 What is going on, everybody? Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com where today, we're gonna use set for the Workday Charity Open that is at Weirfield Village, the first of two consecutive events at this course for the PGH Tour. We're gonna break things down from a DFS perspective. My name is Jim Sannis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gadilla. He is a managing editor for NumberFire. Brandon Bryson DeChambeau got one in the win column last week in fairly dominant fashion. How are you doing today? Good. I mean, it was nice to see Bryson finally win. I'm a little worked up just because I dread Memorial Week every year because of Weirfield and I feel like I say it probably strangely. It sounds very weird. We gotta do it two weeks in a row. Or does it sound weird? Weird. All right. It was a good podcast. I mean, we didn't get everything. Good career. I'm at Gadilla 13. Jeez. But yeah, I mean, Bryson just kind of broke everything. That's all I've known anyone's really been talking about. It's gonna lead to some changes. It'll be interesting to see how that works because it can't be like super quick implementation of changes, but time to go back for Bryson. People can't just magically get swole over three weeks like Bryson or three months like Bryson did. I mean, you'd be surprised at what a lot of people could do if they had as much of a regimen and the protein amount. I don't really ever talk about this, but I mean, you and I had a little bit of a back and forth. We didn't have a back and forth. You just misunderstood what I was pointing out. Yeah, but like, okay, so Bryson weighing what he does and being as active as he is should be drinking a lot of protein shakes. But he drinks like six per day. The amount of protein he needs to put on muscle. It's not about that. It's about protein shakes are disgusting and he probably hates like every second of every day. If you think protein shakes are disgusting, you need to upgrade your protein. No, I don't work out enough to justify having them. I mean, yeah, if you get the cheap stuff, it's terrible. It doesn't mix. It tastes like. I'm sure Bryson is skimping. Yeah, Bryson. I'm sure he's a frugal guy. Yeah. Yeah, Bryson's got Primo protein, so he's not worried about it. I mean, I don't know. I'm just saying. He would like just saying I would not enjoy that experience very much if I had to consume that much, that many protein shakes in a single day. That's where it takes the win. The breakfast aspect of like five eggs and like whatever amount of bacon it was, sounds amazing. And I'd love to like live that life, but the protein shake sounds hideous. No, don't eat before 1 p.m. You don't eat before like 7 p.m. So you're not even allowed to talk. Like, I don't even know why I would bother discussing Bryson because he's inevitably going to lead to terrible takes by Brandon. This is my fault. I have no one to blame for myself here. This is not even on you. It's on me. I keep so many of my takes just bottled up. You should. It's where they should be. Let's just keep them there. Keep them deep down. And let's talk about this Workday Charity Open. As mentioned, this is the first of back-to-back events at Weirfield Village. We have this one-off event this week and then the memorial is next weekend. So if you want course history, look back at the memorial. We will be discussing course history during the podcast throughout the day. They apparently are going to make alterations to the course between events. So it will not be exactly the same course, but pretty even to what we've seen here in the past. And what we'll see here again next week. Weirfield Village. There it is. 7,392 yards. It is a par 72. The top 65 plus ties make the cut out of a 155 golfers in the field. Again, cuts have been brutal ever since they came back from the COVID-19 layoff because there are so many guys in the field and we have to put a very heavy emphasis on just finding dudes who are going to make it through. Brandon, we are trying to identify, said dudes, which stats should we emphasize for Weirfield Village? Yeah. So I mean, we know that this is going to host two straight events. So they're going to try to mix it up a little bit. But I think there's only so much you can do with the golf course. The pin placements will be different. They're going to let the rough grow out for next week, which means you kind of can't really mow it for this week. So it's going to be kind of a tough rough. So you want to be able to hit fairways. But firstly, Weirfield overall is a course that's shown an emphasis on approach more than we typically see at the PGA Tour level, according to data from data golf. Around 39% of scoring is explained by approach compared to about 35% on the tours as an average putting is a bit depressed as well, down to about 32% from 36%. So this is good news for the heat check. And if anyone follows our advice ever, which I mean, hopefully they do sometimes, but not all the time. I think that this week is going to be something where the guys with great approach numbers do stand out as opposed to the putters. The fairways are typically easy to hit, but accuracy still matters. You can't be missing fairways whenever 70% of the drives in the field are hitting fairways, put you at a disadvantage. I think the bigger point still is that approach in greens regulation very, very important and even more important than being just super great off the tee. So my key stats this week are going to be stroke scan approach number one. As always, driving accuracy, actually stroke scan around the green is going to be important as well, birdie or better rate and putting on bent grass. So kind of the all around tee to green stuff, but I just don't want golfers who can't pick up strokes with their approach and can't hit fairways. So usually we're on the same page from a stats perspective, which leads us to targeting similar golfers. This week, we're not entirely on the same page from a stats perspective because we had different processes and I think yours is totally valid. Mine to explain it once again is I look at where golfers who finished well the previous year ranked in various stats for the full season on the PGA tour. The intent there is to find archetypes, which archetype of golfers does well at this course. And in 2019, the average ranking of the top 20 golfers for the full season, the PGA tour in distance was 82nd. They were 102nd in driving accuracy. In 2018, it was more extreme. The average ranking in distance was 61st. Average ranking in accuracy was 99th. So I did wind up going distance over accuracy, over good drive rate, because I mean it is a long course, but also just because we've seen a lot of times golfers in the past who have been long hitters have done well at this course. Like Kentley last year, 21st in distance, 160th in accuracy, 148th in good drive rate. Hideki was up there. He's not a super accurate guy. Mark Leishman was up there. Jordan Spieth, accuracy, not a forte by any means there either. So I did wind up going with driving distance, but I'm also not gonna like cross off anyone who isn't super long off the tee. So I think it's kind of a blend for me. Like the main default stat for me is going to be distance. But if there's a guy who is $8,700, who is not super long off the tee, but does have accuracy, like hypothetically, Emiliano Grillo, like I could justify targeting him because accuracy, like you said, does matter. So I'm gonna go distance by default, but I'm not gonna necessarily cross guys off if they're not super long, if that makes sense. Yeah, I mean, you can never really go wrong with guys who are long. It's hardly ever a detriment to be long, unless you have some of those pricing moments and can't figure out why the club's going as long, or as long as it did. But I think what's still most important to me is that any off the tee stats just don't matter as much as approach play. Just no matter how you slice it. So I might be emphasizing accuracy compared to distance, but they both are very much less important than approach. And I think that's the number one. We need greens and regulation. We need guys who can score. That does come from, you can't be terrible off the tee, but that mostly comes from pin seeking with great approach and actually making your putts. And we have some of the best approach players in the world in this field. So it should be a fun conversation for today. We'll take a look back at past events at Weirfield Village in just one second. But first, the next UFC event coming up on Saturday, it's at Fight Island. And Fandle is celebrating the highly anticipated action with one of its biggest MMA contests yet. For just $8.88, enter Fandle's $200,000 Saturday UFC Super Octagon and compete for your share of the $200,000 prize pool, including a $50,000 first place prize. Take your pick of all the top fighters and follow