 Okay, it's Friday, 4th of June and probably a familiar face you've now come to recognise. Mike Ivey is with us. How's it going Mike? Very good. Good morning. Good. I was just complimenting Mike on his new camera. So he's looking good and he's sounding good and his side. That's recommended by you, Anthony. I mean, getting the lights and the camera now also got this new microphone. It's been a bit of a journey, but I feel like finally I'm getting to a point where it's coming together, as you rightly said, just in time for going back to the office. So such are these things. But look, I've got Mike back because for those who've been with Dampfire Live community for a while, Mike's quite kindly come on a couple of times over the last couple of months and he's talked specifically about COVID-19. Because it is a fairly complicated thing to try and track and make sense of. There's a lot of moving parts, particularly on a global scale. And there's no better person to get us up to speed than Mike. So he's kindly put together some slides which I can distribute as well to everyone I'll attach to the video. So a Q&A and the chat box open. So as we go, absolutely feel free to leave a comment, question, anything like that. We're both here to help so happy to do so. But to kick things off, Mike, let me share. Page one. Okay, fantastic. We'll start quite narrowly with the UK and the Delta variant, which I'll come on to explain in a second, but I think towards the end we'll sort of open it out because there are repercussions, implications for the global community as well as the UK. So, so starting with the first slide. We have the World Health Organization has decided that they want to sort of change the names of all the different variants of the different COVID variants, which is, which is fair enough. So, rather than use the country of origin, which it thinks leads to stigmatization and rather than use the scientific name, which it thinks is confusing. It's decided to use the sort of Greek alphabet to define the various variants of the COVID-19 so I can pretty much guarantee the national UK press will not refer to the World Health Organization's name. I'm sure they get much more readership through calling it the Indian or Chinese virus than they ever do through the who name. But there we go. I think we might say disagree. I mean, I do you feel stigmatized by by the Kent variant as an inhabitant of Kent. Do you know it is funny because you know why should something be called an Indian or Chinese but then saying Kent is okay but I do know that obviously I have some Chinese family, some who do live in Britain and I have had people tell me about racism they have actually confronted or been being met with because of none other than being Chinese. And my wife went back to Belfast to see her parents last week. And she said she said there was a guy there who's perfectly lovely and obviously my wife is Islamic as her all of her close friends are Islamic as well when she goes back home. I mean, this is an Irish chap hanging out with them. Yeah, then he's refusing to go to the Chinese takeaway now because the Chinese virus, which I thought, crikey are we actually is this is actually real but I guess it is but appropriate to rename, I feel. Yeah, okay. I'm not going to die on this particular hill. I mean, I think that I think Trump did a lot around that a lot to sort of stigmatize the Chinese with the way he politicized it. I don't feel quite the same about the other variants but you know I accept what you're saying and you know maybe in the long run it is simpler and better to use these Greek names so long as we see if it adds confusion or not we just have to see. But certainly for the purposes of this presentation, I will probably get confused and mixed up but we will try and use the Greek name. So the Kent variant, the UK variant is now alpha, the South Africa, the B1351 is the beta, Brazil the P1 is gamma, and India, the Indian variant which is the main topic of this presentation will be the B16172 is the delta. So, okay, so we can go to the next next page. So, thinking about the delta, the Indian variant, the problem for the UK and potentially the rest of the world. One of the things about the UK is, is we know more about it and we know more about the degree to which it's penetrated the population, because we do so much more sequencing genome sequencing here, approximately 50% of the world genome sequencing is done in the UK. We know more than a lot of other countries about the prevalence of these different variants, it's not that we're just somehow, you know, somehow these variants crop up more here they penetrate here more or that they originate here more since we know more about them. And the problem, the main problem with this, this delta variant is it's got two traits which are potentially in combination problematic so we know it's more transmissible than the ancestral variant, or, which is the original virus. And we know it's more transmissible than the, the, the alpha the Kent variant. And in combination with that it seems to have a degree of added immune escape. So it can sort of potentially penetrate vaccines and overcome immunity that people might already have from prior infection. Now, as we learn more about the immune escape. It's potentially more worrying and we'll come on to that in a second. The interesting thing, the most interesting, one of the most interesting things on this particular chart is if you're