 There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas. With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors, users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time. If you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet or discuss your trading ideas with other reputable investors, click the link below and get connected with a trading mentor today, completely free of charge. Alright, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful holiday, also had a great New Year's Christmas. If you celebrate that, all that good stuff. Market was very slow last week as expected and now we're actually getting into the beginning of the year where there might be a lot more activity and volume in the market especially this week we do have a lot of data coming up. If you're tuned in last week we actually had some pretty good setups for how slow the market was. UPST was probably the best one for the puts. It just took the whole week to finally break down. On Friday it broke the structure low. It was down like 10% so the puts printed pretty hard as well as UNG had a pretty good week as well. It dipped first thing on Monday, had a gap down, gave a nice discount, had a pretty nice run up and as well now the natural gas futures are up about 6% so that should continue into tomorrow as long as it holds overnight. So there was some good setups last week. You just have to kind of be selective with what you're trading. The index is not so much as very choppy, basically unchanged from the week prior. So for this week on the economic data side we do have S&P Final US Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday so pay attention to that at 9.45. Wednesday we do have a Fed Speaker. Not sure if this is really going to have that much impact on the market. It's Tom Barkin speaking at 8.30 and then we also have the Jolt's Job Openings at 10. This is going to be the most important as well as the ISM Manufacturing. These two can move the market very big and then to add onto that at 2pm we do have the Minutes from the Fed's December meeting coming out. A lot of times it can move the market but it's really dependent on if we missed anything and we see anything new in black and white that we didn't hear at the press conference. So the market can take Jerome Powell's words at a completely different meaning than what's actually written down and that's when it can kind of impact the market if they see anything different in black and white. So that's what the Minutes will be. It's basically just a summary of what went on for the last meeting. And then Thursday the most important is going to be the S&P Final US Services PMI that's going to be at 9.45 and then we also just have the usual initial jobs claims. But the PMIs always have a chance to move the market, manufacturing or services. And Friday the biggest one of the week we do have the non-farm payrolls also getting the unemployment rate and also US hourly wages. So that's going to be huge and then also at 10am the ISM services can move us pretty big as well. So a couple PMIs this week we got ISM services. We got lots of labor data coming in, we got the Jolt's Job Openings and also the Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, so lots of important data this week. And onto the seasonality we actually have a pretty quiet week to start out in this 10-year data set. You can see it's actually kind of flat. The summarized profit from these last 10 years, negative 1%, winning trades 56%. If we bump this up to 15 years it kind of changes it a little bit. Just depends. We got winning trades at 64% and we do have a little slight uptrend here from the 2nd to January 5th which is our trading week this week. If we bump it up to 20 years it changes it again. Going to 53% winning trades to the long side we do kind of have a little uptick but nothing crazy kind of similar to the 10-year pattern kind of choppy sideways. So we'll see how that goes. Seasonality not really seeing anything huge here but it is the beginning of the year and we can't see that uptick in the market because we see a lot of rebalancing at the beginning of the year in portfolios, money managers, lots of big names. You'll start to see a little bit of rotation into new things, a little bit more volume in the market maybe. So we'll see. Everybody's kind of coming back from holiday so we'll see how that goes. And on to the setups. I do have three this week to go over. Our first one here we're looking at Baidu. It's pretty straight forward breaking out of this wedge. It looks pretty bullish for a potential bounce. You got a test one, test two, looks like a try to come up for a test three. We don't have a test three rejection on this trend line so it's a hit or miss if this is actually a good breakout or not but it is pretty clear that it is breaking out of something here and it's starting to curl up as well as you do have this lower trend line, test one, test two, test three. So you do have three confirmed tests on this bottom one. So that's a pretty good sign for the uptrend. Starting to poke out now, holding over the moving averages. You got the 92150 on the same spot here. We are over all those. Max upside I could see