along using Fandle's live scoring as the fight's unfold. Someone is gonna win at least a share of $50,000 on Saturday and it might just be you for more details. Visit Fandle.com or download the Fandle app today. Eligibility restrictions apply while the podcast on UFC DFS tomorrow with Austin's swam of number fire breaking down his favorite plays from a DFS perspective for Fight Island. It's like saying Fight Island. We need a Gulf Island or Gulf on Fight Island. I mean, there are a few islands in play. It would be very nice just from a safety standpoint if they found an island and just kind of played. I still think I wanna see Bryson fight someone on Fight Island. I think that's the goal here eventually. But let's move into past history in Weirfield Village and check out golfers who have done well here in the past and Brandon, a heat check favorite has done well here. And I think that the way I can tell how I've done in DFS in past years at different events is did Patrick Cantley do well? If the answer is yes, I probably had a decent week. If not, probably not. So I'm guessing things have gone well for me at the Memorial in the past because Patrick Cantley at Weirfield Village tends to perform very well. Yeah, I mean, look, we're talking past history at Weirfield. Patrick Cantley has to be someone we talk about. He hasn't played here like a thousand times which is sometimes what we get with course history. But he's played here three times. So not a lot, but he's dominated. 35th, fourth and first in his three starts. He did that by gaining 7.5, 12.1 and 14.6 strokes gained T-degree, 2.9, 10.2 and 7.4 with his approach play. You can't really do a whole lot better than that on a specific course. According to Fantasy National, he's gained strokes. T-degree and 11 of those 12 rounds here, that's the highest rate of any golfer in the field at this course and really only six others are above even 75%. Justin Rose did it in 20 of 22. So about 91%. So I mean, he's the only one who's really even above 85%. So Cantley's T-degree in play here has been pretty much flawless. He came back and was 11th at the Travelers which is his only PGA Tour start since the layoff. But a little bit of a problem there. Gaining just 2.2 strokes T-degree and really saved himself with the putter, gaining 5.1. However, we've talked about it a little bit. I think, especially I've talked about it. I don't actually know where you land on this but I don't care a ton about this super recent sample. We know that Patrick Cantley statistically is a top five golfer in the world. However, you wanna slice it. He is one of the few golfers who's great at all four T-degree or strokes gain stats. So I'm gonna side with the long-term form, the great track record at Muir Field and I'm in on Patrick Cantley at 11.7 on FanDuel. What about you? I'm in on him. The dilemma I have is whether I rank him above Justin Thomas because Justin Thomas is 12,000, Cantley 11.7 and you can fit in both kind of like we had with Bryson and Webb last week. You can make that happen and I will make that happen at times but that's no fun to say both. So I should pick between the two and it's tough because Thomas leads the field and approach the past 50 rounds. He's a tiny baby bit longer than Cantley. Also has good course history here, a fourth in 2017, eighth in 2018 miscut last year but he's shown that he can do well at this course in the past. The differentiator could be the bentgrass putting because Cantley is better there than JT and maybe that's a way to go with the tiebreaker but I kind of view the long-term form on JT being a hair above Cantley. So as much as I love Cantley, I may still rank JT a little bit higher but I think that those two to me are a tier above the field from the way I'm viewing them. So I think it's JT1A, Cantley 1B and I would not fight anyone who switched those two but I do think that they are the top two for me. How are you viewing Cantley specifically relative to Justin Thomas? I mean, it's always hard to go against Justin Thomas because he's almost always the best T-degree golfer in a field, the issue is the putter and all he needs to do is make some putts and he can run away with pretty much any event and we've seen him do that. The consistency is more of the concern. With Patrick Cantley, I mean, he's super consistent. He's almost as good T-degree as Justin Thomas so I have Cantley as the 1A if... Well, let me say this. I have Cantley over Justin Thomas by just a bit, especially with the $300 savings but I actually kind of prefer someone else price relative to both of those guys and I might start my lineups a little bit lower with Standard Shuffle this week. Yeah, I think that's something that I'll be discussing later on too where I'm okay bypassing these top five and the top five is through Hideki Matsuyama, bypassing those top five, going more balanced, I'm okay with that but I also think that if I'm going with the studs, I think it's hard to turn down Cantley. JT is right there though but Cantley, I really can't put up a good argument against him I think is the way that I phrase that and he checks every box, which is hard to do generally. Yeah, I mean, you can't really go wrong with any of the top six. So any golfer above 11,000 on FanDuel, I think that they're all in play this week to varying degrees but this is not like last week when we were advocating trying to jam in Bryson and Webb. They were really the only two studs. Right. That's not the case this week. Yeah, I think that, again, I do view JT and Cantley above Rahm and Kepka and Hideki but I'm also okay doing what you said, bypassing everyone and going the more balanced approach. I think that's a very in play for this week. Let's move on to Ricky Fowler, Brandon, because Fowler kind of showed some life last week. He had a couple of miscuts and then had a 12th place finish last week and had a really good first couple of days and Fowler gained 2.6 strokes in approach. That is his most since the waste management which was earlier this year. So it's just in time for Fowler bouncing back to play at a really good course for him. Ricky Fowler has played Moirfield 10 times, pair of runner-ups here. One was in 2010, long time ago but the other one came in 2017. Since then Fowler has finished eighth and 14th. Last year gained 3.1 strokes in approach and he gained a 6.5 tee to green the year before that. So the form is getting better and history is good. Those are positives for Ricky Fowler. The problem is that he's surrounded by a bunch of really enticing options. He is 500 less than Xander Schoffelay. He is 200 less than Vector Hovland. Justin Rose is $100 more. We saw him rebound a couple weeks ago. So Ricky is someone I am monitoring but I'm not in enough to use him over those other golfers. Where do you sit with Ricky Fowler Brandon after an intriguing week last week? I think I'm out. If you go back and look at his finishes which is not really how I analyze golf at all but he's been like top 20, top 10 or cut and there's really been no, not a whole lot of in between for Ricky Fowler and if you go back through his data, the approach play has been above average. So he's gaining strokes with approach but it's like 2.6 last week in a weak field, 0.9, 0.3 at the two tougher events he played since the break, 1.1, 0.6 and then off the tee he's pretty neutral. So if you look at the ball striking specifically he just hasn't done a lot to separate himself. We know that Ricky Fowler is one of the best putters on the planet but he hasn't really even had any spike weeks since the return. I think overall Fowler is just overpriced and as much as I love Ricky Fowler I really don't have a, I don't really feel the need to play him this week. Yeah, I think that's where I'm at too, specifically because of where he's, where his salary winds up just because it's a good tier and if I'm gonna go balanced like I'd rather spend down for someone like Joaquin Nieman or spend up for Havland, Zander. So Fowler worth monitoring, see if you can keep that approach play up but not enough where I can buy in yet. And I get worth discussing here too because of his plus history at this course but not enough for us to buy in. So let's talk about a couple of cheaper golfers here Brandon with plus history at Weirfield. One of them is Jason Duffner, Duffner $8,200 really low salary. What do you see with him in past events here at this course? I see $8,200 for Duffner coming off a missed cut in which he lost strokes everywhere but off the tee. I know I'm not putting stock into a two round sample. I have learned my lesson by now but when Duffner is going to a course where he's thrived in the past, I think that we should look at him a little bit closer. At Weirfield he's finished 19th, 24th, 33rd, first cut and seventh. He won here in 2017 despite losing strokes with the putter. That's because he gained 10.7 with approach, 