 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 3rd of April. Holiday Short and Trading Week this week with many money centres closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday, so expect some lower liquidity this week, potentially less participation as we head into the holiday weekends. From a data perspective, starting in the US this afternoon, Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing also released 47.5 down from the last 47.7 print, partial support from easing costs and supply pressures, but the outlook does remain challenging. We'll also get February construction spending, looking for that to tick up from the negative 0.1% to the flatline 0% softening demand weighing on construction. They're moving into Tuesday, we will get February factory orders looking for a negative 0.5% print there. Durable goods also expected to come in below the zero line. Weakness in new orders indicating a generally subdued capital expenditure outlook. State side, we'll also get February jolt's job openings. Plattening trend reflects the lasting strength in labor demand. State side, we also hear from Fed Speaker Mester heading into Wednesday, February trade balance looking for a negative 68.5 billion print there. The deficit should gradually narrow as consumer spend softens. We will also get services PMIs and the non-manufacturing ISM print, 54.6. The S&P Global Services PMI is expected to have rebounded broadly in line with the ISM print with conditions in the service sector remaining robust. Then heading into Thursday, obviously initial jobless claims, remaining at record low levels for now, and we will hear from Fed Speaker Bullard. Then rounding out the week on Friday, note that the exchanges are only open half day on Friday. We get non-farm payrolls, the March unemployment rates and average hourly earnings. For the non-farm payrolls, market's expecting a 240k print down from the last 311,000. There is the potential we could see that 240k up to as high as 270. The divergence between payrolls and household employment points to many needing multiple jobs just to pay bills and also raises the question over the job quality and the wage growth. We are looking for those average hourly earnings to come in at 0.3% and the unemployment rate to remain anchored to 3.6%. From a technical perspective, Dollar Index continued to find resistance above that 102.50 level last week. Although we did see a pop into the close on Friday, we are reversing that now as we head into the new month and quarter. Seeing some supply come into the market, I'm anticipating that as long as we hold below this 103.20 level, I look for a retest of 101.70s, a break of that 101.50 to give us our downside objective for this week at 101. In extension, we can see a test of those prior swing lows at 100.70, but initially we're going to target that 101 level, weekly projected range of support coming in just below there at 193. At this stage, take a close back through the high volume node 103.20s to suggest further upside 103.60s will be the next stop on the top side. Moving to the Eurozone, Data Canada is pretty scant. We've had PMIs out this morning. Moving into Wednesday, we will see services PMIs. The manufacturing PMI came in just below that 50 expansion level, but showing a modest improvement in the Eurozone. In terms of the services, looking for those to come in above the 50 level, 55.6 there for the final estimate. That really rounds out the data in terms of the Eurozone this week. From a technical perspective, the Euro dollar continues to remain supported. As long as we hold above this key 107.50, 107.60 level, I'm looking for a further upside extension here through this double top at the 109.20s to actually get a test up into these prior swing highs, 110.30s and weekly projected range resistance coming in there at 110.14. This stage would need a close back through the 107.00 handle to suggest a more meaningful move to the downside. We'd be thinking about something back into weekly projected range support down to 106.20s, but for now, focus is on the upside for the Euro dollar. Moving to the UK. In terms of data, again, pretty scant given the holiday short and weak, we will get on Wednesday, importantly, services PMI data from the UK, expecting 52.8 there as the final estimate. That really is the only data of no coming out of the UK this week. We will hear from some central bank speakers during the week. We heard from PIL this morning, and we're expected to hear from more central bank speakers from the Bank of England this week. Really, the focus is on whether or not we have seen the terminal level in terms of the UK rate environment. Governor Bailey in recent comments seems to be alluding towards a potential for a pause in terms of the UK rate cycle. From a technical perspective, that has done little to deter sterling bulls. We saw a modest pullback on Friday into the support zone at the 122.70s. Looking now for further upside extension back through the price cycle highs 124.25 onto the next upside objective, which is 125.30s. That also coincides with weekly projected range resistance coming in just above their 126.60s. Those are the upside targets at this stage. It would really take a close back through the 121.50s to suggest a more meaningful pullback in terms of sterling. Moving to Japan. Data slate. We will get on Wednesday services PMI looking for 54.2 as the final estimate there. Then heading into Friday we will get February household spending, the annualised level looking for 4.6% up from the negative 0.3% last time out. Labour market and income remain supportive in terms of household spending in Japan. From a technical perspective, looking for the yen to test into the 134 handle from there. I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns and certainly when we think about moving back down initially to test the 131.50s. Ultimately, we are looking for a full test of the 129.50s for this next bearish sequence that we are setting up in terms of the dollar yen. Moving to Australia. Big news this week is going to be the RBA policy decision. Are they going to put a temporary pause in place given the 350 basis point rise that we've seen in terms of rates down under in Australia? Looking for a potential pause there before seeing maybe a final 25 basis point move up in May. Ultimately, we are looking at a Reserve Bank of Australia who are likely to be looking to move to a pause perspective. We will also hear from Governor Low on Wednesday. He addresses a national press club in Sydney. Then moving to Thursday, we will get February trade balance looking for $11.3 billion. Aussie dollars is the consensus that some are pointing to the potential for higher trade balance, $12.6 billion. Imports are a partial unwind of 29% spike in terms of transport goods. That will be one to keep an eye on. We will also get the RBA financial stability review released on Thursday. That's the biannual update. Then moving into Friday, as with many markets, public holidays. No data of notes. Moving to the charts, the Aussie dollar continues to remain supported above the pivot here at $66.25. As it does so, I'm looking for an upside extension. Our target now versus the swing structure we have in place at $66.25 low gives us $68.20. I will be looking for that to be achieved this week. Now, obviously, the RBA decision could impact that if we see a meaningful move outside of consensus, but widely expected to be on hold. We will look for a drift higher this week in terms of the Aussie dollar. Broadly in line with risk sentiment to test up into our $68.20. Last but not least, let's check in with Bitcoin. Bitcoin can just shy last week of our $30,000 objective. As long as we hold above support now at the $26,500, we are looking for that upside extension into the $30,000 level. From there, we will be watching for bearish reversal patterns, momentum divergence to kick in. I think we see a deeper pull back in terms of Bitcoin, back into the $25,500 zone will be the objective there. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 3rd of April. As always, traders plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.