 What's up guys, this is Alex from Xtrade, back to you with another weekly trade ideas list and index overview. Today we're going to be going into some technical analysis on the top five setups for the week. Last week, it was just insane. I literally forgot we had a CPI report, so there's that. So we did cover the FOMC meeting, gave a heads up on that and the Triple Witching Day, which was on Friday, but I totally forgot that we had the CPI reading as well on Tuesday, so that made the week even more interesting. We had some great put setups, Netflix probably being my number one, honestly. If y'all are able to catch that, I mean, probably got some amazing returns, so make sure you go back, review that, get some educational value out of it. Let's go ahead and get into our first setup here. So we're looking at Oxy here, this is oil and gas, obviously, so this is going to be part of the energy sector. You can see we got a clear trend line, uptrend line, we got test one, test two. This is test three, while also touching the 200 EMA on the daily time frame. So this could be good for calls, I'm really looking forward to curl up about here. Maybe reclaim back over that 62.77 and head up into 65.76, so that could be your short term price target, if you can get over that, make a base, go higher, obviously you can shoot for the stars. But yeah, I really like this one. Another thing with this trend line, if it did decide, let's say energy just wanted to crap the bed for some reason. You could wait for the, oops, you could wait for it to break the trend line, and once you get the confirmed trend line break, you can maybe look at puts, only if it flushed the trend line. It probably had back to that support, if it did. But otherwise, we have that confirmed candle holding up here, give the 200 EMA support. Your next area of confirmation would be that 62.77 getting broke over, reclaiming and heading back up to 65. So hopefully, we can see some bids at the energy sector, maybe see some strength despite the market weakness. So yeah, keep an eye out for that, watch crude oil futures, maybe look at natural gas and stuff. And yeah, let's try and save, you know, always overconfirmation, as I always say. So our next one, we're going into Meta here. So this is originally Facebook, obviously. I really like this one because it did show relative strength on Friday. So it was lagging to the downside with the rest of the market. You got like QQQ and the Spy, obviously they were down way more. Meta was up on an upgrade from JP Morgan, I believe. And it still had that reaction to supply that bears will look for. So despite having relative strength, I feel like this confirmation candle off supply can give it a moving back down to demand. We're probably trying to curl up about there. So yeah, this is a put setup I'm looking at. Obviously, you do have this like uptrend mind you can probably worry about. If you wanted to come back down, it could even be forming like an ascending triangle. If you don't know what ascending triangle it is, it makes, you know, higher lows, higher highs with a flat top resistance and then eventually, you know, breaks out back test and breaks out some more. So it's a bullish pattern just unconfirmed right now. You do have this multiple top reaction to supply and a nice candle to confirm. Maybe that, you know, sellers stayed in control at this level and it will head back down to demand. So yeah, looking at puts on that. This is another put week it looks like even though the seasonality is pointing towards, you know, a rally for the rest of the year. I still want to be cautious just after that Fed meeting. I was pretty hawkish. You know, there wasn't really any confirmation of talking about rate cuts anytime soon or anything that would really stimulate the stock market on bullish sentiment. So yeah, I'm going to be playing careful again. Maybe look for a trend to get established just because all that money expiring on Friday for the options expiry. I mean, it could free up a lot of capital and all the news is out of the way. It could give us a chance to see some stability. But who knows after the FOMC meeting, it's just not looking promising for the rest of the year. But we'll have to see. So yeah, oxy looking at calls meta looking at puts going to aim at here. So what do we got? We got a, it looks like it broke out of a pennant fake breakout coming back down. Now breaking below the uptrend line. So this is a pennant fake out obviously. And now it's breaking down with the exception of holding up this 200 EMA support. Maybe we want to see it flush back down to this little pivot. So it's like $100 even. So I can be like, you know, about four points to the downside. It'll also meet up with this 50 EMA. So that could be a price target as well. If it wants to flush below this 200 EMA. So you want to see it getting under the 200 EMA also staying under the uptrend line. And I'm also seeing this MACD stay in the sec negative signal, seeing the KDJ staying a negative signal, etc. But yeah, this looks like another good put set up. You just want to be careful. Wait for it to flush the 200 EMA maybe short term. Look for that confirmed selling at the cash open. And make sure you are getting the confirmation that you need to know that you got a good entry. But yeah, I mean, if you zoom in a little bit, it looks like it, you know, already got a little pop and back test rejected. The sellers were just showing that push down up until the close. So that could be your back test confirmed. Yeah, it could have lowered down to the 100s. So we're going to put on that. So oxy calls, meta puts, AMAP puts. Next, we're going to JD. So JD is actually more of a weekly timeframe set up that I found if you zoom out, go to the weekly timeframe, you got test one, test two. This