 Good morning. Good morning, everybody. We're about to begin the next session. If you could take your seats, please Good morning, everybody. My name is Barry Devrom the managing partner of McCann Fitzgerald we're delighted to sponsor with Deloitte the Conference today and once again delighted also to be a partner with IIEA who we have worked with for many many years I hope you're enjoying what has been a fascinating session so far and the level of insight We've received has been a testimony to the quality of the speaker that has been attracted here Today and the title of the next session is the EU without the United Kingdom and when I was thinking about it during the week I was reminded of the immortal line of Captain Boyle in Sean O'Casey's Juno on the paycock when he said the whole world is in a terrible state of chasis That was first uttered on the stage of the Abbey in 1924 and I wonder what Mr. O'Casey would make if he were alive today To say the same thing So to get on with the introduction as we heard earlier safeguarding the great progress that the Good Friday agreement has brought to this island has been the major Concern of the Irish government and indeed of the other European member states in the Brexit discussions and rightly so But once that key issue is resolved and the ultimate form of the trading and economic relationship between the EU key UK and the EU becomes clear The focus in Ireland in particular will undoubtedly focus On what being a member of the EU without Britain being a member will be like and it's been clear to us from early on that because of Geographic historical and cultural ties Ireland is a unique position when it comes to Brexit with experts united in their view that will have a significant impact on the Irish economy in almost any scenario we can forecast and While some of the more extreme commentators have Called for Ireland to join our UK brethren in leaving the EU Even the more sober among us would recognize that our membership of the EU will look fundamentally different with the loss of what has Historically been our closest ally in Europe We joined the EU as we know on the same day as the United Kingdom in 1972 and on most occasions since then We have seen eye-to-eye with each other in Europe particularly around regulation where we've been generally very closely aligned and Post-Brexit we all know that Ireland's gonna have to develop new alliances Right across the EU and deepen the relations that we already have with our member states So that we retain the same degree of influence on the issues that really matter to us We in the campus Gerald have always been keenly aware of the importance of the EU to Ireland And we were the first Irish firm to set up a Brussels office in 1974 and I'm delighted to see the Charles Fitzgerald Partner in McAnford's chair at the time is here today, and he actually opened our office way back in a prescient move in 1974 Similarly in a move that proved unfortunately prescient we set up our brexit steering group in the autumn of 2015 As it became apparent to us that while this outcome might be unlikely if it were to happen The effects would be quite extreme and in April of that year we partner with IIA ahead of the vote to Look at what might happen if Britain were to vote to leave the European Union So as the negotiations have progressed we have helped clients plan for many different eventualities Though as yet things haven't become as clear as you might have liked So we're therefore delighted to partner once again with the Institute of international and European Affairs for this prestigious event Such a high caliber assembled and the quality of that Panel both earlier this morning and to my left here today is a testament to the reputation of the Institute Not just in Ireland, but right across the EU and We in McAnford's Gerald believed that a major law firm must show leadership and as we as we gain experience through working with our clients Getting unique insights and opportunities to influence the outcome of various business and financial matters We see it as essential that a law firm like ours plays a leadership role in facilitating the ongoing discussion Around the impacts of brexit the commercial legal and regulatory issues that will arise and in particular on the future Relationship of Ireland the EU and our relationship with the UK So I'm going to hand you over to my colleague Philip Andrews Who's now going to moderate an intriguing discussion on the issue of the EU without the United Kingdom and the expert panel to My left today of Jose Manuel Barroso Catherine Day and Dominic Reeve will undoubtedly give us very valuable insights Into that issue just a little bit about Philip Philip leads our Competition regulated markets EU and trade law group and he focuses on antitrust transactional and counseling issues He has represented a wide variety of clients before the European Commission and also before the competition and consumer protection Commission here in Ireland and various national regulatory agencies Philip practice law for six years in Brussels and as co-author of the leading textbook in Ireland called modern Irish Competition law and practice. He's also a fantastic colleague to us and one of the very best practitioners in EU and trade law in this country The next topic as you know is the is the EU without the UK pretty weighty topic and It poses major questions for us here in Ireland not least the question posed by Connor Brady Who's a member of the Institute in his excellent article in yesterday's Sunday Times when he posed the question Do we in Ireland follow Macron to the heart of Europe a reference to Macron's speech in Strasbourg last Tuesday? so thank you for listening and Like me. I do hope you look forward to an intriguing discussion with our panel. I'm going to hand you over now to Philip Andrews. Thank you very much Thank you very much Barry Excuse me. I will try to follow Olivia Olivia's Skill and in the earlier panel and let's get kicked off. So and I'm going to start with Jose Manuel You were the European Commission president for 10 years from 2014 to 2004 You at that time would have engaged in the Lisbon negotiation treaties You would have been confronted with the financial crisis Your your your wisdom and and and ideas and thoughts on the Politics at level at the EU level that may be playing out now And I would maybe perhaps mark back once to Bertie Hernd's moment in the earlier session when he said Might Ireland be brought into the Halloween party at the very end and left with a with a do or die situation Look First of all, let me thank you for invitations great to be back in Dublin where I spent so many hours discussing in different formats the European Union issues Asking me to Give my perspectives on the consequence of Brexit namely from European perspective My first point is that it was of course very bad news for Europe Because Britain is one of the most important Economists in Europe and in the world permanent member of Security Council a credible power in defense terms and create incredibly networked Country all over the world home of the English language that became now the lingua franca in the world So for many other reasons We are losing one of the most important members of our club and when that happens, of course the club is poorer So it was a problem at the same time. I think today the mood in Europe is Let's let's move on Frankly the kind of debate we had here this morning that I heard Together with you. I think it will not be possible in most European countries today Because that's not a priority. It is a priority in Britain and here But it's not certainly a priority for the German Chancellor that has been trying to form a government For the French present that is in fact trying to launch his reforms and they as his own priorities in Italy They are trying to form a government or the other countries I could cut all of them typically the European Union takes decisions very late It only when it has to take them and so Today this is not yet a priority, but there will come a crunch time and the crunch time I Don't know where it will come but of course There is some kind of commitment to respect the timetables It can also happen in European Union that as we usually say we stop the clock when there is no an agreement We try to get some more time typically also there is some moment of drama and I think it's almost unavoidable that you'll have a moment or more than one moment of drama before an agreement Will be made in case of course an agreement will be made. I continue to think That the most likely scenario will be to have an agreement But not a very ambitious one The European Union certainly wants an agreement. I have no doubts about it. The European Union by definition by I would say genetics by its culture It's for a compromise and not only European institutions certainly the Commission, but to the European countries they really want a compromise, but we have to understand one thing if in Europe it is difficult to To come To a common position. It's even more difficult to change a common position once it's taken And that's what now the British government is discovering the British government was Expecting that after some negotiations there will be a kind of real movement in the European position and that's not happening and let me tell you my my Testimony when I had at some times to intervene in important negotiations In trade for instance some of the major players globally It was clear that it was much easier from a European perspective to convince the others to change than for the Commission to convince 27 or 28 countries to change This is the reality and this is Extremely interesting because at the same time the strengths of the European Union Once he takes a position. It's so hard to change it or it can change incrementally or in the margins But basically until now the European countries have shown in fact a remarkable unity in terms of their position namely the mantra of No sherry picking and in fact they understand that if they start now opening this or that Exception that can be difficult for the future. So from my point of view a compromise looks Still possible. I hope it will be at least to keep the status