 This is Covering the Spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on Into Covering the Spread. That's right here on the Fandible Podcast Network and numberfire.com as we are taking a look ahead at the NFL divisional round of the playoffs. We are talking with Chris Andrews. He is the director of South Point Sportsbook, breaking down his lines for this weekend. What he's thinking about various numbers where he's leaning and also talking about his book then one day, 40 years of bookmaking in Nevada. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com and find him on Twitter at thepowerranked. We are in the second round of the NFL playoffs. It's an exciting time. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Looking forward to another excellent weekend of NFL football and yeah, national title game on Monday. It's going to be great. No, it's not a good. It's a fantastic three days. Absolutely. We broke down the national championship with Teddy Savransky. Teddy Covers on yesterday's podcast. You can find that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. And while you're there, you can subscribe, rate, interview the podcast. Thank you to those of you who have done so already. And speaking of college football, before we came on the air today, it broke like 15 seconds. I think before we called you, Ed, Mike Leach is going to Mississippi State, which means the egg bowl is Lane Kiffin versus Mike Leach. I don't know if I could possibly be more excited for this. I know we were trying to line up some stuff with Chris Andrews and the call. And it was like you dropped a couch on top of my head. That dude. This doesn't feel right to me. Mike Leach is, to put it mildly, a bit quirky. And I think it kind of works in Washington State. And I just don't know if it works in the SEC. Yep. He's going to score. It just doesn't feel like a culture fit to me. I mean, maybe some parts of it do. I think. And from what I've read, part of the problems with Joe Morehead and why they decided to let him go and so late in the season was it was like a weird cultural fit because he was a guy from the Northeast and it kind of didn't work in the deep South there. It just doesn't seem right. I don't know. What do you think? I don't know football-wise. I do know that it means that Mike Leach's post-game press conferences will no longer be at 2 o'clock in the morning. And as an East coaster, selfishly, that's all I need. Because I disagree with Mike Leach on several things. But I'm never bored when I'm listening to him talk. And I find value in that. And it means that when I'm listening to him talk, it is not going to be Sunday morning when I'm trying to do NFL stuff. It's going to be I can actually see it Saturday night. And so like football stuff aside, Lane Kiffin new rivalry with Mike Leach aside, I am selfishly excited to have Mike Leach press conferences not be in the middle of the night for me personally. Yeah. No, that's interesting. And we'll see. I mean, if he can pay like $2 million for a defensive coordinator, maybe he'll get it done down there. So you never know. You never know. I'm actually, I don't think that necessarily But I like the idea of him getting a defensive coordinator. And then obviously he takes the reins on the offensive side of the ball. But and you can bet your bottom. We'll be talking plenty about Mike Leach once the fall comes around to. Yeah, absolutely. That's going to be a whole lot of fun. I am looking forward to that for sure. So next year is to be interesting. We have a lot to wrap up on Monday as well with the National Championship. So it's going to be a fun little stretch here across college football. But before that, we got talks and NFL playoffs. Again, we're talking with Chris Andrews. He is the director of South Point Sportsbook. You can find him on Twitter at Andrews Sports. And we're going to talk to him about his book. Again, it's called Then One Day. You can find that over on Amazon previewing the division around the NFL playoffs and talking a little bit of just sportsbook stuff in general. Because Ed, we talked with John Sheeran last week. But I feel like we haven't gotten enough of that talk. And talking to guys who actually make the lines is just so fascinating that I'm excited to see to hear what Chris has to say. Yeah, absolutely. Chris on the football analytics show not too long ago. And just a lot of great insights. And obviously, he's very kind to give these out because he's given them out to people that are going to be going against him in the state of Nevada. But Chris is fantastic. Absolutely. We'll get to that in just a little bit. But before we do, so we had to take a look back at last week, we mentioned John Sheeran. We had John Sheeran on the show to break down the wild card round. We're going to go back through the bets that John had mentioned, the sides he preferred there. And also what we had on what was a very interesting wild card weekend. So let's go back to that and then circle back around to the divisional round. Covering the past. Last week, we had John Sheeran, as mentioned of Fandall Sports Book, on to preview the wild card round. Find John on Twitter at Jay Sheeran 1981. Started things off on Saturday afternoon, where John was favoring the Texan side at minus 2 and 1 half. And they did need overtime to get it, but they wound up covering in that one. So win for John there with the Texans minus 2 and 1 half. And Ed, we were talking in Slack and the Number Fire Slack during that game. And people were getting into Josh Allen. And I was like, he's got some James in him. And he went full James after that. I didn't expect to go that bad. But when Josh Allen runs bad, Josh Allen runs bad. It's wild. Yeah, I know he's wild in particular. I didn't think that he could make. Well, actually, I know he could make some of those throws. But Josh Allen has more consistently done things that I just did not think was possible on the NFL level for him. In the positive and the negative sense. Because no, I expected all the negative, Jim. I mean, I expected this to be the biggest disaster in Buffalo Billets history. And I still don't really like the long-term prospects for that franchise. But I've got to give props to Josh Allen. He made some throws. And he's made more throws in what I've seen this year than I thought he could ever do at the NFL level. I think I've watched too much Josh Allen is my issue. Because I live in Syracuse, which means we get all the Buffalo games. And if you watch enough Josh Allen, it's kind of like we talked about, it's not comparable. But it's a similar sentiment we got when we were talking to Evan Silva, where he says, we remember the bad plays. I remember a lot of really freaking bad plays by Josh Allen. And they'll stand out to me. But which member he can make the dazzling play to. And that matters. It'll be interesting to see what he does in the future. I think I like the organization. I like the way they attack things. I love