 If the bulls can reclaim 274 on the Q's, right? If we can get a 274 on the Q's, then this whole level here, I think, would be imminent. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxistrader.com, weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a wonderful weekend. Hope everybody is staying safe. Hope everybody is being loved and, again, stay healthy and life kind of works out with a positive attitude. So let's talk about the market. So the indexes this week, most indexes, the Dow, the S&P, finished off the week, four consecutive weeks now of down with side bias, the NASDAQ, the Q's, they closed up 1%. I think a lot of people, based on Friday's action, got very, very excited. And, you know, again, I think they have a right to be. The track record for the market for the last two and a half years was, every single time the market looked like it was about to collapse, bulls found their ground, they kept it moving, they reclaimed major levels and moved forward. So I get the idea that people are very, very excited and you hear a lot of people turn around, well, that was the bottom. Again, we don't know, we can only speculate that the bottom is always obvious after the fact. And we've been seeing nonstop buying for two and a half years. We've been seeing bears pulling out their hair. So at any single time, there's any type of sell-off in the market that doesn't last more than three days, all of a sudden we're going back to lows. Again, for me, I stopped figuring this out long time ago. I just stopped doing so. Ever since the March lows, I've been really trying to pick it day by day. Again, have a very concrete opinion on the bias all week this week. I was sell bias and obviously the action for the most part of the week was dominated on the sell side at one point a day or another. But again, like I've said in every single video, it's very, very quick, very, very easy to get caught in a bias, paint yourself in a corner and really get run over. And the dynamics of the market change very, very quickly. For a couple of months now, we've been seeing really good aggressive decline levels in a lot of COVID cases, especially in the big cities, New York, right? New York was doing four to 5,000 people, new cases as of like two, three months ago. We got down to like, well, three, 400 a day. This past week, we spiked about to about 1,000. New Jersey, where I live, we were doing four to 5,000 new cases a day for a very, very long time. As of last week, they did spike, but the average day was like three to 400. So I think the market also got very comfortable with the idea that, okay, we know that there is going to be a second wave again. You can make an argument that this is still the same wave, but at least we're getting acclimated to living in this whole COVID world. And what we saw in the last week or so, we had spikes in major cities. We saw spikes in Europe. And that started giving kind of the concern that, you know what, maybe now it's time to kind of buckle down. Let's not get caught off guard this time. Let's make precautions. Maybe start getting a little safer before it comes really, really aggressively. And that's the way we kind of want to do it. And the market kind of got nervous this week and you started seeing the little bit of a sell-off. And then come Friday, we had this really, really big rally. What I liked about the rally on Friday, the Bulls had every chance to roll over. And if you guys remember Thursday's video, we rallied very strong. We were up like 300 points or so. We got rejected off the five-day moving average and completely reversed. So the Bulls had the opportunity to kind of lay down and die. It was Friday, a lot of people. And again, I want to send a shout out to all our Jewish friends that are observing Yom Kippur. It starts tonight at sundown and it goes all the way till tomorrow night. I have an easy fast, first and foremost. I myself, I'm a bad guy. I've lost my Jewish card a long time ago. I got married in a Roman Catholic church 20 years ago. So, bad guy. But anyway, I think we're going to see, come tomorrow, you're going to see a lot less volume, okay? Just because so many people are going to be off tomorrow. But what I like what the Bulls did was not only reclaim the five-day moving average, it reclaimed the 10-day as well. Now again, when I looked at charts, I started charting very lightly. My routine is after the close on Fridays, as I'm drinking my coffee, whatever the case might be, I'm still in work mode. So I started going lightly through charts and I joked around and I tweeted this out. I go, I've made my watch list for Monday. I narrowed it down to like 450 stocks. I was joking around, but that's kind of where we were. The fact that we did reclaim major levels was kind of a big deal. But again, and I want to really reiterate this very, very aggressively. So everybody understands we're not head of the woods, guys. I'm super, again, if you charting this weekend, you should, you're going to see ridiculous amounts of setups from beta to non-beta, like so many. But the problem is again, macro levels again need to be really taken down. And again, we did a great job, reclaimed the five, reclaimed the 10. Everybody see this whole level here? If the Bulls can reclaim 274 on the Qs, if we can get a 274 on the Qs, then this whole level here, I think will be imminent. So I think Monday's session is going to be rather important. The problem is again, you're going to see a lighter volume session just because so many people are going to be observing young reports. It's very, very important not to get too kind of bias into bull or bear debate come Monday night. I think we'll get a true sense of the market come Tuesday, Wednesday. We're either, again, I believe we're either