 Hello and welcome to the war economy and state podcast. This is a new podcast here from the Mises Institute I'm Ryan McMacon. I'm a senior editor with the Mises Institute and joining me today And who will be my regular co-host is? Zachary Yoast and I know Zachary from Mises University and from the Mises Institute He's done policy work on foreign policy in Washington and is recently a 2021 Marcellus policy fellow at the John Quincy Adams Society and so we'll just be getting here together For this podcast about every month to discuss geopolitical issues. So these involve war Foreign policy in general the State Department, but also things like immigration Free trade maybe even things like water and resource usage and the importance of the location of mountain ranges and anything that might really be Relevant to how states view their local environment and how they would seek to maximize power So we'll be discussing a lot about the state the nature of the state and how this relates to States view of themselves in relation to other states and their borders and the people in other states in their own state. So this is Not not really going to focus on domestic policy at all except as how it relates to geopolitical issues and So that's just to give you an idea of what this new podcast is all about and so Zach Thanks for joining me today. Thanks so much for having me on. I'm pretty excited I think we're gonna learn a lot and talk a lot about interesting things over our episodes Well, I thought we would just start out with a fairly easy topic that being NATO Which these days is in the news a lot because Sweden and Finland have said they want to join NATO and this has a real fun wrinkle in it because Turkey has announced it is Opposed to it just to set up the issue then We've got NATO the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. That's basically a A common defense league of sorts that's existed since 1949 but what a lot of people don't know about it is That it doesn't include all European countries or even all Western European countries There have long been parts of Europe that have declared themselves to be neutral and this includes Austria of course, Switzerland, but also Sweden and Finland and it includes some countries that you wouldn't expect to be part of what is often generally seen as a European group which specifically is Turkey and So this has been a source of some conflict over the years, but it hasn't really been anything critically problematic But now that Sweden and Finland in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have said they want to join NATO And Turkey has has said no We're going to veto that because members have a veto. It has to apparently be unanimous for approval of new members and Turkey's opposed and this this is very interesting. I did not see this coming at Zach so What tells a little bit about the demands Turkey's making I mean what what does this mean? Is this likely to make any real difference? Will Sweden and Finland really be kept out? Or is this just a negotiating tactic is does this spell trouble for the future of NATO? What do you think? Yeah, so I also was not expecting Turkey to object and ultimately I don't think they'll really hold things up in the end. I think it's just a tactic to basically get a bribe From potentially other NATO members, but also Finland and Sweden specifically Erdogans gripes are one both countries Have sanctioned Turkey Because of things related to the Syrian Civil War, I believe and also both countries Are sort of have people who are friendly to I believe it's called the pkk, which is this Kurdish political group that Turkey considers terrorists and also blames that coup that happened a few years ago on So if I'm not really sure what to expect Erdogan flat-out said like don't bother trying to come here to convince us to let you in but I suspect that's just a Negotiating tactic on the other hand it is kind of hard to imagine Sweden extra-diting Kurds to you know be tortured in a Turkish prison somewhere but Something I suspect will be worked out Eventually, but what exactly I'm not sure. Well another thing I saw suggested about what Turkey should maybe negotiate about is full membership in the EU Oh, yeah, because if you've been around a while you might remember that I don't know maybe was 10 years ago That Turkey was really making and putting on a press to get Into the EU as a full member and I think back then even the Pope came out against it And a lot of these Europeans are like look Turkey is not really a European Country the EU is really sort of a Christian civilization thing some people were just outright saying that and Turkey was like fine Whatever you don't want to you don't want us in EU. Well, we don't like you either And so that was a source of of some problems and now think about adding insult to injury, right? You got Turkey, which is a pretty big important country and You've got at the same time EU is now saying oh, we should get you we should fast-track Ukrainian Membership in the EU and you create is the backwater of backwaters, right? It has a very contrary to what the Russians in the American Regimes think I do not think Ukraine holds the key to geopolitical power in the world But it's what's not nothing but this idea that this really dirt poor country that has a GDP half the size of Russians GDP per capita Should be fast-tracked into the EU is quite remarkable from I think the standpoint of Turkey if you're sitting there Looking at this given the importance of a country of a city like Istanbul to Europe overall So again just another big insult to the Turks and I mean This talk of fast-tracking Moldova as well, which is I think the poorest state it in Backwater of a backwater of a backwater. I mean, yeah, they suddenly ran. Well, yeah Joseph Solis Mullen who writes articles for Mises.org that's MISES.org by the way If you're listening would like to get more content similar to what you're hearing right now But Joseph who writes a lot of foreign policy We were joking around and saying that's it won't be long before we start to see articles in the Washington Post about How important it is to protect the democracy in Moldova and in Transnistria and how these places are key partners in Western defense. I mean suddenly these places