 Welcome everybody. I am delighted to see that we have a full room of experts and people with plenty of experience in government and business for this session on the global security outlook. Let me first say how happy I am to sit in the middle of what I think is a really outstanding group of panelists. We will be discussing the question of what's ahead. What is in the view of this group of panelists and in the view of all of you the biggest challenge lying ahead in 2017. But there are usually also opportunities. So if we can think of large opportunities for peace and progress and crisis management we should not forget those. So let me very briefly start by introducing my panelists and I'll do it in the order in which we will be speaking in just a moment. I'll start with Shirley and Jackson sitting over there. Shirley and Jackson has such a long list of professional and honorary functions that I need to be really selective. She was for a while the chairman of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the 1990s. She was the co-chair importantly of the US President's Intelligence Advisory Board during the Obama period. She has been since 1999 president of the Renzel Lear Polytechnic Institute which as you told me is the oldest institution of that kind in the United States and she has served on any number of other institutions including of course Brookings and the Smithsonian and so on and so forth. So it's probably hard to find a nuclear physicist by training with such broad political experience. To her right since my good friend Nicolas von Baumhardt has been an extremely successful CEO of one of Europe's leading insurance companies Munich Re. Munich Re has a global reach and Nicolas has led this company as chairman since for more than a decade since 2004. He is planning to step down now and we hope that we will see more of him in the discussion of Blacks wants and what's happening in the future because Munich Re has of course as a reinsurance company has spent a lot of time and energy thinking about how to define and how to measure risk and how to make sure we don't have too many unforeseen surprises. Now on my right somebody who in this Davos forum doesn't need much of an introduction C.P. Livny has been roughly speaking for the last 15 years but ending a couple of years ago a member of practically every Israeli cabinet serving as foreign minister for a number of years serving as minister of justice leader of the opposition minister of agriculture minister of regional cooperation in other words one of the most experienced Israeli politicians so welcome to you C.P. and and last but not least the president of the Japan International Cooperation Agency Professor Shinichi Kitaoka who has a PhD from the University of Tokyo who served as ambassador and deputy perm rep of Japan to the UN somebody with enormous global and political and academic experience professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies at the International University of Japan welcome to you sir also so let's take three four minutes each of you please to tell us what you think this year will bring in terms of more crisis more uncertainty or maybe opportunity and if you could if you could spend a moment on the question of why has it become so hard to try to predict things and I will just very briefly share with you my own experience each year at this moment beginning of the year we try very hard as we define the agenda for the Munich security cons we try very hard to ask every smart person we know in Germany in the US in Russia in Brussels everywhere to make sure we don't overlook something in early 2014 three years ago I tried very hard to make sure I was on top of things none of my smart friends was able to tell me that I should put on the agenda the problem the challenge of ISIL six months later every citizen in the western world knew that that was going to be the biggest challenge so why didn't we see that at the beginning at least we at the policy level that same moment in January we failed to see that what was happening in Ukraine was not a was not going to remain a local problem but it might actually explode into the single biggest security challenge for Europe for greater Europe in in more than two decades so this has been really extremely challenging so you're first surely tell us what you think well thank you very much for that introduction I think I'd like to talk about how I see the greatest challenges but embedded in them is in fact my answer to your question about why we don't foreshadow them better than we do and that has to do with the fact that because of the interconnectedness of of our systems and societies the main risks turn out to be global yes but the real point is that they are networked across domains and I'm going to come back to that and each global challenge impacts others and so for instance people talk about climate change and I'm not going to talk about climate change in the usual sense but think about what can influence national and global security for example vast resources of petroleum natural gas and mineral wealth is in the Arctic being made accessible by melting sea ice and so there's a likelihood that that will cause new geopolitical tensions and as you know Russia has the longest border in that region but then there are things that are linked in ways where if there's a triggering event the vulnerabilities are intersecting and so there can be cascading consequences now one that we know about and people talk a lot about because of the focus in cyber has to do with the distributed denial of service attacks because of the insertion of the mori virus through you know relatively really unprotected connected devices through the so called internet of things but then that same kind of attack disrupted Liberia's limited internet infrastructure and a mori attack on Deutsche Telekom in December of 2016 cut off phone and internet connection to 900,000 people I was a victim of that I think we were many of us were victims of things at least you admit them and then one that I particularly have a concern about having been