looking at the B1351, which is the South African variant, is this is the variant that has the most amount of immune escape. That's the bad news with this variant. The good news is it's not very transmissible. So wherever it, it has started to appear, it quickly, it's quickly died out as it's been out competed by other variants. So there have been little clusters in the UK, the South African variant, but it can't compete against either the alpha variant, or the Delta variant so it's tended to die away, which is extremely good news, because potentially, in terms of its ability to overcome vaccine systems or escape the protection given by vaccines, it's the most dangerous variant, but so far so good on the South African one. But as I say, the worry at the minute is the Delta variant, which is very transmissible and has a reasonable degree of immune evasiveness. Okay, so public health England have been sort of producing regular updates on on the Delta variant, and we're getting a clearer picture of how much more transmissible it is than the Kent the alpha variant. And the latest figures I was looking at yesterday, they're suggesting potentially between 60 to 70% more transmissibility, if that's a word. So it's quite, it's quite a lot more than that is comfortable, actually, so the original estimates was something like 30 to 60, but that sort of edged up in the latest public health England estimates. So we now know we suspect it's much more transmissible than the Kent variant. The other problem or another problem is, we think that if you do get it so not only more likely to get it. If you do get it, you're more likely to get seriously ill. So two problems more transmissible, more likely to cause serious illness. And we also know that from the, the figures published by by the government that there's this degree of vaccine escape. The AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines seem to be only 33 to 50% effective after one dose. The Pfizer vaccine is 90% effective after two doses at two weeks, but the Astra vaccine is only 60% effective after two doses at two weeks. Now the majority of vaccines vaccinations in this country using the Astra vaccine. So 60% effectiveness potentially causes a problem. There is the scope for some good news here in that the, the way the AstraZeneca vaccine works using this adenovirus vector, the vector itself seems over a period of time to confer a degree of immunity so the suggestion is that the 60% effectiveness at two weeks should continue to increase. And I've seen estimates of, you know, 80 to 90% over a period of 12 weeks, but we don't know we don't have the data yet so that's, that's an estimate. And that's a sort of, you know, we hope that that's what's going to happen, but we don't have the data yet. The reason for thinking that is if we know that, that after the first dose, the effectiveness of the Astra vaccine increases and that's one of the reasons that there was a 12 week gap between the first and second doses is we knew from the days we had that the effectiveness of the vaccine increased over that period and they could safely leave it. Not only could they save the year until 12 weeks there was a benefit to leaving the second vaccination at 12 weeks. So we're hoping we don't know that the 60% effectiveness figure will increase. Okay. So the problem with all of this, the increased transmissibility, the potential to cause more serious illness and the potential for vaccine escape means that there is scope here for increased hospitalizations and deaths. Okay, go to the next slide. Okay. There's a very clever mathematician called James Ward who is on Twitter and I'll put his Twitter handle in the, in the room after this, after I finished doing this but he's, he's done various modeling of what might happen with the delta variant, depending on what the government does. It's very, very clever stuff. This is the base model which he did two weeks ago, when there was a suggestion that the data variant was 50 to 60% more transmissible and he took the middle figure of 55. So it may be a slight underestimate if the delta variant is 70% more transmissible but it's not going to be so far out. So, so this is his, his model, assuming a 55% increase in transmission rates over the alpha variants. So what might happen if the government goes ahead and stage four on June 21, I decided to open up the economy altogether. And in this scenario, he's saying that there may be a 30, maybe 34,000 additional deaths caused primarily by the, the alpha, sorry the delta variants. So if you look at the graph underneath, you'll see that we get what's called nano so go back, go back to the graph at the bottom. Yeah, you'll see that in the autumn, you've got this big, what he calls exit wave. The last wave will get a COVID, but it's a substantial wave of peaking in October at 25,000 hospitalizations a week, slightly less than the second wave in January, but it's still a fairly chunky wave of hospitalizations. And that actually, that surprises me in a, in a bad situation way. That looks quite, quite large that peak. Yes, it's fairly scary. But this, what he's done is he's a very, very clever guy and and his Twitter thread is really worth reading as I'll put the details in the chat room. Yeah, cool. So, so yeah, so he's plugged in, you know, once you've plugged in the extra transmissibility, the scope to get more ill, the vaccine escape, the immunity escape if you already had, say the original