that nobody ever heard of six months ago are Absolutely central to the discussion in Washington. And so I think Turkey looks at that and And they they think what what a joke, right? I mean really and I was as I mentioned earlier I just to make sure I wasn't throwing out bad dates I went back and checked when Turkey joined NATO and it was way back in 1952 what they first initial I think 12 members joining in 1949 and then you had some members joined soon after that in the early 50s And Turkey was among those and that was really quite a coup I would think for for NATO right because really if you get Turkey in there you're really constraining the Soviets in Their power in terms of the Eastern Mediterranean because like you know your your clothes you can close off the Dardanelles and There's not this free travel between the Black Sea and The Aegean Sea which I guess if the Russians had free movement there that would be a pretty big deal, but Turkey's been a problem all along right it was caught after the Cuban Missile Crisis It that it turns out a big motivation for the Soviets in that was because the Americans were keeping nukes in Turkey which was just too close to the Soviets really back then bordered the Soviet Union directly in the Caucasus and So it's just been a constant headache Yeah, I mean Turkey I can't even remember how many coups it's had much more than any other European state in the past hundred years which I mean the U.S. Yeah, it had missiles in Turkey that were kind of part of the deal for the Cuban Missile Crisis But even after that we still to this day we have tactical nuclear weapons stationed at a base in Turkey And people have questioned the wisdom of that especially when there was a coup I think that was in 2016 what an attempted coup that one failed, but Yeah, it definitely has a strategic position especially in regards to then the Soviet Union and now Russia I mean it has closed the Dardanelles to any To the the inflow of any warships to the Black Sea so I mean it and it also has an advanced drone program which it's been selling to Ukraine and Turkish drones also played a large role in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan back in 2020. I think it was so they They have one of the most substantial Non-U.S. military's in NATO, so they're not they're not nothing Well, yeah, some smart person. I was ready and once said that if Turkey had oil It would be basically a world power that I mean given its Given its physical position the size of its military Its neighbors if it was just if it just had an easy source of cash It would like the Saudis right it would be it would be this continent straddling world power I right between Asia and Europe and it would be a big important thing that would essentially control the eastern Mediterranean But as it is they've never really embraced markets. They've never really understood that whole Western economic thing similar to the Russians in many ways who have had many chances to get rich and squander it each time And they're just they're just still economically a backwater But how would you describe? You know how when you you witness like a Codependent couple or sort of like a borderline abusive relationship or people who just treat each other badly But claim to love each other or something like that. They say they have a complex relationship, right? I think a little bit of the relationship between the Russians and the Turks as a complex Relationship it because it seems that no matter what happens Moscow's always making overtures to Ankara and they're they're having negotiations and I guess Turkey's now attempting to somehow facilitate peace talks, even though that's not going well between the Russians and the Ukrainians I mean what what aspects of is the reason to believe that Turkey could really be pulled further away From NATO somehow. I mean I couldn't expect that the Turks would give up that position no matter what but maybe they they can be really good at at playing both sides and getting constant concessions from both the Russians and From NATO countries, I don't know. What do you think of that? That seems definitely in the realm of possibility, especially in the past few years Turkey has been more assertive It's all run together now, so I can't remember if it's in 2020 or 2021 there was a kerfuffle in the eastern Mediterranean over disputed basically mineral and gas and oil rights out at sea and the Russians had some kind of like oil exploratory vessel and I think the French Navy was actually deployed kind of to be like Get out of here Can't remember if it was in Cyprus's territorial waters or I think it was a combination of Greek and Israel and Cypriot claims and things like that and There's just there has been some writing over the past few years that Turkey's becoming more assertive and that Erdogan has his own kind of Civilizational vision for Turkey. I should have looked it up beforehand. I'm curious what Turkey's Birth rate is if they're above replacement rate Which could be quite a long-term advantage for them compared to the rest of Europe but like Erdogan Declared that the Hagia Sophia was no longer going to be a Museum it was going to be a mosque again Just this kind of idea of we're Turkey. We have this Turkish identity and We're going to be more assertive. So as the West There's like places like France and Germany have come under fire for trying to be too conciliatory towards Russia before attacking Macron for Apparently suggesting to Zelensky that Ukraine just needs to make some territorial concessions to the Russians so the war can end and Putin won't lose face and all these people were angry like okay Yeah, what parts of France are we going to give to Russia and things like that? So it's a completely different attitude from what Eastern European countries think about the situation So it's very possible that you know, France and Germany will be willing to make deals with Turkey that Eastern European countries might not like and That Western European countries will be more willing to tolerate Turkey Making deals with Russia as well. I would say Yeah, because there's not there's not I imagine There's no method certainly nothing that's been tried to expel NATO members And yeah, not not that I know of Yeah, I don't think anyone's actually