for now. I'll need to see a get over this is the 200 EMA, which is your green and red dots right here. This little green is signaling a positive crossover to the upside. So that's good. Volume is not horrible. The last two bars above average. So it looks pretty good. Obviously China comes with the risks right now. Lots of macro risks in terms of their economic data coming out, their real estate, lots of kind of looming stuff and their economy, but they kind of have been laggards. So I feel like people are trying to catch back up like Baba. We had Baba a couple of weeks ago. I was looking for upside. It's finally starting to get that nice uptake. I took profit a little bit early in my Baba calls, but still running now and lots of other Chinese names are doing pretty good. The HSI index starting to kind of try to find the bottom, but nothing crazy yet. So Baidu looking at calls. This little breakout is pretty nice, obviously invalidation. It starts going back within the downtrend line. Probably if it breaks under this uptrend line completely, you'll need to start looking at something else, maybe just being careful if it starts breaking down here because that could invalidate the thesis on the short term. And then like I said, first price target, overall price target even probably this one 2317, but overall the 200 EMA on the one day. So watch that level. So that's for Baidu looking at calls. And on to number two, this is S-Bucks or Starbucks, kind of similar to Baidu, I guess, breaking out of a downtrend line. We do have a test one, test two, had a small test three candle rejection right here, nothing crazy. And you can see the breakout isn't that crazy yet either. So this makes me think it could have a little bit more room to kind of get more of that euphoric move on this breakout because you really haven't seen much. I mean, even the volume on this breakout was nothing. We still got price trending under the nine and 21 EMA, the 50, the 200, all your moving averages are in the way. So that's kind of a risk. You got the MACD negative, as you can see right here. We will want to see that curl up eventually that can bring a signal. Once people see the MACD go positive, you'll start seeing a little bit more momentum in the name, more likely than not. You also have it holding this 94 85 short term support. So this was established right here, had that short term bounce. And then you have multiple days of just basically holding and consolidating off of this. So it's holding and then obviously this gives you a super obvious risk off level. So if it starts breaking under 94 85, that's your clear risk off level and your plan could change. If it starts falling back within the downtrend line as well, that could also change your plans. So I feel like this is pretty straightforward as well as the risk to reward is pretty straightforward. If it just breaks under 94 85, which is relatively close to 96 right now, or breaks under the downtrend line that's kind of giving you that area to go ahead and just look at something else. And as well, if you enter around this area, if it goes under 94 85, the loss really wouldn't be that bad if it fell under support because it's relatively close to it still. So pretty good risk to reward here to go up price targets. You'd probably have to consider the 200 EMA overall, which is your one day moving average right here, your green and red dots, watch that and the 50 together. Those are your longer to medium term moving averages, but overall it will need to get back above these to start seeing that trend to the upside. So you just got to be careful on the one day. If you're buying below your moving averages, you got to be really careful. Pay attention to each close. If it starts looking like it's going to reject hard off the 21 or the 50, it might be time to either take profit or just start being careful. So overall just watch the 50 and the 200 for a price target. It's probably going to be about 98 bucks or something like that. So there's not huge upside here in terms of profit, but it could be a nice little scalp or some type of short term move up to supply even, which really meets right with the 200 EMA. So that's going to be right at the 98. So just watch that area. It's giving you about two points, you know, reward here for a little bit of maybe like a dollar, 15 cents for risk to the downside. So that's for S bucks, looking at calls. Maybe it can catch back up with the market. Obviously this has been a lagger. So I would like to see some lagger names catch back up because it's really hard to buy indexes right now at, you know, at its highs. So that's for S bucks, looking at calls, just maybe be patient, be careful of the one day moving averages like I showed you. We are trending under both of those at the same time right now. And last but not least, I was kind of skeptical I'm looking at shorts this week just due to the seasonality kind of is relatively positive up into the first half of January and then do kind of average a pullback in the middle of January, you know, about the 12th or the 15th or so. If you look at the seasonality, we kind of do start getting that potential pullback right here at this spot. And then