quo in terms of goods I think it will be absurd to have now the introduction of quotas or tariffs between Europe and the UK It will be more difficult of course in terms of the single market because well many people in Britain believe that the Trading services is like other Trade that's not European understanding in European Union terms and doctrine It is very much linked with the drug establishment with other conditions with regulatory conditions that in fact Make it very difficult if a country is not in the single market and even less if the country is not in the customs union to have access to the Single market. So I think Britain will not achieve its goal of having Full access or almost full access to the single market. I think there will be at the end Some kind of accommodation of some concerns and pragmatic Arrangements are possible, but it's going to be extremely difficult Named in some areas that are very important from a British point of view One of the more complicated factors was and is certainly the Northern Irish Issue people already spoke about it. I'm not going to repeat But and the but the fact that the British government has defined a position of not being the customs union Of course makes it much more difficult. So I'm sure that now a lot of thought has been given not only in a In Britain but also in Europe. How can we find a customs union that is not the customs unit But a customs union the creativity of law lawyers is boundless So there are and I can tell you the creativity of the European Union Commission and the council Lawyers is indeed great. So if there is a will there will be a way But that is in fact one of the most difficult issues. I think we have to face in these Negotiations, but I'm sure the European Union countries want a solution that will be respecting the fundamental aspirations of our and I have no doubts about it and I also am sure that Britain wants a solution for it The the government of the United Kingdom wants a solution. So it should be possible provided. There is some Flexibility and I hope that will of course not put in danger the overall agreement now What can be the future of the European Union without Britain first of all, it depends it depends on what we say or what you do as a young Participants in the participants in the previous Discussion as shown there are a lot of ideas about the future I personally believe and I'm speaking now after this Experience of ten years leading the Commission including of the most difficult times after the no vote to the constitutional treaty We had to find the Lisbon Treaty the terrible financial and sovereign debt crisis and other crises like the gas crisis with Russia the Invasion of Ukraine by Russia and so on. Yes one thing I can tell you I believe the resilience of the European Union and the resilience of the euro are much higher than most people assume namely in the Anglo-American world We have shown that resilience. I was I had the honor to represent European Union in the G8 in G20 in bilateral talks with the American present Chinese leadership of Japan and at that time I remember most people were assuming That Greg's it wasn't avoidable Greece will leave the euro and maybe the euro will collapse that did not happen And of course it was and that is important to understand the European Union is not a state and at least in the foreseeable future Will not be a state. It will not be So it's incremental. It's by nature fragmented time-consuming Terrible frustrating sometimes in terms of time of political capital investment But at the end there is a compromise at the end it works This is important to understand the European Union. So there are two scenarios. I think it will not happen the disintegration of European Union Some would like it, but it will not happen or the United States of Europe tomorrow. That will not happen We are going to have something in between if you want an image as scaffolding It's a process where ambiguity to use an expression. It was already used today ambiguity can be functional Diversity in the world like the one we have today Diversity can be a way to deal Efficiently with the world with increased and predictability and increased variety when the environment is very unstable for a system it's sometimes better to Increase the level of its increased level of its complexity to cope with this change and that's where I believe There will be room in the future for the opinion and indeed if you want my opinion also for the role of Ireland Ireland is in fact a country that has been punching above its weight in European Union I can't testify not only because I'm here with my good friend Catherine Day One of the highest officials that was working also and the time I was in the commission But you have a great diplomacy and they have very competent experts in all fields And I've seen some situations where Ireland being not one of the biggest states Was able in fact if he defends with determination its interest can in fact achieve its goals And I see a role for Ireland in the future Not only in the linkage between European Union and Britain but also why not to say it in the linkage between European Union and Anglo-American world because I believe more than ever we need that commitment as The world is going now for instance the engagement with the United States of America Even if I know it's difficult in some areas we need it and Ireland can play a role one of the suggestions I could leave for the future. I know it's not to be tomorrow, but why not to think about it in the future? Why not an FDA between European Union the UK and United States of America? That don't make sense. That's the rational thing to know and to do because and in fact in the relations with Britain There is one thing I keep saying to my European friends There will be no country More important for the European Union as a third country than the United Kingdom Now people are very sad some frustrated some irritated But we have to think strategically the United Kingdom will remain a very important country for the opinion at the same time United Kingdom will have to understand that if they decided to leave a club and They without because they did not want to pay all the fees of being the club named the freedom of movement of people Of course, they cannot have exactly same rights So some kind of solution has to be found in that spirit of compromise and I believe it can be done Thank you. Can I bring Catherine Day in on that so Catherine you've been Secretary-General for the European Commission for 10 years To term and up in that position. You had the privilege to sit on European Council meetings You wanted to talk a little bit about about the trade issues that might arise And the loss of expertise I think with the departure of the UK and what that might impact on the regulatory Thank you very much. I wanted to talk a little bit about how we're going to miss the UK And we heard this morning already a very strong illustration of how Ireland is going to miss the UK in the EU But I think the wider EU is also going to miss the UK and I want to focus on three areas The first is trade because the most ardent advocate of free trade international free trade Inside the EU has been the UK and it is In the age of globalization a model that has brought prosperity To the small countries like Ireland that are small open trading economies to the wider EU and also lifted billions of people out of poverty across the globe and I do have a concern that without the UK being there to urge the European Union to stay open to the outside world That the siren voices of protectionism Will be slightly stronger around the EU table So I think we're going to miss them on the trade side and it's never been more important for Europe to be the Voice of rallying the rest of the world to stick to what has been a good model since the Second World War What we are seeing now Among the biggest countries like the United States like China is a desire to go back to getting what they want Because they have the clout they think to get that and I think we will all lose if we If we don't stick to the multilateral order of agreed rules, however frustrating It is in terms of negotiation, but so I think the European Union has maybe Of necessity been a bit too inward looking in the last 20 years It now needs to really become again the advocate of the international trading order and it is good news To see that the EU Japan negotiations have been concluded EU and Japan together account for one third of the world's GDP so very important economic weight The good news over the weekend of conclusion on Mexico. We need more messages like that because I think most of the world understands That even if there is give and take a Rules-based way of organizing world trade is by far the best So that's one area where I think we're going to miss the UK the second is in the area of what I call reform And on two levels every time we have had treaty changes The UK has been among those who have been arguing Against the seemingly inexorable transfer of powers to Brussels And I think that in future work in terms of deciding where the EU is going We do have to have a continuing debate about Sharing power and it can't only be a one-way street And there are issues where member states cannot solve their problems on their own Migration being the latest sad illustration of that But there are other areas where I think we have to be open to some transfer of powers back to the member states in order to find that flexible accommodation between working together in our interest when it suits us but also Respecting different national ways and different national practices for things that maybe we can trust The member states to manage for themselves, but also reform with a smaller Definition and that's in the whole area of regulation President Brosnan knows very well and how Unyielding the British have been in terms of pushing the better regulation agenda wanting less Europe less interference It does go back as was said on the panel this morning I think to the difference between the common law country and the civil law basis of the European Union Again, I fear without the UK at the table There will be a degree of regulatory creep in the future European