the chair of a nuclear regulatory commission has to do with the compromise of critical infrastructure that might make use of digital industrial control systems so-called SCADA systems and I could go on including the fact that there were power outages in 2015 in Ukraine that were caused by apparently coordinated remote cyber attacks on three power stations so you know there's the point that if something happens you can take down a whole electrical grid but one that I actually talk about is one that one may not expect and that had to do with the earthquake subsequent tsunami and that triggered the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and caused a meltdown but in doing that it took out a huge amount of infrastructure and affected manufacturing not just in Japan but globally and supply change so if you think then to about the answer to your question about why we can't predict these things when you have human and man-made infrastructure and activity that intersects with things that are inherently unpredictable then those things allow us not to be able to be predictive but they also interestingly enough create opportunity for additional mischief so if I think then about your question I would say that what makes some of this difficult is the very pace of technological change where many of our policy frameworks our legal frameworks how we cooperate have not caught up with the fourth industrial revolution that each one of us and each can remain me a person a government or business operates under our own assumptions about globalization and the power of technology but through the lens of our domain and so we operate in our own domains and there has been although I think forums like this are very important uh more limited information exchange including sometimes intelligence and then some of these things are slow building and so part of the difficulty with climate change is just that but when it's upon us it's a crisis so that's my early response to your question thank you very much thank you very much so if you are tempted to ask a question or offer a comment don't forget it we'll get to all of you but only after completing this first round Nicholas from Bumhart yeah next thank you Wolfgang also for the introduction first of all I have to state I'm not a politician I'm a citizen and I may be a businessman and that's my perspective on the question I will sort of fill in on what you said Shirley first of all I would say and this is something you have heard here several times that the level of uncertainty is unprecedented and that is no question to us maybe when the iron curtain came down that was the moment of the world war two that is comparable but after world war two this is probably the epitome of it and that comes at a high cost to societies if you prepare for so many different scenarios as an enterprise we know it's costly it will go at the cost of the margin and certainly that goes for societies too it is not very efficient what we experience right now so we still have not really found a way to tackle the old issues I admire it call them demography we have shrinking societies we have proliferating societies both creating their own issues and at the same time you mentioned climate change both of course also triggering a wave of migration serious issue not tackled really at pandemics have been discussed here also in on the conference a very serious issue at the same time we have certainly among western societies a sort of a consequence of discrediting the society the value of those societies which makes it very difficult for politicians also to act the the trust sort of is in in danger in in question at least the values are being questioned inequality is the topic but only one mostly most say that is a consequence of globalization I don't share that view by the way and as a further consequence of course then you many things citizens that politics practically failed there is Germans always say there's an erosion of law because politics cannot act within the framework they were used to to tackle what they have to tackle and the further consequence is then sometimes lack of enforcement of what should be enforced and all that means to me that the tool set of politics to tackle what we have out there apparently it doesn't really work anymore when I come to the question of prediction and of course here a few more comfortable and admit it they it's it's about the interconnectedness and the complexities there's no question to us and we see it when we work for example with supply chains it's it's a real luckily we have the computing power today to do something about it but it's very very difficult to find out who is connected to what and what will that mean and in a world as fragile as today of course it doesn't take much to flip something you know that butterfly phenomenon now we have it it's so fragile it doesn't take much and the conflicts that we see if I stay in the political arena are multi-layer if you take serious example it may have started like an issue of rich and poor it turned into an issue of minority majority and turned to the issue of a religion it turned into a question of who is the hegemon in that area it turned to the proxy war between Russia maybe in the US and God knows what it's so many layers that the political kind of tool set doesn't seem to work and the another thing why it is so difficult to predict as I mentioned already that question of a single event can change everything is of course too many involved in the years before 89 it was a relatively clear set world practically two maybe three powers of relevance and you know who to call to solve the issue who to call today and last in that as regards prediction is the question of speed communication everything is so fast and you know that argument I'm always a little bit kind of worried or startled if politicians come with a famous black swan because the black swan practically is a real tale event that means very unlikely how to predict and that word is used so many times and this we know that in western austria there are many black swans but there are