 When you look at the pitching pool for Monday night's MLB DFS slate You're gonna see Shohei Otani at the top facing Colorado and think it's gonna be this super easy slate Where we know to do a pitcher and I would love to come on here and say not so fast We've got some other guys to consider for today. Maybe it's not Otani as a top option. The problem is I Can't do that because I feel like it really is just as obvious as it seems With Shohei Otani being the top guy for tonight So we will talk about some other options that pitcher but it's basically gonna be all about Otani And then our goal for the stacks will be to identify players and teams that can help us afford his salary at $11,000. Let's do that right now for today. Welcome on into the solo shop That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com here to break down Monday's seven game of main slate with lockset for 705 for tonight and thankfully no weather in the forecast for today There is some wind out at Target Field for the twins and the Tigers But that is the one thing for today should be a pretty clean slave may a weather perspective So all good to go for tonight. Do not forget once again that we are back here once again 4 p.m. Eastern the fandal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages swing by there to take your questions about tonight's sleigh with repitching Stacks one off one off NLB DFS process We are there the fandal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages for p.m. Eastern each and every weekday Also this week on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed the PGA is Not an action this week. We do the Olympics We're gonna talk about the men's Olympics contest myself and Brandon Gadoula my DFS perspective that is tomorrow 10 a.m. On YouTube and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that So make sure you're subscribed there, but also check us out And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review Hey baseball fans we're getting close to the trade deadline and all these teams back in action fangirl is giving you a Chance to win while watching your favorite teams All you have to do is place a five plus leg Parley on an MLB game If you hit all legs except for one you get up to twenty five dollars back in psych credit all games up until July Up until the end of July or are eligible with a twenty five dollar max psych credit Head over to the fandom of sportsbook today and create your very own MLB Parley must be 21 plus and present Colorado Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia max psych credit twenty five dollars Restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook.fanduo.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in Colorado 105 2 2 4700 and Iowa 100 bets off in Indiana 109 with it for confidential help Michigan 1 800 270 7 1 1 7 in Tennessee called the red line 188 9 9 7 8 9 or West Virginia 1 800 gambler net Pitching preview for this Monday main slate show hey, Otani Obviously the top option for tonight He checks in at eleven thousand dollars on Fandali's facing over there Mon Marquez and Marquez actually second in salary at ten two with at least Garcia facing the Mariners at ten thousand Wade Miley is ninety six hundred dollars Then Kyle Hendricks is eighty seven hundred dollars and the only other pitcher at eight thousand dollars or higher and with Otani It's obvious. He's an elite matchup I'm not going to turn him down here even at eleven thousand and as much as I would love to give you alternatives I can't I can't put anyone else in his tier for tonight. He's facing the Rockies They have a 70 WRC plus against righties, but that's overall, but they have been especially terrible on the road this year So the 70 mark may actually undersell how bad this offense is and that's the worst mark on the slate by 21 percentage points. So It's the best matchup you can have and it seems like Otani shocker can take advantage of that He's been changing things up recently. He's been throwing fewer splitters and more sliders over his past five starts Which could be a concern, but he has not had any issues thus far He has a three point nine one skill interactive era with a twenty six percent strikeout rate And that's despite having a lot of tough matchups because three point nine one skill interactive era 26% strikeout rate or not like elite but part of it's due to matchups He faced Boston Oakland another team and they're all top 11 in WRC plus versus righties This time it's a lot easier facing the Rockies Otani is going deep enough in games as well because he's gone six plus innings in all but one game in that stretch He went more than 100 pitches once hit 96 his last time out. So it doesn't seem like there have been Super long-lasting effects from the all-star break It seems like there is enough here to feel good about him and the matchup does the rest So yes, it's costly and yes, he will be very popular for tonight, but he should be so I think that show Hey, Otani has to be number one on this slate. I think he's in a tier of his own There is another guy who I think is like kind of viable, but I do think that Otani to me the no brainer topic I'd love to be