Union because quite a lot of other countries Actually want more decisions taken in Brussels countries that are maybe have strong regional differences or weak governance They prefer to have European rulemaking. So I think that caught that Argument over what should be done by Brussels? What should be done nationally? It's not going to go away anytime soon And I think from an Irish perspective where we prefer the light touch regulation We will have to work harder to find allies to Keep that debate going My third area then is just a very since I'm the the non-politician on this panel is a technical one and it's about the loss of expertise because I think in in Where the where the real work of the European Union is done once the big political directions have been set is in Thousands and thousands of meetings of experts and the UK has brought a very valuable again international reach In certain areas like financial services, although the UK never was going to join the euro They have been perhaps the biggest single shaper of the European Union's financial services arrangements to date Also because they wanted to shape it to preserve and protect the position of London while not being in the euro the medicines agency the UK is one of the biggest Initiators and leaders of clinical trials. So these are just two examples of where we're going to I think miss The UK for the future, but having said that it's not all bad news I think there are also some areas where we will miss them less The UK has constantly cast in the role of putting the foot on the brake Of European integration and I think in some areas where that foot is lifted it will be positive I'm thinking particularly of the whole social area Where the UK has definitely? been a freezing element in Maybe not not totally strong efforts by the rest of Europe to develop a social agenda, but I think It's clear that you cannot leave suede's of the population out of the benefits of EU membership There has to be a way to have a modern social agenda To fight against the forces of populism and extremism and I think there and there is now a better chance Minus the UK to develop that social agenda and the last area where I think we will miss them less will be in the constant sniping And undermining of what the EU is trying to do British journalists have very effectively used ridicule To undermine the earnest and and sometimes slow efforts of the EU to build what is a unique construction And I think we will have much less of that in the future and it has infected The media right across the European Union and beyond so I think there there are big areas where we'll miss them There are big areas where maybe Europe can can move ahead and in the areas where we will miss them I think one of the answers was already given this morning. We have to stay very close to them And I do think that the UK will Outside the European Union will realize how much it has in common with the EU in lots of areas and will seek to work with the European Union as a friend of the European Union as an important Economic power and that will more likely than not through its weight in behind the EU I've been in lots of climate change negotiations where it has often been a lonely journey of We would be up on the platform saying the EU plus Norway and Switzerland I can see in lots of cases in the future in different negotiations We will be up on the platform saying the EU and the UK argue for this and that so I think There will be a time a time shock when the UK actually goes all the things I've mentioned I think we will have to take care of but I think over time we will mature into a Relationship that's based on self-interest and that's the biggest motivation of all Thank you, Catherine Dominic Grieve you've been a MP for 21 years Most notably in your career. You've been the Attorney General from 2010 to 2014 Including Advocate General for the for Northern Ireland And you've maintained a strong interest in the rule of law as we've seen your Challenge in the Parliament Parliament should have a vote on matter We're not going to have a British Europe will we have a European Britain It's very difficult to predict what the future of the EU is going to be without the United Kingdom What's is clear is that the United Kingdom's decision to leave Has as its base not I think an internal difference within the Conservative Party I think that's a mistake. It's one manifestation of it, but a much wider resentment against the sense of external bureaucratic control over The United Kingdom and it does seem to be a rather Interesting oddity of these islands that we periodically throw up Revolutionary movements which are led by bourgeois And we've done it here on this island and we've done it also in the United Kingdom based on tradition Which completely overturns the existing order and then people have to pick up the pieces afterwards And we are in the United Kingdom in the process of picking up those pieces And it's not at all clear how the pieces will be picked up and what the United Kingdom's Input or where we will be in 12 months or two years time I was asked I think speak this morning a little bit about Where the United Kingdom is going in this debate and obviously where it's going is going to shape what influence such as we may have In the way in which the EU tends to develop thereafter My view is that I happen to agree with what the last two speakers have said I mean, I think the EU's got plenty of problems and some of those problems are of a quite systemic character and I think they need to be addressed Or there is a risk that the EU may fray at the edges again But that having been said I also happen to agree that the EU is a very resilient Organization and I don't think it's about to collapse tomorrow as perhaps some of my conservative colleagues at Westminster might secretly wish The problem at the moment is an internal one about the United Kingdom and its destiny and perhaps I could just touch on that a little bit We have precipitated a political crisis for ourself We've precipitated political crisis which destroyed a government within 20 seconds of the EU referendum result We've precipitated a crisis which then led Theresa May when she tried to get public support For the government to carry through Brexit successfully She wasn't able to get it in the general election last year because the climate of uncertainty that had built up was so great But at the same time we have a situation where on the face of it public opinion is as polarized if not more polarized than it was at the time we voted in 2016 Indeed professor Curtis who's done the polling says well, you know you look across the polling results And frankly the only real shift is that some of the people who voted Brexit are dead And some of the people who are coming on to the electoral register tend to have a different point of view But that might mean that the UK's change of position would take 10 to 20 years and in my view once we're out of the EU I don't think there's any real likelihood of our going back in because we couldn't get the terms of UK exceptionalism Which have been the thing which have been so important to us in our membership So we are heading sometime in the autumn for a major political crisis in the United Kingdom And that crisis will determine I suppose one of three possibilities One is whether we leave on the terms that are negotiated And some of those terms may be very uncertain Secondly that the deal gets rejected with the potential that we might leave on the 29th of March next year or the 30th of March with no deal at all Or on the final possibility, which I don't think can be entirely excluded Is that the crisis which is engendered Leads to an outcome where in fact the British people have to be consulted again and could even potentially change their mind That's how I see things shaping Meanwhile, we're going to be a disturbing influence on the way the EU Progressives although I accept that the disturbance is going to be much harder here Than probably anywhere else in Europe. We're on the whole people just want to ignore it But the relationship we're going to have with the EU Whatever form it takes is clearly going to be of considerable importance I think actually to the way the EU progresses After it but unless we are wholly out of it in the wto relationship The uk's impact because of its economic size And its destiny in terms of whether it thrives economically or does badly Is clearly going to be seen as a mirror held up Across the EU to how the EU itself is performing So I hesitate to answer your question on the EU's future I happen to think it's a resilient organization and I regret that we're leaving it I regret that so many of my Fellow countrymen seem to have misunderstood what the EU is about Which is one of the reasons why they're now having so much difficulty coming to terms of the uk's departure They've always seen the EU as a foreign sovereign state from which we are negotiating secession Not as an international treaty organization governed by a rule book Which is why we're having difficulty negotiating with it because you can't really go outside the rule book Whereas there seems to be a british idea that you can Um, so I I'm afraid I can't answer that second question about the EU's future It will continue but what interests me obviously as a british politician is what is our relationship with the EU going to be How's it going to progress in the next six months? How's it going to end in terms of the continuing political crisis in the uk? And assuming we're gone on terms How will that then have an influence on the way our economy grows and the well-being of british people develops And how will that in turn have a mirror into the EU's future? And that I think is the big imponderable And I'd be very hesitant as I say to try to answer that question. Thank you Well, can I perhaps to give it some perspective? Can I ask each of you what you would think are the three top issues facing the europe right now? And uh, if you wouldn't mind saying where breaks it lies in those if it does And maybe hesitating some possible solutions to those issues Okay, I can start if you I think the issue more difficult for europe now to deal with is this issue of my illegal