way too many right now in that discussion and I think if politics and could to some extent cautiously worded learn from indice in that regard in applying what we call integrated decent risk management that goes across the divisions of politics per country writing a risk report for example and then doing what you can prepare for because you know it might come then at least you are prepared for that what might come and there's still enough out there that you could not prepare for but if you don't do the first step you're in a miserable situation doesn't sound too encouraged now I'm a reinshoe and I'm the professionally deformed we'll go right over to you zippy you have a view that's not american and not european but from your part of the world yeah I think that we should understand that we know nothing about the future anymore that you're talking about in terms of black swans it's all over the place I'm looking for the same old familiar white swan now and things are changing and we need to understand it because I believe that we are judging things to come in ancient tools and everything is changing on one hand I feel like watching a movie in a fast forward manner a kind of a science fiction movie with all this technology that I'm not familiar with which is good because it makes our life easier and everything but it is changing everything it is changing our values it is changing where the power is you were talking about you said you are not a politician it's not that big deal to be a politician these days the power is in the people's hands it is changing the press where's the power is this the media or somebody who can text something in in facebook or tweet something and can change the world this is on one hand so it's like as I said a science fiction movie something from the future coming to us but on the other hand since you mentioned ISIS this is a religious war like a hundred of years ago with the same cruelty cutting heads off I mean you have this old technology and in the end they are cutting heads off and I think this that what happened is that the modern society didn't know how to handle this with this and in most places they discover that they that they are losing in a way ISIS succeeded in harming our own values because Europe discovered that what's happening in the Middle East it's not in the Middle East anymore and the refugees are not even your backyard it's inside your home and those leaders that try to make you know the same old democratic according to their values decision discover that they are being judged by the people as being naive as not taking care of their own people or their own citizens so our values are being questioned and this is the success of all these extremists that are against us because of who we are and are using high technology to spread hatred and what I said before we entered the room you know we need to understand that here in this room I said that for the first time in my life I feel all that we are here we are the establishment that young people in the world hate we are the privileged here we are those that in a way we need to understand what goes underneath the surface and it's in this chain I mean in an hour a new american president is going to enter office as nobody knows what's coming next and we need to understand it at first and not to try to to predict the unpredictable we need to understand that everything is unpredictable and another thing which is very important red lines are being crossed in terms of values in terms of when I said that on the other we have a technology but on the other hand we are going back also in terms of values liberal values are gone not not gone but but are being eroded and therefore when any leader I don't know is crossing a red line or said they they aren't said things or they are unacceptable in one part of the world it gives the legitimacy to another politician another lad in the other side of the world for him this is a line that already was crossed so for him it's becoming the obvious and this is the duration in which we are and I believe and I would end this that there's a need for the liberal moderate forces to unite and to give another vision it is our own and we are not going to change our values and we need to fight for them but we need to do it in a manner that creates interest for young people that for them it's something it's a new vision it's not the same old establishment preaching them or patronizing them but something that they can feel that this can be part of their identity that it's worldwide to fight for and last thing of course is cyber that that in terms of security it's not any more governments wars are not between governments and not even organizations like terrorist organization somebody can turn off the light in in another state just because he wants to and we are not ready for it in this happy note thank you zippy dr. kidoka your turn oh yes let me introduce uh uh to to hold up your introduction of me i had been a security advisor to prime minister mini over for a few years and then let me speak about the east and east agent situation which i think is most dangerous today and the one thing i can say is that there are something predictable and there's something unpredictable and then underlying factor was that if a country sovereign country or strongly organized group is determined to do something it's very difficult to stop from outside because of the advanced technology military technology in east asia i'd like to say that there is a delicate balance of security since 1971 when kissinger visited china and based on uh he just made a uh the theory that uh china is one because the peoples of both side of the streets believe china is one but nowadays three percent of the taiwanese people believe that they are chinese otherwise other people believe that they are taiwanese and also uh in uh uh since the end of the world war uh there was concern about the japan's revival as a military power so the u.s. japan security treaty was a kind of instrument to uh be a cap or the bottle and then other uh us just try to confine japan's autonomy