16 and a half overall tee to green. Victor Hovland could probably gain 16 and a half strokes tee to green, even losing strokes. Come on, come on, Vic. I want you to get one but over 22 rounds at Weirfield, Duffner's average 2.1 strokes, tee to green, which is third in the field behind only Patrick Cantley at 2.9 and Justin Rose at 2.2. He's 17th in approach over the past 50 rounds in this field. I think that if we were really trying to find value Duffner, someone to put on the list, I don't love the play. He might actually be a little bit popular because of the course form. Any thoughts popping up with Duffner? Not really. I think it's partly because I am emphasizing distance a bit and Duffner's not someone who's gonna grade out super well there. And you could say that he's done well here in the past despite not having that. That could be a very easy rebuttal but I think that there are some guys who are not negatives there, who are also in a similar salary range and in some instances even cheaper than Jason Duffner. So I don't need to use Jason Duffner and settle for okay form. I can go for someone, like maybe go back to Cameron Tringoli once again this week. He's $8,200. Some you'll know actually kind of was interesting coming off of that mandatory military service. He's had good approach numbers the past few events. So I spent some time digging into some you'll know. Sebastian Munoz is $8,000. So there are actually golfers in the low $8,000, high $7,000 range who I don't hate, which is not very normal for me. And I think that I'd rather go with their direction because those guys I listed all at least have some distance whereas Duffner really doesn't. So I think if I do wind up going down there I'm gonna gravitate towards those other names I listed rather than Duffner just because I like the pop they bring to the table over what he has. Yeah, so I mean, I think ultimately I'm gonna go a little bit more balanced this week because this field drops off pretty quickly. I do, on the same note, I think that there are some golfers who are just underpriced. Duffner, I'm not saying he's underpriced. I'm really not gonna use him a ton, but we do have options down here. And so I might experiment with some, like a balanced lineup with five golfers and then one sort of punt play because I do think that there are golfers worth targeting down here, specifically Sebastian Munoz at $8,000. Carlos Ortiz is $7,600. I think he's missed two of the three cuts but he's gained an approach in all of those. So he's interesting. I think that maybe gone are the days where you try to get like three studs and three values in the same lineup. So I know I'm a little bit rambly here, but I think that this is actually an intriguing range so long as you minimize your exposure and actually consider maybe just having some balance and then one cheap option and see what happens. Yeah, I think I'm on board with that too. I think it's especially with the way that the different salary tier shape up, it's kind of similar to what you said last week where there wasn't a big gap between the low 9,000 range and the like upper 8,000 range or so. I don't think there's a huge gap between the upper 8,000 range and the lower 8,000 range this week. So I am okay taking the solo punch option and going balanced in there. I think that is something I would also be intrigued about doing for this week. Let's talk about Kevin Strylman Brandon because Strylman coming off a runner up two weeks ago, he gained 4.4 strokes in approach and this is a course specifically where Strylman has gone nuts in that department recently. Overall, Strylman has three top 10s at Muirfield. Two of those have come in the past four years and last year when Strylman finished fourth, he gained 9.3 strokes on approach alone. We know that he can do that because he's a very good approach player. Finished 44th the year before that, but that was despite gaining five strokes in approach in that one. So Strylman's not particularly long off the tee and he was struggling before that runner up finish that he had recently, but is there enough here for you to take a run at Strylman at $9,600? I mean, again, I don't like to analyze things based on finishes, but have you seen his like recent performances? It's a lot of cuts. Yeah, so second last week after three cuts, 42nd or 47th, second cut, 45th cut, cut, cut. There's two cuts, a fourth and three missed cuts. All of it was three top fives in the past eight or so. That's all I heard. So he can miss some cuts. That's so tough because we need to emphasize making cuts. And I firmly believe that we should be looking at strokes gain, like tee to green as opposed to missed cuts. For him, it's been okay, but he's hovering around like the field average, which is not enough. I think it's a big risk. I think it's an unnecessary risk. I won't talk anyone out of it, but I don't think that I'm going to handcuff a lot of my lineups with Kevin Strylman. He might be a better bet, maybe for a top 10, but I don't think I'm gonna play Strylman. I think if I'm gonna go with that archetype, I'm gonna jump down or jump up. So like if I wanna go at someone who can do really well tee to green, but could just absolutely bomb a lineup, I'm gonna jump down to like Corey Connors, Joel Damon, who are in my eyes the same golfer. So I would jump down to them or jump up to Joachim Neiman. So I think that I can get a Strylman type without using Strylman himself and at a different salary tier. So although I think that Strylman is interesting, he's not someone I'm probably gonna wind up using a whole lot this week. I just wanted to bring him up because of the positive course history, but I think that you can get a Strylman-esque golfer for a cheaper salary and I am okay taking that discount. Yeah, I mean, we have Damon, Corey Connors, Harold Varner, and Jason Kochrak between 91 and 93. I'm not in on Kochrak again yet, still not back yet. 91, that's below the Kochrak threshold. Yeah, he's below 93. Although I looked it up and he's very rarely $9,300. No, he's always 93, don't lie to me. Well, he's either, he's been either like 10-1 or 9-1 lately. Well, it's a lie. You have false data, he's always $9,300, and I refuse to believe the lies coming out of your mouth. But I do think that the low 9,000 range is interesting and I'd rather not take that risk with Strylman. I'd rather take that risk while spending less salary if I'm gonna do it. So let's move on here to current form. Either doing really well or not so well recently. And John Rom might actually fit in both buckets weirdly. So let's talk about John Rom. You're gonna talk about Rom, I'm gonna talk about Kepka. We could talk about these top fives as a whole. So let's start things off here with Rom. What have you seen with him recently? Yeah, it's really interesting because we have to hit on the high-end golfers and we talked about Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlet already kind of glossed over John Rom at 11-8. So I think that we really should talk about him as the second most expensive golfer in the field behind only Justin Thomas. Rom's form is pretty interesting. He's been cut at the Charles Schwab when he lost 4.2 strokes putting. I got back on him the following week for the heritage. He finished 33rd, which is fine, but not what you want from someone who cost us a lot of salary on Fandall. There he gained 2.9 strokes T-to-Green, which is fine, it's not great. At the Travelers, Rom finished 37th, losing 4.3 strokes with his approach, gaining 4.9 back around the Greens, which is really not good. I mean, it's not, it's gonna look good T-to-Green, but the approach number is far more important and it's not that I, again, I'm not putting stock into that. It's just he might not be there as much as someone like Justin Thomas or anyone else we wanna buy in for the short sample. If I looked at that particular sample for a lower salary, less proven golfer, I'd be like, I don't really see it. I don't think that he's there, but this is John Rom. We know that the long-term form is very good. We know that he's sixth in this field off the tee. 27th in approach, 31st in distance, and 28th in fairways gained. So he could really set up well for Muirfield. He did miss the cut here back in 2017, but I don't care about that at all. He's got a bank grasp of Poa. I mean, if you wanna talk to me about Kepka and then we can kind of surf back, all right, let's do that. I'm kind of in on John Rom though. So on a similar vein where it can be, it recently has been tough to predict John Rom. It's always tough to predict Brooks Kepka. It's probably a futile effort to try to predict Brooks Kepka, but he was mashing it two weeks ago and with distance on at least my list this weekend, I think he's worth discussing. What? It's an always sunny joke, which you don't watch enough to get. I'm never gonna understand it. All