it goes down into the end of the month. And then we're usually able to bullish February according to history. So I was a little skeptical, but then I saw this big uptrend line breaking. And when I say uptrend line breaking like this, I think it's worth noting it's worth watching at least for a potential breakdown. Obviously it already had this one breakdown day down over 1%, which is not too big. So this breakdown isn't huge or anything. And that's what kind of caught my attention is that there could still be some meat on the bone, assuming that it can go lower. One thing you do want to be skeptical of, you do have the nine and the 21 EMA right here. We were right at the nine and the 21 and the 21 is notorious for bouncing. So you got to be careful with that. Maybe why it's even way for it to get under the 21, close under the 21 and then we'll start heading into your 50 and 200. So just using the one day moving averages as price levels, as trigger targets, all that good stuff. So I'm looking at this for the potential for puts. You just want to be skeptical at this 21, maybe wait for it to break down, but you do have that confirmation of the uptrend line breaking. So that's a good sign. If it starts to get back over the trend line, starts reclaiming back over that, it's probably a fake out and you'll probably want to stop out. So just make sure you're using your trend lines in the same way you would use as the entry. If it starts invalidating your thesis and going back over it, just be careful. It looks like there's a little base right here. Had a nice bounce off this area, a little two day bounce wick area right here. So it probably needs to break under 40 flat as the psychological level. If it can break under 40 flat, that probably break under the one day 21 EMA as well. Start heading to your 50 and 200, which is right here at your 38s and 37s area. So pay attention to that. DAL looking at puts, but with a skeptical mind because we still are over your one day nine to 21 EMA. You're kind of being skeptical the same way you would be with S-Bucks under your nine to 21. They are potential resistance areas and you just gotta be careful. So this could hold as a higher low and S-Bucks could just keep making lower highs since it's trending under your nine to 21 on S-Bucks. And then DAL is trending over your nine to 21 to the upside. So higher lows when trending over, lower highs when trending below. So that's for DAL looking at puts. Be careful invalidation. If it goes back over the uptrend line. And on to the indexes, I was really kind of skeptical of even going over these this week because it's basically unchanged from last week. And in my last weekly trade ideas list video, we didn't even really go over the index as much, maybe a couple minutes because there's really nothing of substance. It's kind of the same thing this week. Basically unchanged, like Tuesday's close was right here and this was Friday's close. We're basically at the same spot. And here's last Friday's close at 473.50s and we're at 475.30s right here. So it's just really not a big move at all. Basically unchanged. We are still holding the one day nine email very well, which is a bounce spot from right here when we had this big pullback. It just continued up ever since we pulled into that. You can see there's another week reaction from Friday right here. So we are reacting to the one day nine email is the bounce spot right here as well. So you got to pay attention to that. One thing we did get though was a negative MACD crossover that was last Wednesday. And then QQQ also just had a one day MACD cross to the downside on Friday. Spy gave it a little bit early. QQQ just now getting its one day MACD cross to the downside. Obviously the last MACD cross to the downside was a fake out in consolidation for a bigger move higher. So you do got to keep that in mind. Make sure you're waiting for your one day moving averages to break before getting too bearish. So even though you got your MACD signal, that doesn't mean anything. You need multiple areas of confirmation. You want it to break under the moving averages under a structure low plus your one day MACD or momentum indicator showing you a bearish signal. So you got three things right there. Try to have two or three things rather than just one area of a momentum indicator showing you a bearish momentum. So the only thing you want to watch this week is just the one day nine email. I mean, just keep it simple. There's not really any clear structures here other than down at the lower four seventies. It's a good buy zone for the spy. Bounce really hard from over here. It's also a rally base rally demand zone with this being your base right here that I'm circling. So that's a good area to look for a bounce as well as the one day nine email for a short-term bounce. Obviously, I don't like the risk to reward here as much as I like it down here at the lower four seventies for a bounce, but you still do want to pay attention. Like I said, it's been a bounce spot. You got a bounce here. Yeah, a bounce here. And you got an attempt right here from Friday just off this wake reaction. That is some sort of bounce. If we go to Friday, tap the one day