going to get rejected off this level here and roll back down. Or again, we have to, if the Bulls want to rally, they have to at least at the minimum reclaim 274 on the Qs. And if we can reclaim 278 throughout the week, then yes, we have a legitimate shot. You can make a strong bull case that we're going to go back to all-time highs. If you look at the S&P, right? Look at the SPX. Again, we know the big number, right? The big number here to break this whole downward cycle is going to be this 34, 25, 34, 30 area. We get that, right? That's got rejected there four times. But again, at least it was nice to see that the Bulls at least reclaim the five-day moving average. And now we're going to run into a next kind of line in the sand, do or die scenario, somewhere around this 33 and a quarter area. So again, are we out of the woods? Absolutely not. You can see here, we're still in a dead downtrend. Until we start reclaiming big macro levels, again, assume we are. So I'm still in the camp that I believe that the upside, unless there's some really, really big levels, the upside needs to be kind of traded with kid gloves. You got to treat this very gently. I think there's better value to the upside on cash flow. And again, the word cash flow could be very subjective. If you're trading a $30 stock, maybe cash flow is 50 cents. If you're trading a beta, maybe the cash flow was $2, $3, right? But I don't think unless we start really confirming these levels, you're not going to get a hundred point move in Amazon. Again, we already had that hundred point move in Amazon just because, for example, Amazon reclaim certain levels, right? Reclaim these levels here and start moving back. But again, you can see how it's mirror imaging the S&P 500, the Qs. So it's very, very important again to understand that, again, at any time they could gap up, get stuck and roll over. So again, just understand your levels. We always talk about not bull, not bear, just understand levels. Levels are going to be your guide. You don't need to ask anybody's opinion whether they like it or they don't like it. If you have eyeballs and you have common sense and you could read a chart, it's most very basic thing that your eyeballs probably won't let you down. So if you see the market get rejected, for example, on Amazon at $31.88, you know that supply, right? If it starts rolling over, you know that's a bad sign. If it closes over $31.90, you know it's very, very bullish. So again, you don't need to ask 28 people what they think about Amazon, okay? It's all about reclaiming levels or getting rejected levels. So it's going to be very, very important. Here's kind of what I liked about this week. I had a really crappy trade on Tesla on Monday. That was the whole kind of day before the battery day. And then throughout the week, I did okay. Especially towards the end of the week, some really, really good value. And I think that the market has taught us that, again, number one, if you're a brand new trader, you can't fall in love with these stocks. Again, I don't think anybody on the planet loves Tesla more than me, but I don't love it to the point of, I'm gonna stand and defend their fundamentals. When it goes up, it's great. When it goes down, it's great, okay? So it's very, very important to understand that. The one thing that I didn't like about this week, I didn't like the liquidity. Monday through Wednesday, I didn't like the liquidity. I thought, especially on the beta side, I thought a lot of names were really spreading, okay? At one point, I was watching Amazon. It was trading like $5 spread. Netflix now has been really, like they have to fix Netflix. Something is wrong with Netflix. For the last year, Netflix has been trading, but it's a good trader, right? You can still get from point A to point B. But Netflix has been trading like a dollar spread at some point, hundreds share lots on all sides. So the liquidity this week wasn't great. Obviously Tesla's phenomenal liquidity, Apple's phenomenal liquidity, Facebook as well, but a lot of names were very, very light. So I'd like to see the liquidity get better. And maybe again, it's not there just because we're in this downward channel right now. And again, when you have a downward move in the market, so you're going to have less participants because again, the majority of the public is not a trader, right? They're investors. So if you're an investor and you're cautious and you're watching the market go down for four consecutive weeks, you're going to be less active than the active trader on every single basis. So I get that part. So hopefully if we could start reclaiming some bigger macro levels, you're going to have natural liquidity coming back into the markets. And I think if we can close, especially on the queues, if we can close on Monday, above the 274 level, you can see this whole channel here that started all the way back on September 17th. That's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven days, right? Tomorrow will be dates. So we're talking about almost two weeks. If we could clear out this two week distribution then I think we're going to go higher. So let's talk about Friday's session. And so I started the day with very, very specific notes, right? And we talk about this on the video. And I said, look, be very, very patient today. The value today is not obvious because remember we are in a downward cycle. A lot of names have been beaten up. A lot of names are in downtrends. A lot of names are way below supply. So any moves to the upside for the general part of the week was stuff, right? You could still get the trades. And we've been talking about individual pivots for the whole week that we did take advantage to the upside but there was short lift. So we