is test three, had a little short term fake out breakout. Now pushing back into the trend line for a third test, which is honestly makes total sense because the third test is usually always the one that establishes the trend. So you see a sell off for a little bit, maybe have a fourth, fifth, sixth test. It just depends before breaking out. But right now it's in the third. So you're still early or you could still be early. I can't really speculate if you are early. But for this, you'll be looking for a move down to this pivot low, said a 54, 68. So probably flush down there, try to crop about there. You're going to see that break first, obviously. If you want to shoot for a lower price target, this would be more like a short term day trade because it's so close to support. If it does want to break that, you know, it would head to the 50 EMA area where you see right here. So that's a 50 EMA. You can use that as a price target as well. If you want to shoot for more than just 54, 68. So yeah, another put set up. I showed you the weekly timeframe. You do have the MACD crossing to the downside on the one day. KDJ is negative. So and also you can see it's actually getting under the 200 EMA. So we just set this back a little bit, but a visual order send it back. You can see, I mean, it's breaking the 200 EMA, which is right here. Okay, be a good one for puts. Watch the Hong Kong index. You know, they trade in a different time zone. So last week we were watching FXI for that rising wedge breakdown. It did break down. So that could help, you know, maybe other large caps break down as well. Just remember that, you know, these do have like lots of big gaps because of the time zone difference. So sometimes they'll have different cash opens. So yeah, just be mindful of that. Also be mindful of China's political nature. Know there's a lot of bull crap going on for that. So trade safe on that one. Next we'll go into LVS. So LVS has a clear uptrend line breaking here. You got a negative MACD signal to the downside. If we zoom out here, you do have peak resistance right here. And you can see us that 4827. So it did try to break out multiple times out of that. Was not able to, was not able to hold the uptrend line, thus giving you maybe a quick flush right here. You have a little bit of volume increasing. Nothing like too significant. You could see a flush down to this pit at first at 4633. And if that breaks, you know, you can see one down to the next one below, which is 4556. If you want to see those break, you do have even more room down to this little demand area. So that demand area is right here. What is that, like 4435. So this is a nice demand candle. I could probably put you lowest at that point, honestly, just because I don't know how it's going to react to demand. Demand zones are pretty strong, a little bit stronger than regular support, I think. Just because, you know, an imbalance happened in this area to lead to this huge upside. So you get to see how it reacts once it gets down here before trying to aim lower. And you'll see me preach that in pretty much any set of my take that's heading into a demand zone. So 4633, good price target because you got this big bullish candle. And then 4556, another good price target because you get this bullish candle right here too. Just two levels to be mindful of. You're maybe day trade down into this. So we can trade, just get, you know, 60 to, you know, 30 to 60 days of expiration, let it deal with the support, see how it reacts to the support. If it seems like it wants to break, it can stay in. If you're getting good signals that, you know, it's holding up, you maybe want to get out. So yeah, really nice uptrend line break though. So we're looking at puts on that. So that's your four put setups, and then your one setup for calls on Oxy. Just going to see the energy sector go up, look at crude oil and all that for Oxy. I didn't want to just have like straight puts this week. I wanted another option, just in case, because of the seasonality, you know, it does share we rally up until the end of the year. So we'll go into that next. So we're going to go into the spy, the S&P 500 here. I usually go for the futures, but I mean, they're not even up or down that much right now. So, and I really wanted to show you guys this gap to this gap. This gap did get filled, and now it's heading into a demand zone. So honestly, spy bears, you need to be careful here. I took profit on my puts on Friday, I believe. I want to see how it reacts to this demand area first before reshorting, maybe get under the demand zone low. So bulls, you maybe have an argument for it to curl up here. Head back up to this key level. What is that at 3090? And then obviously you have your main high up here, which is at the four tens. If it even wanted to consider getting back up there, it had to get over 390 clearly, while also reclaiming your 50 EMA, while also reclaiming your 200 EMA, et cetera. Bears, if you want to see it go lower, obviously you're going to get it under demand zone low, back test, and then, you know, go lower. So you do have to be careful of this demand zone. In a bear market, sometimes they don't even get respected. So you do bears still do have the chance of it just flushing. I'm not seeing any major move in the futures right now. So obviously there's not too much fear yet, but I mean, it's still early. So no clear setup on this bulls. You do have that one argument for a counter trim reversal. So you can maybe day trade calls or something off this demand zone. Bears, you're going to be careful shorting down here to be honest. And I could be wrong, but I mean, all you can do is play, you know, the zone and play the levels. MACD is staying at a negative signal still. KDJ is still in a negative signal. You can see it gave a