 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We've talked to the bracket on both the men's and the women's side of things It is now time to break down some individual games beginning with around a 64 on Thursday here to break down those is Riley Thomas a Fandall research winner breakdown his thoughts on the futures market and then talk about all Thursday's games To get Riley's reading the best values over at Fandall Sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joined you today by Riley Thomas Check him out on Twitter at underscore Riley. He is a writer for us over at Fandall research Riley It is a pleasure to get you back on the show here for today the most wonderful time of the year. How you doing? I am doing great. Thanks for having me on Yeah, definitely ready to just lock in and watch basketball for an entire weekend I cannot wait it's gonna be a good time for sure But you know, we got to ask you about Kentucky because you're wearing the Kentucky swag on the show yesterday Kentucky drew the three seed in the south, which means pretty tough road. You've got Houston there You've got a lot of other really solid teams in that region. So how do you feel about their pull overall at first glance? Unfortunately, I'm a bit optimistic Because honestly after the way they lost first round, I I mean as I said on the show previously I like the chances of winning that CC tournament obviously didn't even get close lost in the quarters, but um, I Was expecting a four seed maybe so I was happy was getting a three seed first of all and then I mean Marquette has some Injury issues and there's a two seed in that region. We don't know Tyler Cole. It's gonna play I really have no issue with Oakland in the first round the second round potential matchup with Texas Tech I kind of like so I I like their chances and for some reason they seem to be a hot pick to make the final four I don't necessarily agree with that, but I mean, I'm pretty optimistic. I think they could be a second weekend team at least So that'd be cool. I would not know what it's like to play in a second weekend So I'm jealous of that for sure So maybe Kentucky will get you there at least to at least make one half of the show Happy for this year's turn. We're talking Riley about some futures that he likes Probably not getting to Kentucky quite there 30 to 1 She won the national championship on top of other futures He likes and then dive into all of Thursday's games in just one second But first loaded feed for this week here on covering the spread if you want full Breakdowns of the men's women's brackets You can find those up here on the covering of the spread podcast feed Fan dual TV plus in the fans of YouTube page the men's breakdown went up on Monday Talking with Dr. Ed Feng and Bennett Corcoran breaking down their favorite bets or how they're viewing the brackets If you're playing in some pools and want some advice on who to pick who to fade and stuff like that check that out from a Monday show With Dr. Ed Feng and Bennett Corcoran We broke down at the women's bracket Justin Carter on a Tuesday That one is all stew up talked about South Carolina talked about Iowa and all the dynamics there So find that on the covering the spread podcast feed the fan dual YouTube page and fan dual TV plus if you like What you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify You can also give us a thumbs up on the fendal YouTube page tomorrow Aiden Cotter will be with us break down the thoughts on the Friday men's round of 64 games Fandals put in the ball in your core for the rest of the NBA season because right now new customers get $200 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet That's 200 bucks if your bet wins bet the NBA with a wide range of bed types including quick bets live Same game parlays player props and more So visit fendal.com and make your first bet a layup Fandal official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states Fandal is offering online sports wagering and cancer under an agreement with Kansas darkest You know LLC first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a travel bonus bets That expire seven days after receipt see terms at sportsbook and dot fendal calm Gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or was a fendal com slash rg Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania, North Carolina, North Carolina, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont call 1 800 next step Or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 7 9 7 7 7 7 Over CC PG dot org slash Jack Connecticut 1 800 9 with an Indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 visit chaos gambling help comm in Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 Wyoming Hope is here visit gambling helpline ma org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support of Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 hoping y or text open y in New York now Riley We'll talk about some gains here in a second but first I didn't want to talk to you about the futures market because if we got you here We might as well still one more day before the games actually tip off so Digging into futures first anything you want to snag there before the tournaments get underway. Sure So as far as the national championship market goes, I'm not Probably gonna take anything there Now as far as bracket goes, I think I'm leaning Houston, okay I have I have some issue taken like actually placing a bet on them. I'm just the way they were just absolutely destroyed But Iowa State in the big 12 final I also think you could argue they kind of got some tough polls like if Marquette does have Tyler Colic That's a tough out if Kentucky manages to make an elite eight. Obviously, they're playing well That would be a tough out. I mean they're getting consistent, but they definitely have the talent I could I think you could even argue tech saying I'm in the second round could be tough Just the way they play and they have some guard play Duke is Duke if they see them in the sweet 16 that still could be tough. They have talent. So I Think Yukon is also, you know, obviously a prohibited favorite here But I just have a hard time like seeing a team go back to back just the way March Madness is also Typically when you get a guy a team