and instead uh the they had the military alliance and then the uh u.s. had a basis military basis in japan which are very much advantageous to them like a sasebo yoko scum so forth okinawa uh as a result japan could concentrate on economic activities but uh never allowed was never allowed to be independent military power now uh in 1994 it was discovered that north korea was engaged in the military nuclear uh development and then no one believed that that that would continue to to today but actually uh almost all the specialists believed that they would collapse but now they have uh successfully developed nuclear weapons and that they are successfully making smaller so that they can shoot it then then they can almost successful in making a icbm and also the submarine launch launchable missiles is within their sight ok uh then uh chinese military power uh uh was uh quickly expanding uh remember that uh the 10 years ago it was smaller than japan uh the economic size is smaller than japan and then but uh along with the wonderful economic development its military power expanded expanded expanded now it's more than several times of japan and then uh in 2008 when the u.s. was facing the reamer shock and china became very confident and began to challenge our control of senkaku islands and then later on they are now expanding onto size china sea and then here comes mr trump saying that the uh questioning the relationship between japan and united states is a fair relation or not and certainly uh uh japan's you know the ratio percentage of japan's military budget against gdp was one of the lowest among major countries it's number one tenth or so so the uh there is uh it's not without reason that mr trump may question it uh but this is a delicate balance japan's basis american basis in japan is mainly to prepare for the korean peninsula crisis and then they have a privilege to make use of that the and also japan is uh uh uh the supporting by a host nation support which is bigger than south scoria or even germany but here mr trump and saying uh in his election campaign as far as i remember there was no american president or candidates who had ever not spoken about american values freedom democracy or whatever so the east asian prosperity and stability was supported not only by american supreme uh in particularly on neighbor power but also american commitment to the values of freedom it is in danger so that's why i believe uh that this is a most delicate uh uh timing uh for east asia thank you very much for for drawing our collective attention to the situation in east asia because here in europe we often tend to think somewhat eurocentric uh etc let me before we turn to all of you with your questions and comments uh but let me just take up that point and um and ask a question first of you and and and of the others um that is a variant on on this what do you think might be the first test for president trump who's going to be in office uh in a few minutes so to speak is it likely as some think that that first test could actually be in east asia that it could have maybe not directly to do with china but maybe with north korea or what do you think and what do you think uh where is the first real challenge going to come from at a moment when this administration is not even fully staffed probably doesn't even not even know which button to push to get the telephone line uh this is a dangerous moment so uh tell us what you think well it's all of the above i believe because i think one of the things that uh the new president will confront straight away and and but not in the way that that it has been popularized in the press but it is affected by that and that is the relationship with russia and the implications uh in the middle east secondly i do think uh not enough attention has been paid to asia particularly east asia and north korea is kind of the poster child of that but uh because of what has been articulated there's there are some serious questions about the us relationship with china and then then the rest of it falls in the black swan area i don't when people ask well what black swans will we face they're not black swans if we know what they are and um so so i think you know that would be what i would say but i do if i can just take one minute here sometimes we should look more carefully for signs and put them together so if we we talk about the surprise in ukraine but if one looks back in the energy arena and look at the history of russian ukrainian uh energy interactions there have been ways that the russians have been uh some would say yanking uh ukraine to keep it quote unquote in line we've seen it with basic energy supplies we've seen it and i talked about with the recent attacks but we also know the kind of ports that exist in ukraine and and so we should be able to put these things together and at least be on alert that doesn't mean we can prevent them and then if we look at the north korean and most people are concerned rightfully about the weapons the nuclear weapons but frankly 20 years ago when i would travel around there is a mindset about what confers power and prestige and it's a mindset particularly in developing and emerging nations and it has to do with some something that confers some military power and so there's always been this high degree of interest in nuclear weapons around the world but one could see it easily in north korea the real question becomes what are nations collectively willing to do about it and again that's where you got to look for the signs because people have interests and linkages to russia could be with regard to energy uh important minerals as well as business and economic ties more broadly so i think we have to understand and be a little more mindful about these interconnections as i said we also have to think about yes technology gives a lot of power to the individual and i call it the power of one but that reinforces the need both in an educational sense which is what i think about but also in terms of what our leaders say and do about the reaffirmation of fundamental values but then to live