false buy signal over here. So sometimes the MACD is a little bit better. You can see it stayed in a buy signal for here longer, stayed in a sell signal still despite this, you know, ugly, a false buy signal. So just use indicators of caution, realize that they use, you know, lagging data and yeah, trade safe with them. Use it as an extra form of confirmation. And before we get into the QQQ, I am going to go into the S&P seasonality here. So our trading week is December 19th up to the 23rd. Merry Christmas. We also have a negative 0.03% return. So essentially in the last 72 midterm years here, we had a flat, essentially flat trading. So take it how you will. But I mean, maybe that's confirming that we're not going to go anywhere this week. It could be due to liquidity being low, people going out on holidays, Wall Street, you know, not partaking as much due to being away with their family, you know, who knows. But yeah, so you do have that to keep in mind. But the week after, I mean, it's just a straight shot for the seasonality to the upside. So we'll have to see, maybe it's a consolidation week. Like I said earlier, maybe you want to wait for a trend to get established, let that loosened up money from the Friday expiration, jump back in the game and, you know, let Wall Street hatch it out first, maybe before entering something. But I'm probably just going to be sticking to day trades again, mostly. I did have a couple of swing trades last week. Obviously they had 30 to 60 days expiration, at least per usual. And I was able to give those room and some pretty good ones. We're just going to let the market do what it does. Keep in mind the seasonality, obviously, so it could be flat. Also, realize that spies that demand, so you don't want to be maybe overly bearish yet. Maybe wait for that demand to unload or get taken out. So for QQQ, you can see it broke this rising wedge. Well, somewhat of a rising wedge. It broke the uptrend line, rejected off supply. Also broke this 278 main support. Once it broke that, I mean, really quick flush. This gap hasn't totally filled. So this could be, you know, it could be premature to say that, you know, it could have a counter turn reversal because it could still fill this gap, fill the rest of it, then head down demand and curl up about there. So QQQ bears, I think it looks better for you guys than it does for the spy. And if QQQ is not exactly aligning with the spy demand, that could bring, you know, that could bring the spy down lower with it, to be honest, because I mean, tech is pretty heavily weighted in the spy. So yeah, this QQQ gap doesn't make me feel great for the bulls. So maybe bears, you do have a good argument for a move down for puts down to this demand zone low, because this gap hasn't filled yet. So I keep that on watch. Bulls, obviously they would need to reclaim 278-78. And I mean, they have the 50 EMA and the way still 200 EMAs all the way up here. MACD signals negative, KDJ is negative. So I mean, it doesn't look great, but there is a big sell-in balance to fill here. So if QQQ get over 278, that could be good for you guys. For the bulls. So yeah, that's QQQ and spy. Next, we're going to the IWM. So this is the Russell 2000, AKA Small and Midcaps. So we have a main support here at 174-11. It looks like you could even draw a demand zone here. You got a demand candle. Honestly, it did flush below it. So not sure how reliable that would be. All the liquidity and all the orders have been filled and it's been through it. So maybe I won't draw that, but it is notable that it did close over the 174-11 low. It does have decent buy volume too. So it looks like, I mean, people try to bid it up and prop it up, you know, before the weekend. So maybe bulls do have an argument for a counter trim reversal here. Bulls, or I'm sorry, bears, obviously. If it opens up under 174-11, I mean, there's pretty good room back down for a flush. There's not really anything holding it up here. You do have a little demand zone here. You could even account this big one as a demand candle. So yeah, that could be why I propped up there because of this big demand candle. You can see the wick reaction and the push up due to touching this imbalance area. It was a pretty big imbalance area. Honestly, I don't know how to feel about shorting, but if you're not counting the demand, you do have that 168-19 low you could look at, which comes from over here. But yeah, I mean, this demand zone, I mean, really big imbalance candle that led to more upside. So I mean, that could be the reason why it did get propped up here. So yeah, I just want to see a whole 174-11 for the bulls open under and sell off from 174-11 for the bears. With that, I would say a max PT of 168-19 if you wanted to flush to the downside. Bulls your max PT. I could put you at like 177, the 50 EMA maybe, but that's about it. It's about as far as I can go for that. That's all your indexes for equities. Next, we're going to the VIX. This is the Volatility Index, AKA the Fear and Greed Index. So last week, so we're looking at 2263. It closed over that Friday and we were looking for it to be able to maybe continue higher head up into the 2022 average close. It did exactly that. Rejected right off the area and actually the VIX did this before the market even sold off. So the VIX was going up with stocks right before the CPI release, which is really strange. There's a lot of speculation that could have been from the VIX futures rolling over and the ES futures kind of having an effect on supply and demand for the VIX. So that could have resulted in more upside for the VIX. There's even a lot of people that have VIX calls. I was reading on Twitter and they weren't even getting any gains despite the VIX closing. What did that close up? 9.6%. So a huge move on the VIX