nine email right here and I had a little run up into the close. We kind of did dump on Friday, just nothing too big. QQQ was bigger, spy really didn't pull back as much. And then last week, we were also just focused on 75.90. I felt like that was a pretty good spot to scalp puts for day trades, but last week was just so slow. I didn't even do anything. Like literally I didn't even get a scalp in basically until Friday when UPST broke down that structure low. I got a nice little quick one in and I saw way too early because it just dumped like 10%. So I waited basically the whole week to trade. Didn't really do much even though there's some good setups. CCL even dumped for two days. We're looking at puts on that. And then also UNG had a pretty good start. I didn't open any new contracts but I'm still long shares at 550 and I have some clapped options on it as well. I'm not sure if those will come back but you never know, UNG is crazy. Still willing to maybe go for March expiration on UNG but I kind of do have your position already on it. So basically unchanged from last week. Only thing that's new this week. We finally tested the one day nine email again and you know, max upside is probably just the new resistance that was made which is obviously from Thursday's high at 477.55. That is the most recent kind of pullback zone. And this is just really tight or just kind of melting up. I really don't like day trades or swing trades too much up here on the spy. I've been trying to look at other things like individual names and maybe even QQQ. QQQ is just has better volatility right now than the spy. And with the VIX being so low it's kind of just, it's making everything feel a lot slower as well. So like I said, your area of focus, just this one day nine EMA, if we can get down to lower 470, that would be great as well. That'd be a good dip by zone. And then I really wouldn't be bearish until it starts breaking under the one day nine EMA which is a clear bounce zone. So wait for that to break before, you know, trying to short or anything like that. You could scout puts obviously you could try if it gets up to 477.55 or if it starts breaking under Friday's low using Friday's low as a structure is also a good play. Really for anything you can use Friday's low as you know, support as resistance or you can use Friday's close as well. Friday's close is always a good zone as well for anything that you're looking at. So that's for spy. Just be very careful here. And what we're going to do next is we're going to go into a more clear indicator to show the breadth of the S&P. And that's going to be looking at S&P stocks above their 50 day movie average. And basically it's just showing you how much the stock market is over its 50 day movie average kind of hinting at breadth when it's, you know, collapsing like this. This means breadth is not as good when breadth is, you know, higher and doing well more stocks are above their 50 day moving average. It's not just concentrated into, you know the Mag7, NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Meta when breadth is good the whole market is trading above their 50 day movie average or 20 day movie average. Whatever you look at for breadth you want to see most of the market above not just a select few or a high concentrated amount to just a couple different names. So that's what this is showing just S&P stocks above their 50 day movie average. And it kind of correlates with local tops. As you can see, breadth topped out here, breadth topped out here, breadth topped out here. And also we are at that same spot now. Now, if we add an SPX chart which this is covering basically this is the S&P stocks above their 50 day movie average. So we'll add the SPX under the compare symbols we'll add new price scale and we'll look and see if we can find any local tops as breadth topped out to the S&P also topped out. And you can see the orange line here is showing exactly that. So you got S&P orange right here when breadth topped out right here you had a short-term pullback nothing crazy when breadth topped out right here the S&P had a small pullback nothing big breadth pullback as well. And then another one right here breadth kind of hit that zone had a short-term pullback. So the S&P is the orange and the breadth indicator is just your regular candles like we were looking at. And then you can see once breadth got all the way up here you got the orange S&P line pullback as well short-term S&P pullback on the orange right here. And then most recently probably in July breadth topped out of this area again the same area that we're at now S&P you had a pullback all the way into October. So there is some correlation with this with breadth topping out and the S&P topping out. So this is saying recently when too many stocks got above their 50 day movie average and got to every local top the S&P also did get to some type of short-term local top. You could even look at it on the one day the breadth and the S&P in the orange line kind of do move somewhat hand in hand. So you got breadth topping out right here in July here was that pullback we could even zoom back a little bit. So here's breadth topping out again there's that