 Almost time for the bell, how many options will you sell? Fire up your platform, get ready to enter But first, let's get the mindset centered Let's trade it, have success, find what works for you Stats and probabilities is what we're about Time to dismiss greed and doubt Focus on the process, not the money Start the show, come on trade hackers Get ready to options, time to make bank Get locked and loaded, then be ready to plank Hey everyone, welcome to Power Hour Live Thursday, October 19th Little blood in the streets, my friends Jay Powell opened his mouth and let out a little blood in the streets S&Ps down 37, Nasdaq down 132 Russell down 25, Dow down 220 Russell the weakest Vicks up 8% Closing in on 21 Which is going to exceed the recent highs that we had back on October 4th Let's see, Vicks got to a high that day of 20.88 Currently at 20.84 So I'm gonna buy some longs here Zero DTE-wise, the only thing that I did was a DKS, hit my first profit target and then got stopped out on the rest of my profit. I actually was trying to get filled on a discretionary rick here after Jay Powell started speaking, we bounced, volatility started getting contracted. Right around here I was trying to get filled on a discretionary rick and then it just ran away from me. It probably would have hit 30% within 10 or 15 minutes And it's not then, definitely now But did not get filled, so did not post or take it So for Tronch 1, it's looking like the 90s and 75s, maybe 15 wide Yeah, I'll take a look at that Vicks hedge too I was looking at it earlier, it's up about 50% or 60% I may peel some of that off by the end of the day So the 90s, 75s Plus this, the 4 would be 75, not 70 I'm seeing 15 wide, but I'll give it another 30 seconds or so Let's get a little in between Alright, 90s, 75s, here we come Trying to get filled at 830 Filled at 830 on the 90s, 75s Alright, 15 wide for Tr1, here we go SPX is down 0.8%, we are down 0.95% from the open 0.8% from yesterday's close 0.95% from today's open I mean, that was like some FOMC press conference action, didn't really think we'd get that much action from J-PAL's little luncheon The man's got a gift though, the man's got a gift Alright, so I did just take off my November 3 with the calendar, it was getting close to the downside break even so just scratched out a small profit on that one We've got the November 10 that we put on yesterday It's not quite up 5%, but the price is kind of jumping around, I'm not sure exactly Where that thing's trading, I think we got in at 450 I'm not sure where we'd get filled on that exactly Where's your order on Nov 10, Moro? Like 5, 5-ish, 505-ish 505, yeah Alright, so the VIX hedge Yeah, it's up It's up about 50%, a little over 50% I think I'm going to hold that tomorrow I think we're getting down to those recent lows here, the 42-30 area in SPX I'm going to hold my VIX for now Oil was down, but it's climbing and volatility expanding again in there There is some fear in the marketplace right now, my friends No calendars, I don't have any calendars on Took off the rest of the TGIF this morning SPX getting a little bounce and back up towards the expected move for the day Yeah, that profit hump on that golden fly will start to build to the downside here I'll probably hold that one until Monday, let's see what's going on tomorrow Still a 15-point expected move for the rest of the day It makes sense, we've got 15 wide So after Powell, Goolsbee spoke then Barr, then Harker and Logan speak tonight after the market closes And tomorrow morning 30 minutes before the bell Harker is speaking Due to speak about the economic outlook at the Risk Management Association in Philadelphia There's also the federal budget balance between Friday and Tuesday Yup, 8.30 is what I got filled out So 5 bucks is what I'm looking for for Tronche 1 to reduce my stop Low to day 42.78 Trading at 42.85 What do you call your proprietary indicator, Mauro? The Thursday killer? Would you go 25 wide or something? Are you going $3 on each side for Tronche 1, Mauro? Oh, I thought you said you got filled at 4.95 on Tronche 1 Oh, got it, got it, got it, got it, got it I'm with ya, I'm picking up what you're putting down Has anyone heard of or more specifically done anything, understand DSPX The Dispersion Index It only started printing at the end of November Has anyone ever heard of that? Yeah, you can type that DSPX in your I don't know anything about it Measures the expected Well, here's the CBO So I had a call with CBOE today and a guy brought it up to me So I was talking to him about how we use VIX to have something better that for our zero DTE type trades The Dispersion Index measures the expected dispersion in the S&P 500 over the next 30 calendar days as calculated from the prices of the S&P 500 index options and the prices of single stock options of selected S&P 500 constituents using a modified version of the VIX methodology So I don't have any idea how we might use that yet I literally just had the call an hour ago This is the first I've even looked it up But I'm going to dig more into it talk to the option of mega guys to see if there's anything to it to potentially add as a filter to our little backtesting strategies I did, it was just kind of an introductory call kind of telling them what we do and just to start build a relationship have a guy in case we ever run into issues have kind of a contact there for stuff like Tevis, was it you who whenever SIBO had that data issue going on, was it you who had a massive slippage and they called TOS and they didn't do anything about it and they didn't do anything about it I mean you just ate the slippage, right? Is that correct? Because he said that because I was talking to him about that specific situation