tried to take kick Turkey or anyone else out not that not that comes to mind But then just the very existence in nature of Turkey I think calls into question just the whole structure of NATO and how it's grown too large and too diverse This has been a discussion right among Rothbard and Lou Rockwell has talked a little bit about it at Mises.org is the issue of these collective security Organizations right and you can see the benefit of a collective security organization obviously right the US began back in the 1770s is essentially a collective defense organization against the British and they tacked a customs union on top of that but really these are supposed to be sovereign countries working together for defense and They didn't invent that idea and So why not have that among Western European countries where they're they're right next to each other. They have very similar views Maybe even in some cases you could see any sort of group of countries that had maybe all in a language in common Should perhaps join together or at least similar languages and so on but when you start to get really big as The case with NATO right where you've got so now you've got countries from Latvia to For to California Right, you got the West the Western side of North America's in the same defense union as the far Eastern reaches of Eastern Europe in some cases the Russian border that That that seems a little harder to manage so you've got all these countries with very different geopolitical concerns and The the Turkish situation just makes you wonder and I think Papua canon always just ask these rhetorical questions, right? Will Americans how many Americans will be required to die for Finland if Finland joins NATO and gets into some sort of Conflict with Russia, but of course one good question has long been how many Americans will be asked to die for Turkey If Turkey gets into some sort of conflict and it doesn't have to be just Russia by the way Article 5 could apply to any country that attacks a NATO country and I believe that article 5 The only time it's actually been formally invoked was after 9 11 Was when the US the US decided to invoke and say hey, we've been attacked so now all of our NATO members have to help Yes, that's correct and on our article 5. I have read some takes that That it could be Understood in a different way If Turkey actually causes too much trouble Well, it tells us real quick for the people listening at home. Well, what article 5 says. Oh, yeah So article 5 is generally people just think article 5. It's a collective Collective defense an attack on one member is an attack on all members of the alliance And people usually think oh automatically Every NATO member has to declare war on whoever attacked whoever But there is wiggle room there and I recently looked it up because of Because of the talk of further NATO expansion There is the legal argument that the Being a member of NATO Signatory of the NATO Treaty to just not give the president the unilateral authority to declare war that The legislator didn't delegate its power to the president In regards because we joined NATO that technically That still have to be a declaration of war from congress For the us to enter into war. I mean I doubt that would even happen if article 5 was invoked But regarding turkey there's just there's talk that That could people might be a little more like oh, you know uh, we have the wiggle room to aid turkey in Whatever way we see fit as is within our constitutional processes um, so Uh, it's possible that turkey could be well. I mean in the long run that could be good for the u.s No matter how it's how that kind of change in the norm could be introduced but um uh Short of kicking turkey out. I would say that's The most that might be done To punish them in going forward well You bring up the issue of offering aid right without actually entering a war And that of course brings us to the ukraine situation Uh, which raises an important issue in terms of is the united states really required As a part of nato anymore, right? So of course nato was found as an anti-soviet organization, right and and then You had the warsaw pact spring up And so this idea was you had these two common defense blocks that we're going to fight each other if necessary Basically guaranteeing world war three if one warsaw pack country got into a conflict with one nato country and this of course was always the problem that Uh people like lou rockwell bring up in terms of these big common defense organizations You could have one country that's out there that has pretty different territorial realities and ideal ideologies and motivations And they could go out and actually Try and cultivate conflict With another country and then they end up dragging all these other con countries and if if those If those if that first country that that court's conflict ends up doing that with another major power Now you've got world war three on your hands between this huge nato block and then this other country That really only has a beef with country a That that tried to do the conflict and so you can see now why people then back to what you were just saying That people are now trying to think of well, maybe there's maybe there's a way that Article five doesn't require actually world war three by everybody That maybe we just pledge our support and we try and downplay the conflict somehow And that brings us to the ukraine situation, right? You're looking at ukraine And you're seeing russia's success there now I do think russia's doing better than the propaganda says which is that russia's Decimated and they'll they'll soon be completely out of it and they'll have to retreat with their tail between their legs Uh, I I have a hard time believing that russia's ever giving up mario poll at this point that I think that's permanently russian that The sea of azov is russian territory now that uh the water supply for Crimea which was key in A key part of seizing southern ukraine that's going to be seen as non-negotiable So I don't think russia's giving that stuff up and I think they'll be able to hold on to it Also, especially if they go through with these votes with the locals to decide whether they're going to join russia or not, but at the same time It's clear that this idea that we were supposed