that has the first overall seed in the tournament Also ranked first in Ken Palm typically doesn't go very well so I'm kind of staying away from national championship market, but Yeah, it's I like Houston, but I'm not all the way into where I place a bet Yeah, Houston right now six to one if annual sportsbook Betting them at six to one is very different than picking them to win at all So I understand that the discrepancy there between Your two thoughts in the various game types of Houston potentially Riley's picked there to win it all But not betting them at six to one. What about other futures that are up at Fandall Sportsbook any value you do like there? One that I absolutely love is a Creighton the one in the Midwest region. So to make final four Creighton's kind of been tricky, I guess all year where they definitely have the upside I mean, for example, they're second in the entire tournament with Over 49% of their shots taking place from three Obviously, you see a team like that and if they're making their shots, they're scary They have the guard play with a Baylor Shireman and Trey Alexander Their center Ryan Calcbrenner. He has won three straight defensive player of the years in the Big East You think of a big guy that can defend. He also has size. I believe he's about seven foot seven foot one He has length. Why does that matter? Well, you have Zach Eadie and Purdue on the other side and you know, if you end up seeing them I mean when have we seen Eadie really face a guy that actually might have a chance one-on-one So I think that's something to think about and then if they get hot from three and then I'm not too worried about Kansas with their, you know Injury questions like Hunter Dickinson and I think they're they lean very heavy on two players with Kevin McCuller as well Tennessee I'm kind of worried about them leaning pretty much their entire offense on Dalton connect So I really like Creighton's chance here I think at one point you could even argue say a couple weeks ago they could have been a potential choice for the national championship because For example, like every champion since 2004 they've been top 40 in offensive efficiency at Kempom top 22 and defensive efficiency in Kempom Creighton's like right on the edge of that there. I believe 12 in offense and 24 in defense. So I mean before they lost early in the Big East Tournament they were pretty much there. So I think the upsides there for them to make a run to the final four Right now at Fandall sports But Creighton is five to one to mid to win the Midwest Purdue is plus 175 Tennessee is plus 310 I am a Northwestern fan. So I've seen Purdue Falter at times I don't know if Northwestern is for whatever like they're one like Achilles Co whatever it is. But like Maybe that influences my view But I do think they're like somewhat vulnerable at least as a result of that especially if you got a guy like you said You can kind of match up with Edie. I think that's an intriguing one there with Creighton at plus five to one Or five to one we've seen Creighton compete with the big dogs already this year with that big win over Yukon So I don't mind that at all. I think that's pretty fun Yeah, I think that Yukon game carries a ton of weight as well I mean you saw it made threes and they crushed them. So yeah, I think it's there for sure I love the value It's definitely high variance to take that many threes but high variance not a bad thing when it's a high upside market Which is what a final four type that would be for Creighton Okay, any other bets you like in the futures market before we talk about Thursday's games Yeah, you know, it's always fun to try to pin down maybe a Cinderella that can kind of get far now Of course, this is where we get risky, but with the sweet 16 I think you're gonna hear McNeese and Grand Canyon thrown around a lot I mean they've won a ton of games McNeese kind of got a tough pull with Gonzaga, but I I've seen some people say this I don't necessarily think this But some are arguing that whoever wins at Gonzaga and McNeese state game could make a run to like the elite eight Do I think McNeese is that good? No, but I think a sweet 16 might be there and a plus seven ten I mean, you know, that's that's a big number. So but I think the one I'm definitely looking at and placing a bet on is New Mexico and plus 250 to make the sweet 16 they're just I've kind of really liked New Mexico for most of the year because they have a lot of balance I mean they have four guys that are averaging at least 12 points a game and Jalen house Their league guard. He's been on fire in the Mountain West tournament the final three games He was averaging over 20 25 a game So I just really like the upside New Mexico has with a really balanced lineup and excellent guard play So I'm I'm looking at taking that for sure All right, right now if annual sports book as you mentioned New Mexico is plus 250 to advance the sweet 16 now That's a that's a pretty interesting number for a team that is an 11 seed What about their path makes you think that New Mexico can kind of exceed expectations and pull together a couple wins here Yeah, I just I think the upsides just always been there with them just the way that they can score the ball They love to attack the rim They just they have a couple of forwards that have some size that can maybe give some people some trouble like they have a true freshman forward topping that I Mean he has some versatility to his game that can have some cause some teams some issues their guards and Actually Jamal Mastburn Jr. Shout out to Kentucky. Is that obviously was a legend at Kentucky? And then Jalen house. I mean that's a really good backcourt and I just love their balance and I think that's something to important when you're looking at some of these, you know smaller schools is Just the way they can score the ball and if they can beat you in multiple ways and they're not their entire offense is leaned on one guy I think the upsides there So I just I really like their chances of just staying hot and scoring and just outpacing some of these teams All right, so see if New Mexico can get there Plus 250 to advance the sweet 16 So the couple futures Riley is in on here creating to win the Midwest a five to one and New Mexico to make the sweet 16 That