going up with stocks, which just doesn't really happen that much, to be honest. Almost there's like a really big, implied volatility to be expected in the next 30 days, which the CPI print, I mean, if you think about it, it's pretty normal because I mean, it's just a huge expected volatility day. So yeah, it did reject right off the 2022 average close right off the 200 EMA, 50 EMA area and started heading back down to the 19th, which is pretty much expected. Because I mean, unless they like reclaimed over, then you could start saying that you know the VIX is going to go higher, market's going to start flushing super hard. If you see a big rejection candle like this, I mean, most people are going to expect the market to go up pretty high. And it did on CPI day, but it sold off right after the FOMC meeting. So Jerome Powell put us back in place. Honestly, I got a little bit more of like a neutral reading from Jerome Powell speaking because he wasn't really like shooting down the fact that they'll adjust if they have to, and maybe be able to cut rates or maybe change their terminal rate. Because a lot of people, they're looking for the terminal rate. They thought it'd be at 5%. The median ended up being at 5.1%. So I think that had a huge impact on equities and did indeed send them lower along with some other statements. You'd have to go back and watch a lot of it. There's a lot of good bits in that speech. So maybe go watch it and maybe read a little bit on macro. You don't have to know everything. You don't have to be an economist to understand what's going on. You know, just look at the basics. You know, go and listen to Jerome Powell's speech. A lot of times, I mean, the algorithms are just going to react off keywords. So crazy week, guys. I mean, just insane. With how low the market went, you'd think the VIX would be higher. Honestly, we're going to see this 2263 hold. And for me to be like even more bearish, I really want to see it get over the 2022 average close and start pricing in higher volatility. So I mean, this VIX close just doesn't screen to me. The markets are going to go too much lower in the short term. So I really like it to get it back over 2581 or just maybe these moving averages to show me that the market will be more bearish. For bulls, you want to get under, you know, 21s head back to the 19s and maybe try to curl up about there. So literally, we're in the same spot. We're in the same spot that we were last Friday. Because I mean, it closed that. What did it close at? Is that 2282? It closed at 2263. So it's not that different. If we go to the data, just so you can see that this average is legit, I type in all these manually. You can see after this week, it did bring the average down to 2581. So ever since I started doing these videos, I mean, it was up in the 26s. So I mean, it's dropped pretty nicely. But if you don't really understand what this is showing, I mean, this is what we've, this is what we've averaged all year. So when it's under, you can pretty much assume you're getting a pretty fair deal for implied volatility about 30 days up. If it's trading over, you could assume that, you know, premiums are very elevated. You might be getting ripped off. You know, they're going to be more expensive. Another good thing about the 2022 average closed, it's a good mean regression target. So if it gets up to 35 like such, you know, we were calling for a mean regression back down. We got that once it got to 19s, looking for a mean regression back up. You can get puts cheap down here, get, you know, calls are expensive, but you can get a good price for calls when it's elevated. So that's all we use it for, just a mean regression target. And, you know, once it hits the area, you know, kind of have to wait for it to, you know, start pricing in either, either over or you want to see a rejection. So yeah, that's the VIX. Same spot as last week. So pretty much same outlook as last week. And I see a holding head back up to the 2022 average for the bears. Bulls, you want to see head back down to 19. So that's pretty much your key level, just that 22.63. And I mean, maybe this 21.07 as well for bulls. If he wants to get under that, that'd be good. Next, we're going to the dollar. So this is the DXY dollar index, really just down channeling. Pretty much I was looking for a counter trend reversal off this trend line. And it did that. Now I'm going to see it head back up to, sorry, honestly, head back up to the trend line. We'll probably reject about there. So I'd say this looks good for, if you're bearish on stocks, just because this upper trend line hasn't been tested yet. So obviously if the dollar is higher, people get spooked. So this would be good. And you also have this 200 EMA here. So same thing as last week, basically, you want it to get over the 200 EMA, make a base. And bears also, if you're bearish stocks, you're also going to want to see a breakout. But yeah, this is still mid-range, so it hasn't reached the trend line yet. So I'd say the dollar still has some room to go up, to be honest, which could send stocks lower. But otherwise, I mean, we're just going to be waiting for Monday. We're going to see how it opens. You want to see like the first 15 minutes, but you know, see how the cash open is, see if there's sell programs, buy programs, see how the currencies open up. And yeah, otherwise, I hope you guys enjoyed this video. I'm going to go ahead and get it chopped up and send it out, get it uploaded for you guys, and start working on the written report. So if you don't know, you can go to the Watchlist channel on our Discord, and you can get a written report on these five setups. If you don't have time to watch the video, so make sure you check that out. I love you guys, trade safe, and always wait for confirmation.