and he claimed that that they busted he said all the trade he said he thought they made everybody whole whatever that means I don't know the specifics of your trade exactly but I even mentioned there's actually somebody in our community who got smoked pretty good and they you used TOS, right? You called TD I mentioned that, I thought it was TOS I said you called TD and they basically said they weren't going to do anything, that it was a valid fill and so he was kind of surprised by that but again I didn't know any details I didn't really have any leg to stand on with that but he definitely said that for the reason I bring that up is because this isn't a guy that I can if somebody has a bad slip or bad fill this isn't a guy I can call and be like fix this, anything like that I mean you still have to go through your broker but he did say kind of what you just mentioned, Ken you scream loud enough you get loud enough then the broker's got to push on on CBO Eda to get stuff like that worked out but he's also sending me some I already told Elliot this, he was having problems at one point about a month ago with stops getting cancelled it sounds like they fixed that issue they have a new procedure they call drill through protection where I guess previously you know they if you have a stop and it's like at the same price level as a bunch of other stops and price kind of blows through those there was a chance that which I think was what Elliot was experiencing where they would end up just cancelling his stop and or you get huge slippage where like if the price, he was saying if the price was like $2 and there was no real price until like $8 it would just go to that next price and you get massive slippage or your stop would just get cancelled altogether if it was too far away but they've fixed that through a procedure they call the drill through protection where they would create orders essentially at the next 5 and 10 cent increments so if something like that happened again it should go to like the next order so your slippage shouldn't be as bad as something like that or your stop shouldn't be getting cancelled so things like that let me know if those kind of things happen he basically said you do have to work through your broker he can't look at specific accounts and figure anything out like that so it does have to go through your broker for something like that but yeah I saw your question tomorrow after the fact so I wasn't able to ask him about that but I can I can email him I've got a note about it Ronch1 trading down to $6.70 yeah he did say SPX is going to pin it $4282 today so that's good I'll keep him on the speed dial okay price close Ronch2 get some longs in place looks like $90.75 again Ronch2, $90.75 trying to get filled at $6.10 filled at $6.10 on the $90.75 same strikes for Ronch1 and $2 $365 is what I'm looking for for Ronch2 to reduce stop points above the low of day and now we're hitting new lows of day need a bounce we're like 2 points below below center let's save our bounce request for when we really need it VIX up over 9% approaching $21 down to $5.85 I'm looking for $5 on Ronch1 we can get back up around $82 that should suck some premium out yeah my margin got increased today and I took some more money out of my account last night I'm actually going to have to do my Ronch3 in the other account up to $42.80 Ronch1 down to under $5.50 $5.45 about $0.50 $0.50 more to come out to reduce stop $5.25 $5.15 hang out right here or a little bit higher to get down to $5 coming back down back up to $5.40 we'll get at least $4.97 couple minutes until Ronch3 $5.10 $5.05 I saw it reducing stop on Ronch1 buy some longs for Ronch3 looks like it might be the $90.70 like the $90.70 trying to get filled at $3.50 filled at $3.50 on the $90.70 Ronch2 trading around $5 I need $3.65 on Ronch2 to reduce stop anywhere between $75.90 we can just stay above the lows of day and below the expected move line for the day just this little area I don't think that's too much to ask SPX making new lows of day Ronch2 down to $4.60 need another buck another buck to come out where is she got stopped how is that possible $3.00 away $3.00 did you lower your stop to $3.00 $3.00 above current price and that was a very tiny move so that's I think the back test I had on $3.00 started at $6.00 and did reduce to $3.00 man that was a tiny move to for that to hit alright let's see Ronch2 getting close looking for $3.65 is that $3.70 jumped around quite a bit when it bounced right there $3.70 should be getting close around $3.85 still $3.75 kind of popping back up now as price comes down didn't quite get there hangs out right here a little higher there's $3.75 alright reducing stop on Tronch2 Tronch2 my stop is at $5.65 and I got in at $6.10 Tronch1 I got in at $8.30 and my stops at $8.00 and we're right back to where we're going to expire 25 minutes to go we can just speed up that maybe an early bell today can we get an early bell like I don't know right now let me call Vince see if you can make that happen hey Mike I see you're posting on the zoom chat if you would please post in the zero live chat channel and discord most of the time I don't I just happen to see that notification but let me answer your question but anything any follow up please post in the zero live chat so Mike said when you have time I like your strangle design to supplement zero DTE vertical spreads appropriate here we're directional opinion into the close since these structures maximize into expiration with defined risk yeah so I these are defined risk but once I once I buy the longs they're basically going to expire worthless so I'm just I'm just managing the shorts from that point on and and I use a stop so if it starts to move out