COVID, the wild COVID, you know the chances of being re infected and so on and so forth. Once you plug all of that in, these are the figures he comes out with so. So this is if the government decides to go ahead. So it's, it's potentially pretty scary. And at 25,000 hospitalizations a week, it's fairly significant. Okay. So in the, in the incoming slides, we are aware of yet the timetable of the resupply of vaccines because I know when we last spoke that was the big issue, the lack of support. So, so we'll, yeah, if you, if you go on to the next slide, I'll talk a little bit about that supply. Yeah. So, the government has a fairly difficult decision to make about June 21. And there's a there's a, there's a political decision. And I'll see, before that happens, there's a sort of scientific decision or scientific advice. Now if you go on Twitter, lots of scientists are actually arguing with each other. Tim Spector of the Zoe project who probably have the large largest amount of privately accumulated Delta data about the virus is talking about a third ripple, as opposed to a wave, and he doesn't see anything to worry about. Some scientists agree with him. Lots of scientists take the sort of more pessimistic view that we're in for a really, really big third wave. So, one of the problems is that the government may have when it comes to make a decision is the scientific advice rather than being cohesive and coherent may be fairly mixed. It's going to be really, really tough decision to make, I think, about what we do on June 21. They've done the first thing they've done correctly is just sort of shunted the decision down along the road to June 14. So I think they were going to make the decision earlier, but they've moved it to June 14, which is a clever thing to do. And I think they'll just wait for as long as possible to get all this data in about hospital. They'll be emphasizing data over dates all the way in the meantime, I guess, so soften the delay if it happens. Yes, exactly. So the arguments for the government going ahead with opening up stage four on June 21 is, well, well, the death rate is still incredibly low. That's for 1% of all deaths. And at the weekend, it was a slight statistical anomaly, but there was a day with no deaths in the UK, which we haven't had since, I don't know, before the pandemic started, I don't know. Yes, yeah, it was, yeah. So, so, you know, so it's very difficult to say, politically, I think to say, right, we're not, we're not going to go ahead and open up where you've literally got, hang on a minute. You know, you just had no deaths you've got a handful of people dying every day. You know, politically it's quite difficult to justify. And you've got people like Steve Baker in the Conservative Party, but very, very anti-lockdown and want to open up as quickly as possible. And they're quite, there are others like him, so they, you know, there is a wing of the Conservative Party that doesn't want any more delays. So those people have to be sort of talked around, I suppose, in order to stop any sort of dissenting difficulty within the Conservative Party. So, so that's, you know, politically, it's difficult to stop, I think, this, this, this given what I've said about people like Steve Baker and commitments in terms of what you've told travel companies, what you've told the general public, you know, politically, I think it's very difficult to stop this, this opening up without really, really good reasons. And therefore continuing on June 21st is, is the NHS can cope. So, so in the scenario which I just gave you, you know, 25,000 hospitalizations in the autumn, the peak, you know, it's not great, but the NHS can cope. And I think it's called right at the beginning, beginning of this process that, that the one of the driving factors was, was not overwhelming NHS. And although it would cause difficulties for the NHS, the NHS should be able to cope. And then we come on to what you what you're referring to, which is this sort of vaccination. So, the government is, is desperately trying to increase the pace of vaccination in order to get as many people as possible to have their second doses. And the reason for this is as on one of the earlier slides is, there's a big difference between the effects of the of the Delta variant on people who've had one vaccination, as opposed to two vaccinations I it appears that you get a relatively low degree of vaccination with one, one dose. So, you know, we can see that the government is desperately trying to increase the pace, particularly of second vaccinations to get everybody over the age of 50, and everybody with an underlying health condition, vaccinated with two doses by June 21 seems to be the goal. Yeah. And helping them with that is that does seem to be increased vaccine supply. The last week, which 31st May on the charts bottom there, and there's something like 5 million doses made available in the UK, which is above the base of three to four. So we what we think is happening here we don't know is the base AstraZeneca supply which is UK supply is two to two and a half million doses a week. So, if we, if we think last week was two and a half million AstraZeneca doses, then we've got two and a half million MRNA doses coming in, and presumably the bulk Pfizer, but potentially quite a few Moderna vaccines. Now there hasn't been a lot of Moderna in the UK, partly because there's been problems with the production plant in Switzerland, but