is plus 250. Let's dig into some games now across Thursday, Riley Let's start things off with the most robust slate that is in the Midwest where there are six games on tap for Thursday now we're recording this earlier in the week So apologies if any numbers have moved in that time when you look at the Thursday markets, Riley Where are you seeing value right now at Fandall Sportsbook? Yeah, so Obviously some great games make nice and Gonzaga. I kind of previewed that a little bit that should be a fun one I believe after that later we have Samford in Kansas as well That should be a fun one, but I think the one I am targeting is the organ money line against South Carolina Oregon wasn't you know Too great in the Pac-12 this year, but they got hot at the right time and hey That's something that matters, right? I mean you can have a team that struggle most of the year, but if they get hot at the right time That's when you back them for the tournament, right? And I think South Carolina has been kind of suspect all season They've been really interesting at one point they were nine and two in the SEC yet Ken Palm was telling us that hey They're like, you know 50 second the nation or something like that. So I've been worried about South Carolina all year. I mean they come off a 31 point loss against Auburn Oregon is not far behind South Carolina and anything for example number fire ratings has Oregon at 54 Wow, South Carolina is 52 so they're pretty close and I also like Oregon's matchup South Carolina's best players are Michi Johnson at guard and then DJ Mack in the front court what organ has Nafali Dante, which is if you haven't watched him play I mean he is built like a unit and he's seven foot and just yeah He's a lot. He's a lot to handle and then you have Jermaine a coup snarred in the back court for them as well That averages over 15 points a game. So First of all, they have their players that match up with South Carolina is best. They're hot Also something else to think about his head coaching experience for South Carolina Lamont Paris He was at Chattanooga between 2017 to 2022. He took them to the tournament once he has no tournament wins Oregon on the other hand they have Dana Altman, which of course has a ton of experience I mean he has over a hundred over 700 career wins and he also took Oregon to the final four in 2017 So I think that experience is something to take value on as well. So especially the organ is the underdog I really love that pick. Yeah, right now the Oregon Moneyline a fan dual sports book is minus 104 for this game that is the six versus 11 matchup in the Midwest so you're in on a couple six seats or a couple 11 seats here between New Mexico and Oregon liking Oregon to win this game outright in the Midwest over South Carolina East region has a couple four games to this This Thursday they got to see die with state in action three seed Illinois in action. What are your favorite bets across the East Raleigh? I Am really looking at Drake in Washington state I think that's going to be one of the best first round games. We're gonna get anywhere. I'm so excited for that one particularly focusing on the forward matchup between Drake's Tucker de Vries in Washington states Isaac Jones de Vries is actually Drake's the coach of son If you haven't watched him play, I mean, he's he's a bucket I'm not gonna make this full-on comparison because this is obviously a big name But I think his game reminds me a little bit of Larry bird I mean, okay, you know six foot nine forward that can really shoot the three and score a multitude of ways He's a great rebounder. I really enjoyed watching him last year and unfortunately Drake didn't find the success in the tournament And I think the same thing is gonna happen. I think this is a tough first round poll for Drake Especially with Washington state to cover sitting at minus one or two I like Washington state to cover that spread because the odds there as well. I really like those odds But the rebounding battle here I think is gonna be big both teams are in the top eight in the nation and defensive rebounding percentage but where we get a You know, maybe a big advantage is Washington state is a much better offensive rebounding team I mean, we're talking top 15 the nation while Drake is on the complete other side I believe they're in the bottom 30 in the nation and offensive rebounding percentage So in a game that is this tight Drake's probably gonna look to push the pace and try to score or Washington state What's the slow it down and lean on the defense? I think that rebounding battle is gonna be huge I mean if you have say Washington state manages out rebound them by 10 because of extra chances They're gonna be able to just sit and eat that shot clock clock up and limit Drake's possessions really and make this a low scoring Ugly game. So I just think with Washington state's ability to really attack the offensive glass. I like them to cover That is a minus one and a half spread right now for Washington state The minus one and a half is just minus one oh two though at vandal sports books We're not paying a whole lot to lay the one and a half there with them That is the seven versus ten matchup in the East region Riley likes Washington state to topple Drake And cover a spread of one and a half there Four games out in the West as well Riley two of those have a very tight spread So let's break down this region where you seen value across Thursday's games in the West now this region I am a bit hesitant with a lot of these lines I and I just say that because I'm very very torn right now Yeah, this can state Mississippi State and then also with the other game that you said is close Nevada Dayton I am so torn on both of those games I think if I have to right now I mean this is one that I might be changing my picks for both these games up until 10 minutes before the game step on Thursday But I think I'm leaning this to be state right now Just because the Bulldogs they played really well in the SEC tournament. I mean they just took Tennessee out by 17 Also the fact that well, that's even better. I just saw Mississippi State was a plus 100 on the money line That's plus 104, but Just with the spread being that low and then you're getting, you know plus plus odds on the money line from