migration That is putting a big pressure in some of our countries not all of them in some of these matters Frankly not an issue But in some countries The attitude towards The illegal migrants Is indeed fueling anti european parties And it's putting out of pressure in the let's say mainstream political forces And it's in fact also dividing the european union Because some countries simply do not agree with a common approach on that and so I believe that If the european union wants to keep freedom of movement inside And that is a goal By the way a treaty established goal The condition to keep the freedom of movement is to be credible in terms inside is to be credible in terms of our border outside Sure, so that's why I think there will be some progress in that area. By the way That's also something that can also happen because of britain living I think there will be some progress in terms of the european identity in terms of defense Uh britain is because a very important partner Also as a nato member it's a nuclear power But it's not by accident that now we already had this progress with the permanent structure cooperation on defense From that point of view besides brexit, there are two other unificators of europe. It's mr. trump and mr. putin When president trump is asking europeans to spend more money in terms of defense Namely on nato the europeans can spend it on nato But also on developing their own capabilities By the way in accordance with nato doctrine of pulling and sharing So I think there will be some progress there and also because some of our member states are in fact terrified With the possibilities of some actions or provocations coming from russia and so European everything that is now linked to it illegal migration Internal security security of the borders fight against terrorism and the stronger defense is At the same time a vulnerability of europe and an opportunity for some progress. It will be I repeat incremental progress They're not going to have the european army as some people were fearing But we are going to see some progress in that area the two other issues. I think it's of course I mean In fact these are already two or three because it's defense. It's security. I mean internal security and also terrorism I think these are most important challenges something that could come outside of course trade globally I continue to think that at the end Mr. Trump is a very transactional leader. So until now in fact trades between europe and the united states has not been affected On the contrary it has been growing and in fact the deficit Of the u.s. Has been increasing But of course there is a problem for europe Because europe is relying as it was already said in an open Let's say global system of trading a multilateral trade. So that is also a challenge for europe brexit comes in all these issues. So As I said before This is not in the Mind of most europeans now as a priority. I just came from naples yesterday I can tell you there the two issues is if The football team of naples is still able to win the league in italy and about a new government in italy on this order These are the priorities brexit is not certainly the top three priorities. You see in most of our countries That's the point, but there will be a time when This will come And uh, and there will be a crunch time there will be and this is a very important moment because as I said There will be no country more important for the european and in britain comparable Probably united states of america, but britain because of its Of its geography so close to the rest of europe because of the linguistic cultural economic investment trade Financial all these relationships. In fact, it's critical today for instance people don't know that most of people The third partner of europe in terms of trade is switzerland small switzerland Comes immediately after the united states in china as our most important partner So of course britain will be a much more important dimension and switzerland So it's critically important that we do these Negotiations at the end with some reasonable compromise. If not, it can be having negative effects not only for britain I'm sure about that, but also for the european Catherine can I ask you your your your views on that? Well, I would agree. I would put migration as the top priority as well um I think we will find a solution that might take five more Five plus years, but I think we will get there. I think we need a much stronger external border and to that extent I think maybe brexit will will be Will not be unhelpful I think we also need managed migration european populations are aging If we want to keep up our standards of living, we're going to have to have more migration I think it's a debate that the politicians have to have with their publics So I won't go further on that the second point. I think is eurozone integration. It's very technical But the euro is not yet as fully stable as well established as it needs to be I think there's widespread recognition of that across the eurozone and beyond There and I think there is agreement on that say between france and germany but not on the detail But I think there is agreement that we have to go further in in Making the euro as proof from future crisis as it needs to be and in this country I don't need to elaborate further on why And I asked on that my sorry. Can I just ask on that? And what role arland has in that in that negotiation? Is it an angle of french determination? No, I think it will not move until france and germany agree I think there's plenty of room for all other countries to have an influence on that debate Because I don't think they agree on other than that the basic need I think that There's a lot of experience to be brought to that debate in the design of it And I think very little of it will be public because it's so technical I think of a lot of it will go on through the experts and then The politicians taking the decisions, but that will have been prepared by again the necessary experts But my third point Is more difficult to be precise on but I would say the third item for me on the agenda is a mix of values and engagement And one reason why I think the migration crisis is so dramatic is because it does touch on Does europe really have shared values? And I think there's it looks as though In part of the newer member states in particularly in poland and angry at least in in the leadership There seems to be a different interpretation of those values now And I think the european union has to address it. I think The commission was right to go down the road of of taking more formal proceedings to underline the importance Of our shared common values and it's interesting that an irish judge has decided to refer a case to the european court of justice It would be very interesting to see i'm sure the court was uncomfortable to get that referral But it would be interesting to see what they say But I do think the thing that's been the most difficult and brown cow and said it this morning Is how do you bring the european the eu debate and make it internal? How do we stop seeing it as something that you know brussels made us do this or brussels wouldn't allow us to How do we bring it home and say well, we are brussels. We are at the table. We are participating in all of this How does how does the european union regain? public buy-in and I think what's happened over brexit has been an eye-opener right across europe to What we thought we could take for granted in terms of rights Can suddenly be taken away if you decide to leave now that that will not be a lasting effect But I think we have to really you know Redouble our efforts to get the buy-in from the population To rule them away from the populists and the extremists because that that kind of rhetoric I think is the most damaging and it's the area where maybe At governmental level the eu has been the least successful Dominic, can I turn to you turn to you? Excuse me on it On a specific issue and it's looking forward and it refers to the question that the ifa president made earlier what what what is this? You know this new Jerusalem you're you're building in in great in great britain global Britain Is it going to be a Taker of the environmental and animal standards or is it going to? Are we going to see chlorinated chickens and the hormone injected beef? I Think not I think this goes back a moment to some of the things we've been talking about But the difficulty with the brexit debate and it was quite clear joining the referendum is that it often happens when you build an issue round quite a An important matter you get people coming in from all sides Who will unite who otherwise have entirely disparate and contradictory agendas So brexit was driven by a combination of deep anxiety about the future of the country because of the financial crisis of 2008 The perception that the eu had been rather poor in responding to it and had been relatively unsuccessful in global terms Huge anxiety about migration Of course became centered on freedom of movement But actually on the doorstep joined the referendum that wasn't the question that was being raised It was the vision of thousands of desperate people trying to cross the aegean or cross the mediterranean to get into europe With absolutely no policy In place at a european level to address this And you only had to see some of the stuff that was put out I mean the you know the one the posts are about 76 million turks are about to come here because they're about to join the european union And you can do nothing about it promoted by one of my colleagues who's still in ministerial office Even though at the time it was pointed out that she had just said something which was Manifestly inaccurate when she said that um the uk would have no ability to prevent that from happening so you have that and you have it linked to a it's wrong to say xenophobic, but certainly a deep anxiety about the erosion of national identity and national values and national cohesion In the face of globalization of which the eu is a manifestation which is irksome because it is controlling But those people have not the slightest desire to have free market economics at all Indeed as labor has found because remember