right. Anyway, in that one last week or two weeks ago, Kepka gained 6.9, there you go. Strokes off the tee. That was the most he has had in a single event since the open last year where he finished fourth. Kepka just neutralized approach, but as we saw last week with Bryson, if you just absolutely obliterate the ball, there's not as much of a need for you to be good with your approach play. Kepka, he's been off two weeks after his caddy tested positive for COVID, but distance matters to me this week. Kepka is a good bedgrass putter and he's a very reasonable $11,500. So does Kepka do anything for you here, Brandon? And I guess you can look at Rom too. I think that they're not on the same level. I think Rom is a much easier justification. Rom has actually been a really good putter. Although as much as I love John Rom, his approach numbers aren't amazing, hardly ever. He does a lot of that with the off the tee play, but Kepka's approach plays just been very rough over 2020. According to data golf, they have like a field adjusted stroke scan numbers and Kepka's actually lost an approach in 2020, which is not what you wanna see. He's actually been as good tee to green as Lucas Glover. I mean, it's not a fair comparison because Lucas Glover is the best golfer on the planet. Okay, so Brooks has been worse tee to green than Jim Furick. Again. Adam Hadwin. Again. I mean, so. Finally a bad golfer in that group. Well, he's just above Luke List. Okay. So he's outperforming the world's best golfer. You did it, you got it. You did it. Wait, is Luke List a bad golfer now? No, he's not a bad golfer, but I'm not gonna put him into the same stratus here as our board Lucas Glover. No, Jim Furick was a joke. So Brooks can win. We know that. But if you're making that an actual case based on any sort of data or the larger sample, he doesn't really stand up to John Rom. I don't know if he stands up to even Hideki right now. So I think. See, I think I disagree with that because I think that if I'm using Brooks, it's not in cash gains, it's in a tournament. So it's strictly a tournament discussion. And between Brooks and Hideki, who has the better odds to be a can't miss golfer for the weekend? To me, it's Brooks. So I'd rather use Brooks and Hideki by a pretty wide margin. I can see that Hideki's been quite consistent. I know that, look, if you're talking tournament, you're probably talking, you want to win. Hideki has higher. I want the potential for a win. Yeah, I think Hideki always has the potential to win. Yeah. Converting on the wins is another thing. But if you're fine burning a lineup because you have $11,500 and you love your other five and you're playing for a tournament, plug in Brooks over Hideki, sure. It could go terribly. All I'm saying is based on what I see from him and even the long-term form, like just the long-term approach is not good. And he's just someone who can be amazing when he's dialed in, but when he's not, he's fine just not being dialed in and you don't want to spend that kind of salary on him. So tournament only. You don't think that Brooks is going to get out for the workday charity open? That's kind of what I've been dancing around. He's probably just trying to work on some stuff. So whereas I think Hideki would love to win. I think like from a range of outcomes perspective, like the long tail on Brooks is a lot higher than Hideki. And that's why I wind up there. I think if we're talking from a predictability perspective, I'd rather go wrong. And I mentioned earlier, I'd rather have JT in Cantley. But I think I would put Brooks ahead of Hideki by a decent margin personally. I don't know what a long tail is. I think I can kind of like fall in. It's a weird like news or like TV consumption thing. And I don't want to discuss it. It's a very complex. It's not complex. It's just very stupid to explain on a fantasy golf podcast. So search for the long tail. So for you, you are JT, Cantley, Rom, Brooks, Hideki. Oh, you still have Rom above Brooks? Yeah. And you are the same except Cantley above JT and Hideki above Brooks? Yeah. I still think Hideki is viable because of the safety. Although again, I prefer Xander to Hideki, Brooks, possibly even Rom for the price difference. I agree with that as well. So maybe we'll talk about Xander later. Do you have any player picks? Yeah, you do. Okay, cool. So we'll talk about him later, but I agree with that. You know it's about an 85% chance I'm talking about Xander. Well, it's either you or me. So that's the way it goes. Let's talk about Cam Champ, because Brandon, I am emphasizing distance this week, but you are the person to decide to write up Cameron Champ's current form, $9,600, what have you seen with Cameron Champ recently? We've kind of seen the best from what Cam Champ can offer and his two starts since the hiatus. Champ's finished 14th at the Charles Schwab, 12th at the Rocket Mortgage. He gained an average five strokes, T to green in each, and he's had some positive putting. I'll clarify, it's nothing that's carried him to those finishes, but it's not as bad as what we typically see from someone like Cam Champ. If you kind of go back through his event by event log, his putting is a little bit all or nothing. He's kind of gaining three strokes, losing three strokes. Of course there's some stuff in between, but if you're looking for upside, you do need some volatility as a putter where someone can reach a bit of a high end. So if he can gain four strokes and be really good T to green, that's what you need to do. We can talk about Bryson all we want, but Bryson led the field in strokes game putting. I know that he had a lot of shot link issues, but I haven't seen anything that it affected his putting. So if you lead the field in strokes game putting, it's gonna be good. I definitely would never, ever, ever predict Cam Champ to lead a field in putting, but he's kind of shown some reason to believe in a high end performance. Unfortunately, he's been bad on bent grass in his career, but the Charles Schwab was on bent grass and he gained 2.8 strokes putting there. He's a field leader in distance, obviously, but he's a hundred and second in fairways game, so he doesn't really fit exactly what I'm looking for. I want accuracy. Missed the cut here a year ago with a negative game everywhere except off the tee, but we're talking upside. If we are talking upside, I think Cam Champ still works here. I don't think that he's a super safe pick after two straight top 15s, but I do have a lot of interest in Cam Champ at 96, so what do you see from him? Yeah, I think that the upside that you mentioned is intriguing and as mentioned, I am emphasizing distance this week, so that should put me on Cam Champ who literally leads the field in distance over the past 50 rounds. So that should put me on Cam Champ. I said that. I know, I wasn't listening. I was pulling up data so I could talk to you about Champ. I was being productive. I didn't know, but it's funny. I was being productive. Anyway, did you? Okay, whatever. Anyway, shh, shh, shh, shh, shh, shh. Anyway, so in theory, I'm in on Cam Champ. The issue that I run into is that if I'm gonna use him, it needs to be in a tournament because like you said, he could easily lose three strokes putting on Thursday and just be out of the running completely. And if I'm going tournament focused, I want to use Cameran Champ when he's not super popular and right now he's tied for fifth in fan share tags. So the odds that Cameran Champ winds up being not popular or low and that bugs me. So I think that I wanna be in on Cameran Champ but I wanna be on him specifically when he's not gonna be a popular pick and I'm not entirely sure that's going to be this week. So I was initially in on Champ until I pulled up the fan share tags. Now I'm okay jumping ship for this week. So monitoring, but hopefully in a couple of weeks I can get in on him without the issue. Like if he misses the cut this week and is in the field next week, then it can be a Cam Champ week. How about that? Sure, his price will probably drop. I haven't talked about this but I think that the real plan next week is gonna be rock string golfers who were in this field and didn't do well and people just forget about them. That was what I was hoping about the Champ. Yeah, I mean, so if Cameran Champ is popular I think that we can kind of downplay it and just kind of let him be somebody else's problem because he's about a coin flip to make the cut. The difference in case anyone's still new to golf and is like, well Bryson won and was like, I think 46% on 46% what? That is high. Yeah, I think that's what it was on Fandall but the difference is Bryson had about an 85% chance to make the cut and like a... So in CamCamp doesn't have an 85% chance to make the cut? No, I haven't met at 49.8, like I said a coin flip so that's the key difference. Owners, popularity matters whenever golfers