i could go on but i don't want to take too much thank you can i ask you to try to come up with brief answers we're quickly running out of time nicolas i have a short one only and i would like to take up some that zibi said and that's about the young and and the leadership question the vision question i think this is key too and it's very difficult and i really have to think hard about the personalities in political life who have both the integrity and the readiness in the sense of taking personal political risk to put something out exactly what they go for and explain it to the electorate and run the risk that they can't deliver and fail with that there's very few out there first of all you have to have the integrity that shrinks the group and two you have to have of course the acceptance in the political world small against the group again and then to have someone who really puts his head on a block literally and says i'm going for that but please rally behind my flag this is where we want to go i completely agree and it would be also nice if the vision would not be against something on somebody or group of people but for something and give something that people would feel that they can be united for something and this makes them good of they makes them feel good and not just hate somebody else and and and this i believe can be good news asking about the new president i think that the test would be whether he's willing to wait a little bit before making decisions now and i would like to ask the new president a question and i believe that this is the major question what makes america great again because his vision is let's make america great again so what does he believe makes america great again if this is and this relate to what you said if this is about the american values so it's great from my perspective having a strong america is very good america has a role in this world the us is very important so i would support this vision as long as all of us would understand what does it mean does it mean to be more involved does it mean to spread these values does it mean to work with more leadership other leaders to act against extremism all these things are yet unknown and therefore i hope that in the next few i don't know days weeks months we would discover and this can be a not a black swan but something that maybe would even surprise for better for for good against the nuclear north korea north korea is really really willing to be recognized as a nuclear power and also they are willing to get the support guarantee of the regime by the united states that they should not do that because if the they are recognized as a nuclear power then we you cannot stop the armament of south korea because there are so many leaders are proposing a nuclear armament uh it's quite natural with the guarantee of the protection from the united states that ambiguous if south korea goes to nuclear then it's unstoppable in japan to go to nuclear armament although to as of now there's almost no politician who is arguing for nuclear armament still but if the south korea becomes a nuclear country then it is quite possible for japan to be a nuclear country on south china sea uh the delicate place for the scabolo show near philippines and then u.s. should continue the operation of freedom to protect the freedom of navigation otherwise if they stop there even though china comes to consolidate their power control over the scabolo show then it means that their control over the south china sea becomes consolidated and then it's too late then there will be a domino by the philippines and the vietnam and so forth u.s. china is something that uh is a huge question mark now of course i mean and to hear the president coming here speaking about globalization here in davos the chinese president and this is the moment to open it up um we don't have a lot of time we because we are stuck with this one hour so i'm looking around who would like to ask the first question or make the first comment sir you have the floor please please please uh is there somebody with a microphone uh please be so kind and introduce yourself yes and tell us whether you ask your question of one member of the panel or of the entire panel i will do that okay my name is atoshi seike from k u university tokyo japan i have a question to professor kita oka i appreciate you mentioned about the east asian situation and my question is on the demography actually the change of demography which is one of the most predictable variables and uh if you look at the demography in east asia all countries i mean even china japan south korea taiwan are facing a serious aging population and low birth rate and theoretically you know uh population of these countries will be uh disappeared within several hundred years eventually so i'm just curious to know your view on to what extent these rapid shrinking population uh will have an impact on the you know uh regional security situation in the east asia thank you okay we collect a few and then we go back to the panel there's a question from the gentleman here yes scott asher from oxford university and artist international for tippy livening uh you mentioned the um problem of youth the problem is most governments in the world believe that young people especially young men are a problem and their response is to clobber youth now how what kinds of proposals exist to empower youth to let them commit to some kinds of values rather than going to places like isis for we find that with the defeat of fascism and communism um the quest for comfort and safety have become the principal values and young people are not willing to sacrifice as they once were for values such as freedom and democracy and in their place come groups that offer utopia and values that give adventure and glory thank you very much uh there is one more question here and then you are second to last and you're last and then we have to close the list i think please good afternoon uh andre pietri i'm a technology investor it's a question for miss jackson you talked about predictability uh i was at breakfast where