the way they address the offensive line this year in taking mid-level free agents and trying to address that similar to what they did at Wide Receiver. I liked their approach. They did things. They were very analytically smart this year. If you take a look at their play calling tendencies and stuff. So I think I have some faith in the organization. I am just not sold on their quarterback yet. Hopefully we can benefit from them being analytically savvy. But he's not boring. He's like Mike Leach. Not boring. Definitely not boring. Then we had Saturday night. We had the Patriots versus the Titans. And all three of us had something on this game. Both you and John mentioned the Patriots minus 5 and 1 half against the Titans. Then I had the under on 44 and 1 half points. And the Titans covered in one there. But the under did hit by a pretty comfortable margin. It was actually pacing to go over in the first half. But I think that the Patriots offense was kind of just worse than we could have possibly anticipated. And they had showed that. But it's just weird to see it on such a big stage. Yeah, for sure. I mean, they weren't good. And another thing that stuck out. The offense has been good enough that it has kind of masked the fact that Belichick has gotten really lame on fourth down. Like he just doesn't go for it. And I feel like that really showed up in this game. I mean, they were in Tennessee territory with a fourth and one. Did not go for it. Decided to punt. We're on the goal line. Had another opportunity. And I get that their offensive line was having issues, right? Like they couldn't do anything in the short yard situation. I think Tom Brady in the past has been phenomenal at the quarterback sneak. Maybe they decided he was too old for that. So I think when you're not as good as you have been, and they've really been good on the offensive side of the ball for the last however many years, then all of a sudden, if you're not going for it on fourth and one, it kind of rears its head. And so they just couldn't get it done. You're losing those little edges. And those are the little edges the Patriots have always had. And that becomes a bigger issue when you're not as good. You're not good enough to make up for it elsewhere. And I think that really did show up. And I think that what you were saying was correct in that because the offense wasn't as good, Belichick felt he couldn't be as aggressive. But the weird thing is the Titans did the same thing like that punt. They took the intentional delay of game and they ran the clock down like a minute or whatever. That was still a really conservative call, but it didn't matter. And it was a weird game. I'm glad I had the under on that game. I didn't have faith in either offense. Ryan Tannehill did nothing there to kind of prove me wrong. We'll talk more about him later, both with Chris and then in my cover in the future too. But yeah, I'm having a hard time there for sure. Moving on to the Sunday games, John and you both said your numbers favored the Vikings at plus seven and a half, but the anecdote around the Saints pushed you away. And like, I don't blame you. I think that was probably a savvy move not to go there. But hey, the numbers were right again, even though it's not necessarily a bet we recommended, your numbers were right at. Like, I don't know, it's been a couple of times this year where your numbers have been spot on. It's just been other things around it that have pushed us away. Yeah, absolutely. I think we saw one of the worst games from New Orleans offense. I think we saw one of the best games from Minnesota defense has really struggled and looked pretty old. The pass rush looked pretty good. And then, you know, Thielen looked pretty bad in parts of the game and then comes up with a big catch towards the end. I mean, that's the NFL, right? Yeah. You know, even as high as I was on New Orleans, you know, I had a 29% chance that Minnesota was going to win that game. So I mean, not quite one in three, it's going to happen. Yeah. And it did in this game. Yeah, Thielen had like that terrible fumble. He had a drop. I think he had a hold on a running play too. He was terrible in the first half. And then second half he goes nuts. And then we had the long Taysum Hill completion followed by a Drew Brees fumble because nothing made sense. It was just, it was a fun game, you know? I'm from Minnesota. I was pretty excited about it. So it was fun. It was a great game. And weren't they saying that the ratings were incredible this wild card weekend? Which is what you would expect when you had two amazing games going to overtime. You had the whole narrative of how Buffalo hadn't won a playoff game since whenever I think- You had Brady potentially at the end of the dynasty type thing. Yeah. So, and I mean, Buffalo's win probability. I mean, what was Buffalo's win probability at 16-0? Midway through the third quarter or later. 75, 75 might be conservative. 75 I think is conservative. Again, that's a Josh Allen creeping in. Cause there's nothing- Everything about Josh Allen is volatile. And then I got into a big argument with my mother-in-law who's a Buffalo fan about the kickoff. Oh yeah. Like giving himself up. And so she was all right about that. And I was like- Oh, with the fair catch or the non-fair catch? Yeah. The fair catch, non-fair catch, like clearly gave himself up. I was staring at it. I was like, you know, he just called fair catch. And I thought I was like going insane. And then they like started talking about it. And I was like, okay, well, I feel better at least. But that was weird. It was weird. But yeah, I mean, overall the week was awesome. And I am excited for younger quarterbacks to thrive now that Breeze and Brady are out. Like I like watching them play, but I want to see my homes, Jackson, those guys do what they can do. Final game on Sunday was Eagles Seahawks. John said he liked the Eagles plus one and a half. And the Seahawks obviously did cover there. Hard to know what impacts Carson Wentz getting hurt would have had. It was the exact same score they had the first meeting when Carson Wentz was fully healthy for the full game. I just think it kind of sucks that Carson Wentz didn't get a chance to like prove himself here. He would have had a tough, it would have been tough for him regardless because they didn't have Brandon Brooks, didn't have Lane Johnson. He would have been in a very tough spot, but it's things to have someone get that chance and then not get a chance to prove themselves. So I just, mostly I just feel bad for Carson Wentz. Yeah. Well, and you know, I mean, if you're betting Philadelphia plus whatever. Right. At home, that's a bummer too, not having your meeting guy to come back and maybe get that win. Yep. So let's look down the divisional round next with Chris Andrews in just one second. But first, if you want to get in on the action, check out the Fandall Sportsbook and place your first bet today. If you lose, Fandall will give you a refund up to $500 in psych credit. Visit sportsbook.fandall.com for more details, terms and conditions apply, must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Indiana. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. And of course, they're also retail Fandall Sportsbook all across the U.S. outside of those states as well. Let's bring in Chris Andrews now to break down the divisional round of the playoffs. Find him on Twitter at Andrews Sports. Again, he is the director of the South Point Sportsbook. Wrote a book this June called Then One Day, 40 Years of Bookmaking Nevada. We're gonna talk to Chris about that and get set for all four games this weekend. Covering the present. Let's welcome Chris Andrews into covering the spread to preview the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Chris, it is a pleasure to have you on the line for today. How you doing? I'm doing great. Thanks. And let me say it's my pleasure talking to you guys. I love talking to smart people and you guys definitely make the grade. Way better than I do. I could tell you that. No, I don't think so, Chris. You have 40 years of bookmaking experience in Nevada and you wrote about that in your book called Then One Day, 40 Years of Bookmaking in Nevada. Tell us about how the book came about and what people can expect to find in the book. Well, the book came about from a segment I did on Gil Alexander's show. Well, on his podcast first and then we did it on his show too. And Gil always called it story time. And you're just telling stories of the old days and I'm 63 years old and came to Las Vegas in 1979. And stuff that was just kind of normal to me, I didn't realize just how new and different it was to guys that are certainly much younger than me and just see the scenario and the industry right now and didn't realize all the changes that happened and how we got here. And so me telling those stories just really resonated with a lot of folks. You know, the old guys like me liked hearing it and the young guys were just fascinated with the changes that came about and you know, the evolution of the industry from 1979 and you know, how we got to where we are today. So that's what they encouraged me to write the book and I did and it has resonated with a lot of people. They like reading it and the sales have been really good and you know, I was glad to write. It was a great connect. You don't make a fortune writing these books by the way but it's more a connection with people and I feel I've had that connection. That makes me feel good. Absolutely, I've read the book. It's fantastic. There's so many good stories, not only from kind of your experience but you know, bad book making from other people in your industry that are not as talented as you are, Chris. So I highly recommend that everyone go check that out. And Chris, I wanna ask what are some of the biggest changes that you've noticed? I was reading up, you know, on Visa they've got, you know, a bio of you and I was reading up on some of those there but for you in your time, in your 40 years what are some of the biggest changes you have noticed over that time? Well, I just, the market has grown and the options have grown. I remember going into Bill Dark's casino sports book in North Las Vegas. I mean, this is, you know, in the late 70s and I remember seeing it at a football game and you know, I saw the point spread like minus seven, what's that 38 up there next to it? And the guy told me, well, that's the total the over and under, you could bet that too. I was like, really? I don't think I'd ever heard of that, you know and you know, that was just one of the changes that was brand new. And as far as I know, Bill Dark was the first one to use those, you know, but I'm sure if Bill was around the day he'd claim credit for it but I'm like, I'm not sure he invented it but that was the first time I had seen it and so that just shows you where the industry is gone. I mean, that was like a brand new thing and then we started doing money lines and half times and you know, the market has just expanded so, so much and in the years since then that like I said guys don't realize, you know, when I, well first of all when my uncle started his business and I talk about my uncle Jack prominently in the book you know, the point spread was like a new thing before that it was just the odds to win the game and then some guy invented the point spread. Brad, I wish I could recall his name, I can't offhand but you know, the point spread and that obviously really changed the industry so dramatically because now that, you know the point spread is supposedly the great equalizer and you know, that changed the business and you know, it's just been one evolution after another since that time and that's how and here we are today with the industry the way it is and people just take so much for granted but we had, we had to start at point A and you know, I guess we're at point B now but they'll look, you know, years from now and say wow, that's all you guys did now we're doing all these other things too, you know so. Yeah, definitely and like you look at the markets for this weekend, you can bet on who's gonna have the most passing yards of the division around and all these different markets and you know, Chris, we can talk to you about, you know, your current state as a bookmaker as well not just your past but now over at South Point obviously you've got a bunch of different markets there so for you as a bookmaker in 2019 and 2020 what market for you is the most difficult to set when you're setting out lines for an NFL weekend which one gives you the most pause and is the hardest for you as a bookmaker? Well as far as NFL stuff, you know those kind of things that you just mentioned the individual player type stuff, you know because you really have to, you have to look at the matchup, you have to look at the health of whoever you're doing and you know let's say like, you know, Ingram, a guy this week you know, you gotta look at him, he's, you know he's, you know, first of all, he's 30 years old which to me is hard enough to believe right there but he's 30 years old which is, you know old for running back and you know he's been, been banged up a little bit lately and you know, is he gonna play? I mean, I don't think he's a full participant in practice today, is he gonna play? How much is he gonna play? How much are they gonna feature in? You know, he's certainly an important part of the team if, if and when he's healthy, you know so those kind of things are really coming to play so, and then you have to look at the matchup again, you know, who, who are they playing? How good are they against, you know whatever type of, you know, if it's a quarterback what kind of defense, pass defensively looking at running back, what kind of run defensively are you looking at? You know, what's, what's the nature of the game? Like I said, a game takes on a life of itself, you know like look at the Super