 Hello, welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday, the 15th of March, and this week's weekly market update. Now last week I talked about oil prices and I talked about the euro and the pound. And subsequently in the wake of the European Central Bank rate meeting we did indeed get a rally in the euro. We broke above that 200-day moving average that I talked about in last week's video and are now currently holding above it. And I'm going to cover the euro later on in this video. I'm also going to have a brief look at the pound as well in light of the fact that we've got the UK budget this week. We've got the Bank of England meeting this week and we've also got the latest Federal Reserve rate meeting. And leading up to that meeting we've seen a nice little rebound in equity markets across the board. And in particular I'm going to have a look at the S&P 500 because you may have read an awful lot of headlines over the weekend that the S&P 500 had broken above its 200-day moving average. And for those of you technical analysis aficionados who know about those sorts of things, the 200-day moving average is a very key long-term directional indicator. And I'm going to articulate why I think you need to be very, very cautious about this particular breakout. So I'm going to start with the S&P 500, a daily chart, and as can be seen from this chart, looking at the 200-day moving average, we have pushed above it. But I think it's very, very important when you hear headlines about breaking above the 200-day moving average that you look at it in the context of the price history before it. Now this chart here gives a very clear indication that the price history before it is pretty much trendless. And that should be a warning sign. Furthermore, the 200-day moving average is sloping down. And if we're going to be crossing above it then really what we want to see is it's starting to turn up. That's clearly not happening and this oscillator is also showing very overbought tendencies. Now those of you who also know that I like to talk about correlations will know that I also look for confirming signals in other indices. And certainly we've got a similar signal in the Dow Jones, but we don't have one in the DAX and we don't have one in the Nikkei. So that makes me very cautious about this particular breakout and makes me more inclined to ignore it. So to reinforce that earlier point I'm going to have a look at the DAX here and you can see very clearly from this daily chart that we're well below the 200-day moving average. Yes, it's still sloping down. The oscillator is very overbought and we're below a very key resistance level around about 10,100. And it's key simply because it's active support and resistance in equal measure over the course of the last few months. Again, similar sort of story on the Nikkei 225, the Japan 225. This chart illustrates that point very well. Again, significantly below the 200-day moving average and as such it makes me very suspicious of the S&P 500 breakout. So we're going to move on to currencies now and euro-dollar and as can be seen from this very long candle on Thursday we broke above the 110-50 level which had acted as resistance on the way up. It's now likely to act as support on the way down. So any dips as long as we hold above 110-50 then the likely prospect is that we could well see a further retest of the 112 highs of last week. A move below 110-30 is likely to see the euro pushback lower towards that very, very key support level that I've outlined on the chart at a bottom between 107-80 and 108. And last but by no means least we're going to finish off with cable because despite the rally that we've seen at the end of last week to above 144 we have slipped back quite significantly. Now we've got the UK budget on Wednesday that's likely to be an exercise in obfuscation, ignore it, it's noise, it does not matter. The Chancellor is not likely to make any meaningful changes that will affect the pound. Key support here is between 140-80 and 140-120. If we hold above that then we could well retest the highs that we saw last week. So that concludes this week's weekly market update. Just as a side note we are hosting, CMC markets are hosting a couple of events in Glasgow and Edinburgh on Wednesday and Thursday so if you're in the area and want to attend please feel free to stop by. You can sign up on the website under the learn tag on the website otherwise. Thanks very much for listening. Until next week this is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC markets.