contrarian. I'd love to you know go out in a limb and say go somewhere else But I can't it's just Otani as the number one option for today Now at least Garcia is not as good on the road as he is in Houston and that does limit him a bit here tonight That's why I can't put him quite in the Otani tier But he does have a good matchup and he's not terrible on the road. He does get down great He's not terrible. So I think that at least Garcia is the number two option behind Otani for tonight And I am very willing to use Garcia. I just can't dub him as being the top guy above Otani We've been seeing a lot of pitchers taking steps back recently whether it be to Fatigue sticky stuff, whatever it may be, but Garcia has been getting a bit more interesting The velocity is up a decent amount for him over his past five starts and he has been Outstanding in that time. He has a 3.59 skill interactive ERA with a 30% strikeout Right and both those numbers are better than Otani in his respected departments We did see Garcia get eight strikeouts twice and seven in another in this time So that's very good The lone problem is that just one of those two star or those five starts came on the road He was fine that start. He led up two runs across six innings, but And that was against choice. He's been playing good baseball recently They've been better than the Mariners offense. So he will face tonight They have a 91 WRC plus and a 26% strikeout rate It is also the best park factor for pitching on the slate So yeah, I do downgrade Garcia when he's on the road relative to when he's at home Most pitchers in Houston have a bit more extreme home road splits because strikeouts get a bump in Houston So I do downgrade him It still feels like he should be second on this list behind Otani But I would put him like a tier behind Otani. It's not like a two-tier thing But it's like, you know, I feel very good about Otani and then I would put Garcia second for tonight So it's a tiny one in a tier Garcia second and my Marquez Woodrank third for me, but he's in the upper register from a salary perspective So I think that for me if I'm looking at things realistically I would say I just want to use those three Otani Garcia and then maybe Marquez is being like the third guy Nobody else on this slate moves needle for me I want to keep it to those three for me personally But we just run through a value play here on the solo shots if you forced me to pick someone else I would go Dallas Keichel though I want to be clear and transparent that I won't be using him tonight unless we get absolute Calamity with scratches later on the reason I would go to Keichel as the top real world For the top value play for tonight is that he's the best real-world pitcher on this slate He's gone back to his cutter over his past eight starts the fly ball rate is 29 percent ERA 3.80 and that's with some tough matchups in that time and he's overcome those tough matchups He had eight strikeouts against the Blue Jays he had six against the Twins before they traded Nelson Cruz So that was a tough matchup He had five against the Rays these days in the Royals tonight not a good team versus lefties They have a 94 WRC plus versus lefties with a 154 ISO They don't walk all that much and that's why I think that Keichel could pitch well here And that's why I would rank him highest among the non elite options for today I won't use him because I don't think he has a strikeout upside So take that how you will if your process is to spend out a pitcher Keichel is your best option down there my Process is to maximize the expected points from that position because I it's more predictable I can find Upside more easily and lower salary hitters so to me I want to maximize pitching points and Keichel won't do that for me So play this how you will but that's my thoughts on it where to me my pitching pool tonight will be Otani Followed by Garcia followed by Marques and that's likely gonna be it for me So Keichel's the top value, but not a guy personally want to use for today So with that said let's move now to stacks and because I am so high on Otani We get to focus a lot on Identifying teams we can stack that will still allow us to use Otani at $11,000 for tonight Weirdly enough the Astros actually do fit in this discussion. They still have your Don Alvarez Jose Altuve and Kyle Pucker at $3600 or higher, but The rest of the guys here are pretty low salary and you can stack them on an Otani slate And I would like to do so for tonight. They are facing Darren mckacken He is making his second big league appearance and the first one did go pretty well for mckacken He allowed just one run in five innings, but the underlying numbers were a bit more troubling there He had no strikeouts compared to three walks that happened in Colorado So it was a tougher environment, but it also means he was facing the Rockies lineups I'd else now yes face the Astros a little bit different than the Rockies in triple a mckacken had a 19% strikeout rates But a 5% walk rate, which means he projects to let up a lot of balls in play Not an overwhelming ground ball right from either triple a so You look put it all together He has a kind of profile we