artificial intelligence was seen as a way not to reduce costs but as a way for companies to have an ultimate competitive advantage which is to predict the future and reduce the risk how much is this used in connecting the famous data points that you mentioned which were appearing in syria which were appearing on crane and which appear for a long time in the south china sea thank you all right thank you very much you are next sir first bro here yes christian bayer from switzerland uh taking into account that uh nuclear technology is more and more accessible and will be more accessible what rational and which criteria do you think should be used to select the countries which can have the technology and the ones which where we should make sure they don't have access to the technology ah great question and the last question goes to the young lady here in the second row hello mahas tali i'm a global shaper from the hub of nissan france i have two quick questions first for you uh i would like to know who would present uh yemen in the munich security conference because no one is representing him in davis this year and the second question goes to um to you is there any chance that the the international community will make the relations between syria arabia and iran closer because i think um they have a very big role in the accessibility of the middle east thank you all right now uh philip how much time do we have left okay uh so i can give to each of you maximum of two or three minutes and please be disciplined that way we will conclude uh more or less in time surely would you like to start sure um well the let me talk to the ai question the artificial intelligence um yes companies can have uh competitive advantage but it's a question of how they use ai there are companies that use ai to connect the dots within their domains the question is how much do they use uh those capabilities to connect the dots outside those domains now i'm one who actually believes that you know one needs to do a little bit more risk mapping and i think uh you spoke of that and i think artificial intelligence and the cognitive systems uh actually have a pretty big and sophisticated role to play in that but we don't have time to talk about it on the the nuclear question about selecting countries that ought to have the technology i'll just say there is a global nuclear framework uh including the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and and other related treaties and agreements and again it's a question of the willingness of the global powers in a multi-polar world to actually uh help to to to make that framework work but it takes more time than we have thank you ecolos but actually i have not had a question to me so i'm a free in answering and i since i started on such a negative notice you might say i would like to end rather on a positive one and the one was the leadership question i think is a leadership moment for some hopefully second isn't it maybe part of your answer later to the question that came from that side of course it's about education education education so if we can raise the level of education then the positive side of science the positive side of technology can solve many of the issues we talk about right now and avoid that people can disturb as easily as apparently they can do and i must admit also we as businesses see a role for ourselves we are many of us here Davos for show global companies so even if politicians or their tools may not work all the time ours pretty much work and even so we are worried about many things Trump Brexit you a long list of things somehow we get around it so by doing that we may even support politics and we think i should take an active part in that as a multiplier within the companies which are global but also in trying to contribute our fair share to the solution of what we discuss can i before we go to you to be can i just go back one step and and and ask you to tell us whether from your point of view as the leader of a large company that does a lot probably spends a lot of time and energy and money on risk assessing risk assessment methods and hiring smart people to do that do you think that there is enough discussion between your type of companies for example and government institutions i mean i wish i had Federica Mogherini here from the EU in order to tell us whether the processes we use for example in the EU foreign policy area to assess risks uses the same sort of due diligence that you assess because in your case it's it's it's potentially about a lot of money so how do we a hand official although there is connection so your answer is yes yeah maybe we should organize a little briefing session for government and business is the one sentence only to that question with the german government we do discuss these questions i know and i know you want to go to the others but i do feel i have to answer the young lady over here yeah about the possibility of bringing saudi arabia and iran closer together i can't answer it i'm i'm going to leave it to the real politicians but i will say that universities have a unique role because we do represent and bring together the global village and i think it creates a place and a place of relative safety where where this kind of interaction and development of understanding can go on and that's precisely what we try to do i think on on this issue i think that the world needs to choose the international community need to choose i mean because it's not about the so this and iran and i said at the beginning we are facing also a religious order it's not the islamic world against the others it's also between extreme islamists and and and more moderates or so and and and this is something in a way when the world now relate to the situation as a matter of interest and the world's interest and abandoning some of the values that are important on on on these issues and i believe that the choice of the free world is not between the extreme shia organizations or the extreme sunna but to work together against the extreme the extremists and iran represents something which is