miss the cut. Yep, so probably not a CamCamp week yet but hopefully he misses the cut this week. I mean, not for him, I would love for him to be happy and have success and get that money but for our purposes, we can buy it next week. Let's talk about Ryan Armour because Armour, riding the streak back-to-back top 10 finishes, he has been sixth and fourth in the past two events and just $9,000 but still having a hard time buying in. The outing last week for Armour was legit. He gained 6.7 strokes, cheated green, gained 5.3 on approach and that's good but the sixth place finished the week before was almost exclusively because he gained 7.2 strokes putting and Armour is a terrible bentgrass putter so I'm not gonna expect him to gain 7.2 putting anytime in the near future. Armour, 73rd in the field and approached the past 50 rounds, I'm emphasizing distance and he doesn't do that so despite the back-to-back top 10s and a $9,000 salary, I am still having a hard time buying into Ryan Armour. Is he going to wind up on your list this week, Brandon? No, I don't think so. I want to value the long-term form over the short-term. Seeing two straight top six finishes should probably, I can't imagine Ryan Armour ever being someone people flock to to play before the salary. Not this week but I have previous, he's also, he's got nine tags on fan shirts so you know it's a decent number. I don't know how that ranks currently. Tied for 20 seconds. Okay, so I think really with the way that the fields are currently they're only about, they're only ever going to be about five golfers whose draft percentages really matter. So he's not gonna get to that point. The bigger point is that I don't really wanna roster someone who's got like a slightly negative ball striking profile. All these missed cuts, I'm not gonna play him. Yep, me neither. So let's move on to the bookmaker odds for the Workday Charity Open. Justin Thomas, the favorite right now at Fan Dual Sports Book, he's 12 to one. Then we have a cluster all around 15 to one. Those guys are John, Rahm and Patrick Cantley, both right at 15 to one. Brooks Kepke, 16 to one. Hideki Matsuyama, 17 to one. Xander Shafley, 21 to one. Followed by Victor Hovin at 22 to one. Then we get to Justin Rose at 26 to one. Colin Mora-Kawa and Ricky Fowler, round at the top group there at 33 to one. We talked about the top five. So let's look at that second group. So basically Xander Shafley at $11,200 on down. Who stands out to you, Brandon, is giving you the best odds to make a run at those top five golfers made DFS perspective? Xander, pretty easily. I have him number one on my stats model. I have him fourth in third in win odds, I think. Yeah, third. He's been so good with his tee to green play. And he's a solid putter as well. He's one of the few golfers who is noteworthy good in all four categories. He has good bentgrass putting splits. He's 27 there. So I think that Xander is a great play this week. And I definitely want to get Patrick Cantlay. I want to get some Justin Thomas, although I might miss out on Justin Thomas. I want to take a stab at John Rom, but if I'm building one lineup in spoiler alert for our head to head, I might just start with Xander, take the savings and free myself up a little bit. That's where I am with him. Aside from Xander, who's a little bit more expensive than everyone else, it would be Victor Hovland for me, whose tee to green play has just been so good. And this has been a course where putting hasn't mattered a ton, which is probably exactly what Victor Hovland needs. Yeah, I think that's kind of where I'm at to you. I like lineups that start with Xander and Hovland because I see a path to both of them doing really well. And it gives me less exposure to bad tiers. And I think that's a thing that I'm valuing. So, and I can also get back up to a guy like Lockheed even at 10,000, which I think is really intriguing. So that's a strategy I'll be taking for sure. And I think that it is a plus strategy for this week. And I'd agree in the ranking there, where Xander needs to be number one, Hovland number two. Whose odds have shifted since things opened? And everything's shifted effectively, but who has been the most interesting? I think that Patrick Cantley went from co-favorite with Justin Thomas at 12 to one to 15 to one is noteworthy. Brooks fell from 14 to 16. Hedecki from 14 to 17. Patrick Reed from 35 to 40 is interesting. I think he's a good fan to play this week. I think that he actually shows a lot of expected value in my win simulation. So I think as an outright bet, he makes sense. Walkie Neiman fell from 40 to 45. Matthew Fitzpatrick all the way from 50 to 65 is interesting. He's viable on Fandall. And I think, I mean, I'm not there with Fitzpatrick where I want to bet him for an outright, but whatever the top 10 number ends up being on him is probably going to be pretty interesting. Matthew Wolf from 60 to 75, same as Cameron Champ, who actually, we haven't mentioned this, leads the field in distance over the past 50 rounds. Jason Day fell from, or he's down to 85 from 75. Corey Connors from 80 to 90. Harold Varner shortened from 100 to 90. And Ben On, Byung Hun On shortened from 80 to 75. There's a name I haven't heard in a minute. I have a defunct, I hope, master's ticket on Byung Hun On for the COVID-19 layout. I'm hoping the DJ1 is still active. I have not checked the rules at Caesars, but we'll open the Ben On one may have gotten canceled. But I think that him shortening is interesting. On has good history at this course. And I'm guessing that's probably what's dragging things down because I personally haven't seen a whole lot in him since the end of the COVID-19 layoff to draw me back in. Are you in on Byung Hun On? So with On, we know what he is. It is a great tea-to-green player without putting. Some of the stuff he tweets about his putting is, he's very self-aware. Oh yeah, he knows. But if we can de-emphasize putting a little bit, it's noteworthy. I just, I'm done loading up on Byung Hun On and I'm done trying to justify betting him out, right? Because sure, is he good enough to win a PG Tour event? Yeah, absolutely. Are you going to predict it? Probably not. Especially when he, I mean, there's stroke-skinned putting as the past five, positive 0.7, negative 6.3, negative 3.3, negative 9.2. Oh my gosh. What a gem. I just wish he could correct that one thing. He had a negative 6 in there, 2 before that, negative 7.2. I mean, you just, you take yourself out of it, no matter how good you are tea-to-green. I desperately hope our boy figures this out. He's going to win this week. Our beautiful boy. If he does, I'll still be happy. He's one of the few guys where like, you know, if I'm not on him and he wins, I'll be happy. Kind of like Luke List back in the day. But, you know, I would prefer if he wanted my rosters, but he's probably not going to be there this week. Which lower-salary golfers have odds that stand out to you? There's not a ton. The only golfer with odds better than 100-to-1 in below 9,000 on Fandos, Maverick, McNeely at 75-to-1 in 8,900. So, I mean, he's a really good putter, but other than that, not really in on Maverick, McNeely. Brent Snedeker, Matt Wallace, Brandon Steele, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Mackenzie Hughes are all 100-to-1. Max Homa is 110, same as Ryan Armour. None of those names really make me feel excited for this week. I think Max Homa is interesting. I think Homa is interesting. I don't mind Brandon Steele. I am not in on Maverick McNeely. I don't think anybody else does anything for me at all. As far as, you know, Fandal plays go, there are a few golfers I'm willing to take a chance on. But I might as well save an extra 800. Yeah, so I really think a balanced lineup is the right way to go this week, or I'm going to experiment, like I said, with one punt play because there are two golfers at 8,000 or below. I talk about a lot of time, Carlos Ortiz and Sebastian Munoz. Tee to green, I think that they make a lot of sense to take a chance on. And if they make the cut and you hit on the other five, I think it's a really high upside lineup. But I think a balanced lineup is the way to go, which is very different than what we recommended last week. Yeah, and the two I'm looking at most are, or three, I guess, are Munoz, No, and Tringale. So also have options down there that I'm at least interested in exploring, too. Weather for this weekend, nothing too bad. Chance of rain Friday in the afternoon with the winds increasing to around 8 miles per hour, so nothing big. The odds of rain only about 25% right now. So I check back on that Wednesday to see if it will affect the plan Friday. The wind will get a bit elevated on Saturday, but not high enough where you need to take a look at wind splits. And on Sunday, another chance of rain in the later afternoon. So we could get wet a bit this