the labor party has been Splished by this as we have it's just expressed itself differently On the contrary the message is one of maintaining standards even over to the point of protectionism Now that's then linked to a small libertarian group I get them in my constituency and they are manifested within the conservative cabinet Who believe that the united kingdom should turn itself into the singapore of the north atlantic? They think that the eu has been over regulating They think that it's possible to do trade deals with other countries and have free trade because Freed of the individual interests of the 27 other member states it will be much easier to get them They would like a low tax a probably low welfare society And one where although they want regulatory frameworks They think we can be much more flexible once we're free of the dead hand of eu bureaucracy I mean I have to say that if I Politicians shouldn't make predictions and then we make another prediction a week later as a Bertie Herndon said we change our minds Or a contradictory prediction But I just don't think this group has any significant traction in the united kingdom whatsoever I mean I keep on saying to them Your vision is going nowhere The more likely outcome is as if brexit doesn't work You'll end up with a protectionist left wing labor government Led by a Corbyn like figure if not Corbyn himself Who simply sees departure from the eu as the opportunity to destroy a capitalist construct That's the risk to us And if I were putting my money I would say that I don't think that this vision of the chlorinated chicken Future for the uk has any traction at all. And so just to widen it a moment There was Bertie Herndon talking about regulatory alignment And there is an irony about this I mean I think if the eu is prepared to give us regulatory alignment with the opportunity to diverge on notice when we wanted to I'm prepared to take a small wager that in 10 years time. We won't have diverged on anything Because what we'll have got is our excuse me our shin of feinery. We will have got our ourselves alone We are able to do what we want Without interference and hey presto you'll then find that having got that We'll continue to behave in exactly the same way as we did before Well, can I Can I ask just one more specific question on that? Last week's negotiations Ended on wednesday without an an outcome. Um, there was I saw at least one um insider saying that the um British proposals on the northern Ireland were subject to um forensic annihilation um, what what and there seemed to be quite a bit of um Discussion immediately afterwards back back in britain about that and the implications. Is there any flavor you can Give to us on on how that might come out The prime minister Clearly as she said on three occasions in three major speeches Wants to try to do a deal which gives us a deep and special relationship with the EU which preserves almost every single framework Of participation in the single market and the customs union without being in either That's what she wants and i'm absolutely clear in my mind. That's genuine That the difficulty is Custom the main the difficulty is what happens if we can't get it And I mean it's a difficulty for me. I mean, we've got a debate coming up on thursday on a customs union But let's be clear about this participating in a customs union whilst being outside the EU Is not an ideal state of affairs the vassalage allegations of Of borris johnson and michael gove my colleagues have some force about that It's a relationship of dependency and the turks haven't quite like their customs union very much And i'm not sure that we would but on the other hand if you're asking me the question Do I think a customs union is better for the gdp of the uk than these mythical third country agreements? Which liam fox is gallivanting around the planet trying to secure I think you will find there is a very large number of parliamentarians at west minster who think that liam whilst Very commendably going on his travels is wasting his time And this is the classic dilemma So, I mean, I don't know what the the solution is I think dominic has said very well what the uk wants the question is if they can't get it what then And I think what the commission has been doing very well is to say Okay, uk. We've listened to all your red lines. We've looked at Our red lines because we're not going to undermine the integrity of our single market Here's what you can have and that's what's written down in the withdrawal treaty And that's what has been scoping out of the future relationship and While the clock is ticking very fast. We're still not in the end game I think that is in in circumstances, which are very frustrating for the eunuch negotiating side At least if one side is clear and says here's what you can have if we take at face value everything you say That's the only way to move it forward because now the onus is on the uk to come back and say Well, maybe a bit of this not that but until the uk is able to put up an equivalently detailed Negotiating position. I think it's extremely difficult for the eu to move further and I think president rosio is right to say that once the eu has decided it's very difficult to change and that's why When asked what's the future relationship going to be and if you take if you're respectful of the red lines the uk has mapped out then it can only be Around the canada model or around the norway model Why not because the eu is is not negotiating? It's because each of those models were built on on multiple compromises inside the eu And you can't now remove just one bit of those compromises without some eu member state being very Can I ask one question on that? Jose Manuel Jose Manuel, excuse me We hear some About certain Member states perhaps are certain parts of the eu wanting to make An example of the eu wanting to make the Exit In such a way that it will discourage other Other member states from exiting. I mean is that Do you think that's a Factor or is that a media? It's probably I mean, I don't know if that goes in the mind of some people but frank. I don't think this is the case I think it's The idea of punishing the united king will be ridiculous because in fact the european will be punishing itself I think the fact is that european as rules The common market of the single market as well by the way it was to a large extent the british invention the single market It was done To a large extent responding to initiatives of market texture and with lord coke filled in the commission So that is the irony of thing if there is a country that has been given contribution to the single market It has been precisely united kingdom now And there are some rules there And so certainly I think british leaders will understand this You cannot be In a club Only to get the benefits and not to pay some price for it freedom of movement is in fact a basic principle of the Single market since the beginning it was freedom of people And so and by the way the champion of freedom of movement has been to a large extent Bruton Bruton was one of the countries that did not use the clause transitional clause when new member states joined european union You remember it was under tony blare government And britain has by the way the champion of the enlargement of the european union So britain cannot say oh we we don't want this freedom of movement now because now these countries are very poor And there is a big difference because that is that was the argument by the way because it was Precisely britain if it was not for britain I think we will not have probably had the enlargement so wide as we've got at the end So this is why today to keep the integrity of the of the internal market This is a very serious issue for the european union. It's not just to play a hard ball With this with the british and by the way from that point of view I think it will be wise to to have realistic expectations On that matter, uh, I said it by the way privately at that time I was still president of commission when david cameron Put that condition I said to david cameron, please david ask anything except that because you are not going to get it So while there was a concern in some of our member states Including in germany because the position was or maybe angloamerica will support us Because in germany also there are some concerns about too many let's say non german coming to the The market there but germany could not for instance let down the poles It's very important to understand the relationship between the germany and poland So it's when there are so many poles that it becomes a problem when it was others there was not a problem And so that's very important to understand european union allows for some differentiation But not for stratification If we have the idea that now they are first class and second class countries Then it will be a problem. That's why of course if now The brit the european union will give to british government Every single british government is asking it will be of course an incentive For the euro folks or the hard euros captain some of our currency We want the same we want to be Out of the european union without but with all the benefits of being in european union I'm conscious of time and I'm sure people want to ask questions, but can I just ask one very quick question of each of you? very quickly to speculate guess As to where the EU UK relationship will be in 10 years time It depends That's the answer. It depends. He's a lawyer. No, it's not nothing. He settled in advance in advance. It depends. But okay, I'm sorry Well, I think the events of the last two years have shown the perils of prediction, but What I would hope would be that We will have a mature grown-up relationship between the UK and the EU I I suspect There will be a lot of Regret in the UK because they will lose influence I think it will have an effect on their standard of living and well-being and their influence in the world But I hope that we will have found the way even after treaties have been concluded and all the rest to come back into A good way of working together despite the fact that we once were members of the same union, but no longer are I suppose if I had it my way, we will