Bowl last year, you know total I think was 56 or something like that I wanna say and we wound up 13-3 but the game does take on a life of its own and you know, before the game we kind of think we know what's gonna happen we know, you know, usually pretty close to what's gonna happen but there's always that aberration and like I said that Super Bowl is a perfect example we expected a high scoring game with two terrific offenses and it turned into anything but that and you know, I'm sure we'll look back on this weekend in one of these games that we expect to go a certain way you know, we'll go nothing like that but you know, can we anticipate it beforehand? I mean, some people do and as close as we can get to that you know, the more successful you'll be as a gambler or bookmaker but it's hard to do but I'd say for me personally the biggest challenge is setting those individual matchups that's always tough. Chris, can you give the audience just a sense for how you set the line, you know kind of how numbers play a part and what you're looking to do as a bookmaker for an NFL spread? Well, I try to set the right line what's that mean? You know, I try to give a price that I feel gives both sides a 50-50 chance of winning the bet that doesn't always mean you're gonna get bets on you know, 50-50 as far as equal bets I mean, in fact, that's almost impossible it really doesn't happen and you know, guys that maybe have like a little bit of knowledge in this business think that that's the goal of the bookmaker it's really not and like I said, and certainly speaking for myself you know, I think that, you know we wanna put up a number that gives us a 50-50 chance of winning the bet but then once the market starts coming in and you see which way the number's going you wanna go, you wanna get on the side of the sharper betters and you know, you can do that sometimes sometimes you can't because if the public is on the same side as the sharp betters and you know you might be in a little bit of trouble in that game and that's, you know, happened plenty of times to me over my career but you're trying to get in with, you know when you see the smart money come in on one side or the other you know, you try to move that accordingly and if the public's on the other side then you know, you try to not react to what they're doing now at some point, like I said, there is times when they're on the same side you know, that's, you gotta try to beat that game and we certainly have beaten our share of those games over the course of time but we've lost an inordinate amount too, I would say you know, so those are the things you have to look at but having 50-50 action on both games that's, you know, that's an ideal that you're never gonna get, number one, number two I'm not sure you wanna get that ideal if you rather go in with the sharp guys meeting the same side as they do that's probably your best bet in the long term. Interesting, and I think that it's always important to be active to the market are there situations where you have a number that you want to stick to even if the sharps are against it or are you going to just kinda listen to what they're telling you to do essentially? You know, probably most of the time I'm listening to what they're telling me now that doesn't mean 100% certainly but most of the time I do have to have a lot of respect you know, for the edfangs of the world you know, when they come in on the side you know, seriously, I gotta respect that and I'm not gonna just ignore it, I can tell you that you know, there's times it's just the opposite when the public comes in on the side I love when they say, well that looks like a trap game it's a trap game and probably 95% of the time they're betting on a road favorite and they just, the number doesn't look high enough to them and you know, that was a trap game and you know, I've never heard a bookmaker once never say, oh we're gonna set a trap for him in this game I never heard that, you know but guys like to think that and like I said, usually it's when usually a favorite that's not high enough and mostly a road favorite that's not high enough is that's how these guys think so you know, naturally we try to take advantage of that when that comes around, that's just where that happens Let's have a look at a couple of games here Chris so I'm starting off with the Vikings at the 49ers 49ers at Fanduil Sportsbook are seven point favorites and obviously Chris, you're over at South Point so you can always feel free to mention the number you have there if it differs from Fanduil the total here is 44 and a half and this 49ers defense thing is very interesting from a bookmaking perspective because they got off to this really hot start this year and they've cooled partly because of injuries but the guys that got hurt like Juan Alexander and Dee Ford are coming back now so as a bookmaker, how are you weighing what you saw from the 49ers early on versus what we've seen from them recently when trying to set a line for this team or a team like them? Okay, well a couple things first of all that number opened mostly six and a half I opened seven I just thought that was a better number we'll go over that in a second but they did gobble up the seven quickly and then I went into the market and like I said I had the respect to play that they gave me was a sharp better as it took the seven now we're back to seven on that game and I can see they're coming in strongly even minus the seven and I know what you're saying about the defense I looked and I don't have the figure off hand but I think in the last six weeks I wanna say they gave up 20 or 21 points or more in every single one of those games their offense has been good enough to overcome that for the most part when I talked to Ed a couple weeks ago one of the things I mentioned was sometimes momentum not always the best thing to do in the NFL but you can get a hot team late in the season in December and into January and a lot of times a healthy team's a hot team and the Niners have not been healthy but I really think this week off has helped them quite a bit you mentioned some of the defensive guys that are coming back this week and I think that defensive line who was terrific early in the early part of the season probably not quite so terrific the last third of the season I think that's finally gotten a little bit healthier and I think that their defense will be very, very good now the Vikings, that's a team that's playing some pretty good ball they have some health issues I think on the offensive side particularly with their wide receivers and the digs had the flu I think he still has it as we speak you know guys like that healthy kids you know he's really, I mean he's still a kid I mean he figures to get healthy by Saturday feeling maybe not so much you know he's been hurt for a while now and he's been a pretty important part of the offense they obviously won last week and battled through that but I'm not sure it's a perfect scenario