the hope is that that Moderna supply is now coming on stream. And this, if this supply of MRNA vaccines continues, it will enable the government to keep up this pace of vaccination and also quickly vaccinate younger people who it doesn't want to give the Astro vaccine to for because of the blood clot risks. So this potentially is good news. And we just have to see how this pans out the next two or three weeks. So if this vaccine supply continues at this elevated level, the M the increased supply of MRNA vaccines will mean that you can move quickly down the younger cohort to inoculate to vaccinate them as quickly as possible. Yeah, I'll keep you posted with the I'm getting my first vaccine on Wednesday. So they give me not too far it's in Kent so not too far from where I am in Tumbridge Wells so just up the road. Are you under the age of 40. I am indeed yeah. I'm at the top end I'm 38. So I'm on the fence should get the Pfizer or the Moderna so that'd be interesting to see if you get a Moderna. That'd be really interesting because I think that that would be evidence that there's more Moderna coming on stream. The figures we have from from Wales and Scotland, who published these these figures, and it's infuriating that the British government is almost with the English. The data for England is really infuriating. Every sort of country in Europe publishes data, well publishes data, but but England doesn't so we have to sort of guess extrapolate what everyone else is doing. So we know that there are Moderna vaccines coming now and treat in increased quantities in Scotland and Wales and the assumption is happening in England to but we don't know because the government won't tell us. So we'll be interested to see if you get the Moderna vaccine. Okay, so, so these are reasons for for going ahead with with stage four. So go to the next slide. And then the, you know, the arguments against going ahead and stage four, the government opening up is what what we knew about the Delta variant is that initially it was confined to sort of small clusters. And there are clusters with large British Asian populations clusters of multi generational households clusters of communities that work work, unvaccinated, and also communities that which an extent deprived in the sense that there are people, people who were going out to work putting themselves at risk and going out to work, rather than working from home. So all of these factors sort of combined to make this sort of these these local clusters. So the evidence from the last week seems to be that the virus, the Delta variant has sort of broken out of these clusters, and is now just spreading generally in the population. And what one of the problems is politically doing local lockdowns is actually quite difficult now because the government is very wary about being seen to sort of acts solely in areas of the north or so in areas which which I have high immigrant populations. It doesn't really want to go there so rather than do these local lockdowns it's sort of, it's probably letting it go and I think it was, it had suggested it was going to, they're going to be travel bands to these areas which are also a wave of sort of protests so quickly, quickly back down so there are no travel bands within the UK, but I think it probably would like to do that. It's not going to happen. So, so I think having broken out the evidence now seems to be that the Delta variant has broken out, and it's now spreading quite widely. So the third point there is the economy now is simply more resilient and the economic imperative for going ahead stage four is perhaps less than less than it was. The economy doesn't seem to be doing too badly, and with the latest sort of loosening. It seems to be doing pretty well actually it's as if people have found a big difference between the first lockdown second lockdown is people seem to have found ways of working. They've found a way of functioning in a way that it didn't in the first lockdown, and Sunak who is who is the guy who the chancellor who is has the purse strings apparently is is fairly relaxed about a two week postponement and the decision. So he was quoted by Sebastian Payne, an FT journalist saying, you know, if we have to wait another two weeks to find out what's going on, he's happy about it. And I, you know, you can all make the bus he's the guy that matters. Another argument for going for going against the government going ahead is this is is the NHS so having said that the NHS can deal with the Delta variant. We're trying to do other things so there's a huge backlog of routine cases so things like, you know, hips and knees that weren't done last year, which you've got to be done. So the NHS is currently trying to get on top of this backlist. And in addition to these routine cases, there is apparently a large number of complicated cases like cancers, where people didn't come forward during the during the last year, because they were scared of going into hospitals they push off, making decisions or reporting symptoms because of their fear of going to hospital, but they're coming forward now. And a lot of these cases are very complicated and requiring increased hospital stays. So hospitals are rapidly filling up with the with the routine cases which there's a backlog for and these complicated cancer cases that have been sort of bubbling away for a year and not being treated. So, so there's a decision here which you need to make is you can't