want to stack against where he's gonna let up a lot of balls in play not be a big Groundball guy and that's what we want and it happens to be against a team that we do want to stack for today So I think the Astros are the top option on the board and the value should be there to help you get to Otani because Abraham Toro is twenty three hundred dollars. They're probably at seventh Carlos Correa So the two thirty five ISO against righties is twenty nine hundred dollars. He is in a pretty massive slump But he's still making hard contact He's striking out too much. So like that is an actual legit concern with Correa right now, but Mckacken not a big strikeout guy I think that Correa will snap out of this this cold streak soon And I would not be shocked if it's tonight against a lower strikeout guy So I'd plug in Toro and Correa and then potentially Michael Brantley or Yuli Gouriel prefer Brantley between the two and You should have enough salary to get in at least one of the high-upside guys there between Tucker I'll Pube and Alvarez. I think you can get at least one of them in there If you use those value plays and I think that's the way I want to play things for tonight use using those value plays on the Astros in order to get one stud and use Otani as my pitcher as far as the second stack, it's a Interesting one if you listen to the solo shot this year because I've actually used Mike Minor in DFS I think two or two or three times potentially this year and it was a while ago admittedly and Things have not been going as well for him recently So I think we can stack against him tonight with the White Sox minor seems to have been impacted by the sticky stuff discussion His strikeout started to decline back on June 15th, which is a couple weeks after it was first known This was coming and he hasn't really rebounded since he's let up a lot of earn runs in this time And it does seem like he's tinkering because minor has been lowering the usage on his changeup over his pass for starts It's not working his skill interactive era is 5.2 mate with a 15% strikeout rates He's led up a 42% hard hit rate with a 44% fly ball rate now It hasn't led to a ton of dingers yet He has not let a multiple home runs in the game since June 5th But the building blocks are there fly balls hard contact low strikeout rates plenty of barrels That's That's what we want to look for Hasn't led to home runs yet, but I think that it will in the very near future And that's not a recipe that will work very well against a White Sox team that absolutely thumps lefties So I feel pretty good about them here despite the fact that minor is not like a An obvious guy I want to stack against but I do think that the White Sox Make a lot of sense and it helps we can get to them with Eloy Jimenez coming off the IL for today Now I will mention Jimenez in his triple A stint didn't show a lot of power So Jimenez himself might not be a guy I flocked to necessarily right away I'm interested and we'll use him But he might not be at the top of my stacking list for today My hope is that with Jimenez coming back We still get Adam Engel somewhere in the lineup because Andrew Vaughn Engel or the two like value plays here for trying to get to Otani both those guys $2,800 are lower Vaughn has a 316 ISO against lefties Engel is a small sample guy, but he's it for some power And I think that there is enough there to expect it to continue So we can stack those guys with the Tony and I would like to do so Vaughn and Engel the keys to making it work So hopefully when Jimenez comes back They have Engel play the outfield maybe give Brian good when the day offers is a lefty Because I do think that Engel makes a lot of sense here and he has a value play who can make it easier to Get to Otani so check the lineup once it's out be excited about who men is coming back But then you know hopefully we do get to use Vaughn and Engel as being value plays for today As far as our third stack the Red Sox are pretty similar to the Astros and honestly like they're similar to the White Sox too We have the studs we have Jose Abreu Tim Anderson. We have Jose Otube we've got JD Martinez here Raphael Devers Etc. Etc. The studs super high salary, but there are some mid-range and value plays of both And I think the overall teams are good enough and the value plays are good enough We can stack those teams and go with Otani leaning on the value here The Red Sox do have that value do it those mid-range guys and I want to roll them out here Against Thomas Hatch Hatch is making his first start of 2021 in the big leagues he's been very good in triple a 2.15 era The problem is that the advanced numbers are Not as glowing as a 2.15 era would suggest He has just a 4.88 x-fip down in triple a with a 24 percent strikeout rates and a 10 percent walk rates That's not necessarily dominant stuff a lot of times when guys outperform their expected numbers outside of it Just being a small sample is that it'll be due to bad at balls where there'll be an outline in the bad of all department and It's possible Hatch is getting a lot of weak contact because his ground ball rate is 49% that is kind of high So that's why the Red Sox are third