for them this week and I think with the week off I think that really helps the Niners again I'm not trying to really pick the winner but I thought seven was a much better number than six and a half I mean to me six and a half is a one-way number you have to lay that, not take it seven I think that gives you pause and like I said I'm not trying to pick the winners I think laying seven in an NFL game you know almost at any time could be a dangerous thing but I do think seven was a much better number than six and a half and I'm looking around I see pretty much all seven there's some sevens there's some sevens with juice on the dog but I think seven is a much much better number going forward and matter of fact we might even get over the seven at some point we don't use juice here at the south point we use everything at 11 at 10 so if we move off to seven we're gonna wind up going to seven and a half I hope that's not the situation because that would leave us a little bit vulnerable but I could see where that might happen and again I think six and a half is a one-way number where seven is giving people a little bit more pause and I hope we don't have to move off that seven I think seven is actually a pretty good number to use Excellent, yeah I really enjoy that conversation when we talked about that you can follow momentum much more so in college football than the NFL following momentum kind of gets you killed except for maybe the next team Titans are Ravens this year Ravens have been phenomenal they are nine and a half point favorite in this game total at 46 and a half Fandall started out at 10 apparently he's been bouncing around would love to know Chris what you had this game initially and where you're at right now Yeah, forget everything I just said about the last game so I saw this number open 10 I opened nine and a half they laid it to me pretty quickly we went to 10 they took the 10 I'm at nine right now and again I think nine is just a much better number and I don't want to go crazy one way or the other here because I do think the Ravens have had a terrific team all year I think they're really well coached I think Lamar Jackson certainly deserves to be the MVP he's been terrific all season but there is some momentum on the side of the Titans they've played much much better since Tannehill has been the quarterback I think Vrabel is also a very good coach and Tannehill, I mean we've seen this for years you know a quarterback has to kind of find the right situation for himself and you look back and you know guys like Joe Montano I think is a fantastic quarterback he was also very lucky to wind up with Bill Walsh you know we could say the same about Tom Brady I think he's a terrific quarterback but he was also very very lucky to find a coach and a system that fit him perfectly you know Tannehill was not so fortunate the first whatever six, seven years of his career might have been a little less than that but anyway I think he's found a situation now that really exploits his talent well and I think Vrabel like I said I think he's a good coach I think we'll look back years from now and say he's a very good coach but I think that this situation fits him I think the team is really playing well and I think it's a big number even at the nine I think it's a very very big number so I think nine's a good number as far as a betting number but I think the ten I think I thought that was ridiculous I thought that was way too high I think ten you have to take the ten teams really playing well in a lot of facets of the game and we mentioned Ingram not a hundred percent sounds like he'll play but playing and being effective are two different things so I think he'll play I don't know how effective he'll be but I think this Titan's team has a great shot certainly covering the number and even a pretty decent shot a win in the game outright Chris I want to talk to you more about Ryan Tannehill because he's been a really interesting guy this year and I feel like as a bookmaker he'd be a hard guy to evaluate because we have this long sample of Tannehill really struggling but as you mentioned it's a totally different situation with him in Tennessee versus when he was in Miami under Adam Gase what was the process for you in evaluating this Titan's team and how long was it before you started to set lines and really reflected the way that Tannehill was playing? That's an interesting question my our friend, Joe Alexander was like Mr. Anti-Mariota for a couple years now and I kid you, I should have listened to you earlier because he had pointed out Mariota just wasn't, again, not a good quarterback not playing well maybe if he goes to a different team under a different system maybe he could do well that's certainly possible because I think the kid does have a certain amount of talent in certain areas and if he found the right system maybe he would thrive none the less when they made the change here you know I didn't really adjust my power rating at that time I didn't know what to think of Tannehill I didn't think much of Mariota like I said I probably should have listened to Gil a little earlier but he, so I didn't really adjust my power rating at that time now as the season progressed I had to adjust my power rating upwardly you know because like I said I think Rable's a good coach I think the team's a good team has a lot of good things going for them and you know Henry's really playing some decent ball and the whole team is playing well and Tannehill seems to fit that team extremely well they kind of got into the playoffs in the last week of the season but they did that and they did that with playing good ball with a lot of momentum and I kind of scoff at momentum in the NFL but you have to look at each thing individually and I'm not scoffing at this team and they're the momentum that they've created that they're playing terrific ball and you're getting a big number here yeah I think it's a really alive team but like I said I had to adjust my power rating as we saw them play because it was real it was nothing that they could just kind of you know poo poo and say that it's they were beating a bunch of stiffs and all that and they beat who they were playing but regardless they were they were playing they were playing good football and I think they've they've that's a team that's that's gotten better and better as the season has progressed all right so it should be a fun game on Saturday night let's move now to the Sunday games we got the Texans at the Chiefs in Arrowhead the Chiefs nine and a half point favorites and the total is 51 and this Texans team is at least for me been kind of hard to figure out this year they're pretty volatile they win a home against New England lay a massive egg against Drew Locke and the Broncos what about you Chris has it been hard for you to evaluate this Texans team because I think they've been impossible at times uh yeah I would probably echo those same sentiments you know I first of all I think the Sean Watson is a terrific quarterback and we've talked about Lamar Jackson definitely deserves the MVP this year but I think when we look back on their careers you know with a lot of moving parts coaching and you know surrounding uh talent I'm not sure Watson won't be the better quarterback when we look back because I kind of think he will be myself uh Bill O'Brien you know I'm a Penn State guy so I kind of like O'Brien or what he what he did at Penn State certainly but you know there's there's been a lot of inconsistencies in his pro career he gets knocked an awful lot I'm not sure that's accurate because he's made the playoffs and like four of the six years or something like that as a coach you know um so I don't I don't want to knock him too much but there has been some some very questionable things on his side as far as being a coach you know I think all that kind of comes into play and you know inconsistent means not always bad not always good you know so there's been some good things certainly out of the Texans but yeah I'm kind of like you I think I think there are a very difficult team to figure on the other hand I think this chief's team this is a team that's playing really well and uh I think if you look at Andy Reid he is one of those guys it's made some some poor in-game decisions I think but overall I think he's a very very good coach and right now that the chief's defense is playing extremely well their offense has had some up and downs ups and downs but a lot of that had to do with Mahomes' health and right now he seems to me to be pretty healthy I think the week off certainly helps the chiefs I'm I forget what the record is with Andy Reid coming off a buy and I'm not sure what that translates to in the playoffs or maybe a different situation but I do think right now I like the higher number with the chiefs because I think I think they're playing the best ball right now and if you gun to my head I know the Ravens are probably the best team and deserve to be the number one seed but like I said gun to my head I think I want to take the chiefs I think they're playing the best of everybody and defensively offensively I think that's going to be one tough out and I expect them to win this game like I said I'm going to use the highest number I see around on this game and right now I don't see any 10s my action is pretty even on this one but if I see 10s popping up I'm not going to hesitate to go because I do think they're the right side in this game interesting Houston did visit Kansas City earlier this year Kansas City closes a three and a half point favorite in early October so do you think the market has just shifted that much appropriately towards the chiefs yes I do think it's shifted appropriately I think right now like I said their defense is really playing well and that was the question mark coming into this game I mean coming into this season as far as the chiefs go but their defense has just gotten better and better over the course of the season I think if you look back at the last five, six weeks that defense is playing as well as anybody and I think Mahomes and you know we talked about Deshaun Watson, Lamora Jackson but you know I mean to me still Mahomes is the head of the class and he's got a lot of help around them he's got a great coach that I think really fits him well and all that comes into play but you know all that being said yeah I think the chiefs are the best team right now and you know like I said if I see 10 popping up on this game I'm not going to hesitate to go because I think that's the right side and if I could have the chiefs going for me in this game then that's what I'm going to try to do talking about the bi-week for the chiefs this may be only the sixth time all year they've had all five of their offensive linemen healthy I think that bi-week was pretty impactful for them let's finish up here with the Seahawks at the Packers I was talking about the Texans being hard to figure out I don't know either of these teams they are confusing as heck the Packers 4-point favorites over at Vanduul Sportsbook the total here is 47 and when you look at advanced numbers on both these teams they tend to say that these teams are not as good as their records would indicate so what has been your read on both the Seahawks and Packers so far this year Chris? Yeah I would definitely agree with that statement both of these teams have kind of outplayed their metrics and I think if you look just at some very simple numbers with Aaron Rodgers if you look at some simple numbers you think what a great year he's had maybe a delve a little deeper it's probably not that great but here they are with a bi and playing at home and the week off probably helped them too uh that you know for me uh and in the south point right now it's probably the best team to advance to the Super Bowl out of the NFC for us I can tell you that so I'm going to probably be rooting for them come Sunday regardless of where the action is now right now this number opened mostly three and a half I like the four a lot better so I opened four and they grabbed it off me right away you know the way those market is you know you you're half point off and they they can't wait to jump on it and they did but meanwhile it's gone to four and I'm even starting to see a lot of four and a halfs pop up I'm not sure about the four and a half I probably like that a little bit better than the four but I'm not ready to go that yet I'm still with that early action I had on the Seahawks I'm still a little heavy with Seahawk money uh you know the Seahawks they you know they've had a lot of injuries themselves you know and they they I don't think they're all that great of a team I love Russell Wilson you know I really up until the last you know month of the season I thought that he was a very legitimate candidate to be the MVP a very deserving candidate but you know Lamar Jackson just really blew by him there but nonetheless I think that I think Russell Wilson is just a terrific quarterback and keep them in this game but I'm not crazy about the rest of the team and I think uh I think the week off is probably really going to help the Packers here I say that with all the teams because you know really that that that week off at this point this season just means an awful lot and these teams deserve it the ones that that earned it you know they they earned it and they got it you know good for them and I do I kind of like the Packers a little bit in this spot not crazy about them but the four I think I think four is a pretty good betting number in this spot but yeah both teams probably probably outplay their metrics both of them so I'm not sure which way to go in this game that's why I think four is a pretty good number and by the way let me say this before we go any further whoever decides to change the schedule on Sunday and have two games later but my hats go off to him that's great for for bookmakers it gives them a lot more time to bet these games