Mississippi State I'm intrigued to say the least. Yeah, I just think Mississippi State They can really defend their defense looked really well and they're really good in their first two wins in the SEC tournament Michigan State has been so inconsistent really a disappointment this year and of course everybody's gonna talk about Tom is oh, which I get but They're not making deep runs every year I mean one year I think of is when they lost to Middle Tennessee State in the first round when they were a two-seed You know, they don't always just make these deep runs. Sometimes they're gonna fail So also Mississippi State their duo of Josh Hubbard at guard and Toluse Smith in the front court If you know, maybe for fans that didn't watch SEC basketball, you may not know that duo But me being a Kentucky fan, I've seen plenty of them and I'm telling you these guys can play Josh Hubbard's a freshman guard. He's about five ten, but he can shoot the lights out and he's been putting up some big numbers Recently over the last two weeks Toluse Smith's been a main statement for Mississippi State for a couple of years And they can just ride him in the post and he rebounds really well So I just think with the way Mississippi State's defense has played in the tandem they have with Hubbard and Smith I think I like them on the money line Yeah, that's as extended to plus one of four as you mentioned That's for the Mississippi State version Michigan State matchup plus one of four now for Mississippi State You mentioned what they did in the SEC tournament How much stock do you put into those games? Given that it is a neutral court, which is important, which is similar What we'll see here. It's obviously tough competition there as well How much stock do you put into? Conference tournaments trying to evaluate what a team will do in the NCAA tournament. Yeah, that's a great question I think for me It's more of the teams that were Say playing for their tournament lives really the bubble teams that they're able to catch fire at the right time For example earlier. I mentioned organ organ was not expected to make this tournament And then when it matters most they go on a tear and when the Pac-12, right in the Mississippi State They were kind of in a similar situation whether a bubble team everything if they beat Tennessee and it was the The quarters if they beat Tennessee they were going to get in and what do they do they beat them by almost 20 Right, so I think these teams showing that they can perform when it matters most and I mean really they've been in elimination games Right like this conference tournament these conference tournament games were elimination for them Because if you lose you're not getting in the NCAA tournament So the fact that they're able to perform like that I think that's where I really like to look at it is where you get these Bubble teams that were kind of unexpected to be there when they just go on a tear right before and obviously Seeing any team that's hot in the NCAA tournament is scary Well, not a lot of teams hotter than NC States Let's talk about the South right now just two games in the South for Thursday Of course we got your Kentucky Wildcats in there as they are taking on Oakland then NC State taking on a Texas tech So just two games Riley any anything say it out to you across those two games for for this Thursday Even though the number is pretty high like the over for Oakland and Kentucky Honestly, I'm a bit nervous for this game for Kentucky. Just considering their recent Recent history with the tournament do I think they'll win? Yes, but I'm I guess a little bit Worried just due to the fact that Oakland can shoot the three like really really well. They're in In the 79th percentile and three point shots per game So that worries me a little bit But I just both teams can really really shoot the three in this Kentucky leads the nation and three point percentage and Both defenses can't really defend the three you have Oakland in the bottom 15 percent and allowed Three-point shots per game Kentucky's kind of in the same boat. They're around the bottom 50 nationally and giving up three-point shots Both teams also have several players that can take over Oakland has three guys in Trey Townsend Blake Lampant Lampman and Jack Galky all of them are averaging over 12 a game. Obviously, we know Kentucky has some guys as well like Reid Shepherd Rob Dillingham Those guys are potentially tracking to be top five picks and NBA draft Antonio Reeves was a over 20-point score in the SEC So just with the guard play the way both these teams can shoot and frankly just they fail to defend the three I think we could see the scoreboard really get up there with the over hitting Yeah, this number right now 162 and a half for the Oakland versus Kentucky matchup big total But it sounds like that's justified. Well based on what Riley is saying that is minus 110 So the bets Riley likes for these Thursday games in the men's NCAA tournament Kentucky Oakland over 162 and a half Washington State minus one and a half and minus one or two and the Oregon money line Ab minus 104 as well. That is Riley Thomas Make sure you check him out on Twitter at underscore Riley 8 find his work at Fando research We can find all of his writing for us all a lot throughout this week while you're a busy guy So I appreciate the time talking to you today. Good luck to you with the NCAA tournament for your pets But also with Kentucky and hopefully we'll talk to you again here in the very near future Thanks for having me. Good luck to everybody on their brackets. We need it. I will need it for sure That is very much sure as mentioned a lot of stuff here on the covering the spread podcast V bracket breakdowns in the men and women Friday breakdown with Aiden Cotter coming up tomorrow Thursday here on the show to get you ready for all the Friday games It is going to be a fantastic week Make sure you're subscribed Wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating or give a thumbs up Over on the faddle YouTube page as well. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can find a fan to a research on Twitter at fan to a research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down all of Friday's games This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network