really dangerous not just as an ideology plus all their attempts and aspiration to achieve nuclear weapons so this is something that need to be addressed and this is why i do believe that the role of the us is very important on this and the leadership of the us can be very important and can affect the entire region as long as also other state in the region would understand that there is a leadership here that would take position and not just you know trying to find out what is the interest of the us russia in the region and maybe split the map of interest between between them you know you you said i wish i had the answer to you but basically when you said education education education and you were asking about young people i start thinking about the pink floyd so we don't need no education this is the way young people feel and i i think that it is it is more than that and it's not only about governments their world the young people's world it's not in schools it's in the social networks and the social networks are being abused in order to spread hatred and we need to see how we are using these networks in order to spread or to to to have something which is different which is what we believe in as i said we shouldn't change our beliefs but we need to wrap it in a manner that tells them that it is about them not about us it's about their future and that we are willing to fight for it because what's happened during history is that you know young people are against the existing situation and now maybe this is an opportunity to see you see the trends they are going the wrong direction and it's going to to affect your life as well so let's fight together and but we need to to find a way to do it and to wrap it in a manner that it's appealing to them and as i said we saw maybe i'm too old for this but i think this is something which is needed it's an educational tool sorry it's an educational tool okay which we have to be before going to the professor on on iran let me give you a 30 second question if you if you could give us a really brief answer given what you just said about iran does president trump have a point when he talks about walking away from the iran deal or do you think we should stick to it well i think the deal was done but something is not in the deal because the deal refers just to the nuclear program the deal doesn't relate to what iran is doing in the region in different parts of the supporting terror doing this and that so in a way the well without i think the intention was not to give it permission to say okay let's speak about the nuclear stuff and you can do whatever whatever you want and now the world can say okay the deal was about your uh a nuclear stuff now we have we need to reach or to reach another deal or to stop you from spreading terror or financing terror in the region and what worries me is that about the deal that 10 years are nothing and you know it postponed but yet would what would be the day after the end of these 10 years and this is something that we need to address now okay one demography raised by professor seike this is a very very serious question but therefore a few years ago one two years ago professor uh prime minister abbe pointed out we should aim at 1.8 reproduction rate this is quite right we have to do all the effort following the case of the uh france financial support lifting the legal constraints and then having more migration uh all of those things should be done and to reach to 1.8 or so so there's a big difference between 1.2 and 1.8 that's one thing when young people education is more very important but still having a higher education without job is even worse job is more important job is not only a ways to get money but also it gives a meaning of life to those people this is very very very important and then the reason why despite of the economic stagnation japan society has been stable but the biggest reason was that employment was guaranteed but the other side of the community is that japan did not have a dynamic development of economy uh because of the uh rather uh because employment was rather strongly protected thirdly uh why nuclear was dangerous the who cares about the british nuclear or french nuclear as far as they are owned by the democratic countries where the leaders have to respond to the people's opinion that's less dangerous but suppose russia if russia uses some tactical nuclear weapons in the middle east will put in with his power i don't think so there might be a proof a proof a proof from the people so now now because of his hard lying policies it was supported by the people so it's dangerous for those countries russia is all russia already have the nuclear weapons but the the people in north korea partially not knowing the result but they are supporting the nuclear armament strongly when it comes to the the terrorist group having nuclear weapons this is disastrous this is worse than anything so it really depends which country may have access to nuclear weapon this is a one important thing maybe that's about it thank you very much i need to answer the question about yemen all i can tell you is that we will have a significant number of leaders and decision makers from the region from arab countries from iran also from israel and we will certainly not omit to talk about yemen we will have leaders from human rights watch and amnesty we will have the NGO community and others to talk about what's been going on there and we will of course have representatives of those countries that are fighting a kind of a proxy war in in in yemen and i'm happy if you can give me the address of of a responsible leader whom we should invite in addition to those many that we have already invited i'll be happy to do that ladies and gentlemen this takes us to the conclusion of our session we need to as i said we need to finish in time some of you may want to listen to henry kissinger who will be on a video link in just a few minutes as i understand and i would like to invite our audience to give a vote of thanks a round of applause to this wonderful panel thank you all very much