short-term pullback breadth and S&P basically got to the same spot in terms of percentage gain right here pullback together. There's another really nicely correlated one breadth got all the way up here. So we're going to look at these in the one week but I just want to show you on a shorter term timeframe basis on the one day it's basically the same thing. You know this indicator and the S&P kind of do correlate relatively well together other than I select few moments probably in the last five years like during 2020 and 2021 this indicator and the S&P really didn't have that good of correlation as you can see other than on the short term and when breadth bottomed out right here so you got the indicator bottoming out and you got SPX orange line here bottoming out this gave you a good buy zones this was in a bull market. So likewise it can give you top signals it can also give you little bottom signals when breadth has bottomed out like this gives you good dip buy signals so it doesn't always just correlate with tops like right here you have breadth really hitting a new high and you had a short-term pullback on the S&P right here but it was nothing crazy not as extreme as breadth dumping right here. So just wanted to show you this indicator we are at that kind of weird spot you know breadth is at the triple top quadruple top here and in 2022 in the last couple of years this did really align very well with the S&P pulling back as well so you want to be careful at this spot is basically what I'm saying for me to feel good about buying dips I want to see breadth a little bit lower just to get that good discount in the market it gives you better opportunities and more gains when you're buying dips rather than you know buying into highs and this kind of just proves that point so if we can see breadth come down a little bit I would love to buy the dip but otherwise you want to be really careful up here just based off this indicator so you got to look at multiple things but you know don't let me scare you or anything you know buying and holding stocks is the best thing you can do actually at a video come out Friday is my favorite video to edit is a video on managing losses and I mentioned buying and holding stocks is literally the best thing you can do you know 58% of households hold stocks they just buy and hold because the stock market appreciates over time doesn't matter how big the dip is 2008 recovered, 2020 recovered we have the Federal Reserve the Act is a backstop in the market unfortunately you know I'm not a fan of the Federal Reserve but they are there and they do kind of you know create more liquidity in the market when things are going bad that might bring moral hazard and bad risk taking on everybody's part but that is the truth and stocks do appreciate so we just want to find you know short-term tops you know short-term risks in the market right now this indicator is at a spot where there has been local tops in the past just short-term pullbacks and obviously the stock market eventually appreciated but it's just something you got to be careful with if you want to find stuff to buy you want it at a discount that's just better risk to reward your drawdown risk is not as bad and you're not buying the top so that's for the spy we went over the spy and also this S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day moving average just wanted to show you that real quick these do correlate together and last but not least we'll go over the QQQ the VIX is basically unchanged I mean there's really nothing new in the VIX so we probably won't go over that this week like we had a pretty good chance to see some volatility but it wasn't able to you know reclaim the 2021 low at 1410 so I probably won't cover it this week it's basically in the same spot and I've already covered it a bunch of times you know you already pretty much know if you tune in every week you know I wanted to see over 1273 that's a signal to go higher overall 1550s needs to get over that for a real volatility signal so VIX is basically unchanged there's nothing really new there but we will go over the QQQ even though there's basically nothing changed here either from last week you can see this was Friday's close at 408.33 we closed at 4952 so nothing you know no crazy gain nothing really new but we did tap this one day nine EMA similar to the spy and like I said Friday now it just got this negative one day MACD cross to the downside so that's something you might want to pay attention to right now this previous all-time high at 408.71 which is also a previous resistance this kind of acting as a short-term back test area it's also a breakout area you can see it pulled into it kind of acted as resistance right here on the 15 minute but once it got back over there was some velocity to this move and then towards the close we pulled into that same level at 408.71 and look how hard it waked at the close I can show you in the one minute literally at 408.70 or is 408.72 so one penny off it did have this nice little pump into close so this level at previous all-time highs being respected so you want to watch that definitely mark 408.71 which is your short-term resistance here and also