 thank you for being loyal subscribers and viewers of my videos and a special thanks to those of you who always comment and like my videos as well. All right guys, let's continue. As I was saying at the beginning of this video, this could be one of my most important videos that I'm making this year because there's a question many of you asked me and it's a question you probably wondered yourself, you know, with so many different opinions about Bitcoin right now, especially after the recent crash we've had, you know, there's so many different viewpoints, videos, articles, there's probably hundreds of thousands of YouTubers right now making videos about what's going to happen potentially next with Bitcoin. The same thing is true with other markets too, like stock markets and gold. And the question you're probably wondering is, well, how do you decide which interpretation, which analysis is correct and which one is wrong? How do you decide when you got conflicting views? You know, for example, there are videos being made right now, there are analysts who are saying, well, we're potentially in a bear market and we could see a lot lower prices on Bitcoin in the next few weeks and months. But of course, you have other chart analysts who are saying the exact opposite. Some are saying, no, this is just a correction in Bitcoin, it's not a bear market and we could see higher prices very soon. And of course, you have other analysts who are saying, well, you're going to see probably prices going sideways on Bitcoin for a while, and then a big move. For example, a big move to the downside or a big move to the upside. So the question is, with all these different viewpoints and opinions about Bitcoin and about other markets, how do you decide which one is right? Which one is wrong? Is there an objective way to actually look at this? And how can we avoid making mistakes? So I'm going to really focus on that in this video. And one thing I don't want this video to be is for me to tell you, well, my opinion is right. Everybody else is wrong. End of story. Goodbye, everyone. End of video. That doesn't make any sense. And also that would not really help you at all. It would actually make things perhaps more confusing. So guys, really in this video, I want to try and help you to be able to make decisions better when it comes to viewing different analyses, especially now when there's so much confusion about Bitcoin, you know, with the recent crash, and everybody is saying all kinds of different things. Again, you can listen to one analyst right now, and they're saying we're probably in a bad market. We could see even lower prices very soon. And there's some other analysts who are saying the exact opposite, saying, no, Bitcoin is probably going to go higher very soon. So again, when you have these conflicting views, how can you make the right decision? So let's begin with my first point, which I think is the easy one, which is that it's possible you might think that if an analyst has been correct many times in the past, that therefore he might be right the next time. So for example, you might be listening to your favorite chart analyst, and he or she might have been right about Bitcoin in the past. And you might assume that their analysis on Bitcoin right now is probably the right one because they've been right so many times in the past. Now look, listen, guys, I know you're intelligent and sophisticated people. I'm sure you realize that that is a logical fallacy. Okay, that is illogical thinking. Because as I'm sure you know, just because someone has been right in the past in their analysis, it does not necessarily follow they'll be right on their analysis the next time round. Okay, because the conclusion does not follow from the premises. It's as simple as that. So it's perfectly possible for an analyst to have been right many times in the past, but the next time they might be wrong about Bitcoin or the stock market. It's as simple as that. I'll give you an example. I remember in 2007, there was one analyst who correctly predicted the 2007-2008 market crash. And he was absolutely on the money. He nailed that prediction. The markets were going to crash very soon. He was absolutely right. The fact is, though, that analyst has been wrong ever since. So that's what I'm saying, guys, it's perfectly possible for someone, again, to be absolutely intelligent and smart and he or she might mean well. But the fact is it doesn't follow that just because they've been right in the past that necessarily they'll be right the next time round. Let's go to my second point now. My second point is about a deadly mistake which we all make because we're human. And it's a mistake I've made in the past and I'm hoping I won't make in the future. But I'm sure we've all done this, which is this. The biggest mistake that you might make is that you might choose either consciously or unconsciously someone's analysis because it fits your own perspective because maybe their analysis makes you feel good or maybe you might reject someone's opinion because it makes you feel uncomfortable. Psychologists call this confirmation bias and confirmation bias is one of the most deadly and irrational biases that we have as human beings. And as I'm sure you know, confirmation bias is the human tendency to believe something because we want to believe it. So it's the human tendency to reject some opinion or some information simply because it causes us to become uncomfortable because the information causes us pain and it's not something we like to hear. And by the way, guys, confirmation bias is not your fault. It's because our brains are programmed to think this way. In fact, it's a survival instinct. According to neuroscience, our brains are programmed to avoid pain. In fact, our brains will do anything to reject and avoid pain. Again, it's a survival mechanism. Unfortunately, it doesn't serve us well when it comes to analysis of the markets and the charts. Because again, what happens is when an analyst gives you some information, which makes you feel uncomfortable, what may happen is you might reject that analysis because it doesn't make you feel good. It makes you feel uncomfortable and you might actually feel some pain. For example, let's imagine