 Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer of Mock capital checking in today is Tuesday September 5th, and it's around 7 o'clock New York time US markets are closed So tomorrow we're going to be getting more another round of economic data This is going to be for the SMP global PMI data. It's going to be just the final reading For the numbers we already got which were the preliminary numbers back around August 23rd for the final numbers We're looking for nothing to change 51 versus the prior 51 for services composite 50.4 versus 50.4 ISM services index obviously a more important reading Given that we haven't seen this number yet Again for this month, we're looking for 52.5 down from 52.7 There's no estimates for prices paid employment or new orders, but these are all very important numbers Last month prices paid came in at 56.8. If we just look at really quickly at this number You can see that we've been mostly trending lower with a little bit of an uptick So obviously if we get another number that ticks higher It wouldn't certainly be all that surprising given that, you know, we're expected to see inflation in August tick higher You can see that the services data basically just follows the CPI data So I think it's a move higher in the services ISM Prices paid index. I don't think would be all that surprising considering expectations are for CPI to rise on a year-over-year basis for the month of August But again, this is something to keep an eye on When we sort of look at where the equity markets are at this point the S&P 500 really didn't really do much of anything today and Most of the selling came within the last 20 minutes or so We were just really stuck around the 4500 level and if I just show you from a gamma perspective You know the big gamma was all concentrated at this 44 95 40 500 and when we go into tomorrow, it's not expected to be too much different We're looking, you know, the big gamma levels for tomorrow look like they're gonna be again around 4500 and then even going into Thursday so Again, you can see by Thursday you start getting a little bit more gamma here down at some lower levels And you have some more put gamma getting built and so this could act as a drag once we get past tomorrow But certainly I would watch tomorrow to see this 4500 level to see if the market can gyrate back towards that level throughout the day I think that might be a little bit challenging given that we had such a weak close Again, one of those scenarios where you know, we had a pretty much a back-and-forth session with a bunch of With really no decisive Moving we gapped lower to start the day. We immediately tried to fill the gap We sold off we came back and then we had this big big drop into the close Which ended up resulting in a 40 basis point decline. I mean for the bears I think it's fairly easy tomorrow, you know If they really want to take control all you have to do is just gap the index lower right from the start And you can really start getting momentum perhaps moving to the downside It's also important to note that the zero gamma level is around 4490 And so when you once you break below 4490 in the S&P's cash index, you know gamma is going to shift back to a negative regime That's going to increase volatility Market makers are likely to go along with the sellers and this could you know again Potentially accelerate a move lower with support at 4460 and then all the way back down to somewhere around this 4420 region Because again, we moved up so quickly that once the selling really starts if we were to break this 4490 level Which again granted we closed at 4498 may not be too hard if they can just gap the index lower That's that could easily start a move down Especially if you were to get a prices paid index that really came in much hotter than what last month was and potentially Signaling that that the August CPI print could be even hotter than what the current expectations are on the flip side From the bullish standpoint Again, the big gamma levels around 4500 and we can see that 4515 acted as a pretty firm Resistance level for the last couple of days And so I think the upside is much more limited in this case I think if they're you're bullish you want to see the index quickly overtake this 4506 level and then try to surpass this 4515 I think of failure 4515 probably keeps the index trapped around 4500 If you can surpass the 4515 region then obviously you start having room to move up towards 4535 or so But again given the composition of the the gamma levels given the composition of the technicals I Think it's going to be harder for the bulls to really get something going tomorrow given Again, unless we get some sort of meaningful gap above this high to start with The other thing that's worth pointing out It's when we look at the longer-term chart. Here's our bump-and-run pattern and you can see that we came down Broke the trend line came back up to it and now we closed below it again So this this is also something you're going to watch want to watch plus It's worth noting that the 10-day exponential moving average and the 50-day moving average are right around the same spot at This 4470 level so this is another area if we begin to sell off tomorrow that could offer support as well So again, this is just So this is just another region that could offer support if we were to begin to sell off Tomorrow on the open when we look at the NDX Again very similar situation. Here's your here's your 50-day moving average and your 10-day exponential moving average Right there around 15 to 40 The the NDX had a very similar trading day to that of the SMP 500 But was actually much stronger than that of the SMP 500 Again, you can see that we basically gapped lower We were able to fill the gap and then we had this