still be in it But that that's dependent on a number of factors and realistically Probably won't happen, but I wouldn't totally exclude it Wow That's important I also let me just since you are in this question. I also don't exclude it, but I consider it It's unfortunately from my perspective because I'm I'm a pre-eupian very committed. I remain loyal to the opinion at the same time I'm sometimes accused of being anglophile. So I would know but in honesty I think the probability of avoiding the Brexit is relatively low very relatively low And I think it's important because for business and for for all of us that have to take decisions every day I think we should Make the central assumption that Brexit is going to happen and we have to be ready for it now If it does not happen great But most likely the most likely central scenario will be that Brexit will happen And so I think the responsibility of grown-up people as Catherine was saying is to try to Mitigate negative effects as much as possible and to build a minimum basis for a fruitful For the future Do you have questions from the from the floor? It's quite hard to see with the light. Can we have a microphone up? I was in a fogged seat Could you introduce yourself? Good morning? Nor Owen is my name and I'm a member of the institute And I have found this a fascinating day I think I want to ask Don a specific specific question because he has spoken to us at the institute But I think one of the things I'll take away is President Bross has reminded to us that there are not panels like this Sitting throughout europe discussing only brexit and trying to help us to make decisions Both in the uk and ireland we just have to remember that we're very exercised about it here But it's not happening necessarily all over and Brian Cowan Reference to the difficulties in some of the other european countries who couldn't care less really what's happening over here Because they have their own problems, but I wanted to ask Dominic During those early days of confusion when Prime minister may was trying to sweeten the pill as it were she Immediately said we will no longer be part of the european court of justice You'll be free to commit all the crime you want and we'll deal with it It'll be our business and you won't have to go to that awful court But as time went on and as her police forces and the security forces began to tell her how important Europe all the court was She's kind of moved back a bit as a former attorney general. Can you help us to understand whether at the end of the day? Britain will still as it were allow their citizens To avail of the european court I mean there'll be british citizens living all over europe And they will need the right if something goes wrong when they're living in france or germany to maybe use the court So have you any more wisdom to add to that particular side of the debate? thank you But first it's right to say that I don't think the prime minister didn't understand the importance of the european court of justice Because as home secretary she'd been absolutely resolute in wanting to integrate the uk into the 35 home affairs and justice Agreements that many in our our party conservative party didn't want to do Precisely because it subordinated us to the jurisdiction of the cj But the ecj has a pariah status in the united kingdom Which is part of this narrative largely created by the press Over a quite a long period and where I think actually we as the political class have only ourselves to blame I think was catherine who made the point in her opening remarks about how The uk's perceptions of the eu have been distorted over time By a whole series of of ideas of what the eu is and how it works And so for a government to keep us in a relationship where the ecj has a role Beyond transition. I have to say to you. I think is very unlikely because the risk to the prime minister if that were to be suggested Is that it would raise? Rebellion on conservative benches, which will be sufficient To depending on how labor behave to destroy her majority I think she'd need to depend on another political party to shore her up other than the dup So um, I have to say I mean, that's why the government is constantly bush There will have to be separate arbitral mechanisms for resolving disputes. I mean the bizarre aspect Is that the united kingdom, you know, it's the greatest treaty making power in world history I think i'm right in saying we've signed up since 1834 to over 13 500 treaty agreements of which about 800 have arbitral mechanisms for resolving disputes And the amazing thing is that my lovely country is extraordinarily good at observing the judgments and implements them without demure Even when they think that they're a bit wacky, you know, sometimes get tribunals decisions and by the standards of international tribunals I mean, I don't wish to give a pin of praise to the european court of justice. It has its quirks But by the standards of international tribunals, it's pretty good And yet bizarrely, we will cheerfully sign up to other international tribunals that might be created ad hoc To resolve our future relations with the eu, but it can't be the ecj That's the reality and I think she'd have great difficulty selling the ecj Um, I mean, I've been suggesting to her politely that we might moderate our position on that But that's precisely why i'm telling you that I think it's likely to be a very difficult thing to do There's a is that tom arnold? I think Yep Well, i'm not tom arnold. I'm willy mccarter and uh, I was ceo of fruit of the loom From the late 80s to 90s when we had 3 000 people working between dunagall and dairy 100 trip movements A day over a very hard border I've lived there all my life and I was with the international fund for arland from 1989 to 2005 So of some experience of border areas Uh, I would like to offer a possible solution Which is entirely above my pay grade, but I'd like to throw it out to the panel And that is this that Brexit seems to me and indeed mr Baroso has adverted to it. It's it's a bit like a long time member of a golf club Deciding one day that they're going to exit the club And they say to the other members i'm going to exit the club I don't want to pay any more jews and i'm out the door But going out the door they say by the way Uh, I feel i'm entitled to come back and use the facilities of the club Play the course The clubhouse and all the other facilities, but i'm not going to pay any jews for this And furthermore, you know those rules that I And I adhered to when I was a member. I don't feel like like adhering to those rules either Well, if we were members of that club, we'd feel pretty aggrieved at that attitude Not the least of which was if we agreed to it Why wouldn't any other members Take the same attitude And what I think there might be a solution here is Most of the of british industry business and the financial sector in the uk Are firmly in the remain camp. They would like like mr grave To remain in the eu So I think there might be a case for for that whole sector saying look We will raise 10 billion sterling per year Which we will give to the uk government on a permanent basis So that they can donate our jews of 10 billion a year To the eu And if we do that and that could be done by I think a half percent of every commercial transaction in the uk If they did that My question is would the would the eu having got the promise of 10 billion sterling a year Which would conveniently plug the hole in the in the eu budget Would the eu entertain such things as an agreement whereby The eu would negotiate what I would call a special single market and a special Customs union for the uk And because it's a special customs union and single market. There might be some special conditions. There might be Going to Catherine day's point There might be a special Immigration agreement negotiated over time There might be a joint eu a european court of justice, sorry a joint uk european court of justice court to adjudicate Disputes and there might be a condition which says to britain or uk You find any trade any free trade agreements you want across across the world. Please feel free to do that But just with the proviso That and bearing in mind they talk about regulatory Alignment and so on with the proviso that if you do find free trade agreements They cannot work until you bring the 27 members of the eu with you I just wonder You know if you pay the jews i'm finishing If you pay the jews, is there any possibility that the eu might come to the table with Some kind of agreements like that that would effectively allow the status quo to continue because I think in a dysfunctional world here in ireland In britain and the u and the uk that and the eu that's very important It's more an eu directed question. I think than the uk directed question I mean the only thing I'll say about the border is you've got to understand that the united kingdom the attitude is It's wrong. I want to emphasize this is that the border is should not be a problem because we have no intention of putting up any border checks On the northern side of the border That that that's the so and there's a lack of understanding Total lack of understanding actually about the social aspects of the border. So it's seen largely in terms of Goods So as we're a free trade country and as we have no intention of providing a barrier area to trade If they we're not going to have customs posts There's a lack of understanding about some of the problems about will you be able to go to your gp? Who happens to be on the other side of the border? Will you be able to go to a school? Which happens to be on the other side of the border And about the regulatory divergence and the consequences On things like food agricultural standards and all these things but that that's just sort of blotted out But as for I mean if I may say so the the vision you were Putting forward is one that would like it have very considerable appeal to a uk government And I mean we are paying 50 billion or approximately for some privilege or other in leaving Which otherwise we would argue we shouldn't be paying at all So there is a sense that there is a cost to going although the EU would take a slightly different view