a bigger time frame or immediate term prime frame and Especially on a short term time frame, right? So the this current rallies is it will probably see some sort of high in October You'll see another consolation the consolation I think instead of the market getting the crap beat out of it, which is already have if you look at that first chart I showed you, you know that's 2021 January the market really got the crap beat out of it. Yes, we're done I think going down we got a base building period going on right now on the bigger time frames on on this weekly Gdx cumulative chart So I think we're building cause here So I think next you know like one and a half years It's gonna be those stocks are gonna be pretty much in favor So and I don't know if you saw this today yet, but this dollar is getting absolutely destroyed Tim the dollar The dollar index broke out its lows of a monster consolidation, you know, it already broke par and This is the DXY so and three days The DXY kind of went from like 103 to 99 and it looks like the next move looks like it's gonna be down to 89 So, you know, that's that the stars are there with us also Yeah, yeah, I totally agree. I don't follow the dollar You know to me. I'm always I come a simpleton. I try to keep as simple as I can. I'm with you I get it so but yeah, there's a lot of things affecting that but The whole thing here is we got really advanced decline. We got up down blowing matching Yes, kind of all three time frames. So it should be a really a I'm hoping that you know Next year year and a half be a fun period But if you ever look at the bigger big time frames of golden stocks are cyclical Right go up for a couple three years. Yeah, they come right back down again Right go up a couple three years and they come right back down again. So, you know So wherever this next cell signal is, you know on on the bigger time frames You bear pay attention because I think of you know, they all come back out yet again But now I get that quote folks that quote that Tim just said because Tim I totally agree I've said it many times and you know, it's so sad to me Tim is that there's so many gold Bugs, I mean we trade gold. Okay, and there's nothing wrong with a gold bug But you got to sell because the bottom line is that there's a lot of money when these things go up But they are cyclical and they go back down period. There's no doubt about it That that's what makes them so much fun But if you don't sell it is no fun, man, you know because you know Yeah, you had all this money in your account and they don't sell and it's like, okay, man And then all of a sudden it's down to the lower price again. So Wow, yeah, but the thing about gold sox too, I mean when they run They they they don't you know, they do 10 20 30 40 50 times Yes, and I remember bgl when I first my big hit back in yeah I don't know 2000 I bought that thing at a quarter went to 16 dollars. I know man Oh, so I sold before yeah, I can get six but I did buy it at around a quarter 28 27 Oh, yeah, we did I think I got out of 32 cents. I mean remember we had bg o that's when CD That's when quarter lane was actually a good one to CD that they blew their brains out But yeah, we I think we get there that that was that was pretty intense man. There's no doubt Yeah, there's 10 so it's why I'm saying here when they run they run right and so but they don't run forever They don't they don't that's it's not like an apple Then I you know you're only gonna make so much money in the gold market But you're gonna make it very quick folks. That's that's the point here Okay, so let's go to the next shot. All right Yeah, next year. This is kind of a warning shot over the valve here I guess okay, but this this chart is the second window up from the bottom is just a 10-day average of the Arms index or trend t r.i.m. Okay. Yeah Shaded that area between 90 and a 90 and 80s a 10-day average so every time This indicator got to minus 90 or lower I drew a red line And so there's a lot of red lines going all the way back to looks like about mid 2019 So it's kind of a short-term indicator, but it does give pretty good signals So all those red lines usually at a minimum usually market just stalls and sometimes they they pick out major highs And so yesterday we're at a point nine today point nine five But we're kind of in an area where it's it's it can get Dangerous, you know point nine This is a minimum So it's do you you get cell signals off? It's not really it just tells you where you are in the market It gets tricky. Yeah. No, I'm with you. I got it. I trust me. I got it Yeah, yeah, so Let's look to the next year. Okay So, you know, so you got a warning sign there. Okay, this chart is actually it can it can Whoops, I did the wrong shirt This is the wrong time, didn't you? No, actually I did. This is right. This is right. I like I kind of added to it I'm not sure why I sent you but this this chart is a chart that I Really pick out highs and okay. Yeah, just Tim. Just hold that thought for a second. We got another quick break We'll come right back. That's that's that's a good tease folks Okay, because it's gonna be the top-picking chart. This this is a Tim or Tom O'Brien We do appreciate your growling a problem with us out here We have the now industrials right now trading up 73 Nasdaq's up to 29 S&P's up 38. We'll come right back Welcome back folks a doubt down just shows up 85 Nasdaq's up to 35 S&P's are up 40 we're talking about Tim I mean, it's the Tim or it can reach Tim every trading day at odd dash oracle comm We are talking now the S&P. Okay, Tim. I got this shot up, right Did I think you over another chart that's Tommy and sense Jacob. Oh, that's you did Okay, I'm put that one up. No, we'll get it. Yep. Absolutely one second Did you send it to me to or just them? Yeah, I sent it to all three of you. Okay. Cool. One second Is it the um, okay once I got out to more Sorry one second That's right. That's all right. Let's see the one I have up here is top-picking weekly S&P with the VIX Yeah, with the SP X be a VIX Higher high you can pull it when you out. Did you get it? Yeah, I think I have it up That's what I yeah, that's what I get up S&P higher highs and SPX VIX ratio, right? Right, right. Okay. The bottom window is a VIX anything below 17 yes, I have it in trending mode. Okay, and and so far, you know today when I blew this chart up Type this chart out the 1329 That remains bullish But what I really want for it is the next chart up from the bottom