of my out of my range so this is all Mike it's all I don't know if you have if you're part of if you have an option omega account yet but everything we're doing here is back test driven so looking at the you know specific entry time specific ways that we enter specific stops so we you know playing the probabilities it's been pretty successful over the last year Kelvin my trunch to stop is at 565 now I don't trail I don't trail anything I just when it's at 40% I move it down from three to two stays fixed same thing I've been doing them for the last few months couple months Mike did I did I answer your question wasn't sure exactly what your I'm not sure I was 100% clear on what you're asking yeah when you reduce a stop is based on whatever the current prices so $2 over the current price VIX was up close to 10% now it's only up 7 hit a high of 20.99 did not like the idea of going over 21 hopefully that stays that way for today Mike is that you alpha options yeah so you're in the day trading chat come down about one two three four five six in the zero live chat channel so I know it's kind of confusing day trading chat is what Chad uses for his live stream so we just we kind of keep them different because totally different strategies so we're anytime we're streaming live or zero DTE we're here yep no worries man no worries appreciate it just a lot just makes it easier on me to so I'm not jumping around in different channels so for these zero deep Mike so for these zero DTE strategies I'm not I'm not really I'm not using a hedge I'm simply position sizing you know based on my comfort level they are defined risk meaning you know we're buying the we're buying some cheap wings a for margin relief and you know capital efficiency and then also obviously you know crazy black swan type move the risk is defined with the with the wings but but otherwise that's that's kind of the the scope of it there's not not necessarily a a hedge here obviously we're using a stop loss which we know are not guaranteed but that's our main main exit criteria if if price starts to move out of our range SPX back down to forty two seventy six out of the money butterflies I mean these things are so there's just so little value in these options that'd be pretty difficult to do I would assume buy some ten cent butterflies I guess I don't think that's really gonna do much SPX new low of day trunch to just got stopped at five forty five and five fifty five so small profit for trunch to fifty fifty sixty cents for trunch to stop for trunch ones at eight bucks currently trading at six now we could use a little bounce trunch three has the seventy is the lowest strike so it's still in range stop on trunch three is at six fifty spreads currently trading at three thirty and just as I was talking about vex not not puncturing twenty one it did now I have twenty one oh eight forty three down forty seven the early indication for market on close imbalances the first one was two forty three to the buy side then it's switched over to one ninety five million to the sell side the final one will come out in four minutes from two forty three million buy side two forty three million buy side one ninety five million sell side stop on trunch ones at eight bucks spreads currently trading at six fifty twenty one it's a little bounce back above seventy five we get back around eighty I'd be riding into the bell but we'll see I'll tell you in about seven or eight minutes nice little bounce vex just wanted to test that see what it felt like above twenty one just test the waters didn't like it much needed to ease back under twenty one thirty cents trunch three trading under a buck right nice and centered just kind of calm down and go to sleep now time to go to sleep five twenty to the buy side is the final I'm back and forth the exhale low of forty two sixty nine point six nine already back up to forty two eighty five eight minutes to go trunch ones at a buck thirty five trunch threes eighty five cents greater Bianca out at eighty percent nice I'm just glad you're not yelling at us today you must not have done your yoga for the day the other day when you're yelling at everybody right above eighty so I think what I'm going to do is I'm going to get out of trunch one so I've got these in two separate accounts let's try to get fifty cents trunch one currently at eighty eighty cents trunch one at a buck let's open my fifty cent was going to get filled at five to the bell seventy cents sixty sixty five fifty five should be getting hit touching it it's flirting with my order there we go fifty cents for trunch one trunch threes at twenty cents got my order at ten cents should I get rid of it trunch three dead centered going in if I lose money on this trade I'm not going to be happy for ten cents still three minutes to go yeah I should have left my order at ten cents I'm going to put my order back in at ten cents will it fill sometimes it does ten cents so far two minutes to go so I got into trunch three at three fifty filled at ten cents on trunch three and out so trunch one thirty seven eighty so seventy eight hundred trunch two got in at six ten five five fifty sixteen so about nine sixty plus forty seven sixty seventy eight hundred so a little over thirteen thousand thirteen thousand five twenty minus the so call it about thirteen thousand profit for the power hour nice that helps that helps that helps good way to end the day on a Thursday my friends on a Thursday don't forget about that everyone hates Thursdays Thursday is my favorite day of the week alright so tomorrow for the live streams chat will be streaming live in the morning and then we will be back for power hour live same bat time same bat channel everyone have a good night take care