about what that the reasons behind making that payment There is a desire for a continuing relationship But the problem as I was saying earlier is it's a continuing relationship on terms That the uk itself crafts and not the terms that the EU wants to give us I think it's unfortunately in a way not only about the money I think the money was demonized as part of the campaign But if it was as simple as the uk just agreeing to continue to pay It would be done long ago Um, it's about much more important principles Why is freedom of movement so important apart from the fact that it makes a single market work? It's about not discriminating between EU citizens and once you would open that breach I think you wouldn't know where to close it The reality is the uk is going to have to pay for whatever deal it gets to stay in the horizon 2020 the research program It wants to pay it's willing to pay to have access to the single market It will have to pay will it add up to being more than their overall budgetary contribution? Who knows but if it was only about money, it would be easy Unfortunately, it's about even more important things than money I think I wanted two more questions here if we could make them relatively short and concise. Yes Ronan Tynan, a very brief question. I must say I thought we would get an optimistic summit optimistic scenario today But I'm actually more depressed than I was coming in because it seems if I want to put this to dummy brief if Mrs. May wants the benefit of the single market and the benefit of the customs union and still be outside And the Irish government quite rightly is not going to tolerate a Any kind of border replacing the non-existent border at the moment with 99.9 percent support of the population Surely the prospect of no agreement is real Yes, the prospect of no agreement is real in my view. I mean, I think it's actually a very real risk And I think the man is out of that. There may be a lack of understanding sometimes about about just how great a risk it is So go ahead. Sorry, paul copton shanadair and does domino not agree That regulatory alignment in whatever guys whatever name will win out at the end of the day Because britain wooden countenance And an unorderly a disorderly withdrawal They'll want an orderly withdrawal agreement And the implementation come transition deal is that not what is going to happen to god at the end of the day More questions? Yeah, there was another question over here. We could take a group to Be more than me Tom fairs member the institute very brief and it's to domic You made the point and we just won't have to listen with the tone The united kingdom has no intention of putting up borders But the internal consistency is if the united kingdom is outside the customs union, there will be borders Another third question here, maybe Thank you. Bobby mcdonough department of foreign affairs I just want to tell a very very brief story which concerns two of the panelists in which I think illustrates perfectly Why why the european union has provided the context for the peace process in northern ireland? Just after the executive was set up and martin mcginnis went into government with with with ian paisley Ian paisley contacted the department of foreign affairs in dublin an interesting channel to use And he said that he wanted president borosso to visit Belfast as soon as possible So I was the permanent representative from brosles and I phoned catrin day who was the secretary general and I conveyed this message And president borosso who was in washington at the time very kindly agreed to take a detour on the way back to brosles through belfast And you may remember the first photographs of martin mcginnis and in paisley laughing together What you may not all remember is that president borosso was in those photographs And so the the political wisdom of ian paisley was to see That in order to have a relaxed Photograph of the first minister and the deputy first minister. It was necessary to give it a european context Just while I have the microphone. I want to say to the third panelist to dominate grieve Thank you very much for being here in the first session this morning There were several references to the fact that with britain leaving the european union the contacts between irish and british politicians and civil servants Will inevitably decline but you have always taken a particular interest in ireland and your voice Is very welcome today and will continue to continue to be very important into the future Regulatory alignment. I mean my point is simply this I think that in reality It is unlikely that the uk will in practice depart very much from regulatory alignment if if it is granted to it Because I think the balance of self interest and the self the groups who will want maintain alignment Will be so persistent that in reality I begin to think there's nothing where we're going to want to change This is one of the irelands Of course, I understand that the border If if there is a hard border there has to be border controls although arguably the uk could simply say well That's your problem. We're not doing it on our side of the border. But I realize that that is It it's it's not a it's not a credible position But I will also say this I mean I'm not necessarily the best judge but kind enough to say I take an interest in irish matters both north and south of the border The border exists today I mean it is actually enforced in certain Sectors it is more than just a line. But fortunately it doesn't really affect locals very much at all Um, but I do have an anxiety the northern ireland context has been highlighted That if if there's a perception that the border is being overused and I can understand why the irish government Sees it as absolutely key issue in the entire negotiations because of iran's wider interests If it's overused then it does I think risk precipitating a backlash in what I call moderate unionist opinion north of the border I picked that up on the last time I had an opportunity for Talking to them in march now. It's gone away again. I think a little but that does trouble me in in the overall context of the future um, and and The other thing I'm just going to say is that you know ideas put forward that the the boundary can be down the irish sea and that the Northern ireland can someway be carved out our Absolute deal breaker it won't happen Just as I sometimes worry that in fact the ultimate reason why we won't reach any agreement with the EU on anything is because of Gibraltar Which I have to say to you. I think is a very real possibility Because if the Spanish government does seek to use Gibraltar in any way on sovereignty over the airport area For example, I can promise you there won't be a single person at Westminster who vote for it I can't testify on this because one of my One of my moments of Satisfaction was when prime minister Cameron asked me to mediate the Gibraltar issue discreetly between himself and mariano jacal from spain and at that time Most countries were in european union and so in fact we found the situation because in fact there was problems in the border As you know So it was not the free flow between Gibraltar and spain. It was very harmful and uh, okay We found this quickly. It was not even in the press, but a solution Was I think found now. Thank you best for your remarks regarding The european union uh the european commission action on Northern Ireland. I think that in fact is important to to a knowledge And I have great memories of that meeting with the machinists and in paisley In fact, I kept that photograph for very long in my office and more and sing sing it or you have There are two or three politicians laughing and they were very sincere It was a real moment of of um, congratulations And I think the european union through the peace program It was not just political support financial support the task force that we have created the european union is it's fair to say was always Helping a solution of this Irish issue and that should be recognized coming back to the customs union That will be my last point on this. I mean the difficulty the customs union is that you cannot be inside and outside at the same time You cannot be off pregnant It's very difficult now I have a great confidence in the lawyers Of the european union And also of britain and i'm i'm sure they are trying to find a conceptual arrangement for that But that can be in fact Extremely difficult my experience also the opinion is that sometimes when we cannot find the solution For a problem the best way to find the solution For the problem is to enlarge it That's why the opinion negotiates so often in terms of packages. So I will not exclude And that's why the remarks made today by birty are heard on that matter were quite interesting I do not exclude that of course um, then can be a A wider problem to solve not just about the the irish border So I think we have time for one more question maybe maybe two And down here A frank wall member of the institute It's said of brexit that we must hope for the best and prepare for the worst Uh, given that the worst would be a hard brexit And we should prepare for that It's it's obvious that ireland will suffer more than any other member state as a consequence of brexit I'm thinking in particular of the disruption to transport Of goods from from ireland to to mainland europe I'm thinking of irish agricultural exports to the uk Being affected by a cheap food policy being introduced there Wouldn't the commission Be prepared to show solidarity with ireland's dilemmas By putting forward a special package to help ireland address these kind of problems Neither of us speak for the commission any longer Um, that's a classic solution to a problem. I certainly wouldn't exclude it, but I think the The scale of the puns we're talking about with the with the hard brexit would go beyond again It's not only about money if money was the answer. It would be much easier to solve. I'm afraid so I'm not qualified to answer that We have a fair maybe a final question then from The very corner. Thank you gentlemen. Justin McCarthy Irish farmers journal I think we've heard a lot of uncertainty here today And that uncertainty has to be taken against the