that you bought Bitcoin at the worst possible time right before the reversal and right before the crash. If an analyst then says to you, well, I think we're in a bad market and we could see much lower prices on Bitcoin. What may happen is you may consciously or unconsciously reject that opinion simply because it causes you to feel pain because imagining that that analysis could be true and we could see lower prices simply causes us to feel pain. And therefore it might make us reject that opinion even if the opinion could be true. The exact opposite may be true as well. Maybe you missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a lower price. Maybe you want the price to go lower. Maybe you're bearish on Bitcoin because you want to see lower prices and buy Bitcoin cheaper. What might happen is that you might reject someone's opinion simply because they're bullish on Bitcoin. So in other words, anyone who gives you some information that says the price could go higher, what may happen is you might reject and eliminate that opinion from your mind simply because it causes you to feel pain. It makes you feel uncomfortable. So guys, really my point in this section is when you're listening to someone's analysis and when you feel yourself feeling uncomfortable and feeling some degree of pain, ask yourself, why is that? Is it because I don't want to believe that's true? Because that person's analysis could be correct. He or she may be wrong. But again, it's worth considering it just in case it might be true because as I'm sure you realize guys, anything can happen. And that means there's always a risk we could be wrong. And that's why it's important that we listen to all kinds of information, even information that may cause us to feel uncomfortable and causes us to feel pain. That brings me to my third point, which is again, realizing that anything can happen. In fact, as Mark Douglas says in his famous book, Trading in the Zone, he says in one chapter, one of the most fundamental truths of the markets is this, anything can happen, which means what? Which means you must be flexible on your expectations. So never allow yourself to get into this rigid mindset that only one possibility is true. Again, we have to constantly remind ourselves that anything can happen. And that means there is a significant risk that our original analysis, that our original interpretation of the chart may be wrong. That brings me to my fourth point, which I think is one of the most important points I want to mention in this video. Look, everyone has an opinion on Bitcoin. Everyone has an opinion on gold and the stock markets. But there's only one opinion that counts, right? That opinion is the price itself. So right now, there are hundreds of YouTubers, analysts, again, article writers on Bitcoin, okay? Hundreds of videos being made right now on Bitcoin with all kinds of different opinions about what Bitcoin may do or may not do next. But guys, aren't we forgetting something? There is actually one opinion that really matters, and that's the price's opinion, the opinion of Bitcoin. Doesn't Bitcoin's opinion matter? I think it matters a lot, right? So that means we need to focus on what the chart is telling us. And that means the way we can become more objective is, yes, look, everyone has an opinion on what Bitcoin may or may not do next. But again, what we have to do is look at the chart, look at the price action, and remember these three words, price Uber Alice, price over everything, as the Germans would say. So I've mentioned this before. It means simply that, look, you go on a chart and you ask yourself, what is the chart saying to me? And here's what I would do. I would draw on the chart my key levels. So to become more objective, draw on the chart your key levels. For example, where's your support? Where's your resistance? These would be like your key levels. If you use moving averages, that would also be a very important level. And here's an important question you need to ask yourself. So for example, let's say you've listened to someone's analysis, and that person is very bearish on Bitcoin. Maybe that person is expecting much lower prices. So here's what you do. You go on the chart and you ask yourself, okay, that person's opinion is quite bearish. But what would the chart have to do? What would the price have to do to show that that analysis is wrong? What level would the price of Bitcoin have to break to show that that analysis has been falsified or reduced in probability? And by the way, the reverse could be true as well. If someone's analysis is very bullish on Bitcoin, okay, you need to ask yourself what key level on the chart would Bitcoin have to break to show that that analysis is wrong or reduced in probability. Notice we're not asking what needs to happen to support our view to confirm our view because that's confirmation bias. What we're asking is the exact opposite. We're asking what needs to happen on the chart to falsify and indeed reduce the probability of our own analysis. I like this approach because it's more scientific. In fact, it's in accordance with the views of Karl Popper, who coined something called falsificationism. And essentially it's the scientific method because what we're asking is what needs to happen to disprove our analysis as opposed to confirming our analysis. I hope that makes sense. So pay attention to your key levels on the charts. And guys, the final point I want to say in this video is this. Do your best to get rid of this mentality of wanting certainty because that's impossible. You can never achieve certainty when it comes to chart analysis, as I'm sure you know already. And the reason is because the markets are uncertain and probabilistic. In fact, the next time you feel the temptation to want certainty, just remind yourself of what Richard Feynman, the famous physicist said about uncertainty. I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong. But I don't have to know an answer. I don't feel frightened by not knowing things. All right, guys. I hope this video helps. And guys, listen, the next time you find yourself being confused with lots of different conflicting viewpoints and opinions, just come back and watch this video. Cheers, guys. Bye now.