on the stacking list as opposed to second for example I wanted the White Sox above them in part because of that reason not a ton of film on Hatch although he was in the big leagues last year, but He will likely let up falls in play and the Red Sox has some boppers So I think we can be into them here despite the fact that it's not a perfect stacking profile Due to the potential for Hatch to be a guy who does excel in the bad at ball department now stacking the Red Sox means we get to use Jaren Duran, which is pretty fun to me We don't have an example on him yet, but he at least doesn't look overwhelmed That's what I want to look at in a small sample of the guy coming to the big leagues is Are they getting worked at the plate the strike area for Duran is 29% It is a bit high, but it's not a massive red flag It's in line with what you would have expected based on his triple A numbers and he's hitting the ball hard of the 13 balls in play He has had seven of those have been hard hit so an exit velocity of 95 plus miles per hour And that makes sense to given all the power he showed in triple A given He was kind of a high-strike out guy there too. He's $2,600. That's a value play Alex Vardugo has slid back a bit this month with less power But not a big deviation from where he was before I would say Hunter Renfro is a priority above above Vardugo. He's $3,100. No concerns of his power So I would say the Red Sox are similar to the Astros where you build around the value plays like Duran Kind of Renfro and then maybe the Vardugo in order to get to at least one stud Potentially two while using Otani as your pitchers. So all three of those teams I think should work when you are using Otani a pitcher for today Let's move now to things to watch talk about one more pitcher I would typically be in on Joe Ross for tonight, but I have no idea what the pitch count will be He's coming off the aisle. He had a couple of bullpen sessions, but did not make a rehab start This is the first hour for Joe Ross since July 4th So it's not a super long layoff, but it's an elbow injury and it's still three weeks since he last pitched So if I were projecting a pitch count for Ross, I Mean, this is a big range, but it'd be somewhere between 60 to 80 pitches tonight That's a wide range and the top end is is not enough for me for DFS So hopefully Ross goes long enough where we can use him next time out in stacks I love Joe Ross. He was pitching so well before I love you back here But for tonight he is a no fly zone due to pitch count The twins did lose a lot of pop with the Nelson Cruz trade and with Alex Kiriloff going on the aisle But I'm not Against stacking the leftovers here against Matt Manning. Manning was really good last time out But he sells a 5.49 skill interactive ER right over his past four outings He has an 11% strikeout right in that time So letting up a lot of balls and play so I think the twins make sense both for one-offs or for stacking Mitch Garver Specifically is $2,500 just came off the paternity list He has hit for a ton of power versus righties this year So I'm very good to load up on Garver when trying to save salary whether a catcher slash first base or at utility for tonight Finally Spencer Howard is making another start for the Phillies today. It's against the Nationals and Howard Doesn't let up a ton of balls in play So I'm not like itchy to stack against him, but I'm fine with it He can let up long balls and he can you know let up walks, which means the long balls can lead to beginning So the fact that he doesn't let up a ton of balls in play combined with a Mediocre lineup right now makes it harder for me to prioritize the Nationals But I didn't think that they are in play for today speaking of the national Let's go to our dinger calls for today and the boring one will be one so too so too has had this Majestic strokes and started July. Hopefully the home run derby has helped him unlock that power swing once again It's been great. Howard does let up impactful contact me. Let's have balls and play Soto not a big strikeout guys. So all of the boring options. I do think that one Soto is a pretty solid one for today As far as the fun ones I want to go back to the White Sox and go with Andrew Vaughn once again a very different hitter versus Lefties as opposed to righties Just a lot more power He's kind of like Uli-Guriel in that sense where don't really want to go there against righties But very very very in on him against lefties. He gets that today in Mike Minor So home run calls for today will be one so to an Andrew Vaughn as always get your dinger calls in Later on during the MLB Q&A that's on the Fando YouTube, Twitch Facebook and Twitter pages Swing by there for P&E sometime today YouTube, Twitch Facebook Twitter and get those dinger calls in but also ask your questions about tonight's slate Don't forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well If you have any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fando podcast network at Fando podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. I hope you had a fantastic weekend. Good luck tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fando podcast network