backdrop of of ireland's deep economic relationship with the uk I suppose from an agri food point of view as I was pointed out with if a president earlier There's none more exposed the uk has to import a hundred million euros worth of food every day 12 million of that comes from ireland I think given what we've heard today from possible no brexit right back to wto scenario And the uncertainty that there is in the uk I'd be interested if the panel failed that ireland should be looking to the european union and asking them What is the safety net if all this goes wrong? And they do crash out because there's going to be a lot of sectors very very heavily exposed to a potential Bad situation which nobody knows may and may may become the end result So is it time that ireland would ask your what is the alternative? What is the safety net? I'm also not I'm also not qualified I think the takeaway for me from this debate is that it would have been much simpler if there was no brexit I'm sure I'm sure the prime minister says that every morning when she Apparently she voted against it She did both against it. Yes. I'm sure she did Yeah, I have no I have no doubt at all the prime minister didn't wish this upon the country She sees it as her duty to try to carry it out in accordance with the wishes Expressed in the referendum and that in itself is a difficult enough conundrum to as was said earlier To ascertain what it is that people are really asking for I think we do we have one final question? this one And lisa witton from queen's university belfast I just had a question on citizenship equality of citizenship was referenced earlier as one of the principles underlying the good friday agreement with the brexit and carrying out of All of the implications of that there could be a reintroduction of tiered citizenship in northern ireland if arish citizenship Holders in in northern ireland have access to EU citizenship rights that british citizen holders don't so I wondered if You could make any comment on whether there would be an appetite in the uk government and from an EU perspective to Introduce some kind of special provisions to enable equality of citizenship to be Safeguarded in northern ireland for british citizen holders I find it's a very pertinent question But it's a very difficult question to answer If the united kingdom is as a constitutional entity leaving the european union Then the status obviously there will be an unusual feature which is that Any person resident in northern ireland has the opportunity to claim ireish citizenship if they wish And as a consequence of that to enjoy EU citizens rights But they will effectively be the EU citizens rights of a person living in a country outside of the european union And I don't really see any way around that Because otherwise We're moving to something really rather extraordinary and highly complicated and either we're carving northern ireland out of the united kingdom Which for political reasons as you'll be aware is not going to happen Or um I think it would create a very strange muddle and I don't really see how the rights Could be conferred. I mean it will it will undoubtedly give privileges to people Because uh an EU national an ireish citizen living in northern ireland who chooses to apply for an ireish passport Can then you know benefit from shengen when they're traveling around within the EU I mean I we don't know at the moment to what extent The benefits may be different and there may well be Things which they can tap into like uh, you know educational opportunities which are only available to EU nationals Irrespective of the fact that they happen to be living outside of the EU itself Because they have an EU passport a passport of an EU state and I think that's logically where we're going to end up Yeah From the european union law perspective is exactly as Dominic Rieb just said So if you are a european citizen, you have all the rights and duties of european citizen And you cannot be discriminated against in the european union Suddenly or when you are under some circumstances for instance, there is also issues of consular protection, but uh, but But to to to conceive two kind of let's say Orders inside north and island for me now speaking as a lawyer by training seems to me Quite difficult if if not impossible But in fact the principle of non-discrimination of the european union citizens is in fact Fundamental in the european union treatise by the way and and I think that that cannot that there there should be no exception Certainly to the european the european citizens irish citizens that are living in in north and island in the While they are of course in european union I think we've come to uh end of a very interesting station. Um I want to thank in particular uh, dominic for making the journey over here pleasure for Jose Manuel for making an even longer journey over here from naples You're both very welcome to dublin and uh, gatham. Thank you very much as well I think we've had a superb chat and very informative too. So I might ask you to Well, ladies and gentlemen, can I say to you that I don't know about yourselves, but I've had a fascinating morning We've heard things and been exposed to things That some of us might have thought a little bit about but nothing To the extent that we have been both entertained by our previous speakers and my four previous colleagues And just now as well as our young people from across the island um I would like on your behalf first and foremost to thank My colleague barry andrews and all his team in the Institute of international european affairs for the hard work and Sweat that's gone into this and I'd like also to thank our co-sponsors to lower firms law firm and fantasy firm And you the ordinary members as well. This has been a very significant event And I think we are indebted to those people who've actually organized it in my view Brexit paradoxically has begun But it hasn't yet started It's not unlike the Phenomenon that surrounded in 1939 the invasion of a far-off country Holland and the phony war that followed it for such a long time And I think central to this particular discussion today has been our relationship with the english We as irish people not with britain as such But with the english and I think we have to be very noted of the fact The fact that while we are conscious those of us who studied history That it was soviet blood And american dollars that enabled democracy to reappear in this continent But they would not have come Had there not been the incredible courage and tenacity Of the english people who held out the prospect of democracy on that island for two very long years And they are right to be so informed of their place in history And they are right to have that respected and recognized and I think sometimes we the irish Equally proud of the journey that we have traveled Don't fully understand the depth of feeling that they are entitled to have And therefore in the journey that we're now going to have with our english neighbors and relatives Along with the scots and the welsh, but there's far more of the english Had done the other two. It's an it's an uneven federal system if you like First and foremost have been very some very useful ideas that have been discussed here Former thysioc party her in particular talking about reinventing the structured relationships that we had for a period during the good friday agreement negotiations But also now that england Is leaving and i don't think there is any way back From that particular decision now that they are leaving I think we have to recognize that we have a responsibility Because the rest of the european union member states aren't particularly vexed about this particular matter as we've already heard So the responsibility falls to us in our many different ways To begin to forge a new kind of respect and relationship For a member state which may be leaving the european union But is certainly not leaving europe and is certainly going to be the same physical distance away from us across the rc that it is today That's a challenge that's not easy necessarily for us to to embrace But it is in our material interests for us to so do And in that respect i think we're going to have to learn to love the english in a way that perhaps We didn't show In the past because of the difficult times that we had with them over a long period of history And many of you have heard me articulate that before or listen to similar comments But i think they have been vindicated By what we've heard today It's up to us in ireland all the arraignment of diplomats and business people And intellectuals and trade unionists and the whole gamut Just begin to To look at what does it mean to have a relationship with the people Who we have been neighbors to since at least 1169 depending on what date you want to pick arbitrarily And fix as the starting point But it does go back that far And And i think the institute with your help can try to do that The other thing we have to think recognizes that while we as irish along with the other small countries Of the that make up the european union Have the comfort zone of being able to say we're irish and we're european The bigger countries germany france And england don't necessarily feel the need to say that they are european They don't have to they saved europe it's self-evident and they're proud They're proud of what they have achieved Some of those comments that i've made might fit uncomfortably with some of you But they're far less uncomfortable than a battered and weakened relationship that we will be of necessity forced to construct Across the irc if we don't begin to learn how to do it I want to thank all the organizers all the sponsors and everybody else for helping us to start this conversation brexit's gonna be with us in my humble opinion For at least another five to six structural years before we get beyond that particular point And we're on our own Yes, the commission will do what it can Yes, it'll if it's possible Do the sort of things that we want But if we don't know what we're asking for If we don't know why we want it and if we don't present a very coherent case to ensure that we get it We've only ourselves to blame. Thank you very much indeed