the NHS is not able to do both the NHS cannot cope with a huge influx of COVID patients and do this other stuff. So what do you want the NHS to do. The NHS is explicitly said, we want to do this we want to concentrate on routine cases and these complicated cases, so we can get on top of this, you know, get on top of the backlog caused by COVID so. So the government has to bear that in mind and that's that's a reason for not opening up more than it is, it is currently. Young people are now the primary transmission source of COVID. And if you delay for two or four weeks the opening up, if, as I suggested there's this increase in mRNA supply, you may be able to to get on top of vaccinating these younger people with these with these vaccines. And that should just mean that if you do when you do finding open up, you just got more of these young people vaccinated, and hence, less of them to transmit the virus. So that may go into the government thinking. Okay, so go to the next slide. Okay. So I, I don't know what the government's going to do I honestly don't have a clue and perhaps we can talk about that in a minute and I mean I, I've. I am perhaps starting to lean to the idea that it will postpone for a few weeks the opening up, but we can have a chat in a second. There is now a massive complication. If that wasn't bad enough with this so called Nepal variant. People have seen yesterday that Portugal was moved off the green list. And the reason for that is the discovery that in Portugal. The Indian variant and this so called Nepal variant are starting to increase. In fact, they've doubled over the last week in Portugal and scientists in the UK are very worried about this Nepal variant. The reason they're worried is that it combines the worst aspect of the beta South African variant, which is its ability to escape vaccines. It also has the worst feature of the Delta variant, which is, it's incredibly transmissible. So it's a sort of nightmare scenario potentially transmissibility, plus the ability to defeat vaccines. The reason for this is it's the Delta vaccine by the transmissible Indian, so the Delta virus, the transmissible Indian virus, combined with this B1351 mutation, which is highlighted in red is the K417N. It's a mutation that gives the South African variant the ability to defeat vaccines. And this mutated mutation has combined with the Indian mutation, the Delta mutation, the Delta virus sorry to produce the Nepal variant. And in particular, the K417N mutation appears to be able to defeat the AstraZeneca vaccine. So it's a very, very worrying development. You've almost, I had an opinion, based on the pros and cons of the previous two slides and now you might have tipped me over the edge. But you will be hearing a lot over the next few weeks about the Nepal variant because it is potentially a nightmare scenario, particularly for the UK, which has a very, very high degree of reliance on the AstraZeneca vaccine. So we don't know yet for sure, but certainly the reason that Portugal was booted off the green list was because suddenly the appearance of what people in this country, what Grant Shaps was calling the Nepal variant. I mean, World Health Organization said we haven't heard of the Nepal variant. But this is what it is. So it's, it's the worst of the Delta variant and the worst of the South African beta variant. And we just can't watch this very, very closely. But in it. Yeah, sorry, go on. Now I suspect, so there are problems here. I suspect traveling Europe can be very, very difficult this summer now. I wouldn't book a holiday if you think you're doing it. And everything that is reported in the UK. We know, we know about it because of the genome sequencing, but all of these variants, the Indian, sorry, the Delta variant and now the Nepal variant will appear in Europe, and they will cause problems for Europe. Maybe a little bit behind, but it's going to happen. So I think, I think, yeah, I think travel this summer is going to be tricky. And I think, potentially this this variant may complicate the picture for for opening up in the UK on the 21st. Do we have any idea about the numbers of Nepal virus yet at all. In this country, I think it's less than 100 so far. And I don't know the absolute numbers in Portugal. I'm the only reason the Portuguese know about it is actually their genome sequencing is actually pretty good too. And I think also they made a mistake in telling people that they had it because suddenly, you know, the UK is thinking, oh my God, you know, we don't want, you know, we don't want UK travelers going there now. So if they kept their mouth shut, you know, we wouldn't have known about it. It almost feels like in a very naive, unscientific way in my mind. This is how viruses behave. I mean, their success is built upon adaptation or mutation in this case. Yes. And it's almost like a battle between penetrating humans to then transmit and spread themselves as a enemy, let's call it and then us as the other side of the battle being we vex vaccinate, and it cannot spread beyond that individual, let's say in a very simplistic way but so almost felt like it most feels like this was inevitable in a way that as we reopen and global travel does tentatively start to resume and people start to move around the globe again. That someone in geographic location a is going to inevitably meet someone from location be and the virus is a clever clever little chap right it's going to it's going to adapt over time but where are we with the booster shop of things like these people have got two shots because it because this isn't going to go away right I mean covert is long term and surely there'll be evolutions beyond Nepal I'm sure we'll run out of countries we can rename these things over a period of time but well this will be an ongoing thing right as a risk factor. Yes, I think I think whether the couple things that I mean the reason it's called Nepal is is. Sorry Mike I think I just muted you by accident you have to click on mute again sorry. Should be on the top of your zoo that's it. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, the reason it's called the Nepal variant is I think it was first sequenced in Japan when 15 travelers turned up from Nepal. They were quarantined. They were tested and they were the first to be found with this, this particular variant I think I think that's why it's called the poor variant. Yeah, I mean there are two things. I think I mean, commonly, we're led to believe that as viruses get as viruses mutate, they become less lethal, or less, you know, less infectious with was always the idea that we would talk about viruses but it doesn't seem to be the case here. It's almost like the virus is acting like survival of the fittest. It had a really good performance in wave one, and therefore we adapted and we did a good job of vaccinating on a global level to a certain extent. Yeah, and it's now had to evolve in a way to stay alive. Yeah, and what it does so is it kills off, yeah, the less transmissible that's not useful for its survival. And it's got more, you know, if you can combine the potency as you say in South Africa with the transmissibility of India. Yeah, it's just, it's just kind of refining itself into a better weather in that sense. That's right. And I think the encouraging thing is actually wherever these mutations have occurred, I was reading something. Yeah, do you know how many mutations there are? Can you give me a guess? I'm going to imagine there's a lot, but perhaps we don't know about all of them. Well, we know about a fair few. There are something like 350,000. Of course, a lot of them are irrelevant. They're dead ends or, you know, they're tiny cases, you know, so, you know, we only really concentrate on where we have large numbers and large clusters, because that's what it looks like. But essentially, it seems that wherever the viruses appeared and mutated, it's taken similar directions, you know, it's always turned right in the spike protein, you know, and then you've always had similar mutations in outbreaks, thousands of miles away, which have had nothing to do with each other. So the good news may be that there are only a limited number of useful mutations it can make to survive and prosper. That may be the good news. But as I said, most concerning at the minute is this idea of the South African beta variant and the Indian Delta variant, and going quickly on to boosters. I mean, there's a whole thing you can do on boosters, but maybe another day. You know, I think we know that the government is now working frantically with AstraZeneca to produce a booster that works against the South African variant. And I think we now know why there's an urgency about that. And there are other vaccine programs in place. So the UK government is has a deal with Novavax, the Novavax vaccine is fairly useful against the beta variant. It has a deal with Valneva, who are working in Scotland to produce a variant, or to produce a vaccine that works across the whole range of coronavirus, which actually might be the golden ticket out of here if they can get it to work. So, so it will crush the whole virus, not just the spike protein. And then the other, the other company in place is the working with UK government is working with German company whose name eludes me but they're building an mRNA vaccine with a German company based on the sort of sequencing data. So the UK government is giving sequencing data so that they can sort of put together this complicated mRNA vaccine, which are hopefully dealing with all variants. So, so I think we're going to get booster shots, whether it's in the autumn or spring, I don't know, but it is going to happen. So it's a going back to the UK government. There was a point there where you said about the banning of travel, which we've really kind of softly seen with Portugal and some other areas. And then the roadmap of the 21st of June in the reopening. And for those other reasons that you covered. I mean, what I find difficult, or let's say would be palatable to put to the public would be no travel and the rollover of lockdown. I wonder if the management here is that they're going to restrict the travel to stop inbound mixing of introduction of new variants whilst they can work on then. As you say, speeding up this newly deployed supply and whatever form it might be. But then, perhaps rolling, or perhaps going ahead on the 21st of June is what I was going to say, sticking to that date. I find it hard that they if they start pulling away from travel. And they go into like a rollover. It's a difficult one to spin on those different fronts that you said I just find I don't know how the internally in the Conservative Party or publicly that that that would fly. My counter argument for myself is whenever I, you know, as a consumer as a citizen, I go out to town. Things are pretty normal in the current state of lockdown and