 I'm Amis the Basel Chapman as you do each and every Tuesday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks, Basel has an outstanding show here every trading day, 10 to 11 Eastern stand at a time, also has a great newsletter, the opening call. Now it's very easy to get Basel's newsletter folks, come over to our website at TFNN, gonna go right under the newsletters, just the opening call on the left hand side, second one down, you just hit subscribe, you can get the opening call for one month for $149, you get it for six months for $6.95 which is a savings of $199 at 22% and you get it for one year for $11.95 which is a savings of $593 at 33%. Now they all come with a 30 day money back guarantee, if you're gonna check it out you can keep that in mind, okay you get a six month, you get a year, if it works for you, awesome. If some reason folks it doesn't help you, 30 days from now, guess what, you get your money back and then on top of that, when you do get it anyway, what you're gonna have is that you're gonna have about 11 archives that Basel's done an amazing job with, if you really want to understand how this market moves, how you ride that wave each and every day. Basel Chapman, what's going on? Hi Tom, how are you? I'm doing great man, yourself? I'm very good, thank you. Are you getting some good weather up there now? I hope so. You know it's been quite cold, I think from tomorrow it should be beautiful. Okay good, good. I need that. I'm sure most people do, I mean it's bad enough the market's down, that gray sky up there in cold weather is not cool. It's a real gloom right, dark cloud cover. So this is very interesting because the Dow right now is gone, there's a technique that I developed which I call the Chapman Wave inside track support level or resistance level and in this case you can see the little red dashed line. We've gone right to that and we went under 32,000, for me it's really the 32,000, besides the psychological level in the Dow, it's really important because it's been above 32,000 for so long. So this is going to be absolutely imperative, we went to 31,877, it's hot, I guess in this market it's not hard to believe but we were actually at 32,752, we downed 500 points from that, from earlier this morning. So this is, there's a lot going on. So what I thought is, I just tell you key levels for me in the Dow and the Dow has been the lead index for quite some time, it still is and I'm using that kind of as a benchmark because the two things that are absolutely imperative for a rally to occur right now is that you need the Dow to and now it has to go above that high of today 32,752, that's number one but you also have to get the QQQ which at every rally is just being pummeled to the downside. So the QQs are 303 and as soon as we can start to close above 313, that says to be okay now we can get a decent bounce but what I thought I'd do is I mentioned it last week when we discussed what I look at that I said should be five independent areas and I talk about them all the time. I nicknamed them Bondi for Bonds, we've got Goldy for Gold, we've got the others that I look at is Dollar, that's Dolly for Dollar and Oily for Crude Oil and Vixie for the Volatility Index and the reason why I would love to have these things always sitting there is within the context of these different aspects I've said for about four or five months now I like to think of them as very independent, you and I have spoken about this market how different it's been, let's go through them one at a time, you know Bonds normally as I recall over the years not years but decades when there's volatility in the stock market in other words volatility in stock market parlance is going down. So when markets are going down money tends to migrate from the volatility of stocks into the so-called safety of Bonds, this is the very first time that we've seen that just did not happen at all in fact as yields were going higher and bonds were going lower so the stock market went in unison so that's one divergence out of these two Bondi and looking at the markets themselves. So the other thing is looking at the dollar you just spoke about the dollar well the dollar and I should mention that subscribers we've been long since 2018 at about 90 this is at 103.91 normally you would find that as the dollar goes higher even if it's just on a short-term trend basis invariably you'd have the it's almost like a mirror image not necessarily in percentages but as dollar goes higher gold goes lower as gold goes higher dollar goes lower and that kind of happens a lot in fact I'd like to look at it and say the market mostly has about four to five week periods where the dollar and gold go up together not in the same proportion but this is very different to anything we've seen before so dollar is your nicknamed king dollar I think that's what it is it's still so far king dollar then the other thing we were looking at is crude oil when you look at crude oil normally when the dollar goes higher crude will pull back that's just kind of even if it's just a short-term basis and yet we've got crude oil at 99.90 down three having made that high on the seventh at about 128 it looks to me and I was talking about this in my show today that if you if you consider so that's the that's Bondi I have to always read it to get the sequence Bondi Dolly Goldie and oily but VIX is the other thing that I want to look at look the VIX index at this particular height is close to where we were as Russia invaded Ukraine we went to 37.79 on the 24th of February and here we are at 32.73 so you would normally see huge triple digit down moves in the Dow when when the volatility is up at this level so that's why I've been saying try to think of all these different things as different units sometimes they come together and sometimes they go in the traditional way we're not quite seeing that right now so I think that that's pretty important to just consider that with the volatility still holding high until that 32.73 right now we start to see a trade for about two out of three sessions actually close it can't just trade it's got it's got to start to go under 29 I'm not sure how big a rally there could be in the market but as soon as that happens it just releases with the other aspect that I want to talk about which is the commodities the soft commodities look the DBA which is something we've had since the 13th is trading at 21.52 right now this is a very important aspect because if we start to see the commodities pull back and it's only short term I don't know if the Fed would even talk about something like this because it's so short term just two three weeks but they are pulling back and I think that that's important so ingredients are there to say the all the things that are that that are attached to the fear factor in the market are slowly being ameliorated how does the market respond and as I say I would need to see a really good sustained move on the upside with at least two big closes to the upside in the Dow with the Q is actually all of a sudden starting to lead the rally and I want to see the VIX ready pull back very sharply so those are the ingredients that we're looking for here and it looked like early this morning there was this big rally that but it couldn't hold we'll see what happens so I've got my parameters clear as anything and folks it's very easy to get Bowsley's newsletter come over to our website at tfnn you're going to see hit newsletter hit the opening call second one down you are off the races Bowsley have a great one safe one of course we look forward to show tomorrow thank you very much Tom thank you stay right there folks who come right back