a breakout zone here also now trying to act as a back test you got way old resistance I think is short-term res here acting as a breakout zone right here now I think it's back test also kind of meeting up with the one day nine EMA and then like I said for you to be bearish in the market you really want to wait for it to get under the one day nine EMA and then my favorite dip buy zone on QQQ right now is probably going to be at this demand this rally-based rally demand that's going to be like 405 so I want to see it coming down to 405 eventually that'd be a good area to look for a dip buy or maybe the one day 21 EMA depending on how the market's looking and how everything else is looking but right now I feel like people are going to try to just keep showing up at this one day nine EMA same with this buy trying to buy the dip there and we're just making higher lows guys it's pretty simple you got higher low here higher high pulling in for a higher low now to see a higher high we need to break over that 412.92 if you break over 412.92 that could give a pretty good breakout trade to the upside and obviously you know trading the higher highs has been working you got higher high breakout right here and this structure after it broke out of 394 you got a breakout there once it broke over the previous all-time high you had a two-day run nothing crazy you got a plus 0.6 day here about plus 0.15 so you maybe have like a 1% move here once it broke over that all-time high area so you can trade the breakouts obviously it's not the best risk to reward and buying the dips is way better so if you were to buy this one day nine EMA you just keep it simple trade it back up to the short-term res at 412.92 and take profit there and that's how you just go about it and if you wanted to hold for the breakout you probably want to lessen your position or just make sure you have time on your contracts just keep it simple you can anticipate breakouts or you can wait for them to actually breakout just you know there's two ways to go about it and each plan is going to have a different you know way to go about it if you're going to anticipate a breakout you probably want to have a smaller size just in case it rejects super hard or have a lot of time on your contracts to deal with the potential resistance and if you're trading a breakout and actually buying over the high and you know kind of going with the FOMO you might want to go smaller as well as maybe just be more aware maybe just scalp it you know not hold it for long because lots of times they'll take it over the highs and then they'll pull it back in and kind of rug everybody after that so you got to be careful it just depends on how the market's looking and it depends on conditions so that's for QQQ just focus on the one day nine EMA maybe keep looking for dip buyers to show up just be aware of this one day MACD cross to the downside there's one momentum indicator shifting you know to a potential negative scenario but you really won't see an actual negative scenario on the short-term until it breaks under the one day nine EMA it probably need to start breaking and closing under the 408.71 we have one day of this where it could have been nasty but it basically got bought back up right away and then once we went over the 408 again that's kind of when the positivity show back up that's my outlook I'd really like it to pull back into 405 this one day rally based rally demand that's my favorite area probably to you know buy the dip even if it's just a day trade one or two day swing that'd be a good area for me to try and add so that's the video guys like I said I'm not going to go into the VIXX this week there's really nothing of substance here it's just back under it's one day nine and 21 EMA and I've also kind of ran my time a little bit over because we went over this breath indicator for the stocks above their 50 day movie average and kind of added a little bit more time that I wanted to I don't want this video to be too long because then I started losing people hope you guys enjoyed this video make sure you like comment and subscribe indexes not that great for setups right now but you know just watch spy and QQQ at their one day nine EMA test which they're both at right now most importantly I really like Baidu it's probably my favorite one this week it's breaking out of that downtrend it's probably going to be my main focus hopefully we'll see a setup in that keep seeing dip buyer show up keep seeing it you know closing above it's one day movie averages and obviously you know with Hong Kong and China in general it's very risky they trade in different time zones you'll see a lot of gap ups and downs on Baidu really on anything Chinese you'll kind of see you know lots of gap ups and downs because of the time zone difference and as well as there's a lot of volatility in China right now so you got to be careful with that but really like the setup on Baidu it's probably my favorite one this week but I love you guys so I'm going to get this chopped up sent out all that good stuff it's getting kind of late so almost nine o'clock so I need to get it done pretty quick the way it's not up too late love you guys and I'm out