weekend. But as of now, there are no definitive takeaways from a weather perspective. No need to stack tea times or anything. So check back on the forecast on Wednesday night and see if things have changed in that regard. Let's move on to our player picks for the Workday Charity Open. Brandon, who is standing out most to you in the upper salary tier? I'll stick with Patrick Cantlay, who did open, or at least when I first looked, was a co-favorite with Justin Thomas at 12 to 1. I thought that made sense, but Cantlay lengthened. So I think that maybe that means people will just play Justin Thomas over Cantlay. Although Cantlay's great form here is probably gonna keep him in the mix toward the top of the draft percentage board. But Cantlay is just one of those golfers who's above average in all four strokes, gain stats. He's been really good at Muir Field. That's why we talked about him at the top of the show. 35th, fourth, and first in his three tries. He's third in my stats only model. He's fourth in my wind simulations, which makes it seem like why do I prefer him? It's more, I love the fit and I love the stats for Cantlay and the price being a little bit cheaper than what we get with Justin Thomas. So really the only concern is that he came back and was carried by his putter. But again, I'm trusting long-term samples and very few golfers specifically in this field have a better claim to great long-term form than Patrick Cantlay does. I think the one guy who could have that is maybe Justin Thomas. Let's talk about him. My favorite high salary guy, Thomas lost 2.8 strokes in approach in his most recent events. That's a concern, but as mentioned, we shouldn't care too much about a single event and Thomas was awesome before that. In the two events post COVID-19 before that one bad event, Thomas had gained a combined 13.4 strokes to a degree and a 10.9 in approach. Really good numbers. And those were in events where his distance didn't matter as much. And I think it does this week. He's 10th in the field and distance the past 50 rounds, first in approach, 13th in scrambling. So yeah, Ben Grasse is the worst putting server for Thomas, but he's still neutral there. So I'm gonna put him at the top of my list this week right above Patrick Cantlay. Brandon, any final thoughts for you on those big five for this week? I really don't mind any of them. I'm fine if you prefer Justin Thomas. He's a very easy justification. I just think that Patrick Cantlay stands out a little bit more to me. Okay. Who stands out to you else in the, I guess the second tier maybe we'll phrase that. Yeah. So I think that Xander Schoffelay at 11-2 is my favorite play of the week. He's just another one of these golfers who does really everything well, tee to green and on the greens. No golfer's better when I kind of weight things in my stats only model. I'm at 5.4% likely to win, which is third just behind Justin Thomas and John Rom. I've got nothing against those two or Cantlay or Brooks or Hideki, like I said, but Xander's cheaper. We're getting him on a great putting service for him on Bentgrass. He very easily can win. And for how good he's been, he statistically should have won by now. And I think that this week is potentially his week. And I think that if you look at the stats profile of Xander, it's really hard to get more balanced than he is. You mentioned he does everything well. That's true. There's really no one else in this field who is as balanced as him. So I agree that he is worth prioritizing this week, even though I do like guys like JT, like Cantlay. I will have them together with Xander at times, but I also want to make sure I have balance lineups as you alluded to. Another guy who fits well in that balance lineup is Victor Hovland, because we've always kind of assumed that Hovland's short game struggles are a fixed negative that will not change, but might not entirely be true because it is a super, super small sample, just 25 rounds. But Hovland is actually slightly above average as a putter on Bentgrass. Not a big enough sample to draw conclusions, but it's enough to be noteworthy and it's better to be positive in a small sample than negative, I guess. And it's especially true with how unreal the ball striking has been for Hovland. He has gained at least 5.7 strokes T to green in every event since the end of the COVID-19 layoff and he's been at 9.6 or higher in two straight events. So if Hovland doesn't totally tank with the putter, which the data says is possible, he should pay off again at 10.9. So I'm going back on Hovland once again this week. Brandon, any additional thoughts for you on Victor Hovland at 10.9? I love him. I think that a Hovland-Zander start is probably, if I'm building one lineup, it's probably gonna be that. I wanted to double check this, but yeah. So Hovland led T to green last week and at the travelers, which makes it too straight where he's led T to green. Just the putting has been bad. If we de-emphasize putting a little bit, it's really easy to like Victor Hovland. So look, we've talked about the top five and how we feel about them, but if you try to roster one or two of those golfers, you really have to be willing to spend down. I don't think that's the right play for your primary lineup this week. So I'm gonna take the savings and just tell you straight up, I'm gonna play Zander and Hovland in our head-to-head lineup. I'm gonna tell you straight up, I'm probably gonna block you with Zander, but I'm gonna have a different construction. So Zander's just gonna be a watch this week. It's just how it's gonna be. Let's move down to the middle tier on Fanduul. Who stands out to you for this weekend? This is a, I mean, even this tier, I start to feel, like the low 10,000 is a range we really didn't discuss a ton with more Kawa 10-6. I think he's fine for a bounce back. Patrick Reed, I said, I like Sung Jae, very easy to justify as a bounce back, but it gets a little iffy. And so maybe you could say like, why would I want to build a bounce lineup around a lot of these golfers? The difference between some of these golfers and what you get in the 8,000 range is very, very different. So that's kind of where I am, but Adam Hadwin at 99, I think, makes a lot of sense. He's 17th in putting over a 100-round sample in Bentgrass, 19th over the past 50 rounds and Strokes gain approach. Can't really argue with that. He's been good on par fours. The, I think he's just, he had a good showing last week. And again, the balanced lineup is really where I want to go. So I will say I prefer your first mid-priced golfer, but Hadwin is potentially going to be a mainstay of my lineups because of the balance that he brings. Yeah, the only reason that I went with walking Neiman over Adam Hadwin is that again, I'm emphasizing distance this week. Hadwin doesn't have that, but he's not going to be a cross-off for me because I mentioned like you can win in multiple ways here. So Hadwin is someone I like. I just like Neiman a bit more. So I do think that I want to go with some balanced lineups as you alluded to, maybe a Xander Havlin start. And when I do that, that's going to allow me to get back up into this tier and go with someone like Neiman. And Neiman finally gets back on Bentgrass, which is his only non-terrible surface. He's actually pretty solid on Bentgrass too. He's gained at least 1.9 strokes in approach in all three events since the end of the COVID-19 layoff that pushes him up to 14th in the field and approached the past 50 rounds per Fantasy National. He is also 23rd in distance. So checks a lot of boxes statistically. He has played here before. He's played well here before each of the past two seasons. So Neiman fits everything that I want. He's the last guy for me outside of maybe Gary Woodland before things fall off a significant amount. And I'll put Hadwin in there too, but I think that Neiman is kind of the end of a tier to me. Is that kind of how you're viewing him too? Yeah, so I think you have like really, I can kind of say the top seven for me this week. And then there's the tier of the few golfers I'd be okay with in the mid to low 10,000s, like more Kaur Reed, Sung Jae, Neiman, Hadwin, Woodland, and then it's a bump down. So I kind of view it as like two larger tiers this week toward the top and then it drops off a ton. So I think we're in agreement if I understand you right. And I just twain around more like, I don't really know if I want to go below 9,000 in my like cash game lineups. Like I don't know if I do either, but the problem is there aren't a ton of guys in the 9,000s I like either. So no matter what I do, I'll be in a tier I don't like. And that's very uncomfortable. Like cash game rosters are uncomfortable for this week. Unless you, I mean, you could probably just hover right around that 10,000 range, do your best with. I mean, if you're okay with like Fitzpatrick at 9,7. But if you do