 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday, the 7th of October and the weekly market update. And as we head into Q4, equity markets are starting to look a little bit stretched. As it is, we've just seen the DAX post its worst quarterly performance since 2012, the second quarter of 2012. The CAC Heron has post its first negative quarter since the second quarter of 2012. And it's becoming increasingly apparent that US equity markets are starting to find upside progress somewhat limited. And I think that can be put down to a number of factors. Obviously, concerns about a slowdown in Europe. This morning we've just seen German industrial production crater 4%, worst performance in 2009, coming on the back of a similarly poor factory orders number for August, slumped 5.7% again, a very, very poor number. And I think that's reinforcing concerns that the European economy is running very much into an awful lot of difficulty at the moment. Obviously, there are budget wrangles going on with respect to France and Italy. And it just gives those governments very little leeway in terms of measures to try and prop up growth. So we look at what the ECB can do between now and the end of the year. And I think the likelihood is we're probably going to struggle to see any further measures in the short to medium term apart from the ones that they've already announced. We've also seen the dollar surge quite strongly. Now, Friday's non-farm payrolls number was particularly good. It came in at 248 and the previous two months were also revised up. We got a bit of a dollar pop, but given the rise that we've seen in the dollar thus far this year, I think that trade is starting to become a little bit overextended. And in that context, I'm going to have a look at the gold price because we're just above a really key support level there. I'm also going to be looking at dollar yen in the same way that I did last week. Only this time, I think there's a possibility that we could actually find that 110 could actually be the top in the short to medium term. And also going to have a quick look at euro dollar for evidence of any form of rebound as investors start to get a little bit overly bullish, I think, on the dollar. So what key factors could contribute to a turnaround in this current belt of dollar bullishness? Well, there's a number of factors this week. We've got the FOMC minutes. We've also got a number of Fed speakers due to speak later this week. And I will list them for you. We've got William Dudley. We've got Charlie Evans. We've got James Bullard. We've got Tarullo. We've got Lacker. We've got Stanley Fisher. We've got Charles Plosso. We've got Esther George. Basically any number of those Fed governors could actually say something that's particularly dovish with respect to the US dollar. And I would say an awful lot of dollar bullishness I think is already priced in. So certainly if you look at the charts, euro dollar charts, gold charts, dolly end charts, all of those charts are looking what I would call probably overly bullish on the dollar. So let's start with gold. So let me start with the gold weekly chart because we're just above a very key support level. So if you look at the candlestick chart that's in front of you, you can see the key support line that I've drawn there. And we've been in a triangular consolidation since the middle of 2013 with horizontal support around about the $1,180 an ounce mark. Just below that, we've also got 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire up move from the lows in 2008 around about $680 an ounce to the highs, the all-time highs in 2011 at $1,920. Now just below that key support level at $1,180 is $1,150. So this try and get a consolidation is very, very key in the context of where gold goes to next. If we break below this $1,180 level conclusively, and I mean conclusively, then we could well see a very sharp move down to around about $930 an ounce. That's not really a favored scenario given the fact that it probably costs around about $1,100 an ounce to actually get gold out of the ground. So if gold does fall sharply then what you will probably see is gold miners start to cut production and that should actually put a floor under prices. Let's look at the daily chart because on the daily chart there is evidence that maybe we could be starting to find a little bit of a base. If we look at the daily candle you can see what is known as a piercing pattern, a daily candle piercing pattern. It's not quite a bullish engulfing pattern but the actual buying interest, it closed on the highs of the day and it's closed more than 50% within the body of the preceding candle. What we now need to see is a sustained move through $1,230 an ounce back up towards around about $1,280 an ounce to suggest that we could well see further dollar weakness and further gold strength. Pursuing our theme of dollar strength or diminishing dollar strength we saw Dolly Yen hit $110 on Wednesday last week. Unfortunately it was unable to sustain that level and we actually saw it post a key reversal day. Now Friday's payrolls did see a short squeeze off the lows of around about $108, $108.20 but we were unable to take out that previous high so that keeps the key reversal day intact and also keeps the downside risk intact. While we stay below $110 then the risk is for a break of $108 and a move lower towards $106 which brings me finally on to Euro dollar. Now Euro dollar's been going down pretty much one way. 12 weeks in a row, 12 successive weekly declines that's the record. At some point we're going to get a rebound. Could it be from these levels that we're currently seeing here? Let's look at the Euro dollar daily chart and you can see from this chart that we've posted a very very positive candle on Monday of this week. Now it's not quite a bullish engulfing pattern but again it's pretty pretty close to it. It's what I would call a piercing pattern and it's also a tweezer bottom. So there's a tweezer base at $125 as long as we hold above $125 and $125.70 and I think that's really the key level $125.70. If we hold above $125.70 then I think there's a good chance we could actually get a short squeeze all the way back to 127 or even 128. So certainly keep an eye on that level and if you actually look at the dollar index we've also posted a reversal on that daily chart as well and that's one of the new instruments on the next generation platform. Look at the dollar index and you've got a fairly similar pattern on the dollar index. So that concludes this week's weekly market update. If you have any questions please feel to tweet me on mhucin underscore Otherwise I'll see you at the same time, same place next week.