this a second window up from the bottom Yes, which is it the SPX VIX ratio, right and so the VIX really kind of gives you a warning That a top may be showing up. Okay, the VIX starts going up and the SP years The SPX is both going up. That's usually a bad sign and Right now over the last couple of weeks The S&P's has made higher highs and also that ratio has made higher highs Had that ratio made lower highs that would be the time there it to possibly Sell your position or looking even at your short position. Okay, this is great to know So right now and that's that's the ratio I'm waiting for trust me because let me tell you something. It's really hard for me to buy this market But I've been following this thing man. So it's a trip up at these levels, right? It's like man, oh man I you know, but the bottom line is that this so this thing is still higher the ratio is still higher, right? Yeah, right. Yeah higher. Yeah, you know, I'm thinking well, you know, it's you know, I'm getting ready to sell You know, no, it's a I don't know. I mean maybe you know normally when these highs occur Nobody believes you anyhow. I know I know and it takes takes, you know, it takes guts It's you know step in front of a train. Hopefully it's going to stop before it hits you Seriously, so you gotta, you know, wait for these signals to occur and You know, nothing's perfect, but there's two indicators here that suggest this market still can move higher It'll change all of a sudden Right But I don't you know, I think this week safe next week is option expiration week which normally means bully So we was waiting to see but as said right now, you know, I've been long for a while Yeah, and at the moment, I don't see a reason to sell that position. So Um, you know, sir, the season alley turns berries, uh, july 27th. I think it runs into october 27th So I think we'll still have kind of a rough summer But the gold issues will probably really be outperforming You know the s&p, so that's probably the place to be And the equity markets, you know, we could see I don't know what type of decline Or it may be just a sideways market. We'll have to wait and see but right now remains bullish Yeah, and you know, it's amazing tim is that the actually when we were talking on the phone too But to let the the you know listeners know what happens is that the fed meeting folks is july 26th And the rebalance inside the ndx 100 is july 27th So it's ironic that that lines up with Maybe the beginning of a you know a bearish of at least well lines up with a a bearish cycle Let's put it this way, you know, so yeah, but guess what it's only july 13th right now, man We could be up another 100 s&p points before that Yeah, yeah, we said we don't know so but you know you play the numbers and stuff and so this is what this game's about Yeah and uh so Yeah, this is pretty cool, man. I I get it. So the middle of that big retracement week the weekly s&p Oh, I got it too. It's the weekly s&p. That's what you're looking at too, right? Right. Yeah, this is the weekly. So I traded with the daily Stuff and you know You know, this is not in book. That's the trouble. You have to go figure this stuff out yourself Right, right, which is so cool. Right. There's a lot of different stuff and And uh, you know trends your friends stuff and you know and so you had to I started playing around with vixx vixx had a lot of information in it It's just trouble trying to find out how to get it out of it, you know, right? So Uh, but you know, you don't really want to get too bearish here until that vixx starts rising Yes, and I don't know when that's going to come but Evidently the smart money thinks it can go higher and that's keeping the vixx down. So We'll wait until you know, they decide that we're probably near some sort of a high. So it's It's uh, you know to look back in history here, you know every time that thing was, you know, where it is right now The market really in generally just stayed higher. Yes, right at the end and That ratio that vixx starts going up and that ratio starts going down And I thought last week when that ratio we had a little minor consolidation And the spx vixx ratio did turn down Which I uh noted I think on our last discussion I'm thinking well, this could be it Well, it turns out mark once new high and also that ratio went to new highs, right? So I'm thinking well, that wasn't it, you know, it's wild tim. So check this out folks. And I remember this so well July 14th of 1998. Okay We were on the air you and I Was on the air I used to have a home down in Menempshire harbor Okay, and I was doing the program if you ever saw jaws folks. Okay. I was out on the deck Doing the program live And that's when the market had the asian contagion And I remember it so well because so picture it what I had to do I packed up my stuff I had a boston whale jumped in the whaler Uh Went over to Falmouth getting my car and came all the way back because that was the beginning Of the downtrend from july 14th going all the way to october And then member in october that's when we were on the air And then you said to me I gotta get off the air because I gotta buy this market because that's that's when alan greenspan And uh rubin came on the air and took interest rates down by two Two 200 basis points at two percent at three o'clock in the afternoon So i'll never forget july 14. Isn't that crazy? Yeah, I remember that because uh, it was it was about half hour before the close I think we were talking and right and you had some other guy on there too Yeah, we had we had mark and we had pita. There's three of us. There was three of us on there. We were trading lives. Yeah And uh, you know, I went on and you know got off and thinking I was trying to That back then you had two two computers, you know, remember those Yes, yeah, uh cpr. I don't know what you call those things. That's right. You can really see very well with them Right, and I was trying to put the orders and we were talking up thinking Yeah, I could hang up here because I was buying call options right right right trying to get in there And and actually that was the low that was the low. I think that was the low And then mark never turned back. No never did man Well, listen, man tim it's always a pleasure, man And uh, we'll talk to you next week. Okay All right, sounds good. Have a great one, man. Have a safe one Don't forget folks. You can get a hold of them at or or dash oracle.com. Stay right there folks. Come right back