actually, even if we had a renewed state, I mean look, if I want to go to a restaurant or a pub, I got a book, it's a pain, but I can go to the pub like it's not a problem. And so on the flip side, kind of playing devil's advocate, perhaps it's more palatable now than it would have ever have been because there's actual current status of lockdown feels pretty open at this point. And I think I think that that's right. I mean, for you and I, you know, life is is actually not bad, you know, but but if you're working in hospitality, if you're working in the airline sector, if you're running a holiday company, that sector of the of the economy. If we don't open up on June 21, and that that sector even if it's a small sector is is going to continue to be in trouble. And you know, Michael O'Leary was sounding off this morning on behalf of Brian air. So, so it's, yeah, it's going to cause a massive problem for the leisure and hospitality industry. Of course, we don't feel that because we're not part of those industries so so we can. So any insight as to potential, I guess this would be calculated from the data, like from James Ward, for example, he mentioned as a mathematician looking at all the variables but if there is an extension what does that extension look like, what type of time frame are we looking at there to roll that over to then revisit that. Okay, so not as soon as publicly said, I can live with another two weeks, you know, and he, you know, he's the guy who's collecting the taxes so. So he said he could live with another I think I misunderstood. I thought he was referring to the fact that delaying the decision about June 21. And I know for two weeks to say, yeah, yeah, you'll know, but he's actually said he's comfortable with a two week extension beyond the 21st. Let me have a look. Because if that is the case, and that's coming from him, as he said. And he's probably going to be the most in the know about, as she said, he said a reopening so this is according to spastic pain of teaching journalists. So he's relaxed over a two week delay to reopening. Okay, well I think that's a done deal then. It'll be rolled for two weeks, I mean, I do see benefit in that I mean my wife who's five years younger than me she's also already received a letter a week and a half ago to book in for the vaccination so it's already down as you said they're trying to accelerate that vaccination phase. I mean, people in there, literally late 2030s now getting the call so it's quickly gone from like, you know, the 50s to then the 40s and it's going straight down that they've really tried to push it so I think a two week period buys them. If you're right and that supply side picks up quite a big difference in fact. I think it does. Yes. But and maybe that's the way, the way it will happen is, is, yeah, we're going to open up in another two weeks but you're still not going on holiday. I mean, you know, that may. Yeah. But there are so many variables and and you know it's really, it's really tough and you know Boris's instincts. So I think all against this, in terms of stop, you know, Boris would just want to open up that's where his instinct is. But I don't know. I don't know. But in Boris fashion, I think he's bought himself big enough buffer where he can be, he can make that call to delay and whether that whether that being because of the situation of the opposition parties or not but I just think that he's he's built that image of the number of things that have materialized through his so far term. I don't think other people could have possibly quite got away with but he has due to him as a personality and I think also the opposition. We had this conversation before you know he's a unique politician. He's a lucky politician. You know, at the minute, he's getting the credit for the vaccine rather. Actually, it's an interesting thing about the UK in general is is incumbency in Scotland Wales and England have been very helpful to the to all of the administrations in terms of getting elected so you know, you know, Sturgeon did very well in Scotland and Drake would stand very well in Wales because he's perceived to have had a very, very good pandemic. Yeah. Well, let's let's wrap it up there. I'm just conscious of your time. So, yeah, I know we've got non fun payrolls in just a short while. So, yeah. We can do boosters at a later date as we get more information but I think boosters are going to happen. And if the Delta variant and the Nepal variant do become troublesome, then they'll happen in New York. Yeah, well I think I think the next conversation for sure is, we are going to open up at some point, whether it's this month next month whenever it's going to happen. At that point, there probably will be a meaningful wave. Anyway, that's going to hit as the day to suggest in the autumn so I guess at that point of the trajectory then showing we're on that path. I'm sure it'll be due for us to have another conversation to see how the land lies then so you have you haven't booked holiday. No, I'm the only place I'm going is Dorset to a camp site. So, yeah, where are you going. So, yeah, as ever being unplanned for these things my wife takes care of all of the artillery so I have no idea the actual place if they have been shown and there's a nice seafood restaurant right on the little coastal lines so that's what I'm looking forward to. Very wise I think. Yeah. Cool. All right. Thanks very much Mike as ever. All right. Thanks a lot.