wanted to make sure that and say, look, be patient, still downside bias but we'll take advantage of upside channels for cash flow only. Again, you can't predict that we're gonna completely reclaim the five, 10 day moving average and say, you know what, forget about the cash flow. Let's start looking for $12 moves. Again, it's much easier said and done after the fact but when you are faced with a certain day and a certain reality, you have to use common sense. So the day actually turned out to be very, very aggressive. Again, you can't plan on a five run home run. If you're the greatest home run hitter of all time, not named Barry Bonds, let's just say you're a Babe Ruth, right? Babe, as he was drinking beer, eating his hot dog right before he's going to the plate. He can't imagine that every single time he's gonna swing it, he hits it out. Maybe that's the objective but again, you can't go into the market and say, you know what, the market looks like crap now but you know what, I don't care what happens. I know for a fact the market's gonna stretch. It doesn't work that way. You're always in the middle of an aggressive day after the fact and again, you have to kind of adjust on the fly. So the day actually turned out to be pretty good. Beyond continues to be a really big, and again, here's, if you look at everything I said, it was literally for cash flow, maybe a dollar, maybe two dollars, use break even on your stuff. But again, nobody's gonna turn around and say, you know what, Beyond's gonna go up 10. Amazon's gonna go up 100 to you. Again, we're not in that channel yet but again, that's exactly what it turned into. So let's talk about the pivots from Friday. 151 needs to build for cash flow. Again, I thought maybe a dollar, maybe two dollars. So here was Beyond, this whole channel right here. So here was, oops, excuse me, here was Beyond. This whole channel here at 51 and it went nuts. It closed right at the high of the day at 156. I still like Beyond if you look at the daily chart and if we do continue to rally, is there a shot we get back to this 161 supply? Absolutely, so I'll definitely be watching Beyond for Monday. I traded Tesla, I thought pretty well, I said 400 is gonna be a tricky area. The previous day had a really aggressive pivot from that 385 into the 400 number. I said 400 is gonna be kind of a tricky area. There's always a possibility and this is kind of a general note for a lot of really big momentum names. You're going to always have the greatest amount of liquidity at whole numbers, okay. Retail is probably gonna be buying at whole numbers. Retail is probably going to be selling at whole numbers. And funds are positioning. What funds are gonna turn around and say, if Fidelity turns around and say, look, I wanna buy two million shares of Tesla, they're not gonna buy it at $398.28, they're either gonna buy it at $399, they're gonna buy it at 400. So you're always faced with a scenario that you're going to have a lot of liquidity, but you're always faced with a scenario that if you're going long, there's a very good chance there's going to be a reload seller there. And the last thing you wanna do is fight with a reload seller because you don't know how much inventory he or she has. And that's why you have to really be conscious because they could pull very quickly. So I said, look, there's always a possibility a reload seller at that spot. If there is, it's gonna get rejected really quickly. It needs to rebuild target 407. And luckily for us, there was just no reload seller there. It just went straight to that. The first push was to like 404, right? So here's the channel right here. Let me show you the channel here. So here's where I was talking about the 407 supply, right? So yesterday's high, the previous day's high was that 400. Here was supply and went right to supply at 409. I thought it was gonna get the 407, went to 409. So Tesla was good. I still like Tesla. It just needs to take out some more at levels. The video was really, really good towards the end of the day. We actually had a smaller pivot before this 510 area. So we'll discuss that in a second. Amazon 37 needs to build. Here was Amazon, right? Here was Amazon, took out the 3070, right? We talked about that level yesterday, right? Here's the whole 3070 level, took out 37, went to the 3100. Again, Amazon still looks good for Friday. Square 156 rejected needs to build 159 macro. And again, this is the greatest part about technical analysis, right? So it takes out the 156 and look where it stops at the day, right? It stops at 15898. And if you look at the daily chart, right? Again, you don't need to be the greatest technician in the world. You know where the pivot is, right? You know where the pivot is. So again, nice move on square. And again, if this thing starts building the 159, 160 level, you know, you could get a big move here. We saw a lot of 160, 165, 170 call buying for this week. So definitely keep an eye on that. I was watching initially zoom green to red short. Okay. The previous day, I caught a nice short on zoom. But now with the COVID cases spiking, we started seeing a lot of these COVID names really, really waking up. So you'll see in a second, we put pivots in Peloton and zoom. So they started really, really getting aggressively. Obviously this thing got nowhere near green to red. Ride aid got hit pretty hard. Ride aid, 1080 if it builds below can flush. Here was ride aid, right? So here was ride aid. Here was the 1080, right? Here was the 1080 and it flushed all the way down to 968. Congratulations for all you guys who caught ride aid. Draft kings never got, I still like this level. 