to believe early on that russia was going to come in and just occupy the whole country And then they were going to roll on to budapest and on to berlin from there and people were saying that right They were trying to get us to believe not only it was the domino theory discredited in the days of the soviets But they were trying to get us to believe a new version of it where the russians were going to roll through central europe Any day now? Well, that's obviously not going to happen They obviously have no ability to do that and russia's essentially been fought really quite well by just shipping arms to the ukranians And this has clearly been a problem for them Um enough to drive them completely out of ukraine perhaps not but they're clearly not a threat to the core of nato Or central europe or anything like that So the question is If russia was so easy to really counter by just shipping weapons And since it's so abundantly clear that russia does not have any ability to attack any country that's not right on its frontier Why is the united states need to be in this alliance to somehow counter russia? You've got countries like france nuclear armed by the way uk nuclear armed You've got germany which could become a nuclear country in a matter of weeks Uh a huge economy you take any two of these large european countries and you've got a whole you've got an economy That rivals that or exceeds that of russia and then if you take Half of nato and throw it together you've got a a economic alliance far far larger than russia So russia's this small player in terms of its gdp per capita in terms of its resources in terms of its military capability Just compared to russia you don't need the us in there So there are people out there saying to span nato and all that that's not necessary, right? Just just get the us out of nato. I mean What what do you what is the real justification? I mean, obviously we get why the us wants why the us regime wants to be a nato, but from a military standpoint I mean can't can't europe really They've got lots of wealth and resources is is america really necessary to this equation Looking at this perceived need to counter russia at every turn Right so back Back back in the good old days Of the of the cold war This the saying was that nato's purpose is to keep the americans in Keep the soviets out and to keep the germans down So for sure the us elites want to stay in nato and because they get to have a lot of say on Of what what happens in western europe and also they can drag along european countries into whatever Misadventure usually in the middle east right now that we get ourselves into Part of the issue is that the european countries have been free riding On the us for so long In march kind of right i can't remember if it was Said right before the invasion or right when the invasion started Kind of like the head of the german military the bundswehr or however it said Said basically the the german army could not actually contribute to any nato combat operations it's and The the german government is like we're going to double our military spending We're going to get everything up to shape and in like 10 years They'll be up to snuff basically um So part of the issue is the europeans are so used to free riding on the us That to some degree They're not really prepared to take care of themselves not that i think that's america's problem And we see that there is some Good developments, uh, I think it happened right before the invasion or right right around when it started The polish government announced that they were Increasing military spending and that they were going to double the size of their military And from my perspective that makes perfect sense for a country with poland's history They're kind of terrible geographic position And you know right next to belarus, which is basically to some extent a russian puppet state Um, so it'd be nice if european countries took steps like that more, but they're not going to As long as the u.s. Is there to take care of them and we can see this in the The great disparity in the flow of military aid to ukraine when this 40 billion dollar bill Aid package gets the pass probably this week. Well when we're recording this Uh, us military aid, I believe will be about 57 billion dollars and the war started like three months ago I think that the military aid europe has sent to ukraine is a little over a billion dollars We don't live next to ukraine You know russia is not next door to us. It's next door to you poland. It's next door to you germany Why are we? Dumping all this money in. Um, so I think it's The us being in nato is a horrible deal For the us it's a great deal for us elites who get to you know pester and boss Badger europeans around into doing whatever we want. Well us elites want, but it's a horrible deal for uh american people who are Paying all this money in taxes that is subsidizing wealthy european states To no benefit to the american national interest our security is not improved Because we're already so secure Which I think is a key point the united states Is dominates the western hemisphere. There's no rival power in the western hemisphere And to the east we have the atlantic ocean To the west we have the pacific ocean And I think people I don't know if it's from video games or movies or what but people Have forgotten That it's it's a huge undertaking to cross large bodies of water just crossing the english channel for d-day was A massive huge undertaking if china were to try to attack taiwan. It's about 90 miles away It would be one of the largest undertakings Logistically in human history It's not like russia or china which have no distance power projection capabilities can just sail across the pacific and Attack We're so safe and secure nato is a bad deal for us and it'd be great if we could leave and maybe In 20 or 30 years we can get there when all of the people who think the cold war is still going on have retired, I guess but Yeah, it's a rotten deal Well, I look forward to the situation improving when i'm 78 years old. It's all it'll be great Well, we'll go ahead and wrap up with that for this episode of war economy and state Thank you. Zachary for joining me this time and we will be back in a few weeks for another episode We'll see you next time