like Woodland, Hadwin, Neiman, Leishman, who we didn't talk about. Scroll to 10,2. Click every name from 10,2 to 9,8 or whatever and just use those six guys. Oh, that includes beef. Just kidding, don't do that. It's not, it's not terrible. It could be terrible, but. Well, anything could be terrible, but. If you don't do that, you're gonna have to spend down on someone like my second mid-price golfer and that's Joel Damon. All right, take it away. I mean, I'd love to spend down for Joel Damon. What do you mean? $9,300, Hadwin missed the cut in 2020, the calendar year, not the season. So I'm sure he's gonna miss this, but that's eight straight events where he's played the weekend with six top 20 finishes. That's pretty nuts for $9,300. Is he a good putter? Absolutely not. He's gained strokes, putting in only three of those eight made cuts, but he's gained off the tee in each of them. And with approach in seven of the eight, he's lost strokes tee to green only once out of those eight finishes. When he finished 55th at the Farmers back in January, we always are targeting ball strikers who can't putt. That's who Joel Damon is, but he's been doing exactly what that archetype of golfer should be able to do. And that's be really good tee to green and make the cut because you're so good tee to green. And if you make putts, you can finish top 20. If you don't, you're gonna finish like 40th and not ruin a lineup. So I think Joel Damon is fine. I think that there are a few interesting names in this low 9,000 range, but if you don't click on all those golfers between like 97 and 10-4, you're gonna be down here for at least one golfer. Yeah. And most likely two or three. Yep, it's unfortunate. But I think that there are two guys who I, there are a couple of guys I don't mind. One of them is Damon, one of them is Corey Connors. Connors is a disaster on bentgrass, total disaster. But you've been less of a disaster recently. It's not his worst surface. So I can justify him at least $2,200. Connors, I think the big reason is the same things you discussed for Damon is that he is a stud on approach still. He has gained at least 2.4 strokes in approach in all three events since the resumption of play. And that is even though he missed the cut in one of those, meaning the sample is just two rounds. Still gained at least 2.4 strokes in approach in that one. The two events where he has made the cuts, Connors has finished 21st in 19th. He has enough distance to grade out well for this course too and for my process. So $9,200, you just take on some concerns for sure. But I'm willing to risk it a bit on Connors here. And I think that he and Damon are the guys who stand out most to me down here. I'm still not in on Jason Cochrak who you had mentioned before. But I think that Harold Barnard III is a third option down here. So maybe I think my distaste is with the like 93 or 94 to 98 range. That's the range I think I dislike the most in this field. But I think with HV3, Connors and Damon, you've got at least decent options down here. Yeah, I think that they're gonna be keys if they make the cut and you get like three tier two or above studs, that's a pretty high upside lineup. Because if these guys are making the cut, they can do a lot of damage. So Damon Connors, Varner, look, Cochrak despite having pocket aces, pocket kinks and pocket queens. Again, if he's gonna cheat, he should cheat better and help me when I use him in DFS. Yeah, I don't think I'm there. I don't wanna gloss over Scotty Schaeffler entirely at 95. I wanna trust the longer sample with him, which is really good, Tita Green. And then there's still Cameron Shamp who's in play for like an upside type of lineup. But I think if you're in the 9,000s overall, below 99, let's clarify, you might as well just jump the whole way down. I agree. So let's move down to the value tier now. Who stands out to you at $9,000 and below? I think you put this one in here for me because he's your boy, but Ian Poulter. No, no, no, no, no, stop it, no. No, I'm putting my foot down, no. $9,000, really good short game. I 30th and around the green, 11th and putting over the past 50 rounds. It keeps him in play like most weeks. And I think that's something that we'll have to kind of bump up if we wanna justify Ian Poulter. But I just really don't like this cheaper range much at all. He's only 68th in approach. His solid win odds for the price and that's really kind of why I'm, you know, there are solid win odds in my simulations. Let's clarify, he's 150 to one on Fando Sportsbook, but for the price, he stands out a little bit from everyone else, like solid cut odds. In a cash game, again, probably not going below 9,000 unless I really talk myself into like, Sebastian Munoz or Carlos Ortiz. Don't know if I'll get there. So I might get myself a floor of 9,000 in a cash game. I don't think I will. The reason that I'm not on Poulter is the distance. I didn't want to justify anything. Again, I just dislike the upper 9,000 range. So I'm okay going down here and like giving myself the ability to get back into like the 10,000 range more often. So that's why I probably will go below 9,000. I don't feel great about it, but like, you know, gonna be here. So the reason I'm not on Poulter is that I'm emphasizing distance, which makes it a bit hypocritical to talk of a Miliana Grillo, but let's talk about a Miliana Grillo because hey, it's a bank grass week. So we're back on a Miliana Grillo because it's the only surface where he's not a total dud. He's actually a plus on the surface. And that's in addition to the other things that normally draws to Grillo. He is fourth in the field and the Proats have passed 50 rounds, gained 4.7 on approach at the Travelers just a few weeks ago. So he's not super long off the tee, but not a wet noodle, I guess. He's 89th in distance, 11th in fairways gains. That's good. So he's $8,700. I think that Grillo makes sense to me this weekend. Brandon, is there enough here for you to buy into Grillo too or is it just me? So here's the thing. I don't think you can play a Miliana Grillo in a cash game. And I don't think like... I wasn't going to. These aren't cash game recommendations. Yeah, but OK. So these are people I'm going to use this week. We need to clarify, though, because like I think that especially if you're new to PGA DFS, you are like a common question is like, who's the $7,500 cut maker? And it's like they don't exist. Like some of these guys are going to make the cut, but that one who's guaranteed to make the cut is not out there. Grillo at least is first in the field and opportunities gained, which is a fantasy national stat for birdie chances. When he's 98th in birdie, a better rate gained because he doesn't, he can't putt. So I mean, yeah, you can only really play him on bank grass. So I think he makes sense, but just be ready to have those Grillo lineups at a commission. I mean, like that's that's a risk for literally anyone when only at 65 out of 155 make it, though. Yeah. So if you're going to if you're going to chance it for a non cash game, sure, take take a stab on Grillo. It's not even a stab, though. I think that he is going to be like a guy I rotated decently often in this value range. That's why I'm writing him up. It's not because I think he's the cash gameplay. It's because I will use him more than a lot of guys for tournaments. I mean, I'd rather, I'd rather play Sebastian Munoz at 8000. I think Munoz is an option for cash games. I will say that. I think he's got a little upside in him as well. He's another really good all around player. He's my second love price pick at 8000. All he doesn't do well really is around the green play, which I am factoring in this week, but it's never the most important thing. He's 34th in the field and strokes can approach her in the past 50 rounds. Can't really ask much more than that from someone at 8000. He's eighth in opportunities gained. Let me try to check and see what his conversion is. Well, his putting is not bad. So he probably converts seasonally off. 22nd. Yeah. So he's got better cut odds and top 10 odds in my simulations than Grillo. So I'd rather just play Sebastian Munoz and save $700. I mean, that's fine. I like Munoz too. I won't fight you. So like, okay, by this justification, if there is anyone I like more, so like, I can't, I'm not going to talk about Patrick Cantlay or Justin Thomas because I like Xander Shafley. Why not just take the savings and F those guys? I'm never going to talk about them. I mean, you know what the difference is, you know? No, it's like, no, there's no difference. We're at a time to make the cut. No. I don't think you'd load up on those guys. I'm not loading up on anybody in this tier. Right. I'm going to have more of a Grillo than most golfers in this tier. Sure. Uh-huh. Let me Carlos Ortiz and save me $1,100. I can't even find Carlos Ortiz in my sheet. $1,600. Okay, that's fine. Ah, that's fine. That's fine. You're just boring, you know? Live your life. Be transparent. Be transparent. Carlos Ortiz, 90 second in opportunities game, but 29th in birdies game, which is not necessarily what you want to see either. Yep, got to cross him off. Yep. Let's load up and make a Miliano Grillo a core play. Fringe core, yeah. Porque no. Why not? Let's do it. My other value play for this week is Brendan Steele. Steele is not good on bank grass. And his sixth place finish a few weeks ago is fully unsustainable because it was fueled by putting, but other stats make him interesting. He fits what I want off the tee, whether you emphasize distance or accuracy. 