so hats off to them I think I think we're gonna have a terrific Sunday I think we're gonna have terrific Saturday and terrific Sunday as far as betting action goes but yeah I'm not sure which way to go on this game I think four is a pretty good number about three and a half was just a little too too light but four I think it's pretty good if they bet me over the four then that's fine I'll move up but right now I'm still a little heavy on the Seahawks plus the four so we'll see what they want to take me I have a feeling I'll probably wind up at four and a half at some point but I gotta say that's that's probably gonna be okay if I have the Seahawks at a decent number going for me and I could live with that that should be all right Chris we know you were probably you know talking to the NFL office about moving those games later oh yeah yeah it's coming into the south yeah sure I'd probably have it even later if they asked me but yeah but I'll live with this this is just fine yeah that's outstanding that is Chris Andrews again make sure you check out his book you can find on Amazon then one day 40 years of bookmaking in Nevada Chris thank you so much for hopping on here today good luck with everything over at the south point for this weekend I hope the bets break in your favor we appreciate your time and we'll talk to you again soon hopefully my pleasure guys like I said I always like talking to smart people and you guys certainly qualify so my pleasure certainly so good luck to you guys too this weekend hopefully we'll be on the same side how that's right that sounds great to me thank you so much that's that I want to be on covering the future one final thing gives out to Chris Andrews for swinging by forward today and breaking down the divisional round Ed that was my fun conversation I love hearing those those stories from Chris and I kind of want to go grab the book now because of that yeah you absolutely should it does a great read just one anecdote from the book there or it's not one there's a couple chapters on adventures and bad bookmaking okay so so we all so we all know about NFL teasers right you get to teach two games by six points so there's a bookmaker that uh wanted to do the same thing for hockey so he wanted to have hockey teasers and so he put out these he put out these teaser cards where you could move the hockey line six points and he's and he's phoned in his guy's like man these hockey teasers are the best thing ever well you just have to think about a little bit you know hockey games don't often get to you know plus six and old differential so they obviously got killed in that and and I read that and I was in a starbucks in extant pennsylvania and people were wondering like what could possibly be so funny that this guy is laughing about reading that book um but just just one of the many adventures in bad bookmaking that was kind of my favorite kind of applying football principles to the game of hockey and uh offering teaser cards well but the book is full of great stories like that um and some of them will will really make your back hurt I think that one made my my brain hurt like six yeah six it's just the sport would just apply the same same ideas to other sports it is a charitable donation we'll view it that way instead I think that's the right way to view it so again check that out then one day uh 40 years of bookmaking Nevada I found on amazon you can get it for kindle for less than 10 dollars so uh check it out there I always read my kindle while on the bike at the gym so uh definitely a good way to pass the time for sure Ed and I always preach searching for the best value and betting on games and look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at numberfire.com it's called oddsfire it's the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated us market compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on numberfire or at oddsfire.com gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER let's dive in now to our bets for this weekend's games Ed starting off with you which games you want to focus on for this weekend's slate yeah I mean I want to talk about Seattle at Green Bay uh I've talked about Green Bay all year uh and how the fact that I think they've been pretty overrated and I went back and looked at it they are 8-1 in one score games so the data suggests that uh there's a lot of randomness when it comes to one score games particularly than the NFL although it's not any different in college football uh even though you think it might be so um being 8-1 in one score games is a big part of why they got to 13-3 and got to buy uh that kind of record in close games is is not predictive of how they will do in the future um the offense has been mediocre when I look at adjusted success rate they're 17th in the NFL they're actually worse in passing uh 20th than they are in rushing in which they're 10th and you know I mean a lot of this comes down to the quarterback position uh earlier this season Ben Baldwin wrote about how you know Aaron Ryder is no longer elite and and it's and his accuracy is really going down I think that is indeed the case from from the games that I've seen I feel like he just doesn't set his feet like he should sometimes and just kind of flings the ball a little bit I think when he sets his feet and really gets it under him he can still sling it with the best of him but um you know it just really hasn't been consistent this season uh the Packers defense isn't graded either uh they're also 17th when I look at adjusted success rate and obviously I'm not too high on Seattle uh we've talked about you know their defense is probably going to be the worst unit on the field uh 26th in my adjusted success rate but they do have Russell Wilson and he's been fantastic this year uh no need to talk more about that there are some concerning injuries on the offensive line to their starters did not play last week they're both listed as questionable and I don't know if we can make any definitive statements now but still you know my numbers like Green Bay by about two points I think Seattle plus four is is something I like a lot I think the I think the way that the Packers cover is that Aaron Ryder's outdulls Russell Wilson that certainly can happen I just don't think it's probable yeah you alluded to the offensive line issues and those are the biggest reason I I kind of want to stay away from this game because Pete Carroll said Wednesday that he thought Duane Brown had a chance to play Pete Carroll tends to be fairly delusional uh I don't know that's the right that's the right word that's the word I would use for when it comes to player injuries last week he said Duane Brown was probably not going to play which means to me there is a 0.0 percent chance that was for last week's game this week he said he has a chance and to me that says point like you know five to ten percent that's probably on the low end but I've been burned by him with injury news so