5375, 5375, 54 needs to build. I still like this level. If it can wake up at some point throughout the week, it's a nice level here. As you can see here, it traded to 53, 59. I still like this 5375, 54 level. If it starts building, maybe it goes to 56. So that area is still valid going forward. And again, take on the way up, right? On Tesla, nice spike. Actually went to 56, but nice spike there. Ride aid, here comes 10 support. Take on the way down. And then we started seeing again, like we talked about a few minutes ago, these COVID plays, right? They started waking up. Peloton, 94 needs to build. Peloton exploded, right? Absolutely exploded. So here was the 94 level, right? Here's the 94 level and just went absolutely nuts. Went all the way to 98, 48. That one, absolute bananas. Zoom went nuts, 488, 54, 89 needs to build, right? And that's the whole point of pivots, guys. We had an initial pivot to the downside. That never played out, so we go back to the side. Again, there is no bias. That's the whole point of trading pivots. I don't care which ways they confirm. As long as they confirm, and as long as we have measure potential that we can identify with supply, then that's the direction we'll be trading. Again, for falling in love with these stocks is gonna be incredibly challenging to get rid of emotional baggage. And again, for every trader, we all know the greatest failure is because of emotion. So it's very, very important to kind of concentrate on the setup in an unbiased matter than actually the stock itself. So here is the three, here is the 488 level, right? 488, 489, and exploded, right? Exploded to 498. I like this whole channel here coming up here, folks. I like this whole channel that's four days into making. If it could start getting above this whole channel here, I think it will go higher. So I wanna keep an eye obviously on Zoom going on this week, 491 on deck. Netflix obviously never got to the 466 level. Amazon touched 3,000, never built below. Obviously, you wanna write back up. So Peloton highs. Dock you, again, these, again, it's a pretty, as you can see, there's a lot of stuff going on on Friday. Again, the stay at home plays, the COVID plays, Dock you, 210, 212 big areas. Again, COVID names are going nuts. Here was Dock you, right? So it took out the 210, right? Took out the 210, took out the 212, traded the 213. I still like it. I think if we can reclaim this whole channel here, I think it goes higher. And if you look at the macro case, if it just closes above this candle here, you could start looking at really bigger moves. Again, we started seeing October 230 calls pretty regularly throughout the week. So another name to watch in case, again, the COVID spikes. So here was the really big move. So if you guys remember, we talked about 510 was a big number and it was, but it was a sneaky pivot of 503 on the video. Big spot rejected several times, needs to reclaim and build. Again, not every channel is the quote unquote breakout. There are, when you hear me talk about sneaky pivots, this is what we're talking about. A sneaky channel that nobody knows is there, but there's an algorithm there that is tied into an arbitrary, into a very, very specific area that there's a very high probability that the volume will come in there. So 503 big spot needs to build. Again, remember, keep in mind, 503 and 510 macro, right? 510 macro, like I said, initial supply is 506, right? Initial supply is 510 weeklies coming in, right? So these are all the big numbers, kind of the steps. 503 went to 506, reclaimed 506, 510 weekly buyers coming in. It reclaimed, right? It reclaimed 510 and the video went absolutely nuts, right? So you had the 503 took out here, took out the 5010, and this is the first close over supply trading over the 515 areas. So obviously I love the video again, going in for this week as well to kind of confirm this channel here. So really, really big move there as well. And like I said, I was very surprised, like I was very pleasantly surprised of the value, okay? And I think that's, when you're going into a trading session and you basically turn around and say, look, I'm not expecting anything, right? You have no expectations, you have no letdown, you have no disappointments, your mind is clear and you're willing to trade both sides of the market. And I think that's it. So I think going into this week, there's a lot of really good setups. Let me just give you guys a couple of names that are non-beta names that I'm watching. Like look at the solar stocks, right? Canadian solar, I had some news on Friday, I also believe there was some October 35 calls. Keep an eye on this thing, this thing looks really good. If it could just confirm this channel here, who knows, maybe goes into this 3370s level, SPWR also in the solar space as well. Pretty basic setup here. For all you guys who are trading a little bit lower names, if it can just confirm 10, 90, 11, maybe it shoots back to $12, that looks good. Check out the Z, right? Recent IPO, I think it came public in June, okay? You can see here, every single time they try to confirm this linear regression line, it kept on getting rejected, right? Linear regression line came like, it's kind of the same thing now. It really needs to reclaim, somewhere around the 40, 20, 40, 50 area. If it could just close over the $40 area, I think the stock will go higher. Again, we saw, I think we saw October 40, either October or November 45 calls. Please check, but again, if they could just break this whole downtrend, it could start moving up as well. Obviously, all the beta names aren't watched as well. So for all you guys, have a wonderful, lovely, healthy, happy Sunday. Have an awesome trading session. Again, for all Jewish friends, have an easy fast, lots of love, and God willing, I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care guys, have a great day.