sell off into the close And so again for the NDX it looks a little bit easier if you're bullish just because you don't have as much to overcome So clearly if you can take out these highs pretty early There's really not much to stop you from taking out this 15,600 region and then potentially working to fill this gap again at 15,750 But again a lot of this is going to be dependent upon you know where they open this market tomorrow because if they take this out early That sets up potentially higher prices. Meanwhile, if we go the way the SMP appears to be set up more if we gap this down and You start moving lower, you know your support level then comes at 15 435 or so and then You know again it starts getting a little bit more dicey because you get to 15 370 15,350 and then again, there's a straight line here where there's really no support in the way so From that standpoint as well The NDX might have an easier task if momentum starts to build to the upside But again, it's really going to depend on how this market can open tomorrow Which means you're going to be seeing a lot of influence in terms of how the foreign markets are trading When we look at the Dow, it's a very similar situation to what we've been in now for some time Here's your 10 day. Here's your 50 day. We actually closed below the 10 day today the close was 34,641 the 10 day exponential was 34,685 the 50 day was 34,746 So we close below the 50 day and the 10 day exponential moving average and that's pretty bearish in that in a sense and Really tomorrow again if we were to get a gap lower and gap below this 34,600 area Again, this was this has really been the big sticking point for the Dow It just can't seem to really meaningfully escape from it You can see it tried to at one point, but then we came right back through it now We can clearly see that there's a trend line here and you have to think that if we break this 34,600 region we then become at risk of breaking this 34,240 region Which would break the trend line and and probably signal much further declines to come from there Again the Dow just continues to not really look well It seems to look like the weakest out of the out of the three averages Just like the S&P had a big sell-off in the final 15 or 20 minutes So if you're bullish on the Dow, I think it's fairly easy again It's the same concept. We were just talking about here's actually a trend line. So you'd want to Probably what we'd want to see tomorrow is a gap above this trend line and that could set up a potential move higher but at the same time the weakness in the Dow just continues and You really have to watch for a break below 34,600 Particularly if you get a gap below that level, I think that would be a particularly bad omen for the market Overall and again, it's gonna depend a lot in terms of where the European markets are trading because the European markets for the most part have been fairly weak as well The German DAX again moved higher to start today and then it came down Again, the DAX has to take out this 15,800 region But again when we look at the when we look at the DAX You can see that it is also closing and trading below the 50-day and the 10-day exponential moving averages So again, not really the most bullish setup here when we look at the DAX it also looks like it's consolidating at this point in some sort of Descending triangle perhaps or maybe it's even part of a a broader larger diamond pattern But regardless of what it is you can see there just clearly this big move higher Then this big move down to the lower end and a big move up and so we have some sort of consolidation forming here and Really Where the DAX goes longer term is going to really depend I think on where the Asian markets mostly go and Again, if we look at the DAX For tomorrow, you're going to want to take out this level pretty quickly that sets up a bigger Rally, but again a move lower. I think as soon as you undercut this low of 15,700 You're looking at this giant gap down here at 15,635 that needs to be filled And again given that we have this what looks like a descending triangle at a minimum Forming that would be more of a bearish pattern and suggest we at least retest these lows down here at 15,493 when we look at the The footsie 100 again, this is another index really not doing much of anything Has really stalled out after a really big move over the last couple of months here We had this really big rally from October into February and since then we've just been making a series of lower highs It's tough to say that we're really making lower lows. We're certainly not making meaningfully lower lows And so this again looks to me like we're just trending slowly down For the footsie really to get any sort of momentum going again You need to clear this the 7,520 level which would set up a retest a 7650 level Likewise again, we're still facing the same scenario a break of 7,250 sets up a down a move down below 7,000 somewhere to around 6,890 so I think at this point the the footsie looks like it's incomplete in whatever it is it's trying to do Interestingly, I'm just noticing this is almost a trend line that goes across all these tops and across all these bottoms And so again, it just seems like we're consolidating at this point to Lower levels on the footsie. So again week start to Europe may spill over into a week start here in the US If you can get over some key resistance levels in Europe Maybe that results in a move higher in the US early on But overall these indexes look like they're pretty much stuck in the mud with maybe the Nasdaq looking the best positioned out of all them at this point and Probably the Dow looking the worst positioned out of all of them. So anyway, that's all I have for you Have a great rest of your day, and I'll see you soon. Bye