many times and then Mikey Potti the left guard is banged up he I would guess doesn't play Joey Hunt's their center probably going to go he played last week he was on the injured part all week too and then their left tackle their back of left tackle George Phant who is also a tight end believe um like they're a very weird team but they have four different guys who could potentially start on their offensive line who are at least not at full health because Brown had like a knee scope I think yeah I thought Phant played last week he did but he's hurt again he missed practice Wednesday he and Hunt are in a similar vein where I'm guessing the rest Wednesday was maintenance related um just because they're not at full health till I get them healthier so Hunt and Phant are going to play I am less certain on Duane Brown and we talked about this when the Vikings play the Packers the strength the Packers defense is their defensive line mostly because they're all Northwestern guys obviously um but like that's kind of the only area where they're good is their defensive line right that worries me but I also I can't have a lot of faith in the Packers either so it's hard for me to kind of get a real gauge in this which is why I was talking to Chris about I've I've got no idea how to look at this game it's wild like he doesn't really have much of an idea either I mean I feel the strongest about uh about Seattle in this game so yeah I think that makes sense and uh I if if Pete Carroll is being truthful to us and Duane Brown does play that make me feel a lot better about Seattle plus four so that's when I keep an eye on for sure also for my cover in the future I want to go back to the Titans shocker I know um the Mario to guys talking trash on Ryan Tannehill and I was considering the game under here at 46 and a half points because I expect both these seem to be pretty run heavy and that tends to lend itself to an under but I can also see a scenario in which the Ravens just kind of drop the hammer here and hit that number themselves so I don't want to root against Lamar Jackson kind of we're talking about Teddy before we're like some bets are not fun to root for I don't want to root against Lamar Jackson scoring points so we're going to ignore the the game total and talking about the Titans team total in 19 and a half points so I'm going to take the under on that and as mentioned heading into last week Ryan Tannehill had a pretty easy schedule after he took over from Mario to this year he had only 18% of his drop backs come against top 10 past defenses based on number fires metrics that was the fourth fewest among guys that at least ran a drop backs and he was just kind of okay against top 20 past defenses he was at 0.04 passing net expected points per drop back the league in that same split is about right there so he's roughly league average when he was facing a non terrible defense and against the Patriots last week Tannehill didn't do a whole lot had a couple of key third down conversions but also had a really bad pick and the Ravens defense I think is underrated by their full season metrics they ranked fourth in schedule adjusted past defense at number fire and that includes the time before the Marcus Peters trade before Jimmy Smith got healthy so I would say the Ravens defense right now is in the same tier as the Patriots and the 49ers and I think that's favorable for them against Tannehill in a tough spot for Tannehill for sure there's also some wind in the forecast right now 15 mile per hour winds that should help keep a lid on the passing game and the Titans showed last week they can score points and win with their rushing attack but I'm not sure they can get over 19 and a half points without at least some success through the air so I'm going to bet on this Ravens defense showing up once again and helping the Titans hit the under on 19 and a half points if you look at the straight up like numbers the implied total for the Ravens or for the Titans 18.75 so if we're getting them at 19 and a half with minus 110 on the under I'm okay taking that so I will go under 19 and a half on the Titans specifically Ed again because I don't want to root against Lamar Jackson so we're just going to avoid that all together yeah that sounds good I mean my numbers aren't as high on Baltimore's defense I mean I do like what they're doing in the secondary not as high on the front seven so we'll see how that match up shakes up with uh with uh you know I mean obviously you can't count on Derek Henry to just bust open a lot of plays either maybe you can at this point honestly he's he's it's weird I I don't know like I have doubted Derek Henry far too often in my life and I feel like I just need to give up like it's hurt me so many times in daily fantasy specifically like right against Derek Henry so right he's he's broken my will I think right well if he breaks through a couple more times he's gonna keep getting uh someone's gonna pay him yeah he's a free agent this year yeah so that's a fascinating decision too because like they are one of the few offenses that has like heavy heavy splits based on whether they're starting running back is on the field they're off and like right I I don't think you can ever really justify paying a running back a ton of money but I could see them doing it still so he'll be interesting yeah they have both him and Tano actually has free agents this year so it's gonna be a wild off season for Tennessee and I'm thinking it may uh it may be starting this weekend that is all we have for today here on covering the spread Ed what's going on for you this week over at the power rank and on the football analytics show um yeah you know had JJ Zacharyson on the football analytics show talked about that yesterday and then uh you know just plugging away with with football predictions at the site you can always sign up for my free email newsletter uh get a sample of my best predictions usually saved for paying members of the site uh check that out at thepowerrank.com and find and on twitter at the power rank as well I am at Jim Sonnis J I M S A N N E S you can follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big thank you to Chris Andrews for swinging by today and breaking down his thoughts on the divisional round follow him on twitter at Andrews sports thank you to Teddy Savransky at teddy underscore covers for talking about the national championship yesterday and of course a thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things for today and chopping up those clips for the at fan dual twitter account and you can find all these episodes on youtube uh with the fan dual youtube page as well thank you cow good luck to everyone with your bets for the divisional round and for the college football national championship I hope the bets break in your favor we can talk to you once again next week to get you said for the conference championships in the NFL this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network