47th in distance, 43rd in fairways game to pass 50 rounds. That's in addition to ranking 40th in approach. And he can have pop weeks there. So he's gained at least 2.8 on approach in three of eight events since January 1st. He's gained at least 4.8 twice. So again, not a cash game play. I think I might honestly just go Munoz in a cash game, but I do like the upside he brings for tournaments. So what do you think? He's probably gonna be top 10 or miss the cut similar to Grillo. Yeah. I don't really have any interest in using him. The difficulty in projecting and predicting these golfers below 9,000 just makes me not interested. Okay, but don't use them. Yeah, like, yes, some of these guys are gonna finish top 10, but the amount of times where it's, I mean, I don't know Grillo is not very significant. So I think I'm just gonna elevate my floor, make my cutoff 9,000 pretty harshly, aside from Munoz, Ortiz, Ryan Palmer maybe. I think that's where I am. Okay, I'm okay jumping down there. Again, I think that Munoz is an option for cash games. If you need like a cheap guy to give you a lot of flexibility, I'm okay with that. Do you wanna use Grillo in our head to head? No. Okay. I said he's not a cash game player. That's a cash game. I thought maybe it'd be like emotional enough to stand behind it and say yes. No, I'm not giving out dumb plays. I'm giving out what I'm doing and I'm gonna have more Grillo than most people below 9,000 dollars. Like that's just what it is. I'll probably have more steel too. I think the issue here is that we have to talk about golfers below 9,000. So yeah, Grillo has one of the better cases to be made. Nope, nope, nope, just not there. Nope, nope, nope, we're good. I still think he's outside the top three below 9,000 and the amount of golfers I'll have and the amount of exposure I'll have to this range, probably not that high. So I'm just not gonna use a lot of him in Grillo and I don't wanna talk him up like, I think he's the cut maker cause. I think he's gonna make the cut. How about this? Grillo, you said he's about even odds or 40%, right? Yeah. Give me plus one 10 on Grillo to make the cut. No, give me Grillo versus Munoz, head to head, Fandall points. Sure. All right. But I did mention that rather of Munoz in a cash game, so. I can't, I don't know which one for me. I'm not doing odds cause we just do cumulative bets. Yeah. Um, okay. Other guys I like who are like in the Munoz tier. You mentioned Ortiz, that's fine. Any interest in Sung you'll know or Cameron Trangali? So Sung you'll know. His fantasy national stats are digging back from before his mandatory military service. So I wouldn't put a lot of emphasis on those. But his approach numbers the past two events have been decent and he could be one of those dudes who like perks back up with a layoff. That was kind of my thought process there. Whereas Trangali it's more so just the ball striking is really good and he's $8,200. Trangali is probably fine. I'm trying to pull up Sung you'll knows player page here because the approach numbers have been fine but off the tee play, okay. I think he's like a, I know he finished 11th at the travelers but I think. I'm not looking at the finish, like that's not. I think realistically his like what you should expect like as a best case is like 40th. So I'm not. How about Cameron Trangali against Munoz? That way we're jumping down and I'm not taking Grillo who is 87. Whereas I'm getting Trangali who's 82 which is more comparable to Munoz. I feel like you should, I can tell you're like you shouldn't be trying to be fair. You should be trying to win that bet. So. Okay, fine. Then just give me Grillo. Do you prefer Trangali to Grillo straight up? No, I'm just trying to make it a more even bet. I feel like, I think that's not it. But. Okay, then give me Grillo then. So I have Grillo Munoz fan dual points, correct? Yeah. And I beat you last week on Lonto versus Koby. Who won the head to head? You did. Oh yeah, weird. So I think that matters. The only thing that matters is the thing that I do well in that given week. That is statistically how things work. This is just science, I'm sorry. Win picks for this week. I won the bobble hat because Brandon is trash. So we're gonna do one golfer, anyone you want. I'm not crossing out of anybody. And then one who is, let me see here. Let's make the cutoff 60 to one or longer in the Lop-Off of Woodland. I get to pick first, so I'm gonna go JT. I'm just gonna keep with the guy I committed to earlier in the podcast. I will take then, I think Schaeffler's interesting, but I will go with someone I glossed over but did mention I was fine with, especially in a balanced build, Matthew Fitzpatrick, he's 65 to one. Someone picked this Matthew Fitzpatrick from this podcast and it was not me. That might be the first? Yeah, I'm not usually a huge Fitzpatrick fella, but. A Fitzfella? Yeah, I'm not much of a Fitzfella, but. All right, I'm gonna go, it's between two guys. Let's go Joel Damon. Did not expect that. Let's have fun, let's party. Who do you want for your upper person? Xander. So you have Xander and Mattie Fitz, I have JT and Joel Damon. JT. What? JD. What? I didn't say D, I said T. Oh, JD, Joel Damon, okay, whew, a little slow there. Okay, so we have the head to head, which is Munoz versus Grillo. I have Grillo, you have Munoz. I have JT and Damon. You have Xander and. Mattie Fitz. Mattie Fitzpatrick. I have to talk through all these, cause we're way too much going on this weekend. And we have our head to head, which I will win for the third straight week. I'm very excited to do so. Any final thoughts for you Brandon, before we close off Shopper today? If you do win for a third time in a row, you will be down only four. Probably because I've used Grillo in our head to heads. Yeah, probably. Final thoughts. I really think that there are a few, very, very few interesting value plays. I think that the right way to play this one this week is to find balance, really try to get that six out of six, which should be the goal anyway, but I think sometimes we get a little caught up in our confidence and ability to hit on value plays. And yes, value plays will be toward the top of the leaderboard that happens every week, but there are a hundred value plays. Some of them are gonna be there. You don't wanna get too confident. So I think balance is the right play this week as opposed to last week. I just finished our head to head. Cameron Tringale's in it, man. I know you're not gonna use him so I can tell you this outright. Yeah, I'm not. Cameron Tringale gonna win me the bobble hat this week. I think he's cash game viable. Let's roll, baby. Let's go. What could go wrong with Cameron Tringale at $8,200 in cash? I think that it's a week where you want to vary your roster construction. Go with the line as we discussed where you go JT by himself, Cantlay by himself, JT Cantlay, go Xander, go Xander Hovland. I think that it's a good week to vary your roster construction and play things that way in order to differentiate your lineups when you're multi-engine for tournaments. I might not recommend playing cash games this week because I think all cash game lineups are terrible or the ones that I was smelling out during the show so maybe just don't play cash this week. At least maybe that's just me but I think it should be a fun weekend. And again, next week will be fun too because it's at the exact same course. Maybe we can learn something, find some bilos. We'll talk about that again next week. That is all that we have for today. I wanna thank you all for tuning in, Brandon. If people have questions for you on Twitter or want to mock you after Miliana Grillo wins, where can they find you there? I'm at Gadoula13, GDULA13. And I'm at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fan to a Podcast network at Fan to a Podcast. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer front of the video inside of things here today. Thank you, Cal, as always. And thank you to everyone for tuning in. Hopefully your